QB Justin Herbert, LAC (1 Viewer)

[zamboni]

I'm bullish on Herbert in 2025. They signed Najee and drafted Hampton in round one, so the run game should be solid. McConkey looks like the real deal, and they just drafted 6'3" 210 Tre Harris in round two, a "Prototypical big-body, physical, strong-framed possession receiver who can win from multiple positions and fill the outside receiver role." (Bleacher Report) They also have Quentin Johnston, who could take another step forward in year three, and Mike Williams, who provides another big target in the red zone.

Going into year two under Harbaugh, Herbert and the boys should be more comfortable and confident in this offensive system. The offense should be able to move the ball with relative ease, and could be one of the more consistent offenses in the league. Herbert's fantasy success won't be tied to pass volume, but to all the pieces coming together. A well-rounded, fundamentally sound offense that moves the ball consistently and provides scoring opportunities. While they may not have a bunch of superstars on offense, a rising tide lifts all boats. With the undeniably talented Herbert under center and a steady Harbaugh at the helm, the Chargers' ship is coming in.

I agree with you, although I’m not as bullish on Herbert from a pure fantasy standpoint. The offense sure seems to be built around the run game: While Herbert may be efficient, the volume seems to be an issue and it’s not like he runs a ton (albeit maybe slightly more than the average QB). We all want Herbert to be that air it out gunslinger from his first few years, but that was in a much different scheme.

I agree that volume and lack of rushing will prevent him from being an elite fantasy QB. Herbert’s fantasy success will come from consistency and efficiency. He won’t have enough blow up games to be top 3, but should be consistently good and have enough big games to be top 5-7 by season’s end. Look at what he did from week 8 and beyond in 2024. I think it’s reasonable to think he builds on that trend in year two of this system.

Perhaps “bullish” was the wrong word, I just think Herbert is going to be a great value in 2025. The kind of QB you can wait on, stack a team around, and still feel great about your QB on a weekly basis.

Fair points, although I think 5-7 may be optimistic. He did have a really nice stretch from week 8 on last year, although I think a lot of that had to do with a lack of running game with Dobbins getting hurt/slowing down and Gus and Vidal just not getting it done as well.

I wonder about that too when evaluating Herbert from week 8 on. It could be exactly what you said, or, it could be Harbaugh realizing what he has in Herbert, Herbert getting more comfortable with the system or maybe all of the above.

Harbaugh definitely wants to run the ball as evidenced by bringing in Najee & Hampton, but he also loves Herbert and just gave him Harris to pair with McConkey. The Chargers may just have a very good, well balanced offense that allows for a strong running game and Herbert to build on what he did from week 8 on.

Balance could definitely what Harbaugh is looking for, but they also play slowly so that limits volume/number of plays. The other factor is the Chargers defense - if they’re halfway decent and avoid a lot of shootouts, that also probably keeps volume down with a ball control approach.

 

[zamboni]

Essentially I see Herbert ending up around QB 10-15 fantasy wise. Hope I’m wrong and he ends up higher, because I’m a big fan, but there are several red fantasy flags IMO.

 

[satch]

I'm bullish on Herbert in 2025. They signed Najee and drafted Hampton in round one, so the run game should be solid. McConkey looks like the real deal, and they just drafted 6'3" 210 Tre Harris in round two, a "Prototypical big-body, physical, strong-framed possession receiver who can win from multiple positions and fill the outside receiver role." (Bleacher Report) They also have Quentin Johnston, who could take another step forward in year three, and Mike Williams, who provides another big target in the red zone.

Going into year two under Harbaugh, Herbert and the boys should be more comfortable and confident in this offensive system. The offense should be able to move the ball with relative ease, and could be one of the more consistent offenses in the league. Herbert's fantasy success won't be tied to pass volume, but to all the pieces coming together. A well-rounded, fundamentally sound offense that moves the ball consistently and provides scoring opportunities. While they may not have a bunch of superstars on offense, a rising tide lifts all boats. With the undeniably talented Herbert under center and a steady Harbaugh at the helm, the Chargers' ship is coming in.

I agree with you, although I’m not as bullish on Herbert from a pure fantasy standpoint. The offense sure seems to be built around the run game: While Herbert may be efficient, the volume seems to be an issue and it’s not like he runs a ton (albeit maybe slightly more than the average QB). We all want Herbert to be that air it out gunslinger from his first few years, but that was in a much different scheme.

I agree that volume and lack of rushing will prevent him from being an elite fantasy QB. Herbert’s fantasy success will come from consistency and efficiency. He won’t have enough blow up games to be top 3, but should be consistently good and have enough big games to be top 5-7 by season’s end. Look at what he did from week 8 and beyond in 2024. I think it’s reasonable to think he builds on that trend in year two of this system.

Perhaps “bullish” was the wrong word, I just think Herbert is going to be a great value in 2025. The kind of QB you can wait on, stack a team around, and still feel great about your QB on a weekly basis.

Fair points, although I think 5-7 may be optimistic. He did have a really nice stretch from week 8 on last year, although I think a lot of that had to do with a lack of running game with Dobbins getting hurt/slowing down and Gus and Vidal just not getting it done as well.

I wonder about that too when evaluating Herbert from week 8 on. It could be exactly what you said, or, it could be Harbaugh realizing what he has in Herbert, Herbert getting more comfortable with the system or maybe all of the above.

Harbaugh definitely wants to run the ball as evidenced by bringing in Najee & Hampton, but he also loves Herbert and just gave him Harris to pair with McConkey. The Chargers may just have a very good, well balanced offense that allows for a strong running game and Herbert to build on what he did from week 8 on.

Balance could definitely what Harbaugh is looking for, but they also play slowly so that limits volume/number of plays. The other factor is the Chargers defense - if they’re halfway decent and avoid a lot of shootouts, that also probably keeps volume down with a ball control approach.

All good points. I suppose I’m anticipating a Belichick-Brady-like ascendance, offensively.

The Patriots dynasty began much like the scenario you describe above. Conservative, ball control, defense-minded. When Belichick realized Brady’s potential and ability, the offensive shifted accordingly. Suddenly, they were an offensive juggernaut.

I could see the same thing playing out in SD. Not necessarily a dynasty, but If Herbert is the special talent many believe him to be, he won’t remain a game manager for long, particularly with a coach who knows how to utilize players to the best of their ability.

Winning 20- 13 is great. Winning 35-13 is even better.

 

[Tau837]

I seriously doubt Herbert will be top 7. Comparing 2025 to 2024 to the extent we can right now:

1. Coaching staff is the same; offensive scheme is the same
2. Upgraded top 2 RBs Edwards and Dobbins to RBs Hampton and Harris
3. Upgraded starting RG from Pipkins to Becton
4. Possibly upgraded starting C but at least upgraded C depth by signing C James
5. Upgraded guard and tackle depth by moving Pipkins to reserve role
6. Upgraded primary X WR players by signing Mike Williams and drafting Tre Harris
7. Possibly improved primary Z WR by moving Johnston from primary X to primary Z, which better suits his skillset
8. Upgraded TE2 from Hurst/Smartt to Conklin
9. Downgraded the DL (for now, with four more draft rounds to go)

Observations:

1. Item 1 suggests the Chargers will again be low in total offensive plays (slow pace), low in pass attempts, and high in rushing attempts.
2. Items 2-5 make it likely that the Chargers will have more RB rushing attempts in 2025.
3. Items 205 also make it likely Herbert's pass protection will be better
4. Items 6-8 provide Herbert with better passing targets... but through what amounts to multiple bargain upgrades, no major upgrades
5. The defense could take a minor step back, which could help Herbert, but it should still be a strong defense

Add all this together, and, as of today, it seems like 2025 will be very similar to 2024. Quality of offensive play should be better, so that could help Herbert's fantasy performance, but I just don't think the volume of passing and QB runs will be enough for top 10, much less top 7.

 

[Tau837]

I suppose I’m anticipating a Belichick-Brady-like ascendance, offensively.

The Patriots dynasty began much like the scenario you describe above. Conservative, ball control, defense-minded. When Belichick realized Brady’s potential and ability, the offensive shifted accordingly. Suddenly, they were an offensive juggernaut.

I could see the same thing playing out in SD. Not necessarily a dynasty, but If Herbert is the special talent many believe him to be, he won’t remain a game manager for long, particularly with a coach who knows how to utilize players to the best of their ability.

You are ignoring the OC. The Patriots offense ascended after they moved from Weiss to McDaniels at OC in 2006. Chargers OC Roman is nothing like McDaniels.

 

[satch]

I suppose I’m anticipating a Belichick-Brady-like ascendance, offensively.

The Patriots dynasty began much like the scenario you describe above. Conservative, ball control, defense-minded. When Belichick realized Brady’s potential and ability, the offensive shifted accordingly. Suddenly, they were an offensive juggernaut.

I could see the same thing playing out in SD. Not necessarily a dynasty, but If Herbert is the special talent many believe him to be, he won’t remain a game manager for long, particularly with a coach who knows how to utilize players to the best of their ability.

You are ignoring the OC. The Patriots offense ascended after they moved from Weiss to McDaniels at OC in 2006. Chargers OC Roman is nothing like McDaniels.

Good point, though I wasn’t trying to make that detailed of a comparison. More generally speaking, if Herbert is a really good QB, and he’s surrounded with good weapons, a good o-line, and good coaches, the offense can only be so conservative for so long.

If the offense fires on all cylinders due to having a good running game and a good passing game, Herbert could put up great numbers in spite of Roman’s approach, or even compel him to modify it.

 

[satch]

If we extrapolate Herbert’s numbers from week 8-18 of the 2024 season, his final numbers would’ve been:

4,650 passing yards
29 TDs
5 INT
282 rush yards

Only Joe Burrow threw for more yards and only 5 QBs threw more than 29 TDs.

 

[TheWinz]

If we extrapolate Herbert’s numbers from week 8-18 of the 2024 season, his final numbers would’ve been:

4,650 passing yards
29 TDs
5 INT
282 rush yards

Only Joe Burrow threw for more yards and only 5 QBs threw more than 29 TDs.

Since you are cherry picking weeks 8-18, did you know Herbert was QB14 during that stretch? Not even a quality fantasy starter.

 

[IHEARTFF]

If we extrapolate Herbert’s numbers from week 8-18 of the 2024 season, his final numbers would’ve been:

4,650 passing yards
29 TDs
5 INT
282 rush yards

Only Joe Burrow threw for more yards and only 5 QBs threw more than 29 TDs.

Since you are cherry picking weeks 8-18, did you know Herbert was QB14 during that stretch? Not even a quality fantasy starter.

That seems off if what he said was true

 

[TheWinz]

If we extrapolate Herbert’s numbers from week 8-18 of the 2024 season, his final numbers would’ve been:

4,650 passing yards
29 TDs
5 INT
282 rush yards

Only Joe Burrow threw for more yards and only 5 QBs threw more than 29 TDs.

Since you are cherry picking weeks 8-18, did you know Herbert was QB14 during that stretch? Not even a quality fantasy starter.

That seems off if what he said was true

Player Historical Stats

Statistics for previous years of the NFL

www.footballguys.com

 

[Tau837]

If we extrapolate Herbert’s numbers from week 8-18 of the 2024 season, his final numbers would’ve been:

4,650 passing yards
29 TDs
5 INT
282 rush yards

Only Joe Burrow threw for more yards and only 5 QBs threw more than 29 TDs.

Since you are cherry picking weeks 8-18, did you know Herbert was QB14 during that stretch? Not even a quality fantasy starter.

That seems off if what he said was true

Nope. From a league of mine with fairly typical QB scoring and run on myfantasyleague.com, where it is easy to filter to weeks 8-18:

# Player PTS AVG
1 Burrow, Joe CIN QB 291.25 29.125
2 Jackson, Lamar BAL QB 282.1 28.21
3 Mariota, Marcus WAS QB 27.65 27.65
4 Allen, Josh BUF QB 273.3 27.33
5 Nix, Bo DEN QB 253.65 25.365
6 Mayfield, Baker TBB QB 252.05 25.205
7 Garoppolo, Jimmy LAR QB 25.2 25.2
8 Daniels, Jayden WAS QB 250.8 25.08
9 Hurts, Jalen PHI QB 224.95 24.994
10 Goff, Jared DET QB 264.45 24.041
11 Winston, Jameis CLE QB 167.2 23.886
12 Milton, Joe NEP QB 23.65 23.65
13 Darnold, Sam MIN QB 257.05 23.368
14 Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB 231.45 23.145
15 Purdy, Brock SFO QB 180.05 22.506
16 Richardson, Anthony IND QB 134.75 22.458
17 Herbert, Justin LAC QB 245.5 22.318

Mariota, Garoppolo, and Milton each played only 1 game in this span, so ignoring them puts Herbert at QB14 in ppg in this span. He was QB9 in total points, but that is because Herbert played every game in this sample, and none of the others in the top 20 did except Goff, Darnold, and Caleb Williams. Goff and Darnold finished ahead of Herbert in total points in this span.

 

[IHEARTFF]

If we extrapolate Herbert’s numbers from week 8-18 of the 2024 season, his final numbers would’ve been:

4,650 passing yards
29 TDs
5 INT
282 rush yards

Only Joe Burrow threw for more yards and only 5 QBs threw more than 29 TDs.

Since you are cherry picking weeks 8-18, did you know Herbert was QB14 during that stretch? Not even a quality fantasy starter.

That seems off if what he said was true

Player Historical Stats

Statistics for previous years of the NFL

www.footballguys.com

Ah PPG, I see, thanks. 3 guys with 1 start had higher ppg. Still that pace is quite good if they’ll sustain it but Hampton and Najee are going to eat.

 

[Ray_T]

If we extrapolate Herbert’s numbers from week 8-18 of the 2024 season, his final numbers would’ve been:

4,650 passing yards
29 TDs
5 INT
282 rush yards

Only Joe Burrow threw for more yards and only 5 QBs threw more than 29 TDs.

and I dont think any who threw his volume of passes would end with only 5 int on the season.

 

[TheWinz]

If we extrapolate Herbert’s numbers from week 8-18 of the 2024 season, his final numbers would’ve been:

4,650 passing yards
29 TDs
5 INT
282 rush yards

Only Joe Burrow threw for more yards and only 5 QBs threw more than 29 TDs.

Since you are cherry picking weeks 8-18, did you know Herbert was QB14 during that stretch? Not even a quality fantasy starter.

That seems off if what he said was true

Player Historical Stats

Statistics for previous years of the NFL

www.footballguys.com

Ah PPG, I see, thanks. 3 guys with 1 start had higher ppg. Still that pace is quite good if they’ll sustain it but Hampton and Najee are going to eat.

 

[TheWinz]

If we extrapolate Herbert’s numbers from week 8-18 of the 2024 season, his final numbers would’ve been:

4,650 passing yards
29 TDs
5 INT
282 rush yards

Only Joe Burrow threw for more yards and only 5 QBs threw more than 29 TDs.

Since you are cherry picking weeks 8-18, did you know Herbert was QB14 during that stretch? Not even a quality fantasy starter.

That seems off if what he said was true

Player Historical Stats

Statistics for previous years of the NFL

www.footballguys.com

Ah PPG, I see, thanks. 3 guys with 1 start had higher ppg. Still that pace is quite good if they’ll sustain it but Hampton and Najee are going to eat.

No, it's not. He was barely a startable fantasy QB in 12-team leagues, even if you cherry-picked his great half-season from weeks 8-18. I am a huge Chargers supporter, but the fact remains - as long as Harbaugh is in town, Herbert is not going to be a top fantasy producer. Trade him now in fantasy while people still think he can be a top 6 fantasy QB, because he will never be that as long as Harbaugh is there. The only way he breaks into the top 6 is if he rushes for double-digit TD's.

 

[IHEARTFF]

If we extrapolate Herbert’s numbers from week 8-18 of the 2024 season, his final numbers would’ve been:

4,650 passing yards
29 TDs
5 INT
282 rush yards

Only Joe Burrow threw for more yards and only 5 QBs threw more than 29 TDs.

Since you are cherry picking weeks 8-18, did you know Herbert was QB14 during that stretch? Not even a quality fantasy starter.

That seems off if what he said was true

Player Historical Stats

Statistics for previous years of the NFL

www.footballguys.com

Ah PPG, I see, thanks. 3 guys with 1 start had higher ppg. Still that pace is quite good if they’ll sustain it but Hampton and Najee are going to eat.

No, it's not. He was barely a startable fantasy QB in 12-team leagues, even if you cherry-picked his great half-season from weeks 8-18. I am a huge Chargers supporter, but the fact remains - as long as Harbaugh is in town, Herbert is not going to be a top fantasy producer. Trade him now in fantasy while people still think he can be a top 6 fantasy QB, because he will never be that as long as Harbaugh is there. The only way he breaks into the top 6 is if he rushes for double-digit TD's.

That 19.2 ppg while not great was better than all but the top 6 full season ppg rates excluding the 2 1-game guys. I think that’s pretty good.

 

[TheWinz]

If we extrapolate Herbert’s numbers from week 8-18 of the 2024 season, his final numbers would’ve been:

4,650 passing yards
29 TDs
5 INT
282 rush yards

Only Joe Burrow threw for more yards and only 5 QBs threw more than 29 TDs.

Since you are cherry picking weeks 8-18, did you know Herbert was QB14 during that stretch? Not even a quality fantasy starter.

That seems off if what he said was true

Player Historical Stats

Statistics for previous years of the NFL

www.footballguys.com

Ah PPG, I see, thanks. 3 guys with 1 start had higher ppg. Still that pace is quite good if they’ll sustain it but Hampton and Najee are going to eat.

No, it's not. He was barely a startable fantasy QB in 12-team leagues, even if you cherry-picked his great half-season from weeks 8-18. I am a huge Chargers supporter, but the fact remains - as long as Harbaugh is in town, Herbert is not going to be a top fantasy producer. Trade him now in fantasy while people still think he can be a top 6 fantasy QB, because he will never be that as long as Harbaugh is there. The only way he breaks into the top 6 is if he rushes for double-digit TD's.

That 19.2 ppg while not great was better than all but the top 6 full season ppg rates excluding the 2 1-game guys. I think that’s pretty good.

No, it wasn't. Here are the top full season QB's who had better PPG rates:

1 - Lamar Jackson
2 - Joe Burrow
3 - Josh Allen
4 - Jalen Hurts
5 - Bo Nix
6 - Jayden Daniels
7 - Baker Mayfield
8 - Patrick Mahomes
9 - Jared Goff
10 - Sam Darnold

All of the above had better PPG rates than Herbert over Herbert's great week 8-18 span. Once again, as a Chargers homer, I love what Harbaugh is doing. But to sit here and think Harbaugh is going to do anything except tank Herbert's fantasy perspective is crazy. He is hell-bent on smash-mouth football and has never had a fantasy-relevant QB in his 21 years as a head coach, whether it be college or pros. Just look at JJ McCarthy's stats from 2022 to 2023. He may very well have been the Harbaugh poster child. He was a 1st rounder who never threw for 200 yards a game in college! A textbook game manager.

 

[IHEARTFF]

If we extrapolate Herbert’s numbers from week 8-18 of the 2024 season, his final numbers would’ve been:

4,650 passing yards
29 TDs
5 INT
282 rush yards

Only Joe Burrow threw for more yards and only 5 QBs threw more than 29 TDs.

Since you are cherry picking weeks 8-18, did you know Herbert was QB14 during that stretch? Not even a quality fantasy starter.

That seems off if what he said was true

Player Historical Stats

Statistics for previous years of the NFL

www.footballguys.com

Ah PPG, I see, thanks. 3 guys with 1 start had higher ppg. Still that pace is quite good if they’ll sustain it but Hampton and Najee are going to eat.

No, it's not. He was barely a startable fantasy QB in 12-team leagues, even if you cherry-picked his great half-season from weeks 8-18. I am a huge Chargers supporter, but the fact remains - as long as Harbaugh is in town, Herbert is not going to be a top fantasy producer. Trade him now in fantasy while people still think he can be a top 6 fantasy QB, because he will never be that as long as Harbaugh is there. The only way he breaks into the top 6 is if he rushes for double-digit TD's.

That 19.2 ppg while not great was better than all but the top 6 full season ppg rates excluding the 2 1-game guys. I think that’s pretty good.

No, it wasn't. Here are the top full season QB's who had better PPG rates:

1 - Lamar Jackson
2 - Joe Burrow
3 - Josh Allen
4 - Jalen Hurts
5 - Bo Nix
6 - Jayden Daniels
7 - Baker Mayfield
8 - Patrick Mahomes
9 - Jared Goff
10 - Sam Darnold

All of the above had better PPG rates than Herbert over Herbert's great week 8-18 span. Once again, as a Chargers homer, I love what Harbaugh is doing. But to sit here and think Harbaugh is going to do anything except tank Herbert's fantasy perspective is crazy. He is hell-bent on smash-mouth football and has never had a fantasy-relevant QB in his 21 years as a head coach, whether it be college or pros. Just look at JJ McCarthy's stats from 2022 to 2023. He may very well have been the Harbaugh poster child. He was a 1st rounder who never threw for 200 yards a game in college! A textbook game manager.

Just using the link you sent above, Herbert was at 19.2 fp/g week 8-18. Bo Nix, for example, was 18.6 f/pg week 1-18.

I show Herbert only behind Lamar, Burrow, Allen, Hurts, Baker, Daniels.

If you want to argue he’s closer to the 6 guys behind him than he is to the top 6 going forward, I can buy that.

 

[TheWinz]

If we extrapolate Herbert’s numbers from week 8-18 of the 2024 season, his final numbers would’ve been:

4,650 passing yards
29 TDs
5 INT
282 rush yards

Only Joe Burrow threw for more yards and only 5 QBs threw more than 29 TDs.

Since you are cherry picking weeks 8-18, did you know Herbert was QB14 during that stretch? Not even a quality fantasy starter.

That seems off if what he said was true

Player Historical Stats

Statistics for previous years of the NFL

www.footballguys.com

Ah PPG, I see, thanks. 3 guys with 1 start had higher ppg. Still that pace is quite good if they’ll sustain it but Hampton and Najee are going to eat.

No, it's not. He was barely a startable fantasy QB in 12-team leagues, even if you cherry-picked his great half-season from weeks 8-18. I am a huge Chargers supporter, but the fact remains - as long as Harbaugh is in town, Herbert is not going to be a top fantasy producer. Trade him now in fantasy while people still think he can be a top 6 fantasy QB, because he will never be that as long as Harbaugh is there. The only way he breaks into the top 6 is if he rushes for double-digit TD's.

That 19.2 ppg while not great was better than all but the top 6 full season ppg rates excluding the 2 1-game guys. I think that’s pretty good.

No, it wasn't. Here are the top full season QB's who had better PPG rates:

1 - Lamar Jackson
2 - Joe Burrow
3 - Josh Allen
4 - Jalen Hurts
5 - Bo Nix
6 - Jayden Daniels
7 - Baker Mayfield
8 - Patrick Mahomes
9 - Jared Goff
10 - Sam Darnold

All of the above had better PPG rates than Herbert over Herbert's great week 8-18 span. Once again, as a Chargers homer, I love what Harbaugh is doing. But to sit here and think Harbaugh is going to do anything except tank Herbert's fantasy perspective is crazy. He is hell-bent on smash-mouth football and has never had a fantasy-relevant QB in his 21 years as a head coach, whether it be college or pros. Just look at JJ McCarthy's stats from 2022 to 2023. He may very well have been the Harbaugh poster child. He was a 1st rounder who never threw for 200 yards a game in college! A textbook game manager.

Just using the link you sent above, Herbert was at 19.2 fp/g week 8-18. Bo Nix, for example, was 18.6 f/pg week 1-18.

I show Herbert only behind Lamar, Burrow, Allen, Hurts, Baker, Daniels.

If you want to argue he’s closer to the 6 guys behind him than he is to the top 6 going forward, I can buy that.

You are doing some awesome cherry-picking, trying to show he was a decent fantasy QB in 2024, but the facts don't lie:

If we are looking at weeks 8-18, Herbert is 19.2 and behind the following QB's:
1) Marcus Mariota - 1 game, 26.0
2) Lamar Jackson - 10 games, 25.2
3) Joe Burrow - 10 games, 24.5
4) Josh Allen - 10 games, 23.8
5) Jalen Hurts - 9 games, 23.0
6) Bo Nix - 10 games, 21.3
7) Jayden Daniels, 10 games, 21.2
8) Joe Milton, 1 game, 21.2
9) Baker Mayfield, 10 games, 20.8
10) Patrick Mahomes, 10 games, 20.0
11) Jimmy Garoppolo, 1 game, 19.9
12) Jared Goff, 11 games, 19.7
13) Sam Darnold, 11 games, 19.4
14) Justin Herbert, 11 games, 19.2

Even if we remove the 3 QB's who played only 1 game, he is still QB11, which we all know is a bottom of the barrel fantasy QB in a 12-team league.

If we are looking at weeks 1-18, Herbert is 16.7 and behind the following QB's:
1) Lamar Jackson, 17 games, 25.8
2) Joe Burrow, 17 games, 22.5
3) Josh Allen, 17 games, 22.4
4) Jalen Hurts, 15 games, 21.7
5) Baker Mayfield, 17 games, 21.6
6) Joe Milton, 1 game, 21.2
7) Jayden Daniels, 17 games, 20.6
8) Jimmy Garoppolo, 1 game, 19.9
9) Jared Goff, 17 games, 18.9
10) Sam Darnold, 17 games, 18.6
11) Bo Nix, 17 games, 18.6
12) Brock Purdy, 15 games, 18.2
13) Kyler Murray, 17 games, 17.8
14) Patrick Mahomes, 16 games, 17.6
15) Justin Herbert, 17 games, 16.7

Even if we remove the 2 QB's who played only 1 game, he is still QB13, which we all know isn't even a starter-level fantasy QB in a 12-team league.

You are secretly trying to compare Herbert's half good season to other QB's full seasons. The problem is, even is his good half season still ranks him a terrible fantasy starter.

 

[satch]

If we extrapolate Herbert’s numbers from week 8-18 of the 2024 season, his final numbers would’ve been:

4,650 passing yards
29 TDs
5 INT
282 rush yards

Only Joe Burrow threw for more yards and only 5 QBs threw more than 29 TDs.

Since you are cherry picking weeks 8-18, did you know Herbert was QB14 during that stretch? Not even a quality fantasy starter.

That seems off if what he said was true

Player Historical Stats

Statistics for previous years of the NFL

www.footballguys.com

Ah PPG, I see, thanks. 3 guys with 1 start had higher ppg. Still that pace is quite good if they’ll sustain it but Hampton and Najee are going to eat.

No, it's not. He was barely a startable fantasy QB in 12-team leagues, even if you cherry-picked his great half-season from weeks 8-18. I am a huge Chargers supporter, but the fact remains - as long as Harbaugh is in town, Herbert is not going to be a top fantasy producer. Trade him now in fantasy while people still think he can be a top 6 fantasy QB, because he will never be that as long as Harbaugh is there. The only way he breaks into the top 6 is if he rushes for double-digit TD's.

That 19.2 ppg while not great was better than all but the top 6 full season ppg rates excluding the 2 1-game guys. I think that’s pretty good.

No, it wasn't. Here are the top full season QB's who had better PPG rates:

1 - Lamar Jackson
2 - Joe Burrow
3 - Josh Allen
4 - Jalen Hurts
5 - Bo Nix
6 - Jayden Daniels
7 - Baker Mayfield
8 - Patrick Mahomes
9 - Jared Goff
10 - Sam Darnold

All of the above had better PPG rates than Herbert over Herbert's great week 8-18 span. Once again, as a Chargers homer, I love what Harbaugh is doing. But to sit here and think Harbaugh is going to do anything except tank Herbert's fantasy perspective is crazy. He is hell-bent on smash-mouth football and has never had a fantasy-relevant QB in his 21 years as a head coach, whether it be college or pros. Just look at JJ McCarthy's stats from 2022 to 2023. He may very well have been the Harbaugh poster child. He was a 1st rounder who never threw for 200 yards a game in college! A textbook game manager.

Just using the link you sent above, Herbert was at 19.2 fp/g week 8-18. Bo Nix, for example, was 18.6 f/pg week 1-18.

I show Herbert only behind Lamar, Burrow, Allen, Hurts, Baker, Daniels.

If you want to argue he’s closer to the 6 guys behind him than he is to the top 6 going forward, I can buy that.

You are doing some awesome cherry-picking, trying to show he was a decent fantasy QB in 2024, but the facts don't lie:

If we are looking at weeks 8-18, Herbert is 19.2 and behind the following QB's:
1) Marcus Mariota - 1 game, 26.0
2) Lamar Jackson - 10 games, 25.2
3) Joe Burrow - 10 games, 24.5
4) Josh Allen - 10 games, 23.8
5) Jalen Hurts - 9 games, 23.0
6) Bo Nix - 10 games, 21.3
7) Jayden Daniels, 10 games, 21.2
8) Joe Milton, 1 game, 21.2
9) Baker Mayfield, 10 games, 20.8
10) Patrick Mahomes, 10 games, 20.0
11) Jimmy Garoppolo, 1 game, 19.9
12) Jared Goff, 11 games, 19.7
13) Sam Darnold, 11 games, 19.4
14) Justin Herbert, 11 games, 19.2

I understand you think accusing others of “cherry picking” is some kind of power move that strengthens your argument, but it really doesn’t. We all understand that, when analyzing statistics, there is often some degree of cherry picking. In this case, it’s been clearly established that we’re looking specifically at weeks 8-18. Nobody is pretending otherwise.

This isn’t a random selection, we’re examining weeks 8-18 because it was the midway point in Herbert’s first season in Harbaugh's system and his fantasy numbers took a significant jump. While we can’t be certain why, it’s fair to suggest that something “clicked.” Therefore, it’s interesting to extrapolate those numbers across a full season in anticipation of 2025. Of course we can’t know for sure what will happen in the future. Much of fantasy football is speculative.

From your list above, which ranks fantasy QBs by PPG from weeks 8-18, we can eliminate the QBs who played 1 game. That leaves:

Lamar Jackson - 25.2
Joe Burrow - 24.5
Josh Allen - 23.8
Jalen Hurts - 23.0
Bo Nix - 21.3
Jayden Daniels - 21.2
Baker Mayfield - 20.8
Patrick Mahomes - 20
Jared Goff - 19.7
Sam Darnold - 19.4
Justin Herbert - 19.2

As we can see, Herbert was a whopping 2.1 PPG behind the #5 QB (Nix) and less than 1 point behind the #8 QB (Mahomes) over this significant span. In other words, one deep TD pass would’ve likely catapulted Herbert into the top 6 QBs from weeks 8-18.

Based on this information, it’s fair for those who believe weeks 8-18 are indicative of a trend that is likely to continue, to suggest that Herbert could finish as a top 6-8 fantasy QB in 2025. Particularly given the Chargers offensive-minded 2025 draft. (https://x.com/danwsports/status/1916248972190245021?s=46)

 

[Tau837]

I understand you think accusing others of “cherry picking” is some kind of power move that strengthens your argument, but it really doesn’t. We all understand that, when analyzing statistics, there is often some degree of cherry picking. In this case, it’s been clearly established that we’re looking specifically at weeks 8-18. Nobody is pretending otherwise.

This isn’t a random selection, we’re examining weeks 8-18 because it was the midway point in Herbert’s first season in Harbaugh's system and his fantasy numbers took a significant jump. While we can’t be certain why, it’s fair to suggest that something “clicked.” Therefore, it’s interesting to extrapolate those numbers across a full season in anticipation of 2025. Of course we can’t know for sure what will happen in the future. Much of fantasy football is speculative.

From your list above, which ranks fantasy QBs by PPG from weeks 8-18, we can eliminate the QBs who played 1 game. That leaves:

Lamar Jackson - 25.2
Joe Burrow - 24.5
Josh Allen - 23.8
Jalen Hurts - 23.0
Bo Nix - 21.3
Jayden Daniels - 21.2
Baker Mayfield - 20.8
Patrick Mahomes - 20
Jared Goff - 19.7
Sam Darnold - 19.4
Justin Herbert - 19.2

As we can see, Herbert was a whopping 2.1 PPG behind the #5 QB (Nix) and less than 1 point behind the #8 QB (Mahomes) over this significant span. In other words, one deep TD pass would’ve likely catapulted Herbert into the top 6 QBs from weeks 8-18.

It feels like cherry picking because there is no logical reason to count week 8 but not weeks 6-7 and no logical reason to count week 18 but ignore his dismal playoff game in week 19. Unless you are attempting to select the best sample for your argument.

Week 8 was not the midpoint of his season. Your sample ignored 6 regular season games and counted 11. It was 35% through his regular season. If you want to use the second half of his season, that would be weeks 11-19.

However, he did hurt his ankle in week 2 and played through it until the bye week in week 5. So looking at a sample that starts in week 6 makes some sense, since he was healthier and also had 4 games and a bye week to adjust to the new offense and his new teammates.

Here is the top 20 QB ppg for weeks 6-19 for all QBs who played more than 3 games during that span:

1 Lamar Jackson BAL 25.50
2 Josh Allen BUF 23.60
3 Joe Burrow CIN 23.30
4 Jalen Hurts PHI 22.40
5 Baker Mayfield TB 21.20
6 Jayden Daniels WAS 20.10
7 Bo Nix DEN 20.10
8 Jared Goff DET 20.00
9 Patrick Mahomes II KC 19.30
10 Brock Purdy SF 19.10
11 Sam Darnold MIN 18.70
12 Justin Herbert LAC 17.50
13 Kyler Murray ARI 17.50
14 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 17.50
15 Anthony Richardson IND 17.20
16 Bryce Young CAR 16.80
17 Russell Wilson PIT 16.70
18 Caleb Williams CHI 15.90
19 Aaron Rodgers NYJ 15.70
20 Derek Carr NO 15.40

Tied for #12-14, Herbert is 1.6 points below #10... and 1.6 points above #18. From a fantasy perspective, he was slightly better than Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young, and Russell Wilson in this sample.

Everyone can use whatever sample they like. IMO this one is more logical than a sample of weeks 8-18.

As a Chargers fan, I sincerely hope that Herbert is a top fantasy QB in 2025, since that implies good things for the Chargers offense. I just don't see it happening for reasons I already posted.

 

[Tau837]

If we extrapolate Herbert’s numbers from week 8-18 of the 2024 season, his final numbers would’ve been:

4,650 passing yards
29 TDs
5 INT
282 rush yards

Only Joe Burrow threw for more yards and only 5 QBs threw more than 29 TDs.

BTW, I realized your extrapolation is wrong here. Weeks 8-18 is 11 games. Scaling to 17 games for these metrics:

• Passing yards: 2706 scales to 4182 -- 5 QBs had more
• Passing TDs: 17 scales to 26 -- 8 QBs had more
• Interceptions: 2 scales to 3
• Rushing yards: 272 scales to 420 -- 9 QBs had more
• Rushinig TDs: 2 scales to 3 -- 10 QBs had more

 

[TheWinz]

I understand you think accusing others of “cherry picking” is some kind of power move that strengthens your argument, but it really doesn’t. We all understand that, when analyzing statistics, there is often some degree of cherry picking. In this case, it’s been clearly established that we’re looking specifically at weeks 8-18. Nobody is pretending otherwise.

This isn’t a random selection, we’re examining weeks 8-18 because it was the midway point in Herbert’s first season in Harbaugh's system and his fantasy numbers took a significant jump. While we can’t be certain why, it’s fair to suggest that something “clicked.” Therefore, it’s interesting to extrapolate those numbers across a full season in anticipation of 2025. Of course we can’t know for sure what will happen in the future. Much of fantasy football is speculative.

From your list above, which ranks fantasy QBs by PPG from weeks 8-18, we can eliminate the QBs who played 1 game. That leaves:

Lamar Jackson - 25.2
Joe Burrow - 24.5
Josh Allen - 23.8
Jalen Hurts - 23.0
Bo Nix - 21.3
Jayden Daniels - 21.2
Baker Mayfield - 20.8
Patrick Mahomes - 20
Jared Goff - 19.7
Sam Darnold - 19.4
Justin Herbert - 19.2

As we can see, Herbert was a whopping 2.1 PPG behind the #5 QB (Nix) and less than 1 point behind the #8 QB (Mahomes) over this significant span. In other words, one deep TD pass would’ve likely catapulted Herbert into the top 6 QBs from weeks 8-18.

Based on this information, it’s fair for those who believe weeks 8-18 are indicative of a trend that is likely to continue, to suggest that Herbert could finish as a top 6-8 fantasy QB in 2025. Particularly given the Chargers offensive-minded 2025 draft. (https://x.com/danwsports/status/1916248972190245021?s=46)

I wasn't accusing you of cherry picking weeks 8 thru 18. I was accusing you of cherry picking when you wrote this:

Just using the link you sent above, Herbert was at 19.2 fp/g week 8-18. Bo Nix, for example, was 18.6 f/pg week 1-18.
I show Herbert only behind Lamar, Burrow, Allen, Hurts, Baker, Daniels.

You compared Herbert's half-season to everyone else's full season to show he could've been QB7. That is textbook cherry picking. The fact remains, even when something clicked from weeks 8 thru 18, he was still QB11 (QB14 if you count the QB's with 1 game, which I didn't), which is a bottom of the barrel fantasy starter in a 12 team league.

Also, you jokingly say he was a "whopping" 2.1 PPG behind Nix, as if that's not alot, but it really is. Take away 2.1 from Herbert and you have QB21 (Jameis Winston).

It's not Herbert's talent I am questioning. It's Harbaugh's leash. In his 21-year career as a head coach, he has never allowed his QB to throw enough to keep pace with the top studs. Even if you only look at weeks 8-18 last year, Herbert was QB18 in terms of attempts per game during that span. Herbert isn't finishing as a top 6 QB if 17 others are throwing more than him, unless he accumulates more rushing stats.

2024 - The Chargers go 11-6 - LAC finishes 28th in pass attempts
2015-2023 - Michigan goes 86-25 - During this stretch, Michigan averages 39.3 runs per game, and 28.3 passes
2011-2014 - The Niners go 44-19-1 - SF is dead last in pass attempts over this span, and never higher than 29th
2007-2010 - Stanford goes 29-21 - During this stretch, Stanford averages 39.5 runs per game, and 28.1 passes
2004-2006 - San Diego goes 29-6

In 21 seasons as HC, Harbaugh is 199-77-1 and never had a season with more pass attempts than rushes. And it's not like he hasn't had good passers. JJ McCarthy was the starter for Michigan in 2022 and 2023, and was under 200 yards passing in both years. By comparison, 68 others were over 200 in 2023 and 77 others did it in 2022. Andrew Luck was his QB at Stanford in 2009 and 2010, and the team still threw less than 40% of the time. He has found success running the ball, and he's not going to change now. The ONLY way Justin Herbert cracks the top 6 this year is with his legs.

 

[satch]

I understand you think accusing others of “cherry picking” is some kind of power move that strengthens your argument, but it really doesn’t. We all understand that, when analyzing statistics, there is often some degree of cherry picking. In this case, it’s been clearly established that we’re looking specifically at weeks 8-18. Nobody is pretending otherwise.

This isn’t a random selection, we’re examining weeks 8-18 because it was the midway point in Herbert’s first season in Harbaugh's system and his fantasy numbers took a significant jump. While we can’t be certain why, it’s fair to suggest that something “clicked.” Therefore, it’s interesting to extrapolate those numbers across a full season in anticipation of 2025. Of course we can’t know for sure what will happen in the future. Much of fantasy football is speculative.

From your list above, which ranks fantasy QBs by PPG from weeks 8-18, we can eliminate the QBs who played 1 game. That leaves:

Lamar Jackson - 25.2
Joe Burrow - 24.5
Josh Allen - 23.8
Jalen Hurts - 23.0
Bo Nix - 21.3
Jayden Daniels - 21.2
Baker Mayfield - 20.8
Patrick Mahomes - 20
Jared Goff - 19.7
Sam Darnold - 19.4
Justin Herbert - 19.2

As we can see, Herbert was a whopping 2.1 PPG behind the #5 QB (Nix) and less than 1 point behind the #8 QB (Mahomes) over this significant span. In other words, one deep TD pass would’ve likely catapulted Herbert into the top 6 QBs from weeks 8-18.

Based on this information, it’s fair for those who believe weeks 8-18 are indicative of a trend that is likely to continue, to suggest that Herbert could finish as a top 6-8 fantasy QB in 2025. Particularly given the Chargers offensive-minded 2025 draft. (https://x.com/danwsports/status/1916248972190245021?s=46)

I wasn't accusing you of cherry picking weeks 8 thru 18. I was accusing you of cherry picking when you wrote this:

Just using the link you sent above, Herbert was at 19.2 fp/g week 8-18. Bo Nix, for example, was 18.6 f/pg week 1-18.
I show Herbert only behind Lamar, Burrow, Allen, Hurts, Baker, Daniels.

You compared Herbert's half-season to everyone else's full season to show he could've been QB7. That is textbook cherry picking. The fact remains, even when something clicked from weeks 8 thru 18, he was still QB11 (QB14 if you count the QB's with 1 game, which I didn't), which is a bottom of the barrel fantasy starter in a 12 team league.

Also, you jokingly say he was a "whopping" 2.1 PPG behind Nix, as if that's not alot, but it really is. Take away 2.1 from Herbert and you have QB21 (Jameis Winston).

It's not Herbert's talent I am questioning. It's Harbaugh's leash. In his 21-year career as a head coach, he has never allowed his QB to throw enough to keep pace with the top studs. Even if you only look at weeks 8-18 last year, Herbert was QB18 in terms of attempts per game during that span. Herbert isn't finishing as a top 6 QB if 17 others are throwing more than him, unless he accumulates more rushing stats.

2024 - The Chargers go 11-6 - LAC finishes 28th in pass attempts
2015-2023 - Michigan goes 86-25 - During this stretch, Michigan averages 39.3 runs per game, and 28.3 passes
2011-2014 - The Niners go 44-19-1 - SF is dead last in pass attempts over this span, and never higher than 29th
2007-2010 - Stanford goes 29-21 - During this stretch, Stanford averages 39.5 runs per game, and 28.1 passes
2004-2006 - San Diego goes 29-6

In 21 seasons as HC, Harbaugh is 199-77-1 and never had a season with more pass attempts than rushes. And it's not like he hasn't had good passers. JJ McCarthy was the starter for Michigan in 2022 and 2023, and was under 200 yards passing in both years. By comparison, 68 others were over 200 in 2023 and 77 others did it in 2022. Andrew Luck was his QB at Stanford in 2009 and 2010, and the team still threw less than 40% of the time. He has found success running the ball, and he's not going to change now. The ONLY way Justin Herbert cracks the top 6 this year is with his legs.

That wasn't me.

 

[satch]

I understand you think accusing others of “cherry picking” is some kind of power move that strengthens your argument, but it really doesn’t. We all understand that, when analyzing statistics, there is often some degree of cherry picking. In this case, it’s been clearly established that we’re looking specifically at weeks 8-18. Nobody is pretending otherwise.

This isn’t a random selection, we’re examining weeks 8-18 because it was the midway point in Herbert’s first season in Harbaugh's system and his fantasy numbers took a significant jump. While we can’t be certain why, it’s fair to suggest that something “clicked.” Therefore, it’s interesting to extrapolate those numbers across a full season in anticipation of 2025. Of course we can’t know for sure what will happen in the future. Much of fantasy football is speculative.

From your list above, which ranks fantasy QBs by PPG from weeks 8-18, we can eliminate the QBs who played 1 game. That leaves:

Lamar Jackson - 25.2
Joe Burrow - 24.5
Josh Allen - 23.8
Jalen Hurts - 23.0
Bo Nix - 21.3
Jayden Daniels - 21.2
Baker Mayfield - 20.8
Patrick Mahomes - 20
Jared Goff - 19.7
Sam Darnold - 19.4
Justin Herbert - 19.2

As we can see, Herbert was a whopping 2.1 PPG behind the #5 QB (Nix) and less than 1 point behind the #8 QB (Mahomes) over this significant span. In other words, one deep TD pass would’ve likely catapulted Herbert into the top 6 QBs from weeks 8-18.

Based on this information, it’s fair for those who believe weeks 8-18 are indicative of a trend that is likely to continue, to suggest that Herbert could finish as a top 6-8 fantasy QB in 2025. Particularly given the Chargers offensive-minded 2025 draft. (https://x.com/danwsports/status/1916248972190245021?s=46)

I wasn't accusing you of cherry picking weeks 8 thru 18. I was accusing you of cherry picking when you wrote this:

Just using the link you sent above, Herbert was at 19.2 fp/g week 8-18. Bo Nix, for example, was 18.6 f/pg week 1-18.
I show Herbert only behind Lamar, Burrow, Allen, Hurts, Baker, Daniels.

You compared Herbert's half-season to everyone else's full season to show he could've been QB7. That is textbook cherry picking. The fact remains, even when something clicked from weeks 8 thru 18, he was still QB11 (QB14 if you count the QB's with 1 game, which I didn't), which is a bottom of the barrel fantasy starter in a 12 team league.

Also, you jokingly say he was a "whopping" 2.1 PPG behind Nix, as if that's not alot, but it really is. Take away 2.1 from Herbert and you have QB21 (Jameis Winston).

It's not Herbert's talent I am questioning. It's Harbaugh's leash. In his 21-year career as a head coach, he has never allowed his QB to throw enough to keep pace with the top studs. Even if you only look at weeks 8-18 last year, Herbert was QB18 in terms of attempts per game during that span. Herbert isn't finishing as a top 6 QB if 17 others are throwing more than him, unless he accumulates more rushing stats.

2024 - The Chargers go 11-6 - LAC finishes 28th in pass attempts
2015-2023 - Michigan goes 86-25 - During this stretch, Michigan averages 39.3 runs per game, and 28.3 passes
2011-2014 - The Niners go 44-19-1 - SF is dead last in pass attempts over this span, and never higher than 29th
2007-2010 - Stanford goes 29-21 - During this stretch, Stanford averages 39.5 runs per game, and 28.1 passes
2004-2006 - San Diego goes 29-6

In 21 seasons as HC, Harbaugh is 199-77-1 and never had a season with more pass attempts than rushes. And it's not like he hasn't had good passers. JJ McCarthy was the starter for Michigan in 2022 and 2023, and was under 200 yards passing in both years. By comparison, 68 others were over 200 in 2023 and 77 others did it in 2022. Andrew Luck was his QB at Stanford in 2009 and 2010, and the team still threw less than 40% of the time. He has found success running the ball, and he's not going to change now. The ONLY way Justin Herbert cracks the top 6 this year is with his legs.

I'll give you credit; you make many valid/interesting points backed by numbers. I could pick a bone or two with some of them, but it's getting kind of silly at this point. My only point is that I believe the way Herbert played from week 8 on in 2024 is indicative of what we might see in 2025. Perhaps even better, as Herbert becomes more comfortable with the system and Harbaugh loosens the leash a bit. Additionally, their draft suggests a bigger focus on offense. Whether all of this means Herbert will finish as QB 5-8, 10-12, 12-15, who knows? I'm comfortable rolling with Herbert as my QB1 and would expect/hope for a QB 6-9 finish. As with every QB, he could underperform or overperform expectations.

 

[TheWinz]

I understand you think accusing others of “cherry picking” is some kind of power move that strengthens your argument, but it really doesn’t. We all understand that, when analyzing statistics, there is often some degree of cherry picking. In this case, it’s been clearly established that we’re looking specifically at weeks 8-18. Nobody is pretending otherwise.

This isn’t a random selection, we’re examining weeks 8-18 because it was the midway point in Herbert’s first season in Harbaugh's system and his fantasy numbers took a significant jump. While we can’t be certain why, it’s fair to suggest that something “clicked.” Therefore, it’s interesting to extrapolate those numbers across a full season in anticipation of 2025. Of course we can’t know for sure what will happen in the future. Much of fantasy football is speculative.

From your list above, which ranks fantasy QBs by PPG from weeks 8-18, we can eliminate the QBs who played 1 game. That leaves:

Lamar Jackson - 25.2
Joe Burrow - 24.5
Josh Allen - 23.8
Jalen Hurts - 23.0
Bo Nix - 21.3
Jayden Daniels - 21.2
Baker Mayfield - 20.8
Patrick Mahomes - 20
Jared Goff - 19.7
Sam Darnold - 19.4
Justin Herbert - 19.2

As we can see, Herbert was a whopping 2.1 PPG behind the #5 QB (Nix) and less than 1 point behind the #8 QB (Mahomes) over this significant span. In other words, one deep TD pass would’ve likely catapulted Herbert into the top 6 QBs from weeks 8-18.

Based on this information, it’s fair for those who believe weeks 8-18 are indicative of a trend that is likely to continue, to suggest that Herbert could finish as a top 6-8 fantasy QB in 2025. Particularly given the Chargers offensive-minded 2025 draft. (https://x.com/danwsports/status/1916248972190245021?s=46)

I wasn't accusing you of cherry picking weeks 8 thru 18. I was accusing you of cherry picking when you wrote this:

Just using the link you sent above, Herbert was at 19.2 fp/g week 8-18. Bo Nix, for example, was 18.6 f/pg week 1-18.
I show Herbert only behind Lamar, Burrow, Allen, Hurts, Baker, Daniels.

You compared Herbert's half-season to everyone else's full season to show he could've been QB7. That is textbook cherry picking. The fact remains, even when something clicked from weeks 8 thru 18, he was still QB11 (QB14 if you count the QB's with 1 game, which I didn't), which is a bottom of the barrel fantasy starter in a 12 team league.

Also, you jokingly say he was a "whopping" 2.1 PPG behind Nix, as if that's not alot, but it really is. Take away 2.1 from Herbert and you have QB21 (Jameis Winston).

It's not Herbert's talent I am questioning. It's Harbaugh's leash. In his 21-year career as a head coach, he has never allowed his QB to throw enough to keep pace with the top studs. Even if you only look at weeks 8-18 last year, Herbert was QB18 in terms of attempts per game during that span. Herbert isn't finishing as a top 6 QB if 17 others are throwing more than him, unless he accumulates more rushing stats.

2024 - The Chargers go 11-6 - LAC finishes 28th in pass attempts
2015-2023 - Michigan goes 86-25 - During this stretch, Michigan averages 39.3 runs per game, and 28.3 passes
2011-2014 - The Niners go 44-19-1 - SF is dead last in pass attempts over this span, and never higher than 29th
2007-2010 - Stanford goes 29-21 - During this stretch, Stanford averages 39.5 runs per game, and 28.1 passes
2004-2006 - San Diego goes 29-6

In 21 seasons as HC, Harbaugh is 199-77-1 and never had a season with more pass attempts than rushes. And it's not like he hasn't had good passers. JJ McCarthy was the starter for Michigan in 2022 and 2023, and was under 200 yards passing in both years. By comparison, 68 others were over 200 in 2023 and 77 others did it in 2022. Andrew Luck was his QB at Stanford in 2009 and 2010, and the team still threw less than 40% of the time. He has found success running the ball, and he's not going to change now. The ONLY way Justin Herbert cracks the top 6 this year is with his legs.

That wasn't me.

OMG, you are right. I am sorry. It was @IHEARTFF

 

[IHEARTFF]

Yes I cherry picked by comparing his ppg the last 11 games to others full season ppgs to see how his 11 game pace would stack up. Seemed worth a comparison to me.

 

[TheWinz]

I'll give you credit; you make many valid/interesting points backed by numbers. I could pick a bone or two with some of them, but it's getting kind of silly at this point. My only point is that I believe the way Herbert played from week 8 on in 2024 is indicative of what we might see in 2025. Perhaps even better, as Herbert becomes more comfortable with the system and Harbaugh loosens the leash a bit. Additionally, their draft suggests a bigger focus on offense. Whether all of this means Herbert will finish as QB 5-8, 10-12, 12-15, who knows? I'm comfortable rolling with Herbert as my QB1 and would expect/hope for a QB 6-9 finish. As with every QB, he could underperform or overperform expectations.

As a Chargers homer, I hope you are right.
Fun fact - in Herbert's first 4 seasons, he started 62 games and threw at least 40 passes 28 times (45.2%). Last year, he played all 17 games and never threw 40 times.

 

[Faust]

Can Chargers still fill existing holes on offensive line?

 

[joey]

It's interesting because he is slowly falling behind Philip Rivers in the ranks of great Chargers Quarterbacks. A few years ago you'd of had this guy pined for greatness, now he's likely to be an ancillary piece of a run only offense.

I miss Big Phil. That's a guy who was really overshadowed by his contemporaries.

This I disagree with personally.
While there’s reason for debate how much he’s worth as a fantasy QB. I think it’s already set in stone that this dude is a fantastic Real World NFL QB who every franchise save 6 or 7 would jump at the chance of having him as their QB.

 

[satch]

Jim Harbaugh srecently woke up in the middle of the night thinking "I have to get Justin Herbert to the Hall of Fame."

https://x.com/richeisenshow/status/1918352760933880145?s=46

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Jim Harbaugh srecently woke up in the middle of the night thinking "I have to get Justin Herbert to the Hall of Fame."

https://x.com/richeisenshow/status/1918352760933880145?s=46

Love it. LFG!

 

[TheWinz]

It's interesting because he is slowly falling behind Philip Rivers in the ranks of great Chargers Quarterbacks. A few years ago you'd of had this guy pined for greatness, now he's likely to be an ancillary piece of a run only offense.

I miss Big Phil. That's a guy who was really overshadowed by his contemporaries.

This I disagree with personally.
While there’s reason for debate how much he’s worth as a fantasy QB. I think it’s already set in stone that this dude is a fantastic Real World NFL QB who every franchise save 6 or 7 would jump at the chance of having him as their QB.

PPG rankings (QB's who played at least 8 games)

Herbert
2024 - QB13
2023 - QB11
2022 - QB14
2021 - QB3
2020 - QB8

Rivers
2019 - QB25
2018 - QB20
2017 - QB10
2016 - QB18
2015 - QB15
2014 - QB14
2013 - QB7
2012 - QB21
2011 - QB10
2010 - QB5
2009 - QB8
2008 - QB3
2007 - QB20
2006 - QB11

 

[joey]

It's interesting because he is slowly falling behind Philip Rivers in the ranks of great Chargers Quarterbacks. A few years ago you'd of had this guy pined for greatness, now he's likely to be an ancillary piece of a run only offense.

I miss Big Phil. That's a guy who was really overshadowed by his contemporaries.

This I disagree with personally.
While there’s reason for debate how much he’s worth as a fantasy QB. I think it’s already set in stone that this dude is a fantastic Real World NFL QB who every franchise save 6 or 7 would jump at the chance of having him as their QB.

PPG rankings (QB's who played at least 8 games)

Herbert
2024 - QB13
2023 - QB11
2022 - QB14
2021 - QB3
2020 - QB8

Rivers
2019 - QB25
2018 - QB20
2017 - QB10
2016 - QB18
2015 - QB15
2014 - QB14
2013 - QB7
2012 - QB21
2011 - QB10
2010 - QB5
2009 - QB8
2008 - QB3
2007 - QB20
2006 - QB11

so he's right on schedule, yes?

 

[TheWinz]

so he's right on schedule, yes?

Now let's add another stat...

PPG rankings (QB's who played at least 8 games)

Herbert
2024 - QB13 - QB21 in pass attempts per game = +8
2023 - QB11 - QB21 in pass attempts per game = +10
2022 - QB14 - QB2 in pass attempts per game = -12
2021 - QB3 - QB2 in pass attempts per game = -1
2020 - QB8 - QB2 in pass attempts per game = -6


Rivers
2019 - QB25 - QB9 in pass attempts per game = -16
2018 - QB20 - QB24 in pass attempts per game = +4
2017 - QB10 - QB4 in pass attempts per game = -6
2016 - QB18 - QB14 in pass attempts per game = -4
2015 - QB15 - QB2 in pass attempts per game = -13
2014 - QB14 - QB14 in pass attempts per game = even
2013 - QB7 - QB17 in pass attempts per game = +10
2012 - QB21 - QB19 in pass attempts per game = -2
2011 - QB10 - QB6 in pass attempts per game = -4
2010 - QB5 - QB11 in pass attempts per game = +6
2009 - QB8 - QB23 in pass attempts per game = +15
2008 - QB3 - QB18 in pass attempts per game = +15
2007 - QB20 - QB20 in pass attempts per game = even
2006 - QB11 - QB20 in pass attempts per game = +9

Fantasy-wise, I would say Rivers' first 5 years were better than Herbert's.

 

[joey]

so he's right on schedule, yes?

Now let's add another stat...

PPG rankings (QB's who played at least 8 games)

Herbert
2024 - QB13 - QB21 in pass attempts per game = +8
2023 - QB11 - QB21 in pass attempts per game = +10
2022 - QB14 - QB2 in pass attempts per game = -12
2021 - QB3 - QB2 in pass attempts per game = -1
2020 - QB8 - QB2 in pass attempts per game = -6


Rivers
2019 - QB25 - QB9 in pass attempts per game = -16
2018 - QB20 - QB24 in pass attempts per game = +4
2017 - QB10 - QB4 in pass attempts per game = -6
2016 - QB18 - QB14 in pass attempts per game = -4
2015 - QB15 - QB2 in pass attempts per game = -13
2014 - QB14 - QB14 in pass attempts per game = even
2013 - QB7 - QB17 in pass attempts per game = +10
2012 - QB21 - QB19 in pass attempts per game = -2
2011 - QB10 - QB6 in pass attempts per game = -4
2010 - QB5 - QB11 in pass attempts per game = +6
2009 - QB8 - QB23 in pass attempts per game = +15
2008 - QB3 - QB18 in pass attempts per game = +15
2007 - QB20 - QB20 in pass attempts per game = even
2006 - QB11 - QB20 in pass attempts per game = +9

Fantasy-wise, I would say Rivers' first 5 years were better than Herbert's.

The Chargers win one superbowl...Heck, even make it to a super bowl, and he might overtake Rivers.

Granted, this is stated by a Raiders fan with apathy at best for the Chargers, so I'm just saying this from an outsider, overall football pov. Not from what the actual fans of the team would say.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Fantasy-wise, I would say Rivers' first 5 years were better than Herbert's.

I still think Herbert is a better QB.

 

[TheWinz]

Fantasy-wise, I would say Rivers' first 5 years were better than Herbert's.

I still think Herbert is a better QB.

I always considered Rivers a bit of stat compiler who seemed to find a way to lose rather than win. But a closer look at the stats and I see:
- He had a 56% winning percentage
- Of his 14 yrs as starter for the Chargers, he was top 10 in pass attempts only 4 times, but managed 6 top 10 PPG finishes

Numbers suggest Rivers was better than I give him credit for. I think I just hold a bit of a grudge because we kept him and traded Drew Brees.

 

[Tau837]

Fantasy-wise, I would say Rivers' first 5 years were better than Herbert's.

I still think Herbert is a better QB.

I always considered Rivers a bit of stat compiler who seemed to find a way to lose rather than win. But a closer look at the stats and I see:
- He had a 56% winning percentage
- Of his 14 yrs as starter for the Chargers, he was top 10 in pass attempts only 4 times, but managed 6 top 10 PPG finishes

Numbers suggest Rivers was better than I give him credit for. I think I just hold a bit of a grudge because we kept him and traded Drew Brees.

IMO Rivers is better than Brees. I know many people will laugh at this. The difference is that Brees moved on to play for Payton, which was a perfect match.

Rivers played behind terrible OLs and with poor supporting casts. Worse on both fronts than Herbert so far, and it's not close.

Rivers was arguably the best QB in the NFL in 2008-2010, or at minimum one of the 2-3 best, even though the media didn't recognize it. Herbert has not achieved that level of performance yet. I hope he does at some point.

 

[TheWinz]

Rivers played behind terrible OLs and with poor supporting casts. Worse on both fronts than Herbert so far, and it's not close.

Antonio Gates would disagree

 

[Tau837]

Rivers played behind terrible OLs and with poor supporting casts. Worse on both fronts than Herbert so far, and it's not close.

Antonio Gates would disagree

That is ridiculous. Rivers' OLs were horrible. He had LT for a few years and Gates for a few more years. And?

This is just convenient thoughtless commentary. I am pretty sure you are a Chargers fan. Put some actual thought into this.

 

[TheWinz]

Rivers played behind terrible OLs and with poor supporting casts. Worse on both fronts than Herbert so far, and it's not close.

Antonio Gates would disagree

That is ridiculous. Rivers' OLs were horrible. He had LT for a few years and Gates for a few more years. And?

A few more years? The Rivers/Gates tandem is 3rd all-time behind only Manning/Harrison and Brady/Gronk with 89 TD passes. I was just pointing out that Rivers had a HOF TE for basically his entire time with the Chargers.

Also, LaDainian Tomlinson wants to disagree, because he had what could be considered the best ever fantasy season by a RB with Rivers at the helm.

 

[Tau837]

Rivers played behind terrible OLs and with poor supporting casts. Worse on both fronts than Herbert so far, and it's not close.

Antonio Gates would disagree

That is ridiculous. Rivers' OLs were horrible. He had LT for a few years and Gates for a few more years. And?

A few more years? The Rivers/Gates tandem is 3rd all-time behind only Manning/Harrison and Brady/Gronk with 89 TD passes. I was just pointing out that Rivers had a HOF TE for basically his entire time with the Chargers.

Also, LaDainian Tomlinson wants to disagree, because he had what could be considered the best ever fantasy season by a RB with Rivers at the helm.

Tomlinson was a Charger for 4 of Rivers' 14 seasons as the starting QB for the Chargers. Tomlinson wasn't great for all of those 4 seasons.

Gates was the one guy Rivers had for most of his career. Rivers did not consistently play with great WRs.

But that doesn't change that Rivers played behind horrific OLs for the vast majority of his career.

Plus, Rivers played for generally lower quality coaching staffs for almost all of his career... at least compared to other QBs who warrant HOF consideration.

 

[TheWinz]

Rivers played behind terrible OLs and with poor supporting casts. Worse on both fronts than Herbert so far, and it's not close.

Antonio Gates would disagree

That is ridiculous. Rivers' OLs were horrible. He had LT for a few years and Gates for a few more years. And?

A few more years? The Rivers/Gates tandem is 3rd all-time behind only Manning/Harrison and Brady/Gronk with 89 TD passes. I was just pointing out that Rivers had a HOF TE for basically his entire time with the Chargers.

Also, LaDainian Tomlinson wants to disagree, because he had what could be considered the best ever fantasy season by a RB with Rivers at the helm.

Tomlinson was a Charger for 4 of Rivers' 14 seasons as the starting QB for the Chargers. Tomlinson wasn't great for all of those 4 seasons.

Gates was the one guy Rivers had for most of his career. Rivers did not consistently play with great WRs.

But that doesn't change that Rivers played behind horrific OLs for the vast majority of his career.

Plus, Rivers played for generally lower quality coaching staffs for almost all of his career... at least compared to other QBs who warrant HOF consideration.

While I consistently agree with you about the Chargers, come on man!

RB - Tomlinson finished RB1 in 2006, RB2 in 2007, RB6 in 2008, Mathews finished RB7 in 2011, Woodhead finished finished RB12 in 2013, Woodhead finished RB3 in 2015, Gordon finished RB7 in 2016, Gordon finished RB5 in 2017, Gordon finished RB8 in 2018, Ekeler finished RB4 in 2019
- Of Rivers' 14 seasons as Chargers starting QB, he had a RB1 ten times (71%) - Of Herbert's 5 seasons as Chargers starting QB, he had a RB1 two times (40%)
- Anyone trying to say Herbert had better RB's than Rivers is sorely mistaken

WR - The best WR they both had was clearly Keenan Allen. Rivers had him for 7 years and Herbert had him for 4 years. Let's call that a wash.
- Most of the time the next man up was either Vincent Jackson or Mike Williams - very similar players but one has 9K yards and the other has 5K
- I would say their WR's are quite close in comparison

TE - Gates vs the scrubs
- Let's not debate this.

I do agree Rivers played for garbage coaching staffs, but so did Herbert until last year.

 

[Faust]

Jim Harbaugh's goal with Chargers: 'I got to get Justin Herbert to the Hall of Fame'

 

[Tau837]

Rivers played behind terrible OLs and with poor supporting casts. Worse on both fronts than Herbert so far, and it's not close.

Antonio Gates would disagree

That is ridiculous. Rivers' OLs were horrible. He had LT for a few years and Gates for a few more years. And?

A few more years? The Rivers/Gates tandem is 3rd all-time behind only Manning/Harrison and Brady/Gronk with 89 TD passes. I was just pointing out that Rivers had a HOF TE for basically his entire time with the Chargers.

Also, LaDainian Tomlinson wants to disagree, because he had what could be considered the best ever fantasy season by a RB with Rivers at the helm.

Tomlinson was a Charger for 4 of Rivers' 14 seasons as the starting QB for the Chargers. Tomlinson wasn't great for all of those 4 seasons.

Gates was the one guy Rivers had for most of his career. Rivers did not consistently play with great WRs.

But that doesn't change that Rivers played behind horrific OLs for the vast majority of his career.

Plus, Rivers played for generally lower quality coaching staffs for almost all of his career... at least compared to other QBs who warrant HOF consideration.

While I consistently agree with you about the Chargers, come on man!

RB - Tomlinson finished RB1 in 2006, RB2 in 2007, RB6 in 2008, Mathews finished RB7 in 2011, Woodhead finished finished RB12 in 2013, Woodhead finished RB3 in 2015, Gordon finished RB7 in 2016, Gordon finished RB5 in 2017, Gordon finished RB8 in 2018, Ekeler finished RB4 in 2019
- Of Rivers' 14 seasons as Chargers starting QB, he had a RB1 ten times (71%) - Of Herbert's 5 seasons as Chargers starting QB, he had a RB1 two times (40%)
- Anyone trying to say Herbert had better RB's than Rivers is sorely mistaken

WR - The best WR they both had was clearly Keenan Allen. Rivers had him for 7 years and Herbert had him for 4 years. Let's call that a wash.
- Most of the time the next man up was either Vincent Jackson or Mike Williams - very similar players but one has 9K yards and the other has 5K
- I would say their WR's are quite close in comparison

TE - Gates vs the scrubs
- Let's not debate this.

I do agree Rivers played for garbage coaching staffs, but so did Herbert until last year.

Rivers played behind terrible OLs. I have noted that multiple times and you have consistently ignored it. That is half of the players on the field with Rivers.

For RBs, I don't really care about fantasy rankings. Rivers played with one great RB for 3 years, Tomlinson 2006-2008. Ekeler's peak was with Herbert, not Rivers. Mathews, Woodhead, and Gordon all had the best years of their careers with Rivers. None of them was special; none of them performed particularly well on other teams without Rivers. Rivers elevated their play because he was so good at passing to his RBs, something Herbert is not as good at.

Allen was great. No argument. Rivers never played with another great WR, but a lot of WRs had the best years of their careers with him. He elevated them.

Gates was obviously great. No argument.

As a starting QB, Rivers played 15 seasons. He had a quality head coach in exactly 1 of them -- Marty in 2006. Herbert hasn't had a great group yet, but he already has matched Rivers there and is obviously going to surpass him this year.

We didn't even comment here on defense and special teams, but it is clear to me that Herbert has had better support from those units than Rivers got.

I stand by my take.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

Unpopular opinion: They're both great but not elite and it doesn't matter which one is slightly better or worse.

I wasn't playing dynasty when Herbert was coming out but I did pick him up off the ww in redraft his rookie year and he was awesome for me. I've been on the bandwagon ever since and acquired him for Kyler in one of my dynasty leagues. Never had the same personal attachment to Rivers other than being a Pats fan (not involved in fantasy football) and never thought of Rivers as someone that was especially intimidating (easy to have such opinions when Brady's your guy). I think Herbert's fantasy football appeal has transitioned from him being a weapon on the ground to being a gunslinger throwing bbs all over the field. However it seems like he's been playing through injuries a fair bit in the past couple of years and surrounded by mediocre talent and saddled with a conservative run based system.

The next chapter hasn't been written yet but he's got the (personal) ingredients to ascend to the next tier above Phillips (stays calm, arm is crazy good, could still scoot if he wants to). However scheme and surrounding talent will probably keep him to more modest numbers. Winning postseason games could still help his case. I believe he'll have the opportunity. Whether or not he can cash in, I'll be tuned in to find out. So far the results are not great.