Player Spotlight: Matt Schaub (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans

Player Page Link: Matt Schaub Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Blackjacks]

What scares me about Schaub this year is he is everyone's darling to take the big leap in the rankings this year

Almost every1's rankings have him in the top ten and for good reason I do to

The only thing that slow him down is injury but the positives are so eye popping it's hard to ignore them

Stud WR check

good 2nd and 3rd wr check

very good te check

good recieving back check

good oline check

indoor stadium check

not a dominating defense to keep him on the field enough to score check

Ok nevermind all that. All you need to know is he has Andre on his team, but the others' don't hurt

280 completitions

450 attempts

3500 yards

26 td's

10 int's

50 yards rushing

 

[Chase Stuart]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/0..._rearviewqb.php

Schaub played really well last year, but is considered a sleeper this season. Why is that? Because he missed some time due to injury and because he played a difficult schedule. Drew Brees was far and away the #1 fantasy QB last season, but Schaub -- when he was actually on the field -- played as well as any other fantasy QB did outside of Brees. Romo, Schaub, Rodgers, Rivers and Warner all averaged around 24.5 adjFP/adjG last season, which adjusts for games played and SOS. Warner has age issues, Romo lost T.O.; but that means Rodgers, Rivers and Schaub should all be on that same level.

Rodgers and Rivers have ADPs in the top 5 among QBs; Schaub is at #11. I think a lot of people recognize that inconsistency, and that's why Schaub is on so many sleeper lists.

 

[Drop]

The general feel I get with Schaub is that he's not that tough. He gets hit and has to come out of the game too often it seems.

I see him as similar to Marcus Camby in that he's productive but he's rarely going to make it through a whole season. There is a difference between a player who has had some injuries and a player that you can almost be sure is going to get injured. Unfortunately I see Schaub as being the type of player that you can say that about.

Don't get me wrong, I like his talent and perhaps he does turn the corner mentally to fight through the pain, however I feel strongly that he's going to miss time because of the way he has come out of games in the past. It's more of a habit than bad luck in his case. Normally I don't think it's fair to say these types of things about a player, but it's the gut feeling that I get from watching him.

 

[Getinthemix]

The general feel I get with Schaub is that he's not that tough. He gets hit and has to come out of the game too often it seems.I see him as similar to Marcus Camby in that he's productive but he's rarely going to make it through a whole season. There is a difference between a player who has had some injuries and a player that you can almost be sure is going to get injured. Unfortunately I see Schaub as being the type of player that you can say that about. Don't get me wrong, I like his talent and perhaps he does turn the corner mentally to fight through the pain, however I feel strongly that he's going to miss time because of the way he has come out of games in the past. It's more of a habit than bad luck in his case. Normally I don't think it's fair to say these types of things about a player, but it's the gut feeling that I get from watching him.

Do you mean like the two cheap shots, one by Jared Allen and one by Haynseworth, to his knees, that were the reason he missed games last year?

 

[Scooby1974]

The general feel I get with Schaub is that he's not that tough. He gets hit and has to come out of the game too often it seems.I see him as similar to Marcus Camby in that he's productive but he's rarely going to make it through a whole season. There is a difference between a player who has had some injuries and a player that you can almost be sure is going to get injured. Unfortunately I see Schaub as being the type of player that you can say that about. Don't get me wrong, I like his talent and perhaps he does turn the corner mentally to fight through the pain, however I feel strongly that he's going to miss time because of the way he has come out of games in the past. It's more of a habit than bad luck in his case. Normally I don't think it's fair to say these types of things about a player, but it's the gut feeling that I get from watching him.

Do you mean like the two cheap shots, one by Jared Allen and one by Haynseworth, to his knees, that were the reason he missed games last year?

Now now, let's not go confusing people with the facts. Schaub is soft and going to miss some serious time.~the guy that's going to pick him up late in the draft and enjoy his top 8 QB finish in 2009

 

[Drop]

The general feel I get with Schaub is that he's not that tough. He gets hit and has to come out of the game too often it seems.I see him as similar to Marcus Camby in that he's productive but he's rarely going to make it through a whole season. There is a difference between a player who has had some injuries and a player that you can almost be sure is going to get injured. Unfortunately I see Schaub as being the type of player that you can say that about. Don't get me wrong, I like his talent and perhaps he does turn the corner mentally to fight through the pain, however I feel strongly that he's going to miss time because of the way he has come out of games in the past. It's more of a habit than bad luck in his case. Normally I don't think it's fair to say these types of things about a player, but it's the gut feeling that I get from watching him.

Do you mean like the two cheap shots, one by Jared Allen and one by Haynseworth, to his knees, that were the reason he missed games last year?

Do you think cheap shots won't be part of the NFL this season?Seriously though you follow the Texans, is there anything that you've seen that maybe just might suggest he's not that tough? Even just a little? Can you look at that type of thing objectively with a proper frame relative to QBs around the league or do you see subtle things like that the way you want to see them because you have a rooting interest?Assuming you are a Texans fan and a Schaub fan, what are the worst things you can say about him? What are the little things that worry you about him? You might have some anxiety with a QB who shows potential but hasn't taken that step to being elite. Deep down what are the worst things you could say about him? I think your honest answer to that question will be extremely valuable to this thread.

 

[Joe Paterno]

How is Houston's OL holding up lately? That's my biggest concern--and I haven't followed them.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

The general feel I get with Schaub is that he's not that tough. He gets hit and has to come out of the game too often it seems.I see him as similar to Marcus Camby in that he's productive but he's rarely going to make it through a whole season. There is a difference between a player who has had some injuries and a player that you can almost be sure is going to get injured. Unfortunately I see Schaub as being the type of player that you can say that about. Don't get me wrong, I like his talent and perhaps he does turn the corner mentally to fight through the pain, however I feel strongly that he's going to miss time because of the way he has come out of games in the past. It's more of a habit than bad luck in his case. Normally I don't think it's fair to say these types of things about a player, but it's the gut feeling that I get from watching him.

Do you mean like the two cheap shots, one by Jared Allen and one by Haynseworth, to his knees, that were the reason he missed games last year?

Now now, let's not go confusing people with the facts. Schaub is soft and going to miss some serious time.~the guy that's going to pick him up late in the draft and enjoy his top 8 QB finish in 2009

Which QBs do you really expect to get taken ahead of him?I don't expect he'll drop very far in my league.Ok, I just went and checked, and I guess he did go about 12th in my draft last year as a guy's second QB, but I'd expect that to change considering his increased production and the drop of some of the other name QBs.

 

[coolnerd]

How is Houston's OL holding up lately? That's my biggest concern--and I haven't followed them.

It is a middle of the pack OL. Does not dominate, but is not the joke it was for the first 5 years of the teams existence. Biggest issue is whether Duane Brown can hold up at left tackle.

 

[coolnerd]

The general feel I get with Schaub is that he's not that tough. He gets hit and has to come out of the game too often it seems.I see him as similar to Marcus Camby in that he's productive but he's rarely going to make it through a whole season. There is a difference between a player who has had some injuries and a player that you can almost be sure is going to get injured. Unfortunately I see Schaub as being the type of player that you can say that about. Don't get me wrong, I like his talent and perhaps he does turn the corner mentally to fight through the pain, however I feel strongly that he's going to miss time because of the way he has come out of games in the past. It's more of a habit than bad luck in his case. Normally I don't think it's fair to say these types of things about a player, but it's the gut feeling that I get from watching him.

Do you mean like the two cheap shots, one by Jared Allen and one by Haynseworth, to his knees, that were the reason he missed games last year?

Do you think cheap shots won't be part of the NFL this season?Seriously though you follow the Texans, is there anything that you've seen that maybe just might suggest he's not that tough? Even just a little? Can you look at that type of thing objectively with a proper frame relative to QBs around the league or do you see subtle things like that the way you want to see them because you have a rooting interest?Assuming you are a Texans fan and a Schaub fan, what are the worst things you can say about him? What are the little things that worry you about him? You might have some anxiety with a QB who shows potential but hasn't taken that step to being elite. Deep down what are the worst things you could say about him? I think your honest answer to that question will be extremely valuable to this thread.

I don't question the mental toughness of Schaub, but until he gets through a season questioning whether or not his body can hold up is legitimate. A large part of the deal is showing up, whether it is the player's "fault" or not. The second major concern for me is that until the last 3 to 4 starts of last year, Schaub seemed to have a quarter or so of football where his accuracy and reads were not starting quality. He seemed to fix this late in the year, but I want to see more consistency in that area.

 

[Banger]

I loved Schaub last year and acquired him on all my teams...this year I'll still target him late but he's getting more expensive. Last year, he and Rosenfelds combined for 4400 passing yards which was good for 4th in the NFL on a ypg basis. I don't really see their offense changing a great deal as they didn't really add any major parts on the offense that would indicate they are going to alter their attack.

I think 4000+ yards and 23 or so TD's is very likely.

 

[TaxMan]

IF, big IF, he plays 16 gms, his floor would be 3600 yds and 22 TDs.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

This is what I wrote about Schaub last season...

We essentially have 1 years worth of data on Schaub. I was particularly interested in seeing others reaction to him and also how much people projected him, not in terms of his stats but just what kind of response he received. In short, he is my sleeper of the year:

In 2007, Matt Schaub finished 5th in the NFL in Completion % & 6th in the NFL in YPA. If you review the NFL over the last 5 years, here are the QB's how did this:

2007

Brady

Favre

2006

Romo (1st year as starter)

Manning

Brees

2005

Manning

Bulger

2004

Culpepper

Manning

Roethlisberger (1st year as starter)

Green

2003

Manning

Culpepper

So in 2008, how did Schaub fare in these categories? 4th in Completion % and 2nd in YPA...and the only QB to rank in the Top 5 in Completion % and Top 6 in YPA in 2008. IMO, the fact that he's done this 2 years in a row (his first two as a starter) bodes well for feeling comfortable about reaching for him. Since 2003, only 2 other QB's have done this more than once (Manning & Culpepper). In additon, the Texans throw alot. Schaub was on pace for 580 attempts over 16 games. So you've got a QB who throws alot and when he does throw it, completes alot of passes and when he does complete them, he completes them downfield. What more do you want?Well...a QB that plays more than 10.5 games. In fairness to Schaub, he has been beset by legitimate injuries. But until he proves his durability over a 16 game schedule, he will provoke skepticism by not only fantasy leaguers, but by Texans followers as well. The Texans as an organization need for Schaub to take this team by the horns for the entire year and they've essentially bet on Schaub to do just that by trading Rosenfels. In addition, for someone who has been as prolific as Schuab has been throwing the ball, only 24 of his 669 (3.58% TD rate) attempts as Texans QB have gone for TD's. That is decidedly mediocre, especially when considering he's got an asset like Andre Johnson to throw to. Schaub should be making it his personal mission to get Johnson into the 12-13 TD range this year. He only threw 5 TD's to Johnson in 2008.

That said, I believe in Schaub. I think he's an extremely underrated talent. One who hasn't earned the type of respect his production would warrant. Of course, the Texans as a franchise need to emerge for that to have a greater chance at happening. I think this is the year it comes together.

Prediction: 375 Completions, 569 Attempts, 65.9 Completion Rate, 7.92 YPA, 4506 Passing Yards, 26 TD's, 16 INT's, 27 Rushes, 64 Rushing Yards, 1 TD - Top 3 Fantasy QB.

 

[MAC_32]

His health is the only reason I'm not targeting him like I am Carson and Hass. In a shallower league I'd be more willing to take him on, easier to replace, but if I could pair him with one of those other two QB's I'll walk out of the draft very happy.

 

[Scooby1974]

You guys act as if Schaub sits himself down

Titans | Finnegan fined $25,000

Fri, 19 Dec 2008 08:15:57 -0800

Adam Schefter, of the NFL Network, reports Tennessee Titans CB Cortland Finnegan has been fined $25,000 for roughing the passer when he made helmet-to-helmet contract with Houston Texans QB Matt Schaub, and on another play for unnecessary roughness when he speared an opponent.

He didn't miss time despite a cheap shot here...

Vikings | Allen called to league offices - from www.KFFL.com

Sun, 16 Nov 2008 09:53:33 -0800

Jay Glazer, of FOXSports.com, reports Minnesota Vikings DL Jared Allen said he has been summoned to the NFL offices for a meeting Tuesday, Nov. 18, to explain his play against opposing quarterbacks the past few weeks and try to avoid a severe fine or possible suspension. He was fined $50,000 for a pair of hits on Houston Texans QB Matt Schaub and was flagged again for unnecessary roughness on a helmet-to-helmet hit on Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers in the team's Week 10 game. "I really hope they can see that I'm not malicious and would never intentionally injure another NFL player. I'm old school. I have respect for everyone in this game whether you are on my team or not," Allen said.

Vikings | Allen refuses to comment on $50,000 fine - from www.KFFL.com

Sun, 09 Nov 2008 06:56:29 -0800

Jay Glazer, of FOXSports.com, reports Minnesota Vikings DL Jared Allen has refused to comment on his $50,000 fine for two low blows on Houston Texans QB Matt Schaub. "I'll refrain from commenting on the fine until after the appeal process. There's a lot I want to say about it but I'd be foolish to say a damn thing right now," said Allen.

We aren't talking about a bruised pinky on his throwing hand or a little headache. Schaub was expected to miss up to 6 weeks, yet came back early (week 14) after getting hurt in week 10.

 

[Stewy]

You guys act as if Schaub sits himself down

Titans | Finnegan fined $25,000

Fri, 19 Dec 2008 08:15:57 -0800

Adam Schefter, of the NFL Network, reports Tennessee Titans CB Cortland Finnegan has been fined $25,000 for roughing the passer when he made helmet-to-helmet contract with Houston Texans QB Matt Schaub, and on another play for unnecessary roughness when he speared an opponent.

He didn't miss time despite a cheap shot here...

Vikings | Allen called to league offices - from www.KFFL.com

Sun, 16 Nov 2008 09:53:33 -0800

Jay Glazer, of FOXSports.com, reports Minnesota Vikings DL Jared Allen said he has been summoned to the NFL offices for a meeting Tuesday, Nov. 18, to explain his play against opposing quarterbacks the past few weeks and try to avoid a severe fine or possible suspension. He was fined $50,000 for a pair of hits on Houston Texans QB Matt Schaub and was flagged again for unnecessary roughness on a helmet-to-helmet hit on Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers in the team's Week 10 game. "I really hope they can see that I'm not malicious and would never intentionally injure another NFL player. I'm old school. I have respect for everyone in this game whether you are on my team or not," Allen said.

Vikings | Allen refuses to comment on $50,000 fine - from www.KFFL.com

Sun, 09 Nov 2008 06:56:29 -0800

Jay Glazer, of FOXSports.com, reports Minnesota Vikings DL Jared Allen has refused to comment on his $50,000 fine for two low blows on Houston Texans QB Matt Schaub. "I'll refrain from commenting on the fine until after the appeal process. There's a lot I want to say about it but I'd be foolish to say a damn thing right now," said Allen.

We aren't talking about a bruised pinky on his throwing hand or a little headache. Schaub was expected to miss up to 6 weeks, yet came back early (week 14) after getting hurt in week 10.

Chargers cornerback Drayton Florence fined for hit on SchaubThe helmet-to-helmet hit that concussed Matt Schaub and will keep Schaub out this week again will cost San Diego corner Drayton Florence $15,000. Houston GM Rick Smith thinks the $15,000 fine for such a brutal and illegal hit isn’t nearly enough. Florence blind-sided Schaub during the game last Sunday, and it was the second time in two weeks Schaub took a hit from a helmet.

 

[rzrback77]

I really like Matt Schaub's prospects for 09. He is in an up and coming offense with three or four outstanding receiving options. Their recent history has been to pass a lot and with AJ why wouldn't you? He has missed five games in each of the past two seasons, but I am not sold that is all on the player. I think that Houston's offensive line has improved some and should expect better protection.

Matt Schaub 570 attempts 382 completions 67.0% 4446 yards 7.8 ypa 25 TDs 15 ints

 

[Phlash]

Assuming Matt Schaub makes it through 16 games he easily hits 4000 yards and 25+ TDs. He has a fantastic supporting cast and is a very talented passer himself.

 

[Flea Flicker]

One thing not mentioned yet is Schaub's contract status. Not that I think he needs the extra motivation necessary to play well, but having some on the line doesn't hurt. He is reaching the midpoint of a 6-year deal that will pay him a $10 million option bonus if exercised before 2010.

He's coached by a former QB, and he's tougher than his # of games played the last two seasons has shown. Given how low you can probably get him as your QB1 (seems most rank him around QB11-QB13 on average), it's wise to take your QB2 sooner than later with this strategy anyway.

Schaub will really need to show some improved ability to convert in the redzone. He'd be a lock to throw for more than 4,000 yards in a full season; what's really questionable for him (and in turn for the likes of Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, and Owen Daniels) is whether he has progressed enough to make the right decisions when the field's shorter. The offensive system (combined with the ZBS running game) imported from Denver probably has a passing TD ceiling of around 25 TDs, so keep that in mind if you're inclined to push the high end of the projections here in even the best scenarios.

352/530, 4,227 passing yards, 22 PTD, 14 INT, 50 rushing yards, 1 RTD

 

[ericttspikes]

The general feel I get with Schaub is that he's not that tough. He gets hit and has to come out of the game too often it seems.I see him as similar to Marcus Camby in that he's productive but he's rarely going to make it through a whole season. There is a difference between a player who has had some injuries and a player that you can almost be sure is going to get injured. Unfortunately I see Schaub as being the type of player that you can say that about. Don't get me wrong, I like his talent and perhaps he does turn the corner mentally to fight through the pain, however I feel strongly that he's going to miss time because of the way he has come out of games in the past. It's more of a habit than bad luck in his case. Normally I don't think it's fair to say these types of things about a player, but it's the gut feeling that I get from watching him.

Do you mean like the two cheap shots, one by Jared Allen and one by Haynseworth, to his knees, that were the reason he missed games last year?

He also got hurt at Virginia that caused him to miss games. He's either unlucky or there is a trend.

 

[Drop]

How many total concussions has he had in his football career?

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Taken from NFL.com

There's a reason Texans offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan looks so young. He is. At 29, he's the youngest coordinator in the NFL, easily mistakable for a ball boy until he puts on the headsets.

This season, Shanahan begins his second year as offensive coordinator and his first at gameday play calling. He called plays at times last season, but coach Gary Kubiak has removed the training wheels and given him the job full-time.

"Honestly, I feel my responsibilities this year are exactly the same as last year," Shanahan said. "Going into my second year into it, guys know what I want to get done and I'll get a little more respect."

Shanahan doesn't think he'll be reaching for the Alka-Seltzer more often.

"This is why I like coaching," he said. "We like the pressure. It's the motivation to get up as early as we do and stay as late as we do. If the pressure wasn't there, it would be too much of a grind. It's what we enjoy and why we do it."

Shanahan has a good situation as he takes the next step in his coaching career.

The Texans finished third in the league in yards last season and set franchise records with 6,113 total yards, 4,267 passing and 1,846 rushing. Quarterback Matt Schaub became a 3,000-yard passer for the first time, rookie Steve Slaton ran for 1,282 yards, leading all NFL rookies. Andre Johnson led the NFL with 1,575 receiving yards and 115 catches and earned a Pro Bowl assignment.

"I've been excited about this year, because he's (Kubiak) been more vocal about it and told me he wants me to do it full-time," Shanahan said. "I think I owe it to him so I can do my job and he can focus on his.

"I think Kubs has seen me go through it. He knows what I'm trying to do and he's letting me go with it a little more. It's not my first time doing it. This is the first time in my coaching career that I've had for two years in a row. I've changed jobs or positions every year. Finally getting to go through a job for another year, I feel more comfortable. The guys know what to expect."

Shanahan's new assignment is more noteworthy to fans than it is within the team.

"It's just a different voice on the headset," Schaub said. "I don't think it's going to be too much different. It's the same plays. Kyle has the same mindset as Kub with certain situations and being aggressive and knowing when to take a chance. He called a lot of the last few games.

"We have a good relationship with Kyle. He knows us as quarterbacks . I think it's going to be a smooth transition."

Shanahan likely will put his imprint on the playbook.

"I can be a little more aggressive," he said. "I'm more impulsive being a little younger and not having that wisdom with my age. I think that can be good and bad, and when it gets bad, he's (Kubiak) going to hold me back."

Kubiak has seen enough to trust Shanahan with the reins of the offense.

"It's a great feeling that you prepare for a game and you go into the game and Kyle's going to call it and you're sitting there," Kubiak said. "We've been over it together and worked on it. I might have some different ideas in certain situations but it's a comfort zone for me as we prepare for games to know that he's ready to go do it."

The question of Shanahan's boyish looks has been answered long ago. In fact, Shanahan sees his youth as an asset.

"I always wanted to be in this position when I was young," Shanahan said. "If you know what you're doing when you're young, you are able to relate to the players a little better. You're closer in age. You put on some of the same music, do some of the same things."

Schaub and Shanahan have developed a close relationship, partly because they are both young.

"We talk after every single play," Shanahan said. "We're in every meeting together. I know how he thinks and he knows how I think. It's no more telling him if he's right or wrong because he knows. He knows our rules and what we want. We watch film together. If he sees something I don't see, I trust him that he knows what he's talking about."

Schaub is anticipating more aggressive play-calling this season.

"I love it as a quarterback, especially with the receivers we have," Schaub said. "And up front, we have guys that can get those things done.

"Kyle is a little more aggressive play caller and aggressive coach. He's new at it, but he understands defenses. You don't get too many chances to make a big play. When you get those opportunities, you have to take advantage of them. You have to dial them up right away. You don't want to hold on to them and wish you had called them."

Shanahan has had football crammed into his head since he was a kid. He's the son of former Denver Broncos coach Mike Shanahan, who won two Super Bowls in the 1990s. He spent one season as a graduate assistant at UCLA. His first pro job was offensive quality control at Tampa Bay. In 2006, he coached wide receivers for Kubiak and the Texans. He moved to quarterbacks coach the next year and became offensive coordinator in 2008.

"If you know what you're talking about, you can get through to them," Shanahan said. "If you are young and don't know what you're talking about, I can't think of a worse position to be in. They'll see that right away and they'll walk all over you.

"We have a good group of guys. I think they all respect me and they are easy to coach."

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

With the more aggressive play calling and the big play ability of A. Johnson and the Texans passing attack, this may be the last year to get Schuab for as cheap as you can this year. If he stays healthy he is going to be a huge bargain.

 

[jsharlan]

its hard to tell if Matt is injury prone due to the bad luck of multiple illegal hits in the last 2 years. I believe the hits from Jared Allen would have taken any QB down. When he plays hes deadly efficient, has multiple weapons to work with, and is in an offense that likes to throw the ball alot. If you can draft a reliable veteran backup as insurance, Matt could win your league for you.

 

[Bills_Fan11]

I love this guy. Everyone downgrades him for the injuries, but it's amazing what 1 year can do. Nobody considers Aaron Rodgers a health-risk anymore. I mean good for him for playing every game last year, but how much did him playing thru a bad shoulder help your fantasy team last year?

 

[moleculo]

last year the Texans threw the ball an awful lot - >60% of the time. Knowing what I know about Kubiak and anyone from the Shanahan tree, that will come down some. Maybe not to the NFL average, but you'd have to assume the Texans will run more than last year, given a proven back, right?

Wouldn't that eat into Shaubs #'s?

I don't think there is any way he cracks 4k yards.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

last year the Texans threw the ball an awful lot - >60% of the time. Knowing what I know about Kubiak and anyone from the Shanahan tree, that will come down some. Maybe not to the NFL average, but you'd have to assume the Texans will run more than last year, given a proven back, right?Wouldn't that eat into Shaubs #'s?I don't think there is any way he cracks 4k yards.

They had the same starting running back for practically the full season a year ago and threw like crazy. Why would that change that much now just because he's "a year more proven?"I think the Texans would like to run more....I also think every team would like that going in to every year. The Texans defense is still a work in progress from where I'm sitting, so "wanting to run more" may go out the window in more games than they'd like.I Schaub still has an excellent shot to break 4,000 yards, unless he misses significant time. If he plays the majority of the games and still doesn't break it, I'd wager he's still going to be in the high 3s.

 

[moleculo]

last year the Texans threw the ball an awful lot - >60% of the time. Knowing what I know about Kubiak and anyone from the Shanahan tree, that will come down some. Maybe not to the NFL average, but you'd have to assume the Texans will run more than last year, given a proven back, right?

Wouldn't that eat into Shaubs #'s?

I don't think there is any way he cracks 4k yards.

They had the same starting running back for practically the full season a year ago and threw like crazy. Why would that change that much now just because he's "a year more proven" now? I think the only way Schaub DOESN'T crack 4k yards is if he misses time.

regression to the mean
a strive for balance. The M. Shanahan O (and I assume the Kubiak O as well) works best at a roughly 50/50 split. That's about what it was even when Terrell Davis ran for 2k. When there were more passes (last year for example), that pointed to a weakness @ RB and D. When there were more runs, that indicated a QB that Shanahan didn't trust (Plummer). If Kubes is running the same O he ran in Denver, he'd want balance.
Proven back - Slaton got a ton of carries last year; that's true. But pre-season, when Kubes was setting up the O, I'm not sure he knew he had something he could hang his hat on in the RB department. I believe that teams construct their strategies in the off-season, and don't depart too far from that as the season progresses, but that's JMO.

 

[travdogg]

last year the Texans threw the ball an awful lot - >60% of the time. Knowing what I know about Kubiak and anyone from the Shanahan tree, that will come down some. Maybe not to the NFL average, but you'd have to assume the Texans will run more than last year, given a proven back, right?

Wouldn't that eat into Shaubs #'s?

I don't think there is any way he cracks 4k yards.

They had the same starting running back for practically the full season a year ago and threw like crazy. Why would that change that much now just because he's "a year more proven" now? I think the only way Schaub DOESN'T crack 4k yards is if he misses time.

regression to the mean
a strive for balance. The M. Shanahan O (and I assume the Kubiak O as well) works best at a roughly 50/50 split. That's about what it was even when Terrell Davis ran for 2k. When there were more passes (last year for example), that pointed to a weakness @ RB and D. When there were more runs, that indicated a QB that Shanahan didn't trust (Plummer). If Kubes is running the same O he ran in Denver, he'd want balance.
Proven back - Slaton got a ton of carries last year; that's true. But pre-season, when Kubes was setting up the O, I'm not sure he knew he had something he could hang his hat on in the RB department. I believe that teams construct their strategies in the off-season, and don't depart too far from that as the season progresses, but that's JMO.

I don't see Houston as being the same offense as what Denver ran when Kubiak was there. Sure its still a west coast offense and has likely the same terminology, but its still a different play caller.The Texans last year had a 56-44 pass/run ratio. That's pretty much the league average. I don't see any reason why that will come down. If anything its more likely to increase as Schaub(and his many weapons) continues to improve.

 

[moleculo]

last year the Texans threw the ball an awful lot - >60% of the time. Knowing what I know about Kubiak and anyone from the Shanahan tree, that will come down some. Maybe not to the NFL average, but you'd have to assume the Texans will run more than last year, given a proven back, right?

Wouldn't that eat into Shaubs #'s?

I don't think there is any way he cracks 4k yards.

They had the same starting running back for practically the full season a year ago and threw like crazy. Why would that change that much now just because he's "a year more proven" now? I think the only way Schaub DOESN'T crack 4k yards is if he misses time.

regression to the mean
a strive for balance. The M. Shanahan O (and I assume the Kubiak O as well) works best at a roughly 50/50 split. That's about what it was even when Terrell Davis ran for 2k. When there were more passes (last year for example), that pointed to a weakness @ RB and D. When there were more runs, that indicated a QB that Shanahan didn't trust (Plummer). If Kubes is running the same O he ran in Denver, he'd want balance.
Proven back - Slaton got a ton of carries last year; that's true. But pre-season, when Kubes was setting up the O, I'm not sure he knew he had something he could hang his hat on in the RB department. I believe that teams construct their strategies in the off-season, and don't depart too far from that as the season progresses, but that's JMO.

I don't see Houston as being the same offense as what Denver ran when Kubiak was there. Sure its still a west coast offense and has likely the same terminology, but its still a different play caller.The Texans last year had a 56-44 pass/run ratio. That's pretty much the league average. I don't see any reason why that will come down. If anything its more likely to increase as Schaub(and his many weapons) continues to improve.

you are correct. I was looking at some bad data...for some reason I had them @ 61/39 split. If they threw for almost 4500 as a team last year, 4k is realistic for Shaub. I rescind my original point.

 

[Dexter Manley]

I had Schaub as my #1 qb in a 16 team league last season. I also handcuffed him with Sage. That to me is the only downside with Schaub this year compared to last -- that Sage left so Schaub no longer has a backup who is guranteed production if he goes down.

I really don't see Schaub as a greater injury risk than guys like Tom Brady, as most of his injuries have been due to illegal hits. He has also demonstrated that he's a fast healer when he has been hurt.

My plan has been to target him in all my drafts. As Chase pointed out, there's really not much difference between Schaub and guys like Rodgers and Rivers, and he comes a lot cheaper. Starting the entire year, I would expect Schaub to put up similar #'s to what Rodgers and Rivers produced last year.

I think the word on Schaub is getting out though, as he just went 4.05 in a 12 team draft I had the other night, and I wouldn't describe the guy who drafted him as a shark.