When you factor in
A. The coaching staff loves Thomas Jones and old or not he is coming off a nice season and should get all the GL carries as well as a hearty chuck of the normal carries - maybe as much as 40%
B. With McCluster likey taking a nice little chuck of his receptions that hurts his PPR rating also don't be shocked if McCluster gets a few carries as well as he was a stud in the SEC at RB lighting up good defenses.
C. He had a great 8 game run and KC isn't exactly a world beater offense - I would at least put KC at the bottom half of the NFL offenses.
Does he have talent of course -- will that translate into fantasy studness again with his current situation - unless Jones was just brought in as a back up strickly and all the jones talk is a smoke screen I can't see him being worth even close to his adp. Hell I would honestly rather have Jerome Harrrison or at least it would be a toss up for me and Harrison can be had in rounds 4-5 in most leagues.
sorry just don't get the Charles bandwaggon - yes he had a great 8 games as the everything back -- this isn't the same team as last year.
I honestly see it as
Charles 210 carries 980 yds 35 rec 300 yds 6 TD's
T. Jones 190 carries 810 yds 10 rec 90 yds 9 TDs
McCluster 70 carries 400 yds 35 rec 350 yds 2 TD's
those aren't shaby for charles and a nice #3 but a #1 come on unless Jones either goes down or shows his age
The back to own in KC is Jones at a cheap rock bottom price at that
As has been noted, there are SEVERAL threads already discussing Charles. But a couple of things:First-From the ADP data I've seen, Charles isn't going in the 2nd, but rather the early third. Now, I know that's nit-picking, but I would be willing to bet many of these drafts were conducted before Jones was listed as the #1 on the depth chart, so I'd expect Charles' ADP to drop (slightly) unless that changes.
Second-It's very possible that Haley is using the Depth Chart to motivate Charles. He admitted he did this with Bowe last preseason, he has said that he believes that a "good coach knows what buttons to push," (I still think it's crap though) and he credits his deactivation of Charles early last season as "lighting a fire" under Charles. So Jones being listed as the #1 doesn't necessarily mean they "love" Jones as much as you think.
Third-McCluster isn't going to hurt Charles' receptions (IMO) as much as you think. Look at Harvin. He was/is arguably the better talent than McCluster, and he didn't really take catches away from Peterson or Taylor last year did he? Harvin had 15 rushes & 60 catches. Peterson had over 300 carries and over 40 catches, while Taylor had almost 100 rushes and over 40 catches. I don't see McCluster getting more than 60-80 touches this season (not counting KR or PR). So let's say 20 carries, 45 catches for him.
Fourth-You're right that KC isn't a world beater on offense, which is a PLUS for Charles. Thomas Jones had a great year last year, but that was for the Jets, who were a world-beater, at least at the run game. They had a GREAT O-line, which allowed Thomas Jones to put up those numbers. However, he only ran for 4.2 YPC, even with that world-beater O-line. KC's O-line isn't nearly that good, so if he could only run for 4.2 behind the Jets' front 5, shouldn't we expect a drop off behind the Chiefs? Jones is a straight-ahead, hit the hole runner. With the Jets, the holes were there, and he barely got 4 yards a pop. With the Chiefs, a RB like Charles who is quick, makes good cuts, and can make guys miss would likely have more success.
All that being said, as it stands right now, I wouldn't feel totally comfortable with Charles in the 3rd round, but I don't think he's necessarily too bad of a pick. If he goes early 3rd, you're likely pairing him with Johnson, Peterson, or MJD. Since those 3 are fairly reliable as top guys, you can take a risk with Charles as your #2 RB. If you're lucky, R White fell to you at the end of the 2nd, and you have a solid WR1, as well.
As for numbers, I believe it will be something like this:
KC will run the ball around 400 times (between the RBs and McCluster-listed as WR). That's pretty similar to what they did last year (380 from RBs, with another 5 from WRs-I see McCluster getting these this year).
Charles: 210 carries (55% of the carries) for 1008 yards @4.8 YPC (conservative estimate, as he was WELL over 5.0 each of the last 2 years), 50 catches (he had 27 and 40 his last 2 years, I'd expect another increase this year, as he gets more involved ALL year) @ 8.5 YPC (career average) for 425 yards. I'd also give him AT LEAST 8 TDs. He scored all 8 of his TDs last year in just 8 games, so even if he's not the goal-line back, he's going to have twice as many games to get the same amount of TDs. Furthermore, only 3 of his TD rushes came inside the 5 last year (5 yards, 4 yards, and 4 yards). Those aren't true "goal-line" situations, anyway. So Jones might get the 1 & 2-yard plunges, but I don't think this seriously impacts Charles, as much as others do.
Jones: 150 carries (40%) for 570 yards @3.8 YPC (he went for 3.6 YPC over the last 8 games behind the vaunted Jets line last year, I can't see him doing much better in KC), 10 catches for 55 yards, and 7 TDs. I don't see him breaking any long TDs, and (as you mentioned), KC's offense isn't a "world-beater," so I wouldn't envision him getting 9 opportunities from the 1 or 2 yard line.
McCluster: 20 carries 89 yards, 40 catches for 410 yards, 2 total TDs.
So:
Charles, 1433 total yards (with upside, I used a much lower YPC than his career average) and 8 TDs
Jones, 625 yards, and 7 TDs.
McCluster, 500 yards, and 2 TDs.
I see 14 of those TDs coming on the ground (7 from Charles, and all 7 from Jones). While that is an increase from the 8 they had last year, I see an improvement in KC's offense this year, with Cassel's 2nd year, Bowe's (hopeful) improvement, etc.
Those numbers for Charles (191 points, according to FBG scoring) would have made Charles a low-end RB1, top-end RB2 in EACH OF THE LAST 5 YEARS.
So like I said, I wouldn't be totally comfortable with him at the top of the 3rd, but if you pair him with a top RB and a solid WR1, his reward could prove to be worth the risk.
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