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Post-Draft Bloom 100 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sigmund Bloom
- Start date
Cassius
Footballguy
Great stuff Bloom.
Aside from durability concerns of which we're all aware, what do you think Bradford lacks that prevents him from being an elite fantasy QB prospect? Or is that it? I can't find a lot of criticism about his game other than his shoulder, yet nobody seems excited about him, and I'm not sure why.
Also, on Demariyus Thomas, it sounds like his game is very raw, mostly because he wasn't asked to run a lot of routes in college. I've been thinking he might be a couple years away and that it might be better to avoid him in drafts, and target him a year or so down the road. Thoughts?
Lastly, why do you think Dwyer fell? Is there something you see that you think the NFL might not be missing? Or concerns they have that may be overblown, like the system he played in or the drug test or something?
Thanks.
Aside from durability concerns of which we're all aware, what do you think Bradford lacks that prevents him from being an elite fantasy QB prospect? Or is that it? I can't find a lot of criticism about his game other than his shoulder, yet nobody seems excited about him, and I'm not sure why.
Also, on Demariyus Thomas, it sounds like his game is very raw, mostly because he wasn't asked to run a lot of routes in college. I've been thinking he might be a couple years away and that it might be better to avoid him in drafts, and target him a year or so down the road. Thoughts?
Lastly, why do you think Dwyer fell? Is there something you see that you think the NFL might not be missing? Or concerns they have that may be overblown, like the system he played in or the drug test or something?
Thanks.
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my non PPR rankings are linked at the beginning of the article - WRs and TEs drop a lot, RBs rise a lot. No mixed rankings on the site for NonPPR, but LBs would rise compared to WRs/TEs.
I really don't think Bradford lacks much to prevent him from being a perennial starting fantasy QB in a few years other than proven durability. He's athletic, he processes the field quickly with a quick release, he's hyperaccurate when he's on, and as I mentioned in the article, he has a young line built around him, he's in a weak division, and he plays at least 9 games a year indoors. Not a Thomas believer, agree that it will take a while IF he hits. He's just not fluid or explosive. Big, strong, fast in a straight line, hard to out-bang in the air, yes, but the NFL has fallen in love with these size/speed guys who aren't natural receivers (Thomas lacks consistent hands and proven route running ability) and I think there's at least a 50/50 shot that Thomas's game won't translate nearly as well as people expect it to. I also wasnt impressed with the "im a better person than Dez" stuff, but thats for another thread.Dwyer fell because of the drug test, worries about the system, out of shape... probably something that made teams uneasy in interviews, too. I still think the talent for carrying the ball is real, not an illusion, but RBs are so undervalued in the NFL draft if they aren't burners, so teams probably just didnt have him as a high priority. keep in mind that teams are still taking 2nd/3rd rounders on their board in the 6th round, so just because Dwyer fell to the 6th doesnt mean that all teams had him with a 6th round grade.
Mr.Underhill
Footballguy
Love the article. And I'm a still high(er) on Dwyer than NFL teams seemed to be.But when a guy gets drafted in the 6th, doesn't that mean that pundits' grading of him as a 2/3 rounder was simply off?
You don't fall 4 rounds below your grade because NFL teams have you that high but thought they could get you in the 6th or 7th. Those teams that were passing on him in rounds 3 through 5 were obviously taking guys ahead of him who graded out lower than he. That tells me the grading system is off.
It smacks a little of an "expert" giving you an appraisal value on an antique that you'll never be able to get if you actually put the antique out on the market. At some point we have to admit that the appraisal is what's off, not the market.
If the market in general "undervalues" RB's who aren't burners, then it would seem to me that they aren't being undervalued at all and that the draft grade should reflect that depressive influence. In effect, the pundits are ignoring the market and "overvalueing" these RB's.
DenverBroncos
Footballguy
People have to be shocked to see Ben Tate so low. I imagine he goes at 1.5-1.7 in all PPR dynasty rookie drafts.
I also expect him to go that high, I just can't in good conscience recommend him over backs that I consider to be much more natural runners and strong physical talents in their own right. I wouldn't actually draft Dwyer or Gerhart before Tate, instead I would try to trade down to someone who really covets Tate and recoup some later picks/players where you can still take one of the other backs and get more for your trouble.
It just feels to me like RBs either get teams hot and bothered and they feel the need to make moves to get them (Mathews, Best, Gerhart for example) or they just feel like they can take or leave them. Its almost like chutes and ladders where an RB who doesnt go by pick 75 is likely to stay out there a while longer (QBs and the top 5 is like this too) - Rashad Jennings and Bernard Scott are great examples from last year. I dont know if Im articulating this well, but I feel confident that RB is just not a position of priority in the draft unless a team falls in love with one, and Dwyer's many warts made that difficult, but it doesn't change his ceiling as an NFL player. What we have learned is NFL teams estimation is low of his chances of hitting that ceiling. Who knows, maybe the fall is exactly what he needs to get motivated and it can be a blessing in disguise. I will definitely be hitting up his owners with trade offers next offseason as long as he's still on the roster.
healthpellets
Footballguy
are they really undervalued, or are they properly valued, but overvalued in fantasy football?
PewterFan
Footballguy
Awesome list Bloom! 
Do you have any concerns over Aaron Hernendez and his possible drug addiction?
He reportedly failed multiple drugs tests while at Florida. He recently said he only failed one, but after reading this Boston Globe story, I have my doubts.
From a talent perspective I can't argue that he should be #10 on your list. I just wonder if he's too risky to be picked in the 1st round of rookie drafts.
Do you have any concerns over Aaron Hernendez and his possible drug addiction?
He reportedly failed multiple drugs tests while at Florida. He recently said he only failed one, but after reading this Boston Globe story, I have my doubts.
From a talent perspective I can't argue that he should be #10 on your list. I just wonder if he's too risky to be picked in the 1st round of rookie drafts.
EBF
Footballguy
Nice work. I think you're selling Mathews a little short. Sure, he isn't the most elusive back in the league and on talent alone he might not be up there with Gore/DWill/Jackson, but as the unquestioned bell cow in an explosive offense it will be pretty easy for him to threaten top 10 production immediately if he stays healthy and lives up to his billing. I don't see him being the best player from this class in the long run, but I see him as the safest bet to maintain elite trade value for the next 12 months.
I still think Thomas > Benn. If either of these two warrants a comparison to Marshall, I would say it's Demaryius.
I'm also on the Best > Spiller train now. I think Jahvid is a superior version of the same type of back. I think he's more elusive and more dangerous in the passing game. I also like his supporting cast more.
I like the Hernandez > Gronkowski call. For all the love that Gronkowski is getting as a first round value at 42, I'm just not that impressed with the clips I've seen. Add in his durability issues and I think he might be a bust. I wouldn't take Hernandez as high as you rank him (maybe 10-15 spots lower), but he's definitely shaping up to be a nice value.
I still think you're a bit too high on Shipley, who has "slot" written all over him. I have to take Decker/LaFell/Gilyard/MWilliams/DWilliams higher than him based solely on their potential to become productive #2 receivers for their teams.
I think BTate and Hardesty have to go higher based solely on opportunity, but I don't have much faith in either of them and I agree with your overall take. There are 4-5 guys with this kind of talent entering the league every season, so I think they'll both have a very hard time being anything more than stopgap solutions. Still, the potential for an A-Train/Forte type of rookie year gives them some value.
I'm pretty intrigued by Freddie Barnes and I wonder if he might end up being one of the out-of-nowhere surprises from this class after falling completely out of the draft. No doubt his pitiful stopwatch speed and workout numbers scared teams from spending a draft pick on him. He has an uphill battle to even make an NFL roster, but the production is impressive and I can't help but feel like he might be a player. I think he's a nice bargain bin acquisition right now. It helps that he's on the Bears, who have lots of C+ level talent at the WR position. Maybe he makes some noise there. Maybe he gets cut in camp. Worth a waiver pickup either way.
I still think Thomas > Benn. If either of these two warrants a comparison to Marshall, I would say it's Demaryius.
I'm also on the Best > Spiller train now. I think Jahvid is a superior version of the same type of back. I think he's more elusive and more dangerous in the passing game. I also like his supporting cast more.
I like the Hernandez > Gronkowski call. For all the love that Gronkowski is getting as a first round value at 42, I'm just not that impressed with the clips I've seen. Add in his durability issues and I think he might be a bust. I wouldn't take Hernandez as high as you rank him (maybe 10-15 spots lower), but he's definitely shaping up to be a nice value.
I still think you're a bit too high on Shipley, who has "slot" written all over him. I have to take Decker/LaFell/Gilyard/MWilliams/DWilliams higher than him based solely on their potential to become productive #2 receivers for their teams.
I think BTate and Hardesty have to go higher based solely on opportunity, but I don't have much faith in either of them and I agree with your overall take. There are 4-5 guys with this kind of talent entering the league every season, so I think they'll both have a very hard time being anything more than stopgap solutions. Still, the potential for an A-Train/Forte type of rookie year gives them some value.
I'm pretty intrigued by Freddie Barnes and I wonder if he might end up being one of the out-of-nowhere surprises from this class after falling completely out of the draft. No doubt his pitiful stopwatch speed and workout numbers scared teams from spending a draft pick on him. He has an uphill battle to even make an NFL roster, but the production is impressive and I can't help but feel like he might be a player. I think he's a nice bargain bin acquisition right now. It helps that he's on the Bears, who have lots of C+ level talent at the WR position. Maybe he makes some noise there. Maybe he gets cut in camp. Worth a waiver pickup either way.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Post draft 99. Denver has already released Chris Brown.
FUBAR
Footballguy
clearly overvalued in FF.It's great to have a strong running game but it seems to me that RB is one of the least valuable positions.
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Donnybrook
Footballguy
I can't believe how over-rated Aaron Hernandez is in non-PPR. He is a 4th round TE on a team where 1st round TEs were nothing but a blip on the fantasy radar. Besides that this draft is deep with rookie TEs with equal or better oppertunites to play. Jason Wood and Norton ranking seems to be more in line with his real value. Is anybody actually drafting him in the second round in non-PPR?
jacobo_moses
Footballguy
Great stuff Bloom. Thanks. I agree with most of your analysis. I think Golden Tate should be just a hair higher because of lack of competition and the kid will translate the NFL well I think.
I also agree with your estimation of Dwyer. He is only 20, and is still learning. I don't think he has hit his ceiling yet. And its not like the Chiefs, or the Cowboys or some team like that who has a crowded backfield drafted him. The Steelers did. And I think Dwyer has enough talent to be the no 2 on Pitt or at least get 8-10 touches in the latter part of the season.
I also agree with your estimation of Dwyer. He is only 20, and is still learning. I don't think he has hit his ceiling yet. And its not like the Chiefs, or the Cowboys or some team like that who has a crowded backfield drafted him. The Steelers did. And I think Dwyer has enough talent to be the no 2 on Pitt or at least get 8-10 touches in the latter part of the season.
deadstick
Footballguy
First off, I agree with you. Here's some useful info for you:I keep track of ADP for Zealots (like others do as well), while I don't share the information (I believe another FBG does after his Zealots drafts are over), Hernandez is sitting at around 3.06 for ADP in Zealots leagues. Gronkowski is sitting at 3.05 for an ADP - they are the 2nd and 3rd TEs off the board, on avg, in Zealots, after Gresham. Hernandez has gone as high as 2.05 and as low as 3.10 in the drafts that are that far through in Z-land.
Saints-Man
Footballguy
Good info, Bloom. Thanks! 
Mr. Bojangles
Footballguy
That is what I thought. How does Earl Thomas not make a top 100 list?
jacobo_moses
Footballguy
I found this little info from another football fantasy dynasty site a month before the NFL draft. Thought it was interesting.
Overall, Dwyer is a great running back who will be a star in the league. The combination of durability and reliability makes him arguably the best running back coming out of the draft this year. Where there are many questions marks with Jahvid Best and C.J. Spiller, Dwyer seems to be the most NFL ready out of the three. He would be a great fit in a two back system with a quick running back to complement his power running style.
Overall, Dwyer is a great running back who will be a star in the league. The combination of durability and reliability makes him arguably the best running back coming out of the draft this year. Where there are many questions marks with Jahvid Best and C.J. Spiller, Dwyer seems to be the most NFL ready out of the three. He would be a great fit in a two back system with a quick running back to complement his power running style.
Thomas is a centerfielder with little zest for run support. I don't like spending rookie picks on S or CB because they are always so plentiful on the waiver wire, and unlike the offensive skill positions and LB, only a small percentage of the top fantasy options were highly drafted players. The consensus #1 safety right now, Bernard Pollard, was cut last year. It just doesn't pay to use rookie picks on safeties unless they are truly elite in that once-every-five-years kind of way (Berry) or have an in-the-box profile.That is what I thought. How does Earl Thomas not make a top 100 list?
Update article with detail coming this week, already some movement in my rankings as Ive had some time to reflect since the initial post-draft version - here's a few of the players that will be highlighted:
MOVING UP
Dexter McCluster, WR, KC
Mike Williams, WR, TB
Jimmy Graham, TE, NO
James Starks, RB, GB
Fendi Onobun, TE, STL
Mike Kafka, QB, PHI
Tony Moeaki, TE, KC
Jeremy Williams, WR, SD
Antonio Brown, WR, PIT
Anthony Dixon, RB, SF
Pat Angerer, LB, IND
MOVING DOWN
Colt McCoy, QB, CLE
Brandon LaFell, WR, CAR
Joe Webb, WR, MIN
Chris Brown, RB, DEN
Dekoda Watson, LB, TB
MOVING UP
Dexter McCluster, WR, KC
Mike Williams, WR, TB
Jimmy Graham, TE, NO
James Starks, RB, GB
Fendi Onobun, TE, STL
Mike Kafka, QB, PHI
Tony Moeaki, TE, KC
Jeremy Williams, WR, SD
Antonio Brown, WR, PIT
Anthony Dixon, RB, SF
Pat Angerer, LB, IND
MOVING DOWN
Colt McCoy, QB, CLE
Brandon LaFell, WR, CAR
Joe Webb, WR, MIN
Chris Brown, RB, DEN
Dekoda Watson, LB, TB
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MAC_32
Footballguy
What about LaFell is causing him to fall? I'm curious what you're hearing because I'm entering the portion of a dyno draft in which Gettis interests me. I don't think LaFell is anything special and am wondering if you've gotten any word from Carolina camp indicating the same.What about Antonio Brown is causing you to move him up? is it Pittsburgh camp based? or Limas Sweed injury based? I'm real curious to hear if it's the former, I want to like him more than I do.
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
Onobun is a STL TE.
thanks, brain had already moved on to Kafka when I was still typing Onobun
Just not seeing him emerge as more than a very modest producer in that offense with the emphasis on the run, presence of Edwards developing along side him (and Gettis too for that matter), and their three-headed TE also playing a quasi-WR2 role.I honestly just plain overlooked Brown in the earlier versions. He's got underrated speed and run after catch instincts and he'll fit in nice in Pittsburgh if he doesn't get stolen off the practice squad. I won't be surprised if he beats out Arnaz Battle for a roster spot.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I don't care for the list. I think a lot of players got kept high or low due to their pre-draft grades (Hernandez, Dwyer, Tate) while others floated due to where they went in the draft (McCoy, Lafell, Sanders). There has to be some give and take to respect that teams do their do diligence on players and there is a reason why Dwyer and Hernandez slid and why Hardesty and Tate went higher. Yes, I understand teams get it wrong every year but I just see a violent sway in the different opinions on players that contradict each other. I guess I can't elaborate properly why I feel this way but it is the general feeling I get from the list. Also, I don't understand why every year there is a player Bloom picks and others jump on (Cedric Peerman, Lorenzo Booker). I am looking at McCluster and Hernandez and going: I don't see it. McCluster doesn't have a true position and what you are suggesting is that he will eat into TJ AND Charles time in the backfield. Where are these potential 80 catches and 12-15 touches a game coming from? He will be a fantastic return man who will struggle to get any actual touches in an offense. Hernandez will have trouble reaching the field this year let alone reaching the once again suggested potential 80 grab kind of season. Gronowski was brought in earlier for a reason and Alge Crumpler is a disciplined vet who can fill the blocking role. I also fail to see how Brady is the perfect QB for him as he has never, ever locked on to his TE's and is classically a spread it around guy who has been blessed to have Welker and Moss the past few years. These guys are going high 2nd and I can't help but think it is a direct correlation to this site.
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On pre-draft grades - if I don't believe in them, why would I even put them out? I do let destinations and draft slides/rises affect my rankings, but they are still based on my evaluations of players - otherwise why publish them at all?Hernandez fell because of dope-smoking concerns and the fact that he's basically a big slot receiver - Brady is perfect for him because Brady's favorite receiver is whatever guy is open, and Hernandez is a natural in that category, plus he'll draw tons of mismatches. He might fizzle out, but if Hernandez hits, he'll hit as a big-time passcatcher from the TE position.Dwyer I struggled with but I just can't push him down any further when I go back and watch the film.Tate I have been pretty clear about, he's just not a creative or sudden or inspired runner.I like Sanders more every time I watch him, plus the destination is great with Ward getting up there in years and Holmes gone.LaFell I discussed above.McCoy I wish I would have kept in the 40s like I had him pre-draft. Browns will draft a QB in the first next year, and they didn't even plan on taking him in the third until Atlanta took Corey Peters two spots ahead of them.McCluster I think will become the new Welker for Cassel. Cassel loves the checkdowns and Welker's numbers didnt drop when he was in. Best quicks in the draft and KC didn't take him top 40 to use him strictly as a returner/novelty player.
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D'OHtis
Footballguy
I agree with Dwyer & Tate 100%. I'm still stunned Dwyer fell to Round 6. His medical condition must be worse than is let on & fell it'll really hamper his ability as he gets older.McCluster: I just don't see that type of receiving weapon -- comparing to Welker -- when I watch McCluster. I think KC just wanted a playmaker. He's a gadget player that'll be productive in rush/pass/return game. However, I think that's worth a top 40 pick (if he can make a positive impact at a variety of roles ....it also saves you a game day roster spot to use elsewhere). Lacking playmakers: KC has exactly one in Charles (who did it over half a season). I'll stand in the minority, but I think we've seen the best of Bowe. Struggling with weight/work ethic/substance abuse isn't a great sign in your early 20's. He'll never see that many targets again either IMO
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
It's not that I whole heartedly disagree with you on the lot of players I mentioned... infact I agree with Sanders, Dwyer and McCoy. I just am trying to get a grip of how you adjust to when the draft actually occurs. Some guys stick to their guns no matter what and others adjust to where a person is drafted and what situation they are involved. I guess you kind of fall in between and I guess I don't care for that too much but I'm not trying to make it a slight on you. I have a big disagreement with the placement of Hernandez and McCluster and I know where you are coming from, I just disagree.Edit to add: Hester and Ginn were drafted higher, IIRC, to be return/novelty players.
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Mister CIA
Footballguy
Anything special causing you to move Dixon up, or was #64 just too low to begin with?
MAC_32
Footballguy
I think somewhere in between is the proper decision post draft, much like every other piece of information along the way you have to take the draft into account when making your rankings but treating it as a stand alone or not at all would be silly.I still think LeFevour and Barnes are solid prospects, but not knocking them down my rankings would be silly. I still think Spiller is over rated and almost certainly won't get him anywhere, but keeping him behind guys like Anthony Dixon and Toby would also be silly. Anthony Dixon didn't fall too much in my rankings because I love his situation, even if he was a 6th round pick. Contrast that with Dwyer who I was falling out of favor with, him plummeting to the 6th makes me feel even worse about him because I didn't have strong feelings towards him to begin with,You have to treat every player and situation independently, sticking to your guns regardless of new information isn't the answer but neither is doing a 180 on a guy because you think he's an average player (I agree with Sig re Ben tate) in a good situation. He could be the next Forte/Kevin Smith/Slaton stepping up his rookie season then flaming out in season 2 or he could be like Addai and prosper through mediocrity for several years. He could also be like Kenny Irons or Chris Henry, mediocre talents don't always step up just because the situation is good. I think Sig is too low on Tate, but I had similarly strong negative feelings towards Irons and Henry, so I get where he's coming from.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Fendi is likely two or three years away, but like Hernandez and Graham, he was drafted to be a pass catching weapon, so if he hits, it will register on the fantasy richter scale.
simey
Footballguy
According to one of the Panthers writers who answered questions following minicamp, he said for the most part LaFell looked good. He said he had a few drops, but he improved over the three days, and he expects him to start. Of course that's his opinion, and there is a lot of time left between now and the start of the season.
Fullback Fro
yesno
Where the heck are the 2009 articles on NFLDraftguys. They are all gone. :sad:
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
What Patriot TE has ever been good enough for Brady to lock onto?
massraider
Footballguy
Well, that begs the question: Can we trust the Pats to draft good TEs, because they sure have done it a lot, and none of them have become fantasy superstars. Or even fantasy starters. I think the Pats like having a lot of TEs, but I don't think they'll throw to them a lot.
Glaven
Footballguy
Ben Watson caught 49 balls just 4 years ago.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
He could have done that and more every year if he was better and more consistent. He just wasn't very good.
Verbal Kint
Footballguy
I still thin Ben Tate is too low, just based on the situation he is in.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Oh, how I wish this were true...
well, I disagree with your logic somewhat.here is why:
1) there are some teams that wont draft a player if they have failed a drug test regardless of talent. assuming that a minimum of 10-15% of teams fit into this category, we are looking at 3-5 teams minimum that are out of the market for this guy. Possibly more.
2) assuming that teams with solid running situations or who drafted a RB with a high pick and are committed to that player for whatever reason, this can cut another 15-20 teams from the market for this guy.
this could leave us with a market of 10 teams (give or take) and some of them may have scouts who didnt like what this guy brings to the table or dont like how he interviews. (it happens)
so as a team who feels the market for a player is narrowed down to 5 or 6 teams max, you are more likely to take the chance & let a player slide another round or two while you grab other players/prospects. Once a player has slid 2 or 3 rounds later than expected, then the sentiment feeds on itself as teams start to wonder why everyone is avoiding this guy and start to second guess their own evaluation of his abilities too.
either way, the team that got this guy could potentially be getting a really good player. Its just a case that the risk with a player like this may have scared off a few teams.
loose circuits
Footballguy
No love for Shawnbrey McNeal?
Since Mathews has durability issues, I was thinking he may get his shot earlier than expected as I doubt Sproles can carry the full load...worst case scenario puts him on track for the COP role in San Diego 2011
Since Mathews has durability issues, I was thinking he may get his shot earlier than expected as I doubt Sproles can carry the full load...worst case scenario puts him on track for the COP role in San Diego 2011
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Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
Dexter McCluster, WR, KC - Something about McCluster in the KC offense just clicks for me. His exceptional quicks will get him open consistently and KC will make an effort to get the ball in his hands. The last player we rejected because he was too small was DeSean Jackson. I knocked Percy Harvin down few notches because he didn't have a true position. No it is not outrageous to compare McCluster to these two, just roll the tape.
I already have my seat on the McCluster hype train.
