Player Spotlight: John Beck, Chad Henne & Josh McCown (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: John Beck, Chad Henne & Josh McCown, QB, Miami Dolphins

Player Page Link: John Beck Player Page

Player Page Link: Chad Henne Player Page

Player Page Link: Josh McCown Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Jason Wood]

This is a situation up in the air, and may not get settled until the waning moments of training camp. So unlike most Spotlight threads, treat this as a chance to compare and contrast the QBs on the roster. If you think one of the QBs will be the primary starter, feel free to just focus on them (with projections!) but if you see this as a committee approach, feel free to make your case and include projections for multiple QBs.

 

[FUBAR]

Redraft - stay away

Dynasty - I'm taking Henne in every league I can

no projections, but a simple answer.

 

[jonboltz]

No projections, cause who really would have a clue with this...

I'm going to say that Beck surprises a few people this year, and puts up a mediocre year.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Beck reminds me of Chris Weinke. They both were older qbs who were able to dominate much younger competition in college. When Weinke went into the NFL and couldn't bully opposing defenses he became the worst starter in the league. I could see something similar happening to John Beck. Last season he showed nothing.

Chad Henne is a rookie qb so you can't expect much from him. He'll probably get an opportunity to play if/when the Dolphins fall out of playoff contention. More or less 2008 is a project season for him. Anything positive that he can give the team (wins, solid qb play) will be an unexpected bonus.

Josh McCown is the most experienced of the bunch and most talented so far so unless he gets hurt or either of the previous 2 qbs play unexpectedly well I expect him to be the starter for the beginning and for the majority of the season. Still he's playing on the worst team in the NFL with no real offensive weapons of note outside of a fast wr in Ted Ginn Jr. and an injured rb in Ronnie Brown. And there's still the matter of him being Josh McCown playing for his 4th team in 4 seasons.

So to bottom line it:

John Beck: Bust.

Chad Henne: Rookie who may start a couple of games.

Josh McCown: Experienced journeyman.

Fantasy-wise nothing to get excited about.

 

[Gatorman]

while I believe this discussion will only matter to dynasty players or guys in start 2 qb leagues, I will chime in...

I believe the dolphins starter this year will be: John Beck. The staff in Miami has been impressed b him this offseason. McCown was brought in to compete, and Henne is really an afterthought, at least for this year.

The dolphins had a chance to draft henne at 32 and passed. Why was that? They said they liked him, and had no idea that he (and Brohm for that matter) would both still be on the board in the 50s. It never mocked out that way. In my mind, the dolphins were preparing to draft another guy at QB in this draft and bring him along, but henne fell into their lap in the late second. What this means is that their "project" QB has a little more pedigree and experience than they thought he would, but he is still there as a project.

So that leaves beck and McCown for 2008 (or at least the bulk of 2008). I think that the thinking here is that we need to know if Beck or Henne are oing to be our Tony Romo, so Beck gets first shot (in Training Camp and Season) with Henne as the #2 guy late in the season. Mccown is here only if those other two look way over their head.

Predictions here are hard. The main thing to note for any dolphin QB (comparing this year vs years past) is 1) They are going to run a lot, and 2) they will (should) have better line play this year. Beck looked bad last year for the same reason the dolphins looked bad last year: There were too many defensive players in their backfield. Assuming this O line becomes an Average O line, you should see an uptick in stats for the running game and for the passing game. since the passing game last year went through ronnie brown, I do not see his numbers really going up, but I do see the QB for the fins hovering at a ceiling of 240 yards per game with 1.5 TDs and 1 int per game.

Soooo..

John Beck: 2400 yards passing, 14 TDs 10 Ints

Chad Henne:800 yards passing 3 TDs, 2 ints

McCown: 200 yards 2 tds 2 ints

Training camp will definitely help this picture become clearer, but this is my take for now.

 

[Wildman]

I'm leaning in Beck's direction. Although I understand that Beck and Weinke share the fact they were both older when they transitioned to the NFL, Chad Henne and Weinke are more similar as players.

Henne has a strong arm, but is quite immobile in the pocket. He needs to work on sliding away from pressure, because he definitely lacks the wheels to elude pressure with speed or quickness. This is probably his greatest weakness. USC ate his lunch with pressure last year.

Beck is pretty mobile. He moves well in the pocket and I think his rookie year is something one can write off without concluding he's a bust. I like his chances of developing into a capable starter. He's a cerebral player with a great work ethic and enough arm strength and mobility to get the job done. I may be wrong here, but for those who compared Cleo Lemon favorably to John Beck, am I correct to say Lemon had Chris Chambers and Ronnie Brown in his arsenal when he started, but Beck didn't? I should have looked this up beforehand, but just commenting quickly at this moment.

McCown has the athleticism, arm, and experience but I'm not sure he's the sharpest tool in the shed when it comes to being a long term answer.

I believe Beck gets every chance to keep the job with a good performance in camp. The potential for a rotation here does make me nervous because I'd hate to see the Dolphins organization of itchy trigger fingers and not give their signal caller a chance to develop. I do think Miami will be able to run the football and that should help a young QB.

I think the depth chart will be: Beck, McCown, and Henne.

If the Dolphins running game looks good and the defense is playing well, then they might be quick to pull Beck for McCown.

 

[Duckboy]

Tough call on this crew. Obviously Henne is the one that this management team drafted, so long-term he would look to be the best prospect. For this year, much less clear. Beck should get the majority of the year (especially with McCown's bad chainsaw habits), but they will want to see Chad play at some point.

Beck: 180/320, 1920 yds, 9 TDs/9 INTs, 30/120/1 rush - QB30

Henne: 58/110, 690 yds, 4 TDs/5 INTs, 6/10 rush - QB40

McCown: 40/75, 525 yds, 3 TDs/3 INTs, 14/14 rush - QB45

Not much for a redraft even in deep leagues.

 

[Our Gang]

It will be a training camp battle between Beck and McCown. Henne may not even see the field especially if he doesn't get his contract signed soon. While I beleive that Beck is the better QB, McCown will get the early nod because of his NFL experience. Tuna and Co do not want to be 5 or 6 games into the season without a win. Beck will come in intermitently, and will eventually start around game 8. Miami needs to find out what they have on Beck.

My Progections:

McCown: 100/195 1660 8/8

Beck: 200/320 1830 12/10

Henne: 30/60 380 1/2

 

[Jon_Moore]

On the positive side, Ronnie Brown is one of the most talented backs in the league, and Ricky is no schmuck. Ginn's got speed, and Wilford was good in his Jax Days.

I'm still not sold on this offensive line, and the team has no real go to receiver. Ronnie is coming off a major knee injury, and Ricky has been in and out so much, he's not the guy he once was.

I think McCown is the best QB on the team, he has a big arm and get get the ball down the field,and will start early on, but later they'll give it to Henne and hope he's the QB of the future type---I believe he may be.

McCown--10 Games

177/305

1860 Yards

9 TDs

11 Ints

31 Rushes

155 Yards

1 TD

Henne---5 games

92/170

1156 Yards

7 TD

5 INT

8 Rushes

10 Yards

Beck--1 game---I think he'll find 30ish throws via injury fill in

16/27

160 Yards

1 TD

2 INT

3 Rushes

7 Yards

---------------------

285/502

3176 Yards

17 TDs

18 ints

42 Rushes

172 Yards

1 TD

Seems like Beck/McCown have had plenty of fumbles in their day, I'd say sprinkle in about 7 lost fumbles between the 3

 

[Captain Spaulding]

Despite what happens after preseason games, I see another revolving door season for the Dolphins at QB. It might be a situation like Cleveland last year. One guy (Frye) plays better in the preseason, starts the season and stinks up the joint...then they make a move to an unproven guy who takes over and becomes pro-bowl material. Bad news is the Dolphins don't have the weapons that Cleveland has. I'd stay clear and just wait for waiver wire on a Dolphin QB, if your that desperate.