Post Your Top Ten 2012 NFL Teams (1 Viewer)

[BassNBrew]

Last week's position in paren.

1. Denver (2) - Hottest team in the league.

2. New England (4) - Second hottest team, best point differential.

3. Houston (3) - Just scraping by so they get jumped.

4. San Fran (6) - CKap gives this team an added dimension.

5. NY Giants (8) - Knew most of you were writing them off to early

6. Green Bay (1) - Could be anywhere in the 4-6 range.

7. Baltimore (5) - Not a good road team.

8. Atlanta (7) - Too many close calls for my liking.

9. Chicago (9) - Feasting on bad teams.

10. Pittsburgh (10) Struggling to find a 10th team.

Dropped out: NO - Coin flip with Pitt for 10th.

Knocking on the door

Many were putting Tampa, Seattle, and Minn in their top tem last week. This week told the story. Seattle being the biggest pretender of all. I'm sure we'll get some Indy rankings in the top ten. December will put that to rest.

 

[butcher boy]

1 New England Patriots

2 San Francisco 49ers

3 Houston Texans

4 Denver Broncos

5 Baltimore Ravens

6 Atlanta Falcons

7 New York Giants

8 Chicago Bears

9 Cincinnati Bengals

10 Washington Redskins

Dropped out: Bucs, Packers, Saints,

 

[Bankerguy]

1. San Fran

2. Houston

This was my Superbowl pick at the start of the year...staying with it.

3. New England

4. Atlanta

5. Denver

6-10

Baltimore

NYG

Chicago

Green Bay

Pittsburgh

 

[BassNBrew]

1 New England Patriots2 San Francisco 49ers3 Houston Texans4 Denver Broncos5 Baltimore Ravens6 Atlanta Falcons7 New York Giants8 Chicago Bears9 Cincinnati Bengals10 Washington RedskinsDropped out: Bucs, Packers, Saints,

You seriously think the Bengals and the Redskins beat the Packers on a neutral field?

 

[mr roboto]

San Fran

Houston

New England

Atlanta

Denver

Giants

Packers

Baltimore

Bears

Redskins

 

[doowain]

1 New England Patriots2 San Francisco 49ers3 Houston Texans4 Denver Broncos5 Baltimore Ravens6 Atlanta Falcons7 New York Giants8 Chicago Bears9 Cincinnati Bengals10 Washington RedskinsDropped out: Bucs, Packers, Saints,

You seriously think the Bengals and the Redskins beat the Packers on a neutral field?

Absolutely. The Packers D is a joke.

 

[MAC_32]

1 - San Fran - Kaepernick sealed it, the defense and run game are disgustingly strong because of the talent but the offense is as successful as it is because of Harbaugh

2 - Houston - funny how in a suddenly offensive league arguably the two best teams win with defense and a dominant ground game, these guys get it

3 - Denver - yeah they lost to the two teams ranked below them but I just think they're better right now and will be in 5 weeks too

4 - New England - behind Denver because of their secondary, despite beating them on the field

5 - Atlanta - it'd be best for them to lose a game soon and then really blow a good team out of the water, they're coasting right now and that's not going to cut it come January

6 - Giants - probably should be higher, can't do it because of their record, they'll climb in December if Atlanta keeps coasting

7 - Ravens - the way their defense has played I just don't see it, but like the Giants before last week they earn this spot from historical respect until they show they don't deserve it anymore

8 - Packers - need to get healthy on defense

9 - Chicago - need to keep Cutler upright

10 - Whoever I put in will only last one week, seriously, it's a muddled mess starting here. I'm rolling with the Colts since I think they win this weekend and it's tough denying an 8-4 team even if they have been blown out in 3 of their 5 road games and their only win over a +.500 team was Green Bay. Having said that they'll get blown out now and both Miami and Tampa will pull stunners.

 

[BassNBrew]

1 New England Patriots2 San Francisco 49ers3 Houston Texans4 Denver Broncos5 Baltimore Ravens6 Atlanta Falcons7 New York Giants8 Chicago Bears9 Cincinnati Bengals10 Washington RedskinsDropped out: Bucs, Packers, Saints,

You seriously think the Bengals and the Redskins beat the Packers on a neutral field?

Absolutely. The Packers D is a joke.

Say compared to the Skins?Washington loss to the Panthers. Got blown out by the Pitt. Have a losing record.I guess they're the I want to be a rebel pick this week like Seattle and Tampa were last week.

 

[cheese]

1 New England Patriots2 San Francisco 49ers3 Houston Texans4 Denver Broncos5 Baltimore Ravens6 Atlanta Falcons7 New York Giants8 Chicago Bears9 Cincinnati Bengals10 Washington RedskinsDropped out: Bucs, Packers, Saints,

You seriously think the Bengals and the Redskins beat the Packers on a neutral field?

People will dismiss it because 2 of them were against the Chiefs/Raiders, but the Bengals last 3 weeks have been as hot as anybody out there. It actually started in that direction vs the Broncos, but they didn't pull that one out.Cincy crushed the Giants who just crushed the Pack. It just depends on whether you're trying to rank them just based on today. If they played tomorrow, I would feel confident in the Bengals over the Pack. If they played in a month or last month, the Packers are better.

 

[doowain]

1 New England Patriots2 San Francisco 49ers3 Houston Texans4 Denver Broncos5 Baltimore Ravens6 Atlanta Falcons7 New York Giants8 Chicago Bears9 Cincinnati Bengals10 Washington RedskinsDropped out: Bucs, Packers, Saints,

You seriously think the Bengals and the Redskins beat the Packers on a neutral field?

Absolutely. The Packers D is a joke.

Say compared to the Skins?Washington loss to the Panthers. Got blown out by the Pitt. Have a losing record.I guess they're the I want to be a rebel pick this week like Seattle and Tampa were last week.

Was speaking more to Cincy.

 

[BassNBrew]

1 New England Patriots2 San Francisco 49ers3 Houston Texans4 Denver Broncos5 Baltimore Ravens6 Atlanta Falcons7 New York Giants8 Chicago Bears9 Cincinnati Bengals10 Washington RedskinsDropped out: Bucs, Packers, Saints,

You seriously think the Bengals and the Redskins beat the Packers on a neutral field?

People will dismiss it because 2 of them were against the Chiefs/Raiders, but the Bengals last 3 weeks have been as hot as anybody out there. It actually started in that direction vs the Broncos, but they didn't pull that one out.Cincy crushed the Giants who just crushed the Pack. It just depends on whether you're trying to rank them just based on today. If they played tomorrow, I would feel confident in the Bengals over the Pack. If they played in a month or last month, the Packers are better.

Continuing the theme above, I probably was speaking more to the Skins. Cinny is definately on my cusp. They were the coin flip with Pitt on my list.While the Pack has been inconsistant, they have beaten teams in the top ten. Personally I think they caught the Giants at a bad time. In the NFC I have in order SF, NYG, GB, Atl, Chi. Atlanta and GB are tough to rank against each other.I find it interesting that most people's lists were NFC heavy early in the year and now are swinging to the AFC. I'd love to see Cinny and Chicago play.

 

[butcher boy]

1 New England Patriots2 San Francisco 49ers3 Houston Texans4 Denver Broncos5 Baltimore Ravens6 Atlanta Falcons7 New York Giants8 Chicago Bears9 Cincinnati Bengals10 Washington RedskinsDropped out: Bucs, Packers, Saints,

You seriously think the Bengals and the Redskins beat the Packers on a neutral field?

Right now yes. Over the course of the season if they played each other every week, I'd say GB wins out.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

1 NE 2

2 HOU 3

3 DEN 4

4 SF 7

5 GB 1

6 CHI 10

7 ATL 6

8 BAL 8

9 NYG ur

10 TB 9

dropped NO 5

 

[butcher boy]

I guess they're the I want to be a rebel pick this week like Seattle and Tampa were last week.

In response to this, I actually create power rankings in excel that I post on another forum mainly out of boredom at work. These are basically the top 10 from that. When I do rankings like this, I like to prioritize recent performance. I factor things in like win/loss streak, recent SoS, etc. I think this is valuable because the early weeks of the season are basically ancient history when trying to evaluate how teams are performing right now. A loss to a ####ty team weeks ago is much less an indicator of current "power" than a good win last week.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Last week's position in paren.1. Denver (2) - Hottest team in the league.2. New England (4) - Second hottest team, best point differential.3. Houston (3) - Just scraping by so they get jumped.4. San Fran (6) - CKap gives this team an added dimension.5. NY Giants (8) - Knew most of you were writing them off to early6. Green Bay (1) - Could be anywhere in the 4-6 range.7. Baltimore (5) - Not a good road team.8. Atlanta (7) - Too many close calls for my liking.9. Chicago (9) - Feasting on bad teams.10. Pittsburgh (10) Struggling to find a 10th team. Dropped out: NO - Coin flip with Pitt for 10th. Knocking on the door Many were putting Tampa, Seattle, and Minn in their top tem last week. This week told the story. Seattle being the biggest pretender of all. I'm sure we'll get some Indy rankings in the top ten. December will put that to rest.

Tampa losing 24-23 to a team with 1 loss told what story?

 

[BassNBrew]

Last week's position in paren.1. Denver (2) - Hottest team in the league.2. New England (4) - Second hottest team, best point differential.3. Houston (3) - Just scraping by so they get jumped.4. San Fran (6) - CKap gives this team an added dimension.5. NY Giants (8) - Knew most of you were writing them off to early6. Green Bay (1) - Could be anywhere in the 4-6 range.7. Baltimore (5) - Not a good road team.8. Atlanta (7) - Too many close calls for my liking.9. Chicago (9) - Feasting on bad teams.10. Pittsburgh (10) Struggling to find a 10th team. Dropped out: NO - Coin flip with Pitt for 10th. Knocking on the door Many were putting Tampa, Seattle, and Minn in their top tem last week. This week told the story. Seattle being the biggest pretender of all. I'm sure we'll get some Indy rankings in the top ten. December will put that to rest.

Tampa losing 24-23 to a team with 1 loss told what story?

They can't beat a good team. Here's their resumeOwned CarolinaCrushed KCCrushed MinnyHeld on to beat OaklandWhipped SDLucked out v. CarolinaRecord of these oppoents 20 and 46.Basically have feasted on Carolina and the AFC West.

 

[BassNBrew]

I guess they're the I want to be a rebel pick this week like Seattle and Tampa were last week.

In response to this, I actually create power rankings in excel that I post on another forum mainly out of boredom at work. These are basically the top 10 from that. When I do rankings like this, I like to prioritize recent performance. I factor things in like win/loss streak, recent SoS, etc. I think this is valuable because the early weeks of the season are basically ancient history when trying to evaluate how teams are performing right now. A loss to a ####ty team weeks ago is much less an indicator of current "power" than a good win last week.

Can you explain how you rank SOS relative to w/l streak?

 

[butcher boy]

I guess they're the I want to be a rebel pick this week like Seattle and Tampa were last week.

In response to this, I actually create power rankings in excel that I post on another forum mainly out of boredom at work. These are basically the top 10 from that. When I do rankings like this, I like to prioritize recent performance. I factor things in like win/loss streak, recent SoS, etc. I think this is valuable because the early weeks of the season are basically ancient history when trying to evaluate how teams are performing right now. A loss to a ####ty team weeks ago is much less an indicator of current "power" than a good win last week.

Can you explain how you rank SOS relative to w/l streak?

They're not really related. I basically give teams "power points" for how many games they've won or lost in a row. Win 5 in a row and you get 500 points in my formula. Lose three in a row and its -300. The way I use SOS is I take the winning % of the last 5 opponents of each team and use this to modify total points slightly. I'm always tweaking it though. I do factor in season-spanning stats too. For example, team QB rating, points allowed/scored are all totaled for the season.I then do a simple normalization to get the rankings on a 100%-0% scale. This helps see what the gaps are between spots in the rankings. In my current rankings, this shows just how bad the Chiefs are.It all seems complicated in a "this guy needs to get out more" kind of way, but there really is a lot of downtime at work. So below are my latest rankings for all teams.

Rank	Team            	Change	Power %1	New England Patriots	1	100.00%2	San Francisco 49ers	1	97.17%3	Houston Texans  	-2	97.00%4	Denver Broncos  	1	95.28%5	Baltimore Ravens	-1	94.59%6	Atlanta Falcons 	0	87.77%7	New York Giants 	2	82.66%8	Chicago Bears   	4	81.84%9	Cincinnati Bengals	5	69.04%10	Washington Redskins	5	64.99%11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-3	64.07%12	Green Bay Packers	-5	61.82%13	Seattle Seahawks	-2	58.93%14	New Orleans Saints	-4	58.06%15	Minnesota Vikings	-2	52.60%16	Indianapolis Colts	3	51.96%17	Pittsburgh Steelers	-1	47.73%18	Miami Dolphins  	8	46.70%19	Cleveland Browns	8	46.61%20	St. Louis Rams  	5	46.07%21	Dallas Cowboys  	-4	43.22%22	Carolina Panthers	6	41.93%23	Arizona Cardinals	-3	36.63%24	New York Jets   	-6	35.72%25	Detroit Lions   	-2	35.21%26	San Diego Chargers	-2	33.39%27	Buffalo Bills   	-6	33.16%28	Tennessee Titans	-6	32.37%29	Jacksonville Jaguars	2	29.41%30	Oakland Raiders 	-1	16.94%31	Philadelphia Eagles	-1	13.05%32	Kansas City Chiefs	0	0.00%

 

[BassNBrew]

I guess they're the I want to be a rebel pick this week like Seattle and Tampa were last week.

In response to this, I actually create power rankings in excel that I post on another forum mainly out of boredom at work. These are basically the top 10 from that. When I do rankings like this, I like to prioritize recent performance. I factor things in like win/loss streak, recent SoS, etc. I think this is valuable because the early weeks of the season are basically ancient history when trying to evaluate how teams are performing right now. A loss to a ####ty team weeks ago is much less an indicator of current "power" than a good win last week.

Can you explain how you rank SOS relative to w/l streak?

They're not really related. I basically give teams "power points" for how many games they've won or lost in a row. Win 5 in a row and you get 500 points in my formula. Lose three in a row and its -300. The way I use SOS is I take the winning % of the last 5 opponents of each team and use this to modify total points slightly. I'm always tweaking it though. I do factor in season-spanning stats too. For example, team QB rating, points allowed/scored are all totaled for the season.I then do a simple normalization to get the rankings on a 100%-0% scale. This helps see what the gaps are between spots in the rankings. In my current rankings, this shows just how bad the Chiefs are.It all seems complicated in a "this guy needs to get out more" kind of way, but there really is a lot of downtime at work. So below are my latest rankings for all teams.

Rank	Team            	Change	Power %1	New England Patriots	1	100.00%2	San Francisco 49ers	1	97.17%3	Houston Texans  	-2	97.00%4	Denver Broncos  	1	95.28%5	Baltimore Ravens	-1	94.59%6	Atlanta Falcons 	0	87.77%7	New York Giants 	2	82.66%8	Chicago Bears   	4	81.84%9	Cincinnati Bengals	5	69.04%10	Washington Redskins	5	64.99%11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-3	64.07%12	Green Bay Packers	-5	61.82%13	Seattle Seahawks	-2	58.93%14	New Orleans Saints	-4	58.06%15	Minnesota Vikings	-2	52.60%16	Indianapolis Colts	3	51.96%17	Pittsburgh Steelers	-1	47.73%18	Miami Dolphins  	8	46.70%19	Cleveland Browns	8	46.61%20	St. Louis Rams  	5	46.07%21	Dallas Cowboys  	-4	43.22%22	Carolina Panthers	6	41.93%23	Arizona Cardinals	-3	36.63%24	New York Jets   	-6	35.72%25	Detroit Lions   	-2	35.21%26	San Diego Chargers	-2	33.39%27	Buffalo Bills   	-6	33.16%28	Tennessee Titans	-6	32.37%29	Jacksonville Jaguars	2	29.41%30	Oakland Raiders 	-1	16.94%31	Philadelphia Eagles	-1	13.05%32	Kansas City Chiefs	0	0.00%

I know I didn't phrase my question well. How are sos and w/l streak weighed in your equation? It appears that you give w/l a much greater weight over SOS. Have you looked into a declining balance on sos so you don't totally throw out anything 5 weeks earlier.Something just doesn't look right to me. Detriot played Houston tough and should have won. Not a great team, but not a bottom 8 team behind the likes of the NYJ, Carolina, Arizona, Clev, and Miami. They had a brutal schedule and the 3 loss streak seems to be weighted to high.I like you rankings up top for the most and part at the bottom. That's because the top teams put together winning streaks and the bottom teams losing streaks. Assuming there are five different quality tiers of teams, I think your formula needs some tweaking for tiers 2-4.Regardless, I've enjoyed your contributions.

 

[azgroover]

[*]SF

[*]NE

[*]DEN

[*]CHI

[*]HOU

[*]CIN

[*]TB

[*]NYG

[*]BAL

[*]ATL

 

[cheese]

1. 49ers

2. Texans

3. Patriots

4. Broncos

5. Falcons

6. Bears

7. Ravens

8. Bengals

9. Giants

10.Packers

Not really sure what to do with Pitts. With Ben playing, they're around 6th on this list. Without him, 11th or worse.

 

[butcher boy]

I guess they're the I want to be a rebel pick this week like Seattle and Tampa were last week.

In response to this, I actually create power rankings in excel that I post on another forum mainly out of boredom at work. These are basically the top 10 from that. When I do rankings like this, I like to prioritize recent performance. I factor things in like win/loss streak, recent SoS, etc. I think this is valuable because the early weeks of the season are basically ancient history when trying to evaluate how teams are performing right now. A loss to a ####ty team weeks ago is much less an indicator of current "power" than a good win last week.

Can you explain how you rank SOS relative to w/l streak?

They're not really related. I basically give teams "power points" for how many games they've won or lost in a row. Win 5 in a row and you get 500 points in my formula. Lose three in a row and its -300. The way I use SOS is I take the winning % of the last 5 opponents of each team and use this to modify total points slightly. I'm always tweaking it though. I do factor in season-spanning stats too. For example, team QB rating, points allowed/scored are all totaled for the season.I then do a simple normalization to get the rankings on a 100%-0% scale. This helps see what the gaps are between spots in the rankings. In my current rankings, this shows just how bad the Chiefs are.It all seems complicated in a "this guy needs to get out more" kind of way, but there really is a lot of downtime at work. So below are my latest rankings for all teams.

Rank	Team            	Change	Power %1	New England Patriots	1	100.00%2	San Francisco 49ers	1	97.17%3	Houston Texans  	-2	97.00%4	Denver Broncos  	1	95.28%5	Baltimore Ravens	-1	94.59%6	Atlanta Falcons 	0	87.77%7	New York Giants 	2	82.66%8	Chicago Bears   	4	81.84%9	Cincinnati Bengals	5	69.04%10	Washington Redskins	5	64.99%11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-3	64.07%12	Green Bay Packers	-5	61.82%13	Seattle Seahawks	-2	58.93%14	New Orleans Saints	-4	58.06%15	Minnesota Vikings	-2	52.60%16	Indianapolis Colts	3	51.96%17	Pittsburgh Steelers	-1	47.73%18	Miami Dolphins  	8	46.70%19	Cleveland Browns	8	46.61%20	St. Louis Rams  	5	46.07%21	Dallas Cowboys  	-4	43.22%22	Carolina Panthers	6	41.93%23	Arizona Cardinals	-3	36.63%24	New York Jets   	-6	35.72%25	Detroit Lions   	-2	35.21%26	San Diego Chargers	-2	33.39%27	Buffalo Bills   	-6	33.16%28	Tennessee Titans	-6	32.37%29	Jacksonville Jaguars	2	29.41%30	Oakland Raiders 	-1	16.94%31	Philadelphia Eagles	-1	13.05%32	Kansas City Chiefs	0	0.00%

I know I didn't phrase my question well. How are sos and w/l streak weighed in your equation? It appears that you give w/l a much greater weight over SOS. Have you looked into a declining balance on sos so you don't totally throw out anything 5 weeks earlier.Something just doesn't look right to me. Detriot played Houston tough and should have won. Not a great team, but not a bottom 8 team behind the likes of the NYJ, Carolina, Arizona, Clev, and Miami. They had a brutal schedule and the 3 loss streak seems to be weighted to high.I like you rankings up top for the most and part at the bottom. That's because the top teams put together winning streaks and the bottom teams losing streaks. Assuming there are five different quality tiers of teams, I think your formula needs some tweaking for tiers 2-4.Regardless, I've enjoyed your contributions.

You're right about Detroit being a bit too low. Unfortunately I don't know how to assign a point value to how tough they played a team. I can tell you that according to the numbers, they are ranked as low as they are due to the 3 loss streak, only 4 total wins, -7 turnover ratio, and a lowish team QB rating. I'm thinking about dropping team QB rating from the calculation though.As far as weights, I don't think I'm well versed enough in statistics to come up with this across all teams. It's complicated because some things add points, and some subtract. I can give you an example for my top team though, the Patriots. For them, their 5 game win streak counts for about 33% of their total. For the Lions, their 3 game losing streak isn't as much of a factor. They lose 18% of their total due to it. For SOS, the Lions did have a brutal stretch of games recently and they get 10% of their total added back because of it. This is probably too low.

 

[BassNBrew]

You're right about Detroit being a bit too low. Unfortunately I don't know how to assign a point value to how tough they played a team. I can tell you that according to the numbers, they are ranked as low as they are due to the 3 loss streak, only 4 total wins, -7 turnover ratio, and a lowish team QB rating. I'm thinking about dropping team QB rating from the calculation though.As far as weights, I don't think I'm well versed enough in statistics to come up with this across all teams. It's complicated because some things add points, and some subtract. I can give you an example for my top team though, the Patriots. For them, their 5 game win streak counts for about 33% of their total. For the Lions, their 3 game losing streak isn't as much of a factor. They lose 18% of their total due to it. For SOS, the Lions did have a brutal stretch of games recently and they get 10% of their total added back because of it. This is probably too low.

While you're looking for ways to kill time...why not incorporate margin of victory/loss to the sos. Maybe something along the lines of quality loss and bad win? Detriot going to OT against Houston should give them a bump while Atlanta struggling against teams week after week and still winning would mark them down a bit. I think you can accomplish the later by bumping the SOS.How would you your rankings shake out if you change the streak formula to weights wins and losses like this. win < 4 pt or ot win = .5 winswin 4 - 7 pt = 1 winwin 8 - 14 = 1.5 winswin 14+ = 1.75 winsIf you had this in an excel format, you could weight this along the lines of 100% week prior, 90% two week prior, etc, down to a min of 30%same for the losses.

 

[BassNBrew]

[*]SF

[*]NE

[*]DEN

[*]CHI

[*]HOU

[*]CIN

[*]TB

[*]NYG

[*]BAL

[*]ATL

Please explain the reason behind Tampa/AtlHead to head - Atlanta

W/L - Atlanta

Net pt diff - Atlanta

Common opponents - Tampa 3-3, Atlanta 5-1

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Just looked at the Pats schedule

two nice wins vs denver & Indy at home and thats about it, knocking down a bunch of toddlers. No way in hell they should be ranked #1

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

1 - Houston

2 - Atl

3 - Balt

4 - SF

5 - NYG

6 - NE

7 - Den

8 - Chi

9 - GB - this oline and defense isnt going to beat anyone

10 - Indy

 

[azgroover]

[*]SF

[*]NE

[*]DEN

[*]CHI

[*]HOU

[*]CIN

[*]TB

[*]NYG

[*]BAL

[*]ATL

Please explain the reason behind Tampa/AtlHead to head - Atlanta

W/L - Atlanta

Net pt diff - Atlanta

Common opponents - Tampa 3-3, Atlanta 5-1

I'm looking at scoring trends for the past 8 games. It seems Tampa simply has a slight edge over Atlanta in avg PF over that time (about 6 pts), however ATLs defense has been about a FG better. I keep these stats and others in Excel for my weekly bet cards. Then, just for fun I use the same data to spit out a power ranking. It's been pretty close thus far, but I must admit it doesn't consider things like common opponents, injuries, etc. The good part of doing it this way is I don't get star struck by big names either. "Rodgers is due for a big game" yada yada

 

[butcher boy]

The good thing about doing this in excel is that it's pretty easy to produce random data like below.

Below is SoS through Week 12. So, the winning percentages of the teams played to date. No wonder Atlanta is 10-1.

Team             	SOSJacksonville Jaguars	0.595New York Jets   	0.587Carolina Panthers	0.570Dallas Cowboys  	0.554Cleveland Browns	0.545St. Louis Rams  	0.545Green Bay Packers	0.537Arizona Cardinals	0.537Kansas City Chiefs	0.537Detroit Lions   	0.529Tennessee Titans	0.529Buffalo Bills   	0.512Oakland Raiders 	0.512Washington Redskins	0.504Philadelphia Eagles	0.504Denver Broncos  	0.496Chicago Bears   	0.496San Francisco 49ers	0.488New England Patriots	0.479Seattle Seahawks	0.479New Orleans Saints	0.479Minnesota Vikings	0.479San Diego Chargers	0.479Houston Texans  	0.471New York Giants  	0.471Miami Dolphins  	0.463Indianapolis Colts	0.438Pittsburgh Steelers	0.438Baltimore Ravens	0.430Cincinnati Bengals	0.430Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.430Atlanta Falcons 	0.388

 

[Modog814]

The good thing about doing this in excel is that it's pretty easy to produce random data like below.Below is SoS through Week 12. So, the winning percentages of the teams played to date. No wonder Atlanta is 10-1.

Team             	SOSJacksonville Jaguars	0.595New York Jets   	0.587Carolina Panthers	0.570Dallas Cowboys  	0.554Cleveland Browns	0.545St. Louis Rams  	0.545Green Bay Packers	0.537Arizona Cardinals	0.537Kansas City Chiefs	0.537Detroit Lions   	0.529Tennessee Titans	0.529Buffalo Bills   	0.512Oakland Raiders 	0.512Washington Redskins	0.504Philadelphia Eagles	0.504Denver Broncos  	0.496Chicago Bears   	0.496San Francisco 49ers	0.488New England Patriots	0.479Seattle Seahawks	0.479New Orleans Saints	0.479Minnesota Vikings	0.479San Diego Chargers	0.479Houston Texans  	0.471New York Giants  	0.471Miami Dolphins  	0.463Indianapolis Colts	0.438Pittsburgh Steelers	0.438Baltimore Ravens	0.430Cincinnati Bengals	0.430Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.430Atlanta Falcons 	0.388

Does this include or exclude a win/loss given to an opponent? Not sure if that comes across right, better with an example...When calculating the Giants SOS, do you count Green Bay as a 7-4 team or a 7-3 team? The reason I ask is because almost all the teams with winning records are in the bottom half of these rankings. It would then make sense that Atlanta is at the bottom because their opponents are starting off with a 1-10 record. And it makes sense that KC is toward the top because their opponents are starting with a 10-1 record. I guess what I'm asking is a team like Atlanta or Houston really 10-1 because they've played a far easier schedule or have they played a far easier schedule because they're 10-1.

 

[David Yudkin]

Based on point differential . . .

New England Patriots	8	3	0	163San Francisco 49ers	8	2	1	121Houston Texans	       10	1	0	116Chicago Bears	        8	3	0	102Denver Broncos	        8	3	0	97New York Giants	        7	4	0	79Atlanta Falcons	       10	1	0	78Baltimore Ravens	9	2	0	64Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6	5	0	56Cincinnati Bengals	6	5	0	35Seattle Seahawks	6	5	0	34Green Bay Packers	7	4	0	28Pittsburgh Steelers	6	5	0	21Washington Redskins	5	6	0	10San Diego Chargers	4	7	0	8New Orleans Saints	5	6	0	4Minnesota Vikings	6	5	0	-1Detroit Lions	        4	7	0	-13Miami Dolphins	        5	6	0	-15Dallas Cowboys	        5	6	0	-20Cleveland Browns	3	8	0	-39Indianapolis Colts	7	4	0	-43Arizona Cardinals	4	7	0	-47St. Louis Rams	        4	6	1	-49Carolina Panthers	3	8	0	-51New York Jets	        4	7	0	-69Buffalo Bills	        4	7	0	-76Tennessee Titans	4	7	0	-97Philadelphia Eagles	3	8	0	-98Jacksonville Jaguars	2	9	0	-120Oakland Raiders	        3	8	0	-138Kansas City Chiefs	1	10	0	-140

 

[butcher boy]

The good thing about doing this in excel is that it's pretty easy to produce random data like below.Below is SoS through Week 12. So, the winning percentages of the teams played to date. No wonder Atlanta is 10-1.

Team             	SOSJacksonville Jaguars	0.595New York Jets   	0.587Carolina Panthers	0.570Dallas Cowboys  	0.554Cleveland Browns	0.545St. Louis Rams  	0.545Green Bay Packers	0.537Arizona Cardinals	0.537Kansas City Chiefs	0.537Detroit Lions   	0.529Tennessee Titans	0.529Buffalo Bills   	0.512Oakland Raiders 	0.512Washington Redskins	0.504Philadelphia Eagles	0.504Denver Broncos  	0.496Chicago Bears   	0.496San Francisco 49ers	0.488New England Patriots	0.479Seattle Seahawks	0.479New Orleans Saints	0.479Minnesota Vikings	0.479San Diego Chargers	0.479Houston Texans  	0.471New York Giants  	0.471Miami Dolphins  	0.463Indianapolis Colts	0.438Pittsburgh Steelers	0.438Baltimore Ravens	0.430Cincinnati Bengals	0.430Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.430Atlanta Falcons 	0.388

Does this include or exclude a win/loss given to an opponent? Not sure if that comes across right, better with an example...When calculating the Giants SOS, do you count Green Bay as a 7-4 team or a 7-3 team? The reason I ask is because almost all the teams with winning records are in the bottom half of these rankings. It would then make sense that Atlanta is at the bottom because their opponents are starting off with a 1-10 record. And it makes sense that KC is toward the top because their opponents are starting with a 10-1 record. I guess what I'm asking is a team like Atlanta or Houston really 10-1 because they've played a far easier schedule or have they played a far easier schedule because they're 10-1.

Good point. In your example, it would count Green Bay as 7-4. I just use a formula that takes total wins and losses and calculates from there. Nothing too complicated.

 

[Modog814]

The good thing about doing this in excel is that it's pretty easy to produce random data like below.Below is SoS through Week 12. So, the winning percentages of the teams played to date. No wonder Atlanta is 10-1.

Team             	SOSJacksonville Jaguars	0.595New York Jets   	0.587Carolina Panthers	0.570Dallas Cowboys  	0.554Cleveland Browns	0.545St. Louis Rams  	0.545Green Bay Packers	0.537Arizona Cardinals	0.537Kansas City Chiefs	0.537Detroit Lions   	0.529Tennessee Titans	0.529Buffalo Bills   	0.512Oakland Raiders 	0.512Washington Redskins	0.504Philadelphia Eagles	0.504Denver Broncos  	0.496Chicago Bears   	0.496San Francisco 49ers	0.488New England Patriots	0.479Seattle Seahawks	0.479New Orleans Saints	0.479Minnesota Vikings	0.479San Diego Chargers	0.479Houston Texans  	0.471New York Giants  	0.471Miami Dolphins  	0.463Indianapolis Colts	0.438Pittsburgh Steelers	0.438Baltimore Ravens	0.430Cincinnati Bengals	0.430Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.430Atlanta Falcons 	0.388

Does this include or exclude a win/loss given to an opponent? Not sure if that comes across right, better with an example...When calculating the Giants SOS, do you count Green Bay as a 7-4 team or a 7-3 team? The reason I ask is because almost all the teams with winning records are in the bottom half of these rankings. It would then make sense that Atlanta is at the bottom because their opponents are starting off with a 1-10 record. And it makes sense that KC is toward the top because their opponents are starting with a 10-1 record. I guess what I'm asking is a team like Atlanta or Houston really 10-1 because they've played a far easier schedule or have they played a far easier schedule because they're 10-1.

Good point. In your example, it would count Green Bay as 7-4. I just use a formula that takes total wins and losses and calculates from there. Nothing too complicated.

Gotcha, I think if you just subtract out a teams record from their SOS you'll arrive a the SoS I'm referring to, which I think would be a more accurate reflection of the schedule (for example Houston would have had a tougher schedule than Kansas City)....Houston would go from 57-64 to 56 and 54 or .471 to .509. KC would go from 65-56 to 55-55 or .537 to .500

 

[Donnybrook]

1. Giants

2. Patriots

3. 49ers

4. Packers

5. Texans

6. Broncos

7. Falcons

8. Bears

9. Redskins

10. Seahawks

I just don't believe in knocking the Packers out of the top 5 just because they lost badly to the Giants. People were knocking the Giants out of the top 10 because they lost badly to the Bengals. When the Packers get back to health, they will continue being the most dangerous team in the NFL. Broncos are good team but I think they can be forced into being one dimensional with the lose of McGahee.

If I totally believed in Kapernick, the 49ers would be my #1 team. I don't know how Kapernick deals with adversity. He has had little in his two starts.

 

[asuterlowe]

1. 49ers2. Texans3. Patriots4. Broncos5. Falcons6. Bears7. Ravens8. Bengals9. Giants10.PackersNot really sure what to do with Pitts. With Ben playing, they're around 6th on this list. Without him, 11th or worse.

you mean the Ben led team that lost to Oak and Ten?

 

[butcher boy]

The good thing about doing this in excel is that it's pretty easy to produce random data like below.Below is SoS through Week 12. So, the winning percentages of the teams played to date. No wonder Atlanta is 10-1.

Team             	SOSJacksonville Jaguars	0.595New York Jets   	0.587Carolina Panthers	0.570Dallas Cowboys  	0.554Cleveland Browns	0.545St. Louis Rams  	0.545Green Bay Packers	0.537Arizona Cardinals	0.537Kansas City Chiefs	0.537Detroit Lions   	0.529Tennessee Titans	0.529Buffalo Bills   	0.512Oakland Raiders 	0.512Washington Redskins	0.504Philadelphia Eagles	0.504Denver Broncos  	0.496Chicago Bears   	0.496San Francisco 49ers	0.488New England Patriots	0.479Seattle Seahawks	0.479New Orleans Saints	0.479Minnesota Vikings	0.479San Diego Chargers	0.479Houston Texans  	0.471New York Giants  	0.471Miami Dolphins  	0.463Indianapolis Colts	0.438Pittsburgh Steelers	0.438Baltimore Ravens	0.430Cincinnati Bengals	0.430Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.430Atlanta Falcons 	0.388

Does this include or exclude a win/loss given to an opponent? Not sure if that comes across right, better with an example...When calculating the Giants SOS, do you count Green Bay as a 7-4 team or a 7-3 team? The reason I ask is because almost all the teams with winning records are in the bottom half of these rankings. It would then make sense that Atlanta is at the bottom because their opponents are starting off with a 1-10 record. And it makes sense that KC is toward the top because their opponents are starting with a 10-1 record. I guess what I'm asking is a team like Atlanta or Houston really 10-1 because they've played a far easier schedule or have they played a far easier schedule because they're 10-1.

Good point. In your example, it would count Green Bay as 7-4. I just use a formula that takes total wins and losses and calculates from there. Nothing too complicated.

Gotcha, I think if you just subtract out a teams record from their SOS you'll arrive a the SoS I'm referring to, which I think would be a more accurate reflection of the schedule (for example Houston would have had a tougher schedule than Kansas City)....Houston would go from 57-64 to 56 and 54 or .471 to .509. KC would go from 65-56 to 55-55 or .537 to .500

Here's SoS take 2. I think it's correct now.

Team            	SOSNew York Jets   	0.582Jacksonville Jaguars	0.573Green Bay Packers	0.555Dallas Cowboys  	0.555Carolina Panthers	0.555St. Louis Rams  	0.541Cleveland Browns	0.527Arizona Cardinals	0.527Denver Broncos  	0.518Chicago Bears   	0.518Detroit Lions   	0.518Tennessee Titans	0.518San Francisco 49ers	0.514Houston Texans  	0.509New England Patriots	0.500Washington Redskins	0.500Buffalo Bills   	0.500Kansas City Chiefs	0.500Oakland Raiders 	0.491New York Giants 	0.482Seattle Seahawks	0.482Minnesota Vikings	0.482Philadelphia Eagles	0.482New Orleans Saints	0.473San Diego Chargers	0.464Baltimore Ravens	0.455Miami Dolphins  	0.455Indianapolis Colts	0.445Pittsburgh Steelers	0.436Cincinnati Bengals	0.427Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.427Atlanta Falcons  	0.418

 

[doowain]

1 - Houston2 - Atl3 - Balt4 - SF5 - NYG6 - NE7 - Den8 - Chi9 - GB - this oline and defense isnt going to beat anyone10 - Indy

1. Baltimore is too high. I'd switch them and NE.2. Switch out Indy for Cincy. I don't think there is any chance Indy beats Cincy on a neutral field.

 

[doowain]

1. 49ers2. Texans3. Patriots4. Broncos5. Falcons6. Bears7. Ravens8. Bengals9. Giants10.PackersNot really sure what to do with Pitts. With Ben playing, they're around 6th on this list. Without him, 11th or worse.

Pretty spot on.

 

[Jetdoc]

I'm sticking with how I had them ranked a few weeks ago, with one addition:

Top Five (almost interchangeable):

. Houston

. Atlanta

. San Francisco

. New York Giants

. New England

Then everyone else.

Definitely not sold on Denver...not sure why I would be impressed with wins against nothing but mediocre (at best) teams. Week 15 should prove whether Denver deserves to be with the elite.