Player Spotlight: Steve Smith (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Steve Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers

Player Page Link: Steve Smith Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

Steve Smith is a punk, but a very good punk. Don't expect 18 YPR again, but do expect a top 5-10 WR.

95 Catches

1330 Yards Receiving

14.0 YPR

9 TDs

 

[Ripleys]

Top 3 WR this year, right it down.

Randy

Smitty

Calvin

 

[rzrback77]

I really like Steve Smith for 09. I think that the Carolina passing game and Jake Delhomme should improve over last season. Steve Smith also has an impressive history on his side. Over the past four seasons, in an offense that relied on the running game, he has averaged 9.6 targets per game. Combine that with his 62% reception rate, that projects to 154 targets and 95 receptions. Assign him a 14.0 ypc and that comes out to 1330 yards. I think that the Carolina passing attack will be improved over last season and he should reach the average numbers easily. Its entirely possible that he has a higher than 14.0 ypc and scores over his 8 TD average.

I really like the fact that he has slid down the ADP list some from last season and has an even better chance to provide solid value.

Steve Smith 160 targets (10.0 per game) 100 receptions 1450 yards 14.5 ypc and 10 TDs

 

[Chase Stuart]

It's been two years since Jason, Doug and I debated the value of Steve Smith.

In the summer of '07, I said he was my WR1 because:

Smith was dominant in 2005, scoring 237 fantasy points and finishing as the top fantasy WR. After averaging 14.8 FP/G during the regular season, he averaged 20.4 FP/G during the playoffs.

Last year [2006], Smith missed two games early in the season, and Jake Delhomme missed three games late in the season. In the other 11 games, Smith totaled 73 receptions for 1,043 yards and 8 TDs, and threw in another 66/1 on the ground. That’s an average of 15.0 FP/G, which is even higher than his stellar ‘05 season. Is it appropriate to ignore the other five games? Chris Weinke was absolutely atrocious last year, and I don’t think projecting Smith in ‘07 off of what he did with Weinke is going to help you make an accurate prediction. While the two missed games are certainly a concern, I don’t think Smith should be downgraded much due to injury risk.

The last 30 times that Steve Smith and Jake Delhomme were on the field together, Smith totaled 3,193 yards and 24 scores. That 15.44 FP/G average is incredible, and no other WR in the league will be able to match that in 2007. While we don’t know that Smith can, not enough has changed in Carolina for me to think that a 28-year old Steve Smith won’t once again be gaining over 100 yards per game.

What's happened since then? In 2007, Jake Delhomme played in just three games. Smith averaged 17.6 FP/G in those games. In '08, Smith played in 14 games, and Delhomme played in every game. Smith averaged 13.0 FP/G.So to recap, here's how Smith has done in every season for the past four years, in games where Jake Delhomme has played:

2005: 14.8 FP/G (16 games)

2006: 15.0 FP/G (11 games)

2007: 17.6 FP/G (3 games)

2008: 13.0 FP/G (14 games)

Now it's true, both Smith and Delhomme have had trouble staying on the field. I get that. But in the past 44 regular season games where he and Delhomme were healthy, Smith has averaged 14.5 FP/G. He just turned 30, so age isn't a concern. And last year, I think his numbers were "low" because of the great CAR running game and defense, something that is unlikely to duplicate itself in such a dominant fashion. In other words, seeing Smith put up his typical 15.0 FP/G with Delhomme in the lineup would not be surprising. And there are very few guys who can do that.

I get having Moss, Calvin, Fitz, AJ or even Wayne ahead of Smith. But I don't think any of them are far ahead of Smith. If you group your WRs in tiers, Smith is absolutely in that top tier. He's a lock for 200 FP if he and Delhomme stay healthy, and if they both play in 16 games, I don't think there's any way Smith is outside of the top 3 WRs. He's become a less sexy pick in recent years, but he's still arguably the most dominant WR in the league. He's also very consistent, as there's no one better at getting yards than Smith. Doing the same analysis as above:

2005: 97.7 receiving YPG

2006: 94.8

2007: 93.7

2008: 101.5

Add in his rushing, and he'll give you 100 total yards per game.

 

[Instinctive]

It's been two years since Jason, Doug and I debated the value of Steve Smith.

In the summer of '07, I said he was my WR1 because:

Smith was dominant in 2005, scoring 237 fantasy points and finishing as the top fantasy WR. After averaging 14.8 FP/G during the regular season, he averaged 20.4 FP/G during the playoffs.

Last year [2006], Smith missed two games early in the season, and Jake Delhomme missed three games late in the season. In the other 11 games, Smith totaled 73 receptions for 1,043 yards and 8 TDs, and threw in another 66/1 on the ground. That’s an average of 15.0 FP/G, which is even higher than his stellar ‘05 season. Is it appropriate to ignore the other five games? Chris Weinke was absolutely atrocious last year, and I don’t think projecting Smith in ‘07 off of what he did with Weinke is going to help you make an accurate prediction. While the two missed games are certainly a concern, I don’t think Smith should be downgraded much due to injury risk.

The last 30 times that Steve Smith and Jake Delhomme were on the field together, Smith totaled 3,193 yards and 24 scores. That 15.44 FP/G average is incredible, and no other WR in the league will be able to match that in 2007. While we don’t know that Smith can, not enough has changed in Carolina for me to think that a 28-year old Steve Smith won’t once again be gaining over 100 yards per game.

What's happened since then? In 2007, Jake Delhomme played in just three games. Smith averaged 17.6 FP/G in those games. In '08, Smith played in 14 games, and Delhomme played in every game. Smith averaged 13.0 FP/G.So to recap, here's how Smith has done in every season for the past four years, in games where Jake Delhomme has played:

2005: 14.8 FP/G (16 games)

2006: 15.0 FP/G (11 games)

2007: 17.6 FP/G (3 games)

2008: 13.0 FP/G (14 games)

Now it's true, both Smith and Delhomme have had trouble staying on the field. I get that. But in the past 44 regular season games where he and Delhomme were healthy, Smith has averaged 14.5 FP/G. He just turned 30, so age isn't a concern. And last year, I think his numbers were "low" because of the great CAR running game and defense, something that is unlikely to duplicate itself in such a dominant fashion. In other words, seeing Smith put up his typical 15.0 FP/G with Delhomme in the lineup would not be surprising. And there are very few guys who can do that.

I get having Moss, Calvin, Fitz, AJ or even Wayne ahead of Smith. But I don't think any of them are far ahead of Smith. If you group your WRs in tiers, Smith is absolutely in that top tier. He's a lock for 200 FP if he and Delhomme stay healthy, and if they both play in 16 games, I don't think there's any way Smith is outside of the top 3 WRs. He's become a less sexy pick in recent years, but he's still arguably the most dominant WR in the league. He's also very consistent, as there's no one better at getting yards than Smith. Doing the same analysis as above:

2005: 97.7 receiving YPG

2006: 94.8

2007: 93.7

2008: 101.5

Add in his rushing, and he'll give you 100 total yards per game.

All extremely good points, and I would also like to add the dimension of the goal line play CAR runs a few times every season, especially when they successfully run the ball: Smith is at WR, Delhomme quick snaps and pops it to him coming in, and he takes a step or two around his blocking TE into the endzone while the RB dives into the pile. The way they sometimes fake it and other times pass it makes it extremely efficient and, as you saw in the playoffs, often an easy TD for MR. Smith.

 

[puckalicious]

It was frustrating last year watching Smith get tackled close to the goal line after a long catch & run. Maybe he's lost a step, or maybe it was just luck that led to so many 1 yd TDs for Williams.

I went back and looked at the play by play for last year to see how many times he was tackled at the 5 or closer:

Week 8: opp 15, pass for 11 yds

Week 12: opp 32, pass for 31 yds

Week 12: opp 27, pass for 22 yds

Week 13: opp 37, pass for 36 yds

Week 13: own 45, pass for 54 yds

Week 14: opp 9, pass for 7 yds

Week 16: opp 13, pass for 10 yds

Week 16: opp 3, pass for 2 yds

(and 1 in week 17 that was 6 yds away)

This is just ridiculous!! There were 4 times he was at the 1. He could have easily had 10+ TDs last year instead of 6. He finished 5th last year while missing 2 games, so I don't feel it is a stretch at all to project him to be top 3 this year.

90/1400/10

 

[bcr8f]

It was frustrating last year watching Smith get tackled close to the goal line after a long catch & run. Maybe he's lost a step, or maybe it was just luck that led to so many 1 yd TDs for Williams.I went back and looked at the play by play for last year to see how many times he was tackled at the 5 or closer:Week 8: opp 15, pass for 11 ydsWeek 12: opp 32, pass for 31 ydsWeek 12: opp 27, pass for 22 ydsWeek 13: opp 37, pass for 36 ydsWeek 13: own 45, pass for 54 ydsWeek 14: opp 9, pass for 7 ydsWeek 16: opp 13, pass for 10 ydsWeek 16: opp 3, pass for 2 yds(and 1 in week 17 that was 6 yds away)This is just ridiculous!! There were 4 times he was at the 1. He could have easily had 10+ TDs last year instead of 6. He finished 5th last year while missing 2 games, so I don't feel it is a stretch at all to project him to be top 3 this year.90/1400/10

He would have had 1621 yards(#1) if you project out his 101 yards per game to 16 games. Even missing those games he finished only 10 yards behind Fitz.

 

[Tanner9919]

I really like Steve Smith for 09. I think that the Carolina passing game and Jake Delhomme should improve over last season. Steve Smith also has an impressive history on his side. Over the past four seasons, in an offense that relied on the running game, he has averaged 9.6 targets per game. Combine that with his 62% reception rate, that projects to 154 targets and 95 receptions. Assign him a 14.0 ypc and that comes out to 1330 yards. I think that the Carolina passing attack will be improved over last season and he should reach the average numbers easily. Its entirely possible that he has a higher than 14.0 ypc and scores over his 8 TD average.

I really like the fact that he has slid down the ADP list some from last season and has an even better chance to provide solid value.

Steve Smith 160 targets (10.0 per game) 100 receptions 1450 yards 14.5 ypc and 10 TDs

problem with that projection is that only once has Smith caught more than 88 balls in a single season...only once has he caught double-digit TD's in his career..Delhomme won't last long as the starting QB if he plays like he did in the 2008 playoffs..

and Carolina will face a tougher schedule in 2009

book Smith for 88/1110/7..

a top 10 WR, but not top 3..

 

[bcr8f]

I really like Steve Smith for 09. I think that the Carolina passing game and Jake Delhomme should improve over last season. Steve Smith also has an impressive history on his side. Over the past four seasons, in an offense that relied on the running game, he has averaged 9.6 targets per game. Combine that with his 62% reception rate, that projects to 154 targets and 95 receptions. Assign him a 14.0 ypc and that comes out to 1330 yards. I think that the Carolina passing attack will be improved over last season and he should reach the average numbers easily. Its entirely possible that he has a higher than 14.0 ypc and scores over his 8 TD average.

I really like the fact that he has slid down the ADP list some from last season and has an even better chance to provide solid value.

Steve Smith 160 targets (10.0 per game) 100 receptions 1450 yards 14.5 ypc and 10 TDs

problem with that projection is that only once has Smith caught more than 88 balls in a single season...only once has he caught double-digit TD's in his career..Delhomme won't last long as the starting QB if he plays like he did in the 2008 playoffs..

and Carolina will face a tougher schedule in 2009

book Smith for 88/1110/7..

a top 10 WR, but not top 3..

This is like stock brokers thinking the past will project the future. I have him top 5. SOS is always hard to predict because it's based on prior years' records. How often do they stay the same?

I have them in the middle on strength of schedule anyway.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Delhomme won't last long as the starting QB if he plays like he did in the 2008 playoffs..

Considering we have seasons and seasons worth of data with which to judge Delhomme, I don't think we need to worry about one game. Delhomme led the league in yards per completion last season and was a very, very efficient QB. If he continues to play like he did in the 2008 regular season, he'll be Carolina's QB for a long time.

 

[Blackjacks]

I'm not that high on S. Smith this year.

I don't like Delhomme and I love their running attack.

Smith is a great athelete and he is by far and away the best wr they have but I think Fox is really going to tone own the offensive game plan this year and run the ball and sneak in a coulpe of play actions.

The big thing in my projection is going to be his attempts. This is why I see his numbers' dropping, not due to his talent

110 attempts

68 catches (I see his % going up)

1100 yards

6 td's

top 15 guy that will be drafted way to high in my opinion

 

[puckalicious]

I'm not that high on S. Smith this year.I don't like Delhomme and I love their running attack.Smith is a great athelete and he is by far and away the best wr they have but I think Fox is really going to tone own the offensive game plan this year and run the ball and sneak in a coulpe of play actions.The big thing in my projection is going to be his attempts. This is why I see his numbers' dropping, not due to his talent110 attempts68 catches (I see his % going up)1100 yards6 td'stop 15 guy that will be drafted way to high in my opinion

CAR had 414 passes last year. I'm no expert but that seems very low. You are expecting it to be even lower?Last year was Smith's lowest target total since missing nearly all of the 2004 season. He typically sees 140+ targets so I see last season as a floor in targets at 128.

 

[Chase Stuart]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=2657

Smith/Delhomme have averaged nearly 100 receiving yards over the past four seasons when both are in the lineup, the third best duo since 1960.

 

[Mr. Mojo]

Delhomme won't last long as the starting QB if he plays like he did in the 2008 playoffs..

Considering we have seasons and seasons worth of data with which to judge Delhomme, I don't think we need to worry about one game. Delhomme led the league in yards per completion last season and was a very, very efficient QB. If he continues to play like he did in the 2008 regular season, he'll be Carolina's QB for a long time.

I don't think efficient scores FF points.His yards and TDs were way down last year despite having a great offense.I wouldn't touch Delhomme again after last year.Smith I would take at the right price which is about a top 5-7 WR

 

[Chase Stuart]

Delhomme won't last long as the starting QB if he plays like he did in the 2008 playoffs..

Considering we have seasons and seasons worth of data with which to judge Delhomme, I don't think we need to worry about one game. Delhomme led the league in yards per completion last season and was a very, very efficient QB. If he continues to play like he did in the 2008 regular season, he'll be Carolina's QB for a long time.

I don't think efficient scores FF points.His yards and TDs were way down last year despite having a great offense.I wouldn't touch Delhomme again after last year.Smith I would take at the right price which is about a top 5-7 WR

Efficient keeps a job, though. And he had his highest yards per attempt average ever, last season.

 

[fightingillini]

Smith will bounce back to be the upper echelon WR that he is. 2008 was an anomaly in the TD department. CAR running game will likely come back to earth after an incredible 2008 where DWill scored 20 TDs and Stewart scored 10 TDs. He still is very dangerous in the open field. Top 10WR for sure, with upside to be in the top 5.

85 rec, 1200 yds, 9TD

 

[Instinctive]

Smith will bounce back to be the upper echelon WR that he is. 2008 was an anomaly in the TD department. CAR running game will likely come back to earth after an incredible 2008 where DWill scored 20 TDs and Stewart scored 10 TDs. He still is very dangerous in the open field. Top 10WR for sure, with upside to be in the top 5.

85 rec, 1200 yds, 9TD

How can you possibly say bounce back when he was 2nd in receiving yards after missing 2 games?!?!?!?He's already there, and I love that people sleep on him and grab guys like Wayne first.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Smith will bounce back to be the upper echelon WR that he is. 2008 was an anomaly in the TD department. CAR running game will likely come back to earth after an incredible 2008 where DWill scored 20 TDs and Stewart scored 10 TDs. He still is very dangerous in the open field. Top 10WR for sure, with upside to be in the top 5.

85 rec, 1200 yds, 9TD

How can you possibly say bounce back when he was 2nd in receiving yards after missing 2 games?!?!?!?He's already there, and I love that people sleep on him and grab guys like Wayne first.

If Smith and Delhomme play 16 games, I'd say 1500 and 10 is very reasonable.

 

[bcr8f]

Smith will bounce back to be the upper echelon WR that he is. 2008 was an anomaly in the TD department. CAR running game will likely come back to earth after an incredible 2008 where DWill scored 20 TDs and Stewart scored 10 TDs. He still is very dangerous in the open field. Top 10WR for sure, with upside to be in the top 5.

85 rec, 1200 yds, 9TD

How can you possibly say bounce back when he was 2nd in receiving yards after missing 2 games?!?!?!?He's already there, and I love that people sleep on him and grab guys like Wayne first.

Got to get Smith pissed off again. Not enough to beat someone up just enough so he feels disrespected.

Even with those missed games he averaged over 100 yards per game.

 

[xenon]

BUMP - what is the latest injury info on Smith's shoulder?

 

[pantherclub]

BUMP - what is the latest injury info on Smith's shoulder?

He may play this week but I doubt it, I hope he doesnt. That said he should be 100% by week one. By the looks of the Panther defense they should be in a ton of shootouts this year and thus helping Smith. I took him 2.08 last week in my BIG money draft. I would bet he finishes in the top 5 in points this year.

 

[gpthatsme]

How bad was he hurt? I didn't see it so can someone fill us in?

 

[omally]

How bad was he hurt? I didn't see it so can someone fill us in?

if he was hurt, it didn't show it on tv, and no commentator has mentioned anything about him being injured.

 

[omally]

CBS just showed:Alert: Steve Smith was hurt on the last play of the half and his return is questionable.

he got banged up in a pile during a hail mary, but he is on the sideline and probably will be back out on the field. moose got banged up too on the second to the last play before the half.