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Preseason Edition of the IDP Roundtable (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Jene Bramel
- Start date
Mistabishi
Footballguy
Perfect timing. I was dying for some fresh perspective. Damn I love IDP fantasy leagues.
Nobody does it better than you guys. I need my IDP fix! 
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Luv it but I do have to point out a thingy or two on your Browns defensive takes.First, just an obvious miscue in that last year Romeo Crennel was not the Browns DC, he was in KC.
Secondly, the Browns are LOADED at LB. The consensus take on the IDP round table was pretty much dismissive of the thought that the Browns have any talent at LB and I beg to differ.
Last year ILB D'Qwell Jackson and his backup ILB Eric Barton landed on IR so the defense had to scramble to find replacements.
The two rookie LBers, Viekune and (Hawaiian name that is too hard to spell so I call him Kaluka 'Fran-and-Ollie) were simply not ready. The Browns defense is essentially the New England/Billechick/Crennell/Mangini defense and it took Teddy Bruschi three years befoer he became a starter so the rookies were spoon fed. Kalukala 'Fran-and-Ollie', from big 10 powerhouse USC, got PT as a coverage LB due to him being undersized but he did ok, for a rookie. Viekune had to make a much bigger leap coming from the WAC, Hawaii, and then had to make TWO positional changes. He went from playing a down-DL to a stand up-LB, and you know how difficult of an adjustment that is, but to complicate matters they also tried to move him inside after the spate of injuries to D'Qwell and Bart so he fell waaaaaaaaaaay behind last year and the fans got down on him. He showed up twenty lbs lighter to camp and stronger (he had 35 reps on the bench at last year's Indy combine-second of the entire 09 class) but he got lost in the shuffle because the team has vets who can play.
Basically the rooks didn't contibute too much last year. The Browns DC (Rob Ryan not Romeo Crennell, or the 'other' son or Buddy Ryan not on Hard Knocks) had to scramble to replace two veteran inside LBs so he scanned the wire and practice squad. The team plucked Jason Trusnic off of the wire and he started 10 games last year. Trusnic got thrust into a starter role before he was up to speed so David Bowens had to make defensive calls so, as you can expect Trusnic was shaky but then he flashed inside pass rush moves and by the end of the season he upped his overall game.
With Trusnic they have a big guy with inside pass rush moves who has over half a season of starting exprience.
Rob Ryans utilized elder veteran David Bowens and moved him around all over the place and Bowens played great. The team was awarded Matt Roth off of waivers and Matt had immediate impact and shored up the strong side which allowed Bowens to move back inside. The team then saw significant improvement from OLB Marcus Bernard so they graduated him up from the practice squad late last year and he flashed major outside pass rush moves that eventually lead to the trading away of OLB Kamerion Whimbley.
This year the team inked Scott Fujita to a free agent contract and traded for Chris Gocong and they had both Bart and D'Qwell back. You know about D'Qwell not getting an extension and his injury but it doesn't matter beacuse the team is LOADED at LB.
As per IDP significance? Very little meat for the IDP crowd other than SSLB Matt Roth. Roth is going to be on the field moreso than any other Browns LB and he gets sacks and he is a steady/sure tackler and is some leagues he's listed as a DLman which means he provides LB points at the DL position which means he would be monster DLman in those leagues.
So I have to disagree with the dismissive take on the overall quality of the Browns LBing corps. Do not confuse IDP projections with NFL talent, the Browns LBs are very good. They aren't and won't ever be uber IDP point providers but the team defense is significantly better over the last year just on sheer numbers alone.
They added: Trusnic, Bowens, Roth, Bernard, Gocong, Fujita, add in Kalukala 'Fran-and-Ollie' along with Viekune, plus getting both Eric Barton and D'Qwell Jackson back (albeit D'Q won't see the field for a about a month) and the LB position is LOADED.
Those Browns LBers fit the team-defense scheme that Mangini and DC Rob Ryan base on versatility and if you think the last four games of the 09 season was a mirage then just check the preseason stats and you'll find that the Browns are ranked 5th in the NFL on defense (second in the AFC) and that is while they are experiencing growing pains mixing in rookies into their secondary.
NFL top rated defenses for the 2010 preseason
1. Carolina Panthers 168 ypg
2. San Diego Chargers 205 ypg
3. Minnesota Vikings 210 ypg
4. San Francisco 49ers 214 ypg
5. 5. Cleveland Browns 256 ypg
6. Dallas Cowboys 263 ypg
7. NY Jets 264 ypg
8. Oakland Raiders 268 ypg
9. KC 280 ypg
10 Pittsburgh Steelers 283 ypg
The ILB position is going to be a mish-mash of, Eric Barton/David Bowens/Jason Trusnic/Kaluka 'Fran-and-Ollie'/Chris Gocong/Scott Fujita, and D'Qwell Jackson once he comes back. I had sounded the alarm on D'Qwell being a gimp-puppy long before his pec muscle tear and I said that Marcus Bernard would split time with Gocong or Fujita on the weak side.
Marcus Bernard is still wet behind the ears so I expect a combination of Fujita/Gocong with Berard weening into a starter role on the weakside.
The guy I've been pimping the entire time is SSLB Matt Roth (he will be moved all over but he'll be used more than anyone). If you want to hang your IDP hat on anyone its Roth and he is listed as a DLman in some leagues so he is without a doubt a major boon in those leagues.
Bottom line, the Browns are LOADED at LB and I disagree with the IDP round table dismissive chatter on the Browns LBers.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
I love Bracie's passion. I realized in mid-rant that I flaked on the Crennel-Ryan issue, tried to save it in the second half of the sentence and didn't. I should've corrected myself right away because you guys are too discerning an audience and our standards are too high to let that stuff slide. I'll do better next time.
And you're right, I'm being too hard on the Browns' depth. The roster is flush with experienced bodies and there's not a lot of other rosters that can say the same. But when I look at this depth chart...
ILB: D'Qwell Jackson, Chris Gocong, Eric Barton, Kaluka Maiava, David Bowens, David Veikune
OLB: Matt Roth, Scott Fujita, Marcus Benard, Jason Trusnik
...I don't see a single impact player. Though this team is "loaded" with game experience and guys that have been in the league for years, there's nothing worth getting excited about. I'm appreciative of the team defense comment, but "loaded depth" suggests to me that the starters and backups would be coveted as potential starters on the open market. The talent doesn't bear that out, nor did the market itself over the past seasons with respect to Barton, Fujita, Roth, Gocong and Bowens. Again, that doesn't mean that the defense can't succeed, it just means that I think the depth is being made a little much of right now.
After four seasons, maybe the light went on for Roth in the last six games last year or maybe he benefited from facing swiss cheese offensive lines in PIT, KC, OAK and JAC and the not-so-special pass blocking unit of CIN.
Jackson is a nice player in pursuit and racks up tackles, but he's had three sacks, one forced fumble and four interceptions in four seasons.
Barton and Fujita are veteran role players on the back side of their careers.
Bowens and Gocong may both prove to be good fits where Ryan has them (SILB), but there's a long way to go before we see consistent every-down impact from either.
Trusnik, Maiava and Veikune are men without a position in this defense (and possibly the league). Call them depth, but if they're in your lineup, your defense has a major hole to exploit.
And I'd be careful drawing much from the preseason yards per game numbers. Though they did well enough against Ryan Grant in the first preseason game, the first team defense has given up yards in bunches and multiple TD drives in the first two preseason games. I'd bet they'd be well down in the bottom half of the league if we compared yardage allowed by first team defenses. The loss of Shaun Rogers and Jackson clearly play a role here, but your argument would be more compelling without the preseason reference.
It'll be fun to see how this plays out. Where I see castoffs and replacement level talent, Bracie sees recent improvement and a coach that will put his players in the best place to succeed. Where Bracie sees a strong finish to 2009, I see the offenses faced as having severe flaws. And I think very little of the preseason performances, both specific to the Browns this month and in general.
Bringing the discussion back to fantasy football, we definitely agree on one thing. Avoid the Browns' ILBs until we learn whether Gocong can be productive in an every-down role. I think someone (and it may not be until Jackson returns) will take advantage of what should again be plenty of opportunity. Consider Matt Roth in deeper, big play heavy scoring systems as a guy with plenty of upside. More and more, though, after watching what Ryan is doing with this defense, I think TJ Ward might be your prime IDP target here.
And you're right, I'm being too hard on the Browns' depth. The roster is flush with experienced bodies and there's not a lot of other rosters that can say the same. But when I look at this depth chart...
ILB: D'Qwell Jackson, Chris Gocong, Eric Barton, Kaluka Maiava, David Bowens, David Veikune
OLB: Matt Roth, Scott Fujita, Marcus Benard, Jason Trusnik
...I don't see a single impact player. Though this team is "loaded" with game experience and guys that have been in the league for years, there's nothing worth getting excited about. I'm appreciative of the team defense comment, but "loaded depth" suggests to me that the starters and backups would be coveted as potential starters on the open market. The talent doesn't bear that out, nor did the market itself over the past seasons with respect to Barton, Fujita, Roth, Gocong and Bowens. Again, that doesn't mean that the defense can't succeed, it just means that I think the depth is being made a little much of right now.
After four seasons, maybe the light went on for Roth in the last six games last year or maybe he benefited from facing swiss cheese offensive lines in PIT, KC, OAK and JAC and the not-so-special pass blocking unit of CIN.
Jackson is a nice player in pursuit and racks up tackles, but he's had three sacks, one forced fumble and four interceptions in four seasons.
Barton and Fujita are veteran role players on the back side of their careers.
Bowens and Gocong may both prove to be good fits where Ryan has them (SILB), but there's a long way to go before we see consistent every-down impact from either.
Trusnik, Maiava and Veikune are men without a position in this defense (and possibly the league). Call them depth, but if they're in your lineup, your defense has a major hole to exploit.
And I'd be careful drawing much from the preseason yards per game numbers. Though they did well enough against Ryan Grant in the first preseason game, the first team defense has given up yards in bunches and multiple TD drives in the first two preseason games. I'd bet they'd be well down in the bottom half of the league if we compared yardage allowed by first team defenses. The loss of Shaun Rogers and Jackson clearly play a role here, but your argument would be more compelling without the preseason reference.
It'll be fun to see how this plays out. Where I see castoffs and replacement level talent, Bracie sees recent improvement and a coach that will put his players in the best place to succeed. Where Bracie sees a strong finish to 2009, I see the offenses faced as having severe flaws. And I think very little of the preseason performances, both specific to the Browns this month and in general.
Bringing the discussion back to fantasy football, we definitely agree on one thing. Avoid the Browns' ILBs until we learn whether Gocong can be productive in an every-down role. I think someone (and it may not be until Jackson returns) will take advantage of what should again be plenty of opportunity. Consider Matt Roth in deeper, big play heavy scoring systems as a guy with plenty of upside. More and more, though, after watching what Ryan is doing with this defense, I think TJ Ward might be your prime IDP target here.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I understand completely where you are coming from. From an IDP talent POV and from a keen defensive talent scouting POV with a second degree in defensive schemes. Very qualified and I do not underestimate your knowledge.I define LOADED from the POV of someone who knows the state of the LBers after both D'Qwell and Barton went down and how that unit changed dramatically. The development of, Trusnic, Roth, and Bernard, along with the significant play and production of Bowens at the tail end of last year was more a product of poor competition or the coaching staff revamping the offense to a power run and clock control offense. It was primarily the gelling of the defense when NT Shuan Rogers went down and Atyba Rubin took over. The timing of the defense solidified at the same point the LBing corps solidified.
I will say with quiet confidence that Matt Roth is going to cause headaches for many teams that he faces this year.Jackson is undersized, lacks pop, and is a gimp puppy but highly active when healthy. He's overvalued in some corners of the IDP crowd.Barton is older, smaller, coming off of a major injury and limited to only playing inside. If D'Qwell hadn't gone down in the preseason I wasn't sure Bart would make final cut. Fujita is, big, experienced, and a quality leader. The coaches want Gocong to win one of the inside LB slots so they are bouncing Scott back and forth ILB/OLB I think they prefer Gocong inside so Fujita could be in no-man's land but I like what he brings.Bowens is 34, he's large and better than what some might think but he's old and they are saving his legs in the preseason. Gocong is the wildcard, I just don't know what he brings to the table.Trusnic is a guy I really did not like when he first showed up but by the end of the year he was a totally different player. He's not starter material but he offers quality depth because he can play both ILB and OLB and he knows the D and he really does show a nice inside pass rush which fits the scheme so he'll see the field in certain packages. Maiava is a cover LB but he saw more action than expected due to injuries last year and he might stick. I'm not as confident about Veikune.
They got torched via the air and were starting two rookies and as you say, you shouldn't use preseaon stats but it is interesting that all of the top four teams and the teams directly in back of the Browns all are viewed as top defensive teams.
I've already pimped T.J., he's the real deal AFIC. The two things about him that I slightly knock him down on are that he only had three INTs in his college career so I'm not seeing a turnover machine in terms of getting interceptions however he will force more than his fare share of fumbles IMHO. The other thing about him is that he loves contact and he's undersized so he may have an injury filled career ala Bob Sanders.I'll see your T.J. Ward and raise you Matt Roth. Also if D'Qwell comes back healthy and no-one has stolen his starting job he will be a mid-season sleeper.No quarrels, just my interpretation of the Browns LBing corps stems from where they were at the lowest point when D'Qwell and Barton went down and the kids weren't even close to starting and neither Roth or Bernard were on the radar and Trusnic was stinking up the joint. Major strides were made before Fujita and Gocong came aboard and I don't think this unit is a mirage. Also I use the term LOADED to indicate that the coaching staff has all of the components to run their scheme. Sure they would love to have a DeMarcus Ware or a T-Suggs coming off the edge and they'd love an enforcer inside ala Ray-Ray or Pat Willis but I think you'll see a nasty unit. The secondary got juiced with two young guys who look like keepers and I like Sheldon Brown but their will be growing pains. The D-line didn't get a shot of new blood but Atyba Rubin is a NT who is going to have a breakout year, but the IDP crowd need not concern themselves with a block gobbling NT who won't put up stats but will play solidly. Shuan Rogers will most likely be moved out to DE where his push and unique style of inconsistent effort won't mess up the overall timing of the LBers who counted on consistent NT play to base their reads off of.I don't base much off of preseason stats but I don't shy away from them when the stats when I know the coaches have experience with a scheme and they have players who can run it well. Bottom IDP line for the Browns defense: S T.J. Ward, OLB Matt Roth, and sleeper once he gets up to speed CB Joe Haden. Yeah keep a lazy eye on Joe. He'll get his shot this year and I'm confident the light will come on and he'll be ready. He is one of those corners who loves contact and he sticks his nose in and attacks the edge so he is a guy with upside. Oh and Bernard is a hustler but I think his time is next year before he should be mentioned but I sense something about him.Cheers
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
One of the things I admire about Cecil and Lammey is that they go out on limbs for some guys and ofcourse they can't be right on every call and sometimes they have to come back and explain their original picks and they provide explanations especially when a guy they are high on doesn't burst out of the gate.
The Browns defense stunk it up last night against the Lions but their was one thing that caught my eye. David Bowens saw his first action of the preseason. I felt the coaches would start to get him into the mix and further cloud the ILB position.
Mangini has come out after each game to address certain things and he has stated after the GB game how rookie CB Joe Haden mistimed his blitz and showed it too early and Aarron Rodgers easily read it, the blitz, and burned rookie S T.J. Ward who had great coverage on his WR but Rodgers placed his toss perfectly.
Great coverage by T.J. but a bad timed blitz by rookie CB Joe Haden.
It was a great explanation by Mangini and it made sense to me.
Last night he addressed the defensive struggles by stating that the timing is just a tad off and that guys are very close with pressure to the QB but that it is a bit off. He explained the fits for some of the run breakdowns were off and that is all it takes but he also said that he expects the timing to firm up and the adjustments to be made to fix the other problems.
So the team defense concept applies much more to a defense like the Browns where each player is dependent on the other guy being in the right spot at the right time. The Browns had 40 sacks last year and so far this preason they haven't gotten any. Their is proven pass rush ability from a few of the LBers and I have to think the inability to get any traps stems from some growing pains from rookies and from trying to settle on starters and the timing/alignment mishaps that would follow.
I acknowlege the struggles and I also acknowledge people who look at the talent and think, feh, nothing there but think that T.J. is legit and he had another solid outing 3 solos and 2 assists. I think Joe Haden is a good long term play and he is improving. Last night he had his best statistical game 2 solos 2 assists and 1 PD where he broke up a pass in the endzone. I have been a Matt Roth pimp, especially if he's listed as DLman and although he didn't blow up he had a steady night as he played the run solidly 1 solo 2 assists in less than three quarters.
I have to think Rob Ryan is keeping some things under wraps and that the pass rush will come when the regular season begins so I'll stick my neck out further and do projections based on what I've seen and how I think these players will be used with the caveat that they remain relatively healthy during the year.
Safety T.J. Ward
60-72 tackles, 2-3 interceptions, 2-4 FF, 1-2 FR, 2-4 sacks, 3-6 PD
CB Joe Haden
30-35 tackles, 4-7 interceptions, 1-2 FF, 1-2 FR, 1- sack, 9-11 PD
LB/DE Matt Roth
62-71 tackles, 0 interceptions, 1-2 FF, 1-2 FR, 6-9 sacks, 1-3 PD
I think the above are reasonable if these players remain healthy. Haden is a rookie and veteran Sheldon Brown will either start or split time with him but I think by the end of the year, if he's healthy, that he'll be essentially the starter so I look at him as a long-range play. Roth is an IDP target is he is listed as a DLman and he is in some leagues so if the above projections aren't worth a start if he is listed as a LB in your league then look elsewhere but I think the above are reasonable projections if those players remain healthy.
The Browns defense stunk it up last night against the Lions but their was one thing that caught my eye. David Bowens saw his first action of the preseason. I felt the coaches would start to get him into the mix and further cloud the ILB position.
Mangini has come out after each game to address certain things and he has stated after the GB game how rookie CB Joe Haden mistimed his blitz and showed it too early and Aarron Rodgers easily read it, the blitz, and burned rookie S T.J. Ward who had great coverage on his WR but Rodgers placed his toss perfectly.
Great coverage by T.J. but a bad timed blitz by rookie CB Joe Haden.
It was a great explanation by Mangini and it made sense to me.
Last night he addressed the defensive struggles by stating that the timing is just a tad off and that guys are very close with pressure to the QB but that it is a bit off. He explained the fits for some of the run breakdowns were off and that is all it takes but he also said that he expects the timing to firm up and the adjustments to be made to fix the other problems.
So the team defense concept applies much more to a defense like the Browns where each player is dependent on the other guy being in the right spot at the right time. The Browns had 40 sacks last year and so far this preason they haven't gotten any. Their is proven pass rush ability from a few of the LBers and I have to think the inability to get any traps stems from some growing pains from rookies and from trying to settle on starters and the timing/alignment mishaps that would follow.
I acknowlege the struggles and I also acknowledge people who look at the talent and think, feh, nothing there but think that T.J. is legit and he had another solid outing 3 solos and 2 assists. I think Joe Haden is a good long term play and he is improving. Last night he had his best statistical game 2 solos 2 assists and 1 PD where he broke up a pass in the endzone. I have been a Matt Roth pimp, especially if he's listed as DLman and although he didn't blow up he had a steady night as he played the run solidly 1 solo 2 assists in less than three quarters.
I have to think Rob Ryan is keeping some things under wraps and that the pass rush will come when the regular season begins so I'll stick my neck out further and do projections based on what I've seen and how I think these players will be used with the caveat that they remain relatively healthy during the year.
Safety T.J. Ward
60-72 tackles, 2-3 interceptions, 2-4 FF, 1-2 FR, 2-4 sacks, 3-6 PD
CB Joe Haden
30-35 tackles, 4-7 interceptions, 1-2 FF, 1-2 FR, 1- sack, 9-11 PD
LB/DE Matt Roth
62-71 tackles, 0 interceptions, 1-2 FF, 1-2 FR, 6-9 sacks, 1-3 PD
I think the above are reasonable if these players remain healthy. Haden is a rookie and veteran Sheldon Brown will either start or split time with him but I think by the end of the year, if he's healthy, that he'll be essentially the starter so I look at him as a long-range play. Roth is an IDP target is he is listed as a DLman and he is in some leagues so if the above projections aren't worth a start if he is listed as a LB in your league then look elsewhere but I think the above are reasonable projections if those players remain healthy.
