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Player Spotlight: JaMarcus Russell (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: JaMarcus Russell, QB, Oakland Raiders

Player Page Link: JaMarcus Russell Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Well, this is really a roll of the dice projection. It's hard to know what kind of player we are going to see in Russell this year. I really like the weapons Oak has brought in to surround him with. Walker is going to bounce back IMO and McFadden will scare the daylights out of defenses no matter where he is lined up. The real question is with the Oline. I still see it as a bellow average group, but improving. Russell has mobility and maybe that will help. My biggest fear is that Russell wont really be able to take advantage of that cannon arm just yet.

239 completions, 410 attempts, 2337 yds, 14 TDs, 16 Ints

35 carries, 200 yds, 2 Tds

 
It'll be interesting to see how well Jamarcus Russell performs this season. He has talented receivers around him in Zach Miller, Ronald Curry, and Javon Walker (if healthy) and a running game to keep pressure off of him. It all comes down to what Russell can bring to the group. The good qb's in the NFL have a way of showing up sooner rather than later. If he's the real deal we should see some flashes this season.

 
It'll be interesting to see how well Jamarcus Russell performs this season. He has talented receivers around him in Zach Miller, Ronald Curry, and Javon Walker (if healthy) and a running game to keep pressure off of him. It all comes down to what Russell can bring to the group. The good qb's in the NFL have a way of showing up sooner rather than later. If he's the real deal we should see some flashes this season.
He has talented receivers around him in Zach Miller, Ronald Curry (if healthy), and Javon Walker (if healthy) and a running game to keep pressure off of him.FIXED

There is a real possibility Russell could be without both these guys. The Oakland offense could be real ugly (what's new) if this happens.

I'm a dynasty Russell owner. Currently, he's the only QB on my roster (keep 6). I'm more or less resigned to the fact I won't get great numbers from him this year and that I'll have to draft another QB or two to start for me. What I'm looking for this year are "flashes" to see if this kid looks like he'll be a player. If I see enough of those I'll be happy and more inclined to wait on the numbers. Dwayne Bowe is another kid I kept that didn't have and maybe won't have (this year) great numbers. But, he has "IT". I'm just hoping Russell does too. He certainly has a lot of tools.

Wild guess predictions:

220/385 2700 yards 18 TD's 22 INT's

40 carries 85 yards 2 TD's

 
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Russell is in his second year but this is basicly his first training camp. Its too early to predict how far he's come along. We know the talent is there.

The line has been shuffled a little again. It should be a little better with a couple new starters and more experience. Pass blocking needs to improve a good deal.

McFadden is a receiving threat out of the backfield. Miller and Higgins should improve and could become important weapons. Drew Carter is looking good and at this point looks like one starter. Walker and Curry, our most accomplished recievers, are both big question marks due to their health. Walker has a great history when it comes to working out so being out of shape isnt a big concern but his injury history is. We need at least one of Walker or Curry healthy. With a healthy Walker, Russell has a good, if not very good, group of receivers to work with. Without him, its a below average group.

With so many unknowns, its impossible to give a good prediction on how Russell will do. I expect Oakland to run a lot again but we could actually see more passing than last year.

 
JaMarcus Russell is an extraordinary athlete with outstanding strength and better than expected mobility. He was incredible in college at avoiding being sacked and making plays. I think that the year off was a great time for him to soak in all aspects of the postion. I think that he will have a good year and a very nice career. He is not a runner, but he uses his feet to avoid the sack and make plays. He did this at LSU and I expect it to resurface in 08.

He also seemed to be a fairly smart and efficient QB and I don't think that he will make as many rookie QB mistakes as you typically see,

Russell 285 comp on 495 att (57.6%) for 3300 yards (6.67 ypa) and 20 TDs with 11 ints. I'll add 120 yards rushing and 3 TDs

 
It'll be interesting to see how well Jamarcus Russell performs this season. He has talented receivers around him in Zach Miller, Ronald Curry, and Javon Walker (if healthy) and a running game to keep pressure off of him. It all comes down to what Russell can bring to the group. The good qb's in the NFL have a way of showing up sooner rather than later. If he's the real deal we should see some flashes this season.
He has talented receivers around him in Zach Miller, Ronald Curry (if healthy), and Javon Walker (if healthy) and a running game to keep pressure off of him.FIXED

There is a real possibility Russell could be without both these guys. The Oakland offense could be real ugly (what's new) if this happens.

I'm a dynasty Russell owner. Currently, he's the only QB on my roster (keep 6). I'm more or less resigned to the fact I won't get great numbers from him this year and that I'll have to draft another QB or two to start for me. What I'm looking for this year are "flashes" to see if this kid looks like he'll be a player. If I see enough of those I'll be happy and more inclined to wait on the numbers. Dwayne Bowe is another kid I kept that didn't have and maybe won't have (this year) great numbers. But, he has "IT". I'm just hoping Russell does too. He certainly has a lot of tools.

Wild guess predictions:

220/385 2700 yards 18 TD's 22 INT's

40 carries 85 yards 2 TD's
LSU fan? :lmao: I think JR will have a Culpepper-like career, at least starting out, and hopefully will maintain it a little longer. I think he's a better overall package than DC was.

My shot in the dark:

199/303 2850 yards 19 TDs 19 INTs

52 carries 111 yards 3 TDs

 
JaMarcus Russell's most surprising stat to me was that in the 4 appearances he had last season, he only rushed the ball 5 times, 2 of the games not rushing the ball once. Usually when we get a young athletic QB with some size, they're instinct is to tuck it if they don't see something and take off and go get some yards and of course a big hit.

I kind of like that JaMarcus didn't take off running, that'll help him stay healthier long term. The pool of games (only 4) is very small, so he could lead the league in QB rushing attempts this year but I don't expect that. What I do expect is to see more games like his last, some high percentage passes but also some growing pains along the way.

3200 yards passing, 15 Td's and 22 Int's with 80 yards rushing and 1 td

 
It'll be interesting to see how well Jamarcus Russell performs this season. He has talented receivers around him in Zach Miller, Ronald Curry, and Javon Walker (if healthy) and a running game to keep pressure off of him. It all comes down to what Russell can bring to the group. The good qb's in the NFL have a way of showing up sooner rather than later. If he's the real deal we should see some flashes this season.
He has talented receivers around him in Zach Miller, Ronald Curry (if healthy), and Javon Walker (if healthy) and a running game to keep pressure off of him.FIXED

There is a real possibility Russell could be without both these guys. The Oakland offense could be real ugly (what's new) if this happens.

I'm a dynasty Russell owner. Currently, he's the only QB on my roster (keep 6). I'm more or less resigned to the fact I won't get great numbers from him this year and that I'll have to draft another QB or two to start for me. What I'm looking for this year are "flashes" to see if this kid looks like he'll be a player. If I see enough of those I'll be happy and more inclined to wait on the numbers. Dwayne Bowe is another kid I kept that didn't have and maybe won't have (this year) great numbers. But, he has "IT". I'm just hoping Russell does too. He certainly has a lot of tools.

Wild guess predictions:

220/385 2700 yards 18 TD's 22 INT's

40 carries 85 yards 2 TD's
LSU fan? :hophead: I think JR will have a Culpepper-like career, at least starting out, and hopefully will maintain it a little longer. I think he's a better overall package than DC was.

My shot in the dark:

199/303 2850 yards 19 TDs 19 INTs

52 carries 111 yards 3 TDs
I'll be very surprised if he doesn't throw more INT's than he does Td's this season.
 
a more mobile and less talented Byron Leftwich.
Ouch. :fishing: He can't possibly be THAT bad. I hope. ( I have him )I agree with most that this will be a year of ups and downs for JR, with probably 1:1 TD/INT. I thinking roughly 3000/15/15. He needs alot of help at WR and OL to do much better IMO.
 
a more mobile and less talented Byron Leftwich.
This is an extremely uninformed opinion.
Care to explain?
Sure, the only similarity between the two is that they are both big and African American.Jamarcus has a quicker delivery, much better pocket presence, better accuracy and better touch on short passes. I'm not gonna make any bold predictions about his chance of success as he is still very raw and well, he is on the Raiders. But I hate the Leftwich comp. It's trash IMO and the result of latent stereotyping rather than any legit analysis.Leftwich = Kerry Collins, not Jamarcus.
 
a more mobile and less talented Byron Leftwich.
This is an extremely uninformed opinion.
Care to explain?
Sure, the only similarity between the two is that they are both big and African American.Jamarcus has a quicker delivery, much better pocket presence, better accuracy and better touch on short passes. I'm not gonna make any bold predictions about his chance of success as he is still very raw and well, he is on the Raiders. But I hate the Leftwich comp. It's trash IMO and the result of latent stereotyping rather than any legit analysis.Leftwich = Kerry Collins, not Jamarcus.
Thanks.I never watched JaMarcus in college so I had no idea how quick/slow his delivery is. All I know about Leftwich is his delivery is methodical and incredibly slow and he doesn't scramble. I know JaMarcus is no Vick but it was also my understanding he didn't run as much as some people seem to think. He rushed for less than 200 yards in college his Junior year. That seems to be a fairly close to Leftwich than people realize. Of course, Brady doesn't scramble much and he's a good qb so that isn't indicitive one way or the other.
 
I have never watched Leftwich much, but I would dare to say JR probably has a better arm (meaning longer distance). Jamarcus has a friggin' cannon arm. Any Leftwich advocates confirm/deny that statement?

 
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a more mobile and less talented Byron Leftwich.
This is an extremely uninformed opinion.
Care to explain?
Sure, the only similarity between the two is that they are both big and African American.Jamarcus has a quicker delivery, much better pocket presence, better accuracy and better touch on short passes. I'm not gonna make any bold predictions about his chance of success as he is still very raw and well, he is on the Raiders. But I hate the Leftwich comp. It's trash IMO and the result of latent stereotyping rather than any legit analysis.Leftwich = Kerry Collins, not Jamarcus.
Thanks.I never watched JaMarcus in college so I had no idea how quick/slow his delivery is. All I know about Leftwich is his delivery is methodical and incredibly slow and he doesn't scramble. I know JaMarcus is no Vick but it was also my understanding he didn't run as much as some people seem to think. He rushed for less than 200 yards in college his Junior year. That seems to be a fairly close to Leftwich than people realize. Of course, Brady doesn't scramble much and he's a good qb so that isn't indicitive one way or the other.
Russell isn't Vick, or a young McNabb. The best comparison, from a mobility standpoint, is Big Ben. Mobile, but looking to pass. Ben scrambles out of trouble, but doesn't tuck the ball and run, he still looks to pass. Russell has 'good' mobility, but I don't think QB runs will ever be a part of the gameplan for him. He is mobile enough to gain yards with his feet, but not enough to consider it one of his 'weapons'. Which, in my opinion, is perfect. QBs that run a lot get hurt too much, IMO. As for the talent statement, Russell doesn't have the slow release, or the dramatic lack of foot speed of Leftwich. He may not ever be a franchise QB, but calling him less talented than Lefty at this point is.....puzzling.
 
a more mobile and less talented Byron Leftwich.
This is an extremely uninformed opinion.
Care to explain?
Sure, the only similarity between the two is that they are both big and African American.Jamarcus has a quicker delivery, much better pocket presence, better accuracy and better touch on short passes. I'm not gonna make any bold predictions about his chance of success as he is still very raw and well, he is on the Raiders. But I hate the Leftwich comp. It's trash IMO and the result of latent stereotyping rather than any legit analysis.Leftwich = Kerry Collins, not Jamarcus.
Thanks.I never watched JaMarcus in college so I had no idea how quick/slow his delivery is. All I know about Leftwich is his delivery is methodical and incredibly slow and he doesn't scramble. I know JaMarcus is no Vick but it was also my understanding he didn't run as much as some people seem to think. He rushed for less than 200 yards in college his Junior year. That seems to be a fairly close to Leftwich than people realize. Of course, Brady doesn't scramble much and he's a good qb so that isn't indicitive one way or the other.
Russell isn't Vick, or a young McNabb. The best comparison, from a mobility standpoint, is Big Ben. Mobile, but looking to pass. Ben scrambles out of trouble, but doesn't tuck the ball and run, he still looks to pass. Russell has 'good' mobility, but I don't think QB runs will ever be a part of the gameplan for him. He is mobile enough to gain yards with his feet, but not enough to consider it one of his 'weapons'. Which, in my opinion, is perfect. QBs that run a lot get hurt too much, IMO. As for the talent statement, Russell doesn't have the slow release, or the dramatic lack of foot speed of Leftwich. He may not ever be a franchise QB, but calling him less talented than Lefty at this point is.....puzzling.
:lmao: Big Ben seems to be a good comparision. Carr was the only guy that came to mind that I felt was close to JaMarcus but imo Carr took to running too soon.
 
I like the Ben comparison as well except that Russell is a little bit quicker and a little bit bigger. Like massraider said, I'm glad that he's going to be more of a pocket passer.

I'm amazed in some of the Russell hate in this thread given his limited starts up to this point. Nobody knows yet how he's going to fare long term, but I wouldn't put any credence into his limited action last year.

 
I like the Ben comparison as well except that Russell is a little bit quicker and a little bit bigger. Like massraider said, I'm glad that he's going to be more of a pocket passer.I'm amazed in some of the Russell hate in this thread given his limited starts up to this point.
I'm not. A perfect confluence of events to make the average fan assume the worst.You take the perception of Russell as a one-game wonder, add in a little Brady Quinn man-love, a whole lotta Calvin man-love, a long holdout, the fact that he went to Oakland, and frankly I am surprised any non-Raider fan thinks he has a chance.
 
I'm not going to add any great insight on Jamarcus Russell's arm, mobility, etc. I'll just rely on the scouts and the fact that he was selected #1 overall. There have been 15 previous quarterbacks selected first overall since the merger. They played varying amounts in their rookie seasons, with Russell's 66 pass attempts falling at the low end, between Vick (113) and Palmer (0). They were all the primary starter in year 2, as Russell clearly will be this year.

Only Carr (27th), Bartkowski (43rd) and Couch (35th) finished outside the top 24 in standard fantasy scoring at QB, and Bartkowski and Couch each missed 7+ games in year 2 with injury. Thus, 80% of them finished as a QB2 or better, and he is currently at QB23 in the expert redraft rankings, with only Norton having him inside the top 20. The average finish was QB18, 4 of 15 finished top 5 in year 2 (E. Manning, P. Manning, Vick, Bledsoe), and 2 more finished top 12 (Bradshaw and Elway).

At his current draft position, I think he is presenting value compared to several guys ahead of him. To me, he is an ideal QB2 if you arent going to grab one of the top 15 guys as your 2nd. Here's what we know based on history as well as the Raiders' QB moves this off-season:

1) he has significantly less downside compared to many of the 33+ somethings and young unproven guys on other teams, because he is the guaranteed starter all year barring a serious injury; and

2) based on history, I think he also presents a little more upside than those guys as well. He wouldn't be the first highly drafted QB to play at an above average level in his first non-rookie starting season.

He could finish anywhere from top 10 to outside the top 25, but given his upside and relative low risk of job loss, I have him at about QB18. There's a wide variance on what his numbers could be, but I'll go with this:

260 for 450, 3000 pass yds, 18 td's, 18 int's, 30 rushes, 150 rush yds, 3 td's.

 
Will the Raider homers stop saying there's so much JaMarcus hate going on? One poster compared him to Leftwich. Considering Leftwich had a couple of decent seasons that isn't even the most insulting comparision one could make. Most people seem to be relatively optimistic while maintaining an edge of realism.

 
Will the Raider homers stop saying there's so much JaMarcus hate going on? One poster compared him to Leftwich. Considering Leftwich had a couple of decent seasons that isn't even the most insulting comparision one could make. Most people seem to be relatively optimistic while maintaining an edge of realism.
This is one thread. Do a search for him, and you will see a lot of rather illogical assurances of failure. It's not in this thread, but it's here.
 
1) he has significantly less downside compared to many of the 33+ somethings and young unproven guys on other teams, because he is the guaranteed starter all year barring a serious injury; and2) based on history, I think he also presents a little more upside than those guys as well. He wouldn't be the first highly drafted QB to play at an above average level in his first non-rookie starting season.He could finish anywhere from top 10 to outside the top 25, but given his upside and relative low risk of job loss, I have him at about QB18. There's a wide variance on what his numbers could be, but I'll go with this:260 for 450, 3000 pass yds, 18 td's, 18 int's, 30 rushes, 150 rush yds, 3 td's.
Help me understand the logic in "job security = less downside? I have an ice cream headache trying to figure it out. He puts up 2 or 3 four INT games early, missing WRs, making bad calls, etc., he'll be holding the clipboard. 2900 yds16 TDs24 INT125 yds rush 1 TD
 
He's a Vince Young pick. Taken because of Athletic Ability instead of the ability to read defenses and make the adjustments. And, that's fine, there have been plenty of quarterbacks to succeed in the NFL and in fantasy.

He's got plenty of offensive weapons, Fargas is coming off a 1,000 yard season rushing, they took McFadden #1 overall, Ronald Curry is above average as a #2, and they just brought in Javon Walker, who's been an excellent big play receiver when healthy.

They ranked 31/32 in passing last year, they only attempted 451 attempts as a team. With McFadden and Fargas in town, I get the impression they'll keep running alot, and passing a little.

He's also got a defense that should be considerably improved in 2008, with the additions of Gibril Wilson and Deangelo Hall.

Hopefully, the Rush defense improves enough to keep them in games, if it doesn't, more opportunities for passing, but int's as well.

He's got solid mobility for a big fella, which should help him sneak a few tds in as well.

284/481

3126 Passing Yards

16 Tds

19 Ints

54 Rushes

221 yards

3 Rushing tds

I'd count on around 5 lost fumbles as well.

For a first season, on a run heavy team, it's really not that bad.

 

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