Player Spotlight: Philip Rivers (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers

Player Page Link: Philip Rivers Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[a_troll00]

:crickets:

Alright, let's see if we can get some discussion going on this guy. Basically, I was not very impressed with Rivers last season. He didn't put up impressive stats, and really only threw the ball to his safety valves. There were high hopes for V. Jackson to have a breakout year, and Chris Chambers was acquired by trade during the season. Still, there wasn't much WR production out of the offense, and it really looked like Rivers wasn't making any progress as a QB at all.

Then, the playoffs happen. Suddenly, something just clicked in the guy. He threw the ball like a poised, confident, and experienced QB. He started hitting Jackson and Chambers for big plays and they challenged the Pats in the AFC Championship game. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in the playoffs.

Until we know more of what the status is of his knee, it will be hard to pick him as a QB1. It wouldn't be surprising to see him have a slow start to the season, but then get stronger as the season progresses.

3300yds 22 tds 14 ints

 

[rzrback77]

Philip Rivers is difficult to project due to the ACL injury late in last year's playoffs. In his two years as a starter, he has attempted exactly 460 passes and completed 284 and then 277, averaging 61% completion rate. He has also averaged close to 200 yards per game over those two seasons. Last year he had two games over 300 yards passing and four others between 249 and 300. He finished the regular season with 11TDs in his last 7 games and had four more in the playoffs, where he averaged 256 yards per game.

I will need to see him and Gates both with good reports in preseason work before I feel confident in drafting him, but he has finished as QB8 and QB15 in the two previous years and he really improved down the stretch last year, so if healthy, he should finish around ten to fifteen. He will be in a large group of QBs that you can grab late. His current ADP is QB14 at 102 overall. I see that as about right for him and actually like a couple of others (Schaub is one) that can be taken even later.

Philip Rivers 265 comp 460 att 57.6% 3100 yards 6.7 ypa for 24 TDs and 13 TDs with very little rushing and no TDs

 

[Chase Stuart]

I like Rivers, but he's yet to be a fantasy factor. He's a better NFL QB than FF QB. In two years, he's got four total 300 yard games and four total 3-TD games. He just doesn't produce enough to be a QB1 in most leagues, regardless of his year end numbers. On a per game basis, he's not very attractive.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I like Rivers, but he's yet to be a fantasy factor. He's a better NFL QB than FF QB. In two years, he's got four total 300 yard games and four total 3-TD games. He just doesn't produce enough to be a QB1 in most leagues, regardless of his year end numbers. On a per game basis, he's not very attractive.

If he continues to mature (and I think he will), sooner or later San Diego's gotta throw the ball more than 460 times in a season. I think he's a great QB2 target for dynasty leagues - and that he'll eventually end up as a mid-to-low QB1 depending on league size.This season he'll probably be around where he was in 2007 due to the ACL and LT's continuing dominance of the offense.

 

[Our Gang]

This is the year to really target rivers in dynasty. You should be able to get him for less now then you ever have been able to- don't miss the boat on Rivers.

 

[fightingillini]

As long as LT is there, Rivers upside is limited. He's coming off of a ACL injury, and his #1 target, Gates, may not be 100% to start the season. He's wasn't very consistent in 2007.....had 5 games of zero TD passes, and had 10 games where he threw for under 200 yds. In 2007, he ranked 18th in PPG for QBs that played at least 10 games. Too many clunkers for me to rely on him. At his current ADP of QB14, I'll pass.

3250 yds passing, 21 TD, 14 Int

50 yds rushing, 0 TD

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Rivers isn't a great fantasy option. He's a #2 QB at best. More value as a NFL QB.

For those wondering early reports are that he is ahead of schedule with the ACL injury and is expected to be ready to go at TC.

 

[Mr. Mojo]

San Diego plays almost all of their games in 2008 against teams that were very strong against the pass in 2007.

I'm downgrading him for that reason alone.

 

[Two Deep]

3600 yards 25 TDS 15 INT Rush #'s 31 yards 1TD

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

As others have mentioned, Rivers is a better NFL quarterback than fantasy quarterback.

I'm not worried about the knee. Rivers was apparently fine during mini-camp, and if the Chargers had a game this week, he'd start. (Gates, by contrast, won't be ready for the start of training camp, and I don't think he'll be ready for the start of the season.)

Rivers got off to a slow start last year as Norv Turner threw a bunch of stuff at him. While Norv was heavily criticized for the team's slow start, he maintained that the stuff he was throwing at the offense (which they struggled with early) would be necessary during the playoffs. Rivers and the offense did pick things up quite a bit during the last six games of the regular season and in the playoffs.

There shouldn't be such a slow start this season, as Rivers & Co. have spent a full year under Norv.

I don't have Rivers ranked all that high because I don't think the Chargers are going to become Air Coryell anytime soon. They'll lean on LT and the rushing game.

But of the guys in the mid-QB2 range, I do think Rivers has some of the best upside potential. Brees was a top 10 fantasy QB twice in a similar system with similar personnel in San Diego, and Rivers has the ability to park himself in the top 10 for years to come; but with the Chargers expected to have a much lower run-pass ratio than, for example, the Patriots, Cowboys, Saints, Colts, Seahawks, Eagles, etc. -- Rivers can't rank ahead of the premium QBs who will likely get a lot more pass attempts than he will.

Projection based on 15 projected games:

288 completions on 472 attempts for 3311 yards, 22 touchdowns, 13 interceptions. (36 rushes for 48 yards, 1 TD.)

 

[Jon_Moore]

In 2006, Rivers was a very effecient fantasy quarterback only turning it over 11 Times. He looked poised to step into that stud tier. Then, in 2007, he regressed. He was really inconsistent. He had 7 games with a QB Rating of better than 100. The other 9 were all below 75. In the 7 games with a qb rating over 100, he averaged just over 24 attempts per game. In the 9 under 75, nearly 33 a game. If he passes alot, he eventually messes up. It appears most important to the teams success to keep him under 25 attempts a game--not that that's always possible.

WHY did this happen in 2007 after the super effecient 2006? He threw the same number of passes, completed 7 less, not really a change. But he found a way to throw it a way 6 more times, and fumble it away 4 more. With Tomlinson not DOMINATING the way he did in 2006, Rivers was asked to win some games, and he just couldn't always do that--certainly not quite so efficiently.

Now Turner's gone--the ground game has 1 less option. He's got Chambers and Davis becoming more comfortable in the offense, and Tomlinson/Gates are uberstuds. He has the weapons, I just don't think he'll get back to the low turnover numbers unless Tomlinson dominates like he did in 2006.

276/448

3180 Yards

20 Tds

15 Ints

30 Rushes

35 Yards

3 Lost Fumbles

 

[RBM]

As others have mentioned, Rivers is a better NFL quarterback than fantasy quarterback.

I'm not worried about the knee. Rivers was apparently fine during mini-camp, and if the Chargers had a game this week, he'd start. (Gates, by contrast, won't be ready for the start of training camp, and I don't think he'll be ready for the start of the season.)

Rivers got off to a slow start last year as Norv Turner threw a bunch of stuff at him. While Norv was heavily criticized for the team's slow start, he maintained that the stuff he was throwing at the offense (which they struggled with early) would be necessary during the playoffs. Rivers and the offense did pick things up quite a bit during the last six games of the regular season and in the playoffs.

There shouldn't be such a slow start this season, as Rivers & Co. have spent a full year under Norv.

I don't have Rivers ranked all that high because I don't think the Chargers are going to become Air Coryell anytime soon. They'll lean on LT and the rushing game.

But of the guys in the mid-QB2 range, I do think Rivers has some of the best upside potential. Brees was a top 10 fantasy QB twice in a similar system with similar personnel in San Diego, and Rivers has the ability to park himself in the top 10 for years to come; but with the Chargers expected to have a much lower run-pass ratio than, for example, the Patriots, Cowboys, Saints, Colts, Seahawks, Eagles, etc. -- Rivers can't rank ahead of the premium QBs who will likely get a lot more pass attempts than he will.

Projection based on 15 projected games:

288 completions on 472 attempts for 3311 yards, 22 touchdowns, 13 interceptions. (36 rushes for 48 yards, 1 TD.)

Perfect projection Especially a fan of the bolded part

 

[BigRed]

If he continues to mature (and I think he will), sooner or later San Diego's gotta throw the ball more than 460 times in a season.

Yeah - soon as LT retires. That isn't happening this year, so Rivers will likely again produce somewhat lower TDs/yards - although there is some potential for #s increasingly modestly enough to be a good backup.