Player Spotlight: Jay Cutler (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears

Player Page Link: Jay Cutler Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Blackjacks]

I think Cutler might go a little high this year in redrafts due to his unbelieveable season last year.

Why do I think this?

He won't have as many attempts

He has a better defense and will throw less in the 4th quarter of games

He doesn't have as much talent on the offensive side of the ball

Still I do like Cutler as a player and I think he should be in the top 15.

3300 yards

21 td's

11 int's

25 rushes

100 yards

2 td's

 

[mikel0254]

I see Cutler having a rude awakening in his first year in Chicago. His weapons are not even close to what he had in Denver and Chicago's defense will keep them in games which to me translates to less attempts for Cutler (they won't be trailing every game and forced to throw). I think another factor will have an effect on Cutler - the weather. Yes, I know Denver is a cold weather city also, but go to the weather channel and check out the averages for the two cities in the fall/winter. Chicago is typically 10 to 15 degrees colder and a heck of a lot more windy. I actually think Chicago will be really good this year, and should be playoff bound. That said, I think Cutler will be a better NFL QB than a fantasy QB.

3200 yards

20 TD's

16 INT's

100 rushing yards

1 Rushing TD

 

[Jedi Knight]

I actually believe Cutler will be a little under-valued this year. Most of the people I talk to see him dropping to about 15th due to the lack of receivers in Chicago. I'm a big believer in the QB makes the receiver more than the receiver making the QB, and I think the Chicago offense will be somewhat of a surprise this year. Even though the jury's still out on Hester, haveing Bennett on the other side will be comforting to him as a receiver he has played with before. Plus, Olsen can be a great TE. Improvements on the O-line and Forte to keep the defense honest and I see:

3800 yards

26 TD's

250 Rushing yards

maybe 1 or 2 rushing TD's

 

[HawkeyeChief]

I see Cutler surprising here. He has faster deep threats in Chicago (Hester, Knox), WRs who I believe will be very good over the middle (Bennet, Iglesias), and a couple good TEs including one with tons of physical talent (Olsen). I think Cutler is a better decision maker than most think and has the strongest arm in the NFL outside of maybe Russell. Cutler can move out of the pocke and has a strong run game to support him now, I see...

3800 yds

28 tds

14 Ints

100yds rushing

1 td

 

[Tau837]

IMO it would be helpful for posters to include a projected number of passing attempts with these projections. I think that is going to be a point of contention for some.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Its quite possible for Cutler to have a better year at QB in 2009 without putting up the gaudy stats he put up in 2008. In Chicago with a better running game and a better defense - and likely a few more bad weather games - he just will not have the opportunity to throw for 4,500 again this season (r at least the Bears should hope for that to be the case). I don't think the drop off in talent at the WR position will be as drastic as people will make it out to be and I think we'll see players like Hester, Bennett, Davis and Olsen step up and show what they are capable of and surprise some people. Its just like I said, coaching philopshy and game situation will dicatate Cutler putting up the ball much less than he had to last season.

3,785 - 24 TDs, 14 Ints.

45 rushing yards

 

[travdogg]

I actually believe Cutler will be a little under-valued this year. Most of the people I talk to see him dropping to about 15th due to the lack of receivers in Chicago. I'm a big believer in the QB makes the receiver more than the receiver making the QB, and I think the Chicago offense will be somewhat of a surprise this year. Even though the jury's still out on Hester, haveing Bennett on the other side will be comforting to him as a receiver he has played with before. Plus, Olsen can be a great TE. Improvements on the O-line and Forte to keep the defense honest and I see:3800 yards26 TD's250 Rushing yardsmaybe 1 or 2 rushing TD's

I'm thinking about the same in regards to Cutler's numbers. He'll still be a QB1, but not a guy who will carry you for weeks at a time like he did in Denver last year.

 

[Ozymandias]

Well, Cutler had 384 completions out of 616 attempts for 4526 yards, 25 td's and 18 ints.

Chicago had 304 completions out of 528 attempts for 3061 yards, 20 td's and 14 ints.

Split the difference?

344 completions out of 572 attempts for 3794 yards, 23 td's and 16 int's.

Yards per attempt: Cutler 7.38; Chicago 5.8

That leads me to believe that Chicago will pass more, so my prognostication is:

360 completions out of 590 attempts for 4130 yards, 26 td's and 18 int's.

 

[Jason Wood]

IMO it would be helpful for posters to include a projected number of passing attempts with these projections. I think that is going to be a point of contention for some.

Great point JWB...attempts and completions play a huge part in comparing, contrasting and analyzing projections.

 

[mikel0254]

Well, Cutler had 384 completions out of 616 attempts for 4526 yards, 25 td's and 18 ints.Chicago had 304 completions out of 528 attempts for 3061 yards, 20 td's and 14 ints. Split the difference?344 completions out of 572 attempts for 3794 yards, 23 td's and 16 int's.Yards per attempt: Cutler 7.38; Chicago 5.8That leads me to believe that Chicago will pass more, so my prognostication is:360 completions out of 590 attempts for 4130 yards, 26 td's and 18 int's.

If you're predicting 4,130 yards and 26 TD's, I assume you have Hester ranked really high (like top 5 WR's)? I just can't see Cutler passing for 26 and 4,000 with those receivers

 

[MAC_32]

I doubt Chicago changes their philosophy much if at all with Cutler in tow.

If you believe Hester's on the brink of a breakout and Cutler's the tipping point needed then by all means buy Cutler, but since I'm not a Hester believer and given where I expect Cutler to go in drafts I would rather have Hass and Carson at similar prices. Solid QB's on teams with good WR corps, bad running games, and iffy defenses.

 

[Ozymandias]

Well, Cutler had 384 completions out of 616 attempts for 4526 yards, 25 td's and 18 ints.Chicago had 304 completions out of 528 attempts for 3061 yards, 20 td's and 14 ints. Split the difference?344 completions out of 572 attempts for 3794 yards, 23 td's and 16 int's.Yards per attempt: Cutler 7.38; Chicago 5.8That leads me to believe that Chicago will pass more, so my prognostication is:360 completions out of 590 attempts for 4130 yards, 26 td's and 18 int's.

If you're predicting 4,130 yards and 26 TD's, I assume you have Hester ranked really high (like top 5 WR's)? I just can't see Cutler passing for 26 and 4,000 with those receivers

John Kitna did it in 2006 with Roy Williams and Mike Furrey, and a nothing TE.

 

[a_troll00]

A lot of people in the football guys are saying Cutler has gone into a "not so good" situation because of the receiving corp. Let's take a look at what he has to deal with in Chicago.

First is Devin Hester, a speedster who can get open down field. Cutler can hit him, but can Hester haul them in? We'll find out this season. Cutler also has Earl Bennet to work with... wait, who? Only Cutler's favorite target at Vanderbilt, there is already established chemistry between these two, it'll be interesting how it turns out. Anyways, I'll call it right here, Bennet = good sleeper selection. Of course there is also Greg Olsen, enough said. Last but not least is Matt Forte, he can run and also catch the ball. Cutler has already stated he is impressed with Forte's receiving ability.

Chicago's receiving corp may be unproven, but not weak. We won't see Cutler have to throw it nearly as much this season, nor will he have to force so many throws in order to try and keep the Bears in a game. Expect a drop in production but not as dramatic as many will think.

3700-4000 yds, 24-27 tds, 12 int

A very good mid-round pickup at QB. Also, the Broncos are gonna spend the next 12 years regretting the trade of this guy.

 

[Chase Stuart]

IMO it would be helpful for posters to include a projected number of passing attempts with these projections. I think that is going to be a point of contention for some.

And games played, while we're at it.One other thing -- many have cited the good Chicago D as a reason to downgrade Cutler. IMO, it's the opposite. Having a good defense will good him the ball more often, put him in more favorable passing situations, and give him many more TD opportunities.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I doubt Chicago changes their philosophy much if at all with Cutler in tow.

Why wouldn't they? They go from having one of the worst QBs in the NFL to one of the best.

 

[Bri]

Well, Cutler had 384 completions out of 616 attempts for 4526 yards, 25 td's and 18 ints.Chicago had 304 completions out of 528 attempts for 3061 yards, 20 td's and 14 ints. Split the difference?344 completions out of 572 attempts for 3794 yards, 23 td's and 16 int's.Yards per attempt: Cutler 7.38; Chicago 5.8That leads me to believe that Chicago will pass more, so my prognostication is:360 completions out of 590 attempts for 4130 yards, 26 td's and 18 int's.

Q for anyone reallyHow does Denver's offense have anything to do with Chicago?Or for that matter, how does Chicago's previously poor quarterbacks have anything to do with Cutler?

 

[mikel0254]

Well, Cutler had 384 completions out of 616 attempts for 4526 yards, 25 td's and 18 ints.

Chicago had 304 completions out of 528 attempts for 3061 yards, 20 td's and 14 ints.

Split the difference?

344 completions out of 572 attempts for 3794 yards, 23 td's and 16 int's.

Yards per attempt: Cutler 7.38; Chicago 5.8

That leads me to believe that Chicago will pass more, so my prognostication is:

360 completions out of 590 attempts for 4130 yards, 26 td's and 18 int's.

If you're predicting 4,130 yards and 26 TD's, I assume you have Hester ranked really high (like top 5 WR's)? I just can't see Cutler passing for 26 and 4,000 with those receivers

Olsen 850 and 9 TDs. Forte 700 with 6 TDs.Thats just 10 TDs between all the other WRs, TEs and RBs.

Im not so sure about the 4100... more like 3700.

But I also think he helps develop a WR just like he did in Denver.

3770 - 25 TDs - 15 Ints.

If those are your projections, then fine. But you all of sudden think Olsen will be the best TE in the league (139pts in standard scoring)? And Forte will get close to 50% more receiving yards and 2 more TD's than last year with a QB who won't dump it off as much as Orton did? I have to disagree

 

[mikel0254]

Well, Cutler had 384 completions out of 616 attempts for 4526 yards, 25 td's and 18 ints.Chicago had 304 completions out of 528 attempts for 3061 yards, 20 td's and 14 ints. Split the difference?344 completions out of 572 attempts for 3794 yards, 23 td's and 16 int's.Yards per attempt: Cutler 7.38; Chicago 5.8That leads me to believe that Chicago will pass more, so my prognostication is:360 completions out of 590 attempts for 4130 yards, 26 td's and 18 int's.

If you're predicting 4,130 yards and 26 TD's, I assume you have Hester ranked really high (like top 5 WR's)? I just can't see Cutler passing for 26 and 4,000 with those receivers

John Kitna did it in 2006 with Roy Williams and Mike Furrey, and a nothing TE.

Detroit had the second most pass attempts in the league and the least rush attempts in the league that year. Unless you think Chicago will stop running the ball and pass more than ever - How are the situations similar? Plus, Chicago D is 10X better than Detroit's in 2006, and they won't have to abandon the run every game b/c they're trailing

 

[a_troll00]

I doubt Chicago changes their philosophy much if at all with Cutler in tow.If you believe Hester's on the brink of a breakout and Cutler's the tipping point needed then by all means buy Cutler, but since I'm not a Hester believer and given where I expect Cutler to go in drafts I would rather have Hass and Carson at similar prices. Solid QB's on teams with good WR corps, bad running games, and iffy defenses.

The Bears did not trade away two 1st round picks and a third just to have Jay Cutler manage the game. Just saying...

 

[MAC_32]

I doubt Chicago changes their philosophy much if at all with Cutler in tow.

Why wouldn't they? They go from having one of the worst QBs in the NFL to one of the best.

I think you're under valuing Orton. Pre ankle injury he was developing into a pretty damn good QB, his mechanics got messed up when he sprained his ankle but even a messed up Orton was a better option than the alternatives so he wasn't given time to heal. I'm not saying Orton = Cutler, I think Cutler's the superior QB, but I don't think he's as great of an upgrade as many believe. All that's not the main reason I don't think they'll change their philosophy though, I don't have time to get into detail about it now (got to run some errands before meeting friends for the Cavs game) but it basically comes down to I don't think they'll change because their philosophy's always been run the ball and win field position + turnover battles, Chicago Bear football, I don't see that identity changing with the Cutler addition, especially with a vanilla OC Ron Turner and a resistant to change head coach Loyal Lovie calling the shots.

 

[Ozymandias]

Well, Cutler had 384 completions out of 616 attempts for 4526 yards, 25 td's and 18 ints.Chicago had 304 completions out of 528 attempts for 3061 yards, 20 td's and 14 ints. Split the difference?344 completions out of 572 attempts for 3794 yards, 23 td's and 16 int's.Yards per attempt: Cutler 7.38; Chicago 5.8That leads me to believe that Chicago will pass more, so my prognostication is:360 completions out of 590 attempts for 4130 yards, 26 td's and 18 int's.

If you're predicting 4,130 yards and 26 TD's, I assume you have Hester ranked really high (like top 5 WR's)? I just can't see Cutler passing for 26 and 4,000 with those receivers

John Kitna did it in 2006 with Roy Williams and Mike Furrey, and a nothing TE.

Detroit had the second most pass attempts in the league and the least rush attempts in the league that year. Unless you think Chicago will stop running the ball and pass more than ever - How are the situations similar? Plus, Chicago D is 10X better than Detroit's in 2006, and they won't have to abandon the run every game b/c they're trailing

I didn't say the situations were similar. I was just responding to your assertions that it couldn't be done with the receivers Chicago has. Well. Mike Furrey and Roy Williams don't exactly set my spine tingling, let alone the no name TE. I am assuming Chicago will pass more than they did with Orton; a 7.4 yds per attempt is not to be sneezed at.

 

[Ozymandias]

Posted by Choke:

"And for the record....

despite Cutler helping get TWO wide receivers into the top 20 last year.... his tight ends last year hauled in the #3 in total production for the position 83-1118-6

I have him getting LESS TE yardage in Chicago. Just a bump in TDs."

Olsen and Clark went for 941 and 6. I have to feel with a more accurate QB, the yardage should go up some, perhaps even more than 1118; definitely the TD's.

 

[Pictus Cat]

It seems some want names for Cutler to have a great season.

There may not be one, but he will have a lot of options to get his #s.

Hester - Hit him for RAC

Bennett - Possession

Olson - Talented TE

Clark - Vet who has performed

Davis - Vet who has performed

Knox - Speedster

Forte - All over the field recieving RB

KJ - Talented COP receiving RB

An offensive coordinator will have the tools to put the ball anywhere really test defenses.

If none of the receivers stand out, Cutler may stand out.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I doubt Chicago changes their philosophy much if at all with Cutler in tow.

Why wouldn't they? They go from having one of the worst QBs in the NFL to one of the best.

I think you're under valuing Orton. Pre ankle injury he was developing into a pretty damn good QB, his mechanics got messed up when he sprained his ankle but even a messed up Orton was a better option than the alternatives so he wasn't given time to heal. I'm not saying Orton = Cutler, I think Cutler's the superior QB, but I don't think he's as great of an upgrade as many believe. All that's not the main reason I don't think they'll change their philosophy though, I don't have time to get into detail about it now (got to run some errands before meeting friends for the Cavs game) but it basically comes down to I don't think they'll change because their philosophy's always been run the ball and win field position + turnover battles, Chicago Bear football, I don't see that identity changing with the Cutler addition, especially with a vanilla OC Ron Turner and a resistant to change head coach Loyal Lovie calling the shots.

The Bears haven't had a QB like Cutler in 50 years. No sense looking at past history. I agree about Turner, though.

 

[Tau837]

Well, Cutler had 384 completions out of 616 attempts for 4526 yards, 25 td's and 18 ints.

Chicago had 304 completions out of 528 attempts for 3061 yards, 20 td's and 14 ints.

Split the difference?

344 completions out of 572 attempts for 3794 yards, 23 td's and 16 int's.

Yards per attempt: Cutler 7.38; Chicago 5.8

That leads me to believe that Chicago will pass more, so my prognostication is:

360 completions out of 590 attempts for 4130 yards, 26 td's and 18 int's.

If you're predicting 4,130 yards and 26 TD's, I assume you have Hester ranked really high (like top 5 WR's)? I just can't see Cutler passing for 26 and 4,000 with those receivers

Olsen 850 and 9 TDs. Forte 700 with 6 TDs.Thats just 10 TDs between all the other WRs, TEs and RBs.

Im not so sure about the 4100... more like 3700.

But I also think he helps develop a WR just like he did in Denver.

3770 - 25 TDs - 15 Ints.

If those are your projections, then fine. But you all of sudden think Olsen will be the best TE in the league (139pts in standard scoring)? And Forte will get close to 50% more receiving yards and 2 more TD's than last year with a QB who won't dump it off as much as Orton did? I have to disagree

I think those projections for both Olsen and Forte are too high, but especially for Forte.

- Only 9 RBs have had 500+ receiving yards in the past 5 years (a total of 13 times - Westbrook did it 4 times and Tiki twice).

- Only 3 RBs have had 600+ receiving yards in the past 5 years (a total of 6 times - Westbrook did it 4 times).

- Only 4 RBs have had 5 or more receiving TDs in the past 5 years (a total of 6 times - Westbrook did it 3 times).

- Only 2 RBs have had 6 or more receiving TDs in the past 5 years (a total of 2 times).

I realize it's hard to draw much from what happened in Denver, since Cutler is now in a different offense... but he certainly didn't throw much to his RBs there - in 2007 and 2008, he targeted his RBs a total of 142 times for 102 receptions, 836 receiving yards, and 3 TDs. That was only 13% of Cutler's attempts, as he preferred to go downfield to his WRs. Clearly, he doesn't have the same caliber of downfield weapons in Chicago, and is now in a different offense, so perhaps he will go to his RBs more. But it's going to have to be a huge shift to come anywhere close to that projection.

 

[gonzobill5]

It seems some want names for Cutler to have a great season.There may not be one, but he will have a lot of options to get his #s.Hester - Hit him for RACBennett - PossessionOlson - Talented TEClark - Vet who has performedDavis - Vet who has performedKnox - Speedster Forte - All over the field recieving RBKJ - Talented COP receiving RBAn offensive coordinator will have the tools to put the ball anywhere really test defenses.If none of the receivers stand out, Cutler may stand out.

I agree that Cutler could be really successful if he spreads the ball around and utilizes each player's strength. Is there any value in analyzing how many players catch passes from a particular QB? Cutler was routinely between 6 and 8, which sounds good but I have nothing to compare it to.

 

[Tau837]

Previous post that might be of some interest here:

1. Last year, Cutler attempted 616 passes; Chicago attempted 527 passes. That's a big gap that will reduce Cutler's fantasy value. For one thing, Denver's defense was a lot worse, averaging 28.0 ppg allowed, compared to 21.9 ppg allowed by Chicago. This contributed to Cutler throwing 326 passes while trailing last year, compared to only 178 for Orton.2. Last year, Cutler played his third year in Shanahan's offense; this year he will play his first year in Turner's offense. IMO that is a fantasy downgrade.3. Last year, Cutler had Marshall, Royal, Sheffler, and Stokley as his targets; this year, he will have Hester, Bennett, Olsen. IMO that is a fantasy downgrade.4. Last year, Cutler played behind an outstanding offensive line, which Football Outsiders ranked first in both running (Adjusted Line Yards) and passing (Adjusted Sack Rate); Chicago's line ranked #24 in that ranking. I know it's not a perfect method to rank OLs, and I know Chicago is seeking to improve its OL... but that gap is an obvious downgrade.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Couple of points on Cutler:

Cutler had 616 passing attempts last year. Do you realize that in the history of the NFL, only 5 QB's have ever had more in a single season (Brees, Bledsoe, Moon, Marino, Gannon)?

Fact of the matter is that Cutler's YPA was a respectable, but not great 7.35 YPA. And that was with...

1) Brandon Marshall, one of the Top 10 WR's in the NFL.

2) An emerging #2 in Eddie Royal

3) A offensive genius as HC

Now Chicago has been more of a passing team than you would think. The number of pass attempts (not including sacks) under Lovie Smith.

2008: 528

2007: 569

2006: 514

2005: 418

2004: 471

Consider that 2004, their leading QB was Chad Hutchinson and 2005 it was 4th round rookie Kyle Orton and you understand why those pass attempts were as low as they were. But once they got some degree of competency at the position, they did put it up at a decent rate. But with a solid running game, you will not see the Bears top 550 attempts.

Turning your attention to the Bears WR's. Devin Hester is starting to emerge, but he's probably no better than a solid #2 WR. Between Earl Bennett, Juaquin Iglesias, Rashied Davis...the Bears are still doing alot of test driving at the position. Having a QB of Cutler's caliber should help in some respects, but again...are we overstaing Cutler's ability here? Wasn't he a borderline QB1 this time last year? Isn't the only reason he put up a 4500 yard season was because he threw the ball the 9th most times in NFL history? Fact is, his TD percentage went down in 2008.

So, count me as a laggard to the Cutler bandwagon (although this does not appear to be ground breaking sentiment). He'll be good for Chicago, but he'll be outproduced by at least 7-8 QB's.

Prediction: 335 Completions 545 Attempts, 3892 Passing Yards, 22 TD's, 13 INT's, 45 Rushes 176 Rushing Yards 1 TD.

 

[Tau837]

Looking back the past few years, here were Chicago's offensive plays:

2006 - 1042 plays; 514 passing attempts; 25 sacks; 503 rushing attempts = 51.7% passing plays

2007 - 1035 plays; 569 passing attempts; 43 sacks; 423 rushing attempts = 59.1% passing plays

2008 - 991 plays; 528 passing attempts; 29 sacks; 434 rushing attempts = 56.2% passing plays

So, why the dropoff in total plays last season? Well, the QB was Grossman in 2006 and Grossman/Griese in 2007... could it have been the dropoff from Grossman/Griese to Orton? Actually, there was no dropoff... last year, the Bears QBs had a combined 77.5 QB rating, compared to 73.5 in 2006 and 72.2 in 2007; Bears QBs maintained the same NY/A (5.5) in 2008 as in 2007, threw more TDs in 2008, and threw fewer interceptions in 2008. I'm not sure what happened... the running game was poor last season... but also in 2007. The QBs took fewer sacks in 2008 (29) than in 2007 (43). The defense was below average last season... but worse in 2007.

Regardless, I think it's fair to assume that they can get back to 1040 offensive plays. So how to break down those plays? In 2006, the Bears had a top 5 defense; in 2007 and 2008, their defense was below average. In 2006, Thomas Jones ran the ball nearly 300 times for the Bears; in 2007, he was gone, and they had to go to a RBBC headed by Benson... big dropoff. Then last year, even though Forte was a good fantasy player, he averaged less than 4 ypc and there was no second RB to help... the second highest number of carries on the team was Kevin Jones with 34. Anyway, the point is, the past two years, the Bears defense and running game were below average, contributing to the Bears passing 57.7% of the time. Now they have a better QB than they had in those seasons.

However, with a better QB, I expect the Bears offense to be more effective, including the running game, since opposing defenses will have to respect downfield passing a bit more. We know Turner and Smith want to run and control the clock if possible. And it seems possible that both the running game and defense could improve a bit year over year for other reasons. So I think it would be reasonable to project 550 passing attempts and 25 sacks, to go along with 465 rushing attempts. This would mean 22 more passing attempts and 31 more rushing attempts than last year.

As for projecting 25 sacks, I think that is conservative. I know Cutler had only 11 sacks in 616 attempts last season, but I give most of the credit for that to his offensive line. As shown in a previous post, Football Outsiders ranked Denver's OL as the best in pass protection last season, whereas they ranked Chicago #24... not a perfect methodology to compare them, but indicative of a significant gap. Prior to last season, Cutler had a career 6.2% sack percentage; last season, the Bears collectively had a 5.2% sack percentage. To project Cutler with 25 sacks in 575 dropbacks is projecting a sack percentage of just 4.3%.

Compared to last season, Cutler will almost certainly be less effective this year. Consider:

1. Cutler will play behind a worse OL, so he will have a bit less time to make plays downfield.

2. He will have a less talented set of targets.

3. Cutler is in a new offense.

4. It seems fair to assume that Turner will not do as good a job with the playcalling in the passing game as Shanahan, and he'll presumably be more conservative.

5. As someone posted earlier, the weather will probably be worse in Chicago than Denver.

Cutler's career completion percentage is 62.5%, and last year it was 62.3%. I'll project 61%, as a result of the factors above.

Cutler's career yards per attempt is 7.4, and last year it was 7.3. I'll project 7.1, as a result of the factors above.

Cutler's career TD percentage is 4.4%, and last year it was 4.1%. I'll project 4%, as a result of the factors above.

Cutler's career interception percentage is 3.0%, and last year it was 2.9%. I'll project 3.1%, because I think he'll have to force the ball more often, since his receivers will not be able to get open as easily as his Denver receivers, in addition to the other factors above.

In 37 career games, Cutler has rushed 113 times for 423 yards and 3 TDs. That's a 16 game average of 49/183/1, and I see no compelling reason to project much different.

I think he'll play 16 games, since he has started 37 straight games and I'm only projecting 25 sacks.

So, all that yields the following projections:

16 games

335 completions, 550 passing attempts, 3905 passing yards, 22 passing TDs, 17 interceptions, 25 sacks

49 rushing attempts, 183 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD

 

[Tau837]

Couple of points on Cutler:

Cutler had 616 passing attempts last year. Do you realize that in the history of the NFL, only 5 QB's have ever had more in a single season (Brees, Bledsoe, Moon, Marino, Gannon)?

Fact of the matter is that Cutler's YPA was a respectable, but not great 7.35 YPA. And that was with...

1) Brandon Marshall, one of the Top 10 WR's in the NFL.

2) An emerging #2 in Eddie Royal

3) A offensive genius as HC

Now Chicago has been more of a passing team than you would think. The number of pass attempts (not including sacks) under Lovie Smith.

2008: 528

2007: 569

2006: 514

2005: 418

2004: 471

Consider that 2004, their leading QB was Chad Hutchinson and 2005 it was 4th round rookie Kyle Orton and you understand why those pass attempts were as low as they were. But once they got some degree of competency at the position, they did put it up at a decent rate. But with a solid running game, you will not see the Bears top 550 attempts.

Turning your attention to the Bears WR's. Devin Hester is starting to emerge, but he's probably no better than a solid #2 WR. Between Earl Bennett, Juaquin Iglesias, Rashied Davis...the Bears are still doing alot of test driving at the position. Having a QB of Cutler's caliber should help in some respects, but again...are we overstaing Cutler's ability here? Wasn't he a borderline QB1 this time last year? Isn't the only reason he put up a 4500 yard season was because he threw the ball the 9th most times in NFL history? Fact is, his TD percentage went down in 2008.

So, count me as a laggard to the Cutler bandwagon (although this does not appear to be ground breaking sentiment). He'll be good for Chicago, but he'll be outproduced by at least 7-8 QB's.

Prediction: 335 Completions 545 Attempts, 3892 Passing Yards, 22 TD's, 13 INT's, 45 Rushes 176 Rushing Yards 1 TD.

:( I just think you are a tad light on the interceptions, but otherwise, amazing how close our projections were.

 

[Tau837]

And for the record....despite Cutler helping get TWO wide receivers into the top 20 last year.... his tight ends last year hauled in the #3 in total production for the position 83-1118-6I have him getting LESS TE yardage in Chicago. Just a bump in TDs.

Of course, Cutler also had 616 pass attempts last year in Denver, a number he isn't likely to come close to in Chicago. Perhaps that is made up for by the fact that his WRs are not as good, and thus he'll have to throw a higher percentage of targets to the TEs.

 

[Rockchild]

Orton's stats in 15 games last year: 272/465 (58%) 2972 yds (6.4 y/a) 18/12 TD/INT 49 yds rushing 3 TD

Cutler in 16 games in 2007: 297/467 (63%) 3497 yds (7.5 y/a) 20/14 TD/INT 205 yds rushing 1 TD

My prediction for Cutler in 2009: 320/534 (60%) 3738 yds (7 y/a) 22/14 TD/INT 160 yds rushing 3 TD

15% increase in attempts from Orton last year/slight decrease in personal completion percentage and yards per attempt/10 yds rushing per game

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Orton was around 3,200 taking in a 16 game schedule, I can't see anyway that Cutler doesn't easily surpass that.

I see Cutler getting on the field more than last year but having less room to work with but increased scoring opportunties due to the defense but less talent around him so.

343 - 546 - 3,800 yards - 23 TD's - 15 ints - 180 yards - 1 td

 

[Banger]

Let me start by saying that I have serious man-love for Cutler. I think he's one of the best QB's in the league and Denver is going to kick themselves for a decade. I think going to Chicago from Denver is going to change his stats a bit...Chicago is going to have a much better defense than Denver which should mean more TOP, shorter fields, fewer attempts, fewer yards but more red zone action and potentially more TD's. He won't be playing from behind as much so he won't have to be so one dimensional and force passes so I think his int's will go down.

His weapons are not good by any stretch but he does have good TE's to lean on and Bennett could be dark horse (not a Hester believer). Good QB's can make good WR's from average ones (look at Favre and what he did for mediocre wr's) and I think Cutler with his arm and accuracy can put the ball into very tight windows and make average players look a lot better than they are.

347-555 4050 26 tds 12 ints 50-150-1

 

[boubucarow]

Some things to keep in mind...

According to Football Outsiders, the 08 Broncos offense starting field position average on the 26 yard line (worst in the league) while the 08 Bears offense average starting field position was the 33 yard line (best in the league).

The 08 Broncos were a top 5 offense in yards per drive and drive success rate but also were bottom 5 in turnovers per drive. The 08 Bears were bottom 5 in yards per drive and drive success rate but basically average in terms of turnovers per drive.

The 08 Broncos were bottom 2 in defensive yards per drive, points per drive, turnovers per drive, and drive success rate. The 08 Bears defense were 6th in yards per drive, 9th in points per drive, 12th in turnovers per drive, and 9th in drive success rate. There was virtually no difference in starting field position for the defenses.

 

[Banger]

Some things to keep in mind...According to Football Outsiders, the 08 Broncos offense starting field position average on the 26 yard line (worst in the league) while the 08 Bears offense average starting field position was the 33 yard line (best in the league).The 08 Broncos were a top 5 offense in yards per drive and drive success rate but also were bottom 5 in turnovers per drive. The 08 Bears were bottom 5 in yards per drive and drive success rate but basically average in terms of turnovers per drive.The 08 Broncos were bottom 2 in defensive yards per drive, points per drive, turnovers per drive, and drive success rate. The 08 Bears defense were 6th in yards per drive, 9th in points per drive, 12th in turnovers per drive, and 9th in drive success rate. There was virtually no difference in starting field position for the defenses.

It's really scary to think how bad the Denver defense would have been with an average QB at the helm. They were absolutely horrible WITH Cutler draining the clock, holding onto the ball and keeping drives alive despite the poor field position and lack of turnovers from the defense.

 

[Tau837]

Some things to keep in mind...

According to Football Outsiders, the 08 Broncos offense starting field position average on the 26 yard line (worst in the league) while the 08 Bears offense average starting field position was the 33 yard line (best in the league).

The 08 Broncos were a top 5 offense in yards per drive and drive success rate but also were bottom 5 in turnovers per drive. The 08 Bears were bottom 5 in yards per drive and drive success rate but basically average in terms of turnovers per drive.

The 08 Broncos were bottom 2 in defensive yards per drive, points per drive, turnovers per drive, and drive success rate. The 08 Bears defense were 6th in yards per drive, 9th in points per drive, 12th in turnovers per drive, and 9th in drive success rate. There was virtually no difference in starting field position for the defenses.

Good info. The bolded items probably had a lot to do with the dropoff in the number of offensive plays for the Bears from 2007 to 2008.

 

[Scotch Rocks]

I think there's massive overvaluing of Cutler going on based on two factors.

1. He had a reputation as a physically gifted QB coming out of college.

2. He was in a dream situation for a QB in Denver last year.

I feel people are combining these two things and making the iffy connection that Cutler's physical promise has been achieved, and that he's now gold wherever he goes.

To me, the question isn't settled yet. I see an emotionally immature player entering a QB death march, and a city that will eat him alive. I think the physical tools that served him well when he was throwing constantly to an offense that week-in/week-out was able to overmatch its opponents down the field, will lead to a huge surge in error production in the new city.

I sincerely feel Orton was a better QB for Chicago than Cutler will turn out to be - cerebral and careful, if not particularly gifted - and I see a lot of Grossman in Jay. If Orton holds on to the job in Denver, I think we're sixteen games away from a lot of suicidal Bears fans, as Orton's numbers are going to dwarf Cutler's.

I think we see 10 or 11 games of solid, but unspectacular production, 2 or three games of 170-0-3 as he tries to do too much with limited artillery, and maybe a game or two off midway, because a minor tweak to an ankle or something gives the coaching staff an excuse to sit him and get his head straight without causing a media stir.

260/500

3100

19 TD/19 INT

 

[Ozymandias]

I think there's massive overvaluing of Cutler going on based on two factors.1. He had a reputation as a physically gifted QB coming out of college.2. He was in a dream situation for a QB in Denver last year.I feel people are combining these two things and making the iffy connection that Cutler's physical promise has been achieved, and that he's now gold wherever he goes.To me, the question isn't settled yet. I see an emotionally immature player entering a QB death march, and a city that will eat him alive. I think the physical tools that served him well when he was throwing constantly to an offense that week-in/week-out was able to overmatch its opponents down the field, will lead to a huge surge in error production in the new city.I sincerely feel Orton was a better QB for Chicago than Cutler will turn out to be - cerebral and careful, if not particularly gifted - and I see a lot of Grossman in Jay. If Orton holds on to the job in Denver, I think we're sixteen games away from a lot of suicidal Bears fans, as Orton's numbers are going to dwarf Cutler's.I think we see 10 or 11 games of solid, but unspectacular production, 2 or three games of 170-0-3 as he tries to do too much with limited artillery, and maybe a game or two off midway, because a minor tweak to an ankle or something gives the coaching staff an excuse to sit him and get his head straight without causing a media stir.260/500310019 TD/19 INT

Are you McDaniels' brother?

 

[Banger]

I think there's massive overvaluing of Cutler going on based on two factors.1. He had a reputation as a physically gifted QB coming out of college.2. He was in a dream situation for a QB in Denver last year.I feel people are combining these two things and making the iffy connection that Cutler's physical promise has been achieved, and that he's now gold wherever he goes.To me, the question isn't settled yet. I see an emotionally immature player entering a QB death march, and a city that will eat him alive. I think the physical tools that served him well when he was throwing constantly to an offense that week-in/week-out was able to overmatch its opponents down the field, will lead to a huge surge in error production in the new city.I sincerely feel Orton was a better QB for Chicago than Cutler will turn out to be - cerebral and careful, if not particularly gifted - and I see a lot of Grossman in Jay. If Orton holds on to the job in Denver, I think we're sixteen games away from a lot of suicidal Bears fans, as Orton's numbers are going to dwarf Cutler's.I think we see 10 or 11 games of solid, but unspectacular production, 2 or three games of 170-0-3 as he tries to do too much with limited artillery, and maybe a game or two off midway, because a minor tweak to an ankle or something gives the coaching staff an excuse to sit him and get his head straight without causing a media stir.260/500310019 TD/19 INT

I really couldn't disagree with you more. This has nothing to do with college, at least for me and everything to do with my eyeballs watching him and seeing the plays he makes. What's so dreamy about having the worst starting field position in the league and a defense that forces you into a one dimensional game mid 2nd quarter? The Rams, Seahawks, Chiefs, Lions and Raiders were in a similar dreamy position with an awful defense yet they didn't seem to fare quite as well as the Bronco's offense.I don't want to be rude but I really think you need to watch Cutler more because comparing Orton or Grossman to him is a complete joke.

 

[Tanner9919]

I see Cutler having a rude awakening in his first year in Chicago. His weapons are not even close to what he had in Denver and Chicago's defense will keep them in games which to me translates to less attempts for Cutler (they won't be trailing every game and forced to throw). I think another factor will have an effect on Cutler - the weather. Yes, I know Denver is a cold weather city also, but go to the weather channel and check out the averages for the two cities in the fall/winter. Chicago is typically 10 to 15 degrees colder and a heck of a lot more windy. I actually think Chicago will be really good this year, and should be playoff bound. That said, I think Cutler will be a better NFL QB than a fantasy QB.

3200 yards

20 TD's

16 INT's

100 rushing yards

1 Rushing TD

Fair points RE: weapons not the same as in Denver.I'm of the opinion that he'll actually do better in Chicago than in Denver. Talent always shines through ,and Cutler has loads of it! He'll be asked to do less in Chicago,so his INT's are likely to drop considerably..He has a much better running game to work with, a better , healthier, more reliable TE in Olsen than any scrub he had in Denver. His WR's are weaker, yes, but Hester is no chump. Kyle Orton threw 18 td to 12 int..Kyle Orton!

Last year defenses stacked the line because of lack of talent at the QB position ( Orton/Grossman)..Cutler will make defenses pay when they bring that safety down in the box, he's a better QB than anyone Chicago had last season..

Chicago also plays against lesser pass defenses in the NFC North - Minnesota, GB, Detroit..

3800/24 td/13 int..

I think Cutler puts Olsen into the upper echelon of NFL TE's this season, upwards of 70 recs...

 

[Tau837]

He has a much better running game to work with

Based on what?Last year, Denver's running game produced 387/1862/15 (4.8 ypc)... and Football Outsiders ranked Denver's OL as the best for run blocking.

Last year, Chicago's running game produced 434/1673/15 (3.9 ypc).

Sure, Chicago will probably run more often (though in 2007, Denver ran more than Chicago, and may have again last year if not for a slew of RB injuries), but it's hard to see the Bears RBs being more effective. How does that help Cutler to be better in Chicago?

 

[mikel0254]

He has a much better running game to work with

Based on what?Last year, Denver's running game produced 387/1862/15 (4.8 ypc)... and Football Outsiders ranked Denver's OL as the best for run blocking.

Last year, Chicago's running game produced 434/1673/15 (3.9 ypc).

Sure, Chicago will probably run more often (though in 2007, Denver ran more than Chicago, and may have again last year if not for a slew of RB injuries), but it's hard to see the Bears RBs being more effective. How does that help Cutler to be better in Chicago?

Just b/c Forte got yards last year, doesn't tell the whole story. He averaged less than 4 yards a carry and he was the only guy in town getting carries. All in all, Chicago's run game was ranked 27th in the league and Denver's was 3rd when looking at yards per rush.

 

[Banger]

He has a much better running game to work with

Based on what?Last year, Denver's running game produced 387/1862/15 (4.8 ypc)... and Football Outsiders ranked Denver's OL as the best for run blocking.

Last year, Chicago's running game produced 434/1673/15 (3.9 ypc).

Sure, Chicago will probably run more often (though in 2007, Denver ran more than Chicago, and may have again last year if not for a slew of RB injuries), but it's hard to see the Bears RBs being more effective. How does that help Cutler to be better in Chicago?

Football isn't played in a vacuum as you well know and a good QB under center can dramatically change the way a defense will play you. If teams stuffed 8-9 in the box to stop the run Cutler would destroy them with his wr's one on one. The defense will play a QB like Cutler FAR differently than they will a QB like Orton so comparing the ypc between the two are pretty much apples and oranges as they will likely change a good bit in opposite directions this year. Defenses will stack the box and dare a QB like Orton to beat them and he won't be able to while Cutler will have his wr's marching in the end zone. So teams have to pick their poison with a QB like Cutler and will likely defend the pass and give up the run and make them pick up 1st downs as opposed to giving up TD's. The stacked boxes obviously hurt a RB's ypc so a RB like Forte should definitely benefit by having Cutler as his QB because now teams will have to respect the pass. This is why the Bears went out and got him.

 

[Tau837]

He has a much better running game to work with

Based on what?Last year, Denver's running game produced 387/1862/15 (4.8 ypc)... and Football Outsiders ranked Denver's OL as the best for run blocking.

Last year, Chicago's running game produced 434/1673/15 (3.9 ypc).

Sure, Chicago will probably run more often (though in 2007, Denver ran more than Chicago, and may have again last year if not for a slew of RB injuries), but it's hard to see the Bears RBs being more effective. How does that help Cutler to be better in Chicago?

Football isn't played in a vacuum as you well know and a good QB under center can dramatically change the way a defense will play you. If teams stuffed 8-9 in the box to stop the run Cutler would destroy them with his wr's one on one. The defense will play a QB like Cutler FAR differently than they will a QB like Orton so comparing the ypc between the two are pretty much apples and oranges as they will likely change a good bit in opposite directions this year. Defenses will stack the box and dare a QB like Orton to beat them and he won't be able to while Cutler will have his wr's marching in the end zone. So teams have to pick their poison with a QB like Cutler and will likely defend the pass and give up the run and make them pick up 1st downs as opposed to giving up TD's. The stacked boxes obviously hurt a RB's ypc so a RB like Forte should definitely benefit by having Cutler as his QB because now teams will have to respect the pass. This is why the Bears went out and got him.

This is all well and good, but Tanner was citing a better running game in Chicago as one reason Cutler will be better in Chicago than in Denver. It's a circular argument to say that the only reason Denver's running game was better than Chicago's last year was the difference between Cutler and Orton... so switching Cutler and Orton will make Chicago's running game better than Denver's... which will help Cutler to be better in Chicago than he was in Denver.I suppose that may be true if the Bears RBs are more talented than the Broncos RBs, but there is no real evidence to back up such a claim, and that also completely ignores the difference in the offensive lines and offensive schemes/playcalling. It also assumes it is the QB only, and not the whole passing game, that opens up things for the running game... I suspect defenses defending Cutler last year, with Marshall, Royal, Stokley, and Scheffler, were a bit more concerned about downfield passing than they will be this year with Hester, Bennett, Davis, Olsen, et al.

The only evidence we have, along with reasonable assumptions about the other factors outlined above, supports the position that Chicago will not have a better running game this year than Denver did last year.

 

[Banger]

He has a much better running game to work with

Based on what?Last year, Denver's running game produced 387/1862/15 (4.8 ypc)... and Football Outsiders ranked Denver's OL as the best for run blocking.

Last year, Chicago's running game produced 434/1673/15 (3.9 ypc).

Sure, Chicago will probably run more often (though in 2007, Denver ran more than Chicago, and may have again last year if not for a slew of RB injuries), but it's hard to see the Bears RBs being more effective. How does that help Cutler to be better in Chicago?

Football isn't played in a vacuum as you well know and a good QB under center can dramatically change the way a defense will play you. If teams stuffed 8-9 in the box to stop the run Cutler would destroy them with his wr's one on one. The defense will play a QB like Cutler FAR differently than they will a QB like Orton so comparing the ypc between the two are pretty much apples and oranges as they will likely change a good bit in opposite directions this year. Defenses will stack the box and dare a QB like Orton to beat them and he won't be able to while Cutler will have his wr's marching in the end zone. So teams have to pick their poison with a QB like Cutler and will likely defend the pass and give up the run and make them pick up 1st downs as opposed to giving up TD's. The stacked boxes obviously hurt a RB's ypc so a RB like Forte should definitely benefit by having Cutler as his QB because now teams will have to respect the pass. This is why the Bears went out and got him.

This is all well and good, but Tanner was citing a better running game in Chicago as one reason Cutler will be better in Chicago than in Denver. It's a circular argument to say that the only reason Denver's running game was better than Chicago's last year was the difference between Cutler and Orton... so switching Cutler and Orton will make Chicago's running game better than Denver's... which will help Cutler to be better in Chicago than he was in Denver.I suppose that may be true if the Bears RBs are more talented than the Broncos RBs, but there is no real evidence to back up such a claim, and that also completely ignores the difference in the offensive lines and offensive schemes/playcalling. It also assumes it is the QB only, and not the whole passing game, that opens up things for the running game... I suspect defenses defending Cutler last year, with Marshall, Royal, Stokley, and Scheffler, were a bit more concerned about downfield passing than they will be this year with Hester, Bennett, Davis, Olsen, et al.

The only evidence we have, along with reasonable assumptions about the other factors outlined above, supports the position that Chicago will not have a better running game this year than Denver did last year.

I'm not naive enough to think that the sole difference between the 2 teams running games were the QB's. How much of a role the QB plays in a RB's success is obviously debatable but I happen to think it can be substantial. I don't think switching the 2 qb's will make Chicago's running game better than Denver's but I do think switching the QB's will make Chicago's running game this year better than Chicago's running game last year and I also think the Denver's running game may decline but that will be dependent on Moreno as I think he's probably more talented than anyone they had on their roster last year as well as scheme and the Oline's ability to execute the scheme. C'mon you don't think that Forte is better than the trash they had in Denver last year? The starting RBs for Denver last year are all looking to make an NFL team this year after being starters last year. If they had talent teams would be lining up to get them.

IMO the QB is the passing game because what good is having all-pro wr's if you can't get them the ball...look at Moss/Welker or Chad Johnson/Housh last year. They went from ranked 1, 6, 7 and 11 in '07 to 10, 21, 31 and 50 in '08 all due to the QB. The wr's in large part are a product of the QB and if you can't stay in the pocket and deliver the ball quickly and accurately it doesn't matter how good your wr's are you aren't going to put up great numbers.

Scheme and O-lines are definitely an issue but the main schemer is now gone and who knows how effective McDaniel's scheme will be this year. Denver has the edge in O-line talent I think but with a change in scheme who knows how effective they will be. Denver has had a top O-line for years and I don't think it's because they've always had the best talent I think it was due largely to the Shanny's scheme. Again Shanny is gone so we'll have to see how new blocking schemes, new protection schemes will be absorbed an executed in Denver because consistency at the Oline is a key and they've consistently had the same scheme for years and now it's changing.

ETA...after rereading your post I think I'm arguing something else...I don't think Chicago's run offense will be better this year than Denver's last year. I do think that Denver will regress and Chicago will improve and I wouldn't be suprised if Chicago's run game was >= to Denver this year.

 

[TitusIII]

Watched/attended more than a few Bears games last season, and the one thing that sticks in my mind regarding that offense was its predictability. Orton's borderline accuracy on throws longer than 15 yards/mediocre WR's/average pass-blocking, poor run-blocking offensive line/Ron Turner all contributed to the problem. Quite simply, the Chicago offense wasn't much of a challenge for defensive coordinators.

On the plus side(and it's pretty small...) the Devin Hester-effect gave the Bears excellent field position more often than not, but very rarely did Chicago capitalize on that advantage. Forte isn't an elite back by any stretch of the imagination, but I do believe most teams would be happy with him as their starting running back. Greg Olsen(receiving) and Desmond Clark(blocking) are perfect compliments at the TE position, and Robbie Gould is the best kicker the Bears have had in quite some time. Nevertheless, once opposing defenses started to dominate the Bears line and hit Forte at or around the LOS(this pattern emerged in all but a few games), the burden shifted to Orton's shoulder. For all the flack he received from Bears fans as the season wore on, I thought Orton's play was excellent before he injured his knee.

Enter Jay Cutler

The offensive line has been up-graded(on paper), and Hester/Olsen/Forte should at least show minimal improvement. On the other hand, Cutler needs to learn a new system, and his surrounding talent is still questionable. If the Bears defense can still play at a high level, and the ST's continue to excel, 25 TD's isn't out of the question, assuming Cutler truly is on the path to NFL stardom. Since that is best case, I'm expecting something along the lines of:

3000 yards, 20 TD's and 15 INT's...something very similar to what he did in 2007. 2010 is the year I expect Cutler to begin to play like a legit FF stud, if it is ever going to happen in Chicago.

 

[Tau837]

ETA...after rereading your post I think I'm arguing something else...I don't think Chicago's run offense will be better this year than Denver's last year. I do think that Denver will regress and Chicago will improve and I wouldn't be suprised if Chicago's run game was >= to Denver this year.

Yes, I was initially responding to Tanner's assertion that Cutler will have a better running game in Chicago than he had in Denver as one reason Cutler will be better in Chicago than he was in Denver. I understood him to be saying (Chicago running game 2009 > Denver running game 2008), which I disagreed with.I never said Chicago's running game in 2009 won't be better than it was in 2008. The change from Orton to Cutler, plus hopefully at least marginal OL improvements should make for an improvement. Of course, getting back to what that does for Cutler in comparison to his great year last year, an improved running game will probably encourage the Bears to run more, given that seems to be their preference when possible, so that will limit Cutler's passing attempts, at least compared to the unusually high 616 attempts last season.Bottom line is I disagree with the notion put forth by Tanner that Cutler will be better in Chicago this year than he was last year in Denver. I just focused on his statement about the running game when I responded since I thought it was the lowest-hanging fruit.ETA: And I don't necessarily think that Denver's running game will be significantly worse this year... they went from Cutler to Orton, but still have good enough targets that the passing game should be good enough to keep the defense honest. They still have a great OL, and they upgraded at RB. (Of course, they are also changing offenses, so that certainly makes it a bit harder to forecast.)

 

[Banger]

ETA...after rereading your post I think I'm arguing something else...I don't think Chicago's run offense will be better this year than Denver's last year. I do think that Denver will regress and Chicago will improve and I wouldn't be suprised if Chicago's run game was >= to Denver this year.

Yes, I was initially responding to Tanner's assertion that Cutler will have a better running game in Chicago than he had in Denver as one reason Cutler will be better in Chicago than he was in Denver. I understood him to be saying (Chicago running game 2009 > Denver running game 2008), which I disagreed with.I never said Chicago's running game in 2009 won't be better than it was in 2008. The change from Orton to Cutler, plus hopefully at least marginal OL improvements should make for an improvement. Of course, getting back to what that does for Cutler in comparison to his great year last year, an improved running game will probably encourage the Bears to run more, given that seems to be their preference when possible, so that will limit Cutler's passing attempts, at least compared to the unusually high 616 attempts last season.Bottom line is I disagree with the notion put forth by Tanner that Cutler will be better in Chicago this year than he was last year in Denver. I just focused on his statement about the running game when I responded since I thought it was the lowest-hanging fruit.ETA: And I don't necessarily think that Denver's running game will be significantly worse this year... they went from Cutler to Orton, but still have good enough targets that the passing game should be good enough to keep the defense honest. They still have a great OL, and they upgraded at RB. (Of course, they are also changing offenses, so that certainly makes it a bit harder to forecast.)

Good stuff JWB.