Positional Scarcity question (1 Viewer)

[rockaction]

Waller has been producing what he has in part perhaps because of WIlliams missing games.

In this specific situation, this is absolutely true, which is why historical numbers are merely an additional tool in the kit. Williams was the Raiders' red zone and end zone threat the games he played; Waller didn't see one end zone target until Williams was hurt. Note that all of Waller's touchdowns have come with Williams missing. 

But that's specifics, and leads one away from VBD and generalities, so I'm not sure how germane it is to the conversation. It's just true. 

 

[Biabreakable]

In this specific situation, this is absolutely true, which is why historical numbers are merely an additional tool in the kit. Williams was the Raiders' red zone and end zone threat the games he played; Waller didn't see one end zone target until Williams was hurt. Note that all of Waller's touchdowns have come with Williams missing. 

But that's specifics, and leads one away from VBD and generalities, so I'm not sure how germane it is to the conversation. It's just true. 

Interesting info about the red zone splits. I wasn't aware of that. Just speculating.

That is why I brought up Cooks numbers from last season as another guide. 

Waller only has 7 games played so far as well. Thats not quite as good as a 8 week sample. I am guessing Waller ends up with more targets than Cook had, but less than the 132 he is on pace for.

 

[rockaction]

I am guessing Waller ends up with more targets than Cook had, but less than the 132 he is on pace for.

I'd bet you're right. Waller will likely (barring injury) wind up TE5 or greater, but the amount of targets he was getting is silly for a tight end, even if Gruden wants to emphasize them. Funny thing is, even with the likely reduction in targets, one is likely to see the "positive" regression to the mean in terms of targets in proximity to the end zone. As someone who rosters both Williams and Waller, I just hope Oakland gets into track meets every week.  

 

[ratbast]

Can’t you trade for the Stud WR and then trade again for a better TE? Go get the underachieving TE that someone has a 2nd TE. 

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

all things being equal, you should only apply traditional VBD logic when deciding if you want a top 3 TE or a top tier WR.  below Kelce, Kittle, Engram and maybe Ertz variance takes over and you're pretty much throwing dice.

 

[rockaction]

all things being equal, you should only apply traditional VBD logic when deciding if you want a top 3 TE or a top tier WR.  below Kelce, Kittle, Engram and maybe Ertz variance takes over and you're pretty much throwing dice.

Waller and Hooper are sort of banging on the door there. 

 

[barackdhouse]

Waller and Hooper are sort of banging on the door there. 

#1 & 2 TEs in my leagues. Through 8 games. 7 for Waller. Variance would have to account for some really big games from those top 3 and smallish ones from Waller and Hooper for the rest of the way. Ertz is TE9 in PPG. 

 

[rockaction]

#1 & 2 TEs in my leagues. Through 8 games. 7 for Waller. Variance would have to account for some really big games from those top 3 and smallish ones from Waller and Hooper for the rest of the way. Ertz is TE9 in PPG. 

Yep. But his point about VBD seems to largely hold regardless.

 

[barackdhouse]

Hooper is good for WR3 in my TE premium leagues. Waller is WR5. 

 

[da_budman]

Took awhile for someone to bring up my favorite part of team management but yall got there.  Where I stand in the league as it relates to making the playoffs or not is a big part of why I do or do not make a particular move. 

The number of teams that make the playoffs are a big part of that discussion.  In alot of the past years  in my main league I have startd off slow so im in a win now frame of mind.  This year Im sitting at 6-2 high in points and even with 5 games to go im all but a lock to make the playoffs. 

Ive made some moves that people have questioned  but they were all geared to trying to win that superbowl.  ( getting rid of KC players for example because they play denver, NE, and Chicago  playoff  weeks)  another thing Ive done is roster the jets and giants D.... being behind the 8 ball I would never waste a roster spot for 2 days...why did I do it? A because I could and B more importantly those 2 teams play miami twice and wash once during the playoff weeks. 

  One thing that alot of people try to do is  trade depth for starters  towards the end of the trading  window.  The other thing that most dont seem to take into consideration are the playoff matchups.  

 

[Deamon]

Hooper is good for WR3 in my TE premium leagues. Waller is WR5. 

And quickly dropping.

@Bayhawks what did you end up doing? 

 

[Don Hutson]

Positional scarcity is so much more interesting on draft day.  Or the lead up to draft day.  Once the draft happens, owners have who they have.  And they usually own players that they like.  So positional scarcity encompasses far more pre-draft than post-draft.

 

[Bayhawks]

And quickly dropping.

@Bayhawks what did you end up doing? 

Acquired Thomas. If Waller doesn’t return to early season numbers; seems like a clear correct choice.

 

[Deamon]

Acquired Thomas. If Waller doesn’t return to early season numbers; seems like a clear correct choice.

Think it was anyways. Good job.