Player Spotlight: Philip Rivers (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers

Player Page Link: Philip Rivers Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Tau837]

Last year, the Chargers offense only ran 924 plays. Only 3 teams (Browns, Raiders, Lions) ran fewer. In 2007, they ran 980. In 2006, they ran 1016, though I put less stock in that season since Rivers was a first year starter and Marty was head coach, so the offensive playcalling was presumably quite different. Why did their offensive plays drop so much? Here are a few reasons:

1. They hit on a lot of long gains, including a number of long scores, which shortened a lot of their scoring drives.

2. Their defense regressed significantly last season -- in 2008, they were #25 in yards allowed, compared to #15 in 2007 and #10 in 2006... so they presumably allowed their opponents a lot more time of possession, thus preventing the Chargers offense from running more plays.

3. With Tomlinson playing through injury, the Chargers RBs averaged 4.0 ypc last year, compared to 4.5 ypc in 2007.

Better effectiveness in the running game presumably will result in at least a few more first downs, and thus more plays, and better effectiveness on defense should give the offense more opportunities. So I'm expecting 980-1000 plays. Because of LT's age and recent injury issues, plus the impressive performance by the Chargers passing game last year, I do not expect all of those extra plays to go to the running game... I think Rivers could reach 500 passing attempts for the first time.

Now, that represents his opportunity. How about his effectiveness? Last season, he posted career highs in completion percentage, yards per attempt, TD percentage, and QB rating. Why? Consider:

In 2006, he was a first year starter in a different and more conservative offense; he had 36 year old McCardell, Eric Parker, and Michael Turner instead of Chambers, Davis, Naanee, and Sproles; and Chambers and Floyd were not yet developed. In 2007, Rivers was adjusting to a new offense and a fair amount of turnover in offensive personnel -- McCardell, Parker, and Turner were gone, Naanee and Davis were rookies, and Sproles was back... and Chambers arrived and integrated into the offense at midseason.

In 2008, Rivers was a third year starter, and for the first time was a returning starter in the same offense. He also had a better set of targets than in the previous two seasons. The 2008 season is obviously the most similar to his situation in 2009, and, in fact, his situation in 2009 should be even better, with better health for his OL, Tomlinson, Gates, and his WRs, who collectively missed several games.

In college, Rivers was very good as a freshman, great as a sophomore and junior, and exploded in his senior (4th) year. I think he exploded last year, his third as an NFL starter, so I don't expect a similar jump as he had in college... but I see no reason that he can't come close to repeating his performance. And I want to note that there is significant upside here... suppose Tomlinson went down early, and the Chargers are left with rookie Gartrell Johnson and Sproles in the backfield... I could see Rivers getting 550+ attempts. Meanwhile, there isn't much downside... the Chargers were #25 in the NFL in passing attempts last season, so his attempts can't drop much if he stays healthy... and he's never missed a game (college or pro).

Projection: 325/500 (65%), 3950 passing yards (7.9 ypa), 30 TDs, 10 interceptions

 

[Tanner9919]

Last year, the Chargers offense only ran 924 plays. Only 3 teams (Browns, Raiders, Lions) ran fewer. In 2007, they ran 980. In 2006, they ran 1016, though I put less stock in that season since Rivers was a first year starter and Marty was head coach, so the offensive playcalling was presumably quite different. Why did their offensive plays drop so much? Here are a few reasons:1. They hit on a lot of long gains, including a number of long scores, which shortened a lot of their scoring drives.2. Their defense regressed significantly last season -- in 2008, they were #25 in yards allowed, compared to #15 in 2007 and #10 in 2006... so they presumably allowed their opponents a lot more time of possession, thus preventing the Chargers offense from running more plays.3. With Tomlinson playing through injury, the Chargers RBs averaged 4.0 ypc last year, compared to 4.5 ypc in 2007.Better effectiveness in the running game presumably will result in at least a few more first downs, and thus more plays, and better effectiveness on defense should give the offense more opportunities. So I'm expecting 980-1000 plays. Because of LT's age and recent injury issues, plus the impressive performance by the Chargers passing game last year, I do not expect all of those extra plays to go to the running game... I think Rivers could reach 500 passing attempts for the first time.Now, that represents his opportunity. How about his effectiveness? Last season, he posted career highs in completion percentage, yards per attempt, TD percentage, and QB rating. Why? Consider:In 2006, he was a first year starter in a different and more conservative offense; he had 36 year old McCardell, Eric Parker, and Michael Turner instead of Chambers, Davis, Naanee, and Sproles; and Chambers and Floyd were not yet developed. In 2007, Rivers was adjusting to a new offense and a fair amount of turnover in offensive personnel -- McCardell, Parker, and Turner were gone, Naanee and Davis were rookies, and Sproles was back... and Chambers arrived and integrated into the offense at midseason.In 2008, Rivers was a third year starter, and for the first time was a returning starter in the same offense. He also had a better set of targets than in the previous two seasons. The 2008 season is obviously the most similar to his situation in 2009, and, in fact, his situation in 2009 should be even better, with better health for his OL, Tomlinson, Gates, and his WRs, who collectively missed several games.In college, Rivers was very good as a freshman, great as a sophomore and junior, and exploded in his senior (4th) year. I think he exploded last year, his third as an NFL starter, so I don't expect a similar jump as he had in college... but I see no reason that he can't come close to repeating his performance. And I want to note that there is significant upside here... suppose Tomlinson went down early, and the Chargers are left with rookie Gartrell Johnson and Sproles in the backfield... I could see Rivers getting 550+ attempts. Meanwhile, there isn't much downside... the Chargers were #25 in the NFL in passing attempts last season, so his attempts can't drop much if he stays healthy... and he's never missed a game (college or pro).Projection: 325/500 (65%), 3950 passing yards (7.9 ypa), 30 TDs, 10 interceptions

you sold me on Rivers! I agree with your numbers, 3950/30/10 seems about right. SD cannot run the ball as effectively as they have in the past, LT is older and slower, and Sproles is to small to be an every down RB..enter Rivers , Gates, V. Jackson..

 

[Crippler]

Last year, the Chargers offense only ran 924 plays. Only 3 teams (Browns, Raiders, Lions) ran fewer. In 2007, they ran 980. In 2006, they ran 1016, though I put less stock in that season since Rivers was a first year starter and Marty was head coach, so the offensive playcalling was presumably quite different. Why did their offensive plays drop so much? Here are a few reasons:1. They hit on a lot of long gains, including a number of long scores, which shortened a lot of their scoring drives.2. Their defense regressed significantly last season -- in 2008, they were #25 in yards allowed, compared to #15 in 2007 and #10 in 2006... so they presumably allowed their opponents a lot more time of possession, thus preventing the Chargers offense from running more plays.3. With Tomlinson playing through injury, the Chargers RBs averaged 4.0 ypc last year, compared to 4.5 ypc in 2007.Better effectiveness in the running game presumably will result in at least a few more first downs, and thus more plays, and better effectiveness on defense should give the offense more opportunities. So I'm expecting 980-1000 plays. Because of LT's age and recent injury issues, plus the impressive performance by the Chargers passing game last year, I do not expect all of those extra plays to go to the running game... I think Rivers could reach 500 passing attempts for the first time.Now, that represents his opportunity. How about his effectiveness? Last season, he posted career highs in completion percentage, yards per attempt, TD percentage, and QB rating. Why? Consider:In 2006, he was a first year starter in a different and more conservative offense; he had 36 year old McCardell, Eric Parker, and Michael Turner instead of Chambers, Davis, Naanee, and Sproles; and Chambers and Floyd were not yet developed. In 2007, Rivers was adjusting to a new offense and a fair amount of turnover in offensive personnel -- McCardell, Parker, and Turner were gone, Naanee and Davis were rookies, and Sproles was back... and Chambers arrived and integrated into the offense at midseason.In 2008, Rivers was a third year starter, and for the first time was a returning starter in the same offense. He also had a better set of targets than in the previous two seasons. The 2008 season is obviously the most similar to his situation in 2009, and, in fact, his situation in 2009 should be even better, with better health for his OL, Tomlinson, Gates, and his WRs, who collectively missed several games.In college, Rivers was very good as a freshman, great as a sophomore and junior, and exploded in his senior (4th) year. I think he exploded last year, his third as an NFL starter, so I don't expect a similar jump as he had in college... but I see no reason that he can't come close to repeating his performance. And I want to note that there is significant upside here... suppose Tomlinson went down early, and the Chargers are left with rookie Gartrell Johnson and Sproles in the backfield... I could see Rivers getting 550+ attempts. Meanwhile, there isn't much downside... the Chargers were #25 in the NFL in passing attempts last season, so his attempts can't drop much if he stays healthy... and he's never missed a game (college or pro).Projection: 325/500 (65%), 3950 passing yards (7.9 ypa), 30 TDs, 10 interceptions

Hard to improve on this analysis. Well done

 

[gheemony]

San Diego was 25th in passing attempts last year. Rivers averaged 7.1 TDs/Attempt - tops in the league. For perspective, Brees was second at 5.3 and the league average was 3.9. I don't think it's possible for him to come anywhere close to that type of efficiency. I also doubt that he'll increase his attempts. Let's assume same attempts (478) and a decreased but excellent TDs/attempt of 5.0. That's 24 TDs. I think it's really difficult to project him for 30 TDs or more. Even with improvement due to age, increased plays for SD, increased passing, etc., his TD% is likely to decrease dramatically. Look at Rothlisberger two years ago.

I don't have projections, but I don't think Rivers will live up to the high expectations. He's still a QB1, but those taking him ahead of QBs on teams that pass more are taking a gamble.

 

[Maven]

550 passing attempts? I'm sorta on the fence with Rivers. I think his success can be attributed to the fact that the defense struggled, LT was injured/lack of running attack, and the # of long big plays his WRs made down the field.

Rivers threw the ball 478 times in 08 (65%), 460 in 07 (60.2%) and 460 times in 06 (61.7%). The difference? He converted more passes and most of those went for TDs.

I liken Rivers' breakout year of 08 to Roethlisburgers 30TD year a few years ago. Roeth threw about the same amount of passes in previous years but just converted more of them to TDs. The following year he fell back... Check those stats...

I think with an improved defense and healthy LT...Rivers will throw for 460-470 passes this year.. not 500 plus. I see your possession argument but ...with a better defense...I see them RUNNING more than PASSING.

I dont think you can bank on him hitting 65% of his passes again either. He'll probably fall back to 60-63%

My stat projection? 3500yds 20-25tds.

Just my opinion.

 

[Tau837]

San Diego was 25th in passing attempts last year. Rivers averaged 7.1 TDs/Attempt - tops in the league. For perspective, Brees was second at 5.3 and the league average was 3.9. I don't think it's possible for him to come anywhere close to that type of efficiency. I also doubt that he'll increase his attempts. Let's assume same attempts (478) and a decreased but excellent TDs/attempt of 5.0. That's 24 TDs. I think it's really difficult to project him for 30 TDs or more. Even with improvement due to age, increased plays for SD, increased passing, etc., his TD% is likely to decrease dramatically. Look at Rothlisberger two years ago.I don't have projections, but I don't think Rivers will live up to the high expectations. He's still a QB1, but those taking him ahead of QBs on teams that pass more are taking a gamble.

My projection of 30 TDs in 500 attempts is 6% TD percentage, which is a substantial drop from the 7.1% he posted last season. I outlined why I think his situation is actually improved over last year - more experience, better OL health (McNeill and Goff, 2 Pro Bowlers, missed games and/or played hurt), better WR health (the WRs missed several games last year), better health for LT, better health for Gates, more experience, and third year in same offense. Rivers will have of the best collection of targets in the league when considering RBs, WRs, and TEs. I also outlined why I think he'll have more attempts.I realize most will not agree. I've always been higher on Rivers' prospects than everyone else, and I expect this year to be no different.

 

[Tau837]

550 passing attempts? I'm sorta on the fence with Rivers. I think his success can be attributed to the fact that the defense struggled, LT was injured/lack of running attack, and the # of long big plays his WRs made down the field.Rivers threw the ball 478 times in 08 (65%), 460 in 07 (60.2%) and 460 times in 06 (61.7%). The difference? He converted more passes and most of those went for TDs.I liken Rivers' breakout year of 08 to Roethlisburgers 30TD year a few years ago. Roeth threw about the same amount of passes in previous years but just converted more of them to TDs. The following year he fell back... Check those stats...I think with an improved defense and healthy LT...Rivers will throw for 460-470 passes this year.. not 500 plus. I see your possession argument but ...with a better defense...I see them RUNNING more than PASSING.I dont think you can bank on him hitting 65% of his passes again either. He'll probably fall back to 60-63%My stat projection? 3500yds 20-25tds.Just my opinion.

Did someone project 550 attempts? I said that I could see that if LT went down early but I projected 500.I'm familiar with Roethlisberger's history. I don't see a parallel just because Roethlisberger had a big TD season and slid back. I am projecting Rivers to drop by a pretty sizable margin. As for why you think he'll hit only 60-63% of his passes this season, what do you base that on? He's better now, and his targets are better now. His OL and running game should also be better. Why do you assume he will regress?

 

[gheemony]

San Diego was 25th in passing attempts last year. Rivers averaged 7.1 TDs/Attempt - tops in the league. For perspective, Brees was second at 5.3 and the league average was 3.9. I don't think it's possible for him to come anywhere close to that type of efficiency. I also doubt that he'll increase his attempts. Let's assume same attempts (478) and a decreased but excellent TDs/attempt of 5.0. That's 24 TDs. I think it's really difficult to project him for 30 TDs or more. Even with improvement due to age, increased plays for SD, increased passing, etc., his TD% is likely to decrease dramatically. Look at Rothlisberger two years ago.I don't have projections, but I don't think Rivers will live up to the high expectations. He's still a QB1, but those taking him ahead of QBs on teams that pass more are taking a gamble.

My projection of 30 TDs in 500 attempts is 6% TD percentage, which is a substantial drop from the 7.1% he posted last season. I outlined why I think his situation is actually improved over last year - more experience, better OL health (McNeill and Goff, 2 Pro Bowlers, missed games and/or played hurt), better WR health (the WRs missed several games last year), better health for LT, better health for Gates, more experience, and third year in same offense. Rivers will have of the best collection of targets in the league when considering RBs, WRs, and TEs. I also outlined why I think he'll have more attempts.I realize most will not agree. I've always been higher on Rivers' prospects than everyone else, and I expect this year to be no different.

While 6% is a substantial drop from 7.1%, it is a even more substantial variation from the league average and even the average for elite QBs. I don't think it's realistic to project 6%. I would definitely bet the under on that projection. I'd even consider taking the under on 5%.I believed the same re Big Ben last year and got burned. I don't think I'm over-reacting. 16 games is a small sample size that can be subject to great variations. One season doesn't establish a norm for a career.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I liken Rivers' breakout year of 08 to Roethlisburgers 30TD year a few years ago. Roeth threw about the same amount of passes in previous years but just converted more of them to TDs. The following year he fell back... Check those stats...

This is a bit misleading, and you might want to check those same stats .Roethlisberger did not just "fall back" in 2008. His TDs per attempt in 2008 (3.6%) were way below his career average (5.8%). You're just looking at Roethlisberger's TD totals and seeing 17, 17, and 18 his first three years but not taking into account that his first two years he had only 295 and 268 pass attempts respectively.

 

[Tau837]

San Diego was 25th in passing attempts last year. Rivers averaged 7.1 TDs/Attempt - tops in the league. For perspective, Brees was second at 5.3 and the league average was 3.9. I don't think it's possible for him to come anywhere close to that type of efficiency. I also doubt that he'll increase his attempts. Let's assume same attempts (478) and a decreased but excellent TDs/attempt of 5.0. That's 24 TDs. I think it's really difficult to project him for 30 TDs or more. Even with improvement due to age, increased plays for SD, increased passing, etc., his TD% is likely to decrease dramatically. Look at Rothlisberger two years ago.

I don't have projections, but I don't think Rivers will live up to the high expectations. He's still a QB1, but those taking him ahead of QBs on teams that pass more are taking a gamble.

My projection of 30 TDs in 500 attempts is 6% TD percentage, which is a substantial drop from the 7.1% he posted last season. I outlined why I think his situation is actually improved over last year - more experience, better OL health (McNeill and Goff, 2 Pro Bowlers, missed games and/or played hurt), better WR health (the WRs missed several games last year), better health for LT, better health for Gates, more experience, and third year in same offense. Rivers will have of the best collection of targets in the league when considering RBs, WRs, and TEs. I also outlined why I think he'll have more attempts.I realize most will not agree. I've always been higher on Rivers' prospects than everyone else, and I expect this year to be no different.

While 6% is a substantial drop from 7.1%, it is a even more substantial variation from the league average and even the average for elite QBs. I don't think it's realistic to project 6%. I would definitely bet the under on that projection. I'd even consider taking the under on 5%.I believed the same re Big Ben last year and got burned. I don't think I'm over-reacting. 16 games is a small sample size that can be subject to great variations. One season doesn't establish a norm for a career.

We can agree to disagree, but I had to comment on the bolded. Why would I want to compare Rivers to the league average when he is clearly a better than average QB in a very good situation? Comparing him to the "elite" QBs is more reasonable, but then IMO the sample set is small enough that it makes better sense to just examine and project each situation individually, exactly what I did for Rivers here.If you want to take the under on 5%, let's make a wager.

 

[Maven]

The Chargers scored a league-high 72 percent of their touchdowns last year on passes rather than runs (34 versus 13). A large part of that lopsided ratio was due simply to their inability to run the ball. If San DIego improves its ground game, it will have a more balanced offense - meaning Rivers wil finish with fewer yards and touchdowns.

 

[Tau837]

The Chargers scored a league-high 72 percent of their touchdowns last year on passes rather than runs (34 versus 13). A large part of that lopsided ratio was due simply to their inability to run the ball. If San DIego improves its ground game, it will have a more balanced offense - meaning Rivers wil finish with fewer yards and touchdowns.

They were #19 in ypc and #20 in rushing attempts. It's not like they were at the bottom in effectiveness.

 

[gheemony]

San Diego was 25th in passing attempts last year. Rivers averaged 7.1 TDs/Attempt - tops in the league. For perspective, Brees was second at 5.3 and the league average was 3.9. I don't think it's possible for him to come anywhere close to that type of efficiency. I also doubt that he'll increase his attempts. Let's assume same attempts (478) and a decreased but excellent TDs/attempt of 5.0. That's 24 TDs. I think it's really difficult to project him for 30 TDs or more. Even with improvement due to age, increased plays for SD, increased passing, etc., his TD% is likely to decrease dramatically. Look at Rothlisberger two years ago.

I don't have projections, but I don't think Rivers will live up to the high expectations. He's still a QB1, but those taking him ahead of QBs on teams that pass more are taking a gamble.

My projection of 30 TDs in 500 attempts is 6% TD percentage, which is a substantial drop from the 7.1% he posted last season. I outlined why I think his situation is actually improved over last year - more experience, better OL health (McNeill and Goff, 2 Pro Bowlers, missed games and/or played hurt), better WR health (the WRs missed several games last year), better health for LT, better health for Gates, more experience, and third year in same offense. Rivers will have of the best collection of targets in the league when considering RBs, WRs, and TEs. I also outlined why I think he'll have more attempts.I realize most will not agree. I've always been higher on Rivers' prospects than everyone else, and I expect this year to be no different.

While 6% is a substantial drop from 7.1%, it is a even more substantial variation from the league average and even the average for elite QBs. I don't think it's realistic to project 6%. I would definitely bet the under on that projection. I'd even consider taking the under on 5%.I believed the same re Big Ben last year and got burned. I don't think I'm over-reacting. 16 games is a small sample size that can be subject to great variations. One season doesn't establish a norm for a career.

We can agree to disagree, but I had to comment on the bolded. Why would I want to compare Rivers to the league average when he is clearly a better than average QB in a very good situation? Comparing him to the "elite" QBs is more reasonable, but then IMO the sample set is small enough that it makes better sense to just examine and project each situation individually, exactly what I did for Rivers here.If you want to take the under on 5%, let's make a wager.

You'd have to give me odds. Willing to wager on 6%?

 

[Tau837]

San Diego was 25th in passing attempts last year. Rivers averaged 7.1 TDs/Attempt - tops in the league. For perspective, Brees was second at 5.3 and the league average was 3.9. I don't think it's possible for him to come anywhere close to that type of efficiency. I also doubt that he'll increase his attempts. Let's assume same attempts (478) and a decreased but excellent TDs/attempt of 5.0. That's 24 TDs. I think it's really difficult to project him for 30 TDs or more. Even with improvement due to age, increased plays for SD, increased passing, etc., his TD% is likely to decrease dramatically. Look at Rothlisberger two years ago.

I don't have projections, but I don't think Rivers will live up to the high expectations. He's still a QB1, but those taking him ahead of QBs on teams that pass more are taking a gamble.

My projection of 30 TDs in 500 attempts is 6% TD percentage, which is a substantial drop from the 7.1% he posted last season. I outlined why I think his situation is actually improved over last year - more experience, better OL health (McNeill and Goff, 2 Pro Bowlers, missed games and/or played hurt), better WR health (the WRs missed several games last year), better health for LT, better health for Gates, more experience, and third year in same offense. Rivers will have of the best collection of targets in the league when considering RBs, WRs, and TEs. I also outlined why I think he'll have more attempts.I realize most will not agree. I've always been higher on Rivers' prospects than everyone else, and I expect this year to be no different.

While 6% is a substantial drop from 7.1%, it is a even more substantial variation from the league average and even the average for elite QBs. I don't think it's realistic to project 6%. I would definitely bet the under on that projection. I'd even consider taking the under on 5%.I believed the same re Big Ben last year and got burned. I don't think I'm over-reacting. 16 games is a small sample size that can be subject to great variations. One season doesn't establish a norm for a career.

We can agree to disagree, but I had to comment on the bolded. Why would I want to compare Rivers to the league average when he is clearly a better than average QB in a very good situation? Comparing him to the "elite" QBs is more reasonable, but then IMO the sample set is small enough that it makes better sense to just examine and project each situation individually, exactly what I did for Rivers here.If you want to take the under on 5%, let's make a wager.

You'd have to give me odds. Willing to wager on 6%?

No. I realize I'm making an aggressive projection at 6%. However, I think 5% is a lock, barring major catastrophe (like multiple serious injuries) in the Chargers offense.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Rivers' 7.1% ratio was very high last season -- the 11th best mark by a QB with 300+ attempts since 1987.

The top 30 QBs, with a minimum of 300+ attempts in a season since '87, averaged 7.14 TD/100ATT as a group and as an average of their individual averages. Of those 30 QBs, 21 would have at least 300+ attempts for the same team the following season. In the initial season, the group averaged 7.11 TD/100ATT (and 7.12 as an average of the averages) in the first season and then 5.23 TD/100ATT the next season (and 5.23 as an average of the individual averages).

So yes, projecting 7.1 would seem silly. Projecting 6.0 seems pretty high, but it's certainly not unlikely. If we want to look at QBs who were between 26 and 28 years old during the big TD/ATT season (Rivers was 27 last year), we drop our sample to just 8 QBs. Those QBs averaged 6.11 TD/ATT as a group, and 6.03 TD/100ATT as an average of the average.

I'd probably put Rivers at around 5.7 TD/100ATT for next season, based on the above analysis, without giving any thought whatsoever to Rivers' specific situation.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

The man put up beastly numbers in 2008 with a crippled Gates and LT. Imagine if those two guys return to form. Oh my lord. We might have just scratched the surface of the studliness that is Philip Rivers.

 

[Tau837]

Rivers' 7.1% ratio was very high last season -- the 11th best mark by a QB with 300+ attempts since 1987.The top 30 QBs, with a minimum of 300+ attempts in a season since '87, averaged 7.14 TD/100ATT as a group and as an average of their individual averages. Of those 30 QBs, 21 would have at least 300+ attempts for the same team the following season. In the initial season, the group averaged 7.11 TD/100ATT (and 7.12 as an average of the averages) in the first season and then 5.23 TD/100ATT the next season (and 5.23 as an average of the individual averages).So yes, projecting 7.1 would seem silly. Projecting 6.0 seems pretty high, but it's certainly not unlikely. If we want to look at QBs who were between 26 and 28 years old during the big TD/ATT season (Rivers was 27 last year), we drop our sample to just 8 QBs. Those QBs averaged 6.11 TD/ATT as a group, and 6.03 TD/100ATT as an average of the average. I'd probably put Rivers at around 5.7 TD/100ATT for next season, based on the above analysis, without giving any thought whatsoever to Rivers' specific situation.

That implies that once you did give thought to Rivers' specific situation, you might bump it up a bit, assuming you concluded it was a good situation (as I believe). So I'll take that as support for my projection.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Rivers' 7.1% ratio was very high last season -- the 11th best mark by a QB with 300+ attempts since 1987.The top 30 QBs, with a minimum of 300+ attempts in a season since '87, averaged 7.14 TD/100ATT as a group and as an average of their individual averages. Of those 30 QBs, 21 would have at least 300+ attempts for the same team the following season. In the initial season, the group averaged 7.11 TD/100ATT (and 7.12 as an average of the averages) in the first season and then 5.23 TD/100ATT the next season (and 5.23 as an average of the individual averages).So yes, projecting 7.1 would seem silly. Projecting 6.0 seems pretty high, but it's certainly not unlikely. If we want to look at QBs who were between 26 and 28 years old during the big TD/ATT season (Rivers was 27 last year), we drop our sample to just 8 QBs. Those QBs averaged 6.11 TD/ATT as a group, and 6.03 TD/100ATT as an average of the average. I'd probably put Rivers at around 5.7 TD/100ATT for next season, based on the above analysis, without giving any thought whatsoever to Rivers' specific situation.

That implies that once you did give thought to Rivers' specific situation, you might bump it up a bit, assuming you concluded it was a good situation (as I believe). So I'll take that as support for my projection.

To be clear, just about all of the guys in the data set were in "good situations." When I meant Rivers' specific situation, I meant the change in his situation from '08 to '09, relative to the average change of the guys in question from '08 to '09. Is the improvement in Rivers' situation from '08 to '09 better than your typical turnover, is the question to ask. Maybe it is.

 

[baconisgood]

The Chargers scored a league-high 72 percent of their touchdowns last year on passes rather than runs (34 versus 13). A large part of that lopsided ratio was due simply to their inability to run the ball. If San DIego improves its ground game, it will have a more balanced offense - meaning Rivers wil finish with fewer yards and touchdowns.

They were #19 in ypc and #20 in rushing attempts. It's not like they were at the bottom in effectiveness.

In terms of Y/G given upDenver- 27thKansas City- 30thOakland- 31stTheir division gave them a huge boost to their raw running numbers- 48% of their total rushing yards cam in those 6 games - they also got to play the colts and saints and put up 120 and 110 yards against those two teams. I think it is safe to say that the Chargers were in the bottom 3rd in effectiveness.

 

[baconisgood]

That implies that once you did give thought to Rivers' specific situation, you might bump it up a bit, assuming you concluded it was a good situation (as I believe). So I'll take that as support for my projection. thumbup1.gif

The man put up beastly numbers in 2008 with a crippled Gates and LT. Imagine if those two guys return to form. Oh my lord. We might have just scratched the surface of the studliness that is Philip Rivers.

If LT returns to effectiveness Rivers' TD % will drop, not increase. Teams sscore TDs largely from inside the 20 and if you look at historically high TD% seasons you usually see problems in the running game. For example Roeth's aberration two years ago Pittsburg had a total of 9 rushing TD- with Big Ben taking 2 of those in himself. The Chargers were 2nd in the league in pts scored and are unlikely to increase that total significantly. Any improvement in the running game will almost certainly take TDs away from Rivers. Not to mention have SM back on D should help keep games lower scoring overall for them. Long story short Rivers is much more likely to have a 26-28 TD year than to have a 32-34 TD year or even higher.

 

[Tau837]

If LT returns to effectiveness Rivers' TD % will drop, not increase. Teams sscore TDs largely from inside the 20 and if you look at historically high TD% seasons you usually see problems in the running game. For example Roeth's aberration two years ago Pittsburg had a total of 9 rushing TD- with Big Ben taking 2 of those in himself. The Chargers were 2nd in the league in pts scored and are unlikely to increase that total significantly. Any improvement in the running game will almost certainly take TDs away from Rivers. Not to mention have SM back on D should help keep games lower scoring overall for them. Long story short Rivers is much more likely to have a 26-28 TD year than to have a 32-34 TD year or even higher.

Has anyone in this thread said that Rivers' TD percentage will increase? I don't think so.Has anyone in this thread said that Rivers will have 32 or more TDs this season? I don't think so.

 

[SproutDaddy]

I'm not one on projecting numbers, but I don't get a lot of these posts. I think one thing most are forgetting is the pass-happy/QB-friendly offense that Norv Turner runs. LT is one of the greatest, but anyone who thinks that he hasn't topped out is in denial. While I do think LT can improve on last years #'s, Rivers still has room to grow. He can and should top 4000 yds as well as get around 28-32 TDs in that weak D-oriented division.

 

[David Yudkin]

Turner has been great at generating big running numbers, but passing totals not so much. Here's the breakdown over his career as a Head Coach of Offensive Coordinator (year, team, team passing yards, team passing TD):

91 DAL 3617 16

92 DAL 3597 23

93 DAL 3617 18

94 WAS 3524 25

95 WAS 3496 16

96 WAS 3453 12

97 WAS 3581 22

98 WAS 3724 24

99 WAS 4112 26

00 WAS 3892 18

01 SD 3685 16

02 MIA 3069 18

03 MIA 3001 17

04 OAK 4019 24

05 OAK 3883 21

06 SF 2890 16

07 SD 3175 22

08 SD 4009 34

AVG 3575 20

Clearly last year was well above average for a Turner-led team.

 

[gheemony]

This thread caused me to look much deeper at Phillip Rivers. I'm coming around to the opinion that he can get 30+ touchdowns. I think their schedule is ridiculously easy and Rivers is at an age where continued improved would not be surprising. I don't predict specific numbers (I focus on estimates of fantasy points), but my projections assume that Rivers can get close to 30 TDs.

 

[deliverator]

True, none of those Norv Turner teams put up consistently good passing numbers, but I argue that he never had a quarterback as good as Rivers on those teams. Washington, Miami, and Oakland had scrubs during that period. He had Troy Aikman in the early 90's, by far the most overrated QB in history. In this case I think Rivers' talent is more important than what completely different Turner-led teams have done in the past.

3,800 yds

27 TDs

 

[Eminence]

24 Touchdowns / 9 ints / 3,400 Yards

 

[Tau837]

I'm going back through my spotlight posts for this year and had to bump these.

Projection: 325/500 (65%), 3950 passing yards (7.9 ypa), 30 TDs, 10 interceptions

Actual numbers: 317/486 (65.2%), 4254 passing yards (8.8 ypa), 28 TDs, 9 interceptionsNot bad... I shorted him a bit on my ypa expectations, but otherwise pretty much nailed it. And if he didn't sit out most of the last game, he probably would have been even closer on the completions, attempts, and TDs.

San Diego was 25th in passing attempts last year. Rivers averaged 7.1 TDs/Attempt - tops in the league. For perspective, Brees was second at 5.3 and the league average was 3.9. I don't think it's possible for him to come anywhere close to that type of efficiency. I also doubt that he'll increase his attempts. Let's assume same attempts (478) and a decreased but excellent TDs/attempt of 5.0. That's 24 TDs. I think it's really difficult to project him for 30 TDs or more. Even with improvement due to age, increased plays for SD, increased passing, etc., his TD% is likely to decrease dramatically. Look at Rothlisberger two years ago.I don't have projections, but I don't think Rivers will live up to the high expectations. He's still a QB1, but those taking him ahead of QBs on teams that pass more are taking a gamble.

My projection of 30 TDs in 500 attempts is 6% TD percentage, which is a substantial drop from the 7.1% he posted last season. I outlined why I think his situation is actually improved over last year - more experience, better OL health (McNeill and Goff, 2 Pro Bowlers, missed games and/or played hurt), better WR health (the WRs missed several games last year), better health for LT, better health for Gates, more experience, and third year in same offense. Rivers will have of the best collection of targets in the league when considering RBs, WRs, and TEs. I also outlined why I think he'll have more attempts.I realize most will not agree. I've always been higher on Rivers' prospects than everyone else, and I expect this year to be no different.

So he ended up at 5.8%. Doesn't make my 6% projection seem so outlandish now.

 

[BoltBacker]

I'm going back through my spotlight posts for this year and had to bump these.

Projection: 325/500 (65%), 3950 passing yards (7.9 ypa), 30 TDs, 10 interceptions

Actual numbers: 317/486 (65.2%), 4254 passing yards (8.8 ypa), 28 TDs, 9 interceptionsNot bad... I shorted him a bit on my ypa expectations, but otherwise pretty much nailed it. And if he didn't sit out most of the last game, he probably would have been even closer on the completions, attempts, and TDs.

Great call.I wasn't quite as confident on the yardage #'s in part due to the fact I thought his passing attempts would likely drop rather than increase but I thought it was strange that so many people expected such a big dip in TD's from last season when Gates hobbled through 2008. I actually thought Sproles would play a much bigger role in the passing game than he ended up playing.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Rivers' 7.1% ratio was very high last season -- the 11th best mark by a QB with 300+ attempts since 1987.The top 30 QBs, with a minimum of 300+ attempts in a season since '87, averaged 7.14 TD/100ATT as a group and as an average of their individual averages. Of those 30 QBs, 21 would have at least 300+ attempts for the same team the following season. In the initial season, the group averaged 7.11 TD/100ATT (and 7.12 as an average of the averages) in the first season and then 5.23 TD/100ATT the next season (and 5.23 as an average of the individual averages).So yes, projecting 7.1 would seem silly. Projecting 6.0 seems pretty high, but it's certainly not unlikely. If we want to look at QBs who were between 26 and 28 years old during the big TD/ATT season (Rivers was 27 last year), we drop our sample to just 8 QBs. Those QBs averaged 6.11 TD/ATT as a group, and 6.03 TD/100ATT as an average of the average. I'd probably put Rivers at around 5.7 TD/100ATT for next season, based on the above analysis, without giving any thought whatsoever to Rivers' specific situation.

Way off gb. Rivers finished at 5.76 TD/100ATT.

 

[Tau837]

Rivers' 7.1% ratio was very high last season -- the 11th best mark by a QB with 300+ attempts since 1987.The top 30 QBs, with a minimum of 300+ attempts in a season since '87, averaged 7.14 TD/100ATT as a group and as an average of their individual averages. Of those 30 QBs, 21 would have at least 300+ attempts for the same team the following season. In the initial season, the group averaged 7.11 TD/100ATT (and 7.12 as an average of the averages) in the first season and then 5.23 TD/100ATT the next season (and 5.23 as an average of the individual averages).So yes, projecting 7.1 would seem silly. Projecting 6.0 seems pretty high, but it's certainly not unlikely. If we want to look at QBs who were between 26 and 28 years old during the big TD/ATT season (Rivers was 27 last year), we drop our sample to just 8 QBs. Those QBs averaged 6.11 TD/ATT as a group, and 6.03 TD/100ATT as an average of the average. I'd probably put Rivers at around 5.7 TD/100ATT for next season, based on the above analysis, without giving any thought whatsoever to Rivers' specific situation.

Way off gb. Rivers finished at 5.76 TD/100ATT.

Yeah, but once he gave thought to Rivers' specific situation, he would have adjusted from 5.7 to 5.76. He just forgot to come back and post it.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Rivers' 7.1% ratio was very high last season -- the 11th best mark by a QB with 300+ attempts since 1987.The top 30 QBs, with a minimum of 300+ attempts in a season since '87, averaged 7.14 TD/100ATT as a group and as an average of their individual averages. Of those 30 QBs, 21 would have at least 300+ attempts for the same team the following season. In the initial season, the group averaged 7.11 TD/100ATT (and 7.12 as an average of the averages) in the first season and then 5.23 TD/100ATT the next season (and 5.23 as an average of the individual averages).So yes, projecting 7.1 would seem silly. Projecting 6.0 seems pretty high, but it's certainly not unlikely. If we want to look at QBs who were between 26 and 28 years old during the big TD/ATT season (Rivers was 27 last year), we drop our sample to just 8 QBs. Those QBs averaged 6.11 TD/ATT as a group, and 6.03 TD/100ATT as an average of the average. I'd probably put Rivers at around 5.7 TD/100ATT for next season, based on the above analysis, without giving any thought whatsoever to Rivers' specific situation.

Way off gb. Rivers finished at 5.76 TD/100ATT.

Yeah, but once he gave thought to Rivers' specific situation, he would have adjusted from 5.7 to 5.76. He just forgot to come back and post it.

It's pretty ridiculous that he still has any credibility on these boards after a whiff like that.

 

[gheemony]

Rivers' 7.1% ratio was very high last season -- the 11th best mark by a QB with 300+ attempts since 1987.The top 30 QBs, with a minimum of 300+ attempts in a season since '87, averaged 7.14 TD/100ATT as a group and as an average of their individual averages. Of those 30 QBs, 21 would have at least 300+ attempts for the same team the following season. In the initial season, the group averaged 7.11 TD/100ATT (and 7.12 as an average of the averages) in the first season and then 5.23 TD/100ATT the next season (and 5.23 as an average of the individual averages).So yes, projecting 7.1 would seem silly. Projecting 6.0 seems pretty high, but it's certainly not unlikely. If we want to look at QBs who were between 26 and 28 years old during the big TD/ATT season (Rivers was 27 last year), we drop our sample to just 8 QBs. Those QBs averaged 6.11 TD/ATT as a group, and 6.03 TD/100ATT as an average of the average. I'd probably put Rivers at around 5.7 TD/100ATT for next season, based on the above analysis, without giving any thought whatsoever to Rivers' specific situation.

Way off gb. Rivers finished at 5.76 TD/100ATT.

I want full projections from Chase next year!