Player Spotlight: Larry Johnson (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Player Page Link: Larry Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Pastor]

I like Johnson to have a bounce back year. Not top 10 but could be top 15 and a steal. Even with a new QB, they still only have 1 person to throw too. I think they will be smart and try to get a ground game.

260 carries, 1100 rush, 6 TD's

25 catches, 175 yds, 2 Td's.

 

[Blackjacks]

I have been very anti LJ the last couple of years (came out smelling like roses) but I'm not here to gloat.......alot

I actually think LJ is a great buy low this year. He is currently going 33rd overall and I would love to draft rb,wr and then go LJ in the third.

KC is a team on the right path. They got a got GM a good head coach and a good young qb

I think LJ gets his touches this year and turns in a good fantasy year

350 carries

1300

30 catches

250 yards

10 tds

MY Biggest Sleeper Of The Year

 

[Tanner9919]

he should carry the ball at least 300 times, and at a 4.5 avg, that should be good enough for 1350 yards...double digit TDs ..I worry that Charles will steal receptions..

300/1350/10/25 rec

it's a return to the top 10 for LJ this season.he's as good a buy-low candidate as you'll ever see..

 

[Banger]

Last year was a lost year for LJ and the Chiefs. LJ has been very quiet this offseason and for him that is a very good thing. With the reality of him being cut after speaking out after the season he needs to keep his mouth shut, show up for OTA's and be a good teammate for once....so far so good.

I'm an LJ owner and love his talent but unlike years back his situation is not good at all. The KC line is bad but may be improving, they ran a total of 311 carries by RB's last year and they brought in a new head coach with a pass 1st mentality. IF LJ can tow the line and keep his mouth shut he'll be in line to be the workhorse on the offense...what that means though remains to be seen. I'd probably put the offense around 350 rushes this year and LJ will probably get around 75% of the carries....

275-1100-7

30-240-1

 

[MAC_32]

The definition of high risk/high reward, his talent suggests he could be a stud producer, but his head has kept him off the field before and it could again. I haven't seen where he's being drafted, but if he's falling far enough he's worth the risk, especially in more shallow leagues in which it is easier to replace him if his head gets in the way of his game again.

 

[Banger]

The definition of high risk/high reward, his talent suggests he could be a stud producer, but his head has kept him off the field before and it could again. I haven't seen where he's being drafted, but if he's falling far enough he's worth the risk, especially in more shallow leagues in which it is easier to replace him if his head gets in the way of his game again.

I wouldn't say he's high risk at the 21st or so ranked RB...I'd say moderate risk/high reward...after looking at the game logs and comparing him to other guys that are ranked above him it's clear that even though his team was horrible last year, they barely ran the ball and he had fewer than 200 carries he's much more explosive and has more big play ability than guys like Grant, Lynch, K. Smith....In 193 carries last year LJ had 6 carries for 25+ yards (65, 63, 48, 34, 33, 25) so he still has the explosion and breakawy ability despite a horrible line and fewer carries. Compare that with Grant - 312 carries - 1 20+ yard carries (35), Lynch 251 carries - 2 20+ yard carries (35, 28) and K. Smith - 239 carries - 3 20+ yard carries (26, 26, 25). If a few things break right...Cassell is efficient, the line improves, they can run the ball more and get some more red zone opportunities LJ really has the ability and opportunity to put together a very nice year.

 

[MAC_32]

The definition of high risk/high reward, his talent suggests he could be a stud producer, but his head has kept him off the field before and it could again. I haven't seen where he's being drafted, but if he's falling far enough he's worth the risk, especially in more shallow leagues in which it is easier to replace him if his head gets in the way of his game again.

I wouldn't say he's high risk at the 21st or so ranked RB...I'd say moderate risk/high reward...after looking at the game logs and comparing him to other guys that are ranked above him it's clear that even though his team was horrible last year, they barely ran the ball and he had fewer than 200 carries he's much more explosive and has more big play ability than guys like Grant, Lynch, K. Smith....In 193 carries last year LJ had 6 carries for 25+ yards (65, 63, 48, 34, 33, 25) so he still has the explosion and breakawy ability despite a horrible line and fewer carries. Compare that with Grant - 312 carries - 1 20+ yard carries (35), Lynch 251 carries - 2 20+ yard carries (35, 28) and K. Smith - 239 carries - 3 20+ yard carries (26, 26, 25). If a few things break right...Cassell is efficient, the line improves, they can run the ball more and get some more red zone opportunities LJ really has the ability and opportunity to put together a very nice year.

The 21st RB off the board is usually a 3rd and at the latest a 4th round pick. You think the risk of 2008 redux isn't high risk at that price? the same area of the draft in which you could get guys like Greg Jennings, Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson, etc. last season? It's not like LJ suffered an injury, he didn't produce to his potential because his off the field ineptitude kept him off of it. He has RB1 potential, same probably can't be said for the other guys you mentioned, but there's a reason he falls as far as those guys, it doesn't get much more volatile than him.

 

[Banger]

The definition of high risk/high reward, his talent suggests he could be a stud producer, but his head has kept him off the field before and it could again. I haven't seen where he's being drafted, but if he's falling far enough he's worth the risk, especially in more shallow leagues in which it is easier to replace him if his head gets in the way of his game again.

I wouldn't say he's high risk at the 21st or so ranked RB...I'd say moderate risk/high reward...after looking at the game logs and comparing him to other guys that are ranked above him it's clear that even though his team was horrible last year, they barely ran the ball and he had fewer than 200 carries he's much more explosive and has more big play ability than guys like Grant, Lynch, K. Smith....In 193 carries last year LJ had 6 carries for 25+ yards (65, 63, 48, 34, 33, 25) so he still has the explosion and breakawy ability despite a horrible line and fewer carries. Compare that with Grant - 312 carries - 1 20+ yard carries (35), Lynch 251 carries - 2 20+ yard carries (35, 28) and K. Smith - 239 carries - 3 20+ yard carries (26, 26, 25). If a few things break right...Cassell is efficient, the line improves, they can run the ball more and get some more red zone opportunities LJ really has the ability and opportunity to put together a very nice year.

The 21st RB off the board is usually a 3rd and at the latest a 4th round pick. You think the risk of 2008 redux isn't high risk at that price? the same area of the draft in which you could get guys like Greg Jennings, Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson, etc. last season? It's not like LJ suffered an injury, he didn't produce to his potential because his off the field ineptitude kept him off of it. He has RB1 potential, same probably can't be said for the other guys you mentioned, but there's a reason he falls as far as those guys, it doesn't get much more volatile than him.

When I think of high risk I think of a high price...a 1st/2nd rounder is high risk...mid 3rd or 4th is moderate risk IMO. You can overcome a missed 3rd rounder, a missed 1st rounder not so much that's all my point was. Yes, I agree that he's got additional risk factors (headcase/off the field legal issues) that many others don't have to deal with.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The definition of high risk/high reward, his talent suggests he could be a stud producer, but his head has kept him off the field before and it could again. I haven't seen where he's being drafted, but if he's falling far enough he's worth the risk, especially in more shallow leagues in which it is easier to replace him if his head gets in the way of his game again.

I wouldn't say he's high risk at the 21st or so ranked RB...I'd say moderate risk/high reward...after looking at the game logs and comparing him to other guys that are ranked above him it's clear that even though his team was horrible last year, they barely ran the ball and he had fewer than 200 carries he's much more explosive and has more big play ability than guys like Grant, Lynch, K. Smith....In 193 carries last year LJ had 6 carries for 25+ yards (65, 63, 48, 34, 33, 25) so he still has the explosion and breakawy ability despite a horrible line and fewer carries. Compare that with Grant - 312 carries - 1 20+ yard carries (35), Lynch 251 carries - 2 20+ yard carries (35, 28) and K. Smith - 239 carries - 3 20+ yard carries (26, 26, 25). If a few things break right...Cassell is efficient, the line improves, they can run the ball more and get some more red zone opportunities LJ really has the ability and opportunity to put together a very nice year.

The 21st RB off the board is usually a 3rd and at the latest a 4th round pick. You think the risk of 2008 redux isn't high risk at that price? the same area of the draft in which you could get guys like Greg Jennings, Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson, etc. last season? It's not like LJ suffered an injury, he didn't produce to his potential because his off the field ineptitude kept him off of it. He has RB1 potential, same probably can't be said for the other guys you mentioned, but there's a reason he falls as far as those guys, it doesn't get much more volatile than him.

I would not say that the late 3rd/early 4th round is a terriblyhigh risk area. You should go back and look at the guys being drafted there the last few years. Sure there are plenty of gems there like the guys you mentioned, but most guys in that area are busts anyway. Really, that area is typically made up of guys just like LJ...risk/reward type players that could be in the top 5 or out of the top 150.

 

[Da Guru]

I think that LJ has 1-2 good season left in him.

I really do not want to reach for LJ but if he is there in the third rd of any of my drafts I will be all over him.

The yards are difficult to predict with LJ but I see no reason he won`t find paydirt at least 12 times. LJ loves the endzone.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Last 2 years he's been a broken down bust back on a bad team. I'm supposed to expect different this time around? No sir. It's over for Larry Johnson. He had a good run a long time ago but he's finished.

 

[David Yudkin]

Last 2 years he's been a broken down bust back on a bad team. I'm supposed to expect different this time around? No sir. It's over for Larry Johnson. He had a good run a long time ago but he's finished.

Looking ONLY at his past two seasons as a "bust," Johnson averaged 11.5 fantasy ppg in 0 PPR leagues. He was a bust because he didn't play every week. But assuming that he did not improve at all and still averaged 111.2 ppg over a 16-game season that would net him 184 fantasy points.Last year, that would have ranked him 16th. His ADP is currently RB26. And that's assuming he doesn't play any better. Clearly he needs to play every week to rank that high . . .

 

[MAC_32]

The definition of high risk/high reward, his talent suggests he could be a stud producer, but his head has kept him off the field before and it could again. I haven't seen where he's being drafted, but if he's falling far enough he's worth the risk, especially in more shallow leagues in which it is easier to replace him if his head gets in the way of his game again.

I wouldn't say he's high risk at the 21st or so ranked RB...I'd say moderate risk/high reward...after looking at the game logs and comparing him to other guys that are ranked above him it's clear that even though his team was horrible last year, they barely ran the ball and he had fewer than 200 carries he's much more explosive and has more big play ability than guys like Grant, Lynch, K. Smith....In 193 carries last year LJ had 6 carries for 25+ yards (65, 63, 48, 34, 33, 25) so he still has the explosion and breakawy ability despite a horrible line and fewer carries. Compare that with Grant - 312 carries - 1 20+ yard carries (35), Lynch 251 carries - 2 20+ yard carries (35, 28) and K. Smith - 239 carries - 3 20+ yard carries (26, 26, 25). If a few things break right...Cassell is efficient, the line improves, they can run the ball more and get some more red zone opportunities LJ really has the ability and opportunity to put together a very nice year.

The 21st RB off the board is usually a 3rd and at the latest a 4th round pick. You think the risk of 2008 redux isn't high risk at that price? the same area of the draft in which you could get guys like Greg Jennings, Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson, etc. last season? It's not like LJ suffered an injury, he didn't produce to his potential because his off the field ineptitude kept him off of it. He has RB1 potential, same probably can't be said for the other guys you mentioned, but there's a reason he falls as far as those guys, it doesn't get much more volatile than him.

I would not say that the late 3rd/early 4th round is a terriblyhigh risk area. You should go back and look at the guys being drafted there the last few years. Sure there are plenty of gems there like the guys you mentioned, but most guys in that area are busts anyway. Really, that area is typically made up of guys just like LJ...risk/reward type players that could be in the top 5 or out of the top 150.

I prefer to save my volatile risks until later, at that point in the draft good risks should still available (Pierre Thomas, Kevin Smith, TO, Vincent Jackson, etc.), no need to take borderline reckless ones so soon.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I really think Johnson is one of the biggest sleepers in all of FF in 2009. While projecting what his role will be in the spread offense of Todd Haley and Chan Gailey, here is the Chiefs depth chart at RB currently.

Larry Johnson

Jamaal Charles

Kolby Smith

Jackie Battle

Charles was a rookie in 2008. Smith is coming off a ruptured patella tendon in his knee and prior to that had a career YPC of 3.4 and Battle has largely been a practice squad player during his two seasons in the NFL. Johnson certainly isn't an endearing personality, but he is by far the best option on that team to give carries to...bell cow carries.

Let's also realize that he was not hurt last season. He missed time because of his off field transgressions and while the spector of that still remains, it does appear Johnson has laid low since and is making an effort to continue to do so. Johnson has been his own worst enemy and you probably have to be reading tea leaves a bit to make a determination as to whether his recent good behavior is here to stay or not. What Johnson does realize though is:

1) He'll be 30 this season (in November). Even though by comparison, his career workload has been relatively light (1269 carries)...he's got to know that the clock is ticking. He's already gotten his big contract, but unless he wants to be one of those guys who never sees the big money in it (and chances aren't great that he does even if he does perform) then he needs to toe the line.

2) Early in the off-season he demanded a trade and in short, the tumbleweed that the NFL's response replied with was deafening. That has to catch your attention in terms of "I better make this work" and since these people know nothing about me, I better make a solid impression.

One more thing to point out. Matt Cassel for as nice of a season as he put up last year, is still a guy with a 1-year track record which was also built with the help of Randy Moss and Wes Welker, not to mention the rest of the core of the Patriots organization that stands as one of the best in professional sports. Dwayne Bowe is a nice talent, but he's not Moss and the Chiefs are building this thing from the ground up. I think the Chiefs would be wise to slowly place the franchise on Cassel's shoulders rather than crash course it. Johnson can be the bridge of having the bulk of the offensive responibility on his shoulders while Cassel grows into the franchise QB role.

As such, even with the spread attack, I see Johnson getting alot of work, although I think his first half will be better than his second half.

Prediction: 304 Carries, 1328 Yards, 10 TD's, 15 Receptions 98 Receiving Yards, 0 TD's.

 

[rzrback77]

Not a real need for me to post as several others (all but one really) have been pounding the Larry Johnson is a value pick in 09 drum. I see a very good 09 for LJ as I just don't think that KC has a viable option to him. I also think that his opportunities to score TDs jumps up as KC will be improved on offense and Gonzo is gone.

Larry Johnson 300 carries 1380 yards 4.6 ypc 30 catches 180 yards 6.0 ypc 12 TDs

 

[Balance]

Last 2 years he's been a broken down bust back on a bad team. I'm supposed to expect different this time around? No sir. It's over for Larry Johnson. He had a good run a long time ago but he's finished.

I'm not real sure what you are looking at when you say this.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I guess I am really missing the boat with LJo. I just do not see him as a value pick unless he slips to round 6 or later. When I look at LJo I see:

1. a RB that has missed a total of 12 in past two season, making him an injury risk;

2. A player not capable of making plays on his own. LJo rushed for a total of 559 yards with a 3.5 ypc average last season;

3. A player on a team that has done very little to improve their OLine this off season.

4. A player who faces some extremely good rush defenses this coming season. First 12 weeks the Chiefs face:

WK1: @BAL

WK2: OAK

WK3: @PHI

WK4: NYG

WK5: DAL

WK6: @WAS

WK7: SDC

WK8: BYE

WK9: @JAC

WK10: @OAK

WK11: PIT

WK12: @SDC

Of the first 12 weeks I see 3 matchups where LJo has a chance to produce. I think those seeing value in LJo this season are going to be sorely disappointed. I will pass at his current ADP.

Projections: 240 ATT / 864 YDS / 5 TDs 26 REC / 161 YDs / 1 TD

 

[moderated]

I guess I am really missing the boat with LJo. I just do not see him as a value pick unless he slips to round 6 or later. When I look at LJo I see: 1. a RB that has missed a total of 12 in past two season, making him an injury risk; 2. A player not capable of making plays on his own. LJo rushed for a total of 559 yards with a 3.5 ypc average last season; 3. A player on a team that has done very little to improve their OLine this off season.4. A player who faces some extremely good rush defenses this coming season. First 12 weeks the Chiefs face:

I don't like LJ much but this post is filled with inaccuracies.1)LJ didn't miss any games due to injury last season, it was due to suspension. All his missed games due to injury were in 2007.2)Last season LJ ran for 874 yards and 4.5 YPC3)While the O-line may have not gotten huge improvements they improved the overall offense as they upgraded a ton at QB4)this is your only point that i guess could be construed as accurate, the rest of your points were just completely false and mis-leading.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Sorry, my bad. I was quoting the stats from 2007. Damn dyslexia!

I still see a RB playing behind a very suspect OLine and a brutal schedule. I stand pat with my projections.

 

[Biabreakable]

If KC does throw the ball more often this season. Which based on their defense, I think they may be forced to do. Then I think LJ has upside to catch more than 30. He has been a good reciever at times in his career.

So I think he can still thrive under that scenario even if he does not get as many rushing attempts.

If the KC defense makes a dramatic improvement, which I also think is possible. They have some good players already in place. It is mainly up to the LB. In any case that would help LJ get more action overall.

Some may think Jamal Charles gets a bigger role in the offense. I am not really sure about that. I think LJ is a lot better player. But Charles does hurt LJ's targets I guess.

LJ will turn 30 years old in November.

He came into the league as a somewhat older rookie and didn't get much action behind Priest Holmes. So if your down on Portis for workload you should be high on LJ.

2008 12GS 12GP 193 carries 874yd 4.5ypc 5TD 12 catch 74yd 6.2 0TD 5fum 1 lost

2007 8GS 8GP 158 carries 559yd 3.5 54 3 30 186yd 6.2 1TD 1fum 1 lost

2006 16GS 16GP 416 carries 1,789yd 4.3 47 17 41 410 10.0 2TD 2fum 2 lost

2005 16GS 9GP 336 carries 1,750yd 5.2 49T 20 33 343 10.4 1TD 5fum 4 lost

It looks like if LJ plays in 16 games he will be very busy or at least capable of workhorse numbers if the coaching staff gives him the majority and he performs well enough for that not to change.

The high carries in 2006 and missing half of the following season could be related. Not saying they are but that they could be. I don't expect him to get 400 again in a single season in the rest of his career though.

Now normaly I won't pro rate a players stats but in this case I think it can be somewhat useful. I wouldn't expect there to be lingering effects from the injury 2 years ago and it doesen't look like it affected him last year when he got to play.

So I am throwing 2007 out. He was injured. Then I pro rate 12 games to 16 LJ had 16 carries/game 4.5ypc 72yds/game .416 TD/game one catch/game for 6.2yds = 256 carries 1152yd 7TD 16rec 99yds 0 TD 2fum

But then I would just set that aside. It will be used for a 3 year average and also just for comparison purposes of the final projection.

There is a new coaching staff so really hard to know ultimately how they will run the offense. But there will be changes. Without Gonzo there I think LJ needs to make more plays for them.

I am still not clear on if Jamal Charles will be used in a 3rd down role or instead just be a COP. Or possibly one of the other RB like Battle(insert guy you like) may have a role.

The offensive line will be critical because I think this is the main factor in LJs decline over the past 2 years. This may not be resolved yet but LJ was still capable of getting 4.5ypc behind a line that shouldn't be taking a step backward.

So not using 2007 3 year average for LJ (using pro rated games in 2008 4 of them) is 334 carries 1563yds 14.66 TD 30 catches 284yds 1TD

Now obviously that looks high when compared to what LJ did last year and this is not close to the same team as the ones he played with in 2005 and 2006 so I would consider that to be his ceiling or close to it (would be given high side and low side based on possible distribution.)

If your looking for more of a median range expectation then you could use weighted average for the most recent and relevant season. At 50% that would mean 295 carries 1357.5yds 10.83 TD 23 catches 191.5yds .5 TD

Those would be a couple baselines anyways. I would like to look at the coaches past tendincies which I have not gotten around to yet as something else to compare numbers to before doing the team projection.

Which yeah I just now started.

 

[Manster]

LJ's past actions have me a bit worried. turning 30, crappy team, has the money. maybe he implodes??

on the other hand, i can definately see the value/reward potential. his situation will be one to watch as the season nears.

 

[Banger]

A few posts up I noted how many 25+ yard runs LJ had last year (6) on his limited number of carries and I was curious how on a % basis (25+ yard run/# of carries) that would stack up against all the other RB's with 150+ carries. It turns out LJ ranked 5th behind D. Williams (11-4.01%), Peterson (14-3.86%), Jacobs (8-3.65%), Slaton (9-3.36%) and LJ (6-3.11%).

The list in terms of 25+ runs (not on a % basis) is Peterson (14), Williams (11), Slaton (9), Jacobs (8) and LJ (6), 7 tied with 5. So even though LJ had a "low" number of carries and was 5th on a % basis, he also ranked 5th based on the absolute # of carries of 25+ yards plus.

This points out a couple things to me. 1) He still has the explosiveness that made him a top pick a couple years back despite the fact that he's turning 30 or that he was injured 2 years ago. 2) All of those players are 1st round picks while LJ is a mid-3rd rounder.

He certainly has his warts and definitely carries some risk but if the opportunity is there he looks like he could have a very nice year.

 

[Mesmashu]

Some may think Jamal Charles gets a bigger role in the offense. I am not really sure about that. I think LJ is a lot better player. But Charles does hurt LJ's targets I guess.I am still not clear on if Jamal Charles will be used in a 3rd down role or instead just be a COP. Or possibly one of the other RB like Battle(insert guy you like) may have a role.

From RotoWire - Charles has added five pounds of muscle this offseason and expects to get more carries this year, the Chiefs' official site reports. "At least 11 times a game," Charles said. Analysis: Charles had just 67 carries last year, but churned out yards at a 5.3 yards per carry average. He also proved to be a capable receiver out of the backfield, hauling in 27 receptions. Larry Johnson will likely get the majority of the carries, but Charles will rotate in more than he did last season and is just one Johnson injury away from seeing his value skyrocket. Even without an injury, Charles will get enough touches to be worth a late-round pick in most leagues.From TheHuddle - Adam Teicher, of The Kansas City Star, reports Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles worked with the first-team offense during practice Friday, May 22. Analysis: The franchise is certainly not committed to Larry Johnson, and there were talks earlier this offseason that he could be released. At minimum Charles is picking up valuable time with the first team that should enhance what regular season opportunities he might receive in a job share or as the lone feature back should LJ be removed from the picture.All the news so far points to Charles seeing his role increased.

 

[Biabreakable]

Some may think Jamal Charles gets a bigger role in the offense. I am not really sure about that. I think LJ is a lot better player. But Charles does hurt LJ's targets I guess.I am still not clear on if Jamal Charles will be used in a 3rd down role or instead just be a COP. Or possibly one of the other RB like Battle(insert guy you like) may have a role.

From RotoWire - Charles has added five pounds of muscle this offseason and expects to get more carries this year, the Chiefs' official site reports. "At least 11 times a game," Charles said. Analysis: Charles had just 67 carries last year, but churned out yards at a 5.3 yards per carry average. He also proved to be a capable receiver out of the backfield, hauling in 27 receptions. Larry Johnson will likely get the majority of the carries, but Charles will rotate in more than he did last season and is just one Johnson injury away from seeing his value skyrocket. Even without an injury, Charles will get enough touches to be worth a late-round pick in most leagues.From TheHuddle - Adam Teicher, of The Kansas City Star, reports Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles worked with the first-team offense during practice Friday, May 22. Analysis: The franchise is certainly not committed to Larry Johnson, and there were talks earlier this offseason that he could be released. At minimum Charles is picking up valuable time with the first team that should enhance what regular season opportunities he might receive in a job share or as the lone feature back should LJ be removed from the picture.All the news so far points to Charles seeing his role increased.

Yes. Something to be mindful of when doing the team projection. Which I am not finished with yet.I love the spotlights but they come out too early for me.If Charles does have an increased 3rd down role then obviously that will limit the targets for LJ. And if they pass the ball a lot (which I am also kind of expecting) that will limit LJ's action overall.I think this is why a lot of people have him with 30 catches instead of more than that.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

In 2005 and 2006, he averaged over 2100 total yards and 20 TDs. Now, I must say those days are (probably) over, but I think Johnson still has the potential for another year or two of 1500+ total yards and 10+ TDs.

If there was any player over the last two seasons that really needed a change of scenery, it's been LJ. Even though he didn't go anywhere, the changes to the coaching staff and core offensive personnel should provide him a fresh start.

Their is definitely some risk with LJ; he's had two down years, and seems like he's still an emotional time-bomb waiting to explode, but I think the upside definitely warrants a pick at his current ADP.

310 Carries

1302 Yards Rushing

4.2 YPC

11 TDs

35 Receptions

287 Yards Receiving

8.2 YPC

1 TD

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

That schedule of KC's just looks awful for an RB. He's a good player for them to keep as they make over the team, but by the time this is a good offense again, LJ will be gone... probably a decent year-end stat line, but not worth the headache of trying to figure out which weeks you can use him against a strong defense. Do Not Want.

 

[CalBear]

The thing I would worry about the most with LJ is the coaching change. Todd Haley is coming off being the offensive coordinator for Arizona, which ranked #32 in rushing attempts in 2008 (and #25 in 2007), and didn't throw a whole lot to the RBs, either (Hightower led with 34 receptions). He also loses Tony Gonzalez, who was probably the single biggest contributor to the running game with his ability to block and to draw linebackers to him.

Haley didn't use the TE in Arizona. I think KC's off-season, letting Gonzalez go and bringing in the top free-agent QB while doing nothing to address the RB position, indicates that they're trying to replicate Arizona's success. Bowe is a very good WR. They're still lacking a Fitzgerald-level complement, but I see a max of about 400 rushing attempts in KC. Now, in 2007 Arizona had just 405 rushes and Edge got 324 of them, so it's possible LJ will still get a decent workload, but I'm going to project him for under 300 carries, even before considering injury.

On the plus side, the offense should be better than it was, which should give him more TD opportunities. KC had just 9 rushing TDs in 2008, and three of those were Tyler Thigpen's. LJ should get the majority of goal line looks in an improved offense with no Gonzalez.

My projections: 280 carries, 1200 yards, 8 TD. 30 receptions, 200 yards, 1 TD. Good for approximately RB#13

 

[Biabreakable]

I just wanted to add that Gonzalez without a doubt will be missed. How much he will be missed and how that affects LJ remains to be seen.

I am leaning towards that meaning that LJ gets more touches than he would if Gonzalez was there. But more focus from the defense on LJ in response to that.

I am also not sure how Bowe will do as the #1 target. I am still skeptical of his hands. Not saying he isn't good. But I don't think he is as good as Gonzalez.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I'm surprised at the amount of love that LJ is getting here. I see more downside than upside. Last year's middling numbers were heavily padded by one huge game vs a bad Denver defense (28/198/2 TDs). This accounted for 24% of his fantasy production for the year. Take out that one game and he averaged 9 fantasy points per game.

As others have mentioned he has a new QB and OC-as Maurile Tremplay points out it remains to be seen how good a fit LJ will be in a spread type offense-he doesn't have Tony Gonzalez, he's not getting any younger and he's missed a lot of time since his 416 carry season in 2006. Yes I'm aware that his missed games last year were due to suspension but those still count and any further lapses in judgement will result in another suspension.

His current ADP of RB25 isn't completely unreasonable but I'll be staying away. I'll take an elite TE, an available WR or a RB like McFadden, Moreno, Addai, J. Stewart, Ward and probably FWP and Beanie Wells before I take LJ this year.

 

[baconisgood]

I'm surprised at the amount of love that LJ is getting here. I see more downside than upside. Last year's middling numbers were heavily padded by one huge game vs a bad Denver defense (28/198/2 TDs). This accounted for 24% of his fantasy production for the year. Take out that one game and he averaged 9 fantasy points per game.

9 pts/game would put him at ~ RB25 which is exactly where he is being taken. Where is the downside in this guy? An adp of 25 means there is basically only injury risk on his downside.

 

[KellysHeroes]

as the season gets closer, LJ's value is going to go up I think... but for now I have him as a good buy low. Baring any injury he'll get most of the touches in KC w/ a decent amount of Recs 30 to 40ish.

I say about 1300 total / 8 TDs

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I'm surprised at the amount of love that LJ is getting here. I see more downside than upside. Last year's middling numbers were heavily padded by one huge game vs a bad Denver defense (28/198/2 TDs). This accounted for 24% of his fantasy production for the year. Take out that one game and he averaged 9 fantasy points per game.

9 pts/game would put him at ~ RB25 which is exactly where he is being taken. Where is the downside in this guy? An adp of 25 means there is basically only injury risk on his downside.

Yeah as I said RB 25 isn't completely unreasonable but I prefer most of the other available options available there.The downside I see- Clearly past his peak, hitting 30 this year.- I don't know if it was workload or what but he hasn't been healthy and good since 2006- New coach etc who have no ties to him- New offense, new QB, no Tony G. I think they could be worse than last year when they were 28th in the league with only 9 rushing TDs.- A substantially more difficult schedule per Gray's Ultimate SOS-one of the worst in the league and 23% worse than last yearMaybe Sigmund Bloom or David Yudkin or someone can figure out how often a RB who is healthy and/or unproductive during his age 28 & 29 seasons is able to rebound in age 30 and beyond. Terry Allen?

 

[greggorymac]

I really don't understand the Tony Gonzalez argument. In terms of LJ, people are saying TG's departure will hurt his stats because the Defenses will key in on the running game more. Conversely, in many of the Michael Turner threads people are saying TG's addition will hurt MT's value because he will take away some of the goal line scoring opportunities of the RBs.

So which one is it?

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm surprised at the amount of love that LJ is getting here. I see more downside than upside. Last year's middling numbers were heavily padded by one huge game vs a bad Denver defense (28/198/2 TDs). This accounted for 24% of his fantasy production for the year. Take out that one game and he averaged 9 fantasy points per game.

9 pts/game would put him at ~ RB25 which is exactly where he is being taken. Where is the downside in this guy? An adp of 25 means there is basically only injury risk on his downside.

Yeah as I said RB 25 isn't completely unreasonable but I prefer most of the other available options available there.The downside I see- Clearly past his peak, hitting 30 this year.- I don't know if it was workload or what but he hasn't been healthy and good since 2006- New coach etc who have no ties to him- New offense, new QB, no Tony G. I think they could be worse than last year when they were 28th in the league with only 9 rushing TDs.- A substantially more difficult schedule per Gray's Ultimate SOS-one of the worst in the league and 23% worse than last yearMaybe Sigmund Bloom or David Yudkin or someone can figure out how often a RB who is healthy and/or unproductive during his age 28 & 29 seasons is able to rebound in age 30 and beyond. Terry Allen?

I'm not really sure what the paramters of the question are. There have been 79 times when a RB was 30 or older and scored 150 fantasy points.If we define having to "rebound" as someone that scored above 200 fantasy points in a season (pre-30) then dropped below 100 points in a season at any point (LJ dropped to 99 in 2007) and then rebounded to at least 150 points at 30 or later, here are the guys that qualify (since 1970):John RigginsCorey DillonOttis AndersonJames BrooksMike AndersonMarcus AllenGarrison HearstJerome BettisEmmitt SmithFranco Harris (only qualifies due to strike season)Fred TaylorMacarthur LaneJoe WashingtonTerry AllenWendell Tyler

 

[CalBear]

I really don't understand the Tony Gonzalez argument. In terms of LJ, people are saying TG's departure will hurt his stats because the Defenses will key in on the running game more. Conversely, in many of the Michael Turner threads people are saying TG's addition will hurt MT's value because he will take away some of the goal line scoring opportunities of the RBs.So which one is it?

I think Gonzalez leaving is a negative for LJ and a positive for Turner. People will have different opinions about the effect of a change like that.But even with Gonzo gone, I think it's pretty strange to think that KC with Cassel will have a weaker offense than KC with Thigpen. And the "how often has it happened before" argument is meaningless; how often has a guy with Larry Johnson's skill set had two down years at 28 and 29, and then had a new coaching staff and major QB upgrade at age 30, while losing the best TE in history? There's never been an analogous situation, so there's not much meaningful you can learn by looking at the history.

 

[David Yudkin]

I really don't understand the Tony Gonzalez argument. In terms of LJ, people are saying TG's departure will hurt his stats because the Defenses will key in on the running game more. Conversely, in many of the Michael Turner threads people are saying TG's addition will hurt MT's value because he will take away some of the goal line scoring opportunities of the RBs.

So which one is it?

I think Gonzalez leaving is a negative for LJ and a positive for Turner. People will have different opinions about the effect of a change like that.But even with Gonzo gone, I think it's pretty strange to think that KC with Cassel will have a weaker offense than KC with Thigpen. And the "how often has it happened before" argument is meaningless; how often has a guy with Larry Johnson's skill set had two down years at 28 and 29, and then had a new coaching staff and major QB upgrade at age 30, while losing the best TE in history? There's never been an analogous situation, so there's not much meaningful you can learn by looking at the history.

Is Cassel really considered a "major QB upgrade?"

 

[CalBear]

Is Cassel really considered a "major QB upgrade?"

That's open for debate, but I think it's a reasonable statement. Thigpen didn't have Moss and Welker, but Gonzalez and Bowe counted among the league's better 1-2 receiving options last year, and he still went 1-10 and put up passing numbers that were mediocre at best.

 

[David Yudkin]

Is Cassel really considered a "major QB upgrade?"

That's open for debate, but I think it's a reasonable statement. Thigpen didn't have Moss and Welker, but Gonzalez and Bowe counted among the league's better 1-2 receiving options last year, and he still went 1-10 and put up passing numbers that were mediocre at best.

From week 8 on last year, Thigpen ranked as the #2 fantasy QB vs Cassel at #4 (at least in the first league of mine that I checked). I don't happen to think Cassel is an upgrade at all, but I will give him credit for knowing the new system better than Thigpen does.

 

[CalBear]

Is Cassel really considered a "major QB upgrade?"

That's open for debate, but I think it's a reasonable statement. Thigpen didn't have Moss and Welker, but Gonzalez and Bowe counted among the league's better 1-2 receiving options last year, and he still went 1-10 and put up passing numbers that were mediocre at best.

From week 8 on last year, Thigpen ranked as the #2 fantasy QB vs Cassel at #4 (at least in the first league of mine that I checked). I don't happen to think Cassel is an upgrade at all, but I will give him credit for knowing the new system better than Thigpen does.

Nice cherry-picking to include Thigpen's two best games (weeks 8 and 10). How about from week 11 on: 55.3% completions with 10 TDs and 8 INTs, 215 yards per game, and one win against the second-worst team in the league (Oakland). Five of KC's six losses in that time frame were to non-playoff teams. Cassel over that same stretch completed 59.4% of his passes with 14 TDs and 4 INTs for 270 yards per game, and went 5-2, with one of those losses coming to the Super Bowl champs. The yardage per game is understated due to the week 17 weather conditions in Buffalo (Cassel went 6 for 8 for 78 yards). As an NFL QB, Cassel significantly outperformed Thigpen over any reasonable sampling of last year's data.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I'm surprised at the amount of love that LJ is getting here. I see more downside than upside. Last year's middling numbers were heavily padded by one huge game vs a bad Denver defense (28/198/2 TDs). This accounted for 24% of his fantasy production for the year. Take out that one game and he averaged 9 fantasy points per game.

9 pts/game would put him at ~ RB25 which is exactly where he is being taken. Where is the downside in this guy? An adp of 25 means there is basically only injury risk on his downside.

Yeah as I said RB 25 isn't completely unreasonable but I prefer most of the other available options available there.The downside I see- Clearly past his peak, hitting 30 this year.- I don't know if it was workload or what but he hasn't been healthy and good since 2006- New coach etc who have no ties to him- New offense, new QB, no Tony G. I think they could be worse than last year when they were 28th in the league with only 9 rushing TDs.- A substantially more difficult schedule per Gray's Ultimate SOS-one of the worst in the league and 23% worse than last yearMaybe Sigmund Bloom or David Yudkin or someone can figure out how often a RB who is healthy and/or unproductive during his age 28 & 29 seasons is able to rebound in age 30 and beyond. Terry Allen?

I'm not really sure what the paramters of the question are. There have been 79 times when a RB was 30 or older and scored 150 fantasy points.If we define having to "rebound" as someone that scored above 200 fantasy points in a season (pre-30) then dropped below 100 points in a season at any point (LJ dropped to 99 in 2007) and then rebounded to at least 150 points at 30 or later, here are the guys that qualify (since 1970):John RigginsCorey DillonOttis AndersonJames BrooksMike AndersonMarcus AllenGarrison HearstJerome BettisEmmitt SmithFranco Harris (only qualifies due to strike season)Fred TaylorMacarthur LaneJoe WashingtonTerry AllenWendell Tyler

Thanks. Nice work quantifying that given no requirements The only quibble I have is that 150 seems low. Looking at the posts I think that most would be disappointed with basically the same or worse production as last year. The projections I'm seeing are more 175-180 with some 200+.Also if you have the number of RBs who didn't rebound we could get an idea of how likely (percentage) someone in LJ's situation had rebounded in the past.

 

[David Yudkin]

Is Cassel really considered a "major QB upgrade?"

That's open for debate, but I think it's a reasonable statement. Thigpen didn't have Moss and Welker, but Gonzalez and Bowe counted among the league's better 1-2 receiving options last year, and he still went 1-10 and put up passing numbers that were mediocre at best.

From week 8 on last year, Thigpen ranked as the #2 fantasy QB vs Cassel at #4 (at least in the first league of mine that I checked). I don't happen to think Cassel is an upgrade at all, but I will give him credit for knowing the new system better than Thigpen does.

Nice cherry-picking to include Thigpen's two best games (weeks 8 and 10). How about from week 11 on: 55.3% completions with 10 TDs and 8 INTs, 215 yards per game, and one win against the second-worst team in the league (Oakland). Five of KC's six losses in that time frame were to non-playoff teams. Cassel over that same stretch completed 59.4% of his passes with 14 TDs and 4 INTs for 270 yards per game, and went 5-2, with one of those losses coming to the Super Bowl champs. The yardage per game is understated due to the week 17 weather conditions in Buffalo (Cassel went 6 for 8 for 78 yards). As an NFL QB, Cassel significantly outperformed Thigpen over any reasonable sampling of last year's data.

Let's see how well Cassel does without Moss. Welker, multiple Pro Bowl lineman, Belichick, and a team light years better than the Chiefs. Switch Thigpen and Cassel last year and we would be saying Thigpen was way better than Cassel in 2008.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm surprised at the amount of love that LJ is getting here. I see more downside than upside. Last year's middling numbers were heavily padded by one huge game vs a bad Denver defense (28/198/2 TDs). This accounted for 24% of his fantasy production for the year. Take out that one game and he averaged 9 fantasy points per game.

9 pts/game would put him at ~ RB25 which is exactly where he is being taken. Where is the downside in this guy? An adp of 25 means there is basically only injury risk on his downside.

Yeah as I said RB 25 isn't completely unreasonable but I prefer most of the other available options available there.The downside I see- Clearly past his peak, hitting 30 this year.- I don't know if it was workload or what but he hasn't been healthy and good since 2006- New coach etc who have no ties to him- New offense, new QB, no Tony G. I think they could be worse than last year when they were 28th in the league with only 9 rushing TDs.- A substantially more difficult schedule per Gray's Ultimate SOS-one of the worst in the league and 23% worse than last yearMaybe Sigmund Bloom or David Yudkin or someone can figure out how often a RB who is healthy and/or unproductive during his age 28 & 29 seasons is able to rebound in age 30 and beyond. Terry Allen?

I'm not really sure what the paramters of the question are. There have been 79 times when a RB was 30 or older and scored 150 fantasy points.If we define having to "rebound" as someone that scored above 200 fantasy points in a season (pre-30) then dropped below 100 points in a season at any point (LJ dropped to 99 in 2007) and then rebounded to at least 150 points at 30 or later, here are the guys that qualify (since 1970):John RigginsCorey DillonOttis AndersonJames BrooksMike AndersonMarcus AllenGarrison HearstJerome BettisEmmitt SmithFranco Harris (only qualifies due to strike season)Fred TaylorMacarthur LaneJoe WashingtonTerry AllenWendell Tyler

Thanks. Nice work quantifying that given no requirements The only quibble I have is that 150 seems low. Looking at the posts I think that most would be disappointed with basically the same or worse production as last year. The projections I'm seeing are more 175-180 with some 200+.Also if you have the number of RBs who didn't rebound we could get an idea of how likely (percentage) someone in LJ's situation had rebounded in the past.

I picked 150 points because that generally is in the RB 24 range these days. As I pointed out much earlier in this thread, people have been bashing Johnson for not performing at a fantasy worthy level. But his issues have been more off the field related than total boming on the field. He was on pace to rank as the #7 RB in 2007 and at #18 based on his rate of production in 2008.While clearly not Top 2 or 3 like he once was, that's still better than where he's getting drafted.

 

[Banger]

I'm surprised at the amount of love that LJ is getting here. I see more downside than upside. Last year's middling numbers were heavily padded by one huge game vs a bad Denver defense (28/198/2 TDs). This accounted for 24% of his fantasy production for the year. Take out that one game and he averaged 9 fantasy points per game.

9 pts/game would put him at ~ RB25 which is exactly where he is being taken. Where is the downside in this guy? An adp of 25 means there is basically only injury risk on his downside.

Yeah as I said RB 25 isn't completely unreasonable but I prefer most of the other available options available there.The downside I see- Clearly past his peak, hitting 30 this year.- I don't know if it was workload or what but he hasn't been healthy and good since 2006- New coach etc who have no ties to him- New offense, new QB, no Tony G. I think they could be worse than last year when they were 28th in the league with only 9 rushing TDs.- A substantially more difficult schedule per Gray's Ultimate SOS-one of the worst in the league and 23% worse than last yearMaybe Sigmund Bloom or David Yudkin or someone can figure out how often a RB who is healthy and/or unproductive during his age 28 & 29 seasons is able to rebound in age 30 and beyond. Terry Allen?

Did you watch him when he played last year? You have to take every player and every year on a case by case basis. LJ is a very talented back...2 years ago he was injured (but had some nice games) and last year the team imploded and he had discipline problems and saw the bench as a result. In 193 carries last year LJ had 6 carries for 25+ yards (65, 63, 48, 34, 33, 25) so he still has the explosion and breakawy ability despite a horrible line and fewer carries. Despite the few number of carries he still had the 5th most 25+ yard runs of any RB in the league last year. So last year he was 29 and showed the explosion and breakaway ability and now this year he's 30 and the wheels fall off? I don't buy that one bit. If he can stay on the field and be the primary back he can be a nice back.

 

[The Karate Kid]

Do you think Charles is next in line for KC or will always just be a 3rd down RB?

 

[MAC_32]

Do you think Charles is next in line for KC or will always just be a 3rd down RB?

I seem to remember reading some blurbs from the old regime indicating he couldn't handle a full workload. This isn't the same regime, but they also don't have any ties to him either. I'd expect him to be a committee leader if something were to happen to LJ, but not a feature back. I'm no Charles fan, but there really isn't much there as far as competition's concerned so he should get an opportunity if LJ were to miss any time.

 

[sgtrobo]

LJ broke 2k YFS and was up around 20 TDs 3 full seasons ago. Since then, a few things have happened

1) He's been injured in consecutive seasons

2) He lost Willie Roaf, Will Shields, and Tony Richardson

3) He broke 30 years of age

He's long since been done.

205 carries, 799 yards rushing, 7 TDs

13 receptions 88 yards receiving, 1 TD

 

[David Yudkin]

LJ broke 2k YFS and was up around 20 TDs 3 full seasons ago. Since then, a few things have happened1) He's been injured in consecutive seasons2) He lost Willie Roaf, Will Shields, and Tony Richardson3) He broke 30 years of ageHe's long since been done. 205 carries, 799 yards rushing, 7 TDs13 receptions 88 yards receiving, 1 TD

1) Was LJ hurt at all last year? I believe he was suspended and disciplined but not injured.2) Even without all those players, he averaged a 4.5 ypc last year.3) Did he suddenly lose limbs by turning 30? Many backs in recent years have had solid seasons at 30 or older.As for the projection, Johnson averaged 23.5 touches in 2007 and 17.8 touches in 2008. Yet you have him projected at 13 touches a game. Are you suggesting that he misses games or are you predicting the Chiefs use someone else for the difference?As for being "done," Johnson had the 7th highest ypc in the league for backs with at least 200 touches.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I'm surprised at the amount of love that LJ is getting here. I see more downside than upside. Last year's middling numbers were heavily padded by one huge game vs a bad Denver defense (28/198/2 TDs). This accounted for 24% of his fantasy production for the year. Take out that one game and he averaged 9 fantasy points per game.

9 pts/game would put him at ~ RB25 which is exactly where he is being taken. Where is the downside in this guy? An adp of 25 means there is basically only injury risk on his downside.

Yeah as I said RB 25 isn't completely unreasonable but I prefer most of the other available options available there.The downside I see- Clearly past his peak, hitting 30 this year.- I don't know if it was workload or what but he hasn't been healthy and good since 2006- New coach etc who have no ties to him- New offense, new QB, no Tony G. I think they could be worse than last year when they were 28th in the league with only 9 rushing TDs.- A substantially more difficult schedule per Gray's Ultimate SOS-one of the worst in the league and 23% worse than last yearMaybe Sigmund Bloom or David Yudkin or someone can figure out how often a RB who is healthy and/or unproductive during his age 28 & 29 seasons is able to rebound in age 30 and beyond. Terry Allen?

Did you watch him when he played last year? You have to take every player and every year on a case by case basis. LJ is a very talented back...2 years ago he was injured (but had some nice games) and last year the team imploded and he had discipline problems and saw the bench as a result. In 193 carries last year LJ had 6 carries for 25+ yards (65, 63, 48, 34, 33, 25) so he still has the explosion and breakawy ability despite a horrible line and fewer carries. Despite the few number of carries he still had the 5th most 25+ yard runs of any RB in the league last year. So last year he was 29 and showed the explosion and breakaway ability and now this year he's 30 and the wheels fall off? I don't buy that one bit. If he can stay on the field and be the primary back he can be a nice back.

I don't see what watching him last year has to do with those downside points (past prime, not healthy and good in 2 years, new coach/offense/QB, much tougher SOS). But since you asked, I owned him last year so I watched him every week. I didn't see explosion despite the 25 yard runs and the y/c. I remember him getting stuffed a lot. That may be a reflection of the OL more than him, I dunno. Doesn't matter to me because I don't see that changing much this year. Maybe my disappointment in him last year is clouding my judgement but I really don't think so. I think I'm being pretty rational with my reasoning. Maybe not Last year with the long runs and the y/c he had one great game, was suspended-and if he makes another mistake he'll be suspended again or cut-and otherwise wasn't worth starting in my leagues.You guys see opportunity based on y/c and 6 good runs combined with past dominance. I see it differently. I see someone who a few years ago had 2 awesome years in a near-perfect situation and otherwise hasn't done a whole lot and probably hasn't justified his draft position. I also see all of the other stuff I pointed out above.I also went so far as to say that his current ADP isn't outrageous-repeatedly actually-but that I prefer the other options.

 

[Birdie048]

I see him as a good low buy with high potential. If the price is right, he is worth the cost. An early 4th round pick in a 12 team league would be OK value, but anything later would be very good value. He has his head straight this year since he lost his arbitration hearing ($3M?) and the Chiefs did not have to pay him his "guarnteed" salary bonus since his suspension violated the contract.

He wants to stay in KC. He wants to get paid. He wants to prove he still has "it" meaning he can still get a good paycheck in the league. He knows his time is running out. Where else can he collect this kind of $$ for running the football.

I believe the whole "NEW REGIME" in KC will give him a chance to earn the job and the $$ he desires.

I see him getting 18-20 carries a game (and he will miss all or part of 1 game).

This will equate to 275 carries for 1200 yards with 16 TD's. Add 15 rec for 135 yards (0 TD).

He is the best Red Zone Weapon they have now that Tony G is in ATL.

Top 10 Value if all the chips fall his way. Yeah, I know that's a heavy TD prediction. But who do you think will get them on that offense? Bowe will see 2x & 3x coverage in the Red Zone. Charles has stick legs and can not push a pile.