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Player Spotlight: Santana Moss (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Santana Moss, WR, Washington Redskins

Player Page Link: Santana Moss Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
I am excited about the prospects for Santana Moss in 09. Despite the search for a new QB, Jason Campbell is still there and I believe we will see a major improvement in the passing game for the Redskins. Santana Moss will be the primary recipient of that improvement. Santana has had an up and down career, but he is a perfect match for the skill set of Campbell.

Santana averaged almost nine targets per game in 08, despite having one game with only one target and four the next. In the other 14 games, he actually averaged 9.5 targets per game. With the other receivers being ARE and the two second year guys, I see Moss remaining the focus of Campbell's WR targets. Campbell completed 62% of his passes in 08 and Moss caught only 57% of his targets. I think that the 09 targets will remain close to the same level and the percentage of completions will rise.

Santana Moss will be an outstanding value pick at his current ADP of WR26 and 71 overall.

Santana Moss 140 targets 85 catches 63% 1232 yards 14.0 ypc 8 TDs

 
Moss has never followed up a 1000+ yard season with another one. I'm betting he won't do it in 2009, either..

70/924/5

probably one of the best 'sell-high' candidates you're ever going to see in dynasty leagues..trade him now while he's still hyped as a top WR...

 
I just don't think JC is a starter in this league. Moss is a good WR but he just doesn't have the right QB. 75/950/5

 
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Unfortunately, Moss' production is extremely dependent on things other than himself. I guess that can be said about pretty much anyone. But, with Moss, he's dependent on things that are difficult to predict. Does Jason Campbell, and the offense as a whole, progress in year 2 of Zorn? Will the OL be good enough to give Campbell time to get the ball to Moss? Will another WR step up and take targets away?

Right now, Moss and Cooley and the clear 1a and 1b options in the passing game. I'm predicting (hoping?) the passing game takes a step forward this year with slightly better OL play and another year in the Zorn offense. However, I also predict (hope?) that Devin Thomas and/or Malcolm Kelly will actually provide some production.

So, overall, I see Moss being what Moss has usually been: 72-970-6.

 
Options like Moss being taken around pick 70 and WR 25 are why you need to make sure you have at least two WR's at this point in the draft so you can start picking players at other positions.

 
When I look at Santana Moss' down seasons (2004, 2006, 2007) and compare them to his up seasons (2005, 2008), the things that stand out to me are (1) he missed games in each of the down seasons, (2) his QB was "in transition" for those down seasons. Also, for 2006 at least, he lost Portis as a running threat, which I suspect allowed defenses to key on him. Also, during all these years, I don't think he's ever had a reliable WR playing opposite to pull any coverage. Yet during all that time, he's been a pretty reliable WR2/WR3. Also, he gets lots of targets when healthy (2008-2005: 11th, 24th, 34th, 13th). What's changed now? Campbell (while not great) is a decent QB in a relatively stable situation (at least for 2009). I'm hopeful he might be a little more aggressive in 2009. Between Cooley/ARE/Thomas/Kelly, there should be some potential to keep DBs honest and give Moss some room to make plays. On the down side, if Cooley/Thomas/Kelly play well, they should limit the number of TDs available to Moss.

Optimistic: 82 receptions, 1250 yards, 9 TDs

Realistic: 78 receptions, 1100 yards, 7 TDs

Pessimistic: 74 receptions, 950 yards, 5 TDs

 
Moss has never followed up a 1000+ yard season with another one. I'm betting he won't do it in 2009, either..70/924/5
1000 is just a number. Your 924 isn't much more below 1000 than his 1044 last year was above 1000. Your projections really aren't a huge decline from last year.I'm not saying your projections are bad, just that they don't really matchup with your apparent feeling that he's headed for a significant drop. Your projections are pretty much his career average.
probably one of the best 'sell-high' candidates you're ever going to see in dynasty leagues..trade him now while he's still hyped as a top WR...
I'm not sure how he's a sell high candidate. I doubt anyone is willing to give up much for Moss. He'll be projected as a low WR2/high WR3 and most people see him as being inconsistent.
 

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