Projecting Jahvid Best's 2010 (1 Viewer)

[Bradford4Prez]

Here is my stab:

203 carries

897 yards

4.4 YPC

8 TD

66 rec

501 yards

7.6 YPC

2 TD

That would be 193 in Standard and 259 in PPR.

 

[No Way Jose]

Well thats not asking too much....That would of put him 5th last year behind Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, MJD, ADP in a ppr league.

I think those numbers would be his ceiling honestly

 

[Hendo]

Im not falling for the hype he has however i will say this. That kid has been the most freakiest playmaking RB I have saw come out of college in a long long time. He oozes highlight reel plays both running and catching the ball. If this kid was just a little bigger and built like Mathews he'd be a top 5 pick this year. I don't know if he'd hit those numbers this season as I agree that is probably his peak in his rookie season however I am not doubting him. One area that he extremely excels at is his superior vision. He seems to see the field almost to perfection, something is and will put him over the likes of Spiller from this draft. Too many people think he's a scat back but scat backs do not carry vision like this, he runs really well between the tackles esp for a back his size.

 

[Glaven]

My guess:

210 carries, 966 yards, 5 TDs 35 receptions, 350 yards, 1 TD

 

[EBF]

I would look towards Reggie Bush and Maurice Jones-Drew for examples of how he'll probably be used. Here are their rookie stats:

Reggie Bush 2006 - 155 carries, 565 rushing yards (3.6 YPC), 88 catches, 742 receiving yards (8.4 YPR)

Maurice Jones-Drew 2006 - 166 carries, 941 rushing yards (5.7 YPC), 46 catches, 436 receiving yards (9.5 YPR)

Bush and MJD both averaged about 10 carries per game as rookies. I think Best will probably carry the ball a little bit more than these guys did because there's no Deuce McAllister or Fred Taylor on the Lions. The other Detroit RBs suck, so Best should be forced to pick up some of the slack. I'll say 13 carries per game. I expect his YPC to be a lot higher than Bush's 3.6, but probably lower than MJD's 5.7. I'll split the difference and say:

208 carries, 956 rushing yards (4.7 YPC)

I think he'll be a big factor in the passing game. I don't think he'll get 88 catches like Bush, but I think he'll get more than MJD's 46. I'll say 25% of the gap between MJD and Bush, which would be about 57 catches. I'll estimate his YPR right in the middle at 9.0. All in all, I expect something like:

208 carries, 956 rushing yards (4.7 YPC), 57 catches, 513 receiving yards (9.0) YPR

Reggie scored 8 TDs as a rookie. MJD scored 15. Since the Lions are still a pretty bad team and since Best probably isn't an ideal goal line back, I'll say 10 TDs. I expect him to get a couple more than Reggie because I think he'll break more big plays.

208 carries, 956 rushing yards (4.7 YPC), 57 catches, 513 receiving yards (9.0) YPR, 10 total TDs

That equates to 263.9 points in a 16 game season, which would put him right on the cusp of the top 10 RBs in most years.

 

[Mark Wimer]

I've got him down for 900-1,000 yards rushing, 5-6 TDs rushing, 30/360-450/1 receiving, #22 in the league (PPR). A solid RB2 prospect, with possible RB1 potential if Stafford progresses this year and if Burleson provides a solid WR2 there, IMO.

Too many ? marks to be too high on him in May, but he is one of the players who could climb my rankings/projections once we see how the rest of the DET offense shakes out.

NFC North could be a track-meet type division this year, IMO. Lots of high-scoring games, potentially.

 

[Mark Wimer]

I've got him down for 900-1,000 yards rushing, 5-6 TDs rushing, 30/360-450/1 receiving, #22 in the league (PPR). A solid RB2 prospect, with possible RB1 potential if Stafford progresses this year and if Burleson provides a solid WR2 there, IMO.Too many ? marks to be too high on him in May, but he is one of the players who could climb my rankings/projections once we see how the rest of the DET offense shakes out. NFC North could be a track-meet type division this year, IMO. Lots of high-scoring games, potentially.

Looking at that projection, I just added 15 receptions to make it 45/360-450/1 receiving. He is a very capable receiver out of the backfield, but I was probably wildly optimistic on the yards-per-reception in my projection posted above.

 

[Ilov80s]

Best is a tough guy to really project. His ceiling is Chris Johnson and his floor is he never has fully recovered from the concussion and is essentially a zero in the NFL...with everything inbetween as a possibility. He is the ultimate boom-bust.