Playoff Picture after 14 Weeks (1 Viewer)

[Fensalk]

AFC:

#1 Texans (10-3)*

#2 Ravens (10-3)**

#3 Patriots (10-3)

#4 Broncos (8-5)

#5 Steelers (10-3)

#6 Jets (8-5)

Wild Card Weekend:

Jets at Patriots

Steelers at Broncos

* Texans win #1 seed due to superior AFC record compared to Patriots and Ravens.

** Patriots and Ravens tied for #2 seed. Both have 7-2 AFC records. In common games, Ravens are 4-0 and Patriots are 3-1. Ravens are #2 seed.

NFC:

#1 Packers (13-0)

#2 49ers (10-3)*

#3 Saints (10-3)

#4 Giants (7-6)**

#5 Falcons (8-5)***

#6 Lions (8-5)

* 49ers win #2 seed due to superior NFC record compared to Saints

** Giants win NFC East and #4 seed due to head-to-head win over Cowboys

*** Falcons win #5 seed due to head-to-head win over Lions

Wild Card Weekend

Lions at Saints

Falcons at Giants

Out of playoff picture from week 13: Bengals, Cowboys, Bears

Entering playoff picture: Jets, Giants, Lions

 

[Eviloutsider]

Wow, that 6th seed looks pretty good with a matchup versus the Broncos. Right?

 

[indyram96]

Who cares, the Colts were out of it like 12 weeks ago

 

[ponchsox]

If this holds true, those would be two awesome wild card games. So many story lines.

 

[Godsbrother]

Wow, that 6th seed looks pretty good with a matchup versus the Broncos. Right?

No. 6th plays 3rd. 5th plays 4th.

 

[GregR]

The only way the current seedings would hold up are for the Patriots, Ravens and Steelers to all lose a game and the Texans run the table. Or those 3 teams lose 2 games and Texans lose 1 game, etc.

Texans are only the top seed because of having played one more conference game than the Pats or Ravens. Texans are 8-2, Pats and Ravens are 7-2. Next week when the Texans play the Panthers, the other two will catch up in conference record, and it will go back to the Pats #1 based on strength of victory, and then the Ravens with the #2 seed based on beating the Texans. Assuming they all win which of course could be a big assumption as there are some decent opponents next week in San Fran, Denver, San Diego, and Carolina.

 

[Fensalk]

The only way the current seedings would hold up are for the Patriots, Ravens and Steelers to all lose a game and the Texans run the table. Or those 3 teams lose 2 games and Texans lose 1 game, etc.Texans are only the top seed because of having played one more conference game than the Pats or Ravens. Texans are 8-2, Pats and Ravens are 7-2. Next week when the Texans play the Panthers, the other two will catch up in conference record, and it will go back to the Pats #1 based on strength of victory, and then the Ravens with the #2 seed based on beating the Texans. Assuming they all win which of course could be a big assumption as there are some decent opponents next week in San Fran, Denver, San Diego, and Carolina.

I might pick the Panthers to beat the Texans. Panthers are playing much better than they were.

 

[Fensalk]

next week:

panthers @ texans

patriots @ broncos

ravens @ chargers on SNF

I'm not sure which teams I want to pick straight-up. You've got the top 3 seeds all facing three underdogs that are playing much better as of late. The Chargers have started winning again. The Broncos are on a roll. And the Panthers have started winning.

Then we top it off with Steelers @ 49ers on MNF...

 

[Fensalk]

It entirely possible that all the top seeds drop a game this week and the Broncos are one game back of all of them. Broncos could get to 11-5 from there since their last two games are against the Chiefs and Bills.

 

[Joe Summer]

Who cares, the Colts were out of it like 12 weeks ago

If I recall correctly, the Colts were only eliminated a couple weeks ago.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

so psyched that a Schwartz-Harbaugh rematch could be in the works. NE-NYJ in the first round would be epic, and the Steelers are the perfect dragon for Tebow to have to slay in his first playoff game.

 

[Fensalk]

I got the Broncos with the #1 seed provided:

1. Broncos win out.

week 15:

1. Chargers win at home vs Ravens (certainly possible)

2. Panthers beat Texans (certainly possible)

3. 49ers beat Steelers (certainly possible)

week 16:

1. Dolphins beat Patriots (certainly possible the way the Dolphins are playing)

week 17:

1. Browns beat Steelers (a stretch but they didn't look THAT overmatched in their first meeting)

2. Titans beat Texans (a bit of a stretch but you can't feel that comfy with Yates as your QB)

3. Bengals beat Ravens (certainly possible)

That would be insanely improbable altogether tho.

 

[Fensalk]

The odds of the Broncos getting the #2 seed are actually fairly decent imo if they just win out.

 

[Bad_Mo]

The odds of the Broncos getting the #2 seed are actually fairly decent imo if they just win out.

They are going to lose to NE Week 15 so this pipe dream of them getting a #1 or #2 seed is...well, just a pipe dream. DEN's offense can't stay up with NE's offense.

 

[Joe Summer]

The odds of the Broncos getting the #2 seed are actually fairly decent imo if they just win out.

They are going to lose to NE Week 15 so this pipe dream of them getting a #1 or #2 seed is...well, just a pipe dream. DEN's offense can't stay up with NE's offense.

That's okay, because NE's offense can't score on DEN's defense.

 

[ponchsox]

The odds of the Broncos getting the #2 seed are actually fairly decent imo if they just win out.

They are going to lose to NE Week 15 so this pipe dream of them getting a #1 or #2 seed is...well, just a pipe dream. DEN's offense can't stay up with NE's offense.

That's okay, because NE's offense can't score on DEN's defense.

Pretty sure they can. They aren't stopping Brady/Gronk.

 

[The_Man]

The only way the current seedings would hold up are for the Patriots, Ravens and Steelers to all lose a game and the Texans run the table. Or those 3 teams lose 2 games and Texans lose 1 game, etc.Texans are only the top seed because of having played one more conference game than the Pats or Ravens. Texans are 8-2, Pats and Ravens are 7-2. Next week when the Texans play the Panthers, the other two will catch up in conference record, and it will go back to the Pats #1 based on strength of victory, and then the Ravens with the #2 seed based on beating the Texans. Assuming they all win which of course could be a big assumption as there are some decent opponents next week in San Fran, Denver, San Diego, and Carolina.

This is right, except that the Ravens would be #1 due to a huge Strength of Victory margin (due primarily to 4 wins over 10-win teams Pittsburgh, Houston, and SF).The current Strength of Victory standings:Baltimore - 67Houston - 52New England - 51Of the four 10-win teams, I think the most likely to lose a game are Houston and Baltimore. If they each lose one, and Pittsburgh and New England win out, then Pittsburgh is #1 (head-to-head win over the Pats), NE is #2, Houston is 3, and #4 Denver would host #5 Baltimore in the first round.With one loss, Baltimore is poised to fall from the #1 seed and homefield advantage (they are 16-1 in their last 17 home games and are 7-0 there this year with an average 32-15 score against opponents including the Steelers, Texans, 49ers, Jets, and Bengals) to #5 on the road (where they are 3-3 and have lost to the Jaguars, Titans and Seahawks).

 

[Born to Run]

The odds of the Broncos getting the #2 seed are actually fairly decent imo if they just win out.

They are going to lose to NE Week 15 so this pipe dream of them getting a #1 or #2 seed is...well, just a pipe dream. DEN's offense can't stay up with NE's offense.

That's okay, because NE's offense can't score on DEN's defense.

Pretty sure they can. They aren't stopping Brady/Gronk.

They have a chance if Von Miller is healthy

 

[FF Ninja]

I can't believe the Lions are still in this. It took a boat load of luck and a terrible facemask no call just for them to beat the Vikings without Peterson.

 

[David Yudkin]

The only way the current seedings would hold up are for the Patriots, Ravens and Steelers to all lose a game and the Texans run the table. Or those 3 teams lose 2 games and Texans lose 1 game, etc.Texans are only the top seed because of having played one more conference game than the Pats or Ravens. Texans are 8-2, Pats and Ravens are 7-2. Next week when the Texans play the Panthers, the other two will catch up in conference record, and it will go back to the Pats #1 based on strength of victory, and then the Ravens with the #2 seed based on beating the Texans. Assuming they all win which of course could be a big assumption as there are some decent opponents next week in San Fran, Denver, San Diego, and Carolina.

This is right, except that the Ravens would be #1 due to a huge Strength of Victory margin (due primarily to 4 wins over 10-win teams Pittsburgh, Houston, and SF).The current Strength of Victory standings:Baltimore - 67Houston - 52New England - 51Of the four 10-win teams, I think the most likely to lose a game are Houston and Baltimore. If they each lose one, and Pittsburgh and New England win out, then Pittsburgh is #1 (head-to-head win over the Pats), NE is #2, Houston is 3, and #4 Denver would host #5 Baltimore in the first round.With one loss, Baltimore is poised to fall from the #1 seed and homefield advantage (they are 16-1 in their last 17 home games and are 7-0 there this year with an average 32-15 score against opponents including the Steelers, Texans, 49ers, Jets, and Bengals) to #5 on the road (where they are 3-3 and have lost to the Jaguars, Titans and Seahawks).

I would be surprised if a Ben-less (worst case) or a severely hobbled Ben (best case) will beat the Niners in SF.

 

[Bad_Mo]

The odds of the Broncos getting the #2 seed are actually fairly decent imo if they just win out.

They are going to lose to NE Week 15 so this pipe dream of them getting a #1 or #2 seed is...well, just a pipe dream. DEN's offense can't stay up with NE's offense.

That's okay, because NE's offense can't score on DEN's defense.

Pretty sure they can. They aren't stopping Brady/Gronk.

They have a chance if Von Miller is healthy

Most teams have a chance to surprise on any given week, but I don't see DEN shutting down Gronk, Welker, Hernandez & Branch or getting to Brady that often.

 

[comfortably numb]

The odds of the Broncos getting the #2 seed are actually fairly decent imo if they just win out.

They are going to lose to NE Week 15 so this pipe dream of them getting a #1 or #2 seed is...well, just a pipe dream. DEN's offense can't stay up with NE's offense.

If only they were as good as the Grossman lead Washington Redskin juggernaut

 

[roadkill1292]

The only way the current seedings would hold up are for the Patriots, Ravens and Steelers to all lose a game and the Texans run the table. Or those 3 teams lose 2 games and Texans lose 1 game, etc.Texans are only the top seed because of having played one more conference game than the Pats or Ravens. Texans are 8-2, Pats and Ravens are 7-2. Next week when the Texans play the Panthers, the other two will catch up in conference record, and it will go back to the Pats #1 based on strength of victory, and then the Ravens with the #2 seed based on beating the Texans. Assuming they all win which of course could be a big assumption as there are some decent opponents next week in San Fran, Denver, San Diego, and Carolina.

This is right, except that the Ravens would be #1 due to a huge Strength of Victory margin (due primarily to 4 wins over 10-win teams Pittsburgh, Houston, and SF).The current Strength of Victory standings:Baltimore - 67Houston - 52New England - 51Of the four 10-win teams, I think the most likely to lose a game are Houston and Baltimore. If they each lose one, and Pittsburgh and New England win out, then Pittsburgh is #1 (head-to-head win over the Pats), NE is #2, Houston is 3, and #4 Denver would host #5 Baltimore in the first round.With one loss, Baltimore is poised to fall from the #1 seed and homefield advantage (they are 16-1 in their last 17 home games and are 7-0 there this year with an average 32-15 score against opponents including the Steelers, Texans, 49ers, Jets, and Bengals) to #5 on the road (where they are 3-3 and have lost to the Jaguars, Titans and Seahawks).

I would be surprised if a Ben-less (worst case) or a severely hobbled Ben (best case) will beat the Niners in SF.

And possibly no Harrison as well. It is indeed a great opportunity for the Niners, and by extension Baltimore, but those damned old Stillers seem to find a way more often than not.

 

[Fensalk]

The Steelers are also 3-7 in their last 10 road games out west. The scheduling seems to prevent them from making very many road trips out there for whatever reason. I notice a bit of a pattern where if the schedule-maker books them out west a couple times in the regular season, they don't win HFA and sometimes even miss the playoffs. If they aren't scheduled to make such road trips, they win HFA.

 

[Fensalk]

2007 was the last year the Steelers had some road trips out west. They lost both of them, to the Cardinals and Broncos, finished 10-6 and lost in the first round.

2006 they had some games out west. They lost at the Chargers and Raiders (first road trip to Oakland since 1996 I think), went 8-8 and missed the playoffs.

This year they actually won a game out west (vs the Cardinals). This is their second trip this season.

 

[Fensalk]

I also notice that when the Steelers win the AFC North, whoever wins the AFC west gets get booked to play a road game in Pittsburgh, for what reason.

With Oakland the scheduler has been brutally unfair. I think something like 6 of the last 7 regular season meetings with the Raiders has been in Pittsburgh.

 

[roadkill1292]

I also notice that when the Steelers win the AFC North, whoever wins the AFC west gets get booked to play a road game in Pittsburgh, for what reason.With Oakland the scheduler has been brutally unfair. I think something like 6 of the last 7 regular season meetings with the Raiders has been in Pittsburgh.

I don't think it's discretionary on the part of the schedule makers. A team alternates home and home during those years their entire division plays another entire division. So the Ravens, for example, will go out to San Francisco in 2015 and the Niners will come east to Pittsburgh. Same formula applies every third year within the conference. In 2014, the Steelers will host the Colts and Baltimore will travel to Indianapolis.Where it gets unbalanced is in those two games a year each team plays against its counterparts in the other two divisions within its conference. North No. 1 may host West No. 1 this year, then if flips next year. But the No. 1s themselves may be different. Maybe both No. 1s are now No. 2s and North No. 2 is the host in the ensuing year. This happens all the time. Baltimore almost always goes to San Diego, it seems, but also seems to always get the Broncos in Baltimore. It's just coincidence, not conspiracy.