Podunker's early TE rankings, tiering, with draft strategy (1 Viewer)

[podunker]

Podunkers’ early rankings , tiering, with draft strategy comments

These are rankings are based on 2008 redraft leagues. They are PPR rankings, based on 12 team leagues, with serpentine drafts. I’ll talk about some draft strategy as I go through the rankings. I’ve never done this before so hope you enjoy it, and it can help someone out. Constructive criticism is welcome.

Tier 1

Witten

He is by himself in this one, because he has the potential to score like a good WR2. He is in an explosive offense with a QB that looks his way a lot. Best hands on the team. I will take him over all my Tier 3 WR’s.

Tier 2

Winslow

Gates

Great players both, but Gates has not been as productive under this coach, and with this QB. Winslow is in an explosive offense that just added a new weapon in Stalworth. Injuries always seem to creep up on him.

Tier 3

Gonzo

Heap

Cooley

Gonzo is the No. 1 receiving option on his team, despite what Bowe lovers say. Heap is getting no respect, and is a steal at his adp in the eighth round. Those young QB’s will be looking his way early and often. Cooley will be in a new offense, but score similar to last year.

Tier 4

Dallas Clark

Scheffler

Owen Daniels

Crumpler

Shockey

Clark won’t score as well as last year with A Gon getting some more playing time, but still solid. Scheffler will surprise, and Culter loves him. With Schaub healthy for a full year, in only helps Daniels. Crumpler is another steal this year. Vince will be looking his say a lot, and he has proven in the past he can perform with a scrambling, young, QB.

Shockey is who he is. I would be happy with any of the above guys as my starting TE.

Tier 5

V. Davis

H. Miller

Z. Miller

Watson

These four are marginal starters with some upside. How fast can Davis pick up Martz offense, and will he be used. H. Miller needs to pick up more yardage, he might not get the redzone looks he got last year. Z. Miller showed improvement last year, and Russell will be looking his way. Watson may or may not get enough targets.

Typically I'll only draft one TE and get the other for the bye week off the free agent wire, depending on the roster size.

 

[Jeff Haseley]

No way should Tony Gonzalez be in a tier 3 category. He had 99 recs for 1172 yards last year. He was the 3rd ranked TE in each of the last two years and top three in 8 of the last 9 years. You either need more players in tier one or move Gonzo up to at least tier 2.

Tier 1

Witten

Gonzalez

Gates

Winslow

...is more like it, IMHO.

 

[vincentvega722]

IMO, Gates should be up there in Tier 1. He's just so talented and also with Chambers and Jackson improving, that actually means more open looks for Gates. I believe you should also put Dallas Clark maybe in Tier 3. When classifying tight ends, you have to consider their quarterbacks and system. Other than that, the rest of your analysis is spot on. I think Vernon Davis is a sleeper this year with Martz as the offensive coordinator. Martz was interviewed and said that he never had a talent like Vernon before.

 

[Blue-Kun]

If Gates isn't a tier 1 TE, you may as well not even bother tiering the rest because that makes 0 sense.

For PPR scoring:

Since 04, Gates has finished 1st twice, 2nd once and 4th once. The 4th place was last year, however he actually outscored his #1 numbers from 06.

Witten has broken 200 pts twice in his career. Gates four times.

Same with Tony G. I don't see how he's below a tier 2 based purely on all the data and stats he's put up for his career.

 

[Mighty Mice]

No way should Tony Gonzalez be in a tier 3 category. He had 99 recs for 1172 yards last year. He was the 3rd ranked TE in each of the last two years and top three in 8 of the last 9 years. You either need more players in tier one or move Gonzo up to at least tier 2.

Tier 1

Witten

Gonzalez

Gates

Winslow

...is more like it, IMHO.

Agreed with above. Placing Gonzales in the same tier as Heap can't be done IMO. Last two years, Heap has two full seasons where he caught 73 and 75 passes. He also has two seasons of 6 games played and 27,23 catches. Gonzo's top three outcome, 8 of 9 years, puts him clearly above Heap.

 

[PitbullTD]

my question is where are the Bears tight ends?? Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen, they are going to be hit alot being that none of the bears QB's are good, and the O Linen is questionable I think they will be very good this year.

 

[podunker]

There is several ways to do the tiering, you could take the top six and make it one tier and the next 5 and make it the next tier, etc. etc.

My deal with Witten is that I would take him over my WR tier 3 guys. I don't know that I would with the rest. I'm using the logic that the QB combo is way in favor of Witten. Romo to Witten, is better than Anderson to Winslow, Rivers to Gates, and definitely Broyle to Gonzo. I think he will have the most receptions and yards for a TE in the league, with Gonzo coming in possibly second. But I think Witten will also have the most TD's for the TE group. Gonzo will come in fourth in that department because his team is rebuilding. The bottom line is any of the top six are great. I personally think Heap is the best value of them all, and will finish top 5 if he stays healthy all 16 games.

 

[Blue-Kun]

I'm using the logic that the QB combo is way in favor of Witten. Romo to Witten, is better than Anderson to Winslow, Rivers to Gates, and definitely Broyle to Gonzo.

Seems like odd logic to use considering in 06 KWII had Charlie Frye throwing him the ball and he finished 2nd in TE scoring and Tony G. has had a cavalcade of mediocrity throwing him the ball for the last 2 years and has finished highly. I get that there are a few reasons to knock Gates, KWII and Tony G. this year. What I don't get is, based on their bodies of work, why they are so under Witten that they fall into other tiers. It isn't even like Witten had that much better of a season than the other TE's compared to say Moss vs. Wayne or Brady vs. Manning. It was less than an 8pt difference.

 

[podunker]

Gonzo had his better games when Huard was throwing the ball, not when Croyle was the QB. I'm projecting him to do worse than last year with Croyle playing QB. I'm projecting Witten to do as well or better this year.

After looking, Gonzo averaged 19.7 ppg with Huard at QB, he averaged 9.2 with Croyle at QB. That is amazing!

 

[FUBAR]

I'd list Keller with tier 5.

Donald Lee might be in tier 4, certainly among the top 15.

 

[Two Deep]

Lost all credability by not having Gates in Tier 1

 

[Tanner9919]

Counting on Heap as a Tier-3 TE might be wishful thinking, he's a soon-to-be 8th year player with a history of nicks , scrapes, abrasions...Great player, very favorable offensive system with a coach who loves utilizing the TE position ( Cameron), but it remains to be seen whether or not Heap can make it thru another season unscathed. Great upside, lots of potential, but you also worry about the QB position with regards to this new offense..

As for Cooley, I'd imagine he'll do well, but I'm more inclined to put Owen Daniels in Tier 3 and slide Cooley down a notch: a new coaching staff in Washington has me worried. Former OC Al Saunders called Cooley's # all the time, not sure Zorn ,and in particular, OC Sherm Smith, will do the same..Smith is first-year OC: he was the RB's coach in Tenn for the past 13 seasons. There will definitely be some bumps in the road and a steep learning curve to move to Offensive Coordinator.Not saying he can't do the job, but it will take time to get things rolling..

For a sneaky sleeper pick, I'd add Randy McMichael to Tier #4, on the hunch that Al Saunders turns to him while play-calling..I. Bruce has moved on, Bennett is a one-year wonder, and outside of Holt, McMichael might be the next best option at WR/TE for the Rams ( can't believe I just said that! )..We know Saunders loves to call plays that feature the TE position..

 

[dmac37]

For a sneaky sleeper pick, I'd add Randy McMichael to Tier #4, on the hunch that Al Saunders turns to him while play-calling..I. Bruce has moved on, Bennett is a one-year wonder, and outside of Holt, McMichael might be the next best option at WR/TE for the Rams ( can't believe I just said that! )..We know Saunders loves to call plays that feature the TE position..

In FF we try to look for signs or trends of changes to come. McMichael seems to be a great value play this year, Saunders is known to force feed the TE, and the Ram offense has nowhere to go but up from last year.

 

[Hue G]

So LJ Smith didn't even make the list?

 

[fourd]

Lost all credability by not having Gates in Tier 1

Why, because you would put him there? He gave his reasons why and these are HIS rankings. Will Gates be in the top tier forever? Or do you wait until he has fallen out to project he doesn't belong there? If you don't agree with them, fine. But your post is the one with no credibility.

 

[stevegamer]

"cavalcade of mediocrity"

This phrase deserves a Regarding the tiering, it's Podunker's thoughts - and he views witten as safest, by enough of a margin to create essentailly a tier 0, by moving him above the tier 1 guys. Not everyone will agree - and that's cool.At some point Gonzo will drop - is this the year? we waited a while for Harrison to drop, and then it just happened suddenly. I don't think Croyle is KC's QB for very long this year, if at all, and I'd love to snag him as a TE1.

 

[Two Deep]

Lost all credability by not having Gates in Tier 1

Why, because you would put him there? He gave his reasons why and these are HIS rankings. Will Gates be in the top tier forever? Or do you wait until he has fallen out to project he doesn't belong there? If you don't agree with them, fine. But your post is the one with no credibility.

No because he has been the best TE three years running and his situation if anything has improved IE; no longer the only receiving threat.

 

[fourd]

Lost all credability by not having Gates in Tier 1

Why, because you would put him there? He gave his reasons why and these are HIS rankings. Will Gates be in the top tier forever? Or do you wait until he has fallen out to project he doesn't belong there? If you don't agree with them, fine. But your post is the one with no credibility.

No because he has been the best TE three years running and his situation if anything has improved IE; no longer the only receiving threat.

Ignoring that he wasn't near the best last year, I guess my bigger point would be your comment that his list lost all credibility due to having Gates one teir lower than you think he should be. I thought that was a bit harsh. Especially for a player that can't even practice yet and will have huge question marks entering the season. Personally, at this time of the year I'll let someone else draft him.

 

[FUBAR]

Lost all credability by not having Gates in Tier 1

Why, because you would put him there? He gave his reasons why and these are HIS rankings. Will Gates be in the top tier forever? Or do you wait until he has fallen out to project he doesn't belong there? If you don't agree with them, fine. But your post is the one with no credibility.

No because he has been the best TE three years running and his situation if anything has improved IE; no longer the only receiving threat.

Ignoring that he wasn't near the best last year, I guess my bigger point would be your comment that his list lost all credibility due to having Gates one teir lower than you think he should be. I thought that was a bit harsh. Especially for a player that can't even practice yet and will have huge question marks entering the season. Personally, at this time of the year I'll let someone else draft him.

I'd still place him in tier 1, simply because I'd definitely draft him before the others (aside from Witten), but I can see where someone would lower him to tier 2 due to those concerns.

 

[barista]

To be honest I don't see these players fall into 5 tiers. I see them as 3 tiers:

1: Gates/Witten/Winslow/Gonzo

2: Heap/Cooley/Clark/Daniels/Davis

3: Scheffler/Crumpler/Shockey/h.Miller

then there's a drop to the rest... including watson/z.miller (maybe not z).

 

[Marc Levin]

I think your answer is in the first two posts after your OP. Wheelhouse and vincentvega122 nailed it.

Gates, Winslow should share tier one with Witten and Gonzo is being overlooked this year for no damn good reason. 16 games of LJ can only improve his prospects. Re: Witten, I understand the love and it is deserved. It's jus5t that he is not what Gates and Gonzo were a couple years ago - the only ones who were critical to their team's passing offense. Now, the top-3 TEs must share some of the limelight as every NFL offense is trying to incorporate the TE as a receiver.

On the other hand, I could not agree more with your assessment of Heap and Crumpler representing good value.

 

[Two Deep]

Lost all credability by not having Gates in Tier 1

Why, because you would put him there? He gave his reasons why and these are HIS rankings. Will Gates be in the top tier forever? Or do you wait until he has fallen out to project he doesn't belong there? If you don't agree with them, fine. But your post is the one with no credibility.

No because he has been the best TE three years running and his situation if anything has improved IE; no longer the only receiving threat.

Ignoring that he wasn't near the best last year, I guess my bigger point would be your comment that his list lost all credibility due to having Gates one teir lower than you think he should be. I thought that was a bit harsh. Especially for a player that can't even practice yet and will have huge question marks entering the season. Personally, at this time of the year I'll let someone else draft him.

He wasn't? Maybe a bit, sorry.

 

[Marc Levin]

Lost all credability by not having Gates in Tier 1

Why, because you would put him there? He gave his reasons why and these are HIS rankings. Will Gates be in the top tier forever? Or do you wait until he has fallen out to project he doesn't belong there? If you don't agree with them, fine. But your post is the one with no credibility.

No because he has been the best TE three years running and his situation if anything has improved IE; no longer the only receiving threat.

Ignoring that he wasn't near the best last year, I guess my bigger point would be your comment that his list lost all credibility due to having Gates one teir lower than you think he should be. I thought that was a bit harsh. Especially for a player that can't even practice yet and will have huge question marks entering the season. Personally, at this time of the year I'll let someone else draft him.

He wasn't? Maybe a bit, sorry.

4 FPs away from being #1 TE last year in non-PPR leagues on 30-ish fewer targets. Gates = In PPR leagues, Gates was a bit further back last year, but his 3-4 years of service as a top-3 TE indicate he is destined for MORE good years, not fewer. Shelf life on top-TEs is extremely long.

The top-10 TE seasons from 2003-2007 include only four names: Gates, Gonzo, Witten, Winslow.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

To be honest I don't see these players fall into 5 tiers. I see them as 3 tiers:

1: Gates/Witten/Winslow/Gonzo

2: Heap/Cooley/Clark/Daniels/Shockey

3: Scheffler/Crumpler/Davis/h.Miller

then there's a drop to the rest... including watson/z.miller (maybe not z).

That's more like it. Good list.

 

[fourd]

Lost all credability by not having Gates in Tier 1

Why, because you would put him there? He gave his reasons why and these are HIS rankings. Will Gates be in the top tier forever? Or do you wait until he has fallen out to project he doesn't belong there? If you don't agree with them, fine. But your post is the one with no credibility.

No because he has been the best TE three years running and his situation if anything has improved IE; no longer the only receiving threat.

Ignoring that he wasn't near the best last year, I guess my bigger point would be your comment that his list lost all credibility due to having Gates one teir lower than you think he should be. I thought that was a bit harsh. Especially for a player that can't even practice yet and will have huge question marks entering the season. Personally, at this time of the year I'll let someone else draft him.

He wasn't? Maybe a bit, sorry.

4 FPs away from being #1 TE last year in non-PPR leagues on 30-ish fewer targets. Gates = In PPR leagues, Gates was a bit further back last year, but his 3-4 years of service as a top-3 TE indicate he is destined for MORE good years, not fewer. Shelf life on top-TEs is extremely long.

The top-10 TE seasons from 2003-2007 include only four names: Gates, Gonzo, Witten, Winslow.

What's the shelf life on tes that just had the surgery Gates did? I'd like to know he will still be able to run before drafting him where one would have to, and since he very well may miss all of training camp I think any of the other 3 are far less risk for the same production.

 

[Marc Levin]

Off-season surgery on a dislocated toe scares you regarding 6-year pro Gates' shelf life?

 

[podunker]

The bottom line is Gates, Gonzo, and Winslow all have some question marks surrounding them. Whether it be a toe injury, QB issue, head case, additional weapons on offense with them, knee, etc. ............Thus making Witten a much safer bet and another reason I have him ranked #1 and in a tier by himself. He is the only one of the bunch I would feel comfortable taking in the late 3rd early 4th round this year. I would probably wait if I didn't get him and take Heap in round 7 or 8. Gonzo is one of the greats of all time and Gates is on his way to being that. The jury is still out on Winslow. Depending on were you draft them, all four will definetly help your fantasy team.

 

[fourd]

Off-season surgery on a dislocated toe scares you regarding 6-year pro Gates' shelf life?

You're absolutely right. After much thought and soul-searching I've moved Gates back to the spot that he belongs. I plan on taking him in the first round of every draft from here on.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

I think everyone here grossly underestimates Donald Lee. He'll be top 10.

 

[gianmarco]

The bottom line is Gates, Gonzo, and Winslow all have some question marks surrounding them. Whether it be a toe injury, QB issue, head case, additional weapons on offense with them, knee, etc. ............Thus making Witten a much safer bet and another reason I have him ranked #1 and in a tier by himself. He is the only one of the bunch I would feel comfortable taking in the late 3rd early 4th round this year. I would probably wait if I didn't get him and take Heap in round 7 or 8. Gonzo is one of the greats of all time and Gates is on his way to being that. The jury is still out on Winslow. Depending on were you draft them, all four will definetly help your fantasy team.

Agree 100%. Gates, Gonzo, and Winslow are amazing choices for 2-4 but all have question marks as pointed out. How much weight you put on those question marks is a matter of preference. There is absolutely no denying what Gates has done at the TE position the last 4 yrs. And I have 0 problem with anyone keeping him #1 at all. In fact, I started a thread about this recently and many still do. But, I also have 0 problem with anyone dropping him to #2 due to the concerns brought up above. To some, they are minor concerns, to others, they are larger. Any time you have an injury like this where his timetable is still quite uncertain and we have no reports in order to gauge his process, some people are going to be worried. I would feel MUCH better if they told me he'd be out until Week 3 but that he was currently running and improving vs. him MAYBE being back week 1 but no reports as to any progress thus far.FWIW, I own Gates in one league and in a recent startup dynasty draft I took Witten as the #1 TE off the board. I also agree with a couple other posters that bashing someone's rankings just bc they aren't in line with your thinking is pretty silly and does nothing but stifle discussion and promote group-think. Anyone can look at last year's rankings and regurgitate them to call them 2008 projections. It's another thing to try and predict changes based on changes in situations, talent, etc. Not everyone's projections will be correct. But, it's not as if this guy dropped Gates to the #7 TE spot or into Tier 3 or lower. If you want to disagree and keep Gates #1, then fine. But some of the negative feedback based on the fact his opinion differs slightly from yours is a bit uncalled for, IMO.

 

[gianmarco]

Also, FWIW:

(ROTOWORLD) Jason Witten will play more snaps as an actual wide receiver this season, according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.Analysis: The Cowboys have a glaring hole at No. 2 receiver and Witten is their second best pass catcher anyway. He could split out wide especially often if second-round TE Martellus Bennett comes along quickly. Bennett hasn't drawn great offseason reviews so far. Still, all this sounds good for Witten's fantasy value. He has a very good shot to be the most league's productive tight end in 2008.

 

[FUBAR]

To be honest I don't see these players fall into 5 tiers. I see them as 3 tiers:

1: Gates/Witten/Winslow/Gonzo

2: Heap/Cooley/Clark/Daniels/Shockey

3: Scheffler/Crumpler/Davis/h.Miller

then there's a drop to the rest... including watson/z.miller (maybe not z).

That's more like it. Good list.

another minor "correction"

1: Gates/Witten/Winslow/Gonzo

2: Heap/Cooley/Clark

3: Scheffler/Shockey/Daniels/Davis

4: Crumpler/H.Miller/Z.Miller/Lee

I see a noticeable difference between 3 and 4 here.