Predict Pujol's Next Contract (1 Viewer)

[Michael Brown]

When have the Yankees not gone after the top FA?

Last season, they were not in on either Crawford or Werth, they were in on Lee2009 - they broke the bank2008 - Everyone sucked, unless you count the 3 players they resigned that were never going anywhere.2007 - They weren't in on Daisuke, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Barry Zito or Barry Bonds in any serious way.Sure, they get involved alot, but they don't get involved all the time.

Lee, Tex and CC were the premier players out of that lot. Yanks made top offer to all three.

Tex, CC, and Manny were the top three in 2009. Without trying to sound like a pompous Yankee fan, they had the money to sign all three but didn't. Granted, they signed two of them, but a lot of that push also had to do with over $50 million coming off the books from the prior season. They weren't in on Beltran either when he went to the Mets despite Beltran's offer to take less to play for the Yanks. Granted, the best player in the game hasn't been a FA for quite some time but they weren't in on A-Rod in 2001 either. So while they are USUALLY in on the top guys, there are precedents for them not being big players for the very top guys.Unless they deal Tex for pitching, there's no way they are in on Pujols.

 

[otello]

Anyone care to make revisions to your predictions?

 

[Oh Yes!]

8 years/ 225mm

texas rangers

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

I don't see how anyone can realistically give him a 10 year deal, especially STL. I see 8 as still somewhat objectively absurd, but given that Pujols is a walking legend, it's probably necessary. Look at what you've wrought, MLB.

8/$245MMBOOK IT

Well, I was close on the money at least.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Agreed - the owners did this to themselves - that said Pujols will take somewhat of a discount to remain in St Louis. Guaranteed.

how do these guarantees work exactly?

 

[otello]

So, who was closest?

 

[Wombat1]

This is nice and all, but it completely hamstrings the club to do anything over the next decade. Not sure this is a good idea. I hope the scouting department is unbelievable. The Yankees can get away with crap like this. St. Louis? No chance.

I'm all for team loyalty and keeping him a Cardinal for life, but he has to give a hometown discount a la Joe Mauer (8 years, 184 million). And keep in mind that Mauer will be turning 28. I'm convinced Pujols is 33.

On 99 out of 100 players, I'd be agreeing with you. Pujols is that exception to me. He's a "once every couple of generations" type talent. In fact, he may go down as the best first baseman of all-time when it is said and done. That's the kind of player you extend payroll for over the next decade.We're talking about a team with a 90 mil payroll. You're telling me they can't sustain ~100 mil for a decade? Have you seen what that franchise does in terms of ticket and merchandising sales? They own like 8 states.

Everyone keeps approaching this like they are paying him pennies right now, but he made roughly 15 mil last season. If they haven't been budgeting on paying him 25 mil+ at the end of this current contract, that's poor foresight on their part.

With a healthy Pujols, Holliday, Wainwright, Carpenter, Rasmus, etc., they have a window still open for 3-5 years that could bring a World Championship or two if things break right. Will they have issues staying competitive in the last 3-4 years of a 10-year pact? Possibly, but contracts like Carpenter and Holliday will be off the books then. It is really hard to say what the payroll situation will look like at that point because it involves way too much speculation, but that's why I think it is important to front-load the contract. If they're paying him 15 mil at age 40, it won't be the end of the world in term of the yearly payroll.

Also, the "hometown discount" was given in his last contract. He has played his prime at well under market value. He will re-sign again with the Cardinals for under market value if they will commit to the years he wants. Doesn't seem too unreasonable to me. He'll get 10/300 on the open market.

The "hometown discount" wasn't given to him in his last deal. He had only played 3 seasons and still had 3 more under the team's control. It was a lot of money at that time for a player who wasn't going to be a free agent for 3 more years.Right now, the Cardinals continually draw in excess of 3 million fans per year. How many more can they pack into the place when he is going for HR records?

Even if they bump up the payroll to over $100 million and they give Pujols $30 million a year, that is still 30% to 1 player. They have only $70 million leftover to pay the other 24.

Here is what I would offer. $250 million over 10 years. After he retires, pay him $5 million a year for however long he wants as an advisor or some position where he comes to spring training and makes several appearances at the park each season.

Well it wasn't necessarily a prediction but still nailed it.

 

[curta269]

This is nice and all, but it completely hamstrings the club to do anything over the next decade. Not sure this is a good idea. I hope the scouting department is unbelievable. The Yankees can get away with crap like this. St. Louis? No chance.

I'm all for team loyalty and keeping him a Cardinal for life, but he has to give a hometown discount a la Joe Mauer (8 years, 184 million). And keep in mind that Mauer will be turning 28. I'm convinced Pujols is 33.

On 99 out of 100 players, I'd be agreeing with you. Pujols is that exception to me. He's a "once every couple of generations" type talent. In fact, he may go down as the best first baseman of all-time when it is said and done. That's the kind of player you extend payroll for over the next decade.We're talking about a team with a 90 mil payroll. You're telling me they can't sustain ~100 mil for a decade? Have you seen what that franchise does in terms of ticket and merchandising sales? They own like 8 states.

Everyone keeps approaching this like they are paying him pennies right now, but he made roughly 15 mil last season. If they haven't been budgeting on paying him 25 mil+ at the end of this current contract, that's poor foresight on their part.

With a healthy Pujols, Holliday, Wainwright, Carpenter, Rasmus, etc., they have a window still open for 3-5 years that could bring a World Championship or two if things break right. Will they have issues staying competitive in the last 3-4 years of a 10-year pact? Possibly, but contracts like Carpenter and Holliday will be off the books then. It is really hard to say what the payroll situation will look like at that point because it involves way too much speculation, but that's why I think it is important to front-load the contract. If they're paying him 15 mil at age 40, it won't be the end of the world in term of the yearly payroll.

Also, the "hometown discount" was given in his last contract. He has played his prime at well under market value. He will re-sign again with the Cardinals for under market value if they will commit to the years he wants. Doesn't seem too unreasonable to me. He'll get 10/300 on the open market.

The "hometown discount" wasn't given to him in his last deal. He had only played 3 seasons and still had 3 more under the team's control. It was a lot of money at that time for a player who wasn't going to be a free agent for 3 more years.Right now, the Cardinals continually draw in excess of 3 million fans per year. How many more can they pack into the place when he is going for HR records?

Even if they bump up the payroll to over $100 million and they give Pujols $30 million a year, that is still 30% to 1 player. They have only $70 million leftover to pay the other 24.

Here is what I would offer. $250 million over 10 years. After he retires, pay him $5 million a year for however long he wants as an advisor or some position where he comes to spring training and makes several appearances at the park each season.

Well it wasn't necessarily a prediction but still nailed it.

I'll take it!! Wish I would have gotten in a pool!