Potential QB's to turn Elite (1 Viewer)

[ldizzle]

Does drafting a top qb this year make a difference, when there are so many that could put up great numbers?

Most qbs range from 3-6 years to develop into an Elite QB, meaning more than 4000 yds and around 30 tds, nowadays with the league becoming mores passing freindly that is elite. here are some of the top elite and how long it took them to get there

Aaron Rodgers. 4 years. didnt start out right away and was a back up for most the time.

Peyton Manning. 1 year. elite from the get go.

Tom Brady. He has been top 10 sinces 2002. but didnt start throwing near 4000 til 2007.

Drew Brees. 6 years. decent qb but became elite in NO

Phillip Rivers. 5 years. was back up and started slinging in 2008.

Matt Schaub? 6 years. had one helluva 2009. almost 5000 yds. has been decent

Tony Romo 5 years. mainly back up but impressed in end of 2006 and all of 2007.

Eli Manning? 6 arguable 7 years. 2009 not as many tds as 2010 4000yds both years.

Big Ben. 6 years. had good 2009 stats and 2010 were low because he was out 4 games but still has 3200yds and 17 tds

Michael Vick. i will leave him out of this because he is not like the other "classic qb" type

So my guess is that we will see more 4000+ qbs in the near future with a good amount of tds. most of the qbs listed were backups and unnoticed. some were drafted to be the future franchise qb. Lets look at up and comers to see who might fit the mold of potential elite qbs.

here are my 2 top candidates:

Josh Freeman. 3rd year. Did amazing lasy year 3451yds and 25tds. should improve on his numbers last year with the offense 1 yr older and clicking more plus potential rushing tds. more than likely.

Matt Ryan 4th year, new weapons, drafted as franchise qb pretty good stats last year. more than likely.

Here are some other potential qbs. who do you like out of these to step up as elite and who will fall out of the current elite.

Matt Stafford, 3rd year, can he stay healthy?, has calvin. maybe

Sam Bradford, 2nd year, has potentialy a good offense under josh mcdaniels. probably not

Cutler. 6th year, had one good year, but dont know about martz system and oline contributed to last years lower than expected #'s, unimpressive wr corp. probably not

Kolb. 4th year. new place was backup but now gets to start and throwing to fitz. probably not

Flacco. 4th year. almost getting there but doesnt have all the right pieces. probably not.

There seems to be a lot of potential for a number of elite qbs. So is this the year to wait? why or why not?

 

[-jb-]

If I roll the dice this year, and right now it looks like I will not, I would target Stafford.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

Does drafting a top qb this year make a difference, when there are so many that could put up great numbers?Most qbs range from 3-6 years to develop into an Elite QB, meaning more than 4000 yds and around 30 tds, nowadays with the league becoming mores passing freindly that is elite. here are some of the top elite and how long it took them to get thereAaron Rodgers. 4 years. didnt start out right away and was a back up for most the time.Peyton Manning. 1 year. elite from the get go.Tom Brady. He has been top 10 sinces 2002. but didnt start throwing near 4000 til 2007.Drew Brees. 6 years. decent qb but became elite in NOPhillip Rivers. 5 years. was back up and started slinging in 2008.Matt Schaub? 6 years. had one helluva 2009. almost 5000 yds. has been decentTony Romo 5 years. mainly back up but impressed in end of 2006 and all of 2007.Eli Manning? 6 arguable 7 years. 2009 not as many tds as 2010 4000yds both years.Big Ben. 6 years. had good 2009 stats and 2010 were low because he was out 4 games but still has 3200yds and 17 tdsMichael Vick. i will leave him out of this because he is not like the other "classic qb" typeSo my guess is that we will see more 4000+ qbs in the near future with a good amount of tds. most of the qbs listed were backups and unnoticed. some were drafted to be the future franchise qb. Lets look at up and comers to see who might fit the mold of potential elite qbs.here are my 2 top candidates:Josh Freeman. 3rd year. Did amazing lasy year 3451yds and 25tds. should improve on his numbers last year with the offense 1 yr older and clicking more plus potential rushing tds. more than likely.Matt Ryan 4th year, new weapons, drafted as franchise qb pretty good stats last year. more than likely.Here are some other potential qbs. who do you like out of these to step up as elite and who will fall out of the current elite.Matt Stafford, 3rd year, can he stay healthy?, has calvin. maybeSam Bradford, 2nd year, has potentialy a good offense under josh mcdaniels. probably notCutler. 6th year, had one good year, but dont know about martz system and oline contributed to last years lower than expected #'s, unimpressive wr corp. probably notKolb. 4th year. new place was backup but now gets to start and throwing to fitz. probably notFlacco. 4th year. almost getting there but doesnt have all the right pieces. probably not.There seems to be a lot of potential for a number of elite qbs. So is this the year to wait? why or why not?

I think the sweet spot for QBs this year is nabbing the last of the top 7 (Vick, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Romo, Rivers, Manning, in some order). After that, you're right, someone from the bunch you have listed will probably make a big step forward, but correctly predicting who is difficult. The top 7 IMO are head and shoulders above the rest, and in most leagues you can secure the last of the bunch for a 4th round pick. Relatively low cost for safe, secure, top flight QB1 production.

 

[rizzler]

I was pretty dead-set on going RB-wr-wr from the #1 spot in my 12 man, non-ppr

But I'm fairly certain, if it presents itself, Ill now be going rb-wr-qb(Rivers)

I'm tired of hoping I hit on a qbbc, I want me some stud action. And at 6pts/td, I wont wait til the 4/5 turn to see if romo/shaub is there

 

[Trizzler]

Tomorrow night, I'll be drafting in my first ever 14 team league. Simply because of the number of teams, I think it will be critical to grab a QB at the 2/3 turn (I'm drafting from the 3rd position) and not have to worry about missing out on an elite QB.

I know, I know...you're not supposed to draft QBs early. But last year, I made the championship game in the two leagues where I rode my hopes on stud QBs (Vick and Brees). I don't know about you guys, but their production was invaluable for me...another stud RB probably wouldn't have helped. This year, it's critical to get one of those top seven QBs.

 

[abe froman]

I was pretty dead-set on going RB-wr-wr from the #1 spot in my 12 man, non-pprBut I'm fairly certain, if it presents itself, Ill now be going rb-wr-qb(Rivers)I'm tired of hoping I hit on a qbbc, I want me some stud action. And at 6pts/td, I wont wait til the 4/5 turn to see if romo/shaub is there

I can almost guarantee Romo will not be there. Maybe Schaub but with 6pts for TD Romo is going in 4th most drafts. I like idea of waiting this year though. If you are lucky enough to grab Romo between pick 42-54 then Id do it, otherwise liking Ryan later and loading up on RB/WR early

 

[baconisgood]

I think you are being to broad with your term "elite". If Eli gets you 4,000 and 30 he is clearly a tier below what Brees has been averaging for the past 3 years. Same with Peyton and Brady for the past 2 years and that is also WAY below their ceiling. The way the NFL is going 4,000 and 30 might be 8-10 QBs a year or more (especially with adjusting for rushing yards) as "elite" but there would still be a huge gap between #1 and #10.

 

[Sweetness_34]

Every year people look for value at QB and QBBC. The reality is though that every year those same people complain about how they got burnt picking the wrong QB to start (from their QBBC) or that the potential never materialized. If you take a stud QB, you can start him every week and not have to worry about the position. I would much rather roll the dice on a bunch of WRs and RBs and there is a much higher likelihood of you winning a championship that way. Take last year for eg: You could have taken a Peyton Manning or Brady or Rivers or Brees or Rodgers and then got any of these break out/Waiver wire/mid to late round picks that all would have won you the league => Peyton Hillis; Arian Foster; Stevie Johnson; Manningham; Austin Collie; Danny Amendola (in a PPR)

My point is it is much easier to win when you take one stud QB and then pick WRs and RBs in large #s instead of wasting multiple picks on QBs and trying to win with mediocre RBs that you draft in the 3rd and 4th rounds (like Bradshaw; DeAngelo W; Jon Stewart; Ced Benson etc etc). So many people thought they could win with Mcnabb or Stafford or Freeman or Hasselbeck or Alex SMith or Henne or Sanchez etc etc as a QB with potential waiting to break out or rebound.

The only exception to this was Mike Vick last year but that is not going to happen for a loooong time.

 

[Stealthycat]

nobody has mentioned Cassel ........... additional weapon in Breaston, has Bowe, pass catching RB's ..........

 

[Sweetness_34]

I think you are being to broad with your term "elite". If Eli gets you 4,000 and 30 he is clearly a tier below what Brees has been averaging for the past 3 years. Same with Peyton and Brady for the past 2 years and that is also WAY below their ceiling. The way the NFL is going 4,000 and 30 might be 8-10 QBs a year or more (especially with adjusting for rushing yards) as "elite" but there would still be a huge gap between #1 and #10.

The other mistake people make is they do not look at consistency or ints. Do not look at Eli just as 4000 & 30 TDs. Instead remember he costs you tons of fantasy points with his ints (something you do nto have to worry about with Brady; Manning; Rodgers etc). And the fact that he has tons of clunkers or mediocre games. Week to week consistency (even against tough defenses) is something you cannot get when you do not get stud QBs. People thought Big Ben was a great late value pick last year....how did that turn out when he had 2 TDs from Week 14 to 16 (the FF playoffs - the weeks that win or lose you the championship)

 

[ScottyDog]

Dude, seriously, look at their schedule this year compared to last year, it is much more difficult this year. Charlie Weiss is gone also. I would steer clear of ALL Chiefs this year, especially Cassel.

nobody has mentioned Cassel ........... additional weapon in Breaston, has Bowe, pass catching RB's ..........

 

[Trizzler]

nobody has mentioned Cassel ........... additional weapon in Breaston, has Bowe, pass catching RB's ..........

If Cassel is considered an elite QB, then the UN must have made an announcement about Syria being named a leading nation for human rights.Last year was an abberation of epic proportions, supplemented by a terribly weak schedule and a 6.2ypc average on Mr. Charles' part. There was no problem for Cassel finding Bowe because the weak defenses he faced had no idea how to contain the rushing attack. Despite having the 27 TD passes, he only managed to accumulate 3,116 passing yards. What happened when KC met a real team in the playoffs? They imploded.Sure, Breaston is a great upgrade at WR2 and should help to take away coverage from Bowe. But neither is an elite WR, and Cassel is certainly no Peyton Manning. He'll be lucky to break 20 TDs and 3,000 yards. Oh, especially lucky to make those numbers when you figure that Weis is gone.

 

[baconisgood]

I think you are being to broad with your term "elite". If Eli gets you 4,000 and 30 he is clearly a tier below what Brees has been averaging for the past 3 years. Same with Peyton and Brady for the past 2 years and that is also WAY below their ceiling. The way the NFL is going 4,000 and 30 might be 8-10 QBs a year or more (especially with adjusting for rushing yards) as "elite" but there would still be a huge gap between #1 and #10.

The other mistake people make is they do not look at consistency or ints. Do not look at Eli just as 4000 & 30 TDs. Instead remember he costs you tons of fantasy points with his ints (something you do nto have to worry about with Brady; Manning; Rodgers etc). And the fact that he has tons of clunkers or mediocre games. Week to week consistency (even against tough defenses) is something you cannot get when you do not get stud QBs. People thought Big Ben was a great late value pick last year....how did that turn out when he had 2 TDs from Week 14 to 16 (the FF playoffs - the weeks that win or lose you the championship)

In 2007 Brady had 4800 yards, 50 tds and 2 rush Tds and his week 15 line was140 yards, 1 INT. 7 yards rushing- 0 TDs.ANYONE can have a clunker at any time. Roeth scored 17 and 23 pts in 4pt TD leagues last year in weeks 15 and 16. Did not lose you a championship at all.

 

[ldizzle]

The reason why i posted this was because there is a trend that more QBs will be around the 4000yd and 30+ td range in the near future. NFL teams have been adjusting to the new more pass friendly NFL.

All im suggesting, and maybe I using the wrong term "elite", is that for the past decade there were 2 maybe 3 top qbs and the rest from rank 4-10 were all around the same point range so it didnt make much difference if you got the 4 ranked qb or the 9th/10th ranked qb. last year i believe may be an outlier that sperated the elite from everyone else points wise, because teams are shifting to the passing more type of offense. more and more teams are going to be passing.

so unless you get one of the top 2 maybe 3 qbs i believe the rest of the top 10 will be fairly close fantasy pts wise.

the only person i would really trust to be top 1 or 2 is rodgers.

thoughts?

 

[Max Maximus]

Careful with Freeman. Yes, he had 25 TDs, but 5 TDs came in ONE game, which was after week 13 i think. Most of his games were 1 TD games. I'm not seeing he won't be elite or surprise this year. Sometimes, you have to look at the game logs and see exactly how the QB did game to game.

 

[Max Maximus]

The reason why i posted this was because there is a trend that more QBs will be around the 4000yd and 30+ td range in the near future. NFL teams have been adjusting to the new more pass friendly NFL. All im suggesting, and maybe I using the wrong term "elite", is that for the past decade there were 2 maybe 3 top qbs and the rest from rank 4-10 were all around the same point range so it didnt make much difference if you got the 4 ranked qb or the 9th/10th ranked qb. last year i believe may be an outlier that sperated the elite from everyone else points wise, because teams are shifting to the passing more type of offense. more and more teams are going to be passing.so unless you get one of the top 2 maybe 3 qbs i believe the rest of the top 10 will be fairly close fantasy pts wise.the only person i would really trust to be top 1 or 2 is rodgers.thoughts?

Completely agree with you. I rather wait and get an Eli Manning in rd 6. Did you know that Drew Brees only had 2 more pts/game than Eli Manning (and yes, i understand that 2 pts may win or lose games)

 

[OnTheReg]

The way I look at the QB position is this...I would much rather have a "stud" QB (by that I mean one of those seven guys) rather than playing matchups week to week with a Flacco, Eli, Ryan type. Why? I like having the QB position set. So Brees "only" had two points more a game than Eli, big deal. Week to week, I feel MUCH safer with Brees there then I would with Eli. And that's Brees coming off a season with 20 + INTs. I reserve playing matchups for positions like RB2, or WR3. Save yourself the headache. Can a QBC work? Sure it can. But I think analyzing fantasy defenses in the preseason doesn't get you anywhere, and is a giant waste of time. So instead of playing matchups with your QB before you even draft, take the stud, and use the middle round picks to shore up your depth at RB/WR. There are tons of potential sleepers here. Get Brees for instance early, and now you've got the ability to truly go best available, rather than needing two QBs.