Projections for Jax/Atl tonight...what'cha got? (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

Forget the supporting cast like Gabbert or any Jax Receiver/TE, let's focus on the stars of this game.

What do you see tonight for MJD and Michael Turner?

What do you see for Roddy White and Julio Jones?

Do you think Harry Douglas or Tony Gonzalez can steal the spotlight?

MJD IMO will not come close to what he did last week, however it should be noted the Falcons have suddenly started giving up 150 yds on the ground the last 2 weeks after holding teams to about 50-75 on the ground the previous 4 weeks in a row. Arian Foster had a short TD 2 weeks ago, DWill last week, but the 5 weeks prior to that Atlanta did not give up a single rushing TD. This is at home but certainly a fast track so maybe MJD can get loose and his receivng yds can bridge the gap. I don't see MJD being top5 this week although you would never bench the guy.

Jax passing game...BENCH

Michael Turner has been pretty cold the last few weeks, nursing some injuries, he's a tough start tonight IMO. Weeks 12, 13, and 14 he has a total of 54 carries for 180 yds and zero TDs...that's about 6 pts in most leagues so he is in DUD range right now. I don't see a lot of upside this week but let's look at the Jax pass defense and see if that offers any insight.

The Jags have some pretty low passing totals on defense much of the season, let me share...@NYJ 180, @Car 158, CIN 162, @Pitt 185, BAL 112, @Hou 202, @Indy 128, @Cle 186, HOU 127, TB 170...granted there are some bad QBs on that list, some back ups, but a few quality QBs along the way too. Only New Orleans has really lit this Jags secondary up and they were passing all day long in the game where Brees threw for 326...Rivers hit them for 290 a couple weeks ago.

Matt Ryan will be lucky to hit the 225-250 range tonight. These players are rejuvenated with a new head coach and I believe either Roddy White or Julio Jones is going leave owners with a warm feeling at the end of the night, and I'm not talking cuddly fuzzies here but more likely the inseam on your pants as you are left with a big giant hole going into the weekend.

Wadda ya got tonight? Is this thread making you think twice, nervous, total MOP BS as usual, what do you feel about tonight's game?

 

[Raiderfan32904]

I wouldn't mind another 2 TD performance from Julio. Yards, catches..that's all gravy.

 

[shadyridr]

I believe one of Roddy or Julio will have a monster game. Jax secondary is decimated, Ryan dominates in the dome, and they havent faced many good QBs this year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I wouldn't mind another 2 TD performance from Julio. Yards, catches..that's all gravy.

Is that realistic? How about a 4/50 performance tonight, would that surprise you and maybe White ends up with 5/80/2 TD? Maybe Gonzalez ends up with the receiving TDs?White 5/75Jones 4/50Gonzo 4/60/TDDouglas 3/30/TDThat would not be a fun night for a lot of owners and that's almost 250 yds passing for Matt Ryan.

 

[Jimbo Slice]

I think Ryan throws one to gonzo and one to either roddy or Julio [Only your undertaker knows for sure (bonus points for quote identification)] he'll have modest yardage as there will be no need to throw for most of the game. That's why he'll be on the bench for tebow.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I believe one of Roddy or Julio will have a monster game. Jax secondary is decimated, Ryan dominates in the dome, and they havent faced many good QBs this year.

That's a good point Shady but they haven't all been bad QBs, only Brees threw for over 300 and Rivers was pretty good 2 weeks ago. Do you put Matt Ryan on their level?

 

[shadyridr]

I believe one of Roddy or Julio will have a monster game. Jax secondary is decimated, Ryan dominates in the dome, and they havent faced many good QBs this year.

That's a good point Shady but they haven't all been bad QBs, only Brees threw for over 300 and Rivers was pretty good 2 weeks ago. Do you put Matt Ryan on their level?

Thats kind of my point. Looking at their schedule, the only 3 good Qbs they faced were Brees, Rivers, & Ben. The first two guys dominated. Id put Ryan on par right below those QBs and above every other QB they have faced.

 

[Modog814]

I'll say Gabbert goes for 19/33 176 1 TD/1 int, No single WR does anything great, but the TD reception I'll say goes to Lewis. I say both MJD and Lewis lead team in receiving with 5/55 each. MJD adds 94 on the ground on 23 carries and a TD.

Ryan goes 22/35 for 205 yards also with 1 td and 1 int. Gonzo scores the td (6/52/1) while white adds 6/57. Julio is a disappointing 3 for 36. Turner goes 17 for 67 on the ground with a TD.

I'll say Atlanta wins the game 20-17 (maybe 21-17 with the extra TD being a pass from Ryan to White).

 

[Bad_Mo]

"MJD IMO will not come close to what he did last week"

I'm hoping he got some TDs out of his system last week since I'm going against him this week. I think ATL does well through the air, gets an early lead and Jax has to play catch-up all night.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I'll say Gabbert goes for 19/33 176 1 TD/1 int, No single WR does anything great, but the TD reception I'll say goes to Lewis. I say both MJD and Lewis lead team in receiving with 5/55 each. MJD adds 94 on the ground on 23 carries and a TD.Ryan goes 22/35 for 205 yards also with 1 td and 1 int. Gonzo scores the td (6/52/1) while white adds 6/57. Julio is a disappointing 3 for 36. Turner goes 17 for 67 on the ground with a TD.I'll say Atlanta wins the game 20-17 (maybe 21-17 with the extra TD being a pass from Ryan to White).

Solid Modog, ty

 

[Tat]

ATL is playing for a playoff spot, the dome ought to give Gabbert some problems. I am rolling with the Atlanta D, to hopefully get a few sacks and an INT or two.

Thinking about benching MJD in one league as there is no PPR, and I think that's where he'll do his most damage.

 

[davidwb]

Any time that Jax gets close to the end zone, they will feed the ball to MJD. How often will they get inside the 10? Maybe 3 times? Perhaps he scores twice? Yards may be tough to come by.

MJD stats:

Rushing yards: 75

Receiving yards: 20

Receptions: 4

TDs: 2

 

[thriftyrocker]

Onto more important stuff, should I bench Matt Bryant? JAX is one of the worst matchups for kickers somehow.

 

[Apple Jack]

Not sure I'd sit MJD in any format.

Jags cover.

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

The Jaguars rush defense is still middle of the road, but their starting corners are undrafted rookie Kevin Rutland and something called an Ashton Youboty. I expect Matt Ryan to have a big game. Atlanta should win this game in blow-out fashion.

Ryan: 315, 3/0

White: 135/1

Gonzo: 85/2

 

[Shlon]

It's the Jaguars 3rd game in 11 days, have to travel, some injuries in the secondary and WR's... On paper, it's setup for a Falcons blowout but the one thing that's been consistent with the Falcons is that they have been inconsistent all year. The 2nd half of the Panthers game may have started something in the Falcons.

 

[Dought Man]

Ryan 235/2

Roddy 5/101/1

Gonzo 7/55/1

Julio 3/39/0

Turner 19/75/1

MJD 89/1 with 3/23

 

[Ministry of Pain]

The Jaguars rush defense is still middle of the road, but their starting corners are undrafted rookie Kevin Rutland and something called an Ashton Youboty. I expect Matt Ryan to have a big game. Atlanta should win this game in blow-out fashion.

Ryan: 315, 3/0

White: 135/1

Gonzo: 85/2

Have they been starting all season?

 

[buck naked]

OK, I'll throw in a curveball.

Dodds has Jarett Dillard ranked at #30 this week. That means he is worth a start in all mandatory 3 WR leagues. I was surprised at this ranking. But as I investigated, I see that M. Thomas probably won't play, which by default I guess that makes Dillard the #1 WR.

Now perhaps that isn't saying much...but what is that saying? I know Jax passing offense is terrible, but Gabbert has to throw it to somebody and I expect Jax will be behind most of the game and will throw.

I'm playing for huge $$$ the next two weeks, and I've lost 5 stud starters in the last month (FJax, Forte, AJ, F. davis, Murray). I am in dire need of VERY high upside WRs this week. I'm trying to determine the extent of upside of Dillard tonight.

Dodds, where are you buddy? I need to hear the upside on this guy.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

OK, I'll throw in a curveball.Dodds has Jarett Dillard ranked at #30 this week. That means he is worth a start in all mandatory 3 WR leagues. I was surprised at this ranking. But as I investigated, I see that M. Thomas probably won't play, which by default I guess that makes Dillard the #1 WR. Now perhaps that isn't saying much...but what is that saying? I know Jax passing offense is terrible, but Gabbert has to throw it to somebody and I expect Jax will be behind most of the game and will throw. I'm playing for huge $$ the next two weeks, and I've lost 5 stud starters in the last month (FJax, Forte, AJ, F. davis, Murray). I am in dire need of VERY high upside WRs this week. I'm trying to determine the extent of upside of Dillard tonight.Dodds, where are you buddy? I need to hear the upside on this guy.

Dillard has not really shown that much IMO, a little here, a little there, I would expect MJD and Lewis(TE) to pick up the slack honestly. I don't see Gabbert throwing the lights out, he's been terrible. What are your options this week?

 

[Shlon]

The Jaguars rush defense is still middle of the road, but their starting corners are undrafted rookie Kevin Rutland and something called an Ashton Youboty. I expect Matt Ryan to have a big game. Atlanta should win this game in blow-out fashion.

Ryan: 315, 3/0

White: 135/1

Gonzo: 85/2

Have they been starting all season?

No, Youboty started seeing the field since week 11 and has been giving up a lot of yardage. Rutland has just started recently and hasn't been playing that much better than Youboty as well. The Jaguars are weak in the secondary because of injuries, however, their linebackers are very strong so the short passing game and Tony Gonzalez might be neutralized.

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

The Jaguars rush defense is still middle of the road, but their starting corners are undrafted rookie Kevin Rutland and something called an Ashton Youboty. I expect Matt Ryan to have a big game. Atlanta should win this game in blow-out fashion.

Ryan: 315, 3/0

White: 135/1

Gonzo: 85/2

Have they been starting all season?

No. Derek Cox and Rashean Mathis have joined 25 other Jaguars on IR.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

The Jaguars rush defense is still middle of the road, but their starting corners are undrafted rookie Kevin Rutland and something called an Ashton Youboty. I expect Matt Ryan to have a big game. Atlanta should win this game in blow-out fashion.

Ryan: 315, 3/0

White: 135/1

Gonzo: 85/2

Have they been starting all season?

No, Youboty started seeing the field since week 11 and has been giving up a lot of yardage. Rutland has just started recently and hasn't been playing that much better than Youboty as well. The Jaguars are weak in the secondary because of injuries, however, their linebackers are very strong so the short passing game and Tony Gonzalez might be neutralized.

Oh hell yeah

I might reconsider Jones tonight. I have the luxury of Calvin, Nicks, A.Brown, Boldin, and D.Williams, start 3, so I was gonna maybe sit and wait till the weekend to start 3 of the other 5, that's great info, maybe Ryan will tattoo these guys tonight.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

The Jaguars rush defense is still middle of the road, but their starting corners are undrafted rookie Kevin Rutland and something called an Ashton Youboty. I expect Matt Ryan to have a big game. Atlanta should win this game in blow-out fashion.

Ryan: 315, 3/0

White: 135/1

Gonzo: 85/2

Have they been starting all season?

No. Derek Cox and Rashean Mathis have joined 25 other Jaguars on IR.

TY Mr B, very good info to point out. You and Shlon, great info.

 

[buck naked]

OK, I'll throw in a curveball.Dodds has Jarett Dillard ranked at #30 this week. That means he is worth a start in all mandatory 3 WR leagues. I was surprised at this ranking. But as I investigated, I see that M. Thomas probably won't play, which by default I guess that makes Dillard the #1 WR. Now perhaps that isn't saying much...but what is that saying? I know Jax passing offense is terrible, but Gabbert has to throw it to somebody and I expect Jax will be behind most of the game and will throw. I'm playing for huge $$ the next two weeks, and I've lost 5 stud starters in the last month (FJax, Forte, AJ, F. davis, Murray). I am in dire need of VERY high upside WRs this week. I'm trying to determine the extent of upside of Dillard tonight.Dodds, where are you buddy? I need to hear the upside on this guy.

Dillard has not really shown that much IMO, a little here, a little there, I would expect MJD and Lewis(TE) to pick up the slack honestly. I don't see Gabbert throwing the lights out, he's been terrible. What are your options this week?

PM to be sent, rather than make this a WDIS.

 

[Wadsworth]

-Dillard, West, Price and Osgood. If Gabbert can even look not awful with that group of WRs he might deserve Rookie of the Week.

-The Jaguars defense has somehow managed to not look terrible recently in spite of serious injury issues. How serious? 3 of the top 4 CBs, 3 of the top 4 safeties, 1 of the top 3 LBs, 4 of the top 5 DE are out. That does not include other players that likely would be starting because of other injuries but are injured themselves. Tonight the Jaguars will have their 13th different starting line up on the defensive side of the ball this season including 3 starting members of secondary that were not with the team until recently. 3rd game in 11 days, on the road... All signs point toward big nights for Atlanta players across the board.

 

[unckeyherb]

Is this one of those games where you'd start Julio and White? I can't seem to bring myself to do it, as I worry that this will be a let down game for Julio. I know he had two TDs last week, but that last one seemed like the defense gave up on it. That one play resulted in 1/3 of his catches, 3/4 of his yards and 1/2 of his TD's. I don't like to discount plays, but you also can't look at it in a vacuum. IIRC, he also dropped 2-3 passes in the end zone. I just wonder if Ryan will go back to feeding Roddy in those situations, adding even more targets to his already obscene count.

Reading through the posts above it seems a lot of people kind of agree that this may be a stinker for Julio...hmm....

 

[Dought Man]

Is this one of those games where you'd start Julio and White? I can't seem to bring myself to do it, as I worry that this will be a let down game for Julio. I know he had two TDs last week, but that last one seemed like the defense gave up on it. That one play resulted in 1/3 of his catches, 3/4 of his yards and 1/2 of his TD's. I don't like to discount plays, but you also can't look at it in a vacuum. IIRC, he also dropped 2-3 passes in the end zone. I just wonder if Ryan will go back to feeding Roddy in those situations, adding even more targets to his already obscene count. Reading through the posts above it seems a lot of people kind of agree that this may be a stinker for Julio...hmm....

Yep, this reeeks up a 15 target kind of game for Roddy. Julio will likely see safety help due to his speed... which doesnt help. Ryan is told never to throw into double coverage. He isn't Eli Manning who will just throw it up there for his guys to go make plays. He takes what the defense gives him. Lots of Gonzo in the flat and Roddy on intermediate routes tonight.

 

[Superbowl Shuffle]

All of Julio's strong games have come on the road this year. In fact, he only has 5 catches for 54 yards at home (3 games played). I'm following the trend and benching him this week.

My standard scoring league:

WK OPP REC YDS TD PTS

1 @Chi 5 71 0 7

2 Phi 2 29 0 2

3 @TB 6 115 0 11

4 @Sea 11 127 0 12

5 GB 1 16 0 2

6 Car 0 0 0 0

7 @Det 0 0 0 0

8 BYE - - - -

9 @Ind 3 131 2 28

10 NO 2 9 0 0

11 Ten 0 0 0 0

12 Min 0 0 0 0

13 @Hou 4 68 0 6

14 @Car 3 104 2 22

15 Jac - - - -

16 @NO - - - -

17 TB - - - -

 

[Shlon]

All of Julio's strong games have come on the road this year. In fact, he only has 5 catches for 54 yards at home (3 games played). I'm following the trend and benching him this week.My standard scoring league: WK OPP REC YDS TD PTS 1 @Chi 5 71 0 7 2 Phi 2 29 0 2 3 @TB 6 115 0 11 4 @Sea 11 127 0 12 5 GB 1 16 0 2 6 Car 0 0 0 0 7 @Det 0 0 0 0 8 BYE - - - - 9 @Ind 3 131 2 28 10 NO 2 9 0 0 11 Ten 0 0 0 0 12 Min 0 0 0 0 13 @Hou 4 68 0 6 14 @Car 3 104 2 22 15 Jac - - - - 16 @NO - - - - 17 TB - - - -

Only full game he played at home was against the Eagles, he left due to injury in the early first half in both Packers & Saints games. Missed Panthers, Titans, Vikings games due to injury.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

All of Julio's strong games have come on the road this year. In fact, he only has 5 catches for 54 yards at home (3 games played). I'm following the trend and benching him this week.My standard scoring league: WK OPP REC YDS TD PTS 1 @Chi 5 71 0 7 2 Phi 2 29 0 2 3 @TB 6 115 0 11 4 @Sea 11 127 0 12 5 GB 1 16 0 2 6 Car 0 0 0 0 7 @Det 0 0 0 0 8 BYE - - - - 9 @Ind 3 131 2 28 10 NO 2 9 0 0 11 Ten 0 0 0 0 12 Min 0 0 0 0 13 @Hou 4 68 0 6 14 @Car 3 104 2 22 15 Jac - - - - 16 @NO - - - - 17 TB - - - -

You guys are knockin' it out today with some really good stats and trends. We might have to do this for more games before the weekend.

 

[Shutout]

Snelling gets a TD tonight..play him if you are decimated.

I'm playing against MJD and if my season continues as it has all year, expect another career night #SMH#.

Just been that kind of year. Get him in your lineups, along with Gonzo and Julio...I'm gonna get bombed into the prehistoric age tonight in this game and get to sit and dwell on it for three days..

Is it too early to open the Week 15 Venting thread???LOL

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I still lean towards Julio being a much better play than originally thought.

 

[buck naked]

Is this one of those games where you'd start Julio and White?

This depends on your other options, of course. But, I've been starting the both of them all year in my NFFC and FFPC main event teams, and will continue to do so in the championship brackets. You never know when Jones is going to catch one of those long passes, which he has done several times this year. The most important thing to me is he keeps getting those opportunities. Against a bad Jax secondary, I'll take my chances.

 

[C-Bound]

Julio got 3 straight endzone passes his way from inside the 20 in the first half of the Panthers game...bench him at your own peril.

 

[unckeyherb]

All of Julio's strong games have come on the road this year. In fact, he only has 5 catches for 54 yards at home (3 games played). I'm following the trend and benching him this week.My standard scoring league: WK OPP REC YDS TD PTS 1 @Chi 5 71 0 7 2 Phi 2 29 0 2 3 @TB 6 115 0 11 4 @Sea 11 127 0 12 5 GB 1 16 0 2 6 Car 0 0 0 0 7 @Det 0 0 0 0 8 BYE - - - - 9 @Ind 3 131 2 28 10 NO 2 9 0 0 11 Ten 0 0 0 0 12 Min 0 0 0 0 13 @Hou 4 68 0 6 14 @Car 3 104 2 22 15 Jac - - - - 16 @NO - - - - 17 TB - - - -

You guys are knockin' it out today with some really good stats and trends. We might have to do this for more games before the weekend.

Agreed. I can't remember the last time I read through so much useful info in so few posts...

 

[shadyridr]

All of Julio's strong games have come on the road this year. In fact, he only has 5 catches for 54 yards at home (3 games played). I'm following the trend and benching him this week.My standard scoring league: WK OPP REC YDS TD PTS 1 @Chi 5 71 0 7 2 Phi 2 29 0 2 3 @TB 6 115 0 11 4 @Sea 11 127 0 12 5 GB 1 16 0 2 6 Car 0 0 0 0 7 @Det 0 0 0 0 8 BYE - - - - 9 @Ind 3 131 2 28 10 NO 2 9 0 0 11 Ten 0 0 0 0 12 Min 0 0 0 0 13 @Hou 4 68 0 6 14 @Car 3 104 2 22 15 Jac - - - - 16 @NO - - - - 17 TB - - - -

Only full game he played at home was against the Eagles, he left due to injury in the early first half in both Packers & Saints games. Missed Panthers, Titans, Vikings games due to injury.

so youre saying hes gonna get hurt tonight?

 

[Shlon]

All of Julio's strong games have come on the road this year. In fact, he only has 5 catches for 54 yards at home (3 games played). I'm following the trend and benching him this week.My standard scoring league: WK OPP REC YDS TD PTS 1 @Chi 5 71 0 7 2 Phi 2 29 0 2 3 @TB 6 115 0 11 4 @Sea 11 127 0 12 5 GB 1 16 0 2 6 Car 0 0 0 0 7 @Det 0 0 0 0 8 BYE - - - - 9 @Ind 3 131 2 28 10 NO 2 9 0 0 11 Ten 0 0 0 0 12 Min 0 0 0 0 13 @Hou 4 68 0 6 14 @Car 3 104 2 22 15 Jac - - - - 16 @NO - - - - 17 TB - - - -

Only full game he played at home was against the Eagles, he left due to injury in the early first half in both Packers & Saints games. Missed Panthers, Titans, Vikings games due to injury.

so youre saying hes gonna get hurt tonight?

Nope, but he didn't have much opportunity for home games. His hamstring injury shouldn't come up again (crosses fingers).

 

[hoopvillian]

I'm starting Julio. No stats or trends to back up my gut feeling, but I think he catches a bomb or two tonight.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Most of the Jaguars secondary is injured, including their top 3 corners . They're starting guys they signed off the street in the last few weeks. If you aren't willing to start a WR against them, just cut him from your roster.

 

[thehornet]

how many passes can we really expect gabbert to complete tonight? Over/Under at 12 seem too high?

 

[Tybeeman]

I'm going back and forth trying to decide between Julio tonight or Dez at TB. Leaning Dez right now

 

[need2know]

it would be nice to see the jags build on the game they had last week. the offense looked really good. as a mjd owner I would be happy with 70 rush yards 1 TD and 5 rec for 50....

 

[PatsFanCT]

Good info in here. Thanks guys. I'll start Ryan with confidence, and hope he hits Julio for a couple big ones. I'm playing against Turner and White and this is a big money week.

glta

 

[kegger]

I like Atlanta to roll in this as well, last monday people were saying not

to play SD players but as others have said I was like why the heck not that

Jags defense is decimated.

I would play every Decent Atlanta player tonight if you got em, on that Jags

side only player I would roll with is MJD.

---

Now question, what do we predict for the score, does Atlanta Cover? I say yes..

 

[jim k]

I think MJD will have a big game and score 2 tds.

Hoping to see a shootout from both sides.

 

[unckeyherb]

Is this one of those games where you'd start Julio and White?

This depends on your other options, of course. But, I've been starting the both of them all year in my NFFC and FFPC main event teams, and will continue to do so in the championship brackets. You never know when Jones is going to catch one of those long passes, which he has done several times this year. The most important thing to me is he keeps getting those opportunities. Against a bad Jax secondary, I'll take my chances.

how about in place of solid a WR3 ppr choice like S Moss? Or even a guy like Gaffney? I guess what it comes down to is whether I want to go with a guy that will almost certainly get me 10 points, but probably not more than that or a guy thats a coin flip for 3 points or 25. The more I think about it, luck favors the bold and this is playoff week 2-gotta chase the points.Julio it is.

 

[thehornet]

people expecting points out of jax are gonna be depressed after the game ends. last week was a fluke, sorry.

 

[Bruce Leroy]

ATL defense for 30 fantasy points! (Starting them over the Texans)

 

[SanDawg]

debating the ATL D myself, JAX is now playing the 3rd game in 10 days and on the road this week, could be a physically tired and sloppy team right now. I see that the ATL D has not had the numbers lately, but this could be the game at home. Other option is PIT D on the road. If Ben plays, I go Pit D, but if not, short field position possible at times for SF O. Starting to like the D tonight.