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Post Draft Risers/Fallers (Non Rookies) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter tone1oc
- Start date
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Has Matt Jones been mentioned? Skins did nothing aside from let Morris walk at RB this offseason.
Yeah, it has been crazy quiet for a former 1st round pick set to be the bell cow for a new offense behind a quality offensive line. As someone else mentioned, he's got to be fresh, having only 210 touches the past 2 years. I know he'll be 29, but he should have 2 years left of quality production so he's a safe redraft pick.
My best guess for the hesitancy for people to get excited about him would be the fact that the team was openly shopping him before the draft. But after doing nothing significant in the draft, it does look like he'll enter the season as the man. He's an underrated blocker and receiver so he could actually do quite well in this system.
I can't think of a single 33 year old RB that's been productive and he certainly didn't look good at 32 last year.
I think the problem with Matt Jones is that people thought Morris looked bad last year, but Jones looked even worse. I'm shocked they are rolling with him in 2016. There's always value in volume, but how many 20 carry 70 yard 0 TD stat lines do you want to see out of your RB2? Thompson will still be soaking up the targets, right?
Shutout
Footballguy
Thomas Jones, Fred Jackson both long in the tooth and productive.
As far as Sproles goes, it is a different coaching staff but his numbers don't have to be ff-impressive to measure the true worth of him sucking the life out of other rbs. His presence has capped Shady and Ryans the past two years. What could have been HUGE games became "nice" ones. I would add Murray to that group but I have no idea on what they were thinking on that.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Jones was pretty terrible at 33 (and at 32 for that matter [3.4 ypc] although he still saw heavy volume that season and compiled stats). Fred Jackson was still very effective at that age - he's been considered a freak in that respect though.
I can't see Sproles having a very big role with a new coaching staff however at 33 and clearly in decline. I wouldn't be terrible surprised if he doesn't even make the team.
Nope and nope. Thomas Jones had a heavy workload at 32, but clearly fell off a cliff that season and was even worse at 33. Fred Jackson was decent at 32, but his cliff came at age 33. So my statement remains "I can't think of a single 33 year old RB that's been productive." And as I mentioned, his age 32 season didn't look so good. We'll probably look back and say that's when he declined. Unless he manages to turn back the clock, Sproles will not be a significant contributor at age 33.
Shutout
Footballguy
Lumping guys into categories based on age isn't my thing. It's like saying because Brett Favre did something at an age, everyone can (or can't). It's not that important to me.
My point is/was (and is only) that Sproles has always been a bit of a different guy and has always had an unusual sapping effect on his teammates, ff-wise. Things happen. Who would ever thing a freaking 31 year old sawed off rb named Danny Woodhead would have the effect he has had after being non-existent previously.
My only thought on it is that I will pay more attention to it and not outright dismiss it more than most.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Saying "No RB has ever been successful at age 33, and therefore it's doubtful Sproles will be..." is not close to the same as saying "since Brett Favre was still slinging it at 42, QBX should be fine in two years..."
In the second instance you'd be saying since one outlier did it, anyone should be able to while in the first instance you'd be casting doubt that Spoles will be an outlier (which should be common sense).
That's fine, but I don't think it is wise to ignore the fact that nobody (not even an exception like Favre) has been productive at age 33 at the RB position. Also, the fact that Sproles appeared to already hit that wall last year should further sway you to downgrade his impact in 2016. I'm not saying there is an absolute 0% chance he's got a noteworthy role next year, but that you should take all the information available to you into account. And if you do, you'd probably realize that Sproles is very, very unlikely to significantly impact Mathews' value next season.
Bruce Hammond
Footballguy
Concerning Ajayi MIA, Mathews PHI, Murray OAK, and Jones WAS... Arian Foster is still out there getting healthy. He is going to put a dent in someone's expected bump in value if/when he is ready to sign. My best guess for now is MIA or PHI.
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I agree he's going to crap on someone's ADP, but I'm pretty skeptical about him making a full recovery to his previous abilities. We've got very limited data on RBs coming back from achilles injuries and he's 30 with a very lengthy injury history. His signing will more likely just create a value situation for drafters of the other RB.
I'm not sure he fits a Reid scheme very well (for Pederson in Philly), but I could definitely see him going to Miami if he can pass their eyeball test. They went after CJA hard, so they obviously either (1) don't see Ajayi as being their guy or (2) just have concerns about that knee.
tone1oc
Footballguy
Yep. I could see oakland too, and its also important to consider guys who will be cut like DMC (likely)
tone1oc
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus said:
Games
Rushing
Rk
Year
Age
Draft
Tm
Lg
G
GS
Att
Yds
Y/A
TD
Y/G
1
John Riggins*
1983
34
1-6
WAS
NFL
15
15
375
1347
3.59
24
89.8
2
John Riggins*
1984
35
1-6
WAS
NFL
14
14
327
1239
3.79
14
88.5
3
John Henry Johnson*
1962
33
2-18
PIT
NFL
14
0
251
1141
4.55
7
81.5
4
John Henry Johnson*
1964
35
2-18
PIT
NFL
14
0
235
1048
4.46
7
74.9
5
Franco Harris*
1983
33
1-13
PIT
NFL
16
16
279
1007
3.61
5
62.9
6
Emmitt Smith*
2002
33
1-17
DAL
NFL
16
16
254
975
3.84
5
60.9
7
Emmitt Smith*
2004
35
1-17
ARI
NFL
15
15
267
937
3.51
9
62.5
8
Marcus Allen*
1995
35
1-10
KAN
NFL
16
15
207
890
4.30
5
55.6
9
Larry Csonka*
1979
33
1-8
MIA
NFL
16
16
220
837
3.80
12
52.3
10
Marcus Allen*
1996
36
1-10
KAN
NFL
16
15
206
830
4.03
9
51.9
11
Warrick Dunn
2008
33
1-12
TAM
NFL
15
6
186
786
4.23
2
52.4
12
Ottis Anderson
1990
33
1-8
NYG
NFL
16
11
225
784
3.48
11
49.0
13
John Henry Johnson*
1963
34
2-18
PIT
NFL
12
0
186
773
4.16
4
64.4
14
Marcus Allen*
1993
33
1-10
KAN
NFL
16
10
206
764
3.71
12
47.8
15
Marcus Allen*
1994
34
1-10
KAN
NFL
13
13
189
709
3.75
7
54.5
16
Tony Dorsett*
1988
34
1-2
DEN
NFL
16
13
181
703
3.88
5
43.9
17
John Riggins*
1985
36
1-6
WAS
NFL
12
11
176
677
3.85
8
56.4
18
Joe Perry*
1961
34
BAL
NFL
13
0
168
675
4.02
3
51.9
19
Ricky Williams
2010
33
1-5
MIA
NFL
16
0
159
673
4.23
2
42.1
20
Antowain Smith
2005
33
1-23
NOR
NFL
16
7
166
659
3.97
3
41.2
Interesting enough, Sproles kind of profiles like a Warrick Dunn or Tony Dorsett
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Good call. Dunn is a good fit since he dropped in ypc at 32 and somehow rebounded at 33. He and Ricky are the only two guys past the year 2000 with >4.0 ypc. I actually thought of Riggins when I made my original comment about 33 year olds but the ypc and date at which it was done kind of disqualified him, IMO.
But I still maintain that it is extremely likely that Sproles days as a regular contributor are behind him.
Shutout
Footballguy
Thanks for digging into the work I was too lazy too.
Overall my point was just simply "Sproles always has been and is a little different and you just can't assume and write him off.
But , admittedly, I just don't care enough about FF these days to pick nits like I used to. So these days, my quick thoughts on things are more things I see as I pass by and really remnants of an old habit that I'm letting fade. I probably WON'T be able to drill down and argue the nuances of things with guys like I use to but the offering is simply "this looks like one that requires deeper thought".
You guys have fun with this.
tone1oc
Footballguy
I remember reading an article a few years back where the studied the RB "age cliff", I'm trying to dig it up but have been unsuccessful. But the takeaway, IIRC was that the RBs who performed well into age 31 season tended to play well much longer than others. It could of been 29 not 31, wish I could find it.
FWIW, I presented that table just for reference, don't know exactly how I feel about Sproles in 2016. But I do think that Sproles was pretty effective last year and has so much versatility, I think it would be a bit foolish to think he want be in a lesser part of a timeshare at least.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
Sproles averaged 3.82 YPC and 7.05 YPR last season - which, for a guy who gets the ball almost exclusively in space, aren't numbers I'd call "effective".
I watched every Eagles game and I can vouch that Sproles looked like he hit a wall last season. No burst, no wiggle, no ability to shake tacklers.
Now, it's possible that his numbers were to some extent the product of the dumpster fire that was Chip Kelly's offense last year, where on many occasions the DEs and LBs seemed to know the play call better than our own quarterbacks. And his value has fallen far enough (RB55 on average in the PDSLs) that he's not bad value even if what you get on the field is just a reprise of last year (in which he finished RB29 in PPR). But if I draft him, it's as a poor man's Vereen - for the safety of a baseline in PPR, not for massive upside potential out of a sudden rejuvenation. If you're looking for upside out of that backfield, aim a little higher and grab Mathews IMO.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Forgive me if he's been mentioned as I haven't read through the entire thread, but Kenny Bell should be someone on the rise in dynasty leagues. Tampa did not sign a WR in free agency, draft a WR, or add a WR to their roster with an UDFA.
This tells me they expect a contribution from Bell very soon.
This tells me they expect a contribution from Bell very soon.
tone1oc
Footballguy
Fair enough, admittedly I didn't watch much Eagles. I'm not a proponent of Sproles or anything like that, was just saying that he should eat into some of the pie.
massraider
Footballguy
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I admitted to not actually reading through the thread! Glad I missed it if it's three pages on Mr. Sproles.
?!? I'm not trying to rag on you, but I take some offense when you imply those disagreeing with you are picking nits when your initial post was pretty much purely picking nits. Someone called it Mathews' backfield and you brought up Sproles as if he's going to steal significant value. No RB gets 100% of the workload (at this point even 70% is considered bell cow) and Sproles has always been just a specialist/role player (25% of RB touches last year with Mathews getting injured and Murray in the dog house). He appeared to significantly decline last year and is now 33 - an age at which only one or two comps in the history of the game have been productive. You picked a poor nit and people called it out... not cool to act like you are the victim of a nit picking attack when you were actually the perpetrator!
To get the point back on track, Mathews sure looks undervalued right now (RB24 on FFcalc) given the current RB stable in Philly: Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles (3RB), Wendell Smallwood, Kenjon Barner (PR), Kevin Monangai
His ADP has risen about one round since the Murray trade (from 6th to 5th), but if people have any faith in Pederson as a HC, Mathews should easily outperform his draft pick if he can stay healthy for even just 12 games next year. I'd handcuff him with Barner, which will be really cheap, unless Smallwood surpasses him in camp. Their OL was middle tier last year, but their weak link was guards and they signed Brandon Brooks and drafted another guard in the 3rd, so I expect the OL to be improved.
I agree... definitely in dynasty leagues, but his 2016 outlook is not very exciting. Last year there were 307 WR targets on Tampa and Mike Evans took 145 in 14 games (his first game back from injury was limited in snaps) and for some unknown reason they are paying Vincent Jackson $10M to stick around this year. I think that could feasibly be Bell's job next year, but I wouldn't expect any significant contribution out of him in 2016 unless Evans or Jackson get hurt.
Hopefully Koetter opens things up a little more this year (more WR targets) and Bell gets a few targets from the slot to give us some feel for what to expect in 2017.
