Player that will out play their ADP (1 Viewer)

[KellysHeroes]

To me, finding player that blow their ADP away is a key part in how you win championships; those players make for good depth and trade bait later in the season.

Portis: will be back to top 10 RB form, hes beginning to fall to the 2nd and will make someone a nasty RB2 on their team

Duece: no respect, #32 pick RB22 according to FBG ADP... wow

Coles: He had a top 10 WR PPR season and I don't see to much changing for him, the guy is falling in the 5th and 6th rounds (that could be your #3)

Big Ben: I guess people didn't realize his FF #s were pretty good last yr, and the new staff will look to use him a lot more.

Mark Clayton: being forgotten about

Mi Jenkins: #192 pick WR69 according to FBGs ADP.. the guy had 8 TDs last yr and should only Improve.

J Hill: #262 pick WR85 he could be the WR#2 in SF mid-season

 

[Vibe Raiders]

Norwood...this will be the begining of Dunn's decline. I love the way the kid finishes his runs....everyone is stuck on he is too small...about the size of sweetness and he held up very well...not making any comparisons here except in size and the finishing of his runs.

 

[Yitbos69]

90 QB15 Eli Manning, NYG

96 RB40 Lamont Jordan, Oak

139 WR50 Reggie Williams, Jac

128 TE13 Randy McMichael, StL

 

[bengalboy]

1. QB Carson Palmer will be the #1 fantasy QB this season after fully recovering from torn knee ligaments.

2. WR Bobby Wade will amaze in Minnesaota, as half of your lague's owners won't know who he is.

3. WR Devery Henderson will easily outperform his ADP.

4. Look for RB Kenny Irons to do the same

5. TE Jason Witten will be the 2nd best TE this season behind Gates

6. And look out for The Jaguars Defense this year.

 

[nightmare]

Ahman Green, Texans have a decent run blocking line and it's the same system green bay uses.

Footballguys ADP has him at RB #29-Absurd.

He' be a decent RB2 ranked 14-18.

Brandon Marshall. ADP 0f WR 41. I think he could be a good #3, low #2

Brett Favre ADP of QB 19, NO WAY. Not top five, but 6-9 is close.

 

[KCC]

17 RB15 Travis Henry, Den

92 TE8 Vernon Davis, SF

105 WR36 D.J. Hackett, Sea

181 TE20 Daniel Graham, Den

 

[Burning Sensation]

QB's

Phillip Rivers

Ben Roethlisberger

Eli Manning

Jake Delhomme

RB's

Laurence Maroney

Thomas Jones

Caddy Williams

Marshawn Lynch

Kevin Jones

Lendale White

WR's

Braylon Edwards

Reggie Brown

Mark Clayton

Greg Jennings

Santonio Holmes

Ronald Curry

TE's

Jason Witten

Vernon Davis

Tony Scheffler

Eric Johnson

Vishanthe Shiancoe

 

[KCC]

TE's

Tony Scheffler

There is a reason to think he might not be.

 

[TaxMan]

Ahman Green

DeAngelo Williams

Warrick Dunn

Reggie Williams

DJ Hackett

Jerry Porter

 

[KellysHeroes]

QB'sPhillip Rivers Ben Roethlisberger Eli Manning Jake Delhomme no wayRB'sLaurence Maroney noThomas Jones I think his #s will go downCaddy Williams Marshawn Lynch Kevin Jones Lendale White WR'sBraylon Edwards Reggie Brown Mark Clayton Greg Jennings about rightSantonio Holmes about rightRonald Curry all raider players are worthlessTE'sJason Witten Vernon Davis too earlyTony Scheffler Eric Johnson if he stays healthyVishanthe Shiancoe

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

In my dynasty draft this year I was able to get these guys fairly cheap.

QB's:

J.P. Losman- he played in all 16 games last season and averaged only 26. 8 passes per game; there were 26 quarter backs who played in a minimum of 5 games that averaged better then that. There was however, only 10 of those quarter backs who averaged a higher competion percentage than Losman's 62.5 %. He finished as qb 15 last season and he will make a very nice qb 2 in 2 qb leagues and a good spot starter and bye week filler in qb 1 leagues with potential to be a QB 1 finishing as QB 11 or 12 by seasons end. Buffalo will/has to open up there offense a bit and Lynch will help them do that with his pass catching ability.

RB's:

Clinton Portis-if healthy is a top 8 RB with or without Betts. He is again healthy and all this minor tendonitis as well Betts love talk will scare people off from drafting one of the top RB's in the league. Noticeable stat is he had 7 TD's in 8 games last year. Campbell's mobility helps the running game (see Betts last season after Brunel was replaced) and Saunders offense will be improved in his second year there. Portis if healthy will finish top 8 and top 5 is definitely not a reach.

WR's I grabbed later as I went RB heavy at the start of that draft:

Cotchery: Will make a nice WR 2 again this season especially in PPR leagues and can be had later in drafts. Nice guy to get if you go RB heavy in the first couple of rounds. Not a sexy pick but a solid one.

Mason: at 33 years of age does he still have anything left in the tank??? I think he may make a push as a WR 2-3 in PPR leagues this year. Clayton has emerged and will take away DB 1's and Mason will be the beneficiary. Remember before last season, he averaged in the previous 5 years combined on a yearly basis 85.8 catches per year and 1136.8 yards. 1000 yards with 70-75 catches is not out of the question and could be had as a WR 4 and 5 in many drafts.

M. Jones: People are down on his up and down play, but let us remember that he is a QB turned WR and did have 643 yards and 4 TD's last season in only 14 games in only his second year ever starting as a WR. If healthy he could be had late and make a nice WR 3 and perhaps WR 2.

B. Jones: He is a WR 1 on his team. Ended last season strongly with Young who became comfortable throwing him the ball.

TE:

Eric Johnson: a very good pass catching TE and now with NO he may have a chance to excel like in 2004 when he had 82 receptions and 825 yards . He is worth consideration after the same TE's go every year and give you the same old 600 yards and 4-5 TD's.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

In my dynasty draft this year I was able to get these guys fairly cheap. RB's:Clinton Portis-if healthy is a top 8 RB with or without Betts. He is again healthy and all this minor tendonitis as well Betts love talk will scare people off from drafting one of the top RB's in the league. Noticeable stat is he had 7 TD's in 8 games last year. Campbell's mobility helps the running game (see Betts last season after Brunel was replaced) and Saunders offense will be improved in his second year there. Portis if healthy will finish top 8 and top 5 is definitely not a reach.

With the Redskins finding they have a another good RB on the team to help alleviate the load, Portis will not be able to get the amount of touches to get him in the top echelon of RBs.Portis has finished with a with a top 8 RB ranking ONCE in Washington because he had almost 400 touches. His YPC is underwhelming and if Portis doesn't get the high number of touches, there is just no way he makes top 8 RBs.Although Portis had 7 TDs in 8 games last year, he still only ranked as the 10th RB in PPG, yet you think he will some how better this production with Betts and having to stay healthy for the full season. I just can't see Betts not getting more carries this year than he has in the past, with what he showed last year. The Redskins coaches and FO don't care about stats for Portis or fantasy football and will let Betts have more share of the touches to keep Portis healthy to help the team later in the season. They aren't going to grind Portis into the ground and let Betts waste away on the sideline. Giving Betts more carries is better for the Redskins TEAM, and thats all the coaches care about.

 

[Pickle Rody]

Not yet mentioned, but I believe Edgerrin James will outproduce his ADP.

I'm already 99% sure I'm keeping him over MJD in my keeper league. I'm also stubborn and refuse to give up on him just yet. If Denny Green had remained in Arizona, I would not be taking this stance. But, 1.) A new coaching regime focused on re-establishing the running game and 2.) Newly aquired Penn State offensive lineman Levi Brown are leading me to believe he will once again be a force in the NFL.

I know I'm one of the few who believe in Edge, but, I still believe.

 

[Marc Levin]

TE's

Tony Scheffler

There is a reason to think he might not be.

And here's another.

 

[mlball77]

Here are a few of my thoughts:

QB

Hasselbeck

Rivers

Delhomme

RB

Henry

Edge

F. Taylor

L. Jordan

WR

Colston

Coles

B. Edwards

I. Bruce

B. Engram

TE

Witten

Dallas Clark

M. Pollard

 

[Blue-Kun]

Jericho Cotchery is going to outplay his ADP. In the SSL's he was WR28-30 and going in the late-5th to mid-6th. When he finally got his chance to start, he put up numbers comparable to Coles and in PPR leagues was only 20 some odd points behind him. If you look at how often each was targeted and individual game scores, they're more like 1A and 1B receiving wise. Considering you can get Cotchery a round later than Coles, I prefer him.

Even Herm admits one of his biggest mistakes was not giving the kid a chance to really do anything while he was there.

I think Coles will do well this year, but considering where he's going by comparison it'll be difficult for him to be real value.

 

[KCC]

TE's

Tony Scheffler

There is a reason to think he might not be.

And here's another.

See my list posted above.

 

[KellysHeroes]

TE's

Tony Scheffler

There is a reason to think he might not be.

And here's another.

:( See my list posted above.

Tony Scheffler

 

[crnerblitz]

Brett Favre

Tony Romo

Matt Schaub

Jon Kitna

Rudi Johnson

Julius Jones

Warrick Dunn

Eddie Kennison

Terrell Owens

Donald Driver

Jason Witten

E. Johnson

Nothing flashy here. Bank it!

 

[KellysHeroes]

Nice call on Brett Farve.. he always out does his ADP

 

[Burning Sensation]

TE's

Tony Scheffler

There is a reason to think he might not be.

His broken foot will just make him slide even further than he should.

 

[fsufan]

RB

T. Henry

 

[softball]

QBs

Delhomme

Favre

Eli M.

Cutler

RBs

LaMont

Adrian Peterson Min

Brandon Jacobs

Leon Washington in Pt PEr Rec Leagues

WRs

B. Edwards

Kevin Curtis

DJ HAckett

Ronald Curry

TEs

Daniel Graham

Vernon Davis

Jermaine Wiggins

 

[LawFitz]

T. Henry

TO

Colston

Betts

Mo Drew

 

[nightmare]

Travis Henry owner here.

RB 14 isn't as far off as you guys make it.

I say L Maroney and S Alexander get slowed down with injuries putting T Henry at #12

Maybe C Portis gets closer to RBBC.

This is about 10-15 point difference to get him up to RB 9-10.

Unless you guys believe T Henry is going to get T Davis(325+) type touches.

As far as QB's go, you're looking at a lot of candidates for 3200/20

so drafting a QB that is gonna go from say, 23th to 11th

isn't gonna help you that much. You need to find this years D Brees.

I don't think it's Hasselbeck or Delhomme, maybe Rivers does it.

 

[Kiddnets]

QB - Matt Schaub - will put up solid #2 QB numbers in 2007 and QB #1 numbers in 2008

RB - L. White - can be had for nothing now - no competition and has the starting job on a plate...as long as there isn't any french fries with it he should outperform his ADP

WR - L Coles - Another year for the OL to gel - will be drafted as a #3 WR and be a #1/2 for you

S Moss - top 10 a year ago - off the radar this draft. Excellent #2 and can be had as a #3 in some drafts

TE - McMichael - great situation for him

K - Nugent - top 5 in pts next year - draft as a #2 kicker

 

[Marc Levin]

TE's

Tony Scheffler

There is a reason to think he might not be.

His broken foot will just make him slide even further than he should.

Interesting point.However, I'll be surprised if he is even drafted in most leagues with under 20-man rosters. If you really are expecting him to perform well enough this year to start for your FF team, I would wait on him, not draft a b/u TE, and look for him on your WW after your starting K or starting D has passed the bye week.

 

[-OZ-]

QB - Matt Schaub - will put up solid #2 QB numbers in 2007 and QB #1 numbers in 2008

RB - L. White - can be had for nothing now - no competition and has the starting job on a plate...as long as there isn't any french fries with it he should outperform his ADP

WR - L Coles - Another year for the OL to gel - will be drafted as a #3 WR and be a #1/2 for you

S Moss - top 10 a year ago - off the radar this draft. Excellent #2 and can be had as a #3 in some drafts

TE - McMichael - great situation for him

K - Nugent - top 5 in pts next year - draft as a #2 kicker

Love the Nugent and Moss picks though.

 

[mlball77]

Travis Henry owner here. RB 14 isn't as far off as you guys make it. I say L Maroney and S Alexander get slowed down with injuries putting T Henry at #12 Maybe C Portis gets closer to RBBC. This is about 10-15 point difference to get him up to RB 9-10. Unless you guys believe T Henry is going to get T Davis(325+) type touches. As far as QB's go, you're looking at a lot of candidates for 3200/20 so drafting a QB that is gonna go from say, 23th to 11th isn't gonna help you that much. You need to find this years D Brees. I don't think it's Hasselbeck or Delhomme, maybe Rivers does it.

I'll concede you have some very good points here, especially about the QBs. Honestly though, with a healthy SA and just being healthy himself, top 5 isn't outlandish for Hasselbeck. As for T. Henry, realistically, you're probably right about him coming in around #12 at RB, but I think his upside is top 7 or maybe better. Again, I'm not saying it is likely he ends up there, I just very much like his upside this year.I guess the approach I am taking is looking for players that are likely to noticeably outperform their ADP. NOT sleepers so much, or guys off of the radar screen, but guys that can get you a little more production than where you drafted them would indicate likely. If you get several of such players, your team will be in very good shape; at least thats what I've gathered in my years of FF. Its not always about the M. Colstons of 06 or Willie Parkers of 05. Surely those guys help tremendously, but great value plays can be make a team significantly better. Just my opinion.

 

[Reservoir Dog]

I agree with Portis being great value in round 2 (he won't be there in my league). My personal pick of the player who will most out play their ADP is....

Roy Williams

Great thread, btw.

 

[KellysHeroes]

RBT. Henry

T Henry is being picked in the late 1st in some mock.... Do I dare mention Rex Grossman

 

[Mapmaker]

Based on Redraft Rankings Listed 5/29/07

QB - C Pennington(21), J Campbell(22), B Leftwich(25), R Grossman(26)

RB - D Williams(27), J Lewis(28), L Jordan(36), M Turner(41)

WR - D Jackson(20), T Glenn(30), K Curtis(44), M Booker(63)

TE - E Johnson(26), D Martin(27)

 

[KellysHeroes]

Curtis @ 44 is really good... I have seen him in the top 30 - 35 WRs taken, thats Y I never mentioned him.

You figure his redraft value would be higher than his Dynasty value; since its based mainly on the play of his QB

 

[ShadowMaster]

TE's

Tony Scheffler

There is a reason to think he might not be.

His broken foot will just make him slide even further than he should.

You do realize that Daniel Graham is the starting TE for Denver now? He can slide all the way out of the draft and he still won't have any value without an injury to Graham.

 

[sib]

I definitely think Greg Jennings will outplay his ADP. This guy is a solid talent and was having a great rookie season before hurting his ankle last year. The Packers team isn't a good one - figure they will be playing catch-up on a consistent basis and their running game with Jackson, Morency, and Herron is unproven. Favre's arm has carried this team for the past 15 years; Jennings will be a big beneficiary of this situation.

 

[Cookiemonster]

RBT. Henry

If you can grab Henry late in the 1st, and R.Brown early in the 2nd, you get two backs that are nearly locks to be top 10 w/ potential to be top 5. I can't believe these two are going so low.

 

[redman]

I'm very enthused about the 'Skins offense this year. I think Cooley's pretty much a known quantity, but that Portis, Campbell and Moss figure to outperform their ADP.

Others in the NFC East I'd add to that list would include Eli, Reggie Brown, Julius Jones (Barber's value is inflated IMHO), and Witten.

Edit to fix "Reggie Lewis". I keep juxtaposing Greg Lewis and Reggie Brown in my head for some reason.

 

[Dhizz]

RBT. Henry

If you can grab Henry late in the 1st, and R.Brown early in the 2nd, you get two backs that are nearly locks to be top 10 w/ potential to be top 5. I can't believe these two are going so low.

You have an interesting definition of the word "lock". If you mean Paris Hilton is a lock to always wear her panties in public, then I agree with that version of "lock".Henry has been a top 10 RB once.Brown has never been a TOP 20 RB. So by locks, you mean both will have career years. Is Cam going to block for Brown? Is Henry going to stay off the blow? Is ratface going to bench Henry for an unknown reason? Again, it's possible, but I wouldn't call it a lead pipe lock.

 

[Dhizz]

I'm very enthused about the 'Skins offense this year. I think Cooley's pretty much a known quantity, but that Portis, Campbell and Moss figure to outperform their ADP. Others in the NFC East I'd add to that list would include Eli, Reggie Brown, Julius Jones (Barber's value is inflated IMHO), and Witten.Edit to fix "Reggie Lewis". I keep juxtaposing Greg Lewis and Reggie Brown in my head for some reason. :X

No kidding. Skins were a top 5 rush offense, 2,200 yards! Without their best RB. That Saunders offense was slow to learn, but it's paying off huge now. They're going to destroy people running the ball this year.Betts had 5 straight 100 yard games in the 2nd half last year. Portis started with 7 TDs in 8 games. Betts/Portis are going to rush for 2,300 yards and 18 TDs. The old KC offense is going to reborn this year in Washington.

 

[Burning Sensation]

TE's

Tony Scheffler

There is a reason to think he might not be.

His broken foot will just make him slide even further than he should.

You do realize that Daniel Graham is the starting TE for Denver now? He can slide all the way out of the draft and he still won't have any value without an injury to Graham.

You do realize that Scheffler is the better pass catching TE, dont you? If Scheffler is back by preseason, he will be the #1 pass catching TE in Denver.

 

[redman]

TE's

Tony Scheffler

There is a reason to think he might not be.

His broken foot will just make him slide even further than he should.

You do realize that Daniel Graham is the starting TE for Denver now? He can slide all the way out of the draft and he still won't have any value without an injury to Graham.

You do realize that Scheffler is the better pass catching TE, dont you? If Scheffler is back by preseason, he will be the #1 pass catching TE in Denver.

At worst Scheffler splits receptions with Graham, sort of in the way that Clark and Pollard split up opportunities in two TE sets in Indy for a couple of years.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Chris Simms and Duante Culpepper.

 

[KCC]

Chris Simms and Duante Culpepper.

You may be right, but I'm not so sure about Simms with stories like this coming out of Tampa:

Garcia on Fast Track To Start -- Sat May 26 2:53 pm --Picking up offensive quickly as Simms continues slow receovery Tampa has not determined who its starting quarterback will be, nor will it for a little while. But free-agent acquisition Jeff Garcia is making the decision as tough as possible for the Buccaneers. Those around the Buccaneers organization are pleasantly surprised at how quickly Garcia has picked up Tampa Bay's offense. It's partly due to the time that Garcia has been spending at the team's training facility, partly due to the overtime hours that Garcia has been studying at home, and mostly due to the fact that the quarterback has proven he is a quick learner. But whatever it is, the Buccaneers are extremely pleased with the former Eagles quarterback. While Chris Simms slowly recovers from his injury, Garcia is grasping his new role and offense quicker than anyone thought he would. It gives him an advantage as he gears up for the battle for the Buccaneers starting quarterback job.

 

[ShadowMaster]

You do realize that Scheffler is the better pass catching TE, dont you? If Scheffler is back by preseason, he will be the #1 pass catching TE in Denver.

At worst Scheffler splits receptions with Graham, sort of in the way that Clark and Pollard split up opportunities in two TE sets in Indy for a couple of years.

Lets step back in time, shall we........Tuesday, March 6

Denver reached an agreement Tuesday night with TE Daniel Graham on a five-year, $30 million contract that includes $15 million guaranteed.

Now let me see if I get this straight....... you two feel that 4 days into free agency Denver had Rod Smith take a pay cut and gave Graham a $30 million ($15 guarenteed) contract to split time with 2nd year, 18 career receptions TE Tony Scheffler........

 

[KCC]

You do realize that Scheffler is the better pass catching TE, dont you? If Scheffler is back by preseason, he will be the #1 pass catching TE in Denver.

At worst Scheffler splits receptions with Graham, sort of in the way that Clark and Pollard split up opportunities in two TE sets in Indy for a couple of years.

Lets step back in time, shall we........Tuesday, March 6

Denver reached an agreement Tuesday night with TE Daniel Graham on a five-year, $30 million contract that includes $15 million guaranteed.

Now let me see if I get this straight....... you two feel that 4 days into free agency Denver had Rod Smith take a pay cut and gave Graham a $30 million ($15 guarenteed) contract to split time with 2nd year, 18 career receptions TE Tony Scheffler........

....who may or may not be ready for training camp.Sorry, I know it's rude to finish other people's sentences for them.

 

[radballs]

T. HenryTOColstonBettsMo Drew

At this point, at least three and maybe four of these guys are going to make my OVERRATED list.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Enough w/ the Tony Scheffler stuff..

 

[nightmare]

I was going to push P Rivers harder but he's about QB 11

I'll say if Roethlesburger gets his no huddle and 3 WR sets

He could be this years D Brees-not top five but sixth or seventh.

He's gonna go late in most drafts.

I don't agree with the Eli Manning picks-It's still Tom Coughlin's Giants.

M Schaub in 2 years-I'd gamble on that.

If M Vick gets suspended everybody from QB6 on down goes up a spot.

Say what you will, Vick was QB 5 last year in most leagues

 

[redman]

You do realize that Scheffler is the better pass catching TE, dont you? If Scheffler is back by preseason, he will be the #1 pass catching TE in Denver.

At worst Scheffler splits receptions with Graham, sort of in the way that Clark and Pollard split up opportunities in two TE sets in Indy for a couple of years.

Lets step back in time, shall we........Tuesday, March 6

Denver reached an agreement Tuesday night with TE Daniel Graham on a five-year, $30 million contract that includes $15 million guaranteed.

Now let me see if I get this straight....... you two feel that 4 days into free agency Denver had Rod Smith take a pay cut and gave Graham a $30 million ($15 guarenteed) contract to split time with 2nd year, 18 career receptions TE Tony Scheffler........

Link to Daniel Graham's dominance as a receiving TE please. So in your world 2 TE formations haven't been invented yet? Perhaps you missed what Indianapolis did against an extremely good Cover-2 defense in the rain at the Super Bowl primarily out of that formation.

The answer is yes (and assuming Scheffler is healthy of course), there will be at worst a 60-40 split in receptions between those two IMHO. Graham is an excellent blocker but has dropped an awful lot of passes.

 

[Dhizz]

You do realize that Scheffler is the better pass catching TE, dont you? If Scheffler is back by preseason, he will be the #1 pass catching TE in Denver.

At worst Scheffler splits receptions with Graham, sort of in the way that Clark and Pollard split up opportunities in two TE sets in Indy for a couple of years.

Lets step back in time, shall we........Tuesday, March 6

Denver reached an agreement Tuesday night with TE Daniel Graham on a five-year, $30 million contract that includes $15 million guaranteed.

Now let me see if I get this straight....... you two feel that 4 days into free agency Denver had Rod Smith take a pay cut and gave Graham a $30 million ($15 guarenteed) contract to split time with 2nd year, 18 career receptions TE Tony Scheffler........

Link to Daniel Graham's dominance as a receiving TE please. So in your world 2 TE formations haven't been invented yet? Perhaps you missed what Indianapolis did against an extremely good Cover-2 defense in the rain at the Super Bowl primarily out of that formation.

The answer is yes (and assuming Scheffler is healthy of course), there will be at worst a 60-40 split in receptions between those two IMHO. Graham is an excellent blocker but has dropped an awful lot of passes.

You don't give a good blocking TE $30 million ($15 guarenteed). I don't care if he's the best blocking TE in the league.That kind of money, he's going to be the primary TE in the offense.