PROJECT OR DIE: Yu Darvish (1 Viewer)

[Notorious T.R.E.]

Back by popular demand is the Project-Or-Die series of forum projections. I'll propose a player every day or two and yu project statistics in the major categories as follows:

Bats: AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, R, SB

Arms: IP, ERA, WHIP, W, Saves, Strikeouts

I'll start a separate thread and track the high, low and average projections for each player. Yu can suggest players for Project-Or-Die installments in that thread.

First player up for projection is a real wild-card. The Texas Rangers recently signed Yu Darvish to a 6/$60MM deal with another $10MM in incentives. Add that to the transfer fee they paid Yu's Japanese club and the Rangers have invested ace-level money on him.

There's some reason to believe he can be worth it. In Japan, he's posted 5 consecutive seasons with a sub-2.00 ERA. He was lights out in the World Baseball Classic. Darvish is white-guy big too at 6'5" and 225 lbs. To me, he's got some Kevin Brown in

. Especially with the leg kick. His fastball is 92-95 and he has a sharp slider and a plus splitter (88-91) as well. So, what do yu think? Irabu-esque, Dice-K, somewhere in between or something much more? Project... or die.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Lineup helps him, park hurts him. Factor in some stateside adjustment period and we'll go:

14-9 4.25 Era. 1.20 whip. 170 ks in 205 Ip

Lock it in Tre

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

Lineup helps him, park hurts him. Factor in some stateside adjustment period and we'll go:14-9 4.25 Era. 1.20 whip. 170 ks in 205 IpLock it in Tre

Consider it locked, gb. Congrats on the first projection of the year!

 

[Brady Marino]

Better than Rice-Kakes, MUCH better than Irabu, probably the same level as Nomo with the potential for being better.

13-10, 3.97 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 189 IP, 160 K, 98 BB.

He won't be a world-beater off the bat, but he'll give Rangers fans enough to believe he'll adjust to be a fine #1 or #2 by the end of 2013.

 

[Kubes]

I'm generally anti-imports, especially bats, but something about Darvish tickles me right where I itch. I think he's overall a success:

15-8, 3.88 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 210 ips with 180 Ks. also 57 saves.

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

at 57 save. #thigpennedit

 

[Michael Brown]

Think he'll tire some in the Texas heat and the long season after a hot start. The K's will be there, but the peripherals suffer as the year goes alone. Still a more than serviceable fantasy SP.

13-10, 200 K in 200 IP, 3.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

 

[Eephus]

I'll be the skeptic: 177 IP, 11 wins, 161 Ks, 1.31 WHIP, 4.12 ERA

 

[guru_007]

16-8, 180 ip, 1.22 whip, 155 k's, 3.90 era

 

[jfranco77]

185 innings, 14-9, 3.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 205 ks

 

[oso diablo]

I'll be the skeptic: 177 IP, 11 wins, 161 Ks, 1.31 WHIP, 4.12 ERA

i'll be the fan-boy. Picked up Darvish two years ago in my fantasy league's reserve draft. (though, alas, it's an NL only league, so have to ditch him)18-8215 IP235 K2.87 ERA1.03 WHIP

 

[Captain Hook]

We currently have him projected for

(copying format since others have strayed)

Arms: IP, ERA, WHIP, W, Saves, Strikeouts

200 IP, 3.960 ERA, 1.265 WHIP, 13 W, 185 K

Personally I think he will slightly less innings and slightly better ERA but its close

 

[Pots]

ERAs seem pretty consistant with ~3.60-4.20, you realize even the high side of that is very good for the Rangers ballpark.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

13-103.92 ERA1.31 WHIP140 K's185 IP

This looks about right.

 

[the moops]

16-7

3.85 ERA

1.32 WHIP

165 K

297 IP

 

[Tremendous Upside]

My 1.20 whip should have been 1.30 for the record

Effing phones

 

[the moops]

16-7

3.85 ERA

1.32 WHIP

165 K

297 IP

Yu Darvish: Man or Robot?

Ha. 197

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

Pitcher ERA G IP H ER HR BB K WHIP K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9Darvish 1.60 54 434 314 77 10 83 498 0.91 10.3 1.7 6.00 0.2Matsuzaka 2.22 53 401 310 99 26 83 426 0.98 9.6 1.9 5.13 0.6Irabu.. 2.47 51 360 266 99 N/A 131 406 1.10 10.1 3.3 3.10 N/AIshii.. 2.99 58 358 273 119 33 146 383 1.17 9.6 3.7 2.62 0.8Igawa.. 3.38 56 381 379 143 40 109 339 1.28 8.0 2.6 3.11 0.9Nomo... 3.68 49 357 N/A 146 N/A 234 402 N/A 10.1 5.9 1.72 N/A
Japanese pitchers' last two seasons in the NPB before coming over.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Pitcher  	ERA  	G  	IP  	H  	ER  	HR  	BB  	K  	WHIP  	K/9  	BB/9  	K/BB  	HR/9Darvish 	1.60 	54 	434 	314 	77 	10 	83 	498 	0.91 	10.3 	1.7 	6.00 	0.2Matsuzaka 	2.22 	53 	401  	310 	99 	26 	83 	426 	0.98 	9.6 	1.9 	5.13 	0.6Irabu.. 	2.47 	51 	360  	266 	99 	N/A 	131 	406 	1.10 	10.1 	3.3 	3.10 	N/AIshii.. 	2.99 	58 	358 	273 	119 	33 	146 	383 	1.17 	9.6 	3.7 	2.62 	0.8Igawa.. 	3.38 	56 	381  	379 	143 	40 	109 	339 	1.28 	8.0 	2.6 	3.11 	0.9Nomo... 	3.68 	49 	357  	N/A 	146 	N/A 	234 	402 	N/A 	10.1 	5.9 	1.72 	N/A

Japanese pitchers' last two seasons in the NPB before coming over.

This tells me that Japanese batter are either not that good, or not juicing enough.14-10200 IP170 K'sERA: 4.10WHIP: 1.33

 

[Eephus]

Pitcher  	ERA  	G  	IP  	H  	ER  	HR  	BB  	K  	WHIP  	K/9  	BB/9  	K/BB  	HR/9Darvish 	1.60 	54 	434 	314 	77 	10 	83 	498 	0.91 	10.3 	1.7 	6.00 	0.2Matsuzaka 	2.22 	53 	401  	310 	99 	26 	83 	426 	0.98 	9.6 	1.9 	5.13 	0.6Irabu.. 	2.47 	51 	360  	266 	99 	N/A 	131 	406 	1.10 	10.1 	3.3 	3.10 	N/AIshii.. 	2.99 	58 	358 	273 	119 	33 	146 	383 	1.17 	9.6 	3.7 	2.62 	0.8Igawa.. 	3.38 	56 	381  	379 	143 	40 	109 	339 	1.28 	8.0 	2.6 	3.11 	0.9Nomo... 	3.68 	49 	357  	N/A 	146 	N/A 	234 	402 	N/A 	10.1 	5.9 	1.72 	N/A

Japanese pitchers' last two seasons in the NPB before coming over.

Japanese hitters must have drank sake and tied scarves around their heads before stepping in vs. Nomo

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

Pitcher  	ERA  	G  	IP  	H  	ER  	HR  	BB  	K  	WHIP  	K/9  	BB/9  	K/BB  	HR/9Darvish 	1.60 	54 	434 	314 	77 	10 	83 	498 	0.91 	10.3 	1.7 	6.00 	0.2Matsuzaka 	2.22 	53 	401  	310 	99 	26 	83 	426 	0.98 	9.6 	1.9 	5.13 	0.6Irabu.. 	2.47 	51 	360  	266 	99 	N/A 	131 	406 	1.10 	10.1 	3.3 	3.10 	N/AIshii.. 	2.99 	58 	358 	273 	119 	33 	146 	383 	1.17 	9.6 	3.7 	2.62 	0.8Igawa.. 	3.38 	56 	381  	379 	143 	40 	109 	339 	1.28 	8.0 	2.6 	3.11 	0.9Nomo... 	3.68 	49 	357  	N/A 	146 	N/A 	234 	402 	N/A 	10.1 	5.9 	1.72 	N/A

Japanese pitchers' last two seasons in the NPB before coming over.

Japanese hitters must have drank sake and tied scarves around their heads before stepping in vs. Nomo

That 5.9 BB/9 would not sim well.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

WTF were the Yankees thinking giving Igawa that much $$$

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

WTF were the Yankees thinking giving Igawa that much $$$

I think he threw 95 and was left-handed, no? Plus, they're the Yankees.

 

[scoobus]

11-6

183 IP

161 Ks

3.84 ERA

1.29 WHIP

 

[guru_007]

ERAs seem pretty consistant with ~3.60-4.20, you realize even the high side of that is very good for the Rangers ballpark.

Matt Harrison's ERA last year was 3.39CJ Wilson's ERA the past three years has been 2.81, 3.35, 2.94Derek Holland posted a sub 4.00 era last yearPlus, the Rangers bullpen is pretty stocked now....and they get to pitch a boatload of games against the likes of Oakland and Seattle, not exactly offensive power houses.I actually think people will overspend on Darvish for his k potential, where he may well fall short, but he should do well in the ratio categories, imho.

 

[Annyong]

14-10

200 IP

170 K's

ERA: 4.10

WHIP: 1.33

 

[rodg12]

16-8

210 IP

187 K

3.68 ERA

1.35 WHIP

 

[rodg12]

WTF were the Yankees thinking giving Igawa that much $$$

I think he threw 95 and was left-handed, no? Plus, they're the Yankees.

I swear they didn't scout the guy. Went purely off #s, MPH readings and a desire to match the Sux signing of Dice-K. Sure he was a lefty that touched 94, but those 90-94 pitches were ####-shot fastballs.

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

I think he has pitch count troubles as he figures out the MLB strike zone, which affects his win totals and IP:

11-9

188 IP

165 K

3.75 ERA

1.37 WHIP

 

[Doctor Detroit]

13-103.92 ERA1.31 WHIP140 K's185 IP

This looks about right.

15-94.02 ERA1.30 WHIP205 K's176 IPOutside the K's pretty close, but way more K's than expected. Probably a #1 fantasy pitcher going forward, 21st among starters in standard 5X5 this year.