Players that you would reach for in 2021 (1 Viewer)

[FairWarning]

I’m not bogged down by it - I get it. But if my rankings are good & I understand every player’s ADP (of the players I want) I shouldn’t have to reach. 

Would I take a guy like Etienne higher than his ADP? No I would not. Because I’m going to avoid the Jags in case they’re a raging dumpster fire, and because Robinson is there too. 

Would I take most of the guys on my list of players I like “a round” higher than their ADP? Yes, because my redraft is a snake & you pretty much have to do that. 

But I generally won’t take a player more than a round early because chances are I’m passing on a player I could also have to do so. Why take a player 2 rounds before his ADP instead of taking a player now & then grabbing that guy the next round? 

I just don’t understand why people do that. 

I get overpaying for a player you like in trade.

I understand bidding more for a guy you like at auction. 

I have a hard time getting why anyone would pick a player more than a round early, except as loosely defined by one’s draft position. (e.g. picking top 3 / bottom 3). If you’re picking at 3.12/4.01 & you know a player with a 5.09 ADP won’t be there, then sure - you’re “reaching” for them more than a round early. I get that. I still don’t see it as a reach though. If you’re picking 4.01 and you grab a dude with a 6th round ADP, I just think you’re shorting yourself the value of the players in the 4/5 rounds. Like trading down without getting an extra pick. Just seems sacrificial & a little bit myopic. 

But that’s my preference. I won’t tell you how to draft. 

I do reach for players a lot if I’m drafting on the ends.  I think it is better to if your draft is close to the start of the season ( we draft 1-2 nights before).  Taking the ADP of 100 drafts from the previous 6 weeks is a guide only - but a valuable one.  Many people in my leagues use it, so now I know how they will draft.  Personally I would rather use the late preseason info for my sleepers.  

 

[rockaction]

 Personally I would rather use the late preseason info for my sleepers.  

Agreed. This is how you can get value. Most people, when they write in these forums, like the value in the early off-season drafts. I don't mind the late ones because you can get camp sleepers that way. And that's not necessarily wading through and interpreting coach speak, per se, but through cuts and watching the tendencies towards a player maybe getting extra volume that other drafters aren't privy to thinking he will get.

 

[FairWarning]

Agreed. This is how you can get value. Most people, when they write in these forums, like the value in the early off-season drafts. I don't mind the late ones because you can get camp sleepers that way. And that's not necessarily wading through and interpreting coach speak, per se, but through cuts and watching the tendencies towards a player maybe getting extra volume that other drafters aren't privy to thinking he will get.

Claypool was a late riser last year.

 

[rockaction]

Claypool was a late riser last year.

Yeah, he was. When Roethlisberger started pumping his tires, I listened. I was able to snag him a dynasty draft that drafts late. I'm not sure how much redraft use people got out of him last year, as he really tailed off towards the end. The guy I had in mind that was a late sleeper was Antonio Gibson. And James Robinson. They were available late in the year and late in even late drafts last year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I do reach for players a lot if I’m drafting on the ends.  I think it is better to if your draft is close to the start of the season ( we draft 1-2 nights before).  Taking the ADP of 100 drafts from the previous 6 weeks is a guide only - but a valuable one.  Many people in my leagues use it, so now I know how they will draft.  Personally I would rather use the late preseason info for my sleepers.  

I mention later in this topic that draft position has a lot to do with what defines “reach”.

and yes - I do NOT advocate drafting by ADP. I DO recommend using ADP as one of the many available tools to help me know where my league-mates might be more or less likely to take a player I’m targeting.

Ironically, sometimes it’s ADP that actually tells me to reach for a player.

Folks get too hung up on taking sides about ADP. It’s a weirdly polarizing topic. My toolbox has a hammer, a wrench, a screwdriver, a measuring tape, etc. if I tell folks I’m going to measure using a screwdriver they’d probably look at me like I grew a 3rd arm. But by the same token, I’d get the same looks if I told folks I was going to cut without measuring, right? 

tiered rankings, gut feels, watching the picks of the teams adjacent to me to know their needs (a critical practice at the turn), developing an overall draft strategy based on what I perceive this year’s draft class to be heavy or light on,  players or teams I prefer to root for - these all come into the equation.
 

It’s not an either/or when it comes to ADP. It’s just another tool in the bag.  And it’s one I’ll glance at every time I go to pick, because it helps me to gauge how others have drafted a player to know whether I’m getting a perceived value or whether I’m reaching for them. It’s not the end-all be-all of drafting. It’s a way to lend perspective.

ive seen FF managers reach for a player by several rounds. Like 4+. Because the only tool in their bag is a set of rankings for each position.  They reach badly because they lack perspective of where those players are typically being drafted, and how their positional rankings compare to a composite rankings list. 

I believe that the more tools we use, the better we can draft. Late preseason info is another tool - I suggest you use it in conjunction with ADP, rather than an either/or. 

 

[FairWarning]

I mention later in this topic that draft position has a lot to do with what defines “reach”.

and yes - I do NOT advocate drafting by ADP. I DO recommend using ADP as one of the many available tools to help me know where my league-mates might be more or less likely to take a player I’m targeting.

Ironically, sometimes it’s ADP that actually tells me to reach for a player.

Folks get too hung up on taking sides about ADP. It’s a weirdly polarizing topic. My toolbox has a hammer, a wrench, a screwdriver, a measuring tape, etc. if I tell folks I’m going to measure using a screwdriver they’d probably look at me like I grew a 3rd arm. But by the same token, I’d get the same looks if I told folks I was going to cut without measuring, right? 

tiered rankings, gut feels, watching the picks of the teams adjacent to me to know their needs (a critical practice at the turn), developing an overall draft strategy based on what I perceive this year’s draft class to be heavy or light on,  players or teams I prefer to root for - these all come into the equation.
 

It’s not an either/or when it comes to ADP. It’s just another tool in the bag.  And it’s one I’ll glance at every time I go to pick, because it helps me to gauge how others have drafted a player to know whether I’m getting a perceived value or whether I’m reaching for them. It’s not the end-all be-all of drafting. It’s a way to lend perspective.

ive seen FF managers reach for a player by several rounds. Like 4+. Because the only tool in their bag is a set of rankings for each position.  They reach badly because they lack perspective of where those players are typically being drafted, and how their positional rankings compare to a composite rankings list. 

I believe that the more tools we use, the better we can draft. Late preseason info is another tool - I suggest you use it in conjunction with ADP, rather than an either/or. 

Good post. One other point about ADP - I think it works better (for me anyhow) if you are  drafting in the middle of the rounds and not the ends.

 

[Gally]

I believe that the more tools we use, the better we can draft. Late preseason info is another tool - I suggest you use it in conjunction with ADP, rather than an either/or. 

Sometimes the problem comes in when the other drafters are using the screwdriver for measuring.  Then the guy you really believe in having a great year goes earlier than expected to that screwdriver owner and you get screwed out of the player you really want.  

I agree that you need to have all the tools but sometimes you get screwed anyway......not that you can't recover and may benefit from that screwage in the first place.  Many times I have let the other guy make my decision for me on two players I have even and benefited greatly in the outcome.  

 

[Gally]

Good post. One other point about ADP - I think it works better (for me anyhow) if you are  drafting in the middle of the rounds and not the ends.

It should make things easier for you in the ends because of the long stretch between picks.  A player is more likely to be taken in that stretch if their ADP is somewhere in there.  In the middle many times the ADP is right on the border line so you hold out only to lose out.  On the end, I know I gotta take that guy now if I want to get him because no way he makes it back.  Makes the decisions a bit easier.  

I have also found my teams are much more cohesive when I am on an end as opposed to the middle.  In the middle I can't plan my team as well as I am always reacting over dictating.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Good post. One other point about ADP - I think it works better (for me anyhow) if you are  drafting in the middle of the rounds and not the ends.

I think it applies everywhere. The ends can mean ~20+ picks between your picks. Honestly ADP kinda goes out the window there because it’s basically 2 rounds that go by, and if you want a player projected to go towards the end of that, you have to reach for them. 

In that context it’s not much different than using ADP in the middle of the draft order. Just more picks, so less concern about whether the player would be there on the way back. At the ends you’re acting under the assumption that they won’t be. In the middle you can take those risks every pick hoping it doesn’t bite you, maybe getting lucky with values falling to you. It’s partly why the middle is harder to draft from in snake drafts. 

 

[FairWarning]

It should make things easier for you in the ends because of the long stretch between picks.  A player is more likely to be taken in that stretch if their ADP is somewhere in there.  In the middle many times the ADP is right on the border line so you hold out only to lose out.  On the end, I know I gotta take that guy now if I want to get him because no way he makes it back.  Makes the decisions a bit easier.  

I have also found my teams are much more cohesive when I am on an end as opposed to the middle.  In the middle I can't plan my team as well as I am always reacting over dictating.  

I’ve done better in drafts on the ends also.  What helps in my league is the diminishing role of the lead RB.  I would usually take  a top-3 WR and maybe an elite TE and go for my RB’s later.  

 

[Anarchy99]

I’ve done better in drafts on the ends also.  What helps in my league is the diminishing role of the lead RB.  I would usually take  a top-3 WR and maybe an elite TE and go for my RB’s later.  

Obviously there are a lot of ways to skin a cat. What worked for me when I was pretty hardcore for fantasy was doing the research to figure out who some good targets would be that would be available later on and who the value guys would be. From there, I would worry about value tiers and which guys were were taking towards the front of the draft. I didn't really care about ADP, as I wanted the guys I wanted.

Sometimes people ribbed me for taking players too early, but they usually turned into gold (guys like Portis, Gates, Brees, etc. when they were not known commodities). Generally speaking, if I was convinced a player was going to be productive, I didn't really care if I took him 4 rounds too early. Ultimately, all that matters is how many points players score, not which round you drafted them.

The other thing that I found was drafting a player that really wasn't supposed to be on the board could really mess up your draft. I didn't have rigid draft strategies, but the times someone fell to me that shouldn't and I took him, usually that mucked up the next few rounds of picks. Weird how that works.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think part of that is the “no risk it no biscuit” mentality of arians, who was willing to suffer some turnovers in order to throw deep.

Arians blames jameis for 20 int

Ok, 20 is still huge, and he had fumbles too. Can’t deny that. But he’s had a year to sit and learn, take a step back from the game and watch how drew brees does it; he had lasik last year which may or may not be something, he’s playing for what many consider a top offensive head coach. Looking at other qbs in that range, I’d rather take a shot on him than fitz, Tua, Daniel Jones, rothlisberger, carr. He has big upside at low cost.

I think everyone has probably had enough of me expounding on Winston so I’ll leave it there.  

Its intriguing. I think most fantasy leagues do not penalize turnovers that much so hes more viable than in leagues that do. I am more worried about a quick hook because of turnovers than the points lost because of them. It seems Hill will have a role in the offense regardless of who wins the starting job, and so not that hard to bench Winston if he keeps giving the ball away.

I hadn't heard about him getting lasik surgery. That might actually make a big difference depending on what his vision was like before.

I think I would rather gamble on Ben staying healthy most of the year than Winston keeping his job. Fitzmagic is a turnover machine as well. I might take him over Winston but that ones a bit too close for me to say with any certainty.

 

[habsfan]

Its intriguing. I think most fantasy leagues do not penalize turnovers that much so hes more viable than in leagues that do. I am more worried about a quick hook because of turnovers than the points lost because of them. It seems Hill will have a role in the offense regardless of who wins the starting job, and so not that hard to bench Winston if he keeps giving the ball away.

He could end up being the QB equivalent of that frustrating RB who is effective between the 20's but then gets pulled at the goal line so someone else can score the TD.

 

[Mene]

Its intriguing. I think most fantasy leagues do not penalize turnovers that much so hes more viable than in leagues that do. I am more worried about a quick hook because of turnovers than the points lost because of them. It seems Hill will have a role in the offense regardless of who wins the starting job, and so not that hard to bench Winston if he keeps giving the ball away.

I hadn't heard about him getting lasik surgery. That might actually make a big difference depending on what his vision was like before.

I think I would rather gamble on Ben staying healthy most of the year than Winston keeping his job. Fitzmagic is a turnover machine as well. I might take him over Winston but that ones a bit too close for me to say with any certainty.

Fitz is a good comparison, as far as Fantasy.  Career INT rates are similar, both are capable of brilliance one week, then leaving you wondering how a pro QB could be this awful this next.  I think in redraft I would probably take Fitz first, just because the job might be safer, and less risk of being yanked in the red zone.  Keeper/Dynasty, I'm back to Winston.... he's still only 27, plenty of years left if he can find some stability.