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Player Spotlight: Wes Welker (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Wes Welker Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
One of the most reliable players the past 2 years. He is especially valuable in PPR leagues. More TDs would be nice but he's a guy you can count on to produce consistent #s week to week.

110 receptions, 1,155 yards, 7 tds

6 carries, 50 yards

 
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I like Welker, but to think he will keep averaging 110 catches a season is a little too optimistic.

95 Receptions

1045 Yards Receiving

11.0 YPR

7 TDs

 
I like Welker, but to think he will keep averaging 110 catches a season is a little too optimistic.95 Receptions1045 Yards Receiving11.0 YPR7 TDs
So one less catch per game at 95? Seems to be a pretty minute argument. I'm guessing those 15 catches aren't even a standard deviation off the norm meaning that you two are in the same ball park statistically...
 
I like Welker, but to think he will keep averaging 110 catches a season is a little too optimistic.95 Receptions1045 Yards Receiving11.0 YPR7 TDs
So one less catch per game at 95? Seems to be a pretty minute argument. I'm guessing those 15 catches aren't even a standard deviation off the norm meaning that you two are in the same ball park statistically...
From a historical standpoint, 110+ receptions has been reached 21 times (twice by Welker); 95+ receptions has been reached 86 times. While the two projections are somewhat similiar, projection a player to reach 110 receptions is akin to projecting a player to have a top-20 all time season in terms of receptions.
 
I like Welker, but to think he will keep averaging 110 catches a season is a little too optimistic.95 Receptions1045 Yards Receiving11.0 YPR7 TDs
So one less catch per game at 95? Seems to be a pretty minute argument. I'm guessing those 15 catches aren't even a standard deviation off the norm meaning that you two are in the same ball park statistically...
Welker is a personal favorite, but I expect the yards and receptions to decline this season, probably down into the 90+ receptions range. Defenses adjust, I'm guessing that Greg Lewis will be a surprise WR3 with solid numbers.
 
Don't forget the impact of Joey Galloway. Sure, he'll probably take more catches and TDs from Moss, but he could hurt Welker as well.

 
Wes Welker is another of the 5-9 quick WRs that are excellent value in ppr leagues. A check of the past two season's stats is all I need to predict another great season for Welker.

Welker 07 in Brady's career year 145 targets 112 catches 77.2% 1175 yards 10.5 ypc and 8 TDs

Welker 08 without Brady 150 targets 111 receptions 74.0% 1165 yards 10.5 ypc and 3 TDs

He lost some goal line opportunities without Brady. I doubt that Brady repeats his career year, but he may look Welker's way more often to get rid of the ball quicker. PPR stud and solid in non-ppr leagues. I expect production equal to his current ADP of WR13 and 34 overall.

Wes Welker 155 targets 117 catches 75.4% 1217 yards 10.4 ypc and 7 TDs

 
I like Welker, but to think he will keep averaging 110 catches a season is a little too optimistic.95 Receptions1045 Yards Receiving11.0 YPR7 TDs
So one less catch per game at 95? Seems to be a pretty minute argument. I'm guessing those 15 catches aren't even a standard deviation off the norm meaning that you two are in the same ball park statistically...
From a historical standpoint, 110+ receptions has been reached 21 times (twice by Welker); 95+ receptions has been reached 86 times. While the two projections are somewhat similiar, projection a player to reach 110 receptions is akin to projecting a player to have a top-20 all time season in terms of receptions.
Why can't Welker produce at the same pace? Do you think the last two seasons are flukes? Where would you rank him against Torry Holt? BTW Holt has 8 straight seasons of 80+ catches and 1000+ yards.Including 2003-2005 117-94-102 for 1600, 1300, 1300Do you not think Brady is a better QB, Moss a better opposite WR, and the Oline better? Welker also plays a position that better lends itself to high receptions in a system that plays to him often. I can easily see 140 targets, 105 catches, 1100 yards
 
Wes Welker is one of the few players where we shouldn't even need this thread for him. Anyone who drafts Welker knows should already know what they are getting with him.

115 Catches

1175 Yards

6 TDs

 
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I think it's a pretty fair asusmption at this point to suggest that we know what the baseline is for Welker and the only reason to expect something different is if something changes to disrupt that. I would surmise that the key possibilities for that would be:

TEAMS CHANGE HOW THEY DEFEND HIM

Given that the Patriots will make teams pay if they double cover Welker, I'm not sure this is going to happen to the extent that it would greatly reduce Welker's numbers. With the Pats running a ton of multi-receiver sets, opponents would rather give Welker a short catch underneath over a bomb to Moss for a TD. Defenders may try to do a better job obstructing Welker in getting off the line, but that's probably the best oprion to thwart him as a go to reciver.

THE PATRIOTS DON'T THROW THE BALL AS OFTEN

This could happen given that Brady was lost for the season last year and the running game did very well. In theory, the Pats could run more in the second half with decent sized leads. NE might also elect to run out the clock more frequently than tacking on more points like they did in 2007.

NEW ENGLAND SPREADS SOME OF THE TARGETS THAT WELKER HAD TO OTHER RECEIVERS

The Pats added Galloway, Lewis, Smith, and Baker to the receiving mix and one would think that those guys will do something this year or they wouldn't have been brought in. This certainly seems to be an area that could hurt Welker's targets and production.

WELKER GETS DINGED UP

Welker had his clock cleaned last season but still managed to suit up every week. While it's pretty much impossible to predict an injury, Welker is the type of player that could easily lose his advantage in getting off the line and quickly finding an open pocket of the field if he suffered an ankle or hamstring injury.

I suspect we may see a smidge of each of those this season, resulting in another solid campaign but slightly below the past two seasons . . .

100 receptions, 1050 receiving yards, 5 TD.

 
Don't forget the impact of Joey Galloway. Sure, he'll probably take more catches and TDs from Moss, but he could hurt Welker as well.
:lmao:A) Galloway only takes catches from Welker if he runs Welker's routes and I doubt that is why they brought in Galloway with his speed.B) Galloway is like 90 years old...
 
Wes Welker is one of the few players where we shouldn't even need this thread for him. Anyone who drafts Welker knows should already know what they are getting with him.

115 Catches

1175 Yards

6 TDs
I have the guy in a PPR Dynasty league and he is pretty much untouchable. The guy is still fairly young (just turned 28) and is the most consistent WR in the game. He will rarely score 25 points but he is consistently in double digits every single game. It was only week 13 and 17 that Welker scored under 10 points in a PPR in 2008. In 2007 he failed to get to double digits in 3 games (5, 13, and 15). Well, 4 I guess as he scored 9.9 in week 16. Compare that to Randy Moss that missed getting double digits 6 times 6 times last year in a PPR. Moss is the better WR by far, but those ups and downs can cost you big time in the standings. If one week you win by 30 and Moss put up 8 catches for 125 and 3 TD (Week 12 vs Miami) and the next week you lost by 4 and Moss put up 4 for 45 (week 13 against Pitt) then you just lost the second game. The extra points from Moss got you nothing. But if Welker put up 14 in each game you win both....

 
Welker is avoiding Ryan Clark in the regular season so he may have a shot at 100+ catches again.
Welker caught 111 passes last season and 112 passes the season before that, despite playing Ryan Clark both years. :confused:
Clark missed Welker in 2007 due to his spleen removal. With Clark back in 2008 Welker had 4 catches against the Steelers before the hit heard 'round New EnglandBut I do like Welker. No reason he shouldn't be around 100 receptions again this year.

105 catches

1100 yards

7 TD

 
Welker should not have let his guard down, doubt he has since then. That hit was clean, however if he saw it coming it would not have been nearly as good looking. I've blasted guys twice my size when they weren't looking and sent them flying. To hit a guy that stands 5' 8" really isn't all that impressive. Right time, right place. Wrong time, wrong place for Mr. Welker.

100 catches

1000 yards

7 TD

 
Welker is avoiding Ryan Clark in the regular season so he may have a shot at 100+ catches again.
Welker caught 111 passes last season and 112 passes the season before that, despite playing Ryan Clark both years. :thumbup:
Clark missed Welker in 2007 due to his spleen removal. With Clark back in 2008 Welker had 4 catches against the Steelers before the hit heard 'round New EnglandBut I do like Welker. No reason he shouldn't be around 100 receptions again this year.

105 catches

1100 yards

7 TD
I don't really see the relevance to any of this, unless you were just trying to bring up that Clark laid Welker out last year... in which case you probably should've just said, "Remember when Ryan Clark laid out Wes Welker last year?"
 
Welker should not have let his guard down, doubt he has since then. That hit was clean, however if he saw it coming it would not have been nearly as good looking. I've blasted guys twice my size when they weren't looking and sent them flying. To hit a guy that stands 5' 8" really isn't all that impressive. Right time, right place. Wrong time, wrong place for Mr. Welker.100 catches1000 yards7 TD
It sort of goes with the territory of being an effective slot receiver - if he's looking for Clark, then he's not looking for the ball. It doesn't really matter how big or small Welker is; that was one of the best hits of 2008.
 
Welker is avoiding Ryan Clark in the regular season so he may have a shot at 100+ catches again.
Welker caught 111 passes last season and 112 passes the season before that, despite playing Ryan Clark both years. :shrug:
Clark missed Welker in 2007 due to his spleen removal. With Clark back in 2008 Welker had 4 catches against the Steelers before the hit heard 'round New EnglandBut I do like Welker. No reason he shouldn't be around 100 receptions again this year.

105 catches

1100 yards

7 TD
I don't really see the relevance to any of this, unless you were just trying to bring up that Clark laid Welker out last year... in which case you probably should've just said, "Remember when Ryan Clark laid out Wes Welker last year?"
Just making a joke Bud... 3 posts later we're still waiting on a relevant 2009 Welker projection from you.
 
Welker should not have let his guard down, doubt he has since then. That hit was clean, however if he saw it coming it would not have been nearly as good looking. I've blasted guys twice my size when they weren't looking and sent them flying. To hit a guy that stands 5' 8" really isn't all that impressive. Right time, right place. Wrong time, wrong place for Mr. Welker.100 catches1000 yards7 TD
It sort of goes with the territory of being an effective slot receiver - if he's looking for Clark, then he's not looking for the ball. It doesn't really matter how big or small Welker is; that was one of the best hits of 2008.
Not sure what your point is here...I'm simply arguing that although the hit "looked good", it really wasn't all that. Welker had already given up on Cassel's poorly thrown ball 2 steps earlier so he should have known to look up for such a hit. Instead he just put his head down thinking like everyone else that the play was over, then Clark unloaded a blindside hit as Welker slowed down. Had the ball been well thrown, Welker turns that into a glancing blow rather than taking a semi-cheap shot. I was going to mention that huge hit Clark had on McGahee as being a better hit, but after further review it was a helmet to helmet cheap shot so I guess I'll pass.
 

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