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QB Drew Lock, NYG (1 Viewer)

JohnnyU said:
I'll take what Jeudy did against SEC dbs over Lock's accomplishments. There is something to be said for visual evidence. 
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You’re suggesting we can hype based off SEC college resumes but we shouldn’t hype based off actual NFL action? 
You had a lot of really good counter arguments available to you, but you’re sticking with that one? 
 

I guess this kind of reasoning, and SEC bias, is what leads one to say Snell will be better than Sanders

 
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Johnny B. Goode said:
You’re suggesting we can hype based off SEC college resumes but we shouldn’t hype based off actual NFL action? 
You had a lot of really good counter arguments available to you, but you’re sticking with that one? 
 
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I believe Lock has more warts than Jeudy.  If you don't I can respect that.

 
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Johnny B. Goode said:
You’re suggesting we can hype based off SEC college resumes but we shouldn’t hype based off actual NFL action? 
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Hype based off actual NFL action? You mean ONE good game against HOU, correct? 

I mean, he only passed for even 200 yards twice last season. The other 200 yard game he had no TD, one INT, and a completion percentage of 45%.

 
BoltBacker said:
Hype based off actual NFL action? You mean ONE good game against HOU, correct? 

I mean, he only passed for even 200 yards twice last season. The other 200 yard game he had no TD, one INT, and a completion percentage of 45%.
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He was a rookie that went 4-1 in his first five games. That is encouraging. The one bad game was a thrashing by KC.
 

An off-season to soak things in and study film and plays. Now add more weapons in pass catching back Gordon, and two rookie WRs in Jeudy and Hamler. Another year for Fant and Sutton to soak things in and get better.

The glass looks more full than empty. A lot more. 

 
Lock has a tremendous opportunity ahead of him with the additions the Broncos have made in the draft.

With Juedy Sutton Fant Hamler Gordon and Lindsey to work with, the skill positions are pretty stacked. Its really up to Lock as far as how good this offense can be.

Lock played better than Flacco in the same offense last season as a rookie. He had a 89.7 QBR in the 5 games he played which was slightly better than Phillip Rivers and Tom Brady last season.16 other QB had better QBR than Lock with more games played, but not bad for his rookie season. 

 
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Johnny B. Goode said:
I like what I’ve seen so far, definitely. I recall JohnnyU saying he was expecting every QB in that class to bust but Haskins, so as far as his QB evaluating is concerned, I don’t give it a lot of weight 
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That doesn’t concern me. My point is I feel like I am looking at a great QB. But I won’t keep trying to change minds. I just want folks to see with both eyes open. 🤓

 
Blackbear said:
That doesn’t concern me. My point is I feel like I am looking at a great QB. But I won’t keep trying to change minds. I just want folks to see with both eyes open. 🤓
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Too many people wrote him off early and are in take Lock (or don’t take Lock in this case). He had a very promising rookie year and had grown tremendously. If that growth arc continues, then we really are potentially seeing a great QB blossoming. He has a competitive edge. He’s got it between the ears. He’s a hard worker. It all shows and he’s got a fantastic supporting cast to boot

 
Johnny B. Goode said:
Too many people wrote him off early and are in take Lock (or don’t take Lock in this case). He had a very promising rookie year and had grown tremendously. If that growth arc continues, then we really are potentially seeing a great QB blossoming. He has a competitive edge. He’s got it between the ears. He’s a hard worker. It all shows and he’s got a fantastic supporting cast to boot
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You make too much sense now. I bet next week we will argue about something! 🤣

 
Blackbear said:
Yes. On second thought you naysayers are right. I’ll adjust my draft board accordingly. 
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*yawn* This is just lazy. You said you trust Elway's judgment when it comes to QBs but history says that maybe you shouldn't. 

Edit: of course that doesn't mean that he can't ever draft a good one. Perhaps it's just laziness on both sides. Maybe I'm just tired. 

Anyways I'm cautiously optimistic in regards to Lock. He definitely is surrounded by a lot of young talent. I don't have any idea where he's going in drafts but I imagine that he can be had pretty cheaply. 

 
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Biabreakable said:
Lock played better than Flacco in the same offense last season as a rookie. He had a 89.7 QBR in the 5 games he played ....
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That's sort of my point. Flacco had a QBR in the mid-80's, Lock had a QBR in the high 80's yet to hear a lot of people tell the story you would think that Lock was so much better than Flacco. I don't know anyone that would be excited to see Flacco take over as their starting QB.

To me it still comes back to the fact Lock played one good game last year. Does anyone remember that Matt Flynn once had nearly 500 yards and 6 TD's in a single game? Billy Volek had almost 500 yards and 4 TD's in a game. 

 
BoltBacker said:
That's sort of my point. Flacco had a QBR in the mid-80's, Lock had a QBR in the high 80's yet to hear a lot of people tell the story you would think that Lock was so much better than Flacco. I don't know anyone that would be excited to see Flacco take over as their starting QB.

To me it still comes back to the fact Lock played one good game last year. Does anyone remember that Matt Flynn once had nearly 500 yards and 6 TD's in a single game? Billy Volek had almost 500 yards and 4 TD's in a game. 
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I don't know if that is a fair stat, Flynn had 5 years in the league at that point, and while he was not a starter, that experience is probably still useful. Also, a QBR in the mid 80's is good, I am guessing you mean QB rating? Rookies almost always are bad, even generational talents like Peyton Manning did not do much as rookies. Kyler Murray who has a much earlier ADP had a similar QB rating, and he was similar in that he had a few big games and quite a few bad games. I am not saying that Lock is going to be a generational talent or as good as Murray, but 5 games as a rookie is really not a lot of experience, and compared to other historical rookie year it seemed pretty good. I think there is a lot of variance in what happens with him, he could be top 5, he could be bottom 5, but he has definite upside as a later pick in either keeper leagues or superflex / 2QB leagues, especially with all of the offensive weapons they have. 

 
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BoltBacker said:
That's sort of my point. Flacco had a QBR in the mid-80's, Lock had a QBR in the high 80's yet to hear a lot of people tell the story you would think that Lock was so much better than Flacco. I don't know anyone that would be excited to see Flacco take over as their starting QB.

To me it still comes back to the fact Lock played one good game last year. Does anyone remember that Matt Flynn once had nearly 500 yards and 6 TD's in a single game? Billy Volek had almost 500 yards and 4 TD's in a game. 
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Lock has also only played 5 games...

One really good (Houston)

One really bad (in a snowstorm against the champs in our house)

One meh (Chargers)

Two fine

 
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huthut said:
I don't know if that is a fair stat, Flynn had 5 years in the league at that point, and while he was not a starter, that experience is probably still useful. Also, a QBR in the mid 80's is good, I am guessing you mean QB rating? Rookies almost always are bad, even generational talents like Peyton Manning did not do much as rookies. Kyler Murray who has a much earlier ADP had a similar QB rating, and he was similar in that he had a few big games and quite a few bad games. I am not saying that Lock is going to be a generational talent or as good as Murray, but 5 games as a rookie is really not a lot of experience, and compared to other historical rookie year it seemed pretty good. I think there is a lot of variance in what happens with him, he could be top 5, he could be bottom 5, but he has definite upside as a later pick in either keeper leagues or superflex / 2QB leagues, especially with all of the offensive weapons they have. 
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I agree with a lot of this. Just to be clear I'm not saying that Lock is a bust. A QBR in the mid 80's is fine. Mason Rudolp(82), Flacco(85), Fitzpatrick(86), Brissett(88), Minshew(91), Keenam(91).... those guys are "fine". The reason I bring up QBR is because the person I was quoting actually brought it up. If the narrative was, "Well Lock only had 5 starts and he really only had one good game but it's early in his career and a lot of rookie QB's have a learning curb their first year in the league. We can't call him a bust at this point,"..... then I would totally agree.

The narrative I keep hearing is "Lock had a promising rookie year, just look in the same situation as Flacco he played SLIGHTLY better". But I also think most people would say Flacco is a broken down version of what he used to be and most people don't think he should be a starting QB in the NFL any longer. So a slightly better version of a broken down Flacco at the end of his career doesn't seem as "promising" as some people are making it out to be. That's all that I am saying.

 
BoltBacker said:
I agree with a lot of this. Just to be clear I'm not saying that Lock is a bust. A QBR in the mid 80's is fine. Mason Rudolp(82), Flacco(85), Fitzpatrick(86), Brissett(88), Minshew(91), Keenam(91).... those guys are "fine". The reason I bring up QBR is because the person I was quoting actually brought it up. If the narrative was, "Well Lock only had 5 starts and he really only had one good game but it's early in his career and a lot of rookie QB's have a learning curb their first year in the league. We can't call him a bust at this point,"..... then I would totally agree.

The narrative I keep hearing is "Lock had a promising rookie year, just look in the same situation as Flacco he played SLIGHTLY better". But I also think most people would say Flacco is a broken down version of what he used to be and most people don't think he should be a starting QB in the NFL any longer. So a slightly better version of a broken down Flacco at the end of his career doesn't seem as "promising" as some people are making it out to be. That's all that I am saying.
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You’re right. He could have had a rookie year like Haskins

 
BoltBacker said:
I agree with a lot of this. Just to be clear I'm not saying that Lock is a bust. A QBR in the mid 80's is fine. Mason Rudolp(82), Flacco(85), Fitzpatrick(86), Brissett(88), Minshew(91), Keenam(91).... those guys are "fine". The reason I bring up QBR is because the person I was quoting actually brought it up. If the narrative was, "Well Lock only had 5 starts and he really only had one good game but it's early in his career and a lot of rookie QB's have a learning curb their first year in the league. We can't call him a bust at this point,"..... then I would totally agree.

The narrative I keep hearing is "Lock had a promising rookie year, just look in the same situation as Flacco he played SLIGHTLY better". But I also think most people would say Flacco is a broken down version of what he used to be and most people don't think he should be a starting QB in the NFL any longer. So a slightly better version of a broken down Flacco at the end of his career doesn't seem as "promising" as some people are making it out to be. That's all that I am saying.
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I am mainly comparing him to other rookies historically. I still feel like you are overestimating how well rookies tend to do. Being below average is above average for rookies when most tend to be terrible. Dan Orlovsky had a better QB rating in 2008 on the 0 win Lions than Stafford did in 2009. Honestly, it is difficult to find rookies who were better than Lock (though this could very well be an artifact of his small sample size of 5 games). Matt Ryan had a similar QB rating as a rookie. Goff, Wentz, Stafford, Newton, Jackson, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, a bunch of others were all similar or lower. Really the only ones I could find (difficult since not all started their rookie year) that were better than him were: Roethlisburger, Mayfield, Watson, Wilson, Prescott. Granted, I did not look at every QB, mainly selected a few bigger names from the last few years.

As mentioned above, his sample size of only 5 games means he could be completely terrible and those games were just statistical flukes due to the small sample size, so I guess my argument is more, rookies QBs are almost universally garbage, so it makes more sense to compare him to other rookies rather than veterans (even if they are on their way out of the league). 

 
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BoltBacker said:
That's sort of my point. Flacco had a QBR in the mid-80's, Lock had a QBR in the high 80's yet to hear a lot of people tell the story you would think that Lock was so much better than Flacco. I don't know anyone that would be excited to see Flacco take over as their starting QB.

To me it still comes back to the fact Lock played one good game last year. Does anyone remember that Matt Flynn once had nearly 500 yards and 6 TD's in a single game? Billy Volek had almost 500 yards and 4 TD's in a game. 
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huthuts following response is pretty much the point I was trying to get at as far as Locks performance so far. That he was a rookie and that in the same offense he was able to outperform a veteran QB in Joe Flacco as a rookie.

5 games is a very small sample size. Not saying we should draw any conclusions about that.

QBR perhaps is not a very good metric to use but it is a way to put everything together, yards, TDs, Ints ect. I see it as a generic type of stat that tries to put all of the things a QB does into one number. Its better than QB wins anyways.

Being curious I did a search on QB rookie seasons with 85 QBR or greater from 2009 

1 Tyrod Taylor 2011 22 6-180 BAL NFL 3 0 1 1 100.00 18 0 0 0.00 0.00 118.7 2 3 66.7% 18.00 18.00 5.00 6.0
2 Ryan Nassib 2014 24 4-110 NYG NFL 4 0 4 5 80.00 60 0 0 0.00 0.00 116.7 2 11 28.6% 12.00 12.00 7.00 15.0
3 Kyle Allen 2018 22 CAR NFL 2 1 20 31 64.52 266 2 0 6.50 0.00 113.1 0 0 0.0% 8.58 9.87 9.87 133.0 1 0 0
4 Taylor Heinicke 2017 24 HOU NFL 1 0 1 1 100.00 10 0 0 0.00 0.00 108.3 1 16 50.0% 10.00 10.00 -3.00 10.0
5 Dak Prescott 2016 23 4-135 DAL NFL 16 16 311 459 67.76 3667 23 4 5.00 0.87 104.9 25 143 5.2% 7.99 8.60 7.86 229.2 13 3 0 5 5
6 Deshaun Watson 2017 22 1-12 HOU NFL 7 6 126 204 61.76 1699 19 8 2 9.30 3.92 103.0 19 116 8.5% 8.33 8.43 7.19 242.7 3 3 0
7 Robert Griffin III 2012 22 1-2 WAS NFL 15 15 258 393 65.65 3200 20 5 5.10 1.27 102.4 30 217 7.1% 8.14 8.59 7.47 213.3 9 6 0 3 2
8 Kirk Cousins 2012 24 4-102 WAS NFL 3 1 33 48 68.75 466 4 3 8.30 6.25 101.6 3 27 5.9% 9.71 8.56 7.53 155.3 1 0 0 1 1
9 Logan Thomas 2014 23 4-120 ARI NFL 2 0 1 9 11.11 81 1 0 11.10 0.00 101.6 2 11 18.2% 9.00 11.22 8.18 40.5
10 Jimmy Garoppolo 2014 23 2-62 NWE NFL 6 0 19 27 70.37 182 1 0 3.70 0.00 101.2 5 36 15.6% 6.74 7.48 5.19 30.3
11 Russell Wilson 2012 24 3-75 SEA NFL 16 16 252 393 64.12 3118 26 10 1 6.60 2.54 100.0 33 203 7.7% 7.93 8.11 7.01 194.9 11 5 0 3 4
12 Jake Locker 2011 23 1-8 TEN NFL 5 0 34 66 51.52 542 4 0 6.10 0.00 99.4 5 37 7.0% 8.21 9.42 8.24 108.4
13 Baker Mayfield 2018 23 1-1 CLE NFL 14 13 310 486 63.79 3725 27 14 2 5.60 2.88 93.7 25 173 4.9% 7.66 7.48 6.77 266.1 6 7 0 3 4
14 Cody Kessler 2016 23 3-93 CLE NFL 9 8 128 195 65.64 1380 6 2 3.10 1.03 92.3 21 140 9.7% 7.08 7.23 5.88 153.3 0 8 0
15 Marcus Mariota 2015 22 1-2 TEN NFL 12 12 230 370 62.16 2818 19 10 2 5.10 2.70 91.5 38 258 9.3% 7.62 7.43 6.10 234.8 3 9 0 2 2
16 Gardner Minshew II 2019 23 6-178 JAX NFL 14 12 285 470 60.64 3271 21 6 4.50 1.28 91.2 33 184 6.6% 6.96 7.28 6.44 233.6 6 6 0 3 3
17 Trevone Boykin 2016 23 SEA NFL 5 0 13 18 72.22 145 1 1 5.60 5.56 91.2 1 5 5.3% 8.06 6.67 6.05 29.0
18 Nate Sudfeld 2017 24 6-187 PHI NFL 1 0 19 23 82.61 134 0 0 0.00 0.00 90.9 3 24 11.5% 5.83 5.83 4.23 134.0
19 Nick Mullens 2018 23 SFO NFL 8 8 176 274 64.23 2277 13 10 2 4.70 3.65 90.8 17 127 5.8% 8.31 7.62 6.74 284.6 3 5 0 0 1
20 Drew Lock 2019 23 2-42 DEN NFL 5 5 100 156 64.10 1020 7 3 4.50 1.92 89.7 5 26 3.1% 6.54 6.57 6.20 204.0 4 1 0 1 2
21 Daniel Jones 2019 22 1-6 NYG NFL 13 12 284 459 61.87 3027 24 12 5.20 2.61 87.7 38 295 7.6% 6.59 6.46 5.38 232.8 3 9 0 1 2
22 Kyler Murray 2019 22 1-1 ARI NFL 16 16 349 542 64.39 3722 20 12 2 3.70 2.21 87.4 48 309 8.1% 6.87 6.61 5.55 232.6 5 10 1 1 2
23 Teddy Bridgewater 2014 22 1-32 MIN NFL 13 12 259 402 64.43 2919 14 12 3.50 2.99 85.2 39 249 8.8% 7.26 6.61 5.46 224.5 6 6 0 3 3
24 Sean Mannion 2015 23 3-89 STL NFL 1 0 6 7 85.71 31 0 0 0.00 0.00 85.1 0 0 0.0% 4.43 4.43 4.43 31.0


Many of the players who make this list do so with a small sample size as well such as Trod Taulor who only played 2 games to earn the highest QBR from the search.

There are quite a few players here who have gone on to have good careers, like Dak, Cousins, Watson ect

Baker Mayfield had perhaps one of the more impressive rookie seasons for a QB. That he did that for the Browns led to a lot of hype about him. I dont think anyone is hyping Lock in the national media the way they were Mayfield.

For the most part I would expect a veteran to play more efficiently than a rookie for the same team with the same supporting cast. So that was really my only point. Perhaps this just means Flacco is really bad (I think he is) but still I thought it was notable as often they cant do that and that is why teams will let them learn from the sidelines instead of throwing them into the fire. 

I have a pretty neutral position of Lock as a QB prospect. I think he could be above average and I think he is in a situation that sets him up for success. I am not sure how far he can take that. I am interested to find out and open to the possibility of him becoming the long term starter for the Broncos for awhile. Thats the positive side of things. On the negative side of things he might not improve and ultimately the Broncos are looking for another QB in 2021. 

I think the weapons are in place for a Denver QB to be good for fantasy in the near future whether that is Lock or someone else, I am not sure yet. 

 
2020 Denver Broncos Training Camp: Day 1 news and notes

Excerpt:

Drew Lock impressions

Drew Lock had a handful of starts in 2019 but 2020 is really his first big test as a starting quarterback in the NFL and today was his first Training Camp practice as the leader of the Denver Broncos. So all eyes were on Lock and he looked fairly well according to most reports. 

Before we get going, he did have two interceptions during today’s practice. These are not the end of the world and should be happening early in camp. He only has a handful of starts under his belt, learning a new offense, it has been a weird offseason and well, it’s just practice, so lets not overreact to these just yet.

According to onlookers, Lock went 16 for 22 during team drills today with one interception by Bryce Callahan. Camp is a growing process so mistakes and camp INT’s will happen, but overall, it sounds like Lock had a solid overall practice.
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