Player Spotlight: LaDainian Tomlinson (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers

Player Page Link: LaDainian Tomlinson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Phlash]

The guy has led the league in rushing yards for the past two seasons, and while he will be 29 and has plenty of tread on his tire, he is a one of a kind talent. I expect similar production next season.

330/1450/14 on the ground

50/400/3 in the air

 

[a_troll00]

Last year at this time, LT2 was the consensus ranked #1 fantasy pick and he lived up to it. I had him on a roster last season and he was great.

In the playoffs last year, he injured his knee and sat on the bench for most of the NE game. Mark me as one of those who thinks he might be showing some wear and tear. He is definitely a high mileage vehicle.

Still, I'll give him a fairly optimistic projection.

310 1400 15 rushing 50 400 3 receiving

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I think it's helpful to compare LT to the greats of the past decade: Marshall, Priest, and Shaun Alexander. They each had record setting seasons, and saw the inevitable decline in numbers over the following season(s).

Shaun Alexander had 27 rushing TDs in 2005. At the end of that season, he had 1717 career rushes. The following season, the wheels pretty much came off of the wagon, at least in terms of expectations following his career year.

Priest Holmes had 27 rushing TDs in 2003. At the end of that season, he had 1223 career rushes. In 2004, he split time with LJ, and finished with 896 yards and 14 TDs, very respectable numbers, but not #1 material by a longshot. At the end of this season, he had 1615 career rushes. Priest was effectively worthless in fantasy terms after this season.

Marshall Faulk's decline was by far the most gradual. He was the #1 ranked FF player in both 2000 and 2001 (his record setting 26 total TDs came in 2000). At the close of the 2001 season, Marshall had 2155 career rushes. He also had 548 career catches, for a total of 2703 career touches. In 2002, he had 212 carries for 953 yards and 8 rushing TDs, and also 80 catches for 537 yards and 2 more TDs, good for 14th in FF points. After 2002, his career touches were up to 2995. In 2003, he played 11 games, finished 16th in FF scoring, and added another 254 total touches, putting his career touch total up to 3249. In 2004 and 2005, he finished 29th and 53th respectively in FF scoring.

LT has 2365 career rushes, and 458 career receptions, for a total of 2823 career touches. He's been the #1 FF player in the land for the past two seasons. He's missed only ONE game in his 7 year NFL career. There are minor worrying signs that his reign will come to an end soon, the question is, will it be this year?

The trends from Faulk, Holmes and Alexander show that when the RB's day is done, it is done quickly. While not everyone falls off the map and into oblivion as quickly as Shaun Alexander, the drop from the top is significant. LT has more career touches by a mile than Alexander and Holmes did when they saw their drop offs, and slightly more than Faulk when he dropped from #1 to #14.

I am one who HATES trying to "predict" injuries. Fragile Fred Taylor has proved to be a beacon of health in recent years. Brian Westbrook has shown that he can handle 300+ touches in back to back seasons (ok, he did miss one game each year, but overall his health has been great and those who were afraid of him for injury concerns missed out on the #6 and #2 FF RB in the past two seasons, respectively). I do not think that predicting the decline/end of a career is the same, however, especially given the trends from Alexander, Faulk, and Priest. I'm not saying that LT will fall suffer a career ending injury in training camp, but it would DEFY THE ODDS if he continued to put up #1 RB numbers. Is that something you want to bank on from your #1 overall pick? Not me, I would take AP, SJ, Westy, and Addai ahead of him, and possibly Brady and Moss, depending on what scoring system I'm in, as I believe they are all "safer" picks, and risk is not something I want with my high first rounder.

I'll give LT a more Faulk-like decline in numbers:

220 carries 1034 yards 4.7 average 10 TDs

40 catches 320 yards 8.0 average 2 TDs

207.4 Total Points, good for 9th in my RB rankings.

 

[Tanner9919]

I don't worry about the age or the mileage with LT2..he has a superior O-line, a great play-calling OC/HC combo that includes Norv Turner, and he plays 6 games/yr in the defensively challenged AFC West..

AT the top of your fantasy draft, LT2 is a MUCH safer pick than A. Peterson is.. you know what you're getting from Tomlinson, roughly 1400 yards rushing, 70+ receptions, 15-18 total TDs..

As for Peterson, you're getting a guy who averaged just 50.8 yards/gm during the final 6 weeks of 2007.during that span, he caught just 7 balls...

its a no brainer , IMO, LT2 is the de facto #1 fantasy pick ( if you're taking a RB , that is)..He has been for years, he should continue to be thought of as the most sought-after player in FF..

 

[Tanner9919]

I don't worry about the age or the mileage with LT2..he has a superior O-line, a great play-calling OC/HC combo that includes Norv Turner, and he plays 6 games/yr in the defensively challenged AFC West..

AT the top of your fantasy draft, LT2 is a MUCH safer pick than A. Peterson is.. you know what you're getting from Tomlinson, roughly 1400 yards rushing, 60+ receptions, 15-18 total TDs..

As for Peterson, you're getting a guy who averaged just 50.8 yards/gm during the final 6 weeks of 2007.during that span, he caught just 7 balls...

its a no brainer , IMO, LT2 is the de facto #1 fantasy pick ( if you're taking a RB , that is)..He has been for years, he should continue to be thought of as the most sought-after player in FF..

337/1516/16

65/482/2

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I dont understand how you can just discount the age/mileage. Alexander, Priest, and Faulk all had GREAT O-Lines and probably better overall offenses than the Chargers do in 2008, or at least it is a push. I can of course see why most people place him at #1, but I don't understand how you can not be concerned about his age/mileage.

 

[David Yudkin]

I dont understand how you can just discount the age/mileage. Alexander, Priest, and Faulk all had GREAT O-Lines and probably better overall offenses than the Chargers do in 2008, or at least it is a push. I can of course see why most people place him at #1, but I don't understand how you can not be concerned about his age/mileage.

The backs you mentioned all got hurt. We can debate how banged up LT was at the end of last season, but his performance up until then hadn't dropped off any (his record breaking season not withstanding).

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I dont understand how you can just discount the age/mileage. Alexander, Priest, and Faulk all had GREAT O-Lines and probably better overall offenses than the Chargers do in 2008, or at least it is a push. I can of course see why most people place him at #1, but I don't understand how you can not be concerned about his age/mileage.

The backs you mentioned all got hurt. We can debate how banged up LT was at the end of last season, but his performance up until then hadn't dropped off any (his record breaking season not withstanding).

But the performances of SA, Priest, and Faulk hadn't deteriorated either. Alexander had back to back seasons at #1, and then fell to #28. Marshall Faulk went #3, #2, #1, and #1 before falling to #14. Priest went #2, #1, #1 before falling to #12. My point is that no one expects the drop off when it happens, but there is a strong correlation between the drop off happening after the RB clears 2000 carries. LT has gone 7, 3, 2, 3, 3, 1, 1 over his seven year career. This is right at the point where the others fell off, so I don't understand why the concensus seems to be "it can't happen to LT."

 

[Sopranos]

I understand the age and carries concern BUT, He still has the most upside to be the #1 player. All players have concern IMO. Addai or Ad are closing in but i will give LT a gamble.. I like AD but i dont like a few games i saw last season. He will have some of the best games we have ever seen but i need to see alittle more consistancy to be the #1 overall..

Stop trying to overthink things. FF is a gamble and the draft is not won in the first round, its won in rounds 4 and above

 

[fsufan]

I think it's helpful to compare LT to the greats of the past decade: Marshall, Priest, and Shaun Alexander. They each had record setting seasons, and saw the inevitable decline in numbers over the following season(s). Shaun Alexander had 27 rushing TDs in 2005. At the end of that season, he had 1717 career rushes. The following season, the wheels pretty much came off of the wagon, at least in terms of expectations following his career year.Priest Holmes had 27 rushing TDs in 2003. At the end of that season, he had 1223 career rushes. In 2004, he split time with LJ, and finished with 896 yards and 14 TDs, very respectable numbers, but not #1 material by a longshot. At the end of this season, he had 1615 career rushes. Priest was effectively worthless in fantasy terms after this season.Marshall Faulk's decline was by far the most gradual. He was the #1 ranked FF player in both 2000 and 2001 (his record setting 26 total TDs came in 2000). At the close of the 2001 season, Marshall had 2155 career rushes. He also had 548 career catches, for a total of 2703 career touches. In 2002, he had 212 carries for 953 yards and 8 rushing TDs, and also 80 catches for 537 yards and 2 more TDs, good for 14th in FF points. After 2002, his career touches were up to 2995. In 2003, he played 11 games, finished 16th in FF scoring, and added another 254 total touches, putting his career touch total up to 3249. In 2004 and 2005, he finished 29th and 53th respectively in FF scoring.LT has 2365 career rushes, and 458 career receptions, for a total of 2823 career touches. He's been the #1 FF player in the land for the past two seasons. He's missed only ONE game in his 7 year NFL career. There are minor worrying signs that his reign will come to an end soon, the question is, will it be this year?The trends from Faulk, Holmes and Alexander show that when the RB's day is done, it is done quickly. While not everyone falls off the map and into oblivion as quickly as Shaun Alexander, the drop from the top is significant. LT has more career touches by a mile than Alexander and Holmes did when they saw their drop offs, and slightly more than Faulk when he dropped from #1 to #14. I am one who HATES trying to "predict" injuries. Fragile Fred Taylor has proved to be a beacon of health in recent years. Brian Westbrook has shown that he can handle 300+ touches in back to back seasons (ok, he did miss one game each year, but overall his health has been great and those who were afraid of him for injury concerns missed out on the #6 and #2 FF RB in the past two seasons, respectively). I do not think that predicting the decline/end of a career is the same, however, especially given the trends from Alexander, Faulk, and Priest. I'm not saying that LT will fall suffer a career ending injury in training camp, but it would DEFY THE ODDS if he continued to put up #1 RB numbers. Is that something you want to bank on from your #1 overall pick? Not me, I would take AP, SJ, Westy, and Addai ahead of him, and possibly Brady and Moss, depending on what scoring system I'm in, as I believe they are all "safer" picks, and risk is not something I want with my high first rounder. I'll give LT a more Faulk-like decline in numbers:220 carries 1034 yards 4.7 average 10 TDs40 catches 320 yards 8.0 average 2 TDs207.4 Total Points, good for 9th in my RB rankings.

do you really think LT will get only 220 carries, that comes to 13.75 per game.

 

[David Yudkin]

I dont understand how you can just discount the age/mileage. Alexander, Priest, and Faulk all had GREAT O-Lines and probably better overall offenses than the Chargers do in 2008, or at least it is a push. I can of course see why most people place him at #1, but I don't understand how you can not be concerned about his age/mileage.

The backs you mentioned all got hurt. We can debate how banged up LT was at the end of last season, but his performance up until then hadn't dropped off any (his record breaking season not withstanding).

But the performances of SA, Priest, and Faulk hadn't deteriorated either. Alexander had back to back seasons at #1, and then fell to #28. Marshall Faulk went #3, #2, #1, and #1 before falling to #14. Priest went #2, #1, #1 before falling to #12. My point is that no one expects the drop off when it happens, but there is a strong correlation between the drop off happening after the RB clears 2000 carries. LT has gone 7, 3, 2, 3, 3, 1, 1 over his seven year career. This is right at the point where the others fell off, so I don't understand why the concensus seems to be "it can't happen to LT."

I'm not saying it CAN'T happen, only that the guys you mentioned got hurt. Also, Holmes was producing at the same level as he was prior, so he ranked 12th MISSING HALF THE SEASON. Faulk also was still productive, just not scoring as many TD. SA likely would have still been a Top 10 back (even doing way worse than normal) had he not gotten hurt.But since you mentioned it, here were how some other big carry backs and how well they did after they hit 2000 carries. Note that there were other seasons mixed in with these, but each of these guys put up some decent years:Emmitt 5, 5, 6Payton 4, 4, 4, 5Martin 4, 5Sanders, 1, 6, 10Allen 5Dickerson 9Dorsett 6Riggins 3, 7George 10As far as LT goes, he's done things that others haven't done, so that's part of the reason he gets more love.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I think it's helpful to compare LT to the greats of the past decade: Marshall, Priest, and Shaun Alexander. They each had record setting seasons, and saw the inevitable decline in numbers over the following season(s). Shaun Alexander had 27 rushing TDs in 2005. At the end of that season, he had 1717 career rushes. The following season, the wheels pretty much came off of the wagon, at least in terms of expectations following his career year.Priest Holmes had 27 rushing TDs in 2003. At the end of that season, he had 1223 career rushes. In 2004, he split time with LJ, and finished with 896 yards and 14 TDs, very respectable numbers, but not #1 material by a longshot. At the end of this season, he had 1615 career rushes. Priest was effectively worthless in fantasy terms after this season.Marshall Faulk's decline was by far the most gradual. He was the #1 ranked FF player in both 2000 and 2001 (his record setting 26 total TDs came in 2000). At the close of the 2001 season, Marshall had 2155 career rushes. He also had 548 career catches, for a total of 2703 career touches. In 2002, he had 212 carries for 953 yards and 8 rushing TDs, and also 80 catches for 537 yards and 2 more TDs, good for 14th in FF points. After 2002, his career touches were up to 2995. In 2003, he played 11 games, finished 16th in FF scoring, and added another 254 total touches, putting his career touch total up to 3249. In 2004 and 2005, he finished 29th and 53th respectively in FF scoring.LT has 2365 career rushes, and 458 career receptions, for a total of 2823 career touches. He's been the #1 FF player in the land for the past two seasons. He's missed only ONE game in his 7 year NFL career. There are minor worrying signs that his reign will come to an end soon, the question is, will it be this year?The trends from Faulk, Holmes and Alexander show that when the RB's day is done, it is done quickly. While not everyone falls off the map and into oblivion as quickly as Shaun Alexander, the drop from the top is significant. LT has more career touches by a mile than Alexander and Holmes did when they saw their drop offs, and slightly more than Faulk when he dropped from #1 to #14. I am one who HATES trying to "predict" injuries. Fragile Fred Taylor has proved to be a beacon of health in recent years. Brian Westbrook has shown that he can handle 300+ touches in back to back seasons (ok, he did miss one game each year, but overall his health has been great and those who were afraid of him for injury concerns missed out on the #6 and #2 FF RB in the past two seasons, respectively). I do not think that predicting the decline/end of a career is the same, however, especially given the trends from Alexander, Faulk, and Priest. I'm not saying that LT will fall suffer a career ending injury in training camp, but it would DEFY THE ODDS if he continued to put up #1 RB numbers. Is that something you want to bank on from your #1 overall pick? Not me, I would take AP, SJ, Westy, and Addai ahead of him, and possibly Brady and Moss, depending on what scoring system I'm in, as I believe they are all "safer" picks, and risk is not something I want with my high first rounder. I'll give LT a more Faulk-like decline in numbers:220 carries 1034 yards 4.7 average 10 TDs40 catches 320 yards 8.0 average 2 TDs207.4 Total Points, good for 9th in my RB rankings.

do you really think LT will get only 220 carries, that comes to 13.75 per game.

Of course I don't think that he'll play in all 16 games and only get 14 carries a game. But if he misses 4 whole games, and has limited roles in 2 more (something like 10 carries each), then those remaining 200 carries fall over 10 games for 20 carries/game.

 

[Synthesizer]

I understand the age and carries concern BUT, He still has the most upside to be the #1 player. All players have concern IMO. Addai or Ad are closing in but i will give LT a gamble.. I like AD but i dont like a few games i saw last season. He will have some of the best games we have ever seen but i need to see alittle more consistancy to be the #1 overall..

Stop trying to overthink things. FF is a gamble and the draft is not won in the first round, its won in rounds 4 and above

Always bet with a streak, not against it. People have been predicting his downfall for YEARS based on his high mileage. They have all been wrong. Obviously he'll slow down or get injured sometime but he just turned 29 and looked great last year. There really isn't any good reason to think the slowdown will happen this year. 2008 will look a lot like 2007 for LT......

320/1450/15

65/450/3

 

[sholditch]

I think this is some pretty measured analysis that people would be wise not to ignore. I owned SA in a dynasty and deeply regret not getting something for him when I could. Instead I ignored the warning signs and kept hoping for another top 10 finish so I could get something for him. That never happened and I cut him this year.

I think bigmiiiike has done some pretty good analysis here and it shouldn't be ignored. The other backs did have injuries and changes that led to their decline (except for Faulk, who LT resembles more than any other in terms of wear and ability). Basically, I would be less worried about selecting LT in a redraft than I would be owning him in a dynasty. In terms of odds, the odds of getting top value for him in a trade are getting longer by the day. I would look to trade him to a win now team but not have a fire sale. If you can get someone like Addai for him I'd do it in a heartbeat, but would also strongly consider 2-1s with a decent RB prospect back.

My projections are a bit rosier for this year, but I see this year also having a very negative affect on his trade value. Sell before the season starts or very early in a dynasty, and at least consider some safer options at 1-3 in redraft.

250 carries for 1200 and 11 TDs rushing

55 receptions for 550 and 4 TDs receiving

2 passing TDs.

misses 1-2 games

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Best running back in the game. You ride him until the wheels fall off.

 

[T Bell]

Until I see differently, I still think (as I have for two years now) that the model for his career is Walter Payton's career. By that measure, it's 1982 (using Payton's career seasons), and he's got 4-5 more top performing seasons left.

320/1440/15

60/475/3

 

[Morton Muffley]

He may have put up great numbers last year, but those of us who watched him can tell you that he was not the same player. I had LT on my team last year (and in 2 of the previous four years though sadly NOT his record breaking year) and what I saw was a "sluggishness" that only got worse as the year went along. Yes, he still has the vision. Yes, he still has a great O-line. Yes, he still has a great feel for the endzone. Yes, they will still feed him the ball (on the ground, in the air and most importantly in the red zone). But he is most definitely NOT the same player.

So where do I project him? I project that I'd draft him first overall, but would be looking to move him for a package of players before week six.

 

[cstu]

I dont understand how you can just discount the age/mileage. Alexander, Priest, and Faulk all had GREAT O-Lines and probably better overall offenses than the Chargers do in 2008, or at least it is a push. I can of course see why most people place him at #1, but I don't understand how you can not be concerned about his age/mileage.

The backs you mentioned all got hurt. We can debate how banged up LT was at the end of last season, but his performance up until then hadn't dropped off any (his record breaking season not withstanding).

But the performances of SA, Priest, and Faulk hadn't deteriorated either. Alexander had back to back seasons at #1, and then fell to #28. Marshall Faulk went #3, #2, #1, and #1 before falling to #14. Priest went #2, #1, #1 before falling to #12. My point is that no one expects the drop off when it happens, but there is a strong correlation between the drop off happening after the RB clears 2000 carries. LT has gone 7, 3, 2, 3, 3, 1, 1 over his seven year career. This is right at the point where the others fell off, so I don't understand why the concensus seems to be "it can't happen to LT."

I think you're being intellectually dishonest by picking these guys instead of guys like Emmitt and Martin, we know what you're trying to do and it's not working.- Alexander lost Hutchinson and his play fell off as many people expected. He also got injured.- Priest got injured in 2004 at age 31 and had a spinal injury in 2005 that effectively ended his career.- Faulk's knee was constantly getting scoped and it finally caught up with him.

 

[cstu]

He may have put up great numbers last year, but those of us who watched him can tell you that he was not the same player. I had LT on my team last year (and in 2 of the previous four years though sadly NOT his record breaking year) and what I saw was a "sluggishness" that only got worse as the year went along. Yes, he still has the vision. Yes, he still has a great O-line. Yes, he still has a great feel for the endzone. Yes, they will still feed him the ball (on the ground, in the air and most importantly in the red zone). But he is most definitely NOT the same player.So where do I project him? I project that I'd draft him first overall, but would be looking to move him for a package of players before week six.

Obviously you can't expect LT to reproduce his record-breaking 2006 season, but to call him "sluggish" is outright wrong considering he had the 3rd highest YPC of his career last year.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I dont understand how you can just discount the age/mileage. Alexander, Priest, and Faulk all had GREAT O-Lines and probably better overall offenses than the Chargers do in 2008, or at least it is a push. I can of course see why most people place him at #1, but I don't understand how you can not be concerned about his age/mileage.

The backs you mentioned all got hurt. We can debate how banged up LT was at the end of last season, but his performance up until then hadn't dropped off any (his record breaking season not withstanding).

But the performances of SA, Priest, and Faulk hadn't deteriorated either. Alexander had back to back seasons at #1, and then fell to #28. Marshall Faulk went #3, #2, #1, and #1 before falling to #14. Priest went #2, #1, #1 before falling to #12. My point is that no one expects the drop off when it happens, but there is a strong correlation between the drop off happening after the RB clears 2000 carries. LT has gone 7, 3, 2, 3, 3, 1, 1 over his seven year career. This is right at the point where the others fell off, so I don't understand why the concensus seems to be "it can't happen to LT."

I think you're being intellectually dishonest by picking these guys instead of guys like Emmitt and Martin, we know what you're trying to do and it's not working.- Alexander lost Hutchinson and his play fell off as many people expected. He also got injured.- Priest got injured in 2004 at age 31 and had a spinal injury in 2005 that effectively ended his career.- Faulk's knee was constantly getting scoped and it finally caught up with him.

Curtis Martin was never a #1, record setting back. He had an amazing career, without a doubt, but his career finishes were: 2, 4, 14, 7, 8, 10, 5, 18, 18, 4, 29. Like I said, there were some great seasons in there, but I don't think it is worth putting him in the company of SA, Priest, Faulk, and LT.Emmitt Smith is a freak. His career finishes were as follows: 7, 3, 1, 1, 1, 1, 6, 18, 6, 5, 20, 25, 26, 63, 22. It is true that he had some very good seasons after he hit 2000 carries. However, he hit 2007 carries at the end of his final #1 season. Sure, he had three seasons of rank 6, 6, and 5 after that, but there was also an #18 in there before his carries really got up there, so it is safe to say that he never returned to his truly top-notch form, despite not having a career ending injury. LT has finished #s 7, 3, 2, 3, 3, 1, 1, which is already one season longer than Emmitt's amazing stretch of six great seasons. Let me repeat, EVEN EMMITT SMITH, AFTER FOUR CONSECUTIVE #1 FF RANKED SEASONS, NEVER HAD ANOTHER SEASON WHERE HE WAS BETTER THAN 5TH!!!! Again, I'm not predicting LT to have a career ending injury this season, but somehow, some way, he will probably fall, at least to 5th, this season. Whether it was injury, poor team play, unlucky circumstances, the unaligning of the planets, or something else, no one keeps up this top notch level of play this late into a career. Even if he falls to 5th, 7th, or 10th, he'll have decent year end numbers, but not what you would hope for from your #1 pick.

 

[teamroc]

The guy has led the league in rushing yards for the past two seasons, and while he will be 29 and has plenty of tread on his tire, he is a one of a kind talent. I expect similar production next season.330/1450/14 on the ground50/400/3 in the air

Tread on his tire?Can I ask what that is based on? Obviously not carries. Which would seem like a good measure of "tread". LT has actually carried the ball an insane amount of times. (300 more times then SA) More then any other RB in the top 20. So if LT has plenty of "tread" then so does SA and every other top 20 RB in the league.While I don't think LT is about to fall off the earth, the stats are working against him. And any way you measure "tread" LTs numbers would say he doesn't have much left. However, I put him in the Curtis Martin group. Who had his best year at the age of 31. Special body, avoids big hits, as long as he's healthy will be productive. But like Martin he's probably the exception that proves the rule.

 

[cstu]

I dont understand how you can just discount the age/mileage. Alexander, Priest, and Faulk all had GREAT O-Lines and probably better overall offenses than the Chargers do in 2008, or at least it is a push. I can of course see why most people place him at #1, but I don't understand how you can not be concerned about his age/mileage.

The backs you mentioned all got hurt. We can debate how banged up LT was at the end of last season, but his performance up until then hadn't dropped off any (his record breaking season not withstanding).

But the performances of SA, Priest, and Faulk hadn't deteriorated either. Alexander had back to back seasons at #1, and then fell to #28. Marshall Faulk went #3, #2, #1, and #1 before falling to #14. Priest went #2, #1, #1 before falling to #12. My point is that no one expects the drop off when it happens, but there is a strong correlation between the drop off happening after the RB clears 2000 carries. LT has gone 7, 3, 2, 3, 3, 1, 1 over his seven year career. This is right at the point where the others fell off, so I don't understand why the concensus seems to be "it can't happen to LT."

I think you're being intellectually dishonest by picking these guys instead of guys like Emmitt and Martin, we know what you're trying to do and it's not working.- Alexander lost Hutchinson and his play fell off as many people expected. He also got injured.- Priest got injured in 2004 at age 31 and had a spinal injury in 2005 that effectively ended his career.- Faulk's knee was constantly getting scoped and it finally caught up with him.

Curtis Martin was never a #1, record setting back. He had an amazing career, without a doubt, but his career finishes were: 2, 4, 14, 7, 8, 10, 5, 18, 18, 4, 29. Like I said, there were some great seasons in there, but I don't think it is worth putting him in the company of SA, Priest, Faulk, and LT.Emmitt Smith is a freak. His career finishes were as follows: 7, 3, 1, 1, 1, 1, 6, 18, 6, 5, 20, 25, 26, 63, 22. It is true that he had some very good seasons after he hit 2000 carries. However, he hit 2007 carries at the end of his final #1 season. Sure, he had three seasons of rank 6, 6, and 5 after that, but there was also an #18 in there before his carries really got up there, so it is safe to say that he never returned to his truly top-notch form, despite not having a career ending injury. LT has finished #s 7, 3, 2, 3, 3, 1, 1, which is already one season longer than Emmitt's amazing stretch of six great seasons. Let me repeat, EVEN EMMITT SMITH, AFTER FOUR CONSECUTIVE #1 FF RANKED SEASONS, NEVER HAD ANOTHER SEASON WHERE HE WAS BETTER THAN 5TH!!!! Again, I'm not predicting LT to have a career ending injury this season, but somehow, some way, he will probably fall, at least to 5th, this season. Whether it was injury, poor team play, unlucky circumstances, the unaligning of the planets, or something else, no one keeps up this top notch level of play this late into a career. Even if he falls to 5th, 7th, or 10th, he'll have decent year end numbers, but not what you would hope for from your #1 pick.

I think you're too caught up in the whole "#1 record setting back" thing. LT will likely never produce another season like 2006 since those are usually once in a lifetime. LT has also only finished as the #1 back twice - in the last two years. Look at Payton who never finished higher than #4 after he was 25. However, he was a top 5 back in 5 of the next 7 years despite playing on some pretty bad Bears teams. Regarding LT "falling to 5th", it's pretty rare for the #1 RB drafted to actually end up #1 but barring injury LT will be close.

 

[Jon_Moore]

He's succeeded with it all. He used to have a miserable offensive line, no receivers, terrible quarterback play...yet he has finished now lower than the 3rd best RB since his rookie season. He's finished as the top back each of the last 2 seasons. AND...He's never finished with less than 300 carries...the opportunities are always going to be there for him.

Now, he's got a very good real life quarterback, one of the most athletic receivers in the league, one of the best tight ends...ever and a top 5 defense. The Chargers are poised to win it all this year, and I expect Tomlinson to come out of the gate as hungry as ever. Tomlinson really improved as the season went along.

In his 1st 8 games, he averaged 4.2 Yards a carry

In the back 8 he averaged 5.1 a carry.

In December--5 games--6.1 Yards a carry. He really got better as the season went along.

I think a large part of it is everyone growing comfortable in that Norv Turner offense.

The only real question about him this year is to pick him at 1 or 2. Peterson's the new guy, he's flashy, he's explosive. But after being top 3 for 6 years, top 7 for 7....There's no one I trust more with my fantasy football team than Ladainian Tomlinson

336 Rushes

1612 Rushing Yards

19 TDs

66 Receptions

534 Yards

4 Reciving Tds

 

[rzrback77]

Stud. I hope that I get a high enough draft pick that he will be on my team in 08. Amazingly enough, with all the knee discussions, age concerns, and high mileage talk, this could happen as low as 4th or even 5th. Great OL, solid offense, less talent backing him up, very weak schedule. All signs point to the sky for Tomlinson.

LaDainian Tomlinson 320 carries 1504 yards 4.7 ypc 50 catches 400 yards 8.0 ypc & 18 total TDs

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Lt2 is the best running back in the league. He's lost Turner behind him and he's in for yet another monster year. The Chargers will make a push for the SB this year and he'll be one of the chief reasons why.

1450 yards rushing with 15 td's

55 receptions for 4 td's

3 passes for 45 yards and 2 td's

 

[brady2moss]

I tell you if I pull the #1 pick out of the hat I gotta go complanian tomlinson.

1300 rushing yds 12tds

370 recieving yds 4 tds

25 passing yds 1 td

 

[renesauz]

He may have put up great numbers last year, but those of us who watched him can tell you that he was not the same player. I had LT on my team last year (and in 2 of the previous four years though sadly NOT his record breaking year) and what I saw was a "sluggishness" that only got worse as the year went along. Yes, he still has the vision. Yes, he still has a great O-line. Yes, he still has a great feel for the endzone. Yes, they will still feed him the ball (on the ground, in the air and most importantly in the red zone). But he is most definitely NOT the same player.So where do I project him? I project that I'd draft him first overall, but would be looking to move him for a package of players before week six.

You aren't alone in this. I thought he seemed a hair slower late last year also.That said, I think the "examples" of uber-stud RB's falling off the planet is misleading. Memories of Alexander and Holmes are clouding the judgement of many...and in Holmes' case it's hilarious since he was the top back when he got hurt. Considering LTs durability, it's far more reasonable to assume a slower, Emmit Smith type decline.Now, what I saw late last year was a RB coming back to the pack a little, but still a stud. While I expect a couple RB's to out-produce LT this year, I don't believe there is a SAFER choice for the top spot...IE: If I had to bet my home on one RB to finish top five, it would be LT hands down. For that reason alone, he's still the #1 FF player in the land.Expect 1800 total yards and 14-15 TD's.

 

[kerpow]

LT had a slow start last season in some tough matchups (Chi, NE & GB). Expect a much more productive start to 2008. Yards may not be quite as high as 2 years ago but TD's will be better than last season.

1400/17 Rushing

400/3 Receiving

25/1 Passing

Its the way that he avoids the big hits that suggest to me he's still get plenty left in the tank. Two more seasons at #1

 

[ImTheScientist]

 

[fsufan]

I heard LT on NFL radio last week. He said they are going to use him in the passing game more this year, just wanted to pass along.

 

[JetMaxx]

I heard LT on NFL radio last week. He said they are going to use him in the passing game more this year, just wanted to pass along.

Does that include more passes from Rivers bouncing off his head before he's ready?

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm guessing my write up on LT will probably go against the grain . . . but you'll have to wait until it's posted.

 

[RICK ROMO]

I have the #1 pick in my 12 teamer and will take him based on the fact that he has the easiest run schedule of any team this year.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I'm guessing my write up on LT will probably go against the grain . . . but you'll have to wait until it's posted.

That wasn't really against the grain. Good article though.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm guessing my write up on LT will probably go against the grain . . . but you'll have to wait until it's posted.

That wasn't really against the grain. Good article though.

I'm not sure I've seen anyone with LT as the #5 RB this year.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I'm guessing my write up on LT will probably go against the grain . . . but you'll have to wait until it's posted.

That wasn't really against the grain. Good article though.

I'm not sure I've seen anyone with LT as the #5 RB this year.

Not quite that low but several people I've seen rank him as low as the #3. I'm wrong - it is against the grain I guess your rankings just don't surprise me even when they're unconventional.

 

[Varmint]

I've alway liked LT but never wanted to pay the big bucks to land him...

...that is...until this year.

Never mind that fact that he can score from anywhere in the field....and he can do it by running, receiving, or passing.......

...the fact is that the San Diego Chargers are not afraid to give him the ball !

He's an "all down" back and stays on the field even when its 4th and goal !

I just got tired of watching him score AGANINST me.....

This season he scores FOR me!!

Yeah...I got nipples that could cut glass!!

 

[Banger]

I'm guessing my write up on LT will probably go against the grain . . . but you'll have to wait until it's posted.

That wasn't really against the grain. Good article though.

I'm not sure I've seen anyone with LT as the #5 RB this year.

when/where are the rankings posted?

 

[Phlash]

The guy has led the league in rushing yards for the past two seasons, and while he will be 29 and has plenty of tread on his tire, he is a one of a kind talent. I expect similar production next season.330/1450/14 on the ground50/400/3 in the air

Tread on his tire?Can I ask what that is based on? Obviously not carries. Which would seem like a good measure of "tread". LT has actually carried the ball an insane amount of times. (300 more times then SA) More then any other RB in the top 20. So if LT has plenty of "tread" then so does SA and every other top 20 RB in the league.While I don't think LT is about to fall off the earth, the stats are working against him. And any way you measure "tread" LTs numbers would say he doesn't have much left. However, I put him in the Curtis Martin group. Who had his best year at the age of 31. Special body, avoids big hits, as long as he's healthy will be productive. But like Martin he's probably the exception that proves the rule.

I did mention that he is a "one of a kind talent." He does have a lot of tread on his tires. He's carried the ball on average ~338 carries a year for the past 8 years, which is absolutely crazy. But I also think that he overcomes the tread on his tire simply because he's so talented.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I'm guessing my write up on LT will probably go against the grain . . . but you'll have to wait until it's posted.

That wasn't really against the grain. Good article though.

I'm not sure I've seen anyone with LT as the #5 RB this year.

when/where are the rankings posted?

Yudkin,I realize you put your ranking in the player spotlight but I'm wondering if you're going to do rankings for all the positions? You had done it for qb at one point in time but even that no longer shows. I know you prefer tiers vs. straight rankings but are we ever going to see either from you?

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I think it's helpful to compare LT to the greats of the past decade: Marshall, Priest, and Shaun Alexander. They each had record setting seasons, and saw the inevitable decline in numbers over the following season(s). Shaun Alexander had 27 rushing TDs in 2005. At the end of that season, he had 1717 career rushes. The following season, the wheels pretty much came off of the wagon, at least in terms of expectations following his career year.Priest Holmes had 27 rushing TDs in 2003. At the end of that season, he had 1223 career rushes. In 2004, he split time with LJ, and finished with 896 yards and 14 TDs, very respectable numbers, but not #1 material by a longshot. At the end of this season, he had 1615 career rushes. Priest was effectively worthless in fantasy terms after this season.Marshall Faulk's decline was by far the most gradual. He was the #1 ranked FF player in both 2000 and 2001 (his record setting 26 total TDs came in 2000). At the close of the 2001 season, Marshall had 2155 career rushes. He also had 548 career catches, for a total of 2703 career touches. In 2002, he had 212 carries for 953 yards and 8 rushing TDs, and also 80 catches for 537 yards and 2 more TDs, good for 14th in FF points. After 2002, his career touches were up to 2995. In 2003, he played 11 games, finished 16th in FF scoring, and added another 254 total touches, putting his career touch total up to 3249. In 2004 and 2005, he finished 29th and 53th respectively in FF scoring.LT has 2365 career rushes, and 458 career receptions, for a total of 2823 career touches. He's been the #1 FF player in the land for the past two seasons. He's missed only ONE game in his 7 year NFL career. There are minor worrying signs that his reign will come to an end soon, the question is, will it be this year?The trends from Faulk, Holmes and Alexander show that when the RB's day is done, it is done quickly. While not everyone falls off the map and into oblivion as quickly as Shaun Alexander, the drop from the top is significant. LT has more career touches by a mile than Alexander and Holmes did when they saw their drop offs, and slightly more than Faulk when he dropped from #1 to #14. I am one who HATES trying to "predict" injuries. Fragile Fred Taylor has proved to be a beacon of health in recent years. Brian Westbrook has shown that he can handle 300+ touches in back to back seasons (ok, he did miss one game each year, but overall his health has been great and those who were afraid of him for injury concerns missed out on the #6 and #2 FF RB in the past two seasons, respectively). I do not think that predicting the decline/end of a career is the same, however, especially given the trends from Alexander, Faulk, and Priest. I'm not saying that LT will fall suffer a career ending injury in training camp, but it would DEFY THE ODDS if he continued to put up #1 RB numbers. Is that something you want to bank on from your #1 overall pick? Not me, I would take AP, SJ, Westy, and Addai ahead of him, and possibly Brady and Moss, depending on what scoring system I'm in, as I believe they are all "safer" picks, and risk is not something I want with my high first rounder. I'll give LT a more Faulk-like decline in numbers:220 carries 1034 yards 4.7 average 10 TDs40 catches 320 yards 8.0 average 2 TDs207.4 Total Points, good for 9th in my RB rankings.

Can't help myself, but I have to gloat with my LT projection...

 

[David Yudkin]

Only bumping this because it's so rare that I actually come close these Player Spotlight projections . . .

My LT projection from the PS:

260-1170-12 with 50-400-2

Actual LT totals:

292-1110-11 with 52-426-1

 

[B Will]

props on the prediction. whats he gonna do next year ha. Hes on my team i wanna know if i should trade him or keep him.

i need 2 more years to take my dynasty. Hes paired up w/ slaton. and i also have sproles

 

[mggoilers]

props on the prediction. whats he gonna do next year ha. Hes on my team i wanna know if i should trade him or keep him. i need 2 more years to take my dynasty. Hes paired up w/ slaton. and i also have sproles

You seem to have enough at other positions to carry him for another year, but if I were you...look to add another RB or 2.

 

[Islander]

I think it's helpful to compare LT to the greats of the past decade: Marshall, Priest, and Shaun Alexander. They each had record setting seasons, and saw the inevitable decline in numbers over the following season(s).

Shaun Alexander had 27 rushing TDs in 2005. At the end of that season, he had 1717 career rushes. The following season, the wheels pretty much came off of the wagon, at least in terms of expectations following his career year.

Priest Holmes had 27 rushing TDs in 2003. At the end of that season, he had 1223 career rushes. In 2004, he split time with LJ, and finished with 896 yards and 14 TDs, very respectable numbers, but not #1 material by a longshot. At the end of this season, he had 1615 career rushes. Priest was effectively worthless in fantasy terms after this season.

Marshall Faulk's decline was by far the most gradual. He was the #1 ranked FF player in both 2000 and 2001 (his record setting 26 total TDs came in 2000). At the close of the 2001 season, Marshall had 2155 career rushes. He also had 548 career catches, for a total of 2703 career touches. In 2002, he had 212 carries for 953 yards and 8 rushing TDs, and also 80 catches for 537 yards and 2 more TDs, good for 14th in FF points. After 2002, his career touches were up to 2995. In 2003, he played 11 games, finished 16th in FF scoring, and added another 254 total touches, putting his career touch total up to 3249. In 2004 and 2005, he finished 29th and 53th respectively in FF scoring.

LT has 2365 career rushes, and 458 career receptions, for a total of 2823 career touches. He's been the #1 FF player in the land for the past two seasons. He's missed only ONE game in his 7 year NFL career. There are minor worrying signs that his reign will come to an end soon, the question is, will it be this year?

The trends from Faulk, Holmes and Alexander show that when the RB's day is done, it is done quickly. While not everyone falls off the map and into oblivion as quickly as Shaun Alexander, the drop from the top is significant. LT has more career touches by a mile than Alexander and Holmes did when they saw their drop offs, and slightly more than Faulk when he dropped from #1 to #14.

I am one who HATES trying to "predict" injuries. Fragile Fred Taylor has proved to be a beacon of health in recent years. Brian Westbrook has shown that he can handle 300+ touches in back to back seasons (ok, he did miss one game each year, but overall his health has been great and those who were afraid of him for injury concerns missed out on the #6 and #2 FF RB in the past two seasons, respectively). I do not think that predicting the decline/end of a career is the same, however, especially given the trends from Alexander, Faulk, and Priest. I'm not saying that LT will fall suffer a career ending injury in training camp, but it would DEFY THE ODDS if he continued to put up #1 RB numbers. Is that something you want to bank on from your #1 overall pick? Not me, I would take AP, SJ, Westy, and Addai ahead of him, and possibly Brady and Moss, depending on what scoring system I'm in, as I believe they are all "safer" picks, and risk is not something I want with my high first rounder.

I'll give LT a more Faulk-like decline in numbers:

220 carries 1034 yards 4.7 average 10 TDs

40 catches 320 yards 8.0 average 2 TDs

207.4 Total Points, good for 9th in my RB rankings.

Can't help myself, but I have to gloat with my LT projection...

Making accurate projections is a good thing obviously, but what matters is relative rankings between players, not projections themselves. In this case you made a good projection on LT, but let's look at who you listed above LT:AP, SJ, Westy, Addai, Brady and Moss

Only AP did better than LT in both total points and PPG. SJ and Westy beat LT in PPG but not in total points. No comment on Addai. It would also have been better to own LT than Brady or Moss. You could say Brady's injury affected Brady and Moss, but LT played injured all year too so it would be hard to argue that Brady or Moss were clearly better picks in the first round than LT.

So by some measures, only AP did better than LT out of this group of 7. And AP beat LT by a mild margin, nothing major: 1.4 PPG, RB3 vs RB7 in total points, RB6 vs RB10 in PPG. It's a respectable margin, but it's definitely not big.

My intent is not to bash you here. It's just that predicting a production decline for the #1 player is not like sticking your neck out. Odds are that he will decline. What matters is head to head "picks". If you don't like the #1 guy, who else do you want? In 2008 it would have been better to stick with LT despite projecting a decline, with the exception of AP and even there it was not a season-changing call.

 

[the branded hand]

I'm surprised no one has brought up the absence of Lorenzo Neal in LT2's drop off this year. Sure the O-Line makes holes, but Neal was the one that got him into the next level most of the time. I'm not pointing to this as THE reason, but his ability to break out into the second level has been diminished. He's being met at the line more and looks really frustrated sometimes. Now Tolbert and Hester are fine, but I didn't sense a mean streak in them like Neal had. He loved destroying people and LT2 really knew how to read his moves. We can only hope that one of them will emerge as LT2's premier "personal/personnel blocker".

The absence of Schottenheimer, Cameron, and Houck can't be discounted either. Their game philosophy is gone. IMO, the transition to a new coaching staff happened a few years too early. Their chemistry was altered when they were peaking, not when they were in decline.

That being said, I feel like the Chargers offensive scheme is going to emphasize the passing game this coming season. Rivers is finding his stride and some his receivers are adjusting well. LT2 will see more tossed his way in the flat or as a straight up receiver. His time between the tackles might be productive if someone can spring him for those big gainers we all loved seeing for so many years. However, I see his receptions going up and maybe his touches and yardage staying average. He'll still be a PPR star.

285/1150/12

65/520/3



eta: their schedule at the beginning of last year didn't help his numbers at all. we'll have to wait to see what strength of schedule holds for him this year.