Player Spotlight: Kurt Warner (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona Cardinals

Player Page Link: Kurt Warner Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Longrifle]

Let me first say that I am a big Warner fan. But you cannot ignore the facts. Since 1998 he has only palyed 3 complete seasons (most due to injury). So we cannot assume he will be able to manage another complete season this year. I would think he could miss at least a couple of games due to an injury.

Attempts 400

Completions 260

Passing Yards 3080

Passing TDs 20

Ints 11

Rush Yards 17

Rush TDs 0

 

[Jason Wood]

I think the chances of Warner approaching last year's numbers are virtually non-existent. As Longrifle points out, you can't dismiss his inability to play a full season, particularly at his age. I would say the Cardinals offensive line remains one of the team's major question marks. While Whisenhunt and Grimm are proven offensive minds, Todd Haley had some MASTERFUL play-calling last year and I'm not sure we didn't see near pitch perfection execution by the team's passing attack. The other issue to consider is Beanie Wells. I'm firmly in the camp who thinks the Cardinals have a guy who can be their bellcow and they will use him that way. Remember, Whisenhunt and Grimm are cut in the Pittsburgh cloth and I can't fathom that they don't want a more balance approach if they can manage it.

Roll all that up, and you have what should be a dynamic fantasy passing game, but given Warner's Top 5 status, he's probably not a guy I'm going to have on many rosters. I see a lot more downside at current ADP/projections than I do upside.

 

[dmac37]

I have been a Warner owner for the past two years, I always had the feeling I was playing with the houses money. He certainly came through big but each week I was worried this was the week he is going to get knocked out.

Gut feeling that he does not produce at the same level this year mainly because of injury, but a dangerous assumption to make with anyone even Warner.

 

[Blackjacks]

Since we are not suppose to predict injury here I'll say Warner is my #4 Qb this year

Anything under 4,300 yards and 30 td's would be a disappointment

 

[dickey moe]

Since we are not suppose to predict injury

Why not? And at his age, it should definitely be a consideration.

 

[Blackjacks]

Anything under 4,300 yards and 30 td's would be a disappointment

Why? He cant perform worse statistically and still be a very good producer?He had 30 TDs last year. If he is short of that mark he can still be damn good.He had 4500 yards last year and if he hits 4000 that would be a disspointment?He simply isnt being drafted as a top 2 QB currently. But 4300/30 is just that.

450 yards is around 275 a game on average fom Kurt......I would expect that30 td's is less than 2 a game n which every time Kurt steps on the field I would expect. that not bein a problemAs for his age, he is less than a year ago than last year when he played the whole year. Why now would he be since an injury prone player?Kurt is playing for the Hall of Fame in the next 2 years and fantasy owners are going to reap the reward of his greatness.Added bonus: Detroit and St. Louis during the playoffs!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Blackjacks]

Since we are not suppose to predict injury

Why not? And at his age, it should definitely be a consideration.

I can find a reason to predict injury on half the league. These projections are suppose to be assuming they are healthy.

 

[puckalicious]

Since we are not suppose to predict injury here I'll say Warner is my #4 Qb this yearAnything under 4,300 yards and 30 td's would be a disappointment

Be prepared for disappointment this year. To me, that is his ceiling but not what I expect.3500/25/15 is pretty reasonable to me, given the absurd # of passes thrown last year. My projection factors in possibly missing a little bit of time, the loss of Haley, and the addition of a shiny new toy in Wells that I think the team would like to use as much as possible.

 

[David Yudkin]

Part of the confusion over Warner is that his dominance in ARI gets overshadowed by the fact that in his first few seasons he was not a full time starter. Including the post season last year, Warner has now played 45 games with the Cardinals in which he had 20 passing attempts. Given the voracity for which ARI has elected to throw the ball, 20 attempts to me would be at a minimum that of a starting workload.

In those games, Warner has averaged a staggering 286 passing yards, 1.9 TD, and 1 INT. So on a seasonal basis that would be projected out to 4576, 30 TD, and 16 INT. Given that the sample size is essentially almost three years worth of data, I see no arguments that that is a blown out of the baseline projection.

I would suggest that people consider that and then factor out injury risk, migration to more rushing attempts, etc. But my point was that what Warner did last year was on par with what he'd done all along with the Cardinals.

 

[dgreen]

But my point was that what Warner did last year was on par with what he'd done all along with the Cardinals.

I agree. However, I think a very important question for 2009 is: Are these the same Cardinals? Now, I don't see a HUGE shift in philosophy, but does the addition of Beanie Wells and the departure Todd Haley play a role?Over the last two seasons (including playoffs), 29 of Warner's 68 TDs are 5 yards or less. Four of the team's other 5 passing TDs during those two seasons were also 5 yards or less. So, that's 33 passing TDs for 5 yards or less. Over the same period, they had 21 rushing TDs from 5 yards or less.In comparison, over the past two seasons, Brees had 21 of his 62 TDs from 5 yards or less and Manning was 17/62.

 

[David Yudkin]

But my point was that what Warner did last year was on par with what he'd done all along with the Cardinals.

I agree. However, I think a very important question for 2009 is: Are these the same Cardinals? Now, I don't see a HUGE shift in philosophy, but does the addition of Beanie Wells and the departure Todd Haley play a role?Over the last two seasons (including playoffs), 29 of Warner's 68 TDs are 5 yards or less. Four of the team's other 5 passing TDs during those two seasons were also 5 yards or less. So, that's 33 passing TDs for 5 yards or less. Over the same period, they had 21 rushing TDs from 5 yards or less.In comparison, over the past two seasons, Brees had 21 of his 62 TDs from 5 yards or less and Manning was 17/62.

I've outlined in several other threads just how inept the Cardinals running attack has been, so it will be intereting to see if the only real change on the field (Wells) and a new OC is enough to impact the results. I'm guessing that it may nudge things a little, but the Cards should again be one of the premier passing teams this year. If they are great at scoring through the air inside the 5, I would think that they would continue to do so until someone figures out how to stop them.

 

[Jason Wood]

This is a guy a lot of people are going to be drafting as their starter, we need some more projections y'all.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

But my point was that what Warner did last year was on par with what he'd done all along with the Cardinals.

I agree. However, I think a very important question for 2009 is: Are these the same Cardinals? Now, I don't see a HUGE shift in philosophy, but does the addition of Beanie Wells and the departure Todd Haley play a role?Over the last two seasons (including playoffs), 29 of Warner's 68 TDs are 5 yards or less. Four of the team's other 5 passing TDs during those two seasons were also 5 yards or less. So, that's 33 passing TDs for 5 yards or less. Over the same period, they had 21 rushing TDs from 5 yards or less.In comparison, over the past two seasons, Brees had 21 of his 62 TDs from 5 yards or less and Manning was 17/62.

I've outlined in several other threads just how inept the Cardinals running attack has been, so it will be intereting to see if the only real change on the field (Wells) and a new OC is enough to impact the results. I'm guessing that it may nudge things a little, but the Cards should again be one of the premier passing teams this year. If they are great at scoring through the air inside the 5, I would think that they would continue to do so until someone figures out how to stop them.

I mostly agree with David here.Regarding the TDs inside 5 yards, I'm not sure that is a great barometer to use against Warner's passing TDs. It's not easy to score on a running play from 3-5 yards out... I just don't see Arizona pounding the rock 3 times inside the 5. If a large percentage of those inside the 5 passing TDs were actually inside the 2 and on 1st or 2nd down, that may be something to talk about. Those are the plays that are more likely to become rushing TDs. 3rd and goal? That's going to be a pass 90% of the time with Warner and those WRs.ETA:260 yards a game, down from last year. (Outside of the New England debacle in week 16, Warner averaged 303 yards per game)4160 yards, 28 TDs, 14 INTs

 

[Pickle Rody]

This is a guy a lot of people are going to be drafting as their starter, we need some more projections y'all.

Should probably post this in the McNabb thread also.........Back in a bit with my projections....

 

[joffer]

350/545/4250

28 TDs

19 INTs

 

[Pickle Rody]

Okay, let's face it, Warner has averaged playing 10 games a season for his career and has had only 3 seasons with a full 16 game slate. These statistics do not encourage warm and fuzzy feelings about Warner's ability to remain healthy all year. None of that matters to me though. What matters to me is the last two years at the helm of the Arizona offense. I see no reason to think that things will change. Fitzgerald? Boldin? Seriously. Chris Wells? He will probably open up the passing game some, not hinder it. I know most of you think it's a big if (it's actually only 50/50,) but if Warner stays healthy and he's your QB, you're looking at a monster year from him.

Warner 2009 Predictions:

16 games

381 completions, 583 attempts, 65.35 comp%

4,269 passing yards

11.2 yards per completion

30 TD's

14 Int's

11 rushes

30 yards

2.72 yards per rush

3 TD's

4,299 total yards

33 total TD's

Rody

 

[Menace]

I see Warner only playing 3-4 games this season and retiring. I think Lienart steps in and does surprisingly well (maybe this years Cassel). Hate saying it but this is what I feel.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Yes Warner is getting old, but I do think people are overblowing his injury potential. Another thread this offseason convinced me that the "Warner is a sure thing not to last the season" line of thinking is offbase. While in many recent seasons he has failed to play a full year, many of those seasons were due to his team's decision to move on from Warner and go with the younger player (Bulger, Manning and Leinart).

Warner showed toughness during his time in Arizona and the game calling and his quick release helped him avoid taking a beating behind an average (at best) offenisve line. I don't think he's any more likely to miss time than any other QB. He is still one of the league's better QBs and is supported by arguably (and I'm not really sure that it is arguable) the best WR combo in the league.

4,115 passing yards, 26 passing TDs, 15 Ints.

15 yards rushing

 

[Dr. Octopus]

11 rushes

30 yards

2.72 yards per rush

3 TD's

 

[Pickle Rody]

11 rushes

30 yards

2.72 yards per rush

3 TD's

Just a tiny limb there.....

 

[David Yudkin]

For those suggesting Warner will get hurt and miss time, hasn't he been healthy the past three years? I seem to remember him having a groin injury his first year in Arizona (2005), but since then injuries have not been a problem. I'm not saying he is impervious to injury, but I seem to remember him being a lot healthier of late.

 

[MAC_32]

For those suggesting Warner will get hurt and miss time, hasn't he been healthy the past three years? I seem to remember him having a groin injury his first year in Arizona (2005), but since then injuries have not been a problem. I'm not saying he is impervious to injury, but I seem to remember him being a lot healthier of late.

Given his age past precedent regarding injuries doesn't really say much imho. Old guys take longer to recover from the same injuries that most younger guys suffer, that's not an opinion it's just the way it is.

 

[baconisgood]

Part of the confusion over Warner is that his dominance in ARI gets overshadowed by the fact that in his first few seasons he was not a full time starter. Including the post season last year, Warner has now played 45 games with the Cardinals in which he had 20 passing attempts. Given the voracity for which ARI has elected to throw the ball, 20 attempts to me would be at a minimum that of a starting workload.In those games, Warner has averaged a staggering 286 passing yards, 1.9 TD, and 1 INT. So on a seasonal basis that would be projected out to 4576, 30 TD, and 16 INT. Given that the sample size is essentially almost three years worth of data, I see no arguments that that is a blown out of the baseline projection.I would suggest that people consider that and then factor out injury risk, migration to more rushing attempts, etc. But my point was that what Warner did last year was on par with what he'd done all along with the Cardinals.

A bigger question to me is not the running game but the defense. ARI has finished 28th, 27th, 29th, and 26th in pts allowed the past 4 years. their defense appeared to play better in the playoffs (thanks to Delhomme) but htey gave up 450 yards of offense to the Eagles and gave up 24, 25 and 27 pts in games that Jake wasn't throwing 6 picks for them. If I expect a coach from Pittsburgh to be a ball control coach I also expect him to be a defensive minded coach and ARI used 4 of their first 6 picks on d (iirc). If they improve on defense there it is less likely that Warner will average 290 yards a game. If they don't it will be more of the same air attack.

 

[Tau837]

I think Warner's injury history is a bit overblown.

1999 - no injuries, great season (MVP)

2000 - broke his hand and missed 6 games, still had a great season

2001 - no injuries, great season (MVP)

2002 - broke finger and missed several games, played poorly when he played

2003 - got a concussion and fumbled 6 times in the opener and was benched

2004 - no injuries, played pretty well, but Giants chose to switch to Eli, their new franchise QB, after 9 games

2005 - injured groin and missed a few games, later partly tore MCL, but played pretty well when he played

2006 - no injuries, played pretty well but was benched for Leinart until Leinart was hurt

2007 - no injuries, played very well in relief of Leinart and after eventually becoming the starter

2008 - no injuries, great season

In St. Louis, he was dominant before and after the first injury (hand). But for whatever reason, he played poorly in 2002, both before and after his second injury (finger), and then followed that up by getting the concussion and fumbling 6 times in the first game of 2003 and gave way to Bulger. Bulger took that opportunity and ran with it, going 12-3 as the starter, though his QB rating was a fairly pedestrian 81.4. At that point, Warner had had 3 different injuries in the previous 4 seasons, so injuries were a definite concern, he was 33, and the team had a younger QB coming off a 12 win season that I'm sure Martz thought he could make into Kurt Warner. So Warner was released.

Warner was in NY for just one season, and he played well... much better than Eli. But Eli was the heralded franchise savior QB with a monster contract, and the team decided to switch to Eli after losing 3 of 4 games, even though Warner only played poorly in one of them.

Then Warner went to Arizona and had his last two injuries in his first season there. He played pretty well when he played, but I think it convinced Arizona they couldn't count on him at age 34 and after he missed several games in his first season there, so they drafted Leinart. Then they felt compelled to play Leinart in his first and second seasons, based on his status as an incoming franchise QB with a reasonably large contract, but overall Warner completely outplayed him and is now rightfully the starter.

So we have 10 seasons, and Warner was injured a total of 5 times in 4 of them. A broken hand, broken finger, concussion, torn groin, and partly torn MCL. Is there any reason to think any of those injuries will reoccur? Or that because of those injuries, he is more susceptible to some other injury? I could see it with the concussion, except for the fact that I'm not aware he has had another one since 2003. So I just don't see the propensity for injury that others are talking about, especially given that his last injury was in 2005.

IMO people confuse the number of games he played, thinking he has missed a lot more time due to injury than he really has. IMO he was benched in 2003 for poor performance. So that means he missed 0 games due to injury in 7 of his 10 seasons (1999, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008), and he missed a total of 20 games due to injury over that span... 2 games per year on average... and 20 of a possible 130 games (adding the 20 to his 110 games played over that span), which scales to about 2.5 games for every 16 games. I'd be pretty happy to have Warner's average performance with the Cardinals for 13.5 games this year...

 

[David Yudkin]

For those suggesting Warner will get hurt and miss time, hasn't he been healthy the past three years? I seem to remember him having a groin injury his first year in Arizona (2005), but since then injuries have not been a problem. I'm not saying he is impervious to injury, but I seem to remember him being a lot healthier of late.

Given his age past precedent regarding injuries doesn't really say much imho. Old guys take longer to recover from the same injuries that most younger guys suffer, that's not an opinion it's just the way it is.

The following players were 38 or older and played in all 16 games in a season as a regular starter . . .Brett Favre x 2Vinny Testaverde x 2Brad JohnsonDoug Flutie Warren Moon Phil Simms Fran TarkentonThe following guys were 38 or older and played in all 14 games in a season and played pretty regularly or started (back when they played 14 games) . . .George Blanda x 2John Brodie Len DawsonSonny JurgensenEarl MorrallY.A. Tittle I'm not saying that Warner is a lock to play 16 games, only that older QBs have managed to play full seasons in advanced football years. I would guess Warner may have a higher risk factor than other QBs, but I don't think it's a given that he will miss significant time.

 

[David Yudkin]

Part of the confusion over Warner is that his dominance in ARI gets overshadowed by the fact that in his first few seasons he was not a full time starter. Including the post season last year, Warner has now played 45 games with the Cardinals in which he had 20 passing attempts. Given the voracity for which ARI has elected to throw the ball, 20 attempts to me would be at a minimum that of a starting workload.In those games, Warner has averaged a staggering 286 passing yards, 1.9 TD, and 1 INT. So on a seasonal basis that would be projected out to 4576, 30 TD, and 16 INT. Given that the sample size is essentially almost three years worth of data, I see no arguments that that is a blown out of the baseline projection.I would suggest that people consider that and then factor out injury risk, migration to more rushing attempts, etc. But my point was that what Warner did last year was on par with what he'd done all along with the Cardinals.

A bigger question to me is not the running game but the defense. ARI has finished 28th, 27th, 29th, and 26th in pts allowed the past 4 years. their defense appeared to play better in the playoffs (thanks to Delhomme) but htey gave up 450 yards of offense to the Eagles and gave up 24, 25 and 27 pts in games that Jake wasn't throwing 6 picks for them. If I expect a coach from Pittsburgh to be a ball control coach I also expect him to be a defensive minded coach and ARI used 4 of their first 6 picks on d (iirc). If they improve on defense there it is less likely that Warner will average 290 yards a game. If they don't it will be more of the same air attack.

I've made the same point several times in the Cardinals RB threads.

 

[baconisgood]

Part of the confusion over Warner is that his dominance in ARI gets overshadowed by the fact that in his first few seasons he was not a full time starter. Including the post season last year, Warner has now played 45 games with the Cardinals in which he had 20 passing attempts. Given the voracity for which ARI has elected to throw the ball, 20 attempts to me would be at a minimum that of a starting workload.In those games, Warner has averaged a staggering 286 passing yards, 1.9 TD, and 1 INT. So on a seasonal basis that would be projected out to 4576, 30 TD, and 16 INT. Given that the sample size is essentially almost three years worth of data, I see no arguments that that is a blown out of the baseline projection.I would suggest that people consider that and then factor out injury risk, migration to more rushing attempts, etc. But my point was that what Warner did last year was on par with what he'd done all along with the Cardinals.

A bigger question to me is not the running game but the defense. ARI has finished 28th, 27th, 29th, and 26th in pts allowed the past 4 years. their defense appeared to play better in the playoffs (thanks to Delhomme) but htey gave up 450 yards of offense to the Eagles and gave up 24, 25 and 27 pts in games that Jake wasn't throwing 6 picks for them. If I expect a coach from Pittsburgh to be a ball control coach I also expect him to be a defensive minded coach and ARI used 4 of their first 6 picks on d (iirc). If they improve on defense there it is less likely that Warner will average 290 yards a game. If they don't it will be more of the same air attack.

I've made the same point several times in the Cardinals RB threads.

Maybe thats where it stuck in my head from.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

11 rushes

30 yards

2.72 yards per rush

3 TD's

Just a tiny limb there.....

 

[5-ish Finkle]

For those suggesting Warner will get hurt and miss time, hasn't he been healthy the past three years? I seem to remember him having a groin injury his first year in Arizona (2005), but since then injuries have not been a problem. I'm not saying he is impervious to injury, but I seem to remember him being a lot healthier of late.

Given his age past precedent regarding injuries doesn't really say much imho. Old guys take longer to recover from the same injuries that most younger guys suffer, that's not an opinion it's just the way it is.

The following players were 38 or older and played in all 16 games in a season as a regular starter . . .Brett Favre x 2Vinny Testaverde x 2Brad JohnsonDoug Flutie Warren Moon Phil Simms Fran TarkentonThe following guys were 38 or older and played in all 14 games in a season and played pretty regularly or started (back when they played 14 games) . . .George Blanda x 2John Brodie Len DawsonSonny JurgensenEarl MorrallY.A. Tittle I'm not saying that Warner is a lock to play 16 games, only that older QBs have managed to play full seasons in advanced football years. I would guess Warner may have a higher risk factor than other QBs, but I don't think it's a given that he will miss significant time.

How many of those guys were coming off hip surgery(or any other kind of major procedure)? That'd be comparing apples to apples, IMO.I targeted Warner on almost every one of my fantasy teams a year ago since his price tag was so cheap, age be damned, as anyone who had two brain cells to rub together could see he was light years better than Matty Kegstand. Folks who were lucky enough to land him were rewarded greatly, since he vastly outplayed his ADP. This year, with the starting gig locked down, he's projecting as the, what, 4th or 5th QB off the board as a 38 y.o. with hip issues? I don't think I could be totally comfortable with that if he were 28, let alone 38.If his hip stuff would drive his price down some, I would be happy to go after him again and take the risk since the rewards are potentially large, but it doesn't seem like it has. I can't get behind him at his current sticker price.

 

[MAC_32]

For those suggesting Warner will get hurt and miss time, hasn't he been healthy the past three years? I seem to remember him having a groin injury his first year in Arizona (2005), but since then injuries have not been a problem. I'm not saying he is impervious to injury, but I seem to remember him being a lot healthier of late.

Given his age past precedent regarding injuries doesn't really say much imho. Old guys take longer to recover from the same injuries that most younger guys suffer, that's not an opinion it's just the way it is.

The following players were 38 or older and played in all 16 games in a season as a regular starter . . .Brett Favre x 2

Vinny Testaverde x 2

Brad Johnson

Doug Flutie

Warren Moon

Phil Simms

Fran Tarkenton

The following guys were 38 or older and played in all 14 games in a season and played pretty regularly or started (back when they played 14 games) . . .

George Blanda x 2

John Brodie

Len Dawson

Sonny Jurgensen

Earl Morrall

Y.A. Tittle

I'm not saying that Warner is a lock to play 16 games, only that older QBs have managed to play full seasons in advanced football years. I would guess Warner may have a higher risk factor than other QBs, but I don't think it's a given that he will miss significant time.

That's all I'm saying. I knew you were sitting there waiting with something like that list, I'm not saying he will get hurt, I'm saying the risk is greater than a mid 20 something like Rivers or Cutler.

 

[David Yudkin]

That's all I'm saying. I knew you were sitting there waiting with something like that list, I'm not saying he will get hurt, I'm saying the risk is greater than a mid 20 something like Rivers or Cutler.

IMO, winning at fantasy football is getting a weekly scoring advantage, as that is what wins games. No matter how you slice it, Warner has put up ELITE passing totals in Arizona in the games he's played. The magnitude of his accomplishments has been overshadowed by the fact that other than last year he has not always been the starter each week. But he's had 3 years of starting (just spaced out over 4 seasons) and in that time has averaged 4500 yards and 30 TD when you extrapolate his numbers to a 16 game season.Given that, I would much rather have that guy for say 12 weeks than a 3200/20 guy like Eli (who ranked 13th last year). Warner can win fantasy games by himself on a good week. How many QBs can you really say that about (without it being a fluke)?Brady is in a similar category coming off a major injury, yet Brady is a Top 20 draft pick so far this year. Granted, he's a little younger, but the fact remains that he can put up lights out numbers each and every week.I'd venture to guess that a pairing of Warner and a run of the mill fantasy backup for 4 games will outproduce many other QBs that others would rather have than Warner because of his age and injury risk. Of course, should Warner miss more than that things would start to get dicey . . .

 

[5-ish Finkle]

That's all I'm saying. I knew you were sitting there waiting with something like that list, I'm not saying he will get hurt, I'm saying the risk is greater than a mid 20 something like Rivers or Cutler.

IMO, winning at fantasy football is getting a weekly scoring advantage, as that is what wins games. No matter how you slice it, Warner has put up ELITE passing totals in Arizona in the games he's played. The magnitude of his accomplishments has been overshadowed by the fact that other than last year he has not always been the starter each week. But he's had 3 years of starting (just spaced out over 4 seasons) and in that time has averaged 4500 yards and 30 TD when you extrapolate his numbers to a 16 game season.Given that, I would much rather have that guy for say 12 weeks than a 3200/20 guy like Eli (who ranked 13th last year). Warner can win fantasy games by himself on a good week. How many QBs can you really say that about (without it being a fluke)?Brady is in a similar category coming off a major injury, yet Brady is a Top 20 draft pick so far this year. Granted, he's a little younger, but the fact remains that he can put up lights out numbers each and every week.I'd venture to guess that a pairing of Warner and a run of the mill fantasy backup for 4 games will outproduce many other QBs that others would rather have than Warner because of his age and injury risk. Of course, should Warner miss more than that things would start to get dicey . . .

I agree with everything you're saying here in theory, but I'm not concerned Warner'll miss 4 games. I'm concerned he'll only PLAY in 4 games. The hip stuff really worries me. It's not like he was that mobile to begin with. If I felt I could get him even a round later than his current projected ADP I'd feel a whole lot better about him, but I don't think that'll happen in most of my leagues.To be fair, I wouldn't want any part of Brady(or any QB, really) at his projected ADP even if he weren't coming off the leg stuff. Top 20 picks on ANY quarterback are usually too rich for my tastes.

 

[David Yudkin]

That's all I'm saying. I knew you were sitting there waiting with something like that list, I'm not saying he will get hurt, I'm saying the risk is greater than a mid 20 something like Rivers or Cutler.

IMO, winning at fantasy football is getting a weekly scoring advantage, as that is what wins games. No matter how you slice it, Warner has put up ELITE passing totals in Arizona in the games he's played. The magnitude of his accomplishments has been overshadowed by the fact that other than last year he has not always been the starter each week. But he's had 3 years of starting (just spaced out over 4 seasons) and in that time has averaged 4500 yards and 30 TD when you extrapolate his numbers to a 16 game season.Given that, I would much rather have that guy for say 12 weeks than a 3200/20 guy like Eli (who ranked 13th last year). Warner can win fantasy games by himself on a good week. How many QBs can you really say that about (without it being a fluke)?Brady is in a similar category coming off a major injury, yet Brady is a Top 20 draft pick so far this year. Granted, he's a little younger, but the fact remains that he can put up lights out numbers each and every week.I'd venture to guess that a pairing of Warner and a run of the mill fantasy backup for 4 games will outproduce many other QBs that others would rather have than Warner because of his age and injury risk. Of course, should Warner miss more than that things would start to get dicey . . .

I agree with everything you're saying here in theory, but I'm not concerned Warner'll miss 4 games. I'm concerned he'll only PLAY in 4 games. The hip stuff really worries me. It's not like he was that mobile to begin with. If I felt I could get him even a round later than his current projected ADP I'd feel a whole lot better about him, but I don't think that'll happen in most of my leagues.To be fair, I wouldn't want any part of Brady(or any QB, really) at his projected ADP even if he weren't coming off the leg stuff. Top 20 picks on ANY quarterback are usually too rich for my tastes.

My pet peeve with fantasy analysis and strategy (not your comments in particular) is that I hear all the time that PLAYER X could rank as a Top 12 QB or TE (or Top 24 RB or Top 36 WR). Sure, that's great, and to the letter of the law that would rank PLAYER X as a starter in a 12-team league.BUT . . . people forget that that would make him a BOTTOM OF THE BARRELL starter at his position. Put another way, if you end up with the #12 QB, the #12 and #24 RBs, the #12/24/36 WRs, the #12 TE, etc. then your team will be BELOW AVERAGE at every position compared to other teams.So to these folks that like to make these arguments, congrats, you just configured a last place team. I realize that much of this is theoretical and injuries will play a major role in determining good teams from bad, but the goal is to score the most points as possible each week.From the leagues that I have played in over the years, passing over high PPG guys for safe picks is a way to be a decent team and might get you in the money, but it's a lot like playing for par every hole.Last I heard, Warner had been medically cleared to play in May, Warner himself indicated that the pain was getting much better, and that there should be no issues heading into training camp and he was well ahead of schedule. Maybe things will take a turn for the worst, but as of now it seems like things are apparently good to go.

 

[MAC_32]

That's all I'm saying. I knew you were sitting there waiting with something like that list, I'm not saying he will get hurt, I'm saying the risk is greater than a mid 20 something like Rivers or Cutler.

IMO, winning at fantasy football is getting a weekly scoring advantage, as that is what wins games. No matter how you slice it, Warner has put up ELITE passing totals in Arizona in the games he's played. The magnitude of his accomplishments has been overshadowed by the fact that other than last year he has not always been the starter each week. But he's had 3 years of starting (just spaced out over 4 seasons) and in that time has averaged 4500 yards and 30 TD when you extrapolate his numbers to a 16 game season.Given that, I would much rather have that guy for say 12 weeks than a 3200/20 guy like Eli (who ranked 13th last year). Warner can win fantasy games by himself on a good week. How many QBs can you really say that about (without it being a fluke)?Brady is in a similar category coming off a major injury, yet Brady is a Top 20 draft pick so far this year. Granted, he's a little younger, but the fact remains that he can put up lights out numbers each and every week.I'd venture to guess that a pairing of Warner and a run of the mill fantasy backup for 4 games will outproduce many other QBs that others would rather have than Warner because of his age and injury risk. Of course, should Warner miss more than that things would start to get dicey . . .

Not arguing any of the above and I think anyone who puts Eli into the same conversation as Warner should probably look for a new hobby. That said, things were different re Warner when his risk came at the price peaked at a low end QB1/high end QB2 last year. I love taking two of those upside guys (looking at Carson, Hass, and Schaub this year) and Warner was a perfect fit last year, this year? It depends how far he falls and the type of league I'm in. I've seen mixed results so far, sometimes going in the top 50-60 picks as the 5th QB off the board, other times in the 70-80 range as the 8th or 9th QB off the board. I welcome the risk at the latter and let someone else take it at the former, if it's a shallower league I'd be more likely to slightly reach for him since it's easier to replace him, but last year will drive up the price very high in some people's eyes, especially those that rode him to the playoffs.

 

[David Yudkin]

Since it seems somewhat topical . . .

PPG over the past 3 years:

Tom Brady 23.7

Drew Brees 22.1

Peyton Manning 21.9

Donovan McNabb 20.9

Michael Vick 19.6

Tony Romo 19.6

Kurt Warner 19.4

Shaun Hill 19.2

Aaron Rodgers 19.1

Jay Cutler 19.1

Philip Rivers 18.0

Carson Palmer 18.0

Ben Roethlisberger 17.7

Tyler Thigpen 17.5

Brett Favre 17.2

Jon Kitna 17.1

Matt Hasselbeck 16.8

David Garrard 16.7

Jake Delhomme 15.8

Derek Anderson 15.8

Jeff Garcia 15.8

Eli Manning 15.8

Chad Pennington 15.5

Jason Campbell 15.5

Matt Ryan 15.4

 

[MAC_32]

Since it seems somewhat topical . . .PPG over the past 3 years:Tom Brady 23.7Drew Brees 22.1Peyton Manning 21.9Donovan McNabb 20.9Michael Vick 19.6Tony Romo 19.6Kurt Warner 19.4Shaun Hill 19.2Aaron Rodgers 19.1Jay Cutler 19.1Philip Rivers 18.0Carson Palmer 18.0Ben Roethlisberger 17.7Tyler Thigpen 17.5Brett Favre 17.2Jon Kitna 17.1Matt Hasselbeck 16.8David Garrard 16.7Jake Delhomme 15.8Derek Anderson 15.8Jeff Garcia 15.8Eli Manning 15.8Chad Pennington 15.5Jason Campbell 15.5Matt Ryan 15.4

What's your point? If you want him you usually need to draft him instead of guys like Romo, Cutler, Rodgers, McNabb, Cutler, and Rivers. Their respective PPG's are all similar to Warner's, who is basically either equal to or lesser than all of them except for Rivers.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

My pet peeve with fantasy analysis and strategy (not your comments in particular) is that I hear all the time that PLAYER X could rank as a Top 12 QB or TE (or Top 24 RB or Top 36 WR). Sure, that's great, and to the letter of the law that would rank PLAYER X as a starter in a 12-team league.BUT . . . people forget that that would make him a BOTTOM OF THE BARRELL starter at his position. Put another way, if you end up with the #12 QB, the #12 and #24 RBs, the #12/24/36 WRs, the #12 TE, etc. then your team will be BELOW AVERAGE at every position compared to other teams.So to these folks that like to make these arguments, congrats, you just configured a last place team. I realize that much of this is theoretical and injuries will play a major role in determining good teams from bad, but the goal is to score the most points as possible each week.

I hear where you're coming from about that, but that's not what I was trying to say. I'm more concerned about finding the guy I can potentially draft at QB8-10ish that is going to perform as QB4-5. I would hope no one WANTS to settle for "QB12." I know I don't.Your list highlights almost exactly why I'm not enamoured of Warner's projected ADP/given question marks at present. I could potentially wait a round, maybe more, and get another "PPG stud", who probably has as likely of a chance to finish top 5 or 6 in McNabb, but without the age and recent surgical concerns.I'm splitting hairs here. You'll get no argument from me that in the games Warner plays in, he's probably going to score like a top 5 QB. I just think the risk of him playing in too few games to justify his pricetag is higher than I'm comfortable with, as of today anyway.

 

[David Yudkin]

My pet peeve with fantasy analysis and strategy (not your comments in particular) is that I hear all the time that PLAYER X could rank as a Top 12 QB or TE (or Top 24 RB or Top 36 WR). Sure, that's great, and to the letter of the law that would rank PLAYER X as a starter in a 12-team league.BUT . . . people forget that that would make him a BOTTOM OF THE BARRELL starter at his position. Put another way, if you end up with the #12 QB, the #12 and #24 RBs, the #12/24/36 WRs, the #12 TE, etc. then your team will be BELOW AVERAGE at every position compared to other teams.So to these folks that like to make these arguments, congrats, you just configured a last place team. I realize that much of this is theoretical and injuries will play a major role in determining good teams from bad, but the goal is to score the most points as possible each week.

I hear where you're coming from about that, but that's not what I was trying to say. I'm more concerned about finding the guy I can potentially draft at QB8-10ish that is going to perform as QB4-5. I would hope no one WANTS to settle for "QB12." I know I don't.Your list highlights almost exactly why I'm not enamoured of Warner's projected ADP/given question marks at present. I could potentially wait a round, maybe more, and get another "PPG stud", who probably has as likely of a chance to finish top 5 or 6 in McNabb, but without the age and recent surgical concerns.I'm splitting hairs here. You'll get no argument from me that in the games Warner plays in, he's probably going to score like a top 5 QB. I just think the risk of him playing in too few games to justify his pricetag is higher than I'm comfortable with, as of today anyway.

Not that it makes a ton of difference, but Warner's more accurate PPG in Arizona is 21.3 (counting all full games and post season games). IMO, Brady, Manning, Brees, Warner, and McNabb are pretty similar in that they belong in a similar PPG tier. Based on past history I'd probably throw Romo in the mix, but I think losing T.O. will hurt him.

 

[Dancing Bear]

Folks are way underestimating the capability that Kurt Warner has to perform at a HIGH level and to distribute the ball to whomever is "open" as a receiver.

There have been 88 receiver pairs to eclipse 1,000 yards each within a season and 5 receiver trios to eclipse 1,000 yards each within a season.

Warner has QB'd 5 of the 88 pairs and 1 of the 5 trios.

Of the 85 receiver pairs with a next year's history [3 are from 2008], 21 repeated the very next year [25% chance of repeating].

Of the 4 receiver trios with a next year's history [1 is from 2008], a pair within the trio repeated 2 times the next year, one time in the 2nd year and the fourth did not repeat [75% chance of repeating].

That's pretty fair odds for having a follow-up year equivalent to the previous one!

 

[Dancing Bear]

A bit more food for thought.

Here is the list of top QB's in NFL history who championed pairs or trios of 1,000 yard receivers.

Kurt Warner - 4-1/2 pairs, 1 trio

Warren Moon - 5-1/2 pairs

Mark Brunell - 4 pairs

Dan Fouts - 3 pairs, 1 trio

John Elway - 3 pairs

Brett Favre - 3 pairs

Dan Marino - 3 pairs

Scott Mitchell - 3 pairs

Jeff George - 2 pairs, 1 trio

Peyton Manning - 2 pairs, 1 trio

Marc Bulger - 2-1/2 pairs

Brad Johnson - 2-1/2 pairs

From the other side of the ball here are the top 1,000 yard receivers to be matched up with at least one other 1,000 yard receiver.

Cris Carter - 7 pairs

Isaac Bruce - 6 pairs

Randy Moss - 5 pairs

Torry Holt - 5 pairs

Rod Smith - 5 pairs

Don Maynard - 4 pairs

Keenan McCardell - 4 pairs

Jake Reed - 4 pairs

Jerry Rice - 4 pairs

Jimmy Smith - 4 pairs

Note that none of these top receivers has been part of a trio ...

 

[Coach Pantusso]

350/545/4250

28 TDs

19 INTs

This should be right in the ballpark...I like him for 364/575-4205-29-19.

Also consider that he is one of the few top tier QBs whose replacement MAY be a serviceable QB2 (fringe QB1?) if Warner gets injured. All other guys (Brees, Romo, Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Rivers) have no one behind them that you would want to start on Sundays. If you draft them high and lose them, you are simply struggling to account for their lost numbers.

If the timing was right, I wouldn't mind grabbing up Warner and handcuffing Leinart later in the draft for cheaper. Please do not flame based on my assessment of Leinart (I don't love him), I am simply saying I like him (with his supporting cast) more than Brunell, Kitna, Sorgi, O'Connell, Flynn and Volek...which isn't saying much.

 

[rzrback77]

Kurt Warner is an interesting projection for 2009. He has the accuracy, touch, and weapons to finish as the top QB and he has a current ADP of QB6 and 41 overall. He had three 1,000 yard WRs a year ago and they all return. They drafted a rookie RB in the first round and there are some that think that the Cards will run more than they did a year ago, but with a chance at the top QB at a price for the QB6 that appears to be a gamble worth taking.

Warner has been extremely productive in the past two seasons. In 07, he didn't start until the third game and still finished as QB10. Last year, he finished as QB4. He has averaged over 7.5 ypa over those two years. He has averaged 1.9 TDs per game. He has had twelve games with over 300 yards passing and elevn games with more than two TDs. Consistent and high scoring, with the main threat being his age. But, even there, his arm is younger than he is. Compare that he has attempted 3,559 passes in his NFL career with Brett Favre's 9,282 attempts. For his age, he does well escaping sacks and was sacked 26 times a year ago. He also ranked 3rd in QB rating last year.

Kurt Warner 375 completions in 560 attetmpts 67% 4200 yards 7.5 ypa 28 TDs

 

[Routilla]

I see some folks are hesitant with Warner this year because of Beanie and their OL as being suspect. Well, you can't have it both ways. If the OL is suspect then that means Beanie is overvalued and the passing game will again be paramount. To me the biggest question is did AZ improve enough defensively to not make the passing game critically important? I say they will give up 20 points a game and be in pass mode for the majority of their games. If Warner was able to not only get through but shred two of the most blitz-happy defenses in the league (PHI & PIT) to end the year, I don't see why injury is such a concern.

4000 and 25 is his floor IMO.

 

[dcgangstas]

I know, he's 38 years old. He's coming off hip surgery. He didn't really play all that well in the pre-season.

And yet, I wouldn't ever discount Kurt Warner. He has an incredible wide receiver corps at his disposal, an extremely pass-happy offensive scheme, and weak NFC West competition to feast on. Warner was only sacked 26 times last season, much of which can be attributed to his quick release.

The Cardinals have perhaps the best strength of schedule from a passing perspective. And the competition during the FF playoffs is a near cakewalk.

Dec. 14# at San Francisco (ESPN) CandlestickPark 6:30 PM

Dec. 20 at Detroit Lions* Ford Field 11:00 AM

Dec. 27 ST. LOUIS RAMS* Univ. of Phoenix Stadium 2:05 PM

Jan. 3 GREEN BAY PACKERS* Univ. Of Phoenix Stadium 2:15 PM

For those that continue their FF season thru Week 17, the matchup with the Packers has shoot-out written all over it.

DC's projection: 15 games played, 4150 yards passing, 29 passing TDs; rushing yardage: You can't be serious.

 

[jackdubl]

I think Warner's injury history is a bit overblown.1999 - no injuries, great season (MVP)2000 - broke his hand and missed 6 games, still had a great season2001 - no injuries, great season (MVP)2002 - broke finger and missed several games, played poorly when he played2003 - got a concussion and fumbled 6 times in the opener and was benched2004 - no injuries, played pretty well, but Giants chose to switch to Eli, their new franchise QB, after 9 games2005 - injured groin and missed a few games, later partly tore MCL, but played pretty well when he played2006 - no injuries, played pretty well but was benched for Leinart until Leinart was hurt2007 - no injuries, played very well in relief of Leinart and after eventually becoming the starter2008 - no injuries, great season

Warner's injury history is definitely overblown. He started under Mike Martz, the worst OC ever for protecting the QB. How many QB's under Martz have made it through a season? The bottom line is, since Whisenhunt took over( a guy who likes to protect his QB's) Warner hasn't missed a game due to injury. Also, the talk about his hip is way overblown. He hurt that hip halfway through last season. It didn't seem to cause much trouble then, so why would it be a bigger deal now that he has had surgery to repair it?

 

[CiscoKid]

I think Warner's injury history is a bit overblown.1999 - no injuries, great season (MVP)2000 - broke his hand and missed 6 games, still had a great season2001 - no injuries, great season (MVP)2002 - broke finger and missed several games, played poorly when he played2003 - got a concussion and fumbled 6 times in the opener and was benched2004 - no injuries, played pretty well, but Giants chose to switch to Eli, their new franchise QB, after 9 games2005 - injured groin and missed a few games, later partly tore MCL, but played pretty well when he played2006 - no injuries, played pretty well but was benched for Leinart until Leinart was hurt2007 - no injuries, played very well in relief of Leinart and after eventually becoming the starter2008 - no injuries, great season

Warner's injury history is definitely overblown. He started under Mike Martz, the worst OC ever for protecting the QB. How many QB's under Martz have made it through a season? The bottom line is, since Whisenhunt took over( a guy who likes to protect his QB's) Warner hasn't missed a game due to injury. Also, the talk about his hip is way overblown. He hurt that hip halfway through last season. It didn't seem to cause much trouble then, so why would it be a bigger deal now that he has had surgery to repair it?

My guess is because the surgery has been reported to take up to one full year to recover from, and reports have stated that it looks like the hip is bothering him more than it did last year. The rest is just speculation that he's more susceptible to an injury given his age and prior history, IMHO.