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Player Spotlight: Larry Johnson (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Player Page Link: Larry Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
A lot of people are down on the selection of RBs past the "Top 5". However, if you're drafting late in the mid to late first round... IMO Larry Johnson is a very good pick.

He broke his foot last season, but all indications are he's good to go for this year. He's still got some good miles left in him and KC is still developing a young QB - so KC is going to run him into the ground. They will make him earn every penny of his contract.

330 1400 12 rushing 35 300 3 passing

I would rank him ahead of Portis, MBIII, and possibly even Gore.

 
One of the hardest guys to predict in this upcoming up season. Larry Johnson finishes 2nd two years in a row then plays only 8 games last year and finishes 40. However, even going into last year feelings were that Kansas City's offensive line isn't as dominating as it has been in the past and that Johnson would have a difficult time reaching the numbers he did the previous two seasons.

I still think Johnson can be an oustanding back in this league but he's no longer in the elite category. There isn't a lot to scare you on offense in Kansas City and their offensive line isn't the same as it was a few years back.

1100 yards, 8 td's with 50 receptions for 450 yards and 3 td's

These predictions are for 16 games, something you're always a little nervous expecting from a guy who's had a lot of carries the previous two seasons before he broke down last year. You just don't want to see that become the norm for him, missing time.

 
I don't like guys coming off dreaded Lis Franc injury. I know his camp tried to word his injury like it wasn't the dreaded LisFranc, but there is a reason they were wishy washy about the foot injury for months and no one can convince me he didn't have a LisFranc injury.

I see him playing 5-7 games and then having problems with his foot again.

88 carries/281 yards/1 TD

I wouldn't touch him unless he falls into the 7th/8th round, at that point he's worth the risk.

 
I don't like guys coming off dreaded Lis Franc injury. I know his camp tried to word his injury like it wasn't the dreaded LisFranc, but there is a reason they were wishy washy about the foot injury for months and no one can convince me he didn't have a LisFranc injury.
i can't convince you that there aren't eight-legged mice on Venus either, i guess that means there are eight-legged mice on Venus.
 
I don't like guys coming off dreaded Lis Franc injury. I know his camp tried to word his injury like it wasn't the dreaded LisFranc, but there is a reason they were wishy washy about the foot injury for months and no one can convince me he didn't have a LisFranc injury.I see him playing 5-7 games and then having problems with his foot again.88 carries/281 yards/1 TDI wouldn't touch him unless he falls into the 7th/8th round, at that point he's worth the risk.
LJ did not have a LisFranc injury.
 
I don't like guys coming off dreaded Lis Franc injury. I know his camp tried to word his injury like it wasn't the dreaded LisFranc, but there is a reason they were wishy washy about the foot injury for months and no one can convince me he didn't have a LisFranc injury.I see him playing 5-7 games and then having problems with his foot again.88 carries/281 yards/1 TDI wouldn't touch him unless he falls into the 7th/8th round, at that point he's worth the risk.
Seriously? He's going to average around 3 ypc for 50 yards/game for about 6 games? Seriously? You really think that?Last year he avereaged 3.5ypc for about 70 yards/game for 8 games. I see that as his floor this year. If healthy and plays all 16, I see his ceiling around 4ypc, 330/1320/15
 
Here is what I wrote about LJ in a thread last month. I stand by my assertions:

I think Larry Johnson is one of the most talented backs in the league. He has dealt with a serious declination in the talent of the offense around him over the past 2 years. He has also been overused in the Herm regime and this may or may not raise his perceived injury risk.

These are the things that I think he has going for him this season (in order of importance to his fantasy success):

- He is still an incredible talent

- The KC O-line should be a bit better this season

- The emergence of Bowe and the ever-present threat of Gonzo

- He has had plenty of time to heal

- KC didn't bring in anyone (yet) who is a threat to his PT (I like Charles as a backup, mind you)

I think LJ bounces back big time. I think he presents a tremendous value and has the ability to win a lot of leagues for people drafting in the mid-late 1st round.

My projections for him are:

350 carries for 1505 yards (4.3 avg.) and 12 TDs

35 receptions for 350 yards (10.0 avg) and 2 TDs

 
Here is what I wrote about LJ in a thread last month. I stand by my assertions:I think Larry Johnson is one of the most talented backs in the league. He has dealt with a serious declination in the talent of the offense around him over the past 2 years. He has also been overused in the Herm regime and this may or may not raise his perceived injury risk.These are the things that I think he has going for him this season (in order of importance to his fantasy success):- He is still an incredible talent- The KC O-line should be a bit better this season- The emergence of Bowe and the ever-present threat of Gonzo- He has had plenty of time to heal- KC didn't bring in anyone (yet) who is a threat to his PT (I like Charles as a backup, mind you)I think LJ bounces back big time. I think he presents a tremendous value and has the ability to win a lot of leagues for people drafting in the mid-late 1st round.My projections for him are:350 carries for 1505 yards (4.3 avg.) and 12 TDs35 receptions for 350 yards (10.0 avg) and 2 TDs
:unsure: good stuff !I think you're dead-on! Everyone seems to forget about a guy named Chan Gailey, the Chiefs new OC..he knows quite a bit more about offensive play-calling than Mike Solari did ( last year's OC). This offense will be unpredictable, unlike the system that Solari used last year..If you like SOS, KC plays the 5th easiest schedule vs. run this season. Denver's defense has slipped.Oakland's isn't much better ( good against the pass, not so good against the run), KC can, at times, run the ball on SD, so LJ will always get his numbers from the4 AFC West teams..375/1687/14, 4.5 per carry50/500/2, 5.0 yards per rec..Maybe these numbers I'm predicting are too optimistic, but for a guy who is one of the few remaining RB's not embroiled in a RBBC, I like his chances..and lets not forget Herm Edwards likes to pound his RB's into the ground ( see Curtis Martin)
 
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Here is what I wrote about LJ in a thread last month. I stand by my assertions:I think Larry Johnson is one of the most talented backs in the league. He has dealt with a serious declination in the talent of the offense around him over the past 2 years. He has also been overused in the Herm regime and this may or may not raise his perceived injury risk.These are the things that I think he has going for him this season (in order of importance to his fantasy success):- He is still an incredible talent- The KC O-line should be a bit better this season- The emergence of Bowe and the ever-present threat of Gonzo- He has had plenty of time to heal- KC didn't bring in anyone (yet) who is a threat to his PT (I like Charles as a backup, mind you)I think LJ bounces back big time. I think he presents a tremendous value and has the ability to win a lot of leagues for people drafting in the mid-late 1st round.My projections for him are:350 carries for 1505 yards (4.3 avg.) and 12 TDs35 receptions for 350 yards (10.0 avg) and 2 TDs
:rolleyes: good stuff !I think you're dead-on! Everyone seems to forget about a guy named Chan Gailey, the Chiefs new OC..he knows quite a bit more about offensive play-calling than Mike Solari did ( last year's OC). This offense will be unpredictable, unlike the system that Solari used last year..If you like SOS, KC plays the 5th easiest schedule vs. run this season. Denver's defense has slipped.Oakland's isn't much better ( good against the pass, not so good against the run), KC can, at times, run the ball on SD, so LJ will always get his numbers from the4 AFC West teams..375/1687/14, 4.5 per carry50/500/2, 5.0 yards per rec..Maybe these numbers I'm predicting are too optimistic, but for a guy who is one of the few remaining RB's not embroiled in a RBBC, I like his chances..and lets not forget Herm Edwards likes to pound his RB's into the ground ( see Curtis Martin)
I like the Gailey argument too. He should offer some offensive stability that Herm is, shall we say, not known for.
 
I like him. I hope people get way down on him. He was a top player before the injury, and is still a top player. He was just starting to hit his stride last season.

 
I like him for a bounceback. Their OLine still sucks and I think they try to limit his carries a little with the slight emergence of Kolby Smith. That being said hes still good late 1st rd material. 288 att, 1152 yds, 9 tds, 56 rec, 392 yds, 1 td

 
I like him for a bounceback. Their OLine still sucks and I think they try to limit his carries a little with the slight emergence of Kolby Smith. That being said hes still good late 1st rd material. 288 att, 1152 yds, 9 tds, 56 rec, 392 yds, 1 td
Kolby Smith had a very slight emergence, but I see Jamaal Charles coming in and having an immediate impact. Nst sure it will effect LJ's carries that much, but i think he might snag some of the receptions.
 
I don't like guys coming off dreaded Lis Franc injury. I know his camp tried to word his injury like it wasn't the dreaded LisFranc, but there is a reason they were wishy washy about the foot injury for months and no one can convince me he didn't have a LisFranc injury.I see him playing 5-7 games and then having problems with his foot again.88 carries/281 yards/1 TDI wouldn't touch him unless he falls into the 7th/8th round, at that point he's worth the risk.
LJ did not have a LisFranc injury.
We can word it as a broken bone in the mid-foot instead if that makes people more comfortable.His camp basically took the definition of a LisFranc and worded his injury the same way without using the term LisFranc. It was damage control.if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck i think we can all read between the lines.
 
310 carries

1350 yards

13 TD

55 rec.

450 yards

3 TD

Probably the most underrated receiving back in the league. He has some Adrian Peterson in him if he can catch the screen without getting blown up behind the line of scrimmage.

 
I don't like guys coming off dreaded Lis Franc injury. I know his camp tried to word his injury like it wasn't the dreaded LisFranc, but there is a reason they were wishy washy about the foot injury for months and no one can convince me he didn't have a LisFranc injury.I see him playing 5-7 games and then having problems with his foot again.88 carries/281 yards/1 TDI wouldn't touch him unless he falls into the 7th/8th round, at that point he's worth the risk.
LJ did not have a LisFranc injury.
We can word it as a broken bone in the mid-foot instead if that makes people more comfortable.His camp basically took the definition of a LisFranc and worded his injury the same way without using the term LisFranc. It was damage control.if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck i think we can all read between the lines.
There is a big difference between a LisFranc and a broken bone in the foot. If he had a LisFranc, he would not be running now. He was 100% in OTAs. No way in the world he could do that if he was coming off a LisFranc injury. There is all the quacking you need. :mellow:
 
To those who suggest that he is going to bounce back because he is a talented back, I ask, Is Jim Brown a talented back? Is Barry Sanders? Is Curtis Martin? Is Shaun Alexander? I'm being a little ridiculous, but the point is that lots of backs are talented in their prime, but we wouldn't expect them to put up the same numbers today for any number of reasons, so where on the age continuum do we see this start to decline?

If people were right about the talented back thing, I would submit that we would see lots of past talented backs like Larry Johnson have a bounce back year at age 29, following a serious injury the previous year. Do we? Please find them for me.

For more detail, I'll just re-post my comment in this thread at #47

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=397394

Wow, I clearly need some of what is being passed around in this room. I’m an LJ fan and a Chiefs fan, but wow. I hope these projections come true, it means the Chiefs are a heck of a lot better than I think they are in 2008. AFC Championship Game, here we come!

My first question is, when people are making a projection, is that supposed to represent the average, the best case scenario, the totals assuming a player plays all 16 games? Because to me, it doesn't seem like people are regressing predictions based on average outcome at all.

I added up the projections that are listed. Of the 7 that list a rush attempt total (or adopt someone elses by reference), 5 project at least 325 rush attempts. 7 of the 13 project 1500 or more total yards, 7 of the 13 project 11 or more total td's. The average projected FP total is 204.7.

Q: How many running backs have rushed the ball at least 325 times in a single season at age 29 (Johnson's age in 2008), in the history of the league?

A: Three. Eddie George (343), James Stewart (339), and Barry Sanders (335). A total of fourteen have rushed the ball at least 300 times in a season at age 29 (E. James, C. White, T. Barber, E. Smith, R. Watters, S. Davis, W. Payton, E. Dickerson, P. Holmes, T. Jones, A. Johnson).

What did these 14 backs have in common? Some were established stars, some came out of nowhere to get an opportunity. First, they were mostly healthy the year before. 11 of the 14 played in every game at age 28, Anthony Johnson played in 15 the year before, James Stewart in 14, and Stephen Davis in 12. Average games played at age 28=15.5. Second, they played on mostly decent to good teams. Only Tiki Barber, Charles White, and Thomas Jones played on teams with losing records at age 29.

I'm not going to say something can't happen. If you have played fantasy football long enough, you've seen just about everything. But I sure don't expect these numbers out of LJ in 2008 for any number of reasons. Too many things have to go right.

Could LJ be completely healed and have no lingering effects from a broken foot, the type of injury that has effectively ended some careers? Maybe, but we sure don't know yet, and I don't like a foot injury on a big back on the wrong side of the running back age curve.

Could LJ return to the form he showed at age 26 and 27? Probably not, at least based on history, but okay, within the realm of possibility.

Could the offensive line return to the form from 2002-2005, when Roaf was at LT and Shields at RG? NO. It probably should be a little better than last year, but will be incorporated rookies and new players and trying to piece something together.

Might Brodie Croyle be the next big QB breakout star, thus moving the offense into position for LJ to score all these short TD runs people are projecting? Possible. I don't see it, but within the realm of possibility.

Might the Chiefs pass D be improved, and able to hold the leads that the breakout star Croyle builds in the first half? Jared Allen is gone. That spot will be manned by someone who played DT last year. This is certainly possible. I like the chances in 2009 more than 2008, but okay.

Might Dorothy pull back the curtain, revealing the Wizard, try to get back to Kansas in a hot air balloon that floats away without her, then tap her heels together and return to Kansas? Yes.

Basically, all/most of these things are going to have to happen for LJ to reach the average projection on this board so far. Banger doesn't see "many gushing over him . . . most seem to be reasonable projections." I see people expecting one of the best RB seasons at age 29 this side of Priest Holmes 2002, and I don't think that's reasonable. LJ has to be healthy and back to form coming off a broken foot already preceded by a noticeable drop in performance, has to be playing behind a much improved offensive line, supported by dramatically better QB play so that drives are sustained and red zone opps are there, and bolstered by a solid pass defense to help hold a lead and give more 2nd half rush opportunities, on a team that is contending for the AFC West and a playoff spot, in order to sniff these numbers. Too many ifs/ands/or buts for me. Low end RB2 that will cost you RB1 price. Given what I am seeing here, highly doubtful he is on any team I participate with in 2008.

My projection (and this is intended as a median projection):

13 GP, 230 rush att., 870 rush yards, 3.8 ypc, 20 rec, 130 rec yds, 7 total td's. 142 Fant. Pts. 10.9 FP/G (non-PPR, standard).
and make that 6 rush td and 1 rec td for this thread's purposes.
 
To those who suggest that he is going to bounce back because he is a talented back, I ask, Is Jim Brown a talented back? Is Barry Sanders? Is Curtis Martin? Is Shaun Alexander? I'm being a little ridiculous, but the point is that lots of backs are talented in their prime, but we wouldn't expect them to put up the same numbers today for any number of reasons, so where on the age continuum do we see this start to decline?

If people were right about the talented back thing, I would submit that we would see lots of past talented backs like Larry Johnson have a bounce back year at age 29, following a serious injury the previous year. Do we? Please find them for me.
Well, for starters, Priest Holmes did it for your very own team a few years ago. Coming off a serious injury (that a lot of people were calling "Bo Jackson-like") and at age 29-30 IIRC he posted 1400 and 27.And, I am not sure I understand what you mean by "past talented." Do you mean that LJ was once talented, and no longer is because of the injury or his age? If this is the case, then I disagree wholeheartedly.

Last year, Johnson was just hitting his stride when he got injured. If he had been injured later in the season, after compiling a decent amount of stats (like the Padre did), I wonder if people would be writing him off as having lost his mojo.

 
To those who suggest that he is going to bounce back because he is a talented back, I ask, Is Jim Brown a talented back? Is Barry Sanders? Is Curtis Martin? Is Shaun Alexander? I'm being a little ridiculous, but the point is that lots of backs are talented in their prime, but we wouldn't expect them to put up the same numbers today for any number of reasons, so where on the age continuum do we see this start to decline?

If people were right about the talented back thing, I would submit that we would see lots of past talented backs like Larry Johnson have a bounce back year at age 29, following a serious injury the previous year. Do we? Please find them for me.
Well, for starters, Priest Holmes did it for your very own team a few years ago. Coming off a serious injury (that a lot of people were calling "Bo Jackson-like") and at age 29-30 IIRC he posted 1400 and 27.And, I am not sure I understand what you mean by "past talented." Do you mean that LJ was once talented, and no longer is because of the injury or his age? If this is the case, then I disagree wholeheartedly.

Last year, Johnson was just hitting his stride when he got injured. If he had been injured later in the season, after compiling a decent amount of stats (like the Padre did), I wonder if people would be writing him off as having lost his mojo.
I apologize for my impreciseness. "Lots of past talented backs like Larry Johnson" meant lots of historical talented backs (William Andrews, Earl Campbell, fill in the blank). Okay, Priest Holmes. He had a great year in 2003, coming off the hip injury at the end of 2002, probably the leading example of an older back returning from injury and having a great year. I'll disagree that LJ was "hitting his stride" and I've watched every carry in his career. But setting that aside, is Holmes' 2003 season a good aiming point for LJ (versus all the other 29 year old or older seasons in the history of the league). The Chiefs were 13-3 and one of the top offenses in the league in 2003, after being one of the top offenses in the league in 2002. They had perhaps the best offensive line that season.

Do you think the Chiefs in 2008 will have one of the best offensive lines, and one of the most explosive offenses in the league? I sure don't.

Some others who bounced back from injury to have decent seasons later in their careers, even if not all top 10 like LJ's current asking price, include Ahman Green and McAllister from 2006, and Dorsey Levens in 1999. Jamal Anderson's 2000 season was a bounce back of sorts, and probably more in line with what people should hope for in a good case scenario, on a similarly rebuilding offense starting rookies.

 
A lot of folks have LJ pegged for another 300 fantasy point season at 29 years old in a bounce back season after an injury. I have no molded opinion yet on Johnson, but there have only been a dozen seasons when a 29 year old (or older) socred 250 points in a season:

1 Priest Holmes 2003 30 373.00

2 Priest Holmes 2002 29 372.70

3 Barry Sanders 1997 29 319.80

4 Tiki Barber 2005 30 305.00

5 Tiki Barber 2004 29 299.60

6 John Riggins 1983 34 281.60

7 Curtis Martin 2004 31 278.20

8 Walter Payton 1984 30 271.20

9 Walter Payton 1985 31 269.40

10 Charlie Garner 2002 30 256.30

11 Corey Dillon 2004 30 251.80

12 Walter Payton 1983 29 250.80

That being said, the same holds true for LT and Westbrook this year as well, so the odds are probably good that someone will hit 250 points.

 
Q: How many running backs have rushed the ball at least 325 times in a single season at age 29 (Johnson's age in 2008), in the history of the league?A: Three. Eddie George (343), James Stewart (339), and Barry Sanders (335). A total of fourteen have rushed the ball at least 300 times in a season at age 29 (E. James, C. White, T. Barber, E. Smith, R. Watters, S. Davis, W. Payton, E. Dickerson, P. Holmes, T. Jones, A. Johnson).
I don't know the answer to this, but how many career carries did George, Stewart, and Sanders have at age 29? I am willing to bet that LJ has far fewer carries at the same age, and yes I think that is significant.
 
Q: How many running backs have rushed the ball at least 325 times in a single season at age 29 (Johnson's age in 2008), in the history of the league?A: Three. Eddie George (343), James Stewart (339), and Barry Sanders (335). A total of fourteen have rushed the ball at least 300 times in a season at age 29 (E. James, C. White, T. Barber, E. Smith, R. Watters, S. Davis, W. Payton, E. Dickerson, P. Holmes, T. Jones, A. Johnson).
I don't know the answer to this, but how many career carries did George, Stewart, and Sanders have at age 29? I am willing to bet that LJ has far fewer carries at the same age, and yes I think that is significant.
Sanders 2384George 2078LJ 1050Stewart 765Not sure that tells us much of anything as it is a miniscule sample size. And I have fewer carries than any of those guys . . . but I doubt that me having low mileage would help me much.
 
Q: How many running backs have rushed the ball at least 325 times in a single season at age 29 (Johnson's age in 2008), in the history of the league?A: Three. Eddie George (343), James Stewart (339), and Barry Sanders (335). A total of fourteen have rushed the ball at least 300 times in a season at age 29 (E. James, C. White, T. Barber, E. Smith, R. Watters, S. Davis, W. Payton, E. Dickerson, P. Holmes, T. Jones, A. Johnson).
I don't know the answer to this, but how many career carries did George, Stewart, and Sanders have at age 29? I am willing to bet that LJ has far fewer carries at the same age, and yes I think that is significant.
Age is far more important than career workload, but yes, career workload does play a factor.
 
Q: How many running backs have rushed the ball at least 325 times in a single season at age 29 (Johnson's age in 2008), in the history of the league?A: Three. Eddie George (343), James Stewart (339), and Barry Sanders (335). A total of fourteen have rushed the ball at least 300 times in a season at age 29 (E. James, C. White, T. Barber, E. Smith, R. Watters, S. Davis, W. Payton, E. Dickerson, P. Holmes, T. Jones, A. Johnson).
I don't know the answer to this, but how many career carries did George, Stewart, and Sanders have at age 29? I am willing to bet that LJ has far fewer carries at the same age, and yes I think that is significant.
Sanders 2384George 2078LJ 1050Stewart 765Not sure that tells us much of anything as it is a miniscule sample size. And I have fewer carries than any of those guys . . . but I doubt that me having low mileage would help me much.
You could probly be a 1000 yd rusher behind DEN's o-line.
 
I don't like guys coming off dreaded Lis Franc injury. I know his camp tried to word his injury like it wasn't the dreaded LisFranc, but there is a reason they were wishy washy about the foot injury for months and no one can convince me he didn't have a LisFranc injury.I see him playing 5-7 games and then having problems with his foot again.88 carries/281 yards/1 TDI wouldn't touch him unless he falls into the 7th/8th round, at that point he's worth the risk.
LJ did not have a LisFranc injury.
We can word it as a broken bone in the mid-foot instead if that makes people more comfortable.His camp basically took the definition of a LisFranc and worded his injury the same way without using the term LisFranc. It was damage control.if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck i think we can all read between the lines.
mmm moderated... you do realize that other athletes have come back from Lis Franc injuries, right?Recently Dwight Freeney and Kevin Jones suffered form them, and they are both supposed to be able to play this year. Ty Law had one and fully recovered. Brian Westbrook and Duce Staley both had Lis Francs and recovered. Robert Ferguson, Brian Dawkins, Chad Lewis, and a few OLmen have suffered from it and came back.
 
mmm moderated... you do realize that other athletes have come back from Lis Franc injuries, right?Recently Dwight Freeney and Kevin Jones suffered form them, and they are both supposed to be able to play this year. Ty Law had one and fully recovered. Brian Westbrook and Duce Staley both had Lis Francs and recovered. Robert Ferguson, Brian Dawkins, Chad Lewis, and a few OLmen have suffered from it and came back.
Switz... shhhhhhh. We need more guys like this in FF that latch onto things like "dreaded lis franc" and "madden cover" and "superbowl hangover".How much you want to bet he comes back and tries to convince us that KJ getting tackled awkwardly and injuring his knee was a direct result of the "dreaded lis franc"?
 
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A lot of folks have LJ pegged for another 300 fantasy point season at 29 years old in a bounce back season after an injury. I have no molded opinion yet on Johnson, but there have only been a dozen seasons when a 29 year old (or older) socred 250 points in a season:1 Priest Holmes 2003 30 373.00 2 Priest Holmes 2002 29 372.70 3 Barry Sanders 1997 29 319.80 4 Tiki Barber 2005 30 305.00 5 Tiki Barber 2004 29 299.60 6 John Riggins 1983 34 281.60 7 Curtis Martin 2004 31 278.20 8 Walter Payton 1984 30 271.20 9 Walter Payton 1985 31 269.40 10 Charlie Garner 2002 30 256.30 11 Corey Dillon 2004 30 251.80 12 Walter Payton 1983 29 250.80 That being said, the same holds true for LT and Westbrook this year as well, so the odds are probably good that someone will hit 250 points.
How many games did those guys miss the year before? Holmes had the hip injury and missed the last 2 games of 2002. Dillon missed 3 games at various times in his final season in Cincinnati. Riggins missed 1 game in 1982. All the others played in every game the year before.What about the quality of the teams they were on? The average win total was 10.8 in the year in question. 9 played on playoff teams and 4 on super bowl teams. Only Tiki Barber in 2004 played on a losing team in the same season he scored 250+ fantasy points at age 29 or older.Expand it out to all 29+ year olds that scored 220 or more fantasy points since 1978, and you get 21 total player/seasons, including yet another one by Walter Payton and 2 by Emmitt Smith--clearly those 2000+ rush attempts before age 29 slowed those guys down. The same story, they were mostly healthy, and most played on playoff teams. Dorsey Levens is the one exception, checking in at the bottom of the list with 220.7 fantasy points in 1999, coming off a 1998 season where he missed 9 games early, and returned to play at the end of the previous season.Whether they accomplish it or not, Tomlinson and Westbrook at least fit the profile of the successful 29+ year olds, having been relatively healthy and playing for good offenses on playoff caliber teams. LJ does not. There's another 29+ that potentially fits the profile, Edgerrin James, who has played every game the last two years and plays for a team that has a potentially above average offense, and has rebuilt the offensive line greatly over what they were fielding when he arrived.
 
LJ is finally 100% again and will be making a monster push to make the pro bowl in 2008. He is a student of the game, and has a strong desire to be considered among the games all time greats before he is finished with his career. Since 2007 was a wash for him due to injuries, I think he will bounce back with a great year to prove all his doubters wrong.

335/1476/13 and 31/285/2

ETA: THIS is a link to the article that has me excited for LJs prospects this year. The fact that he wants to be so good combined with his punishing running style tells me he is going to produce for a few more years.

 
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In terms of talent, he's one of the 4 or 5 best backs in the NFL. The quarterback situation is easily one of the worst in the leagues. Luckily he has a very good receiver and tight end to keep defenses from putting 12 in the box. Herm Edwards won't hesitate to run him into the ground--see Curtis Martin. The defense has come a long way, and they'll stay in games. The offense will really be all about him, blending in the pass when they're forced to do so.

Realistically, the situation can't be any worse than it was last year, especially the QB play.

354 Rushes

1487 Yards

12 TDs

38 Receptions

274 Yards

2 TDs

 
How we all feeling about Mr. Larry Johnson as the regular season looms near?

Seemed like an awful lot of optimistic projections for the guy given how horrid the Chiefs have looked in preseason.

Yes, it's preseason. But there has to be some real concern over that offense, no?

I'm staring at LJ with the #12/13 pick, and will likely pass. Just don't have a good feeling about him.

 
How we all feeling about Mr. Larry Johnson as the regular season looms near?Seemed like an awful lot of optimistic projections for the guy given how horrid the Chiefs have looked in preseason.Yes, it's preseason. But there has to be some real concern over that offense, no?I'm staring at LJ with the #12/13 pick, and will likely pass. Just don't have a good feeling about him.
still love him, myself. im one of the only.1300 rush yards400 rec yards35 rec12 total tds
 
I just took him with the 2.02 and was told I took him too early. I like it however.
I would be in a position to take him at 2.01, and am intrigued by the idea, but then I saw the Chiefs play in their Week 3 preseason game and it brought back memories of last season when LJ and the whole Chiefs team just looked awful.Very torn.
 
still has a very easy schedule against pathetic run defenses...
:lol: Yes he's 29 but LJ is probably going to get one of the heaviest workloads out of any RB in the league. KC paid him a huge contract and they are going to get their money's worth. He's one season removed from being the #2 RB overall. He has a cakewalk schedule. I have him ranked as RB#8. Guys like Gore and Lynch have just as many question marks but they are younger and performed better last season so LJ drops a bit. But I don't see Barber, Gore or Lynch getting as many carries as LJ will likely get in 2008. That doesn't necessarily translate into fantasy football success but I think LJ is being vastly underestimated. In PPR scoring, he definitely drops into the second round. But for standard scoring, I think he is a legit late first round pick. He should be a top 5 RB once again if he stays healthy.
 
My concern for Johnson is his production has gone down in the past few years and the Chiefs are not a very good team and have a very unexciting offense overall.

Fantasy Points Per Touch:

2004: 1.020

2005: 0.908

2006: 0.731

2007: 0.527

He'll need a ton of touches to rank in the Top 10 at that rate, and I'm not sure we can count on him getting gobs of TDs like in the past to help him out. He's probably worth where he's getting drafted, but I'm not sure he's a lock Top 5 guy again based solely on his big workload like some folks are suggesting.

 
My concern for Johnson is his production has gone down in the past few years and the Chiefs are not a very good team and have a very unexciting offense overall.Fantasy Points Per Touch:2004: 1.0202005: 0.9082006: 0.7312007: 0.527He'll need a ton of touches to rank in the Top 10 at that rate, and I'm not sure we can count on him getting gobs of TDs like in the past to help him out. He's probably worth where he's getting drafted, but I'm not sure he's a lock Top 5 guy again based solely on his big workload like some folks are suggesting.
DavidFair points, but remember, Chan Gailey is running this offense, NOT Mike Solari..Gailey's offense have never finished worse than 17th in total rushing yards in any season since he's coached in the NFL as an OC..just check the Pitt rushing stats from his time spent there..1994 - 7th in att, 7th in yards, 1st in TD.1995 - 3rd in att, 2nd in yards, 5th in TD1996 - 5th in att, 3rd in yards, 5th in TD1997 - 3rd in att, 1st in yards, 1st in TD2000 ( Miami) - 10th in att, 14th in yards, 6th in TD2001 (Miami) - 17th in att, 17th in yards, 7th in TD..Obviously, his two worst seasons were in Miami, but the TD output still remained very high! thats the thing I'm looking for with LJ; plenty of attempts and yards, but most importantly, loads of TDs...6th easiest schedule will help him achieve that! :ph34r:
 
Eh.

He's an older guy, coming off a fairly significant injury, that is playing for a team that may be one of the worst in the league, behind a line that may BE the worst in the league.

I won't even sip that koolaid as a guy being considered for late first / early second.

280 carries

1064 yards (3.8 pc)

30 catches

210 yards

10 total TDs

 
I'm in the "he's undervalued" corner. Historically LJ isn't injury prone. Yeah, he battled injury last year, but overall he's a pretty tough kid. Barring a serious injury (which can happen to ANY player at any time) he's a great value pick IMO. He'll play through minor injuries for sure.

 
From my earlier prediction I would probably tone down the number of carries and possibly the YPC slightly. Kolby Smith looks very good and then there's Jamaal Charles who should command touches.

The defense is pretty solid. I'm not worried too much about that. 13th last year in spite of the worst offense in the NFL. They tend to let offenses drive on them a bit but ultimately tighten up in the red zone. And then Herm likes to come back with a clock-chewing drive of his own by running LJ. That's another reason why I'll say he only gets 270-280 carries, about 17 or 18 per game.

The offense is young and should get better as the season goes on. Branden Albert hasn't played yet and he will be a marked improvement at LT in the running game. RT Barry Richardson is known for his run-blocking but the Chiefs can't put him in the game because he's not mature enough as a pass-blocker. I'm hoping he gets a shot at some point and he could be a beastly road-grader.

I'll go with a revised prediction of: 270 car., 1110 yards, 9 TD*; 40 rec.**, 300 yards, 2 TD.

* The only part of my original prediction that was probably a little biased as an owner and Chiefs fan. He has upside, but 13 could be a little high until I see how that young OL develops.

** Likely to be out of the game on a lot of third downs based on what I've seen in the preseason. Kolby Smith is a really good all-around back (blocking, receiving especially).

 
My concern for Johnson is his production has gone down in the past few years and the Chiefs are not a very good team and have a very unexciting offense overall.Fantasy Points Per Touch:2004: 1.0202005: 0.9082006: 0.7312007: 0.527He'll need a ton of touches to rank in the Top 10 at that rate, and I'm not sure we can count on him getting gobs of TDs like in the past to help him out. He's probably worth where he's getting drafted, but I'm not sure he's a lock Top 5 guy again based solely on his big workload like some folks are suggesting.
DavidFair points, but remember, Chan Gailey is running this offense, NOT Mike Solari..Gailey's offense have never finished worse than 17th in total rushing yards in any season since he's coached in the NFL as an OC..just check the Pitt rushing stats from his time spent there..1994 - 7th in att, 7th in yards, 1st in TD.1995 - 3rd in att, 2nd in yards, 5th in TD1996 - 5th in att, 3rd in yards, 5th in TD1997 - 3rd in att, 1st in yards, 1st in TD2000 ( Miami) - 10th in att, 14th in yards, 6th in TD2001 (Miami) - 17th in att, 17th in yards, 7th in TD..Obviously, his two worst seasons were in Miami, but the TD output still remained very high! thats the thing I'm looking for with LJ; plenty of attempts and yards, but most importantly, loads of TDs...6th easiest schedule will help him achieve that! :lmao:
I'm not sure those numbers are completely accurate (Dallas was first in rushing touchdowns in 1994, for example), but setting that aside, I trust they are generally accurate and Pittsburgh did end up with high rush yard totals from 1994-1997:1994: Pittsburgh 12-4, lost in AFC Championship Game1995: Pittsburgh 11-5, lost in Super Bowl1996: Pittsburgh 10-6, lost in Conference Semis1997: Pittsburgh 11-5, lost in AFC Championship Game2000: Miami 11-5, lost in Conference Semis2001: Miami 11-5, lost in AFC Wildcard Game2008: Kansas City, ??-??There's a pretty decent correlation between winning and high rush attempts and rush yards (not necessarily causation, but correlation). Those were also some pretty stout defensive teams. So if Kansas City goes about 11-5 and is a contender to reach the conference semis or beyond, then the numbers should be in line with what Gailey's offenses have done in the past. I don't expect that in 2008.
 
I'm very high on Johnson this year.

If you look closely at his season last year you'll see he was on pace to be a top 10 back easily.

His worst games were the first three games which were against the Texans, Bears, and Vikings. Two of those teams are very tough against the run when that's all they have to defend. These were also his first three games after holding out for most of preseason.

Game 4 he rushed for 123 yards and caught 25 against SD

Game 5 he was hurt early in the game after a questionable tackle. He never returned to that game.

Game 6 119 rushing, 23 receiving and a TD

Game 7 112 rushing, 21 receiving and a TD

Game 8 53 rushing, 42 receiving and 2 TDs

As you can see except game 5 he was on his way to a great year. If you take his point total for his eight games multiply it by two he would've finished in the top 10 for RBs. Depending on your scoring system this could be between 6th and 8th place.

This year he has Brandon Alberts, last year he an undersized Kyle Turley playing left tackle.

 

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