Player Spotlight: Ted Ginn Jr. (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ted Ginn, WR, Miami Dolphins

Player Page Link: Ted Ginn Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Blackjacks]

67 catches

939 yards

5 td's

Plus add another 2 td's for kick returns

He is the #1 wr for a team that is going to have to pass alot. He is explosive once he gets the ball in his hands.

Upside for him is breaking the top 25 this year

 

[Sabertooth]

I'd say he snags about 60 balls, 860 yards, 7 touchdowns total. He's going to have some long plays but I just don't see him racking up the catches with that small frame.

 

[Jimmy James]

58 catches

900 yards

8 touchdowns

The rest of the Ginn family will contribute 0 catches for 0 yards and 0 TDs.

 

[softball]

This offense supports a #1 WR, a TE and the RBs...always has and always will. Wilford and Hagan are no threat to Ginn.

75 catches

1075 yards

6TDs

 

[TheGrimReaper]

Over the course of the year, I can see him evolving into the #1 WR in MIA. Realistically, I see:

65 recpts 845 yards at 13.0 per recpt and 5 - 6 TD's.

Anything above this is pure gravy IMO. I just picked him up in a 12 team ppr redraft at the 11.03, which, if he can hit the above target, would make him a definite value play. I do however, think his ADP is going to rise by the time mid August rolls around. Thinking somewhere in the late 9th to 10th. Even that will still be a decent value play. If he hits those numbers, come the 2009 season he will be going off the board somewhere in the late 7th to mid 8th rounds on average.

 

[Jon_Moore]

This offense supports a #1 WR, a TE and the RBs...always has and always will. Wilford and Hagan are no threat to Ginn.75 catches1075 yards6TDs

What offense are you referring to?There have been a number of coaching changes the past few seasons in Miami. I don't think we can make any assumptions about their offense based on the offense in Miami the past 5 or so seasons.

 

[TheGrimReaper]

This offense supports a #1 WR, a TE and the RBs...always has and always will. Wilford and Hagan are no threat to Ginn.75 catches1075 yards6TDs

What offense are you referring to?There have been a number of coaching changes the past few seasons in Miami. I don't think we can make any assumptions about their offense based on the offense in Miami the past 5 or so seasons.

Thats a good point. Granted, there has been some real instability isues w/ the Dolphins the last few years. A thouhgt to ponder.........MIA will be operating from behind more often than not this year, so they will have to pass. Chambers is no longer there, which leaves the receiving duties to Ginn, Hagan, Wilford, Fasano, ect..........Hagan and Wilford, are what they are. Temporary bodies filling needs on a roster. Neither IMO is going to lead the team in recpts. Somebody is going to have to step up and become the de facto primary. Ginn is THE most logical candidate based on what we know to date.Trying to go apples to apples here, think of ATL last year and the emergence of Roddy White. Terrible offense. Serious instability at QB, and yet they still were able to muster fantasy value. Just because a particular offense looks piss poor on paper doesnt mean that there isnt underlying value to be had given the right circumstances. Im not expecting Ginn to equal R. White circa 2007, but if he able to, say, hit 85% of his production, one would have to agree that, as a later round acquisition, it would be valuable to have on your roster.Just my two cents

 

[Jon_Moore]

This offense supports a #1 WR, a TE and the RBs...always has and always will. Wilford and Hagan are no threat to Ginn.75 catches1075 yards6TDs

What offense are you referring to?There have been a number of coaching changes the past few seasons in Miami. I don't think we can make any assumptions about their offense based on the offense in Miami the past 5 or so seasons.

Thats a good point. Granted, there has been some real instability isues w/ the Dolphins the last few years. A thouhgt to ponder.........MIA will be operating from behind more often than not this year, so they will have to pass. Chambers is no longer there, which leaves the receiving duties to Ginn, Hagan, Wilford, Fasano, ect..........Hagan and Wilford, are what they are. Temporary bodies filling needs on a roster. Neither IMO is going to lead the team in recpts. Somebody is going to have to step up and become the de facto primary. Ginn is THE most logical candidate based on what we know to date.Trying to go apples to apples here, think of ATL last year and the emergence of Roddy White. Terrible offense. Serious instability at QB, and yet they still were able to muster fantasy value. Just because a particular offense looks piss poor on paper doesnt mean that there isnt underlying value to be had given the right circumstances. Im not expecting Ginn to equal R. White circa 2007, but if he able to, say, hit 85% of his production, one would have to agree that, as a later round acquisition, it would be valuable to have on your roster.Just my two cents

Chalk it up to a difference of opinion for sure, but I'm higher on Hagan than you are, and Wilford has shown he can be a very good football player in recent years. There's no question Ginn will line up as the number one, but I'm not going to write the other 2 off. I'll give my take on Ginn himself in the morning.

 

[msommer]

I think we'll see a lot of jump balls to Wilford like in this rookie year. Hopefully he'll catch them and keep his feet inbounds.

If I were to guess who gets more receptions between Wilford and Ginn I'd pick the former. Ginn seems very much the stretch the field type of WR - if he can even last a whole season in a featured role.

Ginn 55/750/7

 

[Tanner9919]

Parcells probably sees him as Terry Glenn v2.0..

speed kills.

70/868/6

will probably score at least 3 TDs from 40+ yards this season...

 

[The Man with the Plan]

So he's fast. Anything else?

 

[Jimmy James]

So he's fast. Anything else?

He has a heck of a family.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Ted Ginn Jr.,

I didn't understand the pick when they selected him so early in the first and I still don't. I just don't think he's that good and he'll be one of those guys who beats me because I won't have him on any of my teams nor did I last year. His best games are behind him as a Buckeye scoring Td's against U of M.

45 receptions for 500 yards and 3 td's

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

54/675/5

 

[Jon_Moore]

Ginn's a great deep threat...that averaged 12.8 per as a rookie. I assume that's because of the horrible quarterback play in Miami, unfortunately for Ginn, that's been the case since forever, and doesn't look like it'll change this season. Some people say he has no competition for balls, but Wilford was a very good receiver in Jacksonville in a VERY run-heavy offense. Wilford has a good chance to lead this team in receptions. Ginn should get past defenses a handful of times to find the endzone, but with Ronnie Brown coming off an injury and Ricky Williams being in and out of football, defenses won't stack for the run, Ginn's going to have a hard time this year.

42 Receptions

559 Yards

5 Tds

 

[TheGrimReaper]

Ginn's a great deep threat...that averaged 12.8 per as a rookie. I assume that's because of the horrible quarterback play in Miami, unfortunately for Ginn, that's been the case since forever, and doesn't look like it'll change this season. Some people say he has no competition for balls, but Wilford was a very good receiver in Jacksonville in a VERY run-heavy offense. Wilford has a good chance to lead this team in receptions. Ginn should get past defenses a handful of times to find the endzone, but with Ronnie Brown coming off an injury and Ricky Williams being in and out of football, defenses won't stack for the run, Ginn's going to have a hard time this year. 42 Receptions559 Yards5 Tds

Go back a year to the 07 draft. Now IF Parcells had been in charge at that time, would MIA have drafted Ginn?? I think we can all answer an emphatic NO, at least given that Ginn would not have been drafted as early as he was. Yet Parcells and CO find themselves with the cupboard somewhat bare at WR in MIA. Does that mean they give up? NO, they make do with what they have. As far as comparing the 08 MIA vs the 07 MIA. one should not fall into that trap. They will be better coached, more disciplined, ect...The O-line has improved with the infusion of Long and Smiley( and I bet they are not done yet). Ronnie is ahead of sched, Williams is ?? (we will see). Parmalee is a hidden gem that most are not aware of. The QB situation is better than last year given Mckown, Beck, Henne vs what was there b4. Fasano was stolen off the DAL roster.Am I implying that MIA is a playoff contender?? Hell no! But they will be more competitive than last year. Part of that resurgence will be the use of Ginn in the offense. Am I implying that Ginn should be drafted b4 the 10 round. Nope.........All im saying is he is worth a later round flyer that COULD pay some very nice dividends.

 

[Jon_Moore]

Ginn's a great deep threat...that averaged 12.8 per as a rookie. I assume that's because of the horrible quarterback play in Miami, unfortunately for Ginn, that's been the case since forever, and doesn't look like it'll change this season. Some people say he has no competition for balls, but Wilford was a very good receiver in Jacksonville in a VERY run-heavy offense. Wilford has a good chance to lead this team in receptions. Ginn should get past defenses a handful of times to find the endzone, but with Ronnie Brown coming off an injury and Ricky Williams being in and out of football, defenses won't stack for the run, Ginn's going to have a hard time this year. 42 Receptions559 Yards5 Tds

Go back a year to the 07 draft. Now IF Parcells had been in charge at that time, would MIA have drafted Ginn?? I think we can all answer an emphatic NO, at least given that Ginn would not have been drafted as early as he was. Yet Parcells and CO find themselves with the cupboard somewhat bare at WR in MIA. Does that mean they give up? NO, they make do with what they have. As far as comparing the 08 MIA vs the 07 MIA. one should not fall into that trap. They will be better coached, more disciplined, ect...The O-line has improved with the infusion of Long and Smiley( and I bet they are not done yet). Ronnie is ahead of sched, Williams is ?? (we will see). Parmalee is a hidden gem that most are not aware of. The QB situation is better than last year given Mckown, Beck, Henne vs what was there b4. Fasano was stolen off the DAL roster.Am I implying that MIA is a playoff contender?? Hell no! But they will be more competitive than last year. Part of that resurgence will be the use of Ginn in the offense. Am I implying that Ginn should be drafted b4 the 10 round. Nope.........All im saying is he is worth a later round flyer that COULD pay some very nice dividends.

If I'm in a deeper league, or a very late part of a regular draft, sure, I consider him based on potential and where he was drafted, but I don't expect alot more than I projected.

 

[Sultans]

I think Ginn is sleeper as a 5th Wideout you can get in the end game of an auction or draft. But he is definitely limited by a possible rotating QB scheme.

60 850 7 TD's

 

[Chaos Commish]

I think Ginn is sleeper as a 5th Wideout you can get in the end game of an auction or draft.

From a few drafts I've followed, I see him going late 9th to early 11th. His current ADP according the consensus here is 140, a 12th rounder in 12 teamer. I think that will steadily climb and by late August Ginn will be a solid 8th rounder. Not hardly end game fodder in an auction or final pick WR5 status. I think it's too early to make reasonable projections on him. Some think he's going to take over as WR1. Some think he's little more than a return specialist. Camp will straighten this out some. If I were to guess, I expect him to be used primarily to stretch the field and draw double coverage. He was drawing double coverage last year. He drew double coverage when he played with Holmes and Gonzalez. He is the type of weapon who makes his team better but may not produce big fantasy numbers. His hands are much better than he usually gets credit for. So are his routes. He gets separation regularly. With a very low degree of confidence, I'll go with:65 - 900 - 7

 

[Jon_Moore]

I think Ginn is sleeper as a 5th Wideout you can get in the end game of an auction or draft.

From a few drafts I've followed, I see him going late 9th to early 11th. His current ADP according the consensus here is 140, a 12th rounder in 12 teamer. I think that will steadily climb and by late August Ginn will be a solid 8th rounder. Not hardly end game fodder in an auction or final pick WR5 status. I think it's too early to make reasonable projections on him. Some think he's going to take over as WR1. Some think he's little more than a return specialist. Camp will straighten this out some. If I were to guess, I expect him to be used primarily to stretch the field and draw double coverage. He was drawing double coverage last year. He drew double coverage when he played with Holmes and Gonzalez. He is the type of weapon who makes his team better but may not produce big fantasy numbers. His hands are much better than he usually gets credit for. So are his routes. He gets separation regularly. With a very low degree of confidence, I'll go with:65 - 900 - 7

That's roughly the average people are projecting for Greg Jennings.

 

[Sultans]

I think Ginn is sleeper as a 5th Wideout you can get in the end game of an auction or draft.

From a few drafts I've followed, I see him going late 9th to early 11th. His current ADP according the consensus here is 140, a 12th rounder in 12 teamer. I think that will steadily climb and by late August Ginn will be a solid 8th rounder. Not hardly end game fodder in an auction or final pick WR5 status. I think it's too early to make reasonable projections on him. Some think he's going to take over as WR1. Some think he's little more than a return specialist. Camp will straighten this out some. If I were to guess, I expect him to be used primarily to stretch the field and draw double coverage. He was drawing double coverage last year. He drew double coverage when he played with Holmes and Gonzalez. He is the type of weapon who makes his team better but may not produce big fantasy numbers. His hands are much better than he usually gets credit for. So are his routes. He gets separation regularly. With a very low degree of confidence, I'll go with:65 - 900 - 7

That's roughly the average people are projecting for Greg Jennings.

51. Ted Ginn MIA REC RYD AVG RTD TARG 2008 Proj. 57 812 14.2 3 109 Rotowire seems to dig him somewhat. He was really showing signs of GETTING it late in the season.

 

[The Jacket]

50 balls

825 yards

4 TD

8 rush

75 yards

1 KR TD

2 PR TD

 

[Marc Levin]

he'll be one of those guys who beats me because I won't have him on any of my teams nor did I last year. 45 receptions for 500 yards and 3 td's

These two sentences are incongruous, unless you believe that the mere fact you don't have him on any of your teams means his best games will be against your fantasy teams.If that happens, please let me know as there are some Vegas bookies who need to talk to you.

 

[Marc Levin]

As far as comparing the 08 MIA vs the 07 MIA. one should not fall into that trap.

Comparing them to the '07 Cowboys, OTOH . . .

 

[chadjohnsonfan]

I think he'll hit about 52 rec, 715 yds, 4 TD's. Add in about 35 yards rushing and a couple of return TD's.

His real value is in return yardage leagues. He will likely be the primary returner on a below average team. Bad teams give up more scores and therefore have more kick returns. Add in the fact that he will likely double his offensive production from last year and he becomes extremely valuable in these kinds of leagues.

Otherwise, I'd see him as a WR4 with some great upside. Highly draftable in the late rounds of any decent size league. I'd even be OK with drafting him as a WR3 in a dynasty startup considering his potential.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

he'll be one of those guys who beats me because I won't have him on any of my teams nor did I last year. 45 receptions for 500 yards and 3 td's

These two sentences are incongruous, unless you believe that the mere fact you don't have him on any of your teams means his best games will be against your fantasy teams.If that happens, please let me know as there are some Vegas bookies who need to talk to you.

I am not sure exactly what you mean, but I'll explain what I mean, which is all I can do. I don't think he's that good, but some people think he can do better to significantly better than what I have posted. The part where I say I won't have him on any of my teams and he'll beat me is IF he is one of those guys I misread and I don't draft on any of my teams and he goes off and has a solid season.The thought of head to head matchups never crossed my mind but passing up on players who I don't rank highly and they end up doing very well does. In the end, those kind of errors are what beats you. I have been looking for a new "guy", if you know of any in Vegas, PM me.

 

[Marc Levin]

The part where I say I won't have him on any of my teams and he'll beat me is IF he is one of those guys I misread and I don't draft on any of my teams and he goes off and has a solid season.

That makes much more sense. There was a missing word in your OP. It made it sound prophetic. Like: "I predict he'll have these crappy numbers. Since I am predicting such crappy number, you just know that he'll have good games when he plays me."Re: Ginn I agree with many of the thoughts here. I happen to be writing the Ginn spotlight for the site this evening, so if anyone has any strong feelings one way por another they'd like to debate, I'll engage that discussion, and try to incorporate the back and forth in my article.IOW, write this one for me JK - I'm a big phin fan, I already have it all fleshed out how I feel about Ginn this year.

 

[rzrback77]

I have been avoiding making projections for Ginn as I just didn't have a handle on the Dolphins due to all of their changes.

But a quick review of Ginn and his last years stats leads me to believe that he is very undervalued currently, but whether that will continue till drafts in August is hard to tell.

In 07, over the first six games with Chambers in Miami, Ginn had 8 targets for 1.2 per game. Over the first three games without Chambers, his role increase to an average of 4.0 per game. Then in the last seven games, he averaged a little over 7 targets per game.

fast forward to 08 and we have all the positive changes with coaching and OL etc, but Booker is gone and Wilford is there. I see that as an indicator that Ginn could be the leader of the Phin Pack.

I think that he will have the same or more opportunities that he saw at the end of 07 and be a solid bargain as he can be drafted rather late.

Ted Ginn 128 targets 8.0 per game and 65 receptions for 910 yards 14.0 ypc and 5 TDs

 

[TaxMan]

I have been avoiding making projections for Ginn as I just didn't have a handle on the Dolphins due to all of their changes.But a quick review of Ginn and his last years stats leads me to believe that he is very undervalued currently, but whether that will continue till drafts in August is hard to tell.In 07, over the first six games with Chambers in Miami, Ginn had 8 targets for 1.2 per game. Over the first three games without Chambers, his role increase to an average of 4.0 per game. Then in the last seven games, he averaged a little over 7 targets per game. fast forward to 08 and we have all the positive changes with coaching and OL etc, but Booker is gone and Wilford is there. I see that as an indicator that Ginn could be the leader of the Phin Pack.I think that he will have the same or more opportunities that he saw at the end of 07 and be a solid bargain as he can be drafted rather late.Ted Ginn 128 targets 8.0 per game and 65 receptions for 910 yards 14.0 ypc and 5 TDs

if Ginn gets 128 targets, he would have to be clear-cut WR1 in that offense. I'm not so sure he is ready for that role just yet.

 

[Marc Levin]

If last year's staff continued to this year, Ginn would definitely be the clear cut #1 WR for the Dolphins - he definitely was that towards the end of last year.

New coach and new scheme, however, and the situation is much less clear. I believe that if Parcels were coaching this team, he would expect Ginn = Terry Glenn. Be open deep, make good cuts off the line, play tough through hand checks to get free. And 128 targets would be reasonable.

As it stands, I am not sure how Sparano will use him. In Tedd Ginn I see a lot of Steve Smith, but taller. And as slow to develop into a star if he ever does.

Steve Smith, year two:

94 targets 54 catches 872 yards 16.1 YPC 3 TDs

And a return ace.

I think these are reasonable projections for Ginn, too. They are close to what I came up with for him. I had him with around 100 targets, about a 55% reception rate and a lower YPC, and one more TD.

 

[TaxMan]

If last year's staff continued to this year, Ginn would definitely be the clear cut #1 WR for the Dolphins - he definitely was that towards the end of last year.New coach and new scheme, however, and the situation is much less clear. I believe that if Parcels were coaching this team, he would expect Ginn = Terry Glenn. Be open deep, make good cuts off the line, play tough through hand checks to get free. And 128 targets would be reasonable.As it stands, I am not sure how Sparano will use him. In Tedd Ginn I see a lot of Steve Smith, but taller. And as slow to develop into a star if he ever does.Steve Smith, year two:94 targets 54 catches 872 yards 16.1 YPC 3 TDsAnd a return ace.I think these are reasonable projections for Ginn, too. They are close to what I came up with for him. I had him with around 100 targets, about a 55% reception rate and a lower YPC, and one more TD.

ok, i can buy that. 90-100 targets is very reasonable. 130 targets is just way too high IMO for a 2nd-year WR, unless you are an Andre Johnson/Fitzgerald type talent.

 

[Football Jones]

72/1008/6

I believe those are very reasonable expectations given his/the team's ability. I really think he's vastly underrated by most FFers. And nobody will work harder at his craft, or has a better attitude, than Ted Ginn. He's just an exemplary young player.

I believe he's going to explode (in a good way) in '09. Ginn is currently one of the best (if not THE best) WR bargains in dynasty leagues, IMO.

 

[Gatorman]

I shudder to rate any dolphin player b/c it conflicts my homerism and pessemism about this team...

Still, I think when Parcells looked at this team when he got here, he said the two players on his roster that will be here and contribute for a while was Satele (the Center) and Ted Ginn. I believe Ginn could have Chambers like numbers, but with better hands and less drops. As most people have said on this thread however, will he be the #1 guy, or the deep threat to Wilford being the "Keyshawn" of this team (I cannot compare him to owens, but his height and hands make wilford more of a "keyshawn" type receiver for the phins)

If he is the #1, 110 targets for 80 catches (30 - 40 misses due to erratic QB play/geting on the same page with them), for about 960 and maybe 3-5 TD. He will get good return yardage and perhaps a TD there with the usual parcells (and co) emphasis on Special Teams. I see wilford, Fasano, and the 3 RBs mentioned hogging most o the TDs, with Ginns coming from 20 yards out.

If Wilfork sees the #1 spot in offensive design, then I see abut 75 targets for 59 catches for about 700 yards (I believe in this case the < # of catches are offset by and > in ypc) and 3 TDs.

 

[RBM]

WTF happened here?

And how are you supposed to search for this guy?

 

[TitusIII]

WTF happened here?And how are you supposed to search for this guy?

He is more of a Devin Hester-esque receiver...still going to help the Dolphins win games in the future, but he isn't going to be fantasy #1 at any time down the road...

 

[teamroc]

They should probably just lock and bury this bad boy. Ouch.