Player Spotlight: Joseph Addai (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Player Page Link: Joseph Addai Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[travdogg]

People seem to think 300 touches are his limit, as though if a guy doesn't do something his 1st 2 years in the league he never will. I think he'll easily clear 300 touches this year. I also believe Indy will return to being the leagues most explosive offense.

I'll go with:

290 carries

1,300 yards

14 TD's

40 catches

300 yards

3 TD's

I don't think Rhodes is a threat at all(I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't even win the backup job)

 

[shadyridr]

1. He clearly wore down last year

2. Hes clearly VERY talented

3. Hes in a top notch offense and will get a good number of carries and TDs

IMO hes still a top 5 RB but that being said I think Indy limits his touches a little more than last year. He was pretty horrible in the 2nd half last year (outside of all the TDs).

I got him ranked #7 right now but barely behind Gore & Barber. Id probably draft him ahead of those guys though.

256, 1152 yds, 12 tds, 45 rec, 360 yds, 2 tds

 

[The Man with the Plan]

If the Colts O-line can stay healthy this season then I like Joseph Addai a lot. There were times when the Colts were without both offensive tackles Ryan Diem and Tony Ugoh. Not surprisingly Addai struggled running the football.

He's a good running back in a great offensive situation but that goes without saying.. I

 

[switz]

Joseph Addai is a top-5 talent at the RB position, though his skills do not wow a lot of people on these boards. Every he does looks so simple, that a lot of times it looks like he's not doing anything special, but that's far from the truth.

Last year, his first year starting, he finished top-5, albeit in a down year overall for FF RBs. He only played 15 games, and was limited in others, since he suffered an injury early in the year. The offensive line also had numerous troubles, which makes Addai's success more significant.

I don't see any reason to project less than 280-290 carries, and he should exceed 30 catches.

I'd expect 1400 yards rushing, and 300 yards receiving. He is a potential double digit TD scorer, I would estimate 9-10.

 

[rzrback77]

Joseph Addai has a multi-purpose jack of all trades and master of none notoriety. He gets sneaky extra yards when there appears to be nothing there. He has value because of his nice skills and his outstanding opportunity. As already mentioned, he seemed to wear down as the year went on and that's why I think Indy got Dom Rhodes back. Let's explore the game by game a little.

First half of the season, Addai played in 7 of the 8 games. He topped 100 yards rushing four times and never had less than 72 yards rushing in a game. He averaged 100 per game. He scored nine TDs. He averaged just over 3 catches per game and almost 30 yards receiving (with a high of 114).

Second half of the season, Addai played in all 8 games, but saw limited action in the last two. He never topped 72 yards rushing in any game. Half of those six games he had under fifty yards rushing. He averaged 53 yards rushing in those games. He scored six TDs. He averaged just under 3 catches per game and just shy of 25 yards receiving in those same six games.

Quite a drop off also in the number of carries. In the first half, he had over twenty in five and not less than 16. Second half, only three over twenty.

I think that Rhodes will lessen Addai's load more than folks expect.

Joseph Addai 230 carries 1012 yards 4.4 ypc 50 targ 35 rec 297 yds 8.5 ypc and 9 TDs

 

[BigRed]

Coming into the league Addai had a rep of not being a "workhorse" back you could give a ton of carries and that's held true - I don't see why it should suddenly change. He's a safe but boring pick, being a near lock for good numbers but very unlikely to be great. Mid-1st round value is about right.

 

[Tanner9919]

Joseph Addai is a top-5 talent at the RB position, though his skills do not wow a lot of people on these boards. Every he does looks so simple, that a lot of times it looks like he's not doing anything special, but that's far from the truth.Last year, his first year starting, he finished top-5, albeit in a down year overall for FF RBs. He only played 15 games, and was limited in others, since he suffered an injury early in the year. The offensive line also had numerous troubles, which makes Addai's success more significant.I don't see any reason to project less than 280-290 carries, and he should exceed 30 catches.I'd expect 1400 yards rushing, and 300 yards receiving. He is a potential double digit TD scorer, I would estimate 9-10.

 

[switz]

Second half of the season, Addai played in all 8 games, but saw limited action in the last two. He never topped 72 yards rushing in any game. Half of those six games he had under fifty yards rushing. He averaged 53 yards rushing in those games. He scored six TDs. He averaged just under 3 catches per game and just shy of 25 yards receiving in those same six games.Joseph Addai 230 carries 1012 yards 4.4 ypc 50 targ 35 rec 297 yds 8.5 ypc and 9 TDs

You actually project him to do less than when Rhodes was starting and he was the backup? Don't you think that's a bit unrealistic?Do you think that perhaps the injury cause him to drop off in the second half? Or maybe when Ugoh got injured and the OL fell apart?Why does everyone ignore the team situation when it comes to Addai, but put the blame solely on the team when it comes to Steven Jackson?

 

[rzrback77]

Second half of the season, Addai played in all 8 games, but saw limited action in the last two. He never topped 72 yards rushing in any game. Half of those six games he had under fifty yards rushing. He averaged 53 yards rushing in those games. He scored six TDs. He averaged just under 3 catches per game and just shy of 25 yards receiving in those same six games.

Joseph Addai 230 carries 1012 yards 4.4 ypc 50 targ 35 rec 297 yds 8.5 ypc and 9 TDs

You actually project him to do less than when Rhodes was starting and he was the backup? Don't you think that's a bit unrealistic? I actually am projecting almost exactly what he had in 06, not less.Do you think that perhaps the injury cause him to drop off in the second half? Or maybe when Ugoh got injured and the OL fell apart? Probably both as well as general performance decline

Why does everyone ignore the team situation when it comes to Addai, but put the blame solely on the team when it comes to Steven Jackson? I'm not everyone. Just compared our two projections and you have Addai for 50 to 60 more carries, 3 or 4 per game. You also call for 4.8 ypc over my 4.4, but it results in only 380 yards difference. Our TDs and reception yardage are eqaul. So the difference is about 39 points on the year or less than 2.5 per game. I think that with Rhodes return, the Colts share the load more than last year, or pass more often.

 

[switz]

Second half of the season, Addai played in all 8 games, but saw limited action in the last two. He never topped 72 yards rushing in any game. Half of those six games he had under fifty yards rushing. He averaged 53 yards rushing in those games. He scored six TDs. He averaged just under 3 catches per game and just shy of 25 yards receiving in those same six games.

Joseph Addai 230 carries 1012 yards 4.4 ypc 50 targ 35 rec 297 yds 8.5 ypc and 9 TDs

You actually project him to do less than when Rhodes was starting and he was the backup? Don\'t you think that\'s a bit unrealistic?

I actually am projecting almost exactly what he had in 06, not less.

No, in \'06 he ran for 1,081 yards, NOT 1012 (less than either of his seasons so far), he\'s had over 40 catches both season, you project 35. His receiving yards has been 325 MINIMUM over the past two season, you project 297. You\'re projecting WAY LESS than his rookie season, or anything near realistic, barring him missing several games with an injury.

Do you think that perhaps the injury cause him to drop off in the second half? Or maybe when Ugoh got injured and the OL fell apart?

Probably both as well as general performance decline

Right... that\'s realistic. Last season he opened the season improved from \'06. Then he got injured and the line fell to pieces. But it\'s \"his decline\" that\'s likely the problem. Yet there was no evidence of decline prior to the injury or the OL problems. I just see how you can ignore the obvious cause of Addai\'s performance falling off, and attribute it to something there\'s no evidence of...

Why does everyone ignore the team situation when it comes to Addai, but put the blame solely on the team when it comes to Steven Jackson?

I\'m not everyone. Just compared our two projections and you have Addai for 50 to 60 more carries, 3 or 4 per game. You also call for 4.8 ypc over my 4.4, but it results in only 380 yards difference. Our TDs and reception yardage are eqaul. So the difference is about 39 points on the year or less than 2.5 per game. I think that with Rhodes return, the Colts share the load more than last year, or pass more often.

Passing more = not likely, if you look at the Colts. When they have a healthy running game they pass about 530 times, when they don\'t, they pass between 550-560 times. Last season they passed more, as Addai had the injury, and KK stunk. Funny thing is that was actually about the same as when Rhodes was the lead back. To think they are going to increase with Addai as their start isn\'t realistic.Share the load more? Keith had 121 carries last season, and Dungy is NOT an RBBC coach. The only reason there was RBBC in \'06 was because they wanted Addai to learn the system, and in \'07 because Addai got injured.

Only 380 yards? That\'s a pretty big difference. Receptions, I say over 30, you do not. That\'s not equal.

And my projection was very conservative. I expect tremendous improvement over last season, like the first 6 weeks of last year projected over a whole season. Honestly, to project even that same as his rookie season is ridiculous.

I just... I\'m not sure you know much about the Colts when I see your projection. Or you are one of the people on this board who just dislikes Addai, perhaps because FBGs were off base about Addai when he came out. I don\'t know... I just dont\' see how people continually knock Addai when all he\'s done is performed.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Joseph Addai proved last year he's the guy who's going to lead the team on the ground on Indianapolis. Any starting player on the same team as Peyton Manning becomes a starting option for fantasy teams and any starting running back worth their shirt becomes a top 5 guy.

Peyton Manning showed last year he's willing to give his offensive line and Addai a shot to run the ball in when inside the 5 yard line. His Td's increased from 7 to 12 last year and it's only a sign of things to come.

1150 yards rushing, 13 td's 48 receptions for 3 td's

 

[Jon_Moore]

In the first half of last season, Addai averaged over 20 carries and a 4.7 YPC

In the 2nd half of last season, Addai averaged right at 16 carries and a 3.3 YPC.

It could suggest he really wore down as the season went, or it could be due to the injuries on the o-line. In any event, the combination of that and the resigning of Dominic Rhodes makes one think he won't be seeing 300 carries any time soon. Harrison was out all last year and may be done, but with the emergence of Dallas Clark, and the hopeful improvement in the offense of Gonzalez, the Colts may look to air it out a bit more this year.

Ultimately, there won't be a lot more carries for Addai this year. The offense is exceptioinal, and they put the ball in his hands around the end zone. He'll score enough TDs to offset the lack of touches. If they use Rhodes more, he'll have fresher legs later in the year and that YPC should avoid deflation.

244 Carries

1122 Yards

11 TDs

48 Receptions

374 Yards

4 TDs

 

[Afro Samurai]

Addai is the complete package

280 carries

1300 yards

55 catches

400 yards

14 TD (total)

 

[Max Power]

People love to dismiss the fact that the Colts won the SB using a RBBC. I doubt Dungy cares who gets the carries as long as the job get done.

I do expect Rhodes to get the #2 job and get 6-12 carries a game.

Just to clear the air...Addai is a nice RB, but to those calling him a top 5 talent He is just in a top 5 situation right now.

 

[Jon_Moore]

People love to dismiss the fact that the Colts won the SB using a RBBC. I doubt Dungy cares who gets the carries as long as the job get done.

I do expect Rhodes to get the #2 job and get 6-12 carries a game.

Just to clear the air...Addai is a nice RB, but to those calling him a top 5 talent He is just in a top 5 situation right now.

I like this assesment. I think he'll still end up top 5 given the situation, but he's been sliding down my draft board in recent weeks. I had him at 2 once upon a time, now he's at 5, and if the coaches start hinting at a RBBC with Rodes's return....

 

[Afro Samurai]

I wouldn't be so quick to say he's not a top 5 talent. When you start looking at NFL running backs, they're aren't a lot of guys who can do all the things he does. He's got speed to get to the outside, the power to run inside, he catches as well as many wide receivers, he blocks well, etc.

You can find plenty of guys that are better at certain things, but I can't think of many that do everything as well as Addai does. LT, Peterson, maybe Steven Jackson but that's about it.

 

[BigRed]

His speed, power, etc are all at most "pretty good" - not great. Put him on a notably lesser team and his numbers would shrink dramatically IMO.

 

[Addai's Adidas]

He will be bigger and more durable this year. Finally growing into the NFL. 260/1300/13, 45/300/3

 

[unckeyherb]

His speed, power, etc are all at most "pretty good" - not great. Put him on a notably lesser team and his numbers would shrink dramatically IMO.

not for nothing, but if you put LT, ADP, Westy in a worse situation they all have dramatically shrunken numbers. You think ADP would have had his huge games if it weren't for Hutchinson opening holes the size of Rhode Island? You think Westy still gets 700-800 yards receiving if not for a QB that locks into him 15 times a game? Come on, of course he is in a good situation. There have not been many top RB's that were in legitimately horrible situations (frankly, Barry is the only one that immediately comes to mind). You aren't drafting him for his natural ability (though I think he gets sold short on all counts.) you are drafting him for what he can do for your fantasy team. 1400 rushing, 300 receiving 15 TD's

 

[zamboni]

His speed, power, etc are all at most "pretty good" - not great. Put him on a notably lesser team and his numbers would shrink dramatically IMO.

not for nothing, but if you put LT, ADP, Westy in a worse situation they all have dramatically shrunken numbers.

Actually, LT was in a bad situation his first few years, but still put up stellar numbers. Of course, he's special.Your point on other examples is probably well-taken though.

 

[switz]

His speed, power, etc are all at most "pretty good" - not great. Put him on a notably lesser team and his numbers would shrink dramatically IMO.

 

[TheFanatic]

His speed, power, etc are all at most "pretty good" - not great. Put him on a notably lesser team and his numbers would shrink dramatically IMO.

not for nothing, but if you put LT, ADP, Westy in a worse situation they all have dramatically shrunken numbers. You think ADP would have had his huge games if it weren't for Hutchinson opening holes the size of Rhode Island? You think Westy still gets 700-800 yards receiving if not for a QB that locks into him 15 times a game? Come on, of course he is in a good situation. There have not been many top RB's that were in legitimately horrible situations (frankly, Barry is the only one that immediately comes to mind). You aren't drafting him for his natural ability (though I think he gets sold short on all counts.) you are drafting him for what he can do for your fantasy team.

1400 rushing, 300 receiving 15 TD's

Well you have to admit that RI is the smallest of the 50 states so that's not saying a lot!?!

 

[Brock Middlebrook]

He will be bigger and more durable this year. Finally growing into the NFL. 260/1300/13, 45/300/3

It stands to reason that he will be bigger and more durable, but have there been any reports confirming this?

 

[switz]

People seem to think 300 touches are his limit, as though if a guy doesn't do something his 1st 2 years in the league he never will.

And evidently people ignore that he had over 300 touches while missing 1 game last season.

 

[JPeso]

People seem to think 300 touches are his limit, as though if a guy doesn't do something his 1st 2 years in the league he never will.

And evidently people ignore that he had over 300 touches while missing 1 game last season.

I don't think people are ignoring that he got it 300 times last year, but more under the impression that he wouldn't have gotten that many touches had there been a viable second option in the backfield. Rhodes>Keith, agreed?

 

[switz]

Addai is a nice RB, but to those calling him a top 5 talent He is just in a top 5 situation right now.

I like this assesment. I think he'll still end up top 5 given the situation, but he's been sliding down my draft board in recent weeks. I had him at 2 once upon a time, now he's at 5, and if the coaches start hinting at a RBBC with Rodes's return....

Name 5 RBs who are better in every category than Addai.It's pretty hard to do... LT and Jackson I would give. I don't think there are any others.

Addai may not be the flashiest runner, but he is a better runner than some of the flashy ones, and he is one of the best receiving backs in the league, he is a very good blocker, he has great vision, and makes little jump cuts where most RBs would put on huge moves to accomplish the same thing. Addai looks so fluid when he runs that it doesn't look like he's doing much at all. He always falls forward, his power is underrrated. He's a great goal line runner.

 

[Brock Middlebrook]

He's a great goal line runner.

What are his numbers there? I'm trying to find some stats...I do see that he has great numbers on 3rd/4th and 0-2

found it

http://hosted.stats.com/fb/leaders.asp?typ...FL&rank=017

http://hosted.stats.com/fb/leaders.asp?yea...FL&rank=016

nice

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

People love to dismiss the fact that the Colts won the SB using a RBBC. I doubt Dungy cares who gets the carries as long as the job get done.

I do expect Rhodes to get the #2 job and get 6-12 carries a game.

Just to clear the air...Addai is a nice RB, but to those calling him a top 5 talent He is just in a top 5 situation right now.

I like this assesment. I think he'll still end up top 5 given the situation, but he's been sliding down my draft board in recent weeks. I had him at 2 once upon a time, now he's at 5, and if the coaches start hinting at a RBBC with Rodes's return....

I'll take decent talent and great situation over great talent and poor situation

 

[switz]

People seem to think 300 touches are his limit, as though if a guy doesn't do something his 1st 2 years in the league he never will.

And evidently people ignore that he had over 300 touches while missing 1 game last season.

I don't think people are ignoring that he got it 300 times last year, but more under the impression that he wouldn't have gotten that many touches had there been a viable second option in the backfield. Rhodes>Keith, agreed?

Keith saw 134 carries last season. I would be shocked if Rhodes sees that many, barring an injury to Addai.Add Dawson's 30 carries, and Lawton's 11 to Keith's 134, plus the 19 catches between the three of them and you have almost as many touches as Rhodes got as the starter in 2006. In 2006 the only other RB to see the ball at all was Ran

Carthon with 3 carries.

There's really no logical reason at all to think Addai's touches will drop off this season from last.

 

[zamboni]

People seem to think 300 touches are his limit, as though if a guy doesn't do something his 1st 2 years in the league he never will.

And evidently people ignore that he had over 300 touches while missing 1 game last season.

I don't think people are ignoring that he got it 300 times last year, but more under the impression that he wouldn't have gotten that many touches had there been a viable second option in the backfield. Rhodes>Keith, agreed?

Disagree - Rhodes had a good Super Bowl and a good end to the season last year with OAK, but has not impressed otherwise since filling in for Edge several years ago.My sense is that Mike Hart will be the guy to have as a handcuff, with one (or both) of Rhodes and Keith being cut by the end of training camp.

 

[BigRed]

His speed, power, etc are all at most "pretty good" - not great. Put him on a notably lesser team and his numbers would shrink dramatically IMO.

not for nothing, but if you put LT, ADP, Westy in a worse situation they all have dramatically shrunken numbers.

Yeah because Rivers, T Jackson, and McNabb are such brilliant QBs. OK..... (PS McNabb is very good though - er when healthy)It would vary depending on what team we're talking about actually, but very generally, they wouldn't shrink nearly as much as Addai. Or are you seriously saying guys like LT and Peterson aren't considerably more talented than Addai? (Westbrook is a more realistic comparison) You and a few others conveniently ignore Addai is on a team that isn't just good, but annually has one of the best and most complete offenses around by FAR with an incredible passing game......even Rhodes did well as the go-to guy when EJ went down. So you're saying he's a great talent too? Whoever carries the rock usually does very well with Manning slinging it around. Hell even Kenton Keith averaged 4.4 last year. So I guess he's a big-time talent too. Right?Anyone who doesn't think the team he's on doesn't make a HUGE diff is delusional.PS again I'm not saying he isn't talented by any means. But to not take that into account is ridiculous.

You think ADP would have had his huge games if it weren't for Hutchinson opening holes the size of Rhode Island?

Depends what other team and OL you're comparing it to. In some cases, absolutely.

You think Westy still gets 700-800 yards receiving if not for a QB that locks into him 15 times a game?

You're saying McNabb is the only one who would "lock" on him a lot? ?? (Again the diff's would vary depending on where he went)

you are drafting him for what he can do for your fantasy team.

Well duh. I just don't see him doing much more than he has already been doing - which is still good, of course.

 

[Getinthemix]

People seem to think 300 touches are his limit, as though if a guy doesn't do something his 1st 2 years in the league he never will.

And evidently people ignore that he had over 300 touches while missing 1 game last season.

I don't think people are ignoring that he got it 300 times last year, but more under the impression that he wouldn't have gotten that many touches had there been a viable second option in the backfield. Rhodes>Keith, agreed?

Keith saw 134 carries last season. I would be shocked if Rhodes sees that many, barring an injury to Addai.Add Dawson's 30 carries, and Lawton's 11 to Keith's 134, plus the 19 catches between the three of them and you have almost as many touches as Rhodes got as the starter in 2006. In 2006 the only other RB to see the ball at all was Ran

Carthon with 3 carries.

There's really no logical reason at all to think Addai's touches will drop off this season from last.

Plus the 640 passes it took for Keith to catch those 19.

 

[switz]

You and a few others conveniently ignore Addai is on a team that isn't just good, but annually has one of the best and most complete offenses around by FAR with an incredible passing game......

And you, and others who like to dog Addai, conveniently ignore that last year the OL was in shambles, and that the offense in general was struggling, despite what EOY numbers would suggest. As well as the fact that Addai played nearly the entire season with an injury.

even Rhodes did well as the go-to guy when EJ went down. So you're saying he's a great talent too?

You do realize that Rhodes BEST season in Indy was in 2001, where he had 233 carries for 1104 yards, and 34 catches for 224 yards, and scored 9 TDs - right? Total 1328/9.Addai's total as a rookie splitting time: 1406/8Addai's total in his second season battling an injury: 1436/15

 

[Jedimaster21]

People love to dismiss the fact that the Colts won the SB using a RBBC. I doubt Dungy cares who gets the carries as long as the job get done. I do expect Rhodes to get the #2 job and get 6-12 carries a game.Just to clear the air...Addai is a nice RB, but to those calling him a top 5 talent He is just in a top 5 situation right now.

There is no way he is a top 5 talent at RB. Not even close. He is good at everything, elite at nothing. He isn't able to carry a significantly larger load than he has up to this point, which is exactly whey the Colts resigned Rhodes to help keep Addai fresh. I can remember Switz predicting close to 350 carries for Addai in the past, but I think he has made his expectations a little more reasonable. I think it is clear that Addai is about a 300 touch player (receptions and carries), and that kind of work load just won't justify his draft position. Especially when you factor in that he isn't a special talent and won't be breaking tons of big plays. If his TDs drop even slightly (which is possible) he will perform well under expectations, and his upside is extremely limited.

 

[kerpow]

I spotted an interestiing article on a Colts blog that suggested that Mike Hart might be used as a goal line RB and projected more TD's than Addai:

No way Addai gets 16 touchdowns. After the injury problems he had last year, there is no way he will be used in goal line situations as much. That is what Mike Hart is for. Hart will be used as a fullback-like back, similar to how James Mungro was used. Hart will be used in the goal line and short yardage situations.

I don’t see Kenton Keith makng the roster, so take him off. With his history with the law and his dropped pass in the endzone against San Diego have cost him a spot on the team.

Dominic Rhodes will get more than 75 carries. He will be a major part of the team, like Addai was in 2006. I see Rhodes having around 125 carries this season.

With all that said, here are my projections for what the Colts do in the running game:

Joseph Addai: 272 carries, 1243 yards, 7 touchdowns

Dominic Rhodes: 125 carries, 487 yards, 3 touchdowns

Mike Hart: 72 carries, 273 yards, 9 touchdowns

Peyton Manning: 9 carries, 10 yards, 2 touchdowns

Addai will make the Pro Bowl again, Rhodes will be a good change of pace back, and Hart will be a fantasy sleeper with all of the touchdowns.

http://naptownsfinest.com/2008/07/05/run-l...ng-projections/



Thoughts?

 

[zamboni]

I spotted an interestiing article on a Colts blog that suggested that Mike Hard might be used as a goal line RB and projected more TD's than Addai:

No way Addai gets 16 touchdowns. After the injury problems he had last year, there is no way he will be used in goal line situations as much. That is what Mike Hart is for. Hart will be used as a fullback-like back, similar to how James Mungro was used. Hart will be used in the goal line and short yardage situations.

I don’t see Kenton Keith makng the roster, so take him off. With his history with the law and his dropped pass in the endzone against San Diego have cost him a spot on the team.

Dominic Rhodes will get more than 75 carries. He will be a major part of the team, like Addai was in 2006. I see Rhodes having around 125 carries this season.

With all that said, here are my projections for what the Colts do in the running game:

Joseph Addai: 272 carries, 1243 yards, 7 touchdowns

Dominic Rhodes: 125 carries, 487 yards, 3 touchdowns

Mike Hart: 72 carries, 273 yards, 9 touchdowns

Peyton Manning: 9 carries, 10 yards, 2 touchdowns

Addai will make the Pro Bowl again, Rhodes will be a good change of pace back, and Hart will be a fantasy sleeper with all of the touchdowns.

http://naptownsfinest.com/2008/07/05/run-l...ng-projections/



Thoughts?

One guy's opinion on a remote blog isn't exactly much to go on.

 

[kerpow]

I spotted an interestiing article on a Colts blog that suggested that Mike Hart might be used as a goal line RB and projected more TD's than Addai:

No way Addai gets 16 touchdowns. After the injury problems he had last year, there is no way he will be used in goal line situations as much. That is what Mike Hart is for. Hart will be used as a fullback-like back, similar to how James Mungro was used. Hart will be used in the goal line and short yardage situations.

I don’t see Kenton Keith makng the roster, so take him off. With his history with the law and his dropped pass in the endzone against San Diego have cost him a spot on the team.

Dominic Rhodes will get more than 75 carries. He will be a major part of the team, like Addai was in 2006. I see Rhodes having around 125 carries this season.

With all that said, here are my projections for what the Colts do in the running game:

Joseph Addai: 272 carries, 1243 yards, 7 touchdowns

Dominic Rhodes: 125 carries, 487 yards, 3 touchdowns

Mike Hart: 72 carries, 273 yards, 9 touchdowns

Peyton Manning: 9 carries, 10 yards, 2 touchdowns

Addai will make the Pro Bowl again, Rhodes will be a good change of pace back, and Hart will be a fantasy sleeper with all of the touchdowns.

http://naptownsfinest.com/2008/07/05/run-l...ng-projections/



Thoughts?

One guy's opinion on a remote blog isn't exactly much to go on.

Of course not, I'm more confused as to why he would think that. I know Hart wasn't a speedster but he still managed to put up decent yards at Michigan, he holds the all-time record (according to wikipedia)

 

[switz]

People love to dismiss the fact that the Colts won the SB using a RBBC. I doubt Dungy cares who gets the carries as long as the job get done.

I do expect Rhodes to get the #2 job and get 6-12 carries a game.

Just to clear the air...Addai is a nice RB, but to those calling him a top 5 talent He is just in a top 5 situation right now.

There is no way he is a top 5 talent at RB. Not even close. He is good at everything, elite at nothing. He isn't able to carry a significantly larger load than he has up to this point, which is exactly whey the Colts resigned Rhodes to help keep Addai fresh. I can remember Switz predicting close to 350 carries for Addai in the past, but I think he has made his expectations a little more reasonable. I think it is clear that Addai is about a 300 touch player (receptions and carries), and that kind of work load just won't justify his draft position. Especially when you factor in that he isn't a special talent and won't be breaking tons of big plays. If his TDs drop even slightly (which is possible) he will perform well under expectations, and his upside is extremely limited.

Good memory: it got mention on the blog. I projected 344 carries.Interestingly, through the first 9 weeks he played, he was on pace for 341 carries on the season (at 4.4YPC), and then the Colts decided to rest him.

Coincidentally, that timing also coincided with the Colts having 5 OL injured, three of which were starters, and one was the backup of one of the starters injured.

It was also after that point in which Addai's YPC declined.

Still Addai saw 20+ carries in 8 of the 15 games he played last season, 5 of those 8 came AFTER his injury. So anyone saying the Colts were resting him due to injury, or his wearing down - those simply aren't supported by any evidence. The deterioration of the OL, as well as other injuries on offense, had more to do with the way Addai was used, than Addai's injury, or Addai "wearing down".

In all likelihood, he should have over 300 carries this season.

 

[boilerdave]

Mike Hart: 72 carries, 273 yards, 9 touchdowns

Thoughts?

No way, not even close to 9 TD's for Hart. Maybe 1 or 2.

 

[BigRed]

There is no way he is a top 5 talent at RB. Not even close. He is good at everything, elite at nothing.

Stop dogging the man, the OL was in shambles, blah blah lol @ 350 carries for Addai.

 

[switz]

I spotted an interestiing article on a Colts blog that suggested that Mike Hart might be used as a goal line RB and projected more TD's than Addai:

No way Addai gets 16 touchdowns. After the injury problems he had last year, there is no way he will be used in goal line situations as much. That is what Mike Hart is for. Hart will be used as a fullback-like back, similar to how James Mungro was used. Hart will be used in the goal line and short yardage situations.

I don’t see Kenton Keith makng the roster, so take him off. With his history with the law and his dropped pass in the endzone against San Diego have cost him a spot on the team.

Dominic Rhodes will get more than 75 carries. He will be a major part of the team, like Addai was in 2006. I see Rhodes having around 125 carries this season.

With all that said, here are my projections for what the Colts do in the running game:

Joseph Addai: 272 carries, 1243 yards, 7 touchdowns

Dominic Rhodes: 125 carries, 487 yards, 3 touchdowns

Mike Hart: 72 carries, 273 yards, 9 touchdowns

Peyton Manning: 9 carries, 10 yards, 2 touchdowns

Addai will make the Pro Bowl again, Rhodes will be a good change of pace back, and Hart will be a fantasy sleeper with all of the touchdowns.

http://naptownsfinest.com/2008/07/05/run-l...ng-projections/



Thoughts?

Addai was one of the best GL runners in the league last year, he's not going to lose that job.

 

[switz]

There is no way he is a top 5 talent at RB. Not even close. He is good at everything, elite at nothing.

Stop dogging the man, the OL was in shambles, blah blah lol @ 350 carries for Addai.

Name the RBs that had more 20+ carry games than Addai last season....

 

[LILB811]

In the first 16 weeks Addai has to face the following rush defenses:

Chicago (4th in rushing DVOA)

Minnesota (1st in yards allowed, 2nd in rushing DVOA)

Jacksonville twice (11th in yards allowed despite injuries)

Tennessee (5th in yards allowed)

Baltimore (2nd in yards allowed, 1st in rushing DVOA)

Pittsburgh (3rd in yards allowed, 3rd in rushing DVOA)

Green Bay (6th in rushing DVOA)

They also play San Diego and New England, who combined Addai has managed a 3.2 YPC against in his career.

This isn't as much a knock on Addai as it is the fact that he has a tough schedule on his plate, plus he (and now Manning) are coming back from injuries.

I think he gets about 300 touches, 1400 total yards and 10-12 TD's. I think he's a safe pick who should be top 10, but I really don't think he has a shot at creeping into the top 3. Personally I'd rather take a chance on a guy like Gore or Portis.

 

[Buckna]

Meh, I'll ignore the talent discussion, there's been plenty of heated argument over it in previous threads.

All that really matters to me is that he plays for Indy. In the last 9 years, Indy's offense has ranked outside the top 5 only ONCE. In that time span, they have ranked in the top 3 a stunning 5 times. I don't see this changing for Indy anytime soon either, so as long as Addai is healthy, he will continue to turn in top 10 finishes.

One thing I don't like is that I never see him as the kind of RB that will just have an absolutely monster season, so his upside is slightly limited. Indy just has too many weapons with Peyton, Wayne, Clark and now Gonzalez to ever abandon a balanced attack. He will always be a top 10, very dependable choice though.

285 carries, 1140 yards, 10 TD's

45 receptions, 385 yards, 2 TD's

224.5 fpts, good for #RB 6 last year

 

[travdogg]

There is no way he is a top 5 talent at RB. Not even close. He is good at everything, elite at nothing.

Stop dogging the man, the OL was in shambles, blah blah lol @ 350 carries for Addai.

Name the RBs that had more 20+ carry games than Addai last season....

I'm an Addai supporter, but to answer that question...Edge,Lynch, Lewis, T.Jones, Parker(though it clearly wore him down,) LT, Portis. That's 7 guys and Addai is ranked ahead of all of them except LT pretty universally.

 

[switz]

There is no way he is a top 5 talent at RB. Not even close. He is good at everything, elite at nothing.

Stop dogging the man, the OL was in shambles, blah blah

lol @ 350 carries for Addai.

Name the RBs that had more 20+ carry games than Addai last season....

I'm an Addai supporter, but to answer that question...Edge,Lynch, Lewis, T.Jones, Parker(though it clearly wore him down,) LT, Portis. That's 7 guys and Addai is ranked ahead of all of them except LT pretty universally.

Actually, only 5 did, not 7... LT and Jones each had 8 20+ carry games, same as Addai.FWP - 12

Edge - 10

Portis - 9

Lewis - 9

Lynch - 9

LT - 8

Addai - 8

TJones - 8

How many of those RBs are getting knocked because someone is going to "steal" their carries? Only FWP - because they drafted Mendenhall. Addai has no threat at all to his carries (Rhodes is washed up, Hart is a backup player).

Only LT scored more rushing TDs.

Only three players scored more total TDs (Moss, LT, Edwards)

Addai will shoulder the load for the Colts.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Addai's value will take a huge hit if Manning misses time. Guess we will see if it is Addais talent or situation that makes him a top 5 RB. My guess is he falls outside the top 10 if Manning misses any significant amout of time. Actually, i think he was going to be borderline top 10 anyhow.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Addai's value will take a huge hit if Manning misses time.

The entire offense takes a huge hit if Manning misses time.And nobody takes a bigger hit in those games then... Manning.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Addai's value will take a huge hit if Manning misses time.

The entire offense takes a huge hit if Manning misses time.And nobody takes a bigger hit in those games then... Manning.

That is true, but this is a Joseph Addai thread, so i limited my discussion to him.