First off, the claim that a study used “the government’s own data” from VAERS to show that the CDC/FDA’s “red flag” criteria was crossed needs some scrutiny. VAERS, or the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, is a passive surveillance system where anyone—doctors, patients, or even random folks—can report adverse events after vaccination. It’s a valuable tool for detecting potential signals, but it’s not designed to prove causation. The data is raw and unverified, meaning reports aren’t necessarily confirmed as being caused by the vaccine. So, when someone says VAERS data shows a “red flag” was crossed, it’s often a misrepresentation of what VAERS can actually tell us.
Studies or claims relying solely on VAERS without further validation (like clinical studies or epidemiological analysis) are on shaky ground. The CDC and FDA don’t base their “red flag” criteria on unverified VAERS reports alone—they use multiple data sources, including active surveillance systems like V-safe and the Vaccine Safety Datalink, to assess risks.
Now, about the idea that risks are being downplayed or ignored, leading to calls for a “pause in vaccination”—this doesn’t hold up when you look at the broader evidence. Vaccine safety monitoring is ongoing and rigorous. When signals of potential issues arise, they’re investigated thoroughly.
Take myocarditis, for instance, which you mentioned. The FDA and CDC did identify a rare but elevated risk of myocarditis and pericarditis, particularly in younger males (12-24 years old) after mRNA vaccines like Pfizer and Moderna. This isn’t something that was swept under the rug. Studies, including those published in journals like *JAMA* and *The Lancet*, have quantified this risk, showing it’s higher in that demographic but still very rare—on the order of about 40-70 cases per million doses in young males, depending on the study. Compare that to the risk of myocarditis from COVID-19 itself, which is significantly higher, often by a factor of 5-10, even in the same age group. The benefit of vaccination in preventing severe illness, hospitalization, and long COVID still outweighs this rare risk for most people, which is why vaccination hasn’t been paused but rather tailored with updated guidance.
You’re right that the FDA has updated warning labels for myocarditis risk in that 12-24 age group, and that’s a good example of the system working. When data showed a clearer picture after stratifying by age, agencies acted by updating labels and informing healthcare providers to monitor for symptoms like chest pain post-vaccination.
The claim that risks were “lumped” into a 0-64 age group to downplay them isn’t accurate, though. Risk assessments have always involved breaking down data by demographics when possible, and early on, the signal for myocarditis in younger males was identified precisely because of this stratification. It wasn’t hidden; it just took time to gather enough data for statistical significance. Public health communication sometimes lags behind the science as they balance clarity with avoiding unnecessary panic, but the data wasn’t manipulated or obscured.
As for the US changing its vaccine strategy due to a better understanding of risk versus benefit, that’s partially true but not in the way the anti-vax take might imply. Strategies evolve as we learn more about who’s most at risk from COVID-19 and who benefits most from vaccination. For example, booster recommendations have been refined to prioritize older adults and immunocompromised individuals over younger, healthy people in some cases, because the risk of severe outcomes from COVID-19 is much higher in those groups.
This isn’t about vaccines being “too risky” overall; it’s about optimizing public health resources and tailoring recommendations. The myocarditis risk, while real, hasn’t led to a wholesale rejection of vaccines in younger groups—rather, it’s led to informed consent and monitoring protocols.
The bottom line is that the anti-vax narrative around VAERS often overstates the data’s implications while ignoring the broader context of vaccine safety monitoring and the overwhelming evidence of benefit over risk. VAERS is a starting point for investigation, not a conclusion.