Possible Top of the Draft Permutations (1 Viewer)

[Bob Magaw]

in response to a post on another board which prompted this reply... it is somewhat rambling, but the gist (executive summary in case bottom part makes your head explode) is that KC could look to move up, as they could be devastated if they don't emerge with j. long OR ryan... similarly, BAL might try & get either of these guys (they have needs at QB & LT) if they drop... in fact, KC might want to trade to 1.2 or 1.3, if they are spooked by team like BAL trading in front of them to steal last of these remaining two key players (& perhaps ONLY two that best fit KCs needs)...

possible trade partners for KC could be STL or ATL (depending on whether MIA takes c. long, j. long, or less likely, ryan)... for BAL, OAK...

a key point here, is the top four picks in the draft all appear to have multiple needs & right fit of available players to satisfy at least one of them (if not more... you could go further & say ALL the other teams in top 10 could be happy with players that fall to them... KC might be singular among top 10 in that they could get lucky, but they could also very likely get shut out)... KC is perhaps first team we could point to that could get scalded if they stand pat, sit on their hands passively & hope draft breaks right for them... they may HAVE to be proactive...

BAL could also be a player here in that with a surgical move, which they could have the ammo to make, they could parlay the 1.8 (PLUS) into a key building block, foundational, cornerstone QB or LT type... potentially leapfrogging KC, which could also be jockeying for these exact same players... KC obviously in a better position to move up further, as they can offer the 1.5 in exchange, instead of 1.8... though not exactly likely even one of these moves gets made (i'm pretty sure rams will listen to offers... ATL new GM schooled in NE, which wheeled & dealed on draft day... not the foggiest notion what al davis has in store ), it is within the realm of possibility that BOTH teams could move up (hypothetically if KC takes j. long in trade up, jets could be another team at 1.6 interested in bryant)...

i could also see NE wanting to trade down, & CIN & NO possibly wanting to trade up, for either ellis or rivers... both teams could be looking at both these players (though NO might be happy with one of the CBs?)... wonder if eagles 1st & lito shepard as bargaining chip would be enough to move up near NEs spot... they have need at CB, but shepard will want ton of money next year, & they just got rid of samuel for that same reason, so seemingly NOT a good fit... any team that takes on shepard is committed to paying him a monster contract soon...

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"i was more pessimistic any trade would get done into top 5, with a draft in which no consensus #1 & anywhere from 6-8 deep in blue chip, elite talent...

but you make good points that KC & BAL could want to make a surgical move & has ammo to do with it...

agree KC could be one of most bummed teams in draft if they don't come away with j. long or bryant...

it now looks (based on latest info from JT), j. long will be gone 1.2 (if not 1.1), & ATL could than take bryant at 1.3... even in unlikely event MIA goes ryan, it could still be c. long than ATL taking j. long... so KC might want to trade with us or ATL... but maybe ATL won't want to deal?

ATL might also go for dorsey, so if OAK took mcfadden or gholston as expected, ryan could fall to KC... but they would be taking a chance... also, BAL could than trade ahead of them into OAK's 1.4 spot & snare ryan... newsome was in about this spot & tried to trade up with MIN to get leftwich in the clusterfreak that ended up with ravens getting suggs, disastrously trading back into the later 1st for boller, & vikes emerging OK with stud DT kevin williams...

what would be OAKs fall back plan? they could well lose mcfadden AND gholston if they made such a move (jets almost certainly take one of them, if BAL takes ryan in move up... if KC targets j. long, BAL doesn't move up AND ATL takes dorsey, ryan could be in mix for jets)... NE could be wildcard...

IF jets took gholston, mcfadden could drop to OAK anyways (at 1.8), which could be brilliant maneuvering & manipulation of the draft... if jets take mcfadden (lets say ryan is off the board), NE could easily take gholston (pats impossible to predict, some draftniks expect mckelvin, brandon albert is ultra-versatile OL at possible need position & surging up the board), possibly ellis could be OAK's plan B (scooping CIN, who may want him at 1.9, though keith rivers could be fall back plan for THEM... as could OT?)...

what if STL traded with KC, swapping 1.2 & 1.5? if chiefs target is j. long, ATL could than turn to ryan or dorsey... if they take ryan, OAK could also take dorsey, but mcfadden or gholston a distinct possibility... in this scenario, after almost taking dorsey at 1.2, rams could trade down, add picks & get him anyways...

if KC targeted ryan, ATL could get j. long or dorsey... again, if OAK takes gholston or mcfadden, j. long could fall into rams laps in that scenario... at 1.5 (when it looks like they could easily take him at 1.2 if no trade takers)...

HOWEVER, IF STL trades with KC, possible BAL lurks in the shadows & trades into OAK spot, either for ryan (if KC opted for j. long), or j. long to replace ogden (if KC takes ryan)...

but it would be unbelievably good fortune for rams to trade down & still emerge with primary targets j. long or dorsey anyways (hey, even c. long could be in play here depending on how the draft breaks)... even if j. long AND dorsey were both gone (KC could take long at 1.2 ((in spot traded with STL)) & either ATL or OAK might want dorsey), gholston could be a nice consolation prize, or plan B...

as desperate as KC is for OL help, it is hard to believe they could be confident in croyle as their future QB (same with BAL & their QB situation?)... mayock thinks bryant has manning/brady-like intangibles, which if true, moves from 1.4 to 1.2 or 1.8 to 1.4 will seem well worth it in a few years... the same could be said for j. long if he is LT...

also, as bad as KC needs a franchise QB, they are arguably just as in need of OL reinforcements... this could effectively increase chance KC moves up to assure getting one of these guys... if MIA takes c. long, 1.3 would assure one or the other, but will ATL want to risk a move down? a j. long or bryant pick at 1.1 might force KCs hands to deal up to STL at 1.2, if they are indeed must have players that their draft is hinging on...

all these possible permutations in the draft space are like trying to unravel a bowl of spaghetti, & are making me dizzy... like the scene in princess bride where wally shawn tries to outguess which of cary elwes' hands held the poison (both )...

 

[jestertj]

I'm assuming "bryant" is supposed to me Matt Ryan?

 

[Kirby]

I'm assuming "me" is supposed to be be?

 

[Boston]

While it's probably not going to happen I would not count out the Patriots from trading up as well. They don't get into this neighborhood too often. If they feel a player like Gholston or Chris Long is really special I could see the Pats making a play on one of them. They have an extra third rounder so they do have a little ammo.

Overall (and I just stated this in the Patriot thread) I feel the Pats #7 pick is a moving target valuewise. Until they're on the clock and we see who is available it's hard to judge who may have interest in that pick. Guys like Ryan, McFadden or Ellis could really be targets if they are there at #7 (and they all could be gone as well). I don't picture the Pats trading down any further than the #15 range but this scenario is very easy to see, especially if the player they are targeting is a guy like Albert, Rivers or Harvey who they can probably obtain a little lower than #7 (and get something else in return as well).

 

[Bob Magaw]

I'm assuming "bryant" is supposed to me Matt Ryan?

corrected - thanx...

 

[Atomic Punk]

I toyed with the idea of Baltimore moving into Oakland's spot and jump in front of KC. This would give Davis an additional pick (3rd?) to recoup those he already traded away. It would also give him the added satisfaction of screwing over one of his divisional rivals, the Chiefs. For Baltimore, it guarantees one of either Ryan or J. Long (assuming this trade would not occur until the Raiders are on the clock).

So what would Oakland be left with at #8:

C. Long

J. Long

Dorsey

Ellis

McFadden

Gholston

Ryan

Theses 7 are likely the top tier, so who could they be targeting at #8 ... Harvey, Rivers, OT (Clady, Otah, Williams, Albert ... take your pick)? The drop off after 7 is what made me disregard this possibility in my mock.

 

[Bob Magaw]

I toyed with the idea of Baltimore moving into Oakland's spot and jump in front of KC. This would give Davis an additional pick (3rd?) to recoup those he already traded away. It would also give him the added satisfaction of screwing over one of his divisional rivals, the Chiefs. For Baltimore, it guarantees one of either Ryan or J. Long (assuming this trade would not occur until the Raiders are on the clock).So what would Oakland be left with at #8:C. LongJ. LongDorseyEllisMcFaddenGholstonRyanTheses 7 are likely the top tier, so who could they be targeting at #8 ... Harvey, Rivers, OT (Clady, Otah, Williams, Albert ... take your pick)? The drop off after 7 is what made me disregard this possibility in my mock.

though in a lot of mocks i see ellis go to CIN at 1.9?mcfadden could possibly drop if NYJ doesn't take him... in a lot of mocks the raiders take him at 1.4 (if not gholston), but BAL would take ryan or long in that spot...dark horses might be mendenhall or stewart at 1.8? mayock thinks mendenhall best RB in draft, so if mcfadden at 1.4 for OAK makes sense, mendenhall or stewart later might make even more sense later... WR like kelly or thomas? kelly was projected at 1.11 to BUF (as well as thomas, if they don't get CB), so might not be a huge reach at 1.8... add rivers to morrison & howard at LB... that might be good value & spot for him? what is the going rate to move from 1.8 to 1.4? maybe more than a 3rd? if i were OAK, i might want more than that...maybe KC move to 1.2 or 1.3 is more plausible?

 

[Gatorman]

Couldn't Miami be a trading partner here. The dolphins want to move down, and KC gets the player they want no matter. Miami may be willing to take what KC would give for the #2 slot, just to get another pick in this draft...

 

[renesauz]

Dude...you're going to give yourself a migraine trying to run through all of these possibilities. And it's all in vain, because what really happens is unlikely to match ANY of your postulated scenarios!

 

[Atomic Punk]

I toyed with the idea of Baltimore moving into Oakland's spot and jump in front of KC. This would give Davis an additional pick (3rd?) to recoup those he already traded away. It would also give him the added satisfaction of screwing over one of his divisional rivals, the Chiefs. For Baltimore, it guarantees one of either Ryan or J. Long (assuming this trade would not occur until the Raiders are on the clock).So what would Oakland be left with at #8:C. LongJ. LongDorseyEllisMcFaddenGholstonRyanTheses 7 are likely the top tier, so who could they be targeting at #8 ... Harvey, Rivers, OT (Clady, Otah, Williams, Albert ... take your pick)? The drop off after 7 is what made me disregard this possibility in my mock.

though in a lot of mocks i see ellis go to CIN at 1.9?mcfadden could possibly drop if NYJ doesn't take him... in a lot of mocks the raiders take him at 1.4 (if not gholston), but BAL would take ryan or long in that spot...dark horses might be mendenhall or stewart at 1.8? mayock thinks mendenhall best RB in draft, so if mcfadden at 1.4 for OAK makes sense, mendenhall or stewart later might make even more sense later... WR like kelly or thomas? kelly was projected at 1.11 to BUF (as well as thomas, if they don't get CB), so might not be a huge reach at 1.8... add rivers to morrison & howard at LB... that might be good value & spot for him? what is the going rate to move from 1.8 to 1.4? maybe more than a 3rd? if i were OAK, i might want more than that...maybe KC move to 1.2 or 1.3 is more plausible?

I supose a RB may make some sense for the Raiders but I'm hoping they build their lines instead. The value difference between the 1.4 and 1.8 is 400 points which is roughly the 18th pick in the 2nd round.Assuming C. Long and Dorsey are gone, my ideal scenario for the Raiders would be to trade down to NO, still pick one of the players you noted above and get a high 2nd to boot.Agree with the last poster ... thinking about all of the possibilities is dizzying after awhile.

 

[nerangers]

I think Atlanta and San Diego could be trading partners. The Chargers only have one pick in the first four rounds. Atlanta has six in the first three rounds. I don't think the Chargers have a pressing need that they couldn't slide down a few picks to gain an additional pick.

I have the Patriots trading with either the Saints or the Broncos if Sedric Ellis is still on the board. Like Boston mentioned, it is not likely that the Patriots would move down past the first half of the first round. It is a good spot to get the LB or CB that is needed.

 

[kremenull]

in response to a post on another board which prompted this reply... it is somewhat rambling, but the gist (executive summary in case bottom part makes your head explode) is that KC could look to move up, as they could be devastated if they don't emerge with j. long OR ryan... similarly, BAL might try & get either of these guys (they have needs at QB & LT) if they drop... in fact, KC might want to trade to 1.2 or 1.3, if they are spooked by team like BAL trading in front of them to steal last of these remaining two key players (& perhaps ONLY two that best fit KCs needs)...

possible trade partners for KC could be STL or ATL (depending on whether MIA takes c. long, j. long, or less likely, ryan)... for BAL, OAK...

a key point here, is the top four picks in the draft all appear to have multiple needs & right fit of available players to satisfy at least one of them (if not more... you could go further & say ALL the other teams in top 10 could be happy with players that fall to them... KC might be singular among top 10 in that they could get lucky, but they could also very likely get shut out)... KC is perhaps first team we could point to that could get scalded if they stand pat, sit on their hands passively & hope draft breaks right for them... they may HAVE to be proactive...

BAL could also be a player here in that with a surgical move, which they could have the ammo to make, they could parlay the 1.8 (PLUS) into a key building block, foundational, cornerstone QB or LT type... potentially leapfrogging KC, which could also be jockeying for these exact same players... KC obviously in a better position to move up further, as they can offer the 1.5 in exchange, instead of 1.8... though not exactly likely even one of these moves gets made (i'm pretty sure rams will listen to offers... ATL new GM schooled in NE, which wheeled & dealed on draft day... not the foggiest notion what al davis has in store ), it is within the realm of possibility that BOTH teams could move up (hypothetically if KC takes j. long in trade up, jets could be another team at 1.6 interested in bryant)...

i could also see NE wanting to trade down, & CIN & NO possibly wanting to trade up, for either ellis or rivers... both teams could be looking at both these players (though NO might be happy with one of the CBs?)... wonder if eagles 1st & lito shepard as bargaining chip would be enough to move up near NEs spot... they have need at CB, but shepard will want ton of money next year, & they just got rid of samuel for that same reason, so seemingly NOT a good fit... any team that takes on shepard is committed to paying him a monster contract soon...

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"i was more pessimistic any trade would get done into top 5, with a draft in which no consensus #1 & anywhere from 6-8 deep in blue chip, elite talent...

but you make good points that KC & BAL could want to make a surgical move & has ammo to do with it...

agree KC could be one of most bummed teams in draft if they don't come away with j. long or bryant...

it now looks (based on latest info from JT), j. long will be gone 1.2 (if not 1.1), & ATL could than take bryant at 1.3... even in unlikely event MIA goes ryan, it could still be c. long than ATL taking j. long... so KC might want to trade with us or ATL... but maybe ATL won't want to deal?

ATL might also go for dorsey, so if OAK took mcfadden or gholston as expected, ryan could fall to KC... but they would be taking a chance... also, BAL could than trade ahead of them into OAK's 1.4 spot & snare ryan... newsome was in about this spot & tried to trade up with MIN to get leftwich in the clusterfreak that ended up with ravens getting suggs, disastrously trading back into the later 1st for boller, & vikes emerging OK with stud DT kevin williams...

what would be OAKs fall back plan? they could well lose mcfadden AND gholston if they made such a move (jets almost certainly take one of them, if BAL takes ryan in move up... if KC targets j. long, BAL doesn't move up AND ATL takes dorsey, ryan could be in mix for jets)... NE could be wildcard...

IF jets took gholston, mcfadden could drop to OAK anyways (at 1.8), which could be brilliant maneuvering & manipulation of the draft... if jets take mcfadden (lets say ryan is off the board), NE could easily take gholston (pats impossible to predict, some draftniks expect mckelvin, brandon albert is ultra-versatile OL at possible need position & surging up the board), possibly ellis could be OAK's plan B (scooping CIN, who may want him at 1.9, though keith rivers could be fall back plan for THEM... as could OT?)...

what if STL traded with KC, swapping 1.2 & 1.5? if chiefs target is j. long, ATL could than turn to ryan or dorsey... if they take ryan, OAK could also take dorsey, but mcfadden or gholston a distinct possibility... in this scenario, after almost taking dorsey at 1.2, rams could trade down, add picks & get him anyways...

if KC targeted ryan, ATL could get j. long or dorsey... again, if OAK takes gholston or mcfadden, j. long could fall into rams laps in that scenario... at 1.5 (when it looks like they could easily take him at 1.2 if no trade takers)...

HOWEVER, IF STL trades with KC, possible BAL lurks in the shadows & trades into OAK spot, either for ryan (if KC opted for j. long), or j. long to replace ogden (if KC takes ryan)...

but it would be unbelievably good fortune for rams to trade down & still emerge with primary targets j. long or dorsey anyways (hey, even c. long could be in play here depending on how the draft breaks)... even if j. long AND dorsey were both gone (KC could take long at 1.2 ((in spot traded with STL)) & either ATL or OAK might want dorsey), gholston could be a nice consolation prize, or plan B...

as desperate as KC is for OL help, it is hard to believe they could be confident in croyle as their future QB (same with BAL & their QB situation?)... mayock thinks bryant has manning/brady-like intangibles, which if true, moves from 1.4 to 1.2 or 1.8 to 1.4 will seem well worth it in a few years... the same could be said for j. long if he is LT...

also, as bad as KC needs a franchise QB, they are arguably just as in need of OL reinforcements... this could effectively increase chance KC moves up to assure getting one of these guys... if MIA takes c. long, 1.3 would assure one or the other, but will ATL want to risk a move down? a j. long or bryant pick at 1.1 might force KCs hands to deal up to STL at 1.2, if they are indeed must have players that their draft is hinging on...

all these possible permutations in the draft space are like trying to unravel a bowl of spaghetti, & are making me dizzy... like the scene in princess bride where wally shawn tries to outguess which of cary elwes' hands held the poison (both )...

Don't know who the hell "bryant" is, but I couldn't disagree more with you in that KC would clearly serve their best interest by trading DOWN, not UP.......They have as many holes as anybody in the league outside of ATL and will need to collect extra picks to fill them.....It would be smart for them to pass on whomever is there at #5 and move down to accumulate more draft picks.......And wherever they end up in the 1st Rd, even if it's down to Dallas' pick (for their 2 1sts for Dallas to get McFadden, let's say), they should take the best available OL with their 1st pick, and also grab another OL by their 3rd pick......Trading up to get J.Long or anybody else would be shortsighted and pretty much throw this season in the dumper.......sure you'd be a favorite for the #1 pick next year, but these days that's more of a burden (contract $$$$$) than a reward.....It's simple.....Chiefs, and all these other teams with way too many holes, TRADE DOWN if at all possible.......

 

[massraider]

No one in the top 5 only has one hole. The "trade down and get more picks, because Team X has too many holes" theory never made sense to me. Is anyone saying that the Raiders are one back away from the playoffs? Are the Falcons a defensive tackle away from respectability?

No. So while KC has a lot of holes, if they can get a cornerstone tackle, or a stud QB at 5, they better get him. Especially because those players aren't available in free agency any more. Anyone take a look at the free agent QB and OT the last two years? Pretty bad.

I also happen to think the Pats are gonna stay put, and take a top tier talent. This is a team with very few holes, and because of a trade, have the opportunity to add a blue-chipper to their roster. They took Richard Seymour in a similar spot. I think they wouldn't mind adding a Sed Ellis, or Vernon Gholston to their team.

I think the Rams, and Matt Ryan, will decide the top half of the draft. The Rams can go in every direction (except DMC) at #2, and that'll affect the next 3 spots, at least.

And Matt Ryan, and whoever decides they have to get him, will have major repercussions as well. The Falcons, Jets, and Ravens may all make a move for him. I happen to think if there's any movement in the top 10, Ryan will be the prize. Not that I am so sure he is a franchise QB, but I just think the situation is there for teams that may trade down. As a Raiders fan, I could envision a scenario where Jake Long, Chris Long, and Dorsey is gone, and the Jets or Ravens want to leapfrog KC.

 

[kremenull]

No one in the top 5 only has one hole. The "trade down and get more picks, because Team X has too many holes" theory never made sense to me. Is anyone saying that the Raiders are one back away from the playoffs? Are the Falcons a defensive tackle away from respectability?

No. So while KC has a lot of holes, if they can get a cornerstone tackle, or a stud QB at 5, they better get him. Especially because those players aren't available in free agency any more. Anyone take a look at the free agent QB and OT the last two years? Pretty bad.

I also happen to think the Pats are gonna stay put, and take a top tier talent. This is a team with very few holes, and because of a trade, have the opportunity to add a blue-chipper to their roster. They took Richard Seymour in a similar spot. I think they wouldn't mind adding a Sed Ellis, or Vernon Gholston to their team.

I think the Rams, and Matt Ryan, will decide the top half of the draft. The Rams can go in every direction (except DMC) at #2, and that'll affect the next 3 spots, at least.

And Matt Ryan, and whoever decides they have to get him, will have major repercussions as well. The Falcons, Jets, and Ravens may all make a move for him. I happen to think if there's any movement in the top 10, Ryan will be the prize. Not that I am so sure he is a franchise QB, but I just think the situation is there for teams that may trade down. As a Raiders fan, I could envision a scenario where Jake Long, Chris Long, and Dorsey is gone, and the Jets or Ravens want to leapfrog KC.

Well, I don't know if you read the post correctly or if it is need of some clarification, maybe a little bit of both. But I stated that ANY team with numerous holes should look to move down, if at all possible. KC was used as an example. IMO, ATL, KC, and MIA would certainly qualify as teams with numerous holes. One thing that I need to differentiate here, is holes and upgrades. IMO, having a hole means you don't have a decent starter even available to play the position on your roster. So, the 3 aforementioned teams have clear "holes" on their roster. Every team in the league has at least one hole or is in need of an upgrade or two here or there, and that is why they participate in the draft. Being in need of upgrade(s) certainly could land you in the top half of the draft, but with the standard number of picks in any given draft, you look to add those pieces.

And KC is the perfect example to use of those teams, because a) they have only 3 starting caliber OLs and lack a couple of quality starters throughout their defense, and b) they don't have that many picks in this draft, at least not in the first few rounds, whereas the Dolphins and Falcons do have extra picks early, thus trading down for them is still probably desired, but not a necessity ala KC, IMO.

So trading down and getting 2 quality OL, who may be just as good as Jake Long, or at least close, as well as adding a 2nd Rd QB like Brohm, Henne, or Flacco, who could be as good as Ryan, would allow them to fill their most prominent holes with still early picks.....There's a whole lot of assumptions that these higher-rated players (ranked by people in discussions in here) are clearly ranked ahead of some of the lower-ranked players......and from NFL teams' perspectives, the gap in these rankings are often not as wide as we tend to believe.......Bottom line is, for drafts this deep, and this is certainly considered as deep of a draft as there have been in years, get more quantity than (perceived) upper-end quality if you need multiple starters.........

 

[Bob Magaw]

the rams were a team with a lot of holes when vermiel traded up with parcells to get pace... that worked pretty well, so maybe there is more than one way to build through the draft...

not that i think long is as good as pace, but there is a precedent where a move up for an elite OL worked out well (i don't recall the exact composition of STL OL at that time, & if KC is in worse state relative to it?)...

another way to look at it is that the chiefs are probably quite a few players away from a deep playoff run... no matter what their draft strategy, or even if they preserve all their picks... so if a few year rebuild is is order, & they can't possibly fill all their holes in a year, adding a franchise-type QB or OT, a cornerstone player they can build around, could help more than several lower graded players?

some scouts think brandon albert can play OT... if so, that might not be a bad pick at 1.5... he may be the second best OT in the draft, though he tends to get listed as an OG... he could be better than williams, otah & cherilus...

lets ask a hypothetical question... maybe you don't personally think ryan is a franchise QB... but IF KC is convinced he IS, & a dramatic upgrade over croyle (mayock says he has manning/brady-like intangibles), do you still think they should pass? it is a cardinal maxim in football that if you have a chance to get a franchise QB (& don't have one already), you HAVE to take him...

maybe we differ in how far the chiefs have fallen? you said if KC got ryan or long it would be shortsighted & the season would be in the "dumper"... will it be any different if they parlay 1.5 into DAL two picks... would getting lower graded cherilus & whoever else they get with 2nd 1st rounder rescue the season? i'm not sure that extra player or two they would get by trading down instead of up would change their prospects this season that dramatically...

thats why i don't agree, relative to that position, having a shot at getting a franchise QB or OT represents throwing the team in the dumper... i think KC realizes they had to blow up the OL & this is a process that will take a few years... i don't have the regional or homer pulse of the team, but i can't imagine locals have massive expectations for the upcoming season... i'm guessing they must be tempered...

* you could be right, kremenull?

but sometimes, i think even for a rebuilding team, it makes sense to make a bold move & get a potentially great player, rather than a few potentially marginal ones... using the rams as an example again, a few years ago, STL at a higher spot in the draft than what DAL first 1st rounder would represent, got alex barron... a pick before that, saints got jamaal brown... brown turned into a pro bowler, barron looks like a marginal talent with big question marks that they may be looking to replace (MIA, STL & ATL most likely to take j. long if no preemptive move up to get him)... long looks like a much safer player... some scouts think he could be a dominant, pro bowl type OT, & one of best run blockers in several years...

while it would no doubt be nice to add bodies to the OL, by settling for more marginal talents, it also increases the chance that KC whiffs on those picks... THAT risk has to be considered as well... if chiefs drop down, settle for lesser players, & whiff on pick/s wouldn't that also be devastating to their rebuilding hopes... if so, a potential cornerstone player may be TOO important to getting their rebuild started the right way, to NOT make a move for...

there is some risk at top of draft, too (what if long is gallery?)... personally, i'd rather take my chances with long than cherilus... the other risk KC would face by dropping down too far, is to lose out on some of their targets... what if cherilus is gone? that would be devastating, too... what would plan B be... baker from USC? he is FAR less certain to have a distinguished NFL career... there is far more question whether he can even start...

by having an "adding bodies" philosophy, it increases the chance that one of those bodies is a washout anyways, & it really didn't add bodies... (if you settle for a two lesser players instead of getting one great player, & one of the two lesser players ends up being backup material anyways, the net in the end as far as starters is concerned, was just getting one lesser player instead of one great player)...

** as a sort of thought experiment, i can use STL as a proxy for KC... they are already in the 1.2, a pick (along with 1.3) i have advocated KC thinking about moving up for... there are also some similarities in that an offense that played at a high level a few years ago is coming off a horrific season, OL problems were big cause, some of their players are aging (pace, holt, little)... the rams have multiple holes on both sides of the ball like KC... in my estimation (not living in STL but following team closely), i don't get the sense that management views this is a super bowl or bust type season, nor do fans have those kind of expectations (linehan needs rams to be more competitive, though, or he is almost certainly gone)...

now, i do agree that for rams team, it MIGHT make sense for them to trade down... but than again, a dissimilarity is that at least STL has some potentially good OL returning from injury (pace, incognito, stetterstrom, added bell in free agency) whereas KC may only have two OL starter caliber players... also, bulger much more proven at QB than croyle...

if for instance STL were to swap with KC, they could still end up with dorsey (or gholston, ellis), a guy they could be targeting at 1.2 anyways... even if the value chart dictated it was OK (it wouldn't), no way i would want the rams to trade their 1.2 for DAL two 1st rounders... thats just too far, & would have too much attendant risk that one of the two players doesn't pan out...

& as many holes as the rams have, i have no problem with them sitting tight & taking j. long (or c. long, or dorsey), if he is there... another obvious difference between STL & KC, is they don't have to pay extra to get to 1.2, they are already there... to make analogy more precise, what if STL had to cough up their 2.2 to stay at 1.2, otherwise they fall to 1.5 (a true mirror opposite situation to KC), would i advocate it... probably not, but that is because imo, at 1.5, they could still find several good fits to their biggest weaknesses, which doesn't appear to be case with chiefs... also, i would want to look at a guy like albert, & if he is viewed as close to as good a prospect as long (a proposition i'm sure the KC are investigating), than i would rather have 1.5 & 2.2 than just the 1.2... that 2.2 might turn into talib, doucet, calais campbell, all need positions for STL... BTW, if the rams had brodie croyle at QB, i absolutely would endorse trading 1.5 & 2.2 for the 1.2 (imo, tarvaris jackson has more upside & is more of a sure thing than croyle, & jackson is one of the few biggest question mark among starting QB in the league, with croyle, of course)...

lets say you have a boat that has several holes... even worse than not having an optimal amount of patch material... would be to find out you spilled some of the patch material you had...

while on the subject of holes, it should be noted that their are big & little holes (no jokes please )... OT & QB are big holes... position like OGs (& safeties, to illustrate, though i kind of like pollard, at least) are little holes... they can sometimes be found in free agency, & in some cases off the street (rams stetterstrom looked like promising OG & was i think a 7th rounder)... the pressure to "add bodies" in the draft could be mitigated in this way... centers also typically go later... if KC parted with 2nd to move up but kept 3rd, they might get center like pollack (?) or notre dame's sullivan...

if KC is in bad shape, i just don't think an extra 2nd (the possible cost of moving up to take ryan or long) will really be difference between great or awful season... they probably are what they are this season no matter what... it is practically a given that they are playing for the future, NOW (didn't herm sound like they need something like 6-8 starters from the draft??? if so, this seems preposterous, but is also tacit acknowledgement they could be pretty far from a highly competitive team, are in full blown youth mode, & he is doing his part to more properly frame realistic expectations for the upcoming season)... the question than becomes... what is the best way to build for the future...

i'll qualify this, because i don't know if KC is convinced ryan or long are franchise type players (i'll further qualify per above, also depending on how close albert is graded to long by their scouts)... but IF they do, imo they would be foolish for KC to not exhaust all their options to make sure one of them lands on their roster...

* i agree that with ryan chiefs would be more likely to be appalingly bad & less competitive this season... but they may be staring at that posibility regardless of the scenario (trade up, down, staying put)... i also agree with you that picking high a few years in a row carries attendant salary cap stretching implications... but isn't necessarily bad... CLE seems to have benefited from multiple high picks in recent season, parlaying them into elite, blue chip talents like joe thomas & braylon edwards (winslow is outstanding & probably would be even better except for his self-inflicted damage... but if he had been better, browns might not have been in position to get thomas )... no doubt joe thomas is expensive... but wouldn't you agree everybody thinks oif this expense as well spent money... CLE also rebuilt with outstanding free agent OG steinbach (& they should have had bentley, too, but for injury misfortune... they could have an incredible OL, partly assembled from free agency, where bentley also came from)... you can get guards & centers in free agency... if long is an elite OT, you just can't get guys like that in free agency or trades... they are too valuable, & teams lock them up & don't let them go...