Point Per Reception (1 Viewer)

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

There has been lots of discussion in the recent years regarding points per reception. Two of the FBG staff members even wrote articles based on the PPR premise...Shick and Pasquino.

Assuming some standard lineup (or close to it) of 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 1D and 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), which would you go with as your flex in a PPR league?

RB? WR? TE?

Now the obvious answer would be to put in the next best guy. For instance, if your 3rd RB was a top 10 RB, but your 4th WR was not even in the top 50 - duh, easy choice. Go with the RB for the flex.

But what if they were equal when compared to their respective positions?

For instance, what if for your flex spot you were deciding between the 25th RB, the 37th WR, or the 13th TE?

(In a 12 team league, 24 RBs, 36WRs, and 12TEs at a minimum must start overall.)

What if you then have the very next best RB, WR, and TE?

Which would you play as your flex in a PPR?

And please add comments/thoughts regarding strategy and why you chose what you did?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

There has been lots of discussion in the recent years regarding points per reception. Two of the FBG staff members even wrote articles based on the PPR premise...Shick and Pasquino.Assuming some standard lineup (or close to it) of 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 1D and 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), which would you go with as your flex in a PPR league?RB? WR? TE?Now the obvious answer would be to put in the next best guy. For instance, if your 3rd RB was a top 10 RB, but your 4th WR was not even in the top 50 - duh, easy choice. Go with the RB for the flex.But what if they were equal when compared to their respective positions?For instance, what if for your flex spot you were deciding between the 25th RB, the 37th WR, or the 13th TE?(In a 12 team league, 24 RBs, 36WRs, and 12TEs at a minimum must start overall.)What if you then have the very next best RB, WR, and TE?Which would you play as your flex in a PPR?And please add comments/thoughts regarding strategy and why you chose what you did?

HTF,PPR favors consistent WRs.For example, let's say I want to get at least 10 points from my Flex spot.I can put in a RB and hope he either scores a TD or gets 100 yards (or a few catches).ORI can put in a receiver that consistently gets 8+ targets and will likely make 5 or more catches for 50 yards.I'd go with the receiver, simply because 50 yards and 5 catches are easier to get than 100 yards rushing.TDs are random events for the most part (especially for the FLEX guys at the trail end of your lineup). The 5th-8th guy in your offense will be lucky to get 8 TDs, but you can't get 1/2 a TD a week. So - since that 1 TD event is unpredictable, I'd go with the most likely event for scoring, which is a handful of catches.I haven't plotted that sort of thing, but I'm thinking a consistency from week-to-week or variation of a WR scoring in PPR is lower than for RBs, especially beyond the Top 50 fantasy players.

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

There has been lots of discussion in the recent years regarding points per reception. Two of the FBG staff members even wrote articles based on the PPR premise...Shick and Pasquino.Assuming some standard lineup (or close to it) of 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 1D and 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), which would you go with as your flex in a PPR league?RB? WR? TE?Now the obvious answer would be to put in the next best guy. For instance, if your 3rd RB was a top 10 RB, but your 4th WR was not even in the top 50 - duh, easy choice. Go with the RB for the flex.But what if they were equal when compared to their respective positions?For instance, what if for your flex spot you were deciding between the 25th RB, the 37th WR, or the 13th TE?(In a 12 team league, 24 RBs, 36WRs, and 12TEs at a minimum must start overall.)What if you then have the very next best RB, WR, and TE?Which would you play as your flex in a PPR?And please add comments/thoughts regarding strategy and why you chose what you did?

HTF,PPR favors consistent WRs.For example, let's say I want to get at least 10 points from my Flex spot.I can put in a RB and hope he either scores a TD or gets 100 yards (or a few catches).ORI can put in a receiver that consistently gets 8+ targets and will likely make 5 or more catches for 50 yards.I'd go with the receiver, simply because 50 yards and 5 catches are easier to get than 100 yards rushing.TDs are random events for the most part (especially for the FLEX guys at the trail end of your lineup). The 5th-8th guy in your offense will be lucky to get 8 TDs, but you can't get 1/2 a TD a week. So - since that 1 TD event is unpredictable, I'd go with the most likely event for scoring, which is a handful of catches.I haven't plotted that sort of thing, but I'm thinking a consistency from week-to-week or variation of a WR scoring in PPR is lower than for RBs, especially beyond the Top 50 fantasy players.

Good stuff, Jeff. But I noticed your analysis factors around consistency. Since you can't get a 1/2 TD, you are the type of guy that would rather just KNOW you are getting points from receptions and yards.But others would argue that if a guy is going to score 8 tds in a season, then he has a 50% shot at getting one that week. And right there, that's an extra 6 points.Anyway, I decided to use last year's stats to see how this would play out. I used the FBG scoring system.The 25RB was Lewis; the 37th WR was Muhammad; and the 13th TE was DaClark.The results are somewhat ironic:Lewis: 906 ru yds; 3 tds; 32 receptions; 191 re yds; 1 tdHis combined yards puts him at just slightly under 70 yards/gm. --- 7 pointsHis 32 receptions (easy # was just lucky) adds 2 points in a PPR league. ---- 2 points4 total tds is not .25 tds/wk as Jeff pointed out (even though it works out that way based on average). Instead, we could look at it like it is an extra 6 points every 4th week.Lewis: 7 pts + 2 pts (from the yards and receptions) = 9 points (w/ an extra 6 every 4th week)Muhammad: 64-750-4His yards gives him just under 50/gm. --- 5 ptsHis 64 receptions (again just lucky with the #) gives him 4 receptions/gm. --- 4 pts4 total tds is .25/wk, but based on Jeff's premise - it is better to look at it as 0 pts from tds most weeks, and 6 pts from a td every 4th weekMuhammad: 5 pts + 4 pts (from yards and receptions) = 9 points (w/ an extra 6 every 4th week)DaClark: 37-488-4About 30 yards a week --- 3 pts2.3 receptions/wk --- 2.3 pts4 total tdsDaClark: 3 pts + 2.3 pts (from yards and receptions) = 5.3 points (w/ an extra 6 every 4th week)Ironic that all 3 of them had exactly 4 tds. But if anything, that makes the analysis easier b/c they each have an equal shot at bringing in that extra 6/wk.Anyway, if anything, the above just shows us not to use a TE (5.3/wk plus tds).Whereas the 25th RB and the 37th WR both received exactly 9 points per week, plus an equal shot at TDs.So if anything, this only shows how much the PPR equalizes things.But it does very little to provide evidence of which is definitely better - the RB or the WR.

 

[AB in DC]

Taking a look at Dodds's cheatsheet,

RB25 is projected at 163 fp

WR37 is projected at 171 fp

TE13 is projected at 124 fp

Looks pretty even between RB and WR.

Lets look at average backups:

RB30 is projected at 147 fp

WR42 is projected at 152 fp

TE18 is projected at 97 fp

Basically, if your RB3 is better than average and your WR4 is worse than average for their slots, play the RB3. If vice versa, play your WR4. Otherwise it's a tossup.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

There has been lots of discussion in the recent years regarding points per reception. Two of the FBG staff members even wrote articles based on the PPR premise...Shick and Pasquino.Assuming some standard lineup (or close to it) of 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 1D and 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), which would you go with as your flex in a PPR league?RB? WR? TE?Now the obvious answer would be to put in the next best guy. For instance, if your 3rd RB was a top 10 RB, but your 4th WR was not even in the top 50 - duh, easy choice. Go with the RB for the flex.But what if they were equal when compared to their respective positions?For instance, what if for your flex spot you were deciding between the 25th RB, the 37th WR, or the 13th TE?(In a 12 team league, 24 RBs, 36WRs, and 12TEs at a minimum must start overall.)What if you then have the very next best RB, WR, and TE?Which would you play as your flex in a PPR?And please add comments/thoughts regarding strategy and why you chose what you did?

HTF,PPR favors consistent WRs.For example, let's say I want to get at least 10 points from my Flex spot.I can put in a RB and hope he either scores a TD or gets 100 yards (or a few catches).ORI can put in a receiver that consistently gets 8+ targets and will likely make 5 or more catches for 50 yards.I'd go with the receiver, simply because 50 yards and 5 catches are easier to get than 100 yards rushing.TDs are random events for the most part (especially for the FLEX guys at the trail end of your lineup). The 5th-8th guy in your offense will be lucky to get 8 TDs, but you can't get 1/2 a TD a week. So - since that 1 TD event is unpredictable, I'd go with the most likely event for scoring, which is a handful of catches.I haven't plotted that sort of thing, but I'm thinking a consistency from week-to-week or variation of a WR scoring in PPR is lower than for RBs, especially beyond the Top 50 fantasy players.

Good stuff, Jeff. But I noticed your analysis factors around consistency. Since you can't get a 1/2 TD, you are the type of guy that would rather just KNOW you are getting points from receptions and yards.But others would argue that if a guy is going to score 8 tds in a season, then he has a 50% shot at getting one that week. And right there, that's an extra 6 points.Anyway, I decided to use last year's stats to see how this would play out. I used the FBG scoring system.The 25RB was Lewis; the 37th WR was Muhammad; and the 13th TE was DaClark.The results are somewhat ironic:Lewis: 906 ru yds; 3 tds; 32 receptions; 191 re yds; 1 tdHis combined yards puts him at just slightly under 70 yards/gm. --- 7 pointsHis 32 receptions (easy # was just lucky) adds 2 points in a PPR league. ---- 2 points4 total tds is not .25 tds/wk as Jeff pointed out (even though it works out that way based on average). Instead, we could look at it like it is an extra 6 points every 4th week.Lewis: 7 pts + 2 pts (from the yards and receptions) = 9 points (w/ an extra 6 every 4th week)Muhammad: 64-750-4His yards gives him just under 50/gm. --- 5 ptsHis 64 receptions (again just lucky with the #) gives him 4 receptions/gm. --- 4 pts4 total tds is .25/wk, but based on Jeff's premise - it is better to look at it as 0 pts from tds most weeks, and 6 pts from a td every 4th weekMuhammad: 5 pts + 4 pts (from yards and receptions) = 9 points (w/ an extra 6 every 4th week)DaClark: 37-488-4About 30 yards a week --- 3 pts2.3 receptions/wk --- 2.3 pts4 total tdsDaClark: 3 pts + 2.3 pts (from yards and receptions) = 5.3 points (w/ an extra 6 every 4th week)Ironic that all 3 of them had exactly 4 tds. But if anything, that makes the analysis easier b/c they each have an equal shot at bringing in that extra 6/wk.Anyway, if anything, the above just shows us not to use a TE (5.3/wk plus tds).Whereas the 25th RB and the 37th WR both received exactly 9 points per week, plus an equal shot at TDs.So if anything, this only shows how much the PPR equalizes things.But it does very little to provide evidence of which is definitely better - the RB or the WR.

and well constructed.I agree - let's throw out the TDs for now.The supposition though is that you have "the next best player" at either position. I would argue that top WR4 (#37) is easier than getting the top RB3 (#25). (We will toss out the TE for now).I was in a league last year that had 2 flex positions - RB/WR/TE - and PPR. I had one week where I started 3 TEs (Gonzo, Kinney and Bubba Franks the week everyone was hurt in GB). Why? I went with the highest likelihood of targets. All 3 TEs were more likely to get 5/50 than any other WR I had that week (started 3 and had byes - too much detail, trust me).So the thing about PPR that you point is correct - it does equalize the "back end" of the talent pool, so you essentially have a larger pool of players to choose from. Instead of 5-10 RBs at 8-11 points left for flex, you also have 10-20 WRs that will score about the same.I think the consistency from week to week would show us something. Let me look at JLewis and MMuhammad in detail.

 

[wannabee]

I think PPR also makes bye weeks more manageable. A low end WR like Engram is usually good for 6-10 points in PPR each week. For a WR, that is 3 catches for 30 yards. PPR makes it so low end WRs are more valuable than RBs that are purely TD guys. In TD leagues, Brandon Jacobs is a decent bye week replacement. In PPR, I prefer Engram to Jacobs, especially because Engram is available a few rounds later. So, to me, PPR changes the way you handle (and choose) your bench players, especially in leagues allowing flex players.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

My main Redraft league is PPR. And at the top of the draft Last year I went rb-wr-wr-rb . this is a start 3wr league. At pick 5. I got Edge-Holt-Burleson-Dunn. Now Bruleson is a but the other 3 worked out fine.

this year I have pick 3 and Im doing the exact same thing. RB-WR-WR-RB.

Bottom of the draft I'd go -RB-RB-WR-WR

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Jamal Lewis:

Average FPG (15 games):11.0

Standard Deviation: 6.4

Based on that, 11 of 15 games should fall between 4.6 and 17.5 points. (rounding)

Check - 11 of 15 do.

Muhsin Muhammad:

Average FPG (15 games):10.9

Standard Deviation: 5.8

Based on that, 11 of 15 games should fall between 5.1 and 16.6 points. (rounding)

Check - 10 of 15 do. (close enough)

Let's eliminate TDs now.

Jamal Lewis:

Average FPG (15 games): 9.4

Standard Deviation: 4.4

Based on that, 11 of 15 games should fall between 5.0 and 13.9 points. (rounding)

Check - 11 of 15 do.

Muhsin Muhammad:

Average FPG (15 games): 9.3

Standard Deviation: 4.4

Based on that, 11 of 15 games should fall between 4.9 and 13.6 points. (rounding)

Check - 11 of 15 do.

What's all that mean?

Take away the TDs and you see they're really REALLY the same player.

I was thinking the standard deviation may be less for a WR in PPR, but that didn't pan out much here.

This probably warrants more investigation - an article for next year perhaps.

 

[Zorph's Warriors]

There has been lots of discussion in the recent years regarding points per reception. Two of the FBG staff members even wrote articles based on the PPR premise...Shick and Pasquino.Assuming some standard lineup (or close to it) of 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 1D and 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), which would you go with as your flex in a PPR league?RB? WR? TE?Now the obvious answer would be to put in the next best guy. For instance, if your 3rd RB was a top 10 RB, but your 4th WR was not even in the top 50 - duh, easy choice. Go with the RB for the flex.But what if they were equal when compared to their respective positions?For instance, what if for your flex spot you were deciding between the 25th RB, the 37th WR, or the 13th TE?(In a 12 team league, 24 RBs, 36WRs, and 12TEs at a minimum must start overall.)What if you then have the very next best RB, WR, and TE?Which would you play as your flex in a PPR?And please add comments/thoughts regarding strategy and why you chose what you did?

HTF,PPR favors consistent WRs.For example, let's say I want to get at least 10 points from my Flex spot.I can put in a RB and hope he either scores a TD or gets 100 yards (or a few catches).ORI can put in a receiver that consistently gets 8+ targets and will likely make 5 or more catches for 50 yards.I'd go with the receiver, simply because 50 yards and 5 catches are easier to get than 100 yards rushing.TDs are random events for the most part (especially for the FLEX guys at the trail end of your lineup). The 5th-8th guy in your offense will be lucky to get 8 TDs, but you can't get 1/2 a TD a week. So - since that 1 TD event is unpredictable, I'd go with the most likely event for scoring, which is a handful of catches.I haven't plotted that sort of thing, but I'm thinking a consistency from week-to-week or variation of a WR scoring in PPR is lower than for RBs, especially beyond the Top 50 fantasy players.

Good stuff, Jeff. But I noticed your analysis factors around consistency. Since you can't get a 1/2 TD, you are the type of guy that would rather just KNOW you are getting points from receptions and yards.But others would argue that if a guy is going to score 8 tds in a season, then he has a 50% shot at getting one that week. And right there, that's an extra 6 points.Anyway, I decided to use last year's stats to see how this would play out. I used the FBG scoring system.The 25RB was Lewis; the 37th WR was Muhammad; and the 13th TE was DaClark.The results are somewhat ironic:Lewis: 906 ru yds; 3 tds; 32 receptions; 191 re yds; 1 tdHis combined yards puts him at just slightly under 70 yards/gm. --- 7 pointsHis 32 receptions (easy # was just lucky) adds 2 points in a PPR league. ---- 2 points4 total tds is not .25 tds/wk as Jeff pointed out (even though it works out that way based on average). Instead, we could look at it like it is an extra 6 points every 4th week.Lewis: 7 pts + 2 pts (from the yards and receptions) = 9 points (w/ an extra 6 every 4th week)Muhammad: 64-750-4His yards gives him just under 50/gm. --- 5 ptsHis 64 receptions (again just lucky with the #) gives him 4 receptions/gm. --- 4 pts4 total tds is .25/wk, but based on Jeff's premise - it is better to look at it as 0 pts from tds most weeks, and 6 pts from a td every 4th weekMuhammad: 5 pts + 4 pts (from yards and receptions) = 9 points (w/ an extra 6 every 4th week)DaClark: 37-488-4About 30 yards a week --- 3 pts2.3 receptions/wk --- 2.3 pts4 total tdsDaClark: 3 pts + 2.3 pts (from yards and receptions) = 5.3 points (w/ an extra 6 every 4th week)Ironic that all 3 of them had exactly 4 tds. But if anything, that makes the analysis easier b/c they each have an equal shot at bringing in that extra 6/wk.Anyway, if anything, the above just shows us not to use a TE (5.3/wk plus tds).Whereas the 25th RB and the 37th WR both received exactly 9 points per week, plus an equal shot at TDs.So if anything, this only shows how much the PPR equalizes things.But it does very little to provide evidence of which is definitely better - the RB or the WR.

If the RB and WR are equal, why would you take a WR? If you look at 37 RB and 49 WR, you see that WR will score more points.So going RB/WR is better than going WR then RB.Zorph

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

Looks like a tie at the moment.

Maybe those that think there is a clear cut answer might be mistaken.

I don't think it is so cut and dry.

 

[WildGeneral]

It depends on the way the question is asked, IMO.

If we're talking about a draft strategy, I say that you have to take the #25 RB for the flex position. Simply put, you can never have enough depth at RB because of the number of injuries at that position. If your starting RB's get injured, you've got somebody to slide into those slots from your roster, which is a luxury you may not have if you draft a WR for the same purpose.

However, if you're asking who should a person start in the flex position after the draft has already taken place, I think the answer is easy: You play matchups. If the #37 WR is playing against a team that will likely be losing for most of the game, he should benefit from a compensatory passing game. Likewise, a team that is a heavy favorite often pounds the ball on the ground and therefore, the RB, from that team would likely be a better fit for your flex starter.

The consensus from this post is that these 2 positions (WR/RB) are generally the same, in terms of output over the course of the season, but I don't think they would be the same if somebody actually did the same retroactively-based analysis using matchups. In that case, I bet that playing the logical matchups over the course of 17 weeks would likely yield a weekly output higher than the one previously shown (9+1.5/week).

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

I was just re-reading this thread from prior to last season.

Now that more have tried the PPR scoring system than in the past, I was hoping to see if there is more feedback this time.

Forget the original premise of who to start at flex: RB or WR. Instead, think about it this way - who to draft?

If you are staring at two players - one is a RB and one is a WR - and you project their points to be fairly close based on the PPR scoring system - which is the better guy to draft?

 

[Mystery Achiever]

IIf you are staring at two players - one is a RB and one is a WR - and you project their points to be fairly close based on the PPR scoring system - which is the better guy to draft?

I'd probably go RB on relative scarcity alone.

 

[Pictus Cat]

It depends on the way the question is asked, IMO.

If we're talking about a draft strategy, I say that you have to take the #25 RB for the flex position. Simply put, you can never have enough depth at RB because of the number of injuries at that position. If your starting RB's get injured, you've got somebody to slide into those slots from your roster, which is a luxury you may not have if you draft a WR for the same purpose.

However, if you're asking who should a person start in the flex position after the draft has already taken place, I think the answer is easy: You play matchups. If the #37 WR is playing against a team that will likely be losing for most of the game, he should benefit from a compensatory passing game. Likewise, a team that is a heavy favorite often pounds the ball on the ground and therefore, the RB, from that team would likely be a better fit for your flex starter.

The consensus from this post is that these 2 positions (WR/RB) are generally the same, in terms of output over the course of the season, but I don't think they would be the same if somebody actually did the same retroactively-based analysis using matchups. In that case, I bet that playing the logical matchups over the course of 17 weeks would likely yield a weekly output higher than the one previously shown (9+1.5/week).

You will draft backups for RB and WR. Start the one that will give you the most points that week.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Give me the RB everytime. Think of it this way - if RB25 is gonna be a full-time starter like Jamal Lewis, what are the chances that he gets you a goose egg? Compare that to WR37. I know the numbers say RB25 and WR37 are even, but when all things are equal, you have to go with the RB.

 

[The Ref]

The trick is to have a RB25 and a WR37 on your bench and play the matchups.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

To further the discussion....

What about taking a RB3 that gets a decent amount of points from targets / receptions?

That is, what about taking a guy like LaMont Jordan or Caddy (both projected as RB3s by Dodds) but also to have >30 catches?