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Player Spotlight: Matt Forte (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

Player Page Link: Matt Forte Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
I would expect to see a lot of the same from lat year. The carries and receptions might go down a little, but a bona-fide passing game should lead to a higher yards per carry.

300 Carries

1260 Yards Rushing

4.2 YPC

9 TDs

50 Receptions

400 Yards Receiving

8.0 YPR

2 TDs

Oddly, these numbers came out very similiar to what I projected for Larry Johnson earlier. Less of a risk with Forte though.

 
IMO...the receptions will go down as Cutler will not rely on the dump off quite as much.

THough, this also is relying on the WRs to step up and get open more often for Cutler.

1250 yards rushing 4 ypc

8 TDs

40 receptions

350 yards

2 TDs

 
I'm just not that big on Forte this year. I like his situation, love his line, lack of depth at rb and oppurtunity to touch the ball alot.

I just see a sophmore slump this year for Forte and I see Cutler getting alot more int's than the Bear's qb spot did last year. I also see Cutler passing for more td's and longer completitions that will take up some of the "moving th chains" touches that Forte got last year.

I still think Forte will be descent

275 catches

1100 yards

7 td's

48 catches

320 yards

1 td

 
The key formula for fantasy success involves talent and opportunity. In 08, Matt Forte was the poster boy for opportunity and he combined that with solid receiving success. Otherwise, he was really ordinary, averaging a meager 3.9 ypc. There are theories that Cutler is so much better than Orton that he alone will raise the overall Bear offense. I am not so sure that Cutler will be much better than Orton as he is learning a new team and his WRs appear to be the same as Orton had last year.

Personally I think that the Bears offense will disappoint from the expectations based on Cutler's arm. I also am concerned about the number of carries that Forte had last year resulting in tired legs earlier in the season if he maintains that same pace. Lastly, he has that current ADP of RB 4 and 4th overall. He must maintain his touches or increase his production to produce equal to the expectations of RB4. That is the decision point for me and I will likely pass.

Matt Forte 280 carries 1120 yards 4.0 ypc 45 catches 315 yards 7.0 ypc and 8 TDs

 
I don't know why people don't think Forte will be good this year. First, top 5 RB last year isn't saying that much. It was a down year for running backs. 2nd, his offense is going to be significantly better. Their offensive line is better, and their qb is better.

Every time a running back has a "great" year, it is because his offense is really good, yet an improvement to the bears is going to hurt Forte????

Even if he carries a smaller percentage of plays, there will be more offensive plays in total. If the defense stinks, it could hurt him, but I think it is more because they will get fewer plays and worse field position (so fewer TDs) than because they switch to throwing the ball.

Now, if you don't think Cutler is a big enough improvement or that the defense is going to stink or Oline will stink, fine. But to argue that the offense is going to score a lot more and that is somehow going to hurt Forte is backwards. If the team scores 15 more TDs this year than last, I can tell you with near 100% certainty that Forte's fantasy stats will be better than last year.

Oh, projections....

320 carries

1400 yards

16 tds

60 rec

400 yds

6 tds

 
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I don't know why people don't think Forte will be good this year. First, top 5 RB last year isn't saying that much. It was a down year for running backs. 2nd, his offense is going to be significantly better. Their offensive line is better, and their qb is better.

Every time a running back has a "great" year, it is because his offense is really good, yet an improvement to the bears is going to hurt Forte????

Even if he carries a smaller percentage of plays, there will be more offensive plays in total. If the defense stinks, it could hurt him, but I think it is more because they will get fewer plays and worse field position (so fewer TDs) than because they switch to throwing the ball.

Now, if you don't think Cutler is a big enough improvement or that the defense is going to stink or Oline will stink, fine. But to argue that the offense is going to score a lot more and that is somehow going to hurt Forte is backwards. If the team scores 15 more TDs this year than last, I can tell you with near 100% certainty that Forte's fantasy stats will be better than last year.

Oh, projections....

320 carries

1400 yards

16 tds - Started to loose me here....

60 rec

400 yds

6 tds - Really lost me here.
 
I think what gives me pause about Forte is the receptions angle. Sure, he caught 63 passes as a rookie but I think people are falling prey to the fallacy of ever-increasing production here. He caught those 63 receptions playing with a QB that is nicknamed Captain Check Down in some circles. Orton LOVED to dump off to Forte because he couldn't/wouldn't throw downfield. Cutler, for better or worse, very much will be throwing downfield. I think Forte still has a big role in the receiving game, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he went for 40 catches instead of 60.

 
I think what gives me pause about Forte is the receptions angle. Sure, he caught 63 passes as a rookie but I think people are falling prey to the fallacy of ever-increasing production here. He caught those 63 receptions playing with a QB that is nicknamed Captain Check Down in some circles. Orton LOVED to dump off to Forte because he couldn't/wouldn't throw downfield. Cutler, for better or worse, very much will be throwing downfield. I think Forte still has a big role in the receiving game, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he went for 40 catches instead of 60.
Jason,I don't have any projections to roll out but as a Forte owner I can accept fewer receptions if that translatesinto more red zone/goal line touches. I understand that doesn't help most owners in PPR leagues but is it possiblethat the opportunity to convert drives into some end zone gold for Forte offset those losses?
 
I think what gives me pause about Forte is the receptions angle. Sure, he caught 63 passes as a rookie but I think people are falling prey to the fallacy of ever-increasing production here. He caught those 63 receptions playing with a QB that is nicknamed Captain Check Down in some circles. Orton LOVED to dump off to Forte because he couldn't/wouldn't throw downfield. Cutler, for better or worse, very much will be throwing downfield. I think Forte still has a big role in the receiving game, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he went for 40 catches instead of 60.
Jason,I don't have any projections to roll out but as a Forte owner I can accept fewer receptions if that translatesinto more red zone/goal line touches. I understand that doesn't help most owners in PPR leagues but is it possiblethat the opportunity to convert drives into some end zone gold for Forte offset those losses?
I think it's a reasonable counterpoint. I have Forte with 10 TDs, so I'm certainly not down on him. I just think he's a tad overvalued in PPR leagues in particular, because people are assuming a ton of catches.
 
Sho nuff...

I'm not joking, although I'm not necessarily 100% serious either (made the TD numbers really high on purpose). I was making a point that it makes little sense to me that people would assume (as you did) that forte will score fewer TDs this year than last. Last year he had 12 total TDs 8 & 4. You have him scoring 10 this year??? A more real guess for me is that he scores 15-17 TD or something this year total, I read after the fact that we were supposed to put in a "projection" that they were going to average so I threw that in.

Last year with a team that was playing from behind a lot, Cutler threw 25 TD passes to Orton's 18 (plus 2 from grossman). The bears aren't going to drastically change the nature of their offense (just it's quality), and (hopefully, being a bears fan) won't be playing from behind as much as the broncos were last year. If you believe that Cutler is a better QB than Orton (which I don't think anybody would disagree with), but that the receivers in Chicago are worse (again, no disagreements), and that the bears offense is now better than it was before with the changes being at QB and OL, then I think you can conclude a few things...

1) The bears Offense should score more TDs than last year (because they are better)

2) Cutler probably won't score more passing TDs than he did last year (unless the Offense is MUCH better) because his receivers aren't as good and he won't have to sling it as much as he did in Denver (even though he'll sling it more than Orton).

The bears scored 42 TDs last year (15th in NFL), but 7 of them were special teams/defense (20 passing, 15 rushing). If they become the number 8 offense this year that would be like 8 more TDs or so on offense (it is hard to say for sure, that is a guess based on last years team TD totals). Those TDs have to go somewhere, and I just don't think they all go to Cutler (not to mention that cutler can throw it to forte and they both get it).

Predicting lower TDs for forte I think is based mostly on the belief that last year was some sort of fluke for Forte. There simply is no evidence that last year was a fluke. It could be your hunch (and you may even be right), but it is just a hunch.

 
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I don't know why people don't think Forte will be good this year. First, top 5 RB last year isn't saying that much. It was a down year for running backs.
I think your "first" point doesn't help you at all. In a bad year he was top-5, so what does that mean in a good year, he slides to top-8, 9?
2nd, his offense is going to be significantly better. Their offensive line is better, and their qb is better.
Right, which will lead to more passing, less rushing - things will balance out more. Rushing attempts might be more successful, maybe he'll break 4.0 YPC this year... but his attempts will go down IMO.
Every time a running back has a "great" year, it is because his offense is really good, yet an improvement to the bears is going to hurt Forte????
I think you are wrong on this point. Forte's offense wasn't great last year, as you argue, yet he had a great year. In fact MOST RBs in the top-5 were not on good offenses at all... Turner, Forte, AP - those weren't great offenses.
If the team scores 15 more TDs this year than last, I can tell you with near 100% certainty that Forte's fantasy stats will be better than last year.
I highly doubt the team scores 15 more TDs this year.... maybe 6.Your argument is very flawed in a number of ways. I think Forte is maybe top-10 this year, but not top-5.
 
illini said:
Sho nuff...I'm not joking, although I'm not necessarily 100% serious either (made the TD numbers really high on purpose). I was making a point that it makes little sense to me that people would assume (as you did) that forte will score fewer TDs this year than last. Last year he had 12 total TDs 8 & 4. You have him scoring 10 this year??? A more real guess for me is that he scores 15-17 TD or something this year total, I read after the fact that we were supposed to put in a "projection" that they were going to average so I threw that in. Last year with a team that was playing from behind a lot, Cutler threw 25 TD passes to Orton's 18 (plus 2 from grossman). The bears aren't going to drastically change the nature of their offense (just it's quality), and (hopefully, being a bears fan) won't be playing from behind as much as the broncos were last year. If you believe that Cutler is a better QB than Orton (which I don't think anybody would disagree with), but that the receivers in Chicago are worse (again, no disagreements), and that the bears offense is now better than it was before with the changes being at QB and OL, then I think you can conclude a few things...1) The bears Offense should score more TDs than last year (because they are better)2) Cutler probably won't score more passing TDs than he did last year (unless the Offense is MUCH better) because his receivers aren't as good and he won't have to sling it as much as he did in Denver (even though he'll sling it more than Orton).The bears scored 42 TDs last year (15th in NFL), but 7 of them were special teams/defense (20 passing, 15 rushing). If they become the number 8 offense this year that would be like 8 more TDs or so on offense (it is hard to say for sure, that is a guess based on last years team TD totals). Those TDs have to go somewhere, and I just don't think they all go to Cutler (not to mention that cutler can throw it to forte and they both get it). Predicting lower TDs for forte I think is based mostly on the belief that last year was some sort of fluke for Forte. There simply is no evidence that last year was a fluke. It could be your hunch (and you may even be right), but it is just a hunch.
Well...not saying it was a fluke. But players don't always score more the next year just because things got a little better or appear to have gotten better.IMO...Cutler will throw more near the goalline than they did last year, taking away possible opportunities for Forte. They will possibly also score more from outside of goalline with Cutler throwing it as well.And I don't think Forte will repeat his receptions to the same extent as he did from last year as Cutler will be more apt to look downfield than to dump off as much as Orton did.And I am not totally sold on their changes to the Oline.Forte will have to improve this year as a runner IMO. 3.9 per carry is not going to cut it.
 
switz said:
I don't know why people don't think Forte will be good this year. First, top 5 RB last year isn't saying that much. It was a down year for running backs.
I think your "first" point doesn't help you at all. In a bad year he was top-5, so what does that mean in a good year, he slides to top-8, 9?I'm talking about his total production with regards to peoples "projections" for him (specifically TDs). I never predicted an RB ranking. If RBs return to more traditional outputs and his numbers go down he isn't going to be the 8/9 rb but more like the 13th. I think his numbers could go up quite a bit and his rank could fall, yes. I agree with the logic of your second sentence. However, my "first" point absolutely fits with my arguments.

2nd, his offense is going to be significantly better. Their offensive line is better, and their qb is better.
Right, which will lead to more passing, less rushing - things will balance out more. Rushing attempts might be more successful, maybe he'll break 4.0 YPC this year... but his attempts will go down IMO.How many rushing attempts he gets is inconsequential. I'm not sure there are any leagues that give you points for carries. TDs is what really matters, especially since I didn't even really disagree much with the yards. I have his total yards like 100 more than last year. TDs are what matter in almost every fantasy league. My whole argument is TD based, and YPC based. You can put whatever estimate you want for carries. If he carries it 300 times (<20/game) but averages 4.5 ypc he'll still end up right around my yardage estimate. Either way, barring injury his year is going to hinge on his TDs. I contend that 12 TDs is a low number.

Every time a running back has a "great" year, it is because his offense is really good, yet an improvement to the bears is going to hurt Forte????
I think you are wrong on this point. Forte's offense wasn't great last year, as you argue, yet he had a great year. In fact MOST RBs in the top-5 were not on good offenses at all... Turner, Forte, AP - those weren't great offenses.I guess you are trying to make a semantical argument about the meaning of great. I would argue that there wan't a single GREAT RB last year. That is partly why there is less consensus on who the best guys are this year.

I don't think there is any way you can say that 12 total tds and 225 fantasy points is a GREAT year. Sure, he was 3rd in the league, in a down year (for RBs). 225 points is often about 100 points off the league leader. The 1700 yards is very good, but he needs about 8 more TDs to make the year great. If you are close to 300 points, I would say that is a GREAT year (which is top 3 in a good year for RBs). When I'm talking about GREAT years I'm talking about (note capitalization) The Marshall Faulk year, The Shaun Alexander year, LT's big years, etc. Often the difference between those types of players in a GOOD year and THE GREAT YEAR is that in the great year their offense was much better.

Now, don't go trying to pin on me that I'm saying Forte is going to have that kind of year because that isn't the point at all. I'm pointing out the flawed logic that says that an improved passing game takes TDs away from the starting runningback when in reality the opposite is true.

Again, I'm NOT saying that Forte is the next Marshall Faulk (even though he is)! I'm not saying it... (he is) ...

If the team scores 15 more TDs this year than last, I can tell you with near 100% certainty that Forte's fantasy stats will be better than last year.
I highly doubt the team scores 15 more TDs this year.... maybe 6.I had already posted that I was intentionally making really high td numbers. In my researched post I used 8 tds. I think it is a little disingenuous to try and hold me to something I already said was partly in jest. I say 8, you say 6. Big difference. If you say 6 yet Cutler threw only 5 more TD passes last year than Bears QBs, that leaves one additional rushing TD. Even if none of the passing TDs go to forte that leaves him with 13 TDs instead of 12. My argument has been that his TDs should be higher this year than last.

Your argument is very flawed in a number of ways. I think Forte is maybe top-10 this year, but not top-5.
 
I had already posted that I was intentionally making really high td numbers. In my researched post I used 8 tds. I think it is a little disingenuous to try and hold me to something I already said was partly in jest. I say 8, you say 6. Big difference. If you say 6 yet Cutler threw only 5 more TD passes last year than Bears QBs, that leaves one additional rushing TD. Even if none of the passing TDs go to forte that leaves him with 13 TDs instead of 12. My argument has been that his TDs should be higher this year than last.
I got rid of all the quotes to make it easier to read...So, I haven't really formed a strong opinion of Forte. My gut says he's a journeyman type RB (good at everything, great at nothing) who just had a ton of opportunities, and will eventually be replaced. My head says he did a lot on a bad team, and his rookie numbers were a lot like LT's rookie numbers in similar situations.However, I think calling him the next Marshall Faulk is more than just a little homerism on your part. Faulk is one of the best RBs to EVER play the game, not just a great RB, but his natural skills are probably top 3 of all RBs who EVER played in the NFL. The knee did him a lot of damage. Forte isn't anywhere near Faulk in natural ability. Not even on the same continent.As for his TDs possibly going up? Sure, maybe by 1 or 2, but I don't see him scoring 20+ TDs like the backs you mentioned that had GREAT seasons (caps yours not mine ;) )Forte might end up top-5, but doubt it. That's kinda my take right now... I can see why people like him, I can see how people can be optimistic. I just can't bring myself to see it the same way yet. Maybe after this season, and then it'll be too late (well, really it already is, since my main league is dynasty and I didn't draft him last year)... but I digress.I like that you're sticking to your guns, I think you'll be a quality poster if you bring this enthusiasm and "above the belt" reasoning to all your posts. I haven't seen much posting by you, don't know if you're new or not, but keep it up :mellow:
 
illini said:
Sho nuff...

I'm not joking, although I'm not necessarily 100% serious either (made the TD numbers really high on purpose). I was making a point that it makes little sense to me that people would assume (as you did) that forte will score fewer TDs this year than last. Last year he had 12 total TDs 8 & 4. You have him scoring 10 this year??? A more real guess for me is that he scores 15-17 TD or something this year total, I read after the fact that we were supposed to put in a "projection" that they were going to average so I threw that in.

Last year with a team that was playing from behind a lot, Cutler threw 25 TD passes to Orton's 18 (plus 2 from grossman). The bears aren't going to drastically change the nature of their offense (just it's quality), and (hopefully, being a bears fan) won't be playing from behind as much as the broncos were last year. If you believe that Cutler is a better QB than Orton (which I don't think anybody would disagree with), but that the receivers in Chicago are worse (again, no disagreements), and that the bears offense is now better than it was before with the changes being at QB and OL, then I think you can conclude a few things...

1) The bears Offense should score more TDs than last year (because they are better)

2) Cutler probably won't score more passing TDs than he did last year (unless the Offense is MUCH better) because his receivers aren't as good and he won't have to sling it as much as he did in Denver (even though he'll sling it more than Orton).

The bears scored 42 TDs last year (15th in NFL), but 7 of them were special teams/defense (20 passing, 15 rushing). If they become the number 8 offense this year that would be like 8 more TDs or so on offense (it is hard to say for sure, that is a guess based on last years team TD totals). Those TDs have to go somewhere, and I just don't think they all go to Cutler (not to mention that cutler can throw it to forte and they both get it).

Predicting lower TDs for forte I think is based mostly on the belief that last year was some sort of fluke for Forte. There simply is no evidence that last year was a fluke. It could be your hunch (and you may even be right), but it is just a hunch.
Well...not saying it was a fluke. But players don't always score more the next year just because things got a little better or appear to have gotten better.I don't disagree with that. However, I think that Forte's year last year was actually less good statistically than his play. I'm a bears fan so I watch their games (being a packers fan you probably see a good share of them too). He looked great even though there was constantly 8 and 9 man fronts and his OLine stunk. So while you might be right that things might not get as better as they seem, they could stay the same and he could end up with 11 rushing tds this year just because his QBs and fullback don't combine for 7 TDs. It cuts both ways.

IMO...Cutler will throw more near the goalline than they did last year, taking away possible opportunities for Forte. They will possibly also score more from outside of goalline with Cutler throwing it as well.

That speaks to the point I'm trying to make. I think that an improved passing attack adds more total TDs than passing TDs. So, if the QB gets better, it makes the RB get MORE TDs, not less.

And I don't think Forte will repeat his receptions to the same extent as he did from last year as Cutler will be more apt to look downfield than to dump off as much as Orton did.

I think you are probably right that he won't get as many receptions, but again I think he might get more yards and could easily get more receiving TDs even with less receptions because they are just going to score more.

And I am not totally sold on their changes to the Oline.

If you are right, my analysis will be wrong. That was a crucial assumption in my analysis. Of course, if I wasn't sold on the OLine changes I wouldn't have made the analysis.

Forte will have to improve this year as a runner IMO. 3.9 per carry is not going to cut it.

Agreed. I think the OLine, QB, and resultant 8 man fronts were the problem though, not Forte.
 
I had already posted that I was intentionally making really high td numbers. In my researched post I used 8 tds. I think it is a little disingenuous to try and hold me to something I already said was partly in jest. I say 8, you say 6. Big difference. If you say 6 yet Cutler threw only 5 more TD passes last year than Bears QBs, that leaves one additional rushing TD. Even if none of the passing TDs go to forte that leaves him with 13 TDs instead of 12. My argument has been that his TDs should be higher this year than last.
I got rid of all the quotes to make it easier to read...So, I haven't really formed a strong opinion of Forte. My gut says he's a journeyman type RB (good at everything, great at nothing) who just had a ton of opportunities, and will eventually be replaced. My head says he did a lot on a bad team, and his rookie numbers were a lot like LT's rookie numbers in similar situations.

However, I think calling him the next Marshall Faulk is more than just a little homerism on your part. Faulk is one of the best RBs to EVER play the game, not just a great RB, but his natural skills are probably top 3 of all RBs who EVER played in the NFL. The knee did him a lot of damage. Forte isn't anywhere near Faulk in natural ability. Not even on the same continent.

As for his TDs possibly going up? Sure, maybe by 1 or 2, but I don't see him scoring 20+ TDs like the backs you mentioned that had GREAT seasons (caps yours not mine :confused: )

Forte might end up top-5, but doubt it. That's kinda my take right now... I can see why people like him, I can see how people can be optimistic. I just can't bring myself to see it the same way yet. Maybe after this season, and then it'll be too late (well, really it already is, since my main league is dynasty and I didn't draft him last year)... but I digress.

I like that you're sticking to your guns, I think you'll be a quality poster if you bring this enthusiasm and "above the belt" reasoning to all your posts. I haven't seen much posting by you, don't know if you're new or not, but keep it up :goodposting:
You caught my homerism in Marshall Faulk comparison? I didn't say he was the next Marshall Faulk!!!he is...

By the way, I don't usually post, although I read a lot of this stuff. I only feel like I really know the Bears so that is why I posted. I mean, I can read the stats just like everyone else for the other teams, but I think most people are going to have way more insight into their home team (just you have to filter out the homerism, admittedly). The little changes (like the offensive line) make big differences. Everyone in Chicago is watching Chris Williams closely and he has looked really good in the pre-season (their 1st round pick OT from last year who missed nearly the entire season). If you look at FootballGuys rating for him they give him a C or something which was printed before the season started. How would they even know??

 
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Ladanian Tomlinson as a rookie avg 3.6 YPC and went on to avg 4.5 YPC the next year.

Emmitt Smith as a rookie avg 3.9 YPC and went on to avg 4.5 YPC the next year.

Interesting info.

 

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