chris1969
Footballguy
Like a good poker game, this year's draft has started off with a bunch of smokescreens and bluffs, but a few teams are starting to show their cards. here's my take on the top 5 picks.
#1 Oakland, The writing seems to be on the wall, and even if they do pull off a trade with Moss, I don't think they can draft anything but a QB. The only QB's on the roster are Walters and Booty. They need a QB that the players, (especially the WR's), think can succeed in the Raiders system. ie.. air it out. There are no more FA's that can be that kind of QB. If they were to take a flyer on a second round QB, none of those guys look like they could be first year starters. That means if they don't draft a QB round 1, then they are planning to start Walters. I think the players would give up at half-time of the first game if that happened. Look for contract negotiations to start with both Russell and Quinn soon. Al Davis will try to get them in a bidding war, using the Leinart situation (where he dropped) to scare one of them to sign. He wants Russell, but he cares more about money. (edit... Culpepper coming available could change this, but it would be a huge risk to plan on having Gimpy start.)
#2 Detroit, 2 different situations here, they may have actually changed their minds, and really trully want to draft Quinn now, or they are bluffing and trying to posture to trade down. I personally think they are bluffing, but if they are, they picked the wrong guy to bluff with. Most teams feel that with their FA moves, they prob will not draft Thomas or Peterson. The teams at the top end of the draft that need QB's also need a lot of other things and can't afford to give a lot to trade up. that leaves a team like Miami or Minn to trade with and I'm not sure either is actively looking to trade up. Trent Green and David Carr are still out there, and if Green goes to Miami, like the rumors are saying, then Cullpepper is out there as well. If they really wanted to get trade offers, they should get Matt Millen in front of a microphone right now and say how much he's impressed with CJ and how well he thinks he would fit into the Lions scheme. Every GM in the league would say to himself, "You know, he's just crazy enough to do it!" I am willing to bet they'd get a lot more offers for the best player in the draft. If they don't trade, I see them get Gaines Adams.
#3 Cleveland, They are wanting to trade down as much as Detroit right now, but I think they are in a better position. It's a pretty good bet that Detroit is not taking Thomas or Peterson, so why trade with Detroit to get those guys and pay them #2 money and not #3 money. The Browns are pretty much a certain bet not to take CJ, but TB is sitting @ #4 and drooling to get CJ. So any team that wants CJ will be looking at this spot. rumors are that Atlanta has already been talking to Cleveland since they got the extra 2nd rounder. If the Browns are not able to trade down here, I see them picking Thomas over Peterson and Quinn. They can't afford to have Quinn sit the bench for a year as their first pick and Savage showed when he signed Lewis, what type of back he's looking for. He would prefer to drive a big ol' truck with a plow than a Ferarri. Peterson is not a Brown. If they don't trade down then I think Joe Thomas is the pick.
#4 TB is a team that can sit and wait to see how the draft pans out. They want CJ, but if he's not there, there will be somebody left that another team wants. or they could just take BPA. I don't think they take Quinn here though. That would make like 6 QB's on the roster. If they can't trade I would think Jamaal Anderson goes here.
#5 Arizona, They want Joe Thomas and should be motivated enough to trade up to get him. If they can't pull off a trade, they could try to trade down, especially if Peterson is sitting here. Buffalo and the Giants will really start to take interest if Peterson is still sitting here. If they can't trade either direction and with the top 2 DE's off the board, this could be where Laron Landry gets picked.
There's still alot of different things that could happen, but the picture for the top 5 is getting clearer every day. It's a free country, so if you think I'm nuts, tell me so.
#1 Oakland, The writing seems to be on the wall, and even if they do pull off a trade with Moss, I don't think they can draft anything but a QB. The only QB's on the roster are Walters and Booty. They need a QB that the players, (especially the WR's), think can succeed in the Raiders system. ie.. air it out. There are no more FA's that can be that kind of QB. If they were to take a flyer on a second round QB, none of those guys look like they could be first year starters. That means if they don't draft a QB round 1, then they are planning to start Walters. I think the players would give up at half-time of the first game if that happened. Look for contract negotiations to start with both Russell and Quinn soon. Al Davis will try to get them in a bidding war, using the Leinart situation (where he dropped) to scare one of them to sign. He wants Russell, but he cares more about money. (edit... Culpepper coming available could change this, but it would be a huge risk to plan on having Gimpy start.)
#2 Detroit, 2 different situations here, they may have actually changed their minds, and really trully want to draft Quinn now, or they are bluffing and trying to posture to trade down. I personally think they are bluffing, but if they are, they picked the wrong guy to bluff with. Most teams feel that with their FA moves, they prob will not draft Thomas or Peterson. The teams at the top end of the draft that need QB's also need a lot of other things and can't afford to give a lot to trade up. that leaves a team like Miami or Minn to trade with and I'm not sure either is actively looking to trade up. Trent Green and David Carr are still out there, and if Green goes to Miami, like the rumors are saying, then Cullpepper is out there as well. If they really wanted to get trade offers, they should get Matt Millen in front of a microphone right now and say how much he's impressed with CJ and how well he thinks he would fit into the Lions scheme. Every GM in the league would say to himself, "You know, he's just crazy enough to do it!" I am willing to bet they'd get a lot more offers for the best player in the draft. If they don't trade, I see them get Gaines Adams.
#3 Cleveland, They are wanting to trade down as much as Detroit right now, but I think they are in a better position. It's a pretty good bet that Detroit is not taking Thomas or Peterson, so why trade with Detroit to get those guys and pay them #2 money and not #3 money. The Browns are pretty much a certain bet not to take CJ, but TB is sitting @ #4 and drooling to get CJ. So any team that wants CJ will be looking at this spot. rumors are that Atlanta has already been talking to Cleveland since they got the extra 2nd rounder. If the Browns are not able to trade down here, I see them picking Thomas over Peterson and Quinn. They can't afford to have Quinn sit the bench for a year as their first pick and Savage showed when he signed Lewis, what type of back he's looking for. He would prefer to drive a big ol' truck with a plow than a Ferarri. Peterson is not a Brown. If they don't trade down then I think Joe Thomas is the pick.
#4 TB is a team that can sit and wait to see how the draft pans out. They want CJ, but if he's not there, there will be somebody left that another team wants. or they could just take BPA. I don't think they take Quinn here though. That would make like 6 QB's on the roster. If they can't trade I would think Jamaal Anderson goes here.
#5 Arizona, They want Joe Thomas and should be motivated enough to trade up to get him. If they can't pull off a trade, they could try to trade down, especially if Peterson is sitting here. Buffalo and the Giants will really start to take interest if Peterson is still sitting here. If they can't trade either direction and with the top 2 DE's off the board, this could be where Laron Landry gets picked.
There's still alot of different things that could happen, but the picture for the top 5 is getting clearer every day. It's a free country, so if you think I'm nuts, tell me so.
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