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Player Spotlight: Julius Jones (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Julius Jones, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Player Page Link: Julius Jones Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
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Julius Jones is a tough player to get excited about this season.

He does have several good things going for him that will make him valuable on draft day:

-No competition for the top RB spot

-A new Head Coach in Jim Mora Jr who likes to run the ball with a balanced attack

-A cupcake schedule

-A fully healthy Seahawks offense including Matt Hasselbeck

Projections:

224 att 962 yards (4.29 avg) 8 TD, 28 rec, 188 receiving yards, 1 TD

 
Julius Jones is an RB that when you consider the possibilities could be a bargain in 09. His current ADP is RB37 and 97 overall. That's extremely low for a likely starter. He started out like gangbusters a year ago and then fizzled. After the third game, he already had 61 carries for 312 yards 5.1 ypc and 2 TDs. However, the remainder of the year, he logged only 97 carries for 386 yards 4.0 ypc and no TDs. His only competition seems to be TJ Duckett and he was with the Seahawks a year ago and only logged 62 carries all year. His forte was at the goal line though as he scored 8 TDs.

Jones has just not seemed to be able to sustain success for long periods of time during his career and most don't expect that to happen in 09, but it is possible. His nice three game stretch came before Hasselbeck was injured and Matt is returning. He definitely will be drafted at a point where he would be at best a fantasy team's 3rd and likely 4th RB, so he could be worth a shot.

Julius Jones 230 carries 920 yards 4.0 ypc 30 targets 24 catches 144 yards 6.0 ypc and 5 TDs

 
According to CBS.Sportsline (my fantasy league site), JJ had 158/698/2 with 14/66/0. Maurice Morris has 132/574/0 with 19/136/2.

If JJ adds 75% of what MM got last year, on top of repeating what he did last year, that would give him: 257/1129/2 with 28/168/1

 
I think he's quite undervalued & will be a RB2 this year. I see him contributing a bit more in the passing game as well.

250 1050 6 TD 35 210 2 TD

Absolutely no one will touch this guy as more as their Rb3/4, so you could end up with a nice situational type starter (I like Seattle's schedule quite a bit as well)

 
I think he's quite undervalued & will be a RB2 this year. I see him contributing a bit more in the passing game as well.250 1050 6 TD 35 210 2 TDAbsolutely no one will touch this guy as more as their Rb3/4, so you could end up with a nice situational type starter (I like Seattle's schedule quite a bit as well)
:goodposting: he's going to be a steal as someone who can be had late in the draft...270/1188/8, 4.4 per carry...in G. Knapp we trust!
 
I think he's quite undervalued & will be a RB2 this year. I see him contributing a bit more in the passing game as well.250 1050 6 TD 35 210 2 TDAbsolutely no one will touch this guy as more as their Rb3/4, so you could end up with a nice situational type starter (I like Seattle's schedule quite a bit as well)
:goodposting: he's going to be a steal as someone who can be had late in the draft...270/1188/8, 4.4 per carry...in G. Knapp we trust!
I hope you are right. I think Julius is going a bit under the radar. He is clearly the Seahawks starting tailback; he has at best a proven back up in Duckett who won't challenge for the starter touches; no young stud waiting in the wings. He will however lose goaline touches to Duckett, but I don't see why he won't be good enough to fill a RB 2 void and he can be drafted as a RB 3/4.
 
I think he's quite undervalued & will be a RB2 this year. I see him contributing a bit more in the passing game as well.250 1050 6 TD 35 210 2 TDAbsolutely no one will touch this guy as more as their Rb3/4, so you could end up with a nice situational type starter (I like Seattle's schedule quite a bit as well)
:confused: he's going to be a steal as someone who can be had late in the draft...270/1188/8, 4.4 per carry...in G. Knapp we trust!
same thing i thought last year.Duckett in TD heavy leagues is the guy to have. JJones just isnt that good.
 
Any Seahawks faithful out to see some of their camp? If so how has Jones looked?
I saw him for a few plays yesterday. More of the same for JJ this season imo. ~3.5 ypc, a few good-great games and a lot of mediocre ones. To these eyes, Forsett is the most impressive back in camp. Whether or not he gets a real shot is still up in the air.
 
Any Seahawks faithful out to see some of their camp? If so how has Jones looked?
I saw him for a few plays yesterday. More of the same for JJ this season imo. ~3.5 ypc, a few good-great games and a lot of mediocre ones. To these eyes, Forsett is the most impressive back in camp. Whether or not he gets a real shot is still up in the air.
Thanks,Do you see his ypc dropping down from 4.4 last season to 3.5 this season with Hass and a much better crew of WR's as well?Also, Julius is a descent blocker and has descent hands. With the loss of Morris who was used often as the 3rd down back the last few seasons, Julius should be out on the field more which would give him an opportunity for more touches.Duckett is clearly going to be the short yardage guy and the touch down vulture. But Jones should have the opportunity to be a viable RB 2 in fantasy this season. And at the very least a very good spot starter against bad run defenses.-14.5 rush attempts a game over a 16 game schedule would be 232 rush attempts and at 4.4 ypc (which he did last season would put Jones at 1020 yards rushing on the season, and tack on 5 rushing TD's-2 caches a game over the 16 game schedule would be 32 receptions, at 7 ypc would be 224 yards and 1 recieving TD-1020 rushing yards-224 recieving yards-1244 total yards-6 total TD'sThose that are claiming Jones is going to be part of a RBBC, who is he going to lose those touches to?(RotoWire) Jones likes the new zone blocking scheme implemented by new head coach Jim Mora Jr. and should see a bulk of the carries this season, the Tacoma News Tribune reports.Analysis: Maurice Morris went to Detroit over the offseason, so Jones will be the clear feature back. He likes the fact that their are less decisions to make in a zone scheme, however Mora noted that Jones and the other backs still need to work on developing patience before making an upfield cut.
 
Almost every artical I have read says Jones will be the feature back. I fully expect Duckett to get short yardage and goaline. With that being said....

Rushing= 270/1242/8

Rec= 17/73/2

If Thomas Jones ends up in Seattle all bets are off.

 
Man, I had such high hopes for this kid.

He didn't have much of a college career, but I admired how he chose to get his grades up rather then transfer out of ND. His first few games, he was simply amazing.

I think he's just like so many talented athletes of the modern era. He's filthy paid and doesn't have to work as hard as necessary to be truly good at the NFL level.

 
I've seen every carry JJ has hd when he was in Dallas. There is nothing that makes him a special back, in terms of pure talent. He is not particularly big, nor elusive. He often got caught up in the trash around the point of contact and was frequently brought down on first contact; not an encouraging sign. He never made much happen on his own and was easy to bring down. He did the most damage when the Cowboys lined up in a shotgun formation and had wide lanes to run through. In a conventional two back set, he was strictly mediocre. He always seemed impacted by relatively minor injuries. There was always this feeling that JJ would put it together and have a monster season, but it never came to fruition, as MB III demonstrated that he was clearly the better lead back.

In Seattle, and I admittedly haven't seen many Seahawk games, nothing appears to have changed. He got off to an early start, only to get hurt. He does have the benefit of little competition behind him and looks to get the lion's share of the carries. I forsee somewhere in the area of 220-250 touches this year. Duckett will vulture the TDs, though.

226 carries, 912 yards, 4 tds

23 catches, 134 yards, 1 td

He'll be a decent RB 3 and a very good RB 4, just don't rely on him to be ab RB 2.

 
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With the Seahawks adding Edgerrin James, where do you forsee Jones' value? Is Jones worth cutting for an upstart backup such as Glenn Coffee or James Davis?

 
Coach Jim Mora insisted Wednesday that Julius Jones will remain Seattle's "workhorse" back, despite the addition of Edgerrin James.

Until Julius plays his way out of the job. Mora repeatedly used the word "complementary" to project James' role, but he's much better on passing downs and was very arguably the better runner in 2008, despite losing his job at midseason. We're staying away from all Seahawks players in drafts.

Source: ESPN.com

Not really sure what rotoworld ment by very arguably the better runner in 2008 but still good news IMO

 
Coach Jim Mora insisted Wednesday that Julius Jones will remain Seattle's "workhorse" back, despite the addition of Edgerrin James.

Until Julius plays his way out of the job. Mora repeatedly used the word "complementary" to project James' role, but he's much better on passing downs and was very arguably the better runner in 2008, despite losing his job at midseason. We're staying away from all Seahawks players in drafts.

Source: ESPN.com

Not really sure what rotoworld ment by very arguably the better runner in 2008 but still good news IMO
I was still curious if the mystic Mora said this before dumping TJ or perhaps maybe he was saying it knowing Duckett was gone. IF so it could bring shades of Barber /JJ combo of 2 years ago with now James and JJ sharing a regular schedule in RBBC....
 
Coach Jim Mora insisted Wednesday that Julius Jones will remain Seattle's "workhorse" back, despite the addition of Edgerrin James.

Until Julius plays his way out of the job. Mora repeatedly used the word "complementary" to project James' role, but he's much better on passing downs and was very arguably the better runner in 2008, despite losing his job at midseason. We're staying away from all Seahawks players in drafts.

Source: ESPN.com

Not really sure what rotoworld ment by very arguably the better runner in 2008 but still good news IMO
I was still curious if the mystic Mora said this before dumping TJ or perhaps maybe he was saying it knowing Duckett was gone. IF so it could bring shades of Barber /JJ combo of 2 years ago with now James and JJ sharing a regular schedule in RBBC....
Mora said this today. Duckett was released Tuesday
 
Coach Jim Mora insisted Wednesday that Julius Jones will remain Seattle's "workhorse" back, despite the addition of Edgerrin James.

Until Julius plays his way out of the job. Mora repeatedly used the word "complementary" to project James' role, but he's much better on passing downs and was very arguably the better runner in 2008, despite losing his job at midseason. We're staying away from all Seahawks players in drafts.

Source: ESPN.com

Not really sure what rotoworld ment by very arguably the better runner in 2008 but still good news IMO
Hasn't he already done that several times?
 
This is a tough situation to predict right now. James is old, but NOBODY would have put up good numbers behind the atrocious run-blocking of the Cardinals the last couple of years.

Both Jones and James are nice mid round gambles, but neither should be relied on as a primary weapon, or even an RB3, at this point.

 
This is a tough situation to predict right now. James is old, but NOBODY would have put up good numbers behind the atrocious run-blocking of the Cardinals the last couple of years.

Both Jones and James are nice mid round gambles, but neither should be relied on as a primary weapon, or even an RB3, at this point.
:shrug: It is? Julia Jones is soft and bad, don't draft him. The coaching staff is saying Edge is the backup to the RB who is soft and bad. The coaching staff has previously indicated they want to incorporate all three RB's into the scheme. If Edge is there late, fine. If you're a Forsett buyer and you want to take him in the last round, ok fine. Otherwise, I don't think any of them are draftable. This should be a pass first, second, and third offense using the running game to keep the passing game honest. Especially with the losses up front during camp.
 
At his ADP of RB 37 he's pretty low risk and should be pretty easy to predict each week, but his ceiling seems very low to me, even if they didn't sign james I can't see him getting over 1000 rushing. He should get a solid amount of carries, cause basically hes the only option, other then james who at best could chip in 50% like m. moore and jones did last year. Even if he only gets half the carries say 12 a game and keep his YPC from last year 4.4 (i dont think the seattle offense can get much worse then last years w/ no WRs and hasselbeck hurt) Project it over 16 games thats about 850 rushing and 100-150 receiving. Its not pretty but I think its a pretty safe bet he get 1,000 yards overall this year with a few TDs. Its more of what you wanna do with your late round picks, draft a backup RB who if the starter gets hurt could be a top guy, or jones who worst case can put up 60-70 yards a week and the occassional TD.

 
I believe the real question is "How good will the Seahawk O line be?" With W. Jones probably missing the first week or two and the same for Spencer, I'm concerned on how many holes will be opened up for any of their RBs to run through. I could see the hawks become screen heavy to help out in this but its a risky pick to rely on the hawk offense this year.

 
Who will get Duckett's goal line carriers???? He scored 8 last year and with an expected improve Seattle offense there should be more opportunities.

 

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