Player Spotlight: Jason Campbell (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jason Campbell, QB, Washington Redskins

Player Page Link: Jason Campbell Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

289-467 3152 yds. 18 TD 12 INTS.

35 rushes 165 yards 1 TD

I expect Jason's big leap to be next year after the rookie wr's have time to adjust, for now Portis is the man.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Are we even sure that he'll be the starter this season? Will Jim Zorn have as much loyalty to Jason Campbell as Joe Gibbs did? Todd Collins looked better than him in his limited playing time last season.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Are we even sure that he'll be the starter this season? Will Jim Zorn have as much loyalty to Jason Campbell as Joe Gibbs did? Todd Collins looked better than him in his limited playing time last season.

Pretty sure Campbell will get every chance to keep the job over a 36 year old who hasn't seen significant action since 1997.

 

[dgreen]

Are we even sure that he'll be the starter this season? Will Jim Zorn have as much loyalty to Jason Campbell as Joe Gibbs did? Todd Collins looked better than him in his limited playing time last season.

Todd Collins looked better because he was in an offense that he was a master of. Collins had been in Al Saunders' offense for about 7 years. He never everything about it. Collins knew exactly where he wanted to go with the ball. He'll now be in a new offense and won't have that familiarity. This is Campbell's job.

 

[T Bell]

Are we even sure that he'll be the starter this season? Will Jim Zorn have as much loyalty to Jason Campbell as Joe Gibbs did? Todd Collins looked better than him in his limited playing time last season.

Todd Collins looked better because he was in an offense that he was a master of. Collins had been in Al Saunders' offense for about 7 years. He never everything about it. Collins knew exactly where he wanted to go with the ball. He'll now be in a new offense and won't have that familiarity. This is Campbell's job.

The truth is that Campbell entering the season is in one of the most secure starting positions for a QB in the league. Zorn has unequivocally endorsed him. Collins is there for emergencies, but is learning a new system right next to Campbell. Brennan isn't ready to play and figures to be on IR this year. I'm not sure what to make of this fantasy situation yet. I think Portis will produce like he has, and Cooley likely will; beyond that I don't feel like I have enough data yet on how this offense is going to perform to make predictions on Campbell yet.

 

[Jason Wood]

I think Jason Campbell is in a really tough spot. He's about to learn his 7th offense in 9 years; which almost seems impossible to believe; but it's the truth. He's also learning a very traditional version of the WCO after playing a Don Coryell style offense the last few seasons. In case anyone is wondering, he and most of the team are learning a completely new playbook. New terminology. New formations. That's never an easy thing.

Add to that one of the weaker starting WR tandems in the league, and I expect Campbell to get off to a slow start. Over time, if either Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly are legitimate, I fully expect Randle El will be removed from the starting lineup; but that's not a quick fix.

 

[T Bell]

I think Jason Campbell is in a really tough spot. He's about to learn his 7th offense in 9 years; which almost seems impossible to believe; but it's the truth. He's also learning a very traditional version of the WCO after playing a Don Coryell style offense the last few seasons. In case anyone is wondering, he and most of the team are learning a completely new playbook. New terminology. New formations. That's never an easy thing.

Add to that one of the weaker starting WR tandems in the league, and I expect Campbell to get off to a slow start. Over time, if either Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly are legitimate, I fully expect Randle El will be removed from the starting lineup; but that's not a quick fix.

In mitigation of what Jason said, Campbell ran the WCO - successfully, I might add - his senior year at Auburn, but it's true that the terminology of the offense couldn't be more different than the Coryell-inspired system that Gibbs and Saunders ran (Gibbs and Saunders did use the same terminology, so at least that didn't change for Campbell). The WR's seem to be happier with the new system if their offseason quotes are to be believed.

As for quality of receivers, QB's have excelled with less to throw to than Moss and Cooley (and Portis out of the backfield), so the key for me is Moss' health. If he's healthy (it's always his hamstrings or groin that are the problem), then they should be fine. If Moss is out, they've got problems in the receiving corps unless and until Thomas or Kelly or someone else shows they can play. Randle El, like Wes Welker, can make plays as a complimentary target, but not if he's the best WR on the field.

 

[css2373]

I think Jason Campbell is in a really tough spot. He's about to learn his 7th offense in 9 years; which almost seems impossible to believe; but it's the truth. He's also learning a very traditional version of the WCO after playing a Don Coryell style offense the last few seasons. In case anyone is wondering, he and most of the team are learning a completely new playbook. New terminology. New formations. That's never an easy thing.Add to that one of the weaker starting WR tandems in the league, and I expect Campbell to get off to a slow start. Over time, if either Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly are legitimate, I fully expect Randle El will be removed from the starting lineup; but that's not a quick fix.

Great point about the switch to the WCO which is predicated on timing and quick reads...not Campbell's strengths. And who will be his big possession receivers, the 2 rookies? I think he will struggle early and then who knows with a rookie coach.260-440 2970 18 11230 2

 

[Jason Wood]

I think Jason Campbell is in a really tough spot. He's about to learn his 7th offense in 9 years; which almost seems impossible to believe; but it's the truth. He's also learning a very traditional version of the WCO after playing a Don Coryell style offense the last few seasons. In case anyone is wondering, he and most of the team are learning a completely new playbook. New terminology. New formations. That's never an easy thing.Add to that one of the weaker starting WR tandems in the league, and I expect Campbell to get off to a slow start. Over time, if either Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly are legitimate, I fully expect Randle El will be removed from the starting lineup; but that's not a quick fix.

Great point about the switch to the WCO which is predicated on timing and quick reads...not Campbell's strengths. And who will be his big possession receivers, the 2 rookies? I think he will struggle early and then who knows with a rookie coach.260-440 2970 18 11230 2

I want to be clear, I don't want to be misconstrued as thinking Jason Campbell is a bad QB or doomed to fail. I just think he's had some terribly bad luck and any QB benefits from stability; something he has yet to enjoy in his career. I think the key point is I see almost no way he can be successful EARLY in the season. If you want to stash him on your roster as a late round backup and hope that one of the rookie WRs pans out quickly; I wouldn't be shocked to see Campbell playing well by the last four to six games. But by then, who knows how the winds will blow with a new coach in place.

 

[Sidewinder16]

I think Jason Campbell is in a really tough spot. He's about to learn his 7th offense in 9 years; which almost seems impossible to believe; but it's the truth. He's also learning a very traditional version of the WCO after playing a Don Coryell style offense the last few seasons. In case anyone is wondering, he and most of the team are learning a completely new playbook. New terminology. New formations. That's never an easy thing.

Add to that one of the weaker starting WR tandems in the league, and I expect Campbell to get off to a slow start. Over time, if either Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly are legitimate, I fully expect Randle El will be removed from the starting lineup; but that's not a quick fix.

The bolded part is not entirely true. The only thing new in the playbook this year is the passing game. The basic formations/plays and the terminology of the running game are unchanged this season.Obviously, from a fantasy perspective, learning a new passing offense is far more key to Campbell's success than learning a new running offense, but the fact that he isn't learning a new running offense should bode well for his ability to pick up the new passing game quicker.

Other than that, I agree that this will be a learning/growing year for everyone in the 'Skins passing game. A new passing system (it should also be noted that Campbell has run a WCO successfully in college) + new skill players = learning curve. Just how steep that curve will be is the key question.

 

[Jason Wood]

I think Jason Campbell is in a really tough spot. He's about to learn his 7th offense in 9 years; which almost seems impossible to believe; but it's the truth. He's also learning a very traditional version of the WCO after playing a Don Coryell style offense the last few seasons. In case anyone is wondering, he and most of the team are learning a completely new playbook. New terminology. New formations. That's never an easy thing.

Add to that one of the weaker starting WR tandems in the league, and I expect Campbell to get off to a slow start. Over time, if either Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly are legitimate, I fully expect Randle El will be removed from the starting lineup; but that's not a quick fix.

The bolded part is not entirely true. The only thing new in the playbook this year is the passing game. The basic formations/plays and the terminology of the running game are unchanged this season.Obviously, from a fantasy perspective, learning a new passing offense is far more key to Campbell's success than learning a new running offense, but the fact that he isn't learning a new running offense should bode well for his ability to pick up the new passing game quicker.

Other than that, I agree that this will be a learning/growing year for everyone in the 'Skins passing game. A new passing system (it should also be noted that Campbell has run a WCO successfully in college) + new skill players = learning curve. Just how steep that curve will be is the key question.

Hey Sidewinder, you're right; and bad on me for not being more explicit in my declaration. The passing offense, formations and terminology differ. Thanks for pointing that out, particularly because it does argue well for the continued success of Clinton Portis.

 

[Sidewinder16]

Hey Sidewinder, you're right; and bad on me for not being more explicit in my declaration. The passing offense, formations and terminology differ. Thanks for pointing that out, particularly because it does argue well for the continued success of Clinton Portis.

CP in a Gibbs/Bugel rushing offense and a WCO passing offense should =

But that discussion is for a different Spotlight.

 

[Jason Wood]

Hey Sidewinder, you're right; and bad on me for not being more explicit in my declaration. The passing offense, formations and terminology differ. Thanks for pointing that out, particularly because it does argue well for the continued success of Clinton Portis.

CP in a Gibbs/Bugel rushing offense and a WCO passing offense should =

But that discussion is for a different Spotlight.

Agreed (probably in two weeks if our schedule holds).

 

[Sidewinder16]

For everyone worried that Campbell's job may not be very secure, or that he may have a relatively short leash, it's been said over and over this offseason that Campbell is the undisputed starter. And I'm pretty sure everyone from Dan Snyder down to Todd Collins, and everyone in between, has been saying this.

The Washington Post beat reporters have written that Snyder and Vinny Cerrato made it clear to every HC candidate interviewed this past January that Campbell was the QB of the future for the 'Skins. If a HC candidate didn't see Campbell as part of the 'Skins future, that HC was not going to be a part of the 'Skins future.

Here's a quote from Zorn during minicamp earlier this month:

Of course, there will be many stages to this process, Zorn said, and Campbell has only started. But Campbell has proven to Zorn he is committed to the new offense, and Zorn said he is committed to Campbell.

"Todd Collins, who lit it for the last quarter of [last] year for the Redskins, who got 'em to the playoffs when Jason was out [with a dislocated left kneecap], I told him right off the bat [after becoming head coach] on the telephone, 'Jason is our starter,' " Zorn said. "He heard it from me personally and that's what I told the press.

"I didn't want to disappoint him, or take away from the competition, I just really wanted him to know the way it was. Jason knows he's the starter, the [offensive] line knows that he's the starter and there's no question. I think there's something to be said for that."

 

[dgreen]

To add to Sidewinder16's comments, it was reported that Jason Campbell was the top interview topic when Snyder and Cerrato were hiring a HC. (Okay, maybe it was Chad Johnson, but Campbell was discussed a lot in interviews.)

The Redskins will be tough to project this year. Right now, I have no clue how many rush attempts and pass attempts to project as my starting point. Will Zorn mirror Holmgren's runass philosophy? Will he be more like an Andy Reid WCO runass ratio? Is he looking to do his own thing and have his own philosophy?

 

[radballs]

3,200 passing yards, 18 TDs, 15 INTs, 42 rushes for 210 yards and 1 TD

 

[fatness]

Add to that one of the weaker starting WR tandems in the league, and I expect Campbell to get off to a slow start.

I expect a slow start from Campbell this year as well. Some of that is due to him learning another new offense as you said. But Campbell is a bright guy, very coachable, and he's said that the offense this year seems less complicated than last year. More of my doubt about him centers on Zorn himself. I'm not sure yet how well he's going to be running an entire team. He seems overly-focused on QB play, and if the rest of the offense is not getting the same amount of coaching you could easily have a QB who knows what to do and can do it, and an offense that really isn't sure what to do yet. All that is just my impression; there's been nothing happening so far to indicate one way or the other how Zorn is doing and will be doing under game pressure.

 

[Jason Wood]

To add to Sidewinder16's comments, it was reported that Jason Campbell was the top interview topic when Snyder and Cerrato were hiring a HC. (Okay, maybe it was Chad Johnson, but Campbell was discussed a lot in interviews.)

The Redskins will be tough to project this year. Right now, I have no clue how many rush attempts and pass attempts to project as my starting point. Will Zorn mirror Holmgren's runass philosophy? Will he be more like an Andy Reid WCO runass ratio? Is he looking to do his own thing and have his own philosophy?

I wouldn't worry about that. Andy is a man unto itself when it comes to the run/pass ratio. Most WCO coaches understand the need for balance and remain committed to it; and let's not lose track of Mike Holmgren's belief in balance or that the Seahawks were at their best when Shaun Alexander was playing at an MVP level. The only proven, elite offensive commodity in D.C. is Clinton Portis. And Portis happens to be well versed in the WCO, as well, from his days in Denver. To think Zorn wouldn't use him early and often defies logic IMHO.

 

[Sidewinder16]

The Redskins will be tough to project this year. Right now, I have no clue how many rush attempts and pass attempts to project as my starting point. Will Zorn mirror Holmgren's runass philosophy? Will he be more like an Andy Reid WCO runass ratio? Is he looking to do his own thing and have his own philosophy?

I said above that determining how steep the learning curve for everything new this year is the key to figuring out Campbell's success in this offense.The key to projecting his specific numbers probably lies in dgreen's point, here. At this point, any projection is a complete shot in the dark. Zorn has never called plays before, or in any other way been in charge of an NFL offense. He's had a variety of different influences in his career and his collection of offensive coordinators/assistants is probably just as varied. The only thing we really know is that the passing game will be a "WCO". But, as dgreen pointed out, what that means to a runass ratio can vary, sometimes greatly.My gut tells me radballs numbers are his floor, and, assuming a 16 game season, I'd guarantee that. I think his potential to add 15-20% on top of that is decent.

 

[dgreen]

To add to Sidewinder16's comments, it was reported that Jason Campbell was the top interview topic when Snyder and Cerrato were hiring a HC. (Okay, maybe it was Chad Johnson, but Campbell was discussed a lot in interviews.)

The Redskins will be tough to project this year. Right now, I have no clue how many rush attempts and pass attempts to project as my starting point. Will Zorn mirror Holmgren's runass philosophy? Will he be more like an Andy Reid WCO runass ratio? Is he looking to do his own thing and have his own philosophy?

I wouldn't worry about that. Andy is a man unto itself when it comes to the run/pass ratio. Most WCO coaches understand the need for balance and remain committed to it; and let's not lose track of Mike Holmgren's belief in balance or that the Seahawks were at their best when Shaun Alexander was playing at an MVP level. The only proven, elite offensive commodity in D.C. is Clinton Portis. And Portis happens to be well versed in the WCO, as well, from his days in Denver. To think Zorn wouldn't use him early and often defies logic IMHO.

I agree. I was just throwing out the extreme on the passing side. But, I really have no idea what to expect from Zorn. I hope he has the Holmgren philosophy and attempts a high run ratio, but we'll see. To me, the team as a whole is a bit of an unknown. It may not matter what Zorn wants to run if they trail a lot and are forced to throw.

 

[T Bell]

I believe Zorn has been on record as saying he favors a power-running version of the WCO, much in the fashion of what Seattle ran from 2002-2005, when Alexander was in his prime. Seattle only really departed from that model the last year or two when Alexander and their running game deteriorated severely.

They look to me to have been pretty balanced on offense, ranking between 10 and 20 in both rushing and passing. I should add that that appears to have meant that they rushed ~470 times as a team, while passing for ~530 times, which is more or less what you'd expect out of a conventional/traditional WCO.

 

[dgreen]

I believe Zorn has been on record as saying he favors a power-running version of the WCO, much in the fashion of what Seattle ran from 2002-2005, when Alexander was in his prime. Seattle only really departed from that model the last year or two when Alexander and their running game deteriorated severely.

They look to me to have been pretty balanced on offense, ranking between 10 and 20 in both rushing and passing.

Okay, looks like Gibbs the last three years averaged 1,023 plays per year. He threw (pass attempts + sacks) 50.7% of the time and ran (rush attempts) 49.3%.Holmgren averaged 1,040 plays per year the last three years. He threw 54% and ran 46%. However, that is pretty skewed by last year's 59:41, which, as you mentioned, was due to a deterioration of talent and health.

I'll give Washington 1,030 plays and assume an average team performance, requiring neither a ton of comeback passing nor a ton of lead-holding ball-pounding on the ground. So, I'll go with 52.5% passes, giving the team 540 pass plays. I'll go with 30 sacks allowed for 510 pass attempts.

Campbell's career completion % is 57.7, but he jumped from 53 his rookie year to 60 last year. I'll stick with 60% for 2008, with learning a new offense and being in a high-percentage offense balancing each other out. Now we have 510 attempts and 306 completions.

Campbell's career YPA is 6.4. Despite likely moving to a shorter passing game, I think his YPA should increase. By getting the ball in the hands of Moss, Cooley, and Portis earlier, they'll be allowed to use their open field abilities to gain yards. So, a little bump up to 6.7 gives Campbell 3,417 yards.

Campbell's career TD% is 3.5, falling from a healthy 4.8 in 2006 to a sad 2.9 in 2007. I'll give a tiny increase up to 3.75%, allowing Campbell to throw 19 TDs on his 510 attempts. Hopefully his new rookie targets will provide a little extra boost in the redzone.

With a career INT% of 2.7, Campbell's 510 attempts would net him 14 INTs. I don't see it being much different than that.

So, that gives Campbell 306-510-3417-19-14 passing

But, he also adds some running to his game. Throughout his career, he has run about once every nine times he drops back. That would give him 57 rushes in 2008. That seems a little too high. The WCO should have him releasing the ball quicker than in the past, likely reducing the number of times he still has the ball in his hand needing to scramble. Let's do 45-225-1 rushing.

 

[T Bell]

I believe Zorn has been on record as saying he favors a power-running version of the WCO, much in the fashion of what Seattle ran from 2002-2005, when Alexander was in his prime. Seattle only really departed from that model the last year or two when Alexander and their running game deteriorated severely.

They look to me to have been pretty balanced on offense, ranking between 10 and 20 in both rushing and passing.

Okay, looks like Gibbs the last three years averaged 1,023 plays per year. He threw (pass attempts + sacks) 50.7% of the time and ran (rush attempts) 49.3%.Holmgren averaged 1,040 plays per year the last three years. He threw 54% and ran 46%. However, that is pretty skewed by last year's 59:41, which, as you mentioned, was due to a deterioration of talent and health.

I'll give Washington 1,030 plays and assume an average team performance, requiring neither a ton of comeback passing nor a ton of lead-holding ball-pounding on the ground. So, I'll go with 52.5% passes, giving the team 540 pass plays. I'll go with 30 sacks allowed for 510 pass attempts.

Campbell's career completion % is 57.7, but he jumped from 53 his rookie year to 60 last year. I'll stick with 60% for 2008, with learning a new offense and being in a high-percentage offense balancing each other out. Now we have 510 attempts and 306 completions.

Campbell's career YPA is 6.4. Despite likely moving to a shorter passing game, I think his YPA should increase. By getting the ball in the hands of Moss, Cooley, and Portis earlier, they'll be allowed to use their open field abilities to gain yards. So, a little bump up to 6.7 gives Campbell 3,417 yards.

Campbell's career TD% is 3.5, falling from a healthy 4.8 in 2006 to a sad 2.9 in 2007. I'll give a tiny increase up to 3.75%, allowing Campbell to throw 19 TDs on his 510 attempts. Hopefully his new rookie targets will provide a little extra boost in the redzone.

With a career INT% of 2.7, Campbell's 510 attempts would net him 14 INTs. I don't see it being much different than that.

So, that gives Campbell 306-510-3417-19-14 passing

But, he also adds some running to his game. Throughout his career, he has run about once every nine times he drops back. That would give him 57 rushes in 2008. That seems a little too high. The WCO should have him releasing the ball quicker than in the past, likely reducing the number of times he still has the ball in his hand needing to scramble. Let's do 45-225-1 rushing.

That seems solid as far as analysis goes. I'd have a tough time envisioning him doing worse than that, but with a healthy I could definitely seem him exceeding those numbers. People forget how bad that passing offense has been without Moss in it. That was a major reason for their mediocrity the last couple of years.

 

[jurb26]

I wont go into any long discussion about Campbell as it seems many of the talking points have already been covered. Needless to say, I think Campbell has stud potential. It's a real shame this guy has been forced to learn a new offensive scheme basically every single year he has been a QB at any level higher than High School. I love the weapons Wash has in place now, but I fear that by the time they all mature the Oline will be collecting social security. Still, I'm optimistic about his future. Just not overly optimistic about this year. I concur as a Portis owner that this is a great year to have Portis!

275 completions, 450 attempts, 2875 yds, 16 TDs, 12 Ints

40 carries, 210 yds, 2 TDs

 

[Lash]

Not much to add other than as a Campbell horder in dynasty leagues, I was pleased that the Redskins grabbed pass catchers with their top three selections this past draft

300 completions, 495 attempts, 3275 yds, 19 TDs, 14 Ints

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I expect Jason Campbell to move forward off last season. When watching him, I see a young QB that shows composure, a big arm and some leadership. The Redskins selected two quality receivers in the draft that are tall targets. If there's one thing I've noticed about Campbell, he tends to throw the ball high to his receivers and having these two leapers will benefit his throwing style, more so than say a Santana Moss.

3400 yards, 17 Td's and 16 Int's

 

[Lowen1]

3,588 yards, 21 TD, 15 Int. If he plays all 16 games.

I see the Zorn pass/rush ratio close to 55/45 because Zorn was a qb and that is "his" part of the offense. Running offense is staying the same. If he wants to make a name for himself, I think he thinks he'll have to throw. I'd hope for a more balanced attack, but I'm not sure we'll see that this year.

 

[dgreen]

I expect Jason Campbell to move forward off last season. When watching him, I see a young QB that shows composure, a big arm and some leadership. The Redskins selected two quality receivers in the draft that are tall targets. If there's one thing I've noticed about Campbell, he tends to throw the ball high to his receivers and having these two leapers will benefit his throwing style, more so than say a Santana Moss.3400 yards, 17 Td's and 16 Int's

How is that a "move forward"?I'm assuming your projecting that over 16 games. That would come to 212.5 yards, 1.06 TDs, and 1 INT per game.Over his career, he's averaging 199.9 yards, 1.1 TDs, and 0.85 INT per game.Last year, he had 207.7, 0.92, 0.85 per game after a first year of 185.3, 1.43, and 0.86.I agree with much of what you say, but those numbers wouldn't really indicate a "move forward" to me.