POP & LOCK > RB2 TIER > Who's a lock... and whose bubble will pop? (1 Viewer)

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Concept is simple.... 

Pick 3 players you expect to be a LOCK to finish as a RB2 OR BETTER
Pick 3 players whose bubbles you expect to POP and they finish below the RB2 tier

Ratings based on FFCalc ADP PPR Scoring.

After checking the boxes above, offer your rationale below. 

More to come.... 

POP & LOCK - RB1

 

[Ilov80s]

I am surprised Gaskin is the leader of the pop poll.  I like him a lot more than Davis and Hunt, that is for sure. 

 

[Gally]

My locks were Mixon, Dobbins, and Montgomery. 

• If Mixon stays healthy he will challenge top 10 RB.  Health is the only question. 
  
• Dobbins will do enough to stay in RB2 range because of the offense around him.  Should be an easy RB2 finish
  
• Montgomery is better than he is given credit for.  I do have worry that Williams will siphon off touches but if he gets the 60-70% share he will be an easy RB2
  

My pops were Carson, Gaskin and Davis

• Carson runs hard but always gets hurt.  I don't see that changing.  He will put up RB2 numbers while healthy but won't play enough to finish as an RB2 for season long stats
  
• Gaskin was a nice find and he will be ok but will need TD's to get into the RB2 conversation.  I don't think he gets there.  He is a nice Flex and bye week fill in but not good enough for RB2
  
• Davis petered out after the hot start.  I think he is just a guy.  Atlanta will pass a lot and that will hurt his overall numbers.  Again, he will be like Gaskin in that he has a use but won't quite get in the RB2 tier.  
  

 

[jtd13]

I am surprised Gaskin is the leader of the pop poll.  I like him a lot more than Davis and Hunt, that is for sure. 

I think a lot of people view him as replaceable. He might be, but you need someone to replace him with. It sounds like he's the clear cut starter in camp so far, and is pretty involved in the pass game. He was not one of my choices to pop.

 

[Ilov80s]

I think a lot of people view him as replaceable. He might be, but you need someone to replace him with. It sounds like he's the clear cut starter in camp so far, and is pretty involved in the pass game. He was not one of my choices to pop.

and he has just always been good. Last year he was on pace for 1500 yards. He had no less than 1300 yards four straight years at Washington. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I am surprised Gaskin is the leader of the pop poll.  I like him a lot more than Davis and Hunt, that is for sure. 

I was out completely due to physical limitations (built more like a scat back) and the team looking to claim backs in the offseason, but then I heard Harris Football saying he added weight this offseason & came into camp looking jacked. 

If I can see confirmation of this in preseason I’m back to thinking he’s one of the better values. 
 

Edited due to inaccurate info. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I like CEH to pop as well. And I’m gonna say Carson & Mixon. I hate Mixon’s OL, but love his projected volume, provided his foot is right. 

CEH can be a 3rd round league winner. McKinnon can’t stay on the field & the revamped OL could open some big holes - plus added emphasis on CEH as a receiver out of the backfield. If he’s getting those wheel routes that Hunt got in his KC, days he’s gonna score a bunch of points. 

 

[jtd13]

I was out completely due to physical limitations (built more like a scat back) and that he’s part of the old coaching regime (the new regime has tried to claim players, but failed), but then I heard Harris Football saying he added weight this offseason & came into camp looking jacked. 

If I can see confirmation of this in preseason I’m back to thinking he’s one of the better values. 

Just a note- this is not accurate. Gaskin joined the dolphins as part of Flores' 1st draft class.

They did try to claim Kerryon, and they'll definitely try to add someone else if Ahmed's camp injury is serious. But I don't think they'll add someone to be the starter (e.g. a big trade). 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Just a note- this is not accurate. Gaskin joined the dolphins as part of Flores' 1st draft class.

They did try to claim Kerryon, and they'll definitely try to add someone else if Ahmed's camp injury is serious. But I don't think they'll add someone to be the starter (e.g. a big trade). 

Ah, thank you for that - my bad. Will edit my post. 

gaskin is a dude I’m gonna hawk closely this preseason. If he does indeed look bigger/stronger/faster then I’ll be much higher on him at his ADP.

 

[tangfoot]

As far as locks go, I am only comfortable with two: CEH and Carson.

Pops are Swift, Sanders and Hunt

 

[Ilov80s]

I was out completely due to physical limitations (built more like a scat back) and the team looking to claim backs in the offseason, but then I heard Harris Football saying he added weight this offseason & came into camp looking jacked. 

If I can see confirmation of this in preseason I’m back to thinking he’s one of the better values. 
 

Edited due to inaccurate info. 

Yeah I am not necessarily targeting him but given their ADP, Gaskins is a RB in this range I could stomach taking. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Yeah I am not necessarily targeting him but given their ADP, Gaskins is a RB in this range I could stomach taking. 

Yeah, I’m not at all super psyched to draft him, but I’d probably take him ahead of Henderson at this point. Maybe ahead of Chase Edmonds as well. Maybe. 

Depending a lot on what I see in the preseason, and if I do go stud TE (which more and more I’m leaning towards) 

I was completely out based on what I’d known from the offseason, but I’m warming back up. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Yeah, I’m not at all super psyched to draft him, but I’d probably take him ahead of Henderson at this point. Maybe ahead of Chase Edmonds as well. Maybe. 

Depending a lot on what I see in the preseason, and if I do go stud TE (which more and more I’m leaning towards) 

I was completely out based on what I’d known from the offseason, but I’m warming back up. 

In Underdog best ball he's going in a decent spot IMO. The WRs I really like are typically gone and we get into a bit of a WR tier drop IMO. Sutton, Chark, Deebo, Michael Thomas, Devonta Smith are all guys I would be able to pass over for Gaskins if I felt I really needed a RB there. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Depending a lot on what I see in the preseason, 

With only 3 preseason games and the extra regular season game I’m wondering how much we’ll see starting RBs playing. I’m thinking it could be less than a quarter of real game action total.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

With only 3 preseason games and the extra regular season game I’m wondering how much we’ll see starting RBs playing. I’m thinking it could be less than a quarter of real game action total.

That occurred to me, and it's unfortunate. But we should see something when the starters take the field. 

In this case, I just want to see how he looks, since that whole "gained 15 lbs of muscle in the offseason" has become such a cliché. 

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

Dobbins and Henderson i think are the biggest x-factors where both can end up in either category based on what kind of volume they end up getting for the season, especially red zone looks. I feel like talent is there with both to hit it big if given that workhorse type role. I guess Sanders can be in this category as well with all the new additions to the RB room and the new QB, not to mention the eagles unwillingness to feed him the ball last season. but i'm betting the new staff will fix the latter at least.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Dobbins and Henderson i think are the biggest x-factors where both can end up in either category based on what kind of volume they end up getting for the season, especially red zone looks. I feel like talent is there with both to hit it big if given that workhorse type role. 

I like Dobbins a lot more than Henderson, and feel he's one of the biggest values in the "dead zone" (and I'm already sick of that term). 

That said, Dobbins coaches have been maddening in their usage. He's clearly the best back on the team, but they'll likely insist on getting JAG Gus, and maybe Justice Hill or Ty'Son Williams involved. It won't make sense, but it's what they do. 

But if they don't - and if Dobbins can get something like Mark Ingram's rushing workload (~200+ carries) + 30+ receptions he should be a fine low-end RB1/RB2 with upside. 

To me that's the only question mark for Dobbins. 

With Henderson, I have concerns about durability & talent. Right now opportunity is his strongest attribute, and I can't shake the feeling that the Rams are going to bring in a veteran. The worst case scenario for Henderson owners is the Rams going all the way through preseason seeing what they have in the unheralded backups, then everyone drafts, then they bring in a veteran back to share the load/use in short yardage. I have him as more of a pop for sure, but these are indeed two players that could go either way. 

If I'm at the 11-12 turn & Dobbins slides to the end of the 3rd round, I'd have a very difficult time not taking him there. By the time I draft at the end of the month, I'm guessing Henderson is (at least) a 5th round pick, and maybe he climbs to the 4th. 

 

[-OZ-]

I like Dobbins a lot more than Henderson, and feel he's one of the biggest values in the "dead zone" (and I'm already sick of that term). 

That said, Dobbins coaches have been maddening in their usage. He's clearly the best back on the team, but they'll likely insist on getting JAG Gus, and maybe Justice Hill or Ty'Son Williams involved. It won't make sense, but it's what they do. 

But if they don't - and if Dobbins can get something like Mark Ingram's rushing workload (~200+ carries) + 30+ receptions he should be a fine low-end RB1/RB2 with upside. 

To me that's the only question mark for Dobbins. 

With Henderson, I have concerns about durability & talent. Right now opportunity is his strongest attribute, and I can't shake the feeling that the Rams are going to bring in a veteran. The worst case scenario for Henderson owners is the Rams going all the way through preseason seeing what they have in the unheralded backups, then everyone drafts, then they bring in a veteran back to share the load/use in short yardage. I have him as more of a pop for sure, but these are indeed two players that could go either way. 

If I'm at the 11-12 turn & Dobbins slides to the end of the 3rd round, I'd have a very difficult time not taking him there. By the time I draft at the end of the month, I'm guessing Henderson is (at least) a 5th round pick, and maybe he climbs to the 4th. 

Dobbins could very well be a lesser version of Derrick Henry - the usage his first two, even three years of his career. Clearly the best but totally underutilized.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Dobbins could very well be a lesser version of Derrick Henry - the usage his first two, even three years of his career. Clearly the best but totally underutilized.

It's maddening. 

If only I had a crystal ball that would tell me his usage this year. No Ingram, so that helps. Could they really give Gus Edwards & Justice Hill the carries Ingram left? I find it hard to believe they won't give him 200 touches. 

Sure, he take a little hit from LJax rushing, but at least 2021 Dobbins can be a 2019 Ingram, right? 

 

[-OZ-]

It's maddening. 

If only I had a crystal ball that would tell me his usage this year. No Ingram, so that helps. Could they really give Gus Edwards & Justice Hill the carries Ingram left? I find it hard to believe they won't give him 200 touches. 

Sure, he take a little hit from LJax rushing, but at least 2021 Dobbins can be a 2019 Ingram, right? 

Logically, absolutely. I actually like dobbins a lot. But coaches gotta do their thing.

 

[wgoldsph]

It's maddening. 

If only I had a crystal ball that would tell me his usage this year. No Ingram, so that helps. Could they really give Gus Edwards & Justice Hill the carries Ingram left? I find it hard to believe they won't give him 200 touches. 

Sure, he take a little hit from LJax rushing, but at least 2021 Dobbins can be a 2019 Ingram, right? 

If Dobbins runs like he did at the end of the season, he can put up rb1 numbers with 225 touches on the season imo.  He's one of my locks.  CEH is my other one, grabbed him no1 in the rookie draft last year because he's got top fantasy rb upside and that hasn't changed.  Lastly Mixon. Mixon won't play the whole season, but that cin offense is on the rise and while Mixon is playing he'll be a top 5 rb.  He's gonna score enough to be in the top 30 at the end of the year, which might not make him rb2 in most leagues (16 team league here) but for the weeks you have him he's golden.

I don't like "pop" as a negative, cause I kept thinking it meant to "pop off", so I'm just gonna call em trash -
Montgomery, a bad rb who faced an incredibly easy schedule with nobody else to share the ball with.  Even if Cohen ends up not returning they've got the rookie there to take him off the field when he gets stoned by quality defense.  Sanders is possibly someone I wouldn't draft period even if he's sitting there in the last round, there's just too many upside guys.  The eagles don't like him.  Boston fricken Scott is getting half the carries in training camp.  Maybe he'd be good with a change of scenery but it wouldn't surprise me to see him in a three way committee with a running qb at some point this year.  Gaskin, he's a jag.  Even if he's come into camp jacked he's still a jag.  Ahmed produced nearly identical numbers when Gaskin was hurt and nobody wants him to start.  This is where sanders should go. Third round pick? Less?