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Player Spotlight: Terrell Owens (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Terrell Owens, WR, Buffalo Bills

Player Page Link: Terrell Owens Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
TO as a Bill will be a disaster. He has never played with a QB that has been this bad.

900 Yards and 7 TDs.

 
In 8 of his 16 games last season, TO had less than 40 yards receiving; in 6 if those 8 he also failed to score. TO will still have a few big games, but I believe his time as an elitle NFL (and fantasy) receiver has come to an end. After watching every Cowboys game last year, I can tell you, he just can't get off the line anymore. Too often when he was jammed, he failed to get any seperation. TO can still go strong acroos the middle and is effective near the goal line, but I would pass on him at his current ADP of WR14.

135 Targets

64 Receptions

890 Yards Receiving

13.9 YPR

7 TDs

 
TO as a Bill will be a disaster. He has never played with a QB that has been this bad.900 Yards and 7 TDs.
I think Edwards made some pretty nice strides, looking like a real NFL quarterback. I wouldn't be surprosed if Edwards ends up being a top 10-12 fantasy QB this year.
 
TO as a Bill will be a disaster. He has never played with a QB that has been this bad.900 Yards and 7 TDs.
I think Edwards made some pretty nice strides, looking like a real NFL quarterback. I wouldn't be surprosed if Edwards ends up being a top 10-12 fantasy QB this year.
Trent Edwards threw 11 TDs in 14 games. He averaged a TD once every 34 attempts. Of all the NFL QBs that qualified for official stats, the only ones with worse TD/attempt ratios were:Kerry Collins - 34.5David Garrard - 35.6Jason Campbell - 40Marc Bulger - 40Ryan Fitzpatrick - 46.5
 
TO as a Bill will be a disaster. He has never played with a QB that has been this bad.900 Yards and 7 TDs.
I think Edwards made some pretty nice strides, looking like a real NFL quarterback. I wouldn't be surprosed if Edwards ends up being a top 10-12 fantasy QB this year.
Trent Edwards threw 11 TDs in 14 games. He averaged a TD once every 34 attempts. Of all the NFL QBs that qualified for official stats, the only ones with worse TD/attempt ratios were:Kerry Collins - 34.5David Garrard - 35.6Jason Campbell - 40Marc Bulger - 40Ryan Fitzpatrick - 46.5
with Lee Evans and a host of jokers at the position.Now he has Owens and Evans and either Josh Reed or Roscoe Parrish out of the slot.I look for Edwards to take the next step.
 
butterfingers goes for 65/1000/6. His ADP is too high for me. I'm seeing him go before guys like Bowe & Marshall in re-drafts.

 
:thumbup: His first year with a new team is always :lmao:
70 for 1150 comes out to 16.4 YPR. TO has reached 16.4 YPR in two seasons. Once in 1998, with 12-4 49ers led by Steve Young, and in 2007 with the 13-3 Cowboys with Tony Romo as his QB. I would be willing to bet my first born that TO doesn't reach 16.4 YPR with the Bills this season.
You're right. He'll probably have more than 70 receptions.
 
Darker Knight said:
70/1150/10
So you expect TO to have better numbers than last year with a lesser qb, a coach who thinks a passing game is a pitch to his rb rather than a direct handoff, and he's another year older? Not to mention the end of the season in Buffalo doesn't always make for the best of conditions for a passing game.
 
I don't see this as a great situation for TO.

Bad/Average QB

Cold weather

AFC East schedule

Run first team

121 Targets

67 Receptions

840 Yards

13.5 YPR

7 TDs

 
Garts said:
TO as a Bill will be a disaster. He has never played with a QB that has been this bad.900 Yards and 7 TDs.
I think Edwards made some pretty nice strides, looking like a real NFL quarterback. I wouldn't be surprosed if Edwards ends up being a top 10-12 fantasy QB this year.
Trent Edwards threw 11 TDs in 14 games. He averaged a TD once every 34 attempts. Of all the NFL QBs that qualified for official stats, the only ones with worse TD/attempt ratios were:Kerry Collins - 34.5David Garrard - 35.6Jason Campbell - 40Marc Bulger - 40Ryan Fitzpatrick - 46.5
with Lee Evans and a host of jokers at the position.Now he has Owens and Evans and either Josh Reed or Roscoe Parrish out of the slot.I look for Edwards to take the next step.
Owens is not the savior of the Bills passing game.
 
Absolutely no facts to back this up, just a hunch: TO barely plays 3 games this year.

12-170-1

He'll take his final payday of $6.5 million and ride off into the reality TV sunset.

 
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I am very curious as to how TO performs in Buffalo this season. Last season they rushed over 55% of their plays, but this year their starting RB will begin the year suspended and they have added a nice receiving option across from Lee Evans. It is likely that they will pass considerably more, especially early in the year.

I also expect that Owens and Evans will be the key components in the passing attack, with not much opportunity for other WRs or the TEs. Ownes may be used a little more as the possession receiver and his ypa may dip some, but he will remain a viable red zone target.

Terrell Owens 130 targets 70 receptions 980 yards 14.0 ypc and 10 TDs

 
Me_O will have a decent yr. but he'll also lead the league in dropped passes, and create turmoil within the Bills organization, unless they're winning and he's getting lots of balls.

75/1000/10

 
Absolutely no facts to back this up, just a hunch: TO barely plays 3 games this year.12-170-1He'll take his final payday of $6.5 million and ride off into the reality TV sunset.
I have to respect the ballsy call.That's there is going out on a limb.
 
TO as a Bill will be a disaster. He has never played with a QB that has been this bad.900 Yards and 7 TDs.
I think Edwards made some pretty nice strides, looking like a real NFL quarterback. I wouldn't be surprosed if Edwards ends up being a top 10-12 fantasy QB this year.
Trent Edwards threw 11 TDs in 14 games. He averaged a TD once every 34 attempts. Of all the NFL QBs that qualified for official stats, the only ones with worse TD/attempt ratios were:Kerry Collins - 34.5David Garrard - 35.6Jason Campbell - 40Marc Bulger - 40Ryan Fitzpatrick - 46.5
with Lee Evans and a host of jokers at the position.Now he has Owens and Evans and either Josh Reed or Roscoe Parrish out of the slot.I look for Edwards to take the next step.
I've been a Bills fan too long to be overly optimistic, but I gotta hold out hope that you're right. Ya know, whenever an offense makes the leap from bad to good, people like to pretend as if they saw it coming all along. Like with the Browns a couple years ago, everyone said "Well Derrick Anderson didn't have to be good - he had Edwards and Winslow and Lewis - anyone could've played QB". It seems like TO/Evans/Lynch/Jackson is a good enough nucleus to put up some #'s and score some points if the QB is adequate - and I know the guy who looked like a train-wreck in their one nat'l TV appearance against the Browns was not adequate. That wasn't the same guy we saw a month earlier. Nobody really knows why or how that happened or how much his concussion played a role in that - and that's why the entire offense is a headache to try and predict imo. I do think WR#14 is about right for TO - that's exactly where I ranked him prior to reading his ADP was there.
 
TO as a Bill will be a disaster. He has never played with a QB that has been this bad.900 Yards and 7 TDs.
I think Edwards made some pretty nice strides, looking like a real NFL quarterback. I wouldn't be surprosed if Edwards ends up being a top 10-12 fantasy QB this year.
Trent Edwards threw 11 TDs in 14 games. He averaged a TD once every 34 attempts. Of all the NFL QBs that qualified for official stats, the only ones with worse TD/attempt ratios were:Kerry Collins - 34.5David Garrard - 35.6Jason Campbell - 40Marc Bulger - 40Ryan Fitzpatrick - 46.5
with Lee Evans and a host of jokers at the position.Now he has Owens and Evans and either Josh Reed or Roscoe Parrish out of the slot.I look for Edwards to take the next step.
I've been a Bills fan too long to be overly optimistic, but I gotta hold out hope that you're right. Ya know, whenever an offense makes the leap from bad to good, people like to pretend as if they saw it coming all along. Like with the Browns a couple years ago, everyone said "Well Derrick Anderson didn't have to be good - he had Edwards and Winslow and Lewis - anyone could've played QB". It seems like TO/Evans/Lynch/Jackson is a good enough nucleus to put up some #'s and score some points if the QB is adequate - and I know the guy who looked like a train-wreck in their one nat'l TV appearance against the Browns was not adequate. That wasn't the same guy we saw a month earlier. Nobody really knows why or how that happened or how much his concussion played a role in that - and that's why the entire offense is a headache to try and predict imo. I do think WR#14 is about right for TO - that's exactly where I ranked him prior to reading his ADP was there.
The thing about the Browns 2 years ago was they had an easy schedule and dramatically improved their offensive line. The upgrades at QB and RB helped but not as much as we (Browns fans) would have liked.
 
Dang, can you guys join my fantasy league?

I think TO's getting tired and old. The last six games he averaged only 5 catches and 90 yards, with a pathetic 4 TD's over those 6 weeks. Tired legs if I've ever seen it. In fact, in games with Romo the bum was only on pace to get 70 catches, 1170 yards, and 11 TDs for the season. Only 11 TD's?? Glad the 'boys got rid of him.

 
In 8 of his 16 games last season, TO had less than 40 yards receiving; in 6 if those 8 he also failed to score. TO will still have a few big games, but I believe his time as an elitle NFL (and fantasy) receiver has come to an end. After watching every Cowboys game last year, I can tell you, he just can't get off the line anymore. Too often when he was jammed, he failed to get any seperation. TO can still go strong acroos the middle and is effective near the goal line, but I would pass on him at his current ADP of WR14.135 Targets64 Receptions890 Yards Receiving13.9 YPR7 TDs
:goodposting: from somebody who actually watched TO's games.Most people don't like to accept when a player's skills have eroded because they remember the great plays the player made. TO was slow off the line last year - that is age, and that is not going to change. I argued this same point last year and 90% of the responses were "TO is in great shape", "Most players aren't TO", and the like. Well, I hoped ya'll watched TO slow down about 25-30% last year, cause he is heading for the cliff. Remember Rod Smith's fall? Like an anvil. TO's will be the same.54 rec., 589 yards, 5 tds, if he can stay on the field.Edit - typos.
 
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Mark Kamenski said:
Dang, can you guys join my fantasy league?I think TO's getting tired and old. The last six games he averaged only 5 catches and 90 yards, with a pathetic 4 TD's over those 6 weeks. Tired legs if I've ever seen it. In fact, in games with Romo the bum was only on pace to get 70 catches, 1170 yards, and 11 TDs for the season. Only 11 TD's?? Glad the 'boys got rid of him.
If he kept up that "pathetic" pace of 4 TDs over 6 games he'd end the year with 10.67 TDs. I'm pretty sure most people that draft TO would take that. And just imagine if he's not "pathetic." Can you join my fantasy league?I'll put a vote out for 77 catches, 1078 yards, 10 TDs.
 
70/1150/10
So you expect TO to have better numbers than last year with a lesser qb, a coach who thinks a passing game is a pitch to his rb rather than a direct handoff, and he's another year older? Not to mention the end of the season in Buffalo doesn't always make for the best of conditions for a passing game.
It would seem that I do......missed your projections
64 catches, 831 yards, 6 tds
 
Dang, can you guys join my fantasy league?I think TO's getting tired and old. The last six games he averaged only 5 catches and 90 yards, with a pathetic 4 TD's over those 6 weeks. Tired legs if I've ever seen it. In fact, in games with Romo the bum was only on pace to get 70 catches, 1170 yards, and 11 TDs for the season. Only 11 TD's?? Glad the 'boys got rid of him.
If he kept up that "pathetic" pace of 4 TDs over 6 games he'd end the year with 10.67 TDs. I'm pretty sure most people that draft TO would take that. And just imagine if he's not "pathetic." Can you join my fantasy league?I'll put a vote out for 77 catches, 1078 yards, 10 TDs.
bigmiiiiike, you might want to check your :thumbup: detector
 
Too many people in here are underestimating Trent Edwards' abilities. But everybody in here is overlooking Buffalo's young and completely reshuffled offensive line. This will lead to offensive inconsistency and a hesitancy to pass causing Owens' (and Evans') numbers to suffer...

Owens in '09: 55 rec, 850 yds, 7 TDs

 
TO will bust in Buffalo.

I understand that in year 1 of his tenure with a new team he posts great numbers, but he is playing with a much lesser passer, lesser coaching, and he is older. I just dont see it working

62 catches

827 yards

6 tds

 
Too many people in here are underestimating Trent Edwards' abilities. But everybody in here is overlooking Buffalo's young and completely reshuffled offensive line. This will lead to offensive inconsistency and a hesitancy to pass causing Owens' (and Evans') numbers to suffer...Owens in '09: 55 rec, 850 yds, 7 TDs
Agree here, Edwards has a lot of ability but with our new offensive line (with potentially 2 starting rookies) and mix matching around it will be trouble! I guess they are going to try the no huddle alot :puke:
 
TO as a Bill will be a disaster. He has never played with a QB that has been this bad.900 Yards and 7 TDs.
I think Edwards made some pretty nice strides, looking like a real NFL quarterback. I wouldn't be surprosed if Edwards ends up being a top 10-12 fantasy QB this year.
Trent Edwards threw 11 TDs in 14 games. He averaged a TD once every 34 attempts. Of all the NFL QBs that qualified for official stats, the only ones with worse TD/attempt ratios were:Kerry Collins - 34.5David Garrard - 35.6Jason Campbell - 40
(edited out last two)I think this is a fair comparison, good indicator. Those teams just didn't pass alot or often in favorable situations. Their team's ideal play seems to be a run. I wish we could do Edwards, TO, Lynch and Evans projections in same thread. I think the sum totals could be too high and we could discuss widdling them down etc.
 
Just throwing this out there . . .

Since 2000, T.O. has scored 109 TD in 127 games played. That's 0.86 TD per game in that time.

I see a quite a few 6 ot 7 TD projections so far in this thread (which over a full season is about half his average per game).

 
Just throwing this out there . . .Since 2000, T.O. has scored 109 TD in 127 games played. That's 0.86 TD per game in that time.I see a quite a few 6 ot 7 TD projections so far in this thread (which over a full season is about half his average per game).
I think it's a combination of things:1. He'll be 36.2. He'll be in a new offense. More importantly, he'll be in a much less prolific passing offense, whether due to scheme or surrounding talent or both.Related to this, consider that Owens has 129 red zone targets in 97 games going back to 2002 (as far back as the Data Dominator goes), with 40 TDs on those targets. Will he average more than 1.3 red zone targets per game in Buffalo?3. Last season, Owens averaged 4.3 receptions per game and 65 receiving yards per game, both the lowest numbers he had posted since 1999. So it isn't surprising that his TDs per game also declined. In his first two seasons in Dallas, he had 28 receiving TDs in 30 games - 0.93 per game. Last season, he had 10 in 16 games - 0.63 per game. There is more reason to believe that is a decline than a fluke. It seems reasonable to think the decline will continue.
 
Just throwing this out there . . .Since 2000, T.O. has scored 109 TD in 127 games played. That's 0.86 TD per game in that time.I see a quite a few 6 ot 7 TD projections so far in this thread (which over a full season is about half his average per game).
I think it's a combination of things:1. He'll be 36.2. He'll be in a new offense. More importantly, he'll be in a much less prolific passing offense, whether due to scheme or surrounding talent or both.Related to this, consider that Owens has 129 red zone targets in 97 games going back to 2002 (as far back as the Data Dominator goes), with 40 TDs on those targets. Will he average more than 1.3 red zone targets per game in Buffalo?3. Last season, Owens averaged 4.3 receptions per game and 65 receiving yards per game, both the lowest numbers he had posted since 1999. So it isn't surprising that his TDs per game also declined. In his first two seasons in Dallas, he had 28 receiving TDs in 30 games - 0.93 per game. Last season, he had 10 in 16 games - 0.63 per game. There is more reason to believe that is a decline than a fluke. It seems reasonable to think the decline will continue.
Certainly at some point his numbers will decline.But more food for thoughtPRIOR TO OWENS:2003 Eagles leading WR had 2 TD2005 Cowboys leading WR had 7 TDAFTER OWENS:2004 Niners leading WR had 6 TD2006 Eagles leading WR had 8 TDIn all of those situations, the WR TD totals were far worse than what Owens produced.Also, Owens did not really do that much worse last year with Romo compared to his other years in DAL. He didn't do much with Brad Johnson.3 games with Johnson: 12-100-113 games with Romo: 57-952-9Projected 16 games if all with Romo: 70-1172-11. So yes, he dropped off a shade last year, but not as much as some folks are indicating. Let's not forgot the Cowboys offense was off almost 350 yards and 9 TD from the season before, so overall the team was not as productive either.
 
Just throwing this out there . . .Since 2000, T.O. has scored 109 TD in 127 games played. That's 0.86 TD per game in that time.I see a quite a few 6 ot 7 TD projections so far in this thread (which over a full season is about half his average per game).
I think it's a combination of things:1. He'll be 36.2. He'll be in a new offense. More importantly, he'll be in a much less prolific passing offense, whether due to scheme or surrounding talent or both.Related to this, consider that Owens has 129 red zone targets in 97 games going back to 2002 (as far back as the Data Dominator goes), with 40 TDs on those targets. Will he average more than 1.3 red zone targets per game in Buffalo?3. Last season, Owens averaged 4.3 receptions per game and 65 receiving yards per game, both the lowest numbers he had posted since 1999. So it isn't surprising that his TDs per game also declined. In his first two seasons in Dallas, he had 28 receiving TDs in 30 games - 0.93 per game. Last season, he had 10 in 16 games - 0.63 per game. There is more reason to believe that is a decline than a fluke. It seems reasonable to think the decline will continue.
Certainly at some point his numbers will decline.But more food for thoughtPRIOR TO OWENS:2003 Eagles leading WR had 2 TD2005 Cowboys leading WR had 7 TDAFTER OWENS:2004 Niners leading WR had 6 TD2006 Eagles leading WR had 8 TDIn all of those situations, the WR TD totals were far worse than what Owens produced.Also, Owens did not really do that much worse last year with Romo compared to his other years in DAL. He didn't do much with Brad Johnson.3 games with Johnson: 12-100-113 games with Romo: 57-952-9Projected 16 games if all with Romo: 70-1172-11. So yes, he dropped off a shade last year, but not as much as some folks are indicating. Let's not forgot the Cowboys offense was off almost 350 yards and 9 TD from the season before, so overall the team was not as productive either.
:shrug:Your Johnson vs. Romo comparison is interesting. Edwards is not as good as Romo IMO, nor is the Buffalo offense as good as the Dallas offense. Of course Edwards is better than Brad Johnson at this point... but this comparison shows that Owens is dependent on his QB. If Edwards isn't as good as Romo, it stands to reason that Owens' numbers will be lower in Buffalo than they were last year in Dallas.And it is very fair to say that Edwards will be the worst primary QB Owens has played with in his career (Young, Garcia, McNabb, Romo)... well, other than Bledsoe to open the 2006 season. Not only does that provide potential for reduced production for Owens, it also provides potential for him to get frustrated and go off on Edwards and/or his coaches at some point.
 
Your Johnson vs. Romo comparison is interesting. Edwards is not as good as Romo IMO, nor is the Buffalo offense as good as the Dallas offense. Of course Edwards is better than Brad Johnson at this point... but this comparison shows that Owens is dependent on his QB. If Edwards isn't as good as Romo, it stands to reason that Owens' numbers will be lower in Buffalo than they were last year in Dallas.And it is very fair to say that Edwards will be the worst primary QB Owens has played with in his career (Young, Garcia, McNabb, Romo)... well, other than Bledsoe to open the 2006 season. Not only does that provide potential for reduced production for Owens, it also provides potential for him to get frustrated and go off on Edwards and/or his coaches at some point.
It works both ways, too. Owens will be the best receiver Edwards has had to work with too.I suspect Owens will drop off for many of the resons you and others have been referencing. So most people with agree his production will be lower than his baseline, it's just the magnitude of the drop off that will be in question. I think Owens could muster a year similar to Moss last year (working with a lower grade QB), so 70-1000-10 (or pretty similar to Owens' 2008 season).I might adjust his TD total down smidge to 8 or 9 TD, but I think he'll have a game or two where he eats a CB alive and looks like the Owens of old.
 
TO as a Bill will be a disaster. He has never played with a QB that has been this bad.900 Yards and 7 TDs.
I think Edwards made some pretty nice strides, looking like a real NFL quarterback. I wouldn't be surprosed if Edwards ends up being a top 10-12 fantasy QB this year.
Trent Edwards threw 11 TDs in 14 games. He averaged a TD once every 34 attempts. Of all the NFL QBs that qualified for official stats, the only ones with worse TD/attempt ratios were:Kerry Collins - 34.5David Garrard - 35.6Jason Campbell - 40Marc Bulger - 40Ryan Fitzpatrick - 46.5
with Lee Evans and a host of jokers at the position.Now he has Owens and Evans and either Josh Reed or Roscoe Parrish out of the slot.I look for Edwards to take the next step.
Turk Shonert is still the OC.You can't score TDs if the OC never attacks the end zone.
 
I really think T.O. will be solid this year. The Bills are going to throw the ball more this year that's why they are going no huddle who goes no huddle just to run....nobody. Now excatly how successful they will be is the million dollar question. It's make it or break year for Trent Edwards also he needs to take the next step to being a good NFL QB or the Bills will be looking for another QB next year.

75-1015-10

He will be the #1 red zone target.

Remember he knows without a doubt he has to shut up and produce this season or his career is over.

 
Preseason is never a good indicator of regular season success....but I watched one drive by the Bills in their "no-huddle" offense in game 1 vs the Titans. The Titans were confused and TO had 2 straight catches on the first drive where he had plenty of room to operate against a good Titans defense.

At that point, I quickly surmised that TO would have about 80-90 catches and I'm sticking with it.

TO keeps himself in great physical condition and I think is motivated to prove to Dallas that they made a mistake...which will become apparent when Romo comes down to earth.

TO made Romo and he will make Edwards. This will be his final great performance and I predict 85 catches, 1200 yds, 11 td

 
Absolutely no facts to back this up, just a hunch: TO barely plays 3 games this year.12-170-1He'll take his final payday of $6.5 million and ride off into the reality TV sunset.
5-98-1 through 3 games :pickle:Wrong about that reality TV show though... what a flop.
 
Too many people in here are underestimating Trent Edwards' abilities. But everybody in here is overlooking Buffalo's young and completely reshuffled offensive line. This will lead to offensive inconsistency and a hesitancy to pass causing Owens' (and Evans') numbers to suffer...

Owens in '09: 55 rec, 850 yds, 7 TDs
Damn, I'm clairvoyant.Owens' 2010 stats

55 Rec; 829 Yds; 5 TDs

 

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