QBs at 1.1 - Are they worth it? (1 Viewer)

[Despyzer]

They looked at the fifteen QBs drafted at 1.1 in the modern era, starting with Terry Bradshaw, and asked "How many of these guys have actually produced at the level that you would expect a #1 overall pick to perform?

Here's how they broke it down:



Terry Bradshaw

Jim Plunkett

John Elway

Troy Aikman

Peyton Manning

Carson Palmer



Steve Bartkowski

Vinny Testeverde

Jeff George

Drew Bledsoe

Tim Couch

Michael Vick

David Carr



Eli Manning

Alex Smith

They were a bit torn on Testeverde and Bledsoe. Discuss.

 

[Jason Wood]

Hmmm,

First of all, Mike & Mike should be embarrassed at their lack of knowledge about NFL History.

How can Jim Plunkett be considered worthy when he didn't win a Super Bowl until his 3rd NFL team? Plunkett didn't get into the playoffs until his 9th NFL season (1980).

 

[Despyzer]

How can Jim Plunkett be considered worthy when he didn't win a Super Bowl until his 3rd NFL team? Plunkett didn't get into the playoffs until his 9th NFL season (1980).

I'd agree with you.

 

[pigskin pimp]

How can Jim Plunkett be considered worthy when he didn't win a Super Bowl until his 3rd NFL team? Plunkett didn't get into the playoffs until his 9th NFL season (1980).

I'd agree with you.

By M & M's thought process on Plunkett, then shouldn't Vick be considered at least an undecided as of now?

 

[Jason Wood]

Bledsoe was, BY FAR, a better pick than Plunkett by the way.

Bledsoe made three Pro Bowls in his first five seasons, including his 4th season when the Pats improbably went to the Super Bowl.

 

[Despyzer]

How can Jim Plunkett be considered worthy when he didn't win a Super Bowl until his 3rd NFL team? Plunkett didn't get into the playoffs until his 9th NFL season (1980).

I'd agree with you.

By M & M's thought process on Plunkett, then shouldn't Vick be considered at least an undecided as of now?

They said they had a hard time putting him in a category, but for now he hasn't proven to be worth it. They weren't just looking at the first six years of a player's career though. We have the benefit of seeing all of Plunkett, but we have only seen about half of Vick's career (if he doesn't land in jail soon).

 

[Chase Stuart]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=274

Matt Schaub: Superstar was traded to Houston the other day for a price that I’d call high but not extravagant. That means we can expect to see David Carr on the move soon, with Minnesota, Miami, and Oakland being mentioned as possible destinations.

Everyone has draft on the brain right now and, as seems to be the case every year, there are a couple of quarterbacks who are being considered as potential first overall picks and who, barring something unforeseen, should go in the top ten. Both have their strong points, but both also have significant questions and, as usual, we’re starting to hear the chorus of “drafting a quarterback with a top 10 pick is too expensive and too risky” from media and fans.

The three teams mentioned above — the Vikings, Dolphins, and Raiders — could conceivably be in position to draft either JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn this year. Or they could trade for David Carr on the cheap. Until a few days ago, they could also have traded for Matt Schaub.

I don’t think anyone denies that your chances of winning a Super Bowl are drastically improved if you have a good quarterback. But where people differ is on how you go about acquiring one. If you’re the Oakland Raiders, where are you most likely to find the quarterback on your next Super Bowl team?

* You could draft JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn - the risks here are well-documented: you’re paying a lot of money for someone who could end up playing like Ryan Leaf or Akili Smith. What might even be worse than that is if you end up with a Joey Harrington or a David Carr (or an Alex Smith? or a Michael Vick???) who doesn’t ever play particularly well, but shows enough flashes of competence that you end up hanging onto him for several years. On the other hand, lots of first overall picks do end up winning Super Bowls with the team that drafted them.

* You could have traded for Matt Schaub - this gets you someone who is slightly more proven than Russell or Quinn. And you pay slightly less money. But Rob Johnson and Scott Mitchell remind us that this strategy isn’t bust-proof either. And it seems like your upside is more Hasselbeck/Delhomme/Brunell than Palmer/Aikman/Manning.

* You can trade for David Carr or some other relatively young and seemingly talented quarterback who might be resuscitated by a change of scenery. Pacifist Viking has been calling David Carr the next Jim Plunkett for months now. This is a cheap strategy but, Plunkett notwithstanding, it has a low probability of netting you the starter on your next Super Bowl contender.

* You can try to draft your own Matt Schaub in the middle rounds - the problem here is that, even if you do find that gem, you’re looking at a minimum of two years before he’s even your starter and you get to see what he’s really capable of. For the record, here are the quarterbacks drafted in the 3rd and 4th round between 2000 and 2004: Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman, Chris Weinke, Sage Rosenfels, Jesse Palmer, Josh McCown, David Garrard, Rohan Davey, Dave Ragone, Chris Simms, Seneca Wallace, Matt Schaub, Luke McCown. This strategy could leave you spinning your wheels for a long time.

So what’s it going to be? I fully understand the reluctance to hitch your wagon to JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn. I’m just not sure I see a better option.

 

[Despyzer]

Bledsoe was, BY FAR, a better pick than Plunkett by the way.Bledsoe made three Pro Bowls in his first five seasons, including his 4th season when the Pats improbably went to the Super Bowl.

Once again, I'd agree with you.But even if you flipflop those two, the question remains: Have QBs proven to be worth the 1.1?

 

[massraider]

Bledsoe was, BY FAR, a better pick than Plunkett by the way.Bledsoe made three Pro Bowls in his first five seasons, including his 4th season when the Pats improbably went to the Super Bowl.

I would love to have seen Bledsoe running the QB option offense that Chuck Fairbanks had in New England, circa 1972.Chuck Fairbanks tried to kill Plunkett, Al Davis found him cowering in San Francisco, gave him some blocking, and presto! Two-time Super Bowl champ.

 

[Jason Wood]

How can Jim Plunkett be considered worthy when he didn't win a Super Bowl until his 3rd NFL team? Plunkett didn't get into the playoffs until his 9th NFL season (1980).

I'd agree with you.

By M & M's thought process on Plunkett, then shouldn't Vick be considered at least an undecided as of now?

They said they had a hard time putting him in a category, but for now he hasn't proven to be worth it. They weren't just looking at the first six years of a player's career though. We have the benefit of seeing all of Plunkett, but we have only seen about half of Vick's career (if he doesn't land in jail soon).

Mike & Mike do this every year, and every year they usually embarrass themselves with the exercise. I like the guys, but NFL historical context isn't their strong suit.

 

[massraider]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/?p=274

Matt Schaub: Superstar was traded to Houston the other day for a price that I’d call high but not extravagant. That means we can expect to see David Carr on the move soon, with Minnesota, Miami, and Oakland being mentioned as possible destinations.

Everyone has draft on the brain right now and, as seems to be the case every year, there are a couple of quarterbacks who are being considered as potential first overall picks and who, barring something unforeseen, should go in the top ten. Both have their strong points, but both also have significant questions and, as usual, we’re starting to hear the chorus of “drafting a quarterback with a top 10 pick is too expensive and too risky” from media and fans.

The three teams mentioned above — the Vikings, Dolphins, and Raiders — could conceivably be in position to draft either JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn this year. Or they could trade for David Carr on the cheap. Until a few days ago, they could also have traded for Matt Schaub.

I don’t think anyone denies that your chances of winning a Super Bowl are drastically improved if you have a good quarterback. But where people differ is on how you go about acquiring one. If you’re the Oakland Raiders, where are you most likely to find the quarterback on your next Super Bowl team?

* You could draft JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn - the risks here are well-documented: you’re paying a lot of money for someone who could end up playing like Ryan Leaf or Akili Smith. What might even be worse than that is if you end up with a Joey Harrington or a David Carr (or an Alex Smith? or a Michael Vick???) who doesn’t ever play particularly well, but shows enough flashes of competence that you end up hanging onto him for several years. On the other hand, lots of first overall picks do end up winning Super Bowls with the team that drafted them.

* You could have traded for Matt Schaub - this gets you someone who is slightly more proven than Russell or Quinn. And you pay slightly less money. But Rob Johnson and Scott Mitchell remind us that this strategy isn’t bust-proof either. And it seems like your upside is more Hasselbeck/Delhomme/Brunell than Palmer/Aikman/Manning.

* You can trade for David Carr or some other relatively young and seemingly talented quarterback who might be resuscitated by a change of scenery. Pacifist Viking has been calling David Carr the next Jim Plunkett for months now. This is a cheap strategy but, Plunkett notwithstanding, it has a low probability of netting you the starter on your next Super Bowl contender.

* You can try to draft your own Matt Schaub in the middle rounds - the problem here is that, even if you do find that gem, you’re looking at a minimum of two years before he’s even your starter and you get to see what he’s really capable of. For the record, here are the quarterbacks drafted in the 3rd and 4th round between 2000 and 2004: Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman, Chris Weinke, Sage Rosenfels, Jesse Palmer, Josh McCown, David Garrard, Rohan Davey, Dave Ragone, Chris Simms, Seneca Wallace, Matt Schaub, Luke McCown. This strategy could leave you spinning your wheels for a long time.

So what’s it going to be? I fully understand the reluctance to hitch your wagon to JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn. I’m just not sure I see a better option.

Bingo. No matter what option you throw out there for QB, it's not a proven better one than drafting your guy.You just gotta draft the right guy, and give him some help.

 

[dparker713]

Frankly, its still too early to call Carson Palmer worth it. One playoff season isn't exactly what they drafted him for.

My list

Worth it:

Terry Bradshaw

John Elway

Troy Aikman

Peyton Manning

Not:

Steve Bartkowski

Vinny Testeverde

Jeff George

Drew Bledsoe

Couch

Carr

Plunkett

Undecided:

Eli

Alex Smith

Vick

Palmer

You could put Carr in the undecided category, but I've seen enough watching the Texans games to say he wont be good anywhere.

 

[renesauz]

Along those same lines, I have a hard time calling Testaverde, Bledsoe, and Vick "busts". They had (or are having) productive careers. Carr is still in the shrug category...he'll get another chance.

QB's can't be labeled "busts" the way you could a RB or another position. It's the toughest position on the field, and there are far fewer QB's out there capable of being all-pros then at any other position. There are also more Ryan Leaf/Tim Couch high QB's picked then at RB. IN other words, a QB able to start for 7-15 years in the NFL is not a bust, even if the #1 pick, even if he never makes a single pro-bowl.

To be more fair, those players should be ranked as:

Bradshaw, Manning, Aikman, Palmer, Elway

Plunkett, Testaverde, Bledsoe, Vick

:( George

Couch, Bartkowski

E. Manning, Smith, Carr

I personally think E. Manning will end up in the :( category, Smith in the category, and I'm still torn on Carr.

is obviously a winner worth the pick.

might not be worth the #1 pick, but was far from a waste. Considering how hard it is to find QB's, you can live with them.

:( George deserves his own category. He hung for a long time and I have yet to hear a convincing reason why he didn't perform better.

These guys were the real wastes.

 

[Saints-Man]

Bledsoe was, BY FAR, a better pick than Plunkett by the way.Bledsoe made three Pro Bowls in his first five seasons, including his 4th season when the Pats improbably went to the Super Bowl.

I agree. I think Bledsoe was a good pick at the #1 slot.

 

[Jason Wood]

Frankly, its still too early to call Carson Palmer worth it. One playoff season isn't exactly what they drafted him for.My listWorth it: Terry BradshawJohn ElwayTroy AikmanPeyton ManningNot:Steve BartkowskiVinny TesteverdeJeff GeorgeDrew BledsoeCouch CarrPlunkettUndecided:Eli Alex SmithVickPalmerYou could put Carr in the undecided category, but I've seen enough watching the Texans games to say he wont be good anywhere.

I think this is a great list, with perhaps one switch. I would put Bledsoe in the "worth it." Again, if we're basing the "Worth It" as "winning a super bowl" then fine. But Bledsoe was a 3-time Pro Bowler in his first 5 years in New England, with three playoff appearances and a Super Bowl. That's pretty darn good.How many other 1st overall picks [regardless of position] matched Bledsoe's credentials?

 

[Jason Wood]

In the context of this discussion, I also think David Carr isn't an undecided. He wasn't worth the 1st overall pick for the Texans. Even if Carr goes on to win 4 Super Bowls elsewhere, it wasn't a worthwhile pick for the Texans.

 

[renesauz]

In the context of this discussion, I also think David Carr isn't an undecided. He wasn't worth the 1st overall pick for the Texans. Even if Carr goes on to win 4 Super Bowls elsewhere, it wasn't a worthwhile pick for the Texans.

But if he does go on to win a couple bowl games, it will have solidified the argument that Houston wasn't his fault, that it was the franchise' fault. That wouldn't mean he wasn't worth the first pick, just that the franchise couldn't get his true value out because of THEIR problems.If forced to choose now, he's an obvious If he wins a super bowl elsewhere and becomes a capable starter, he'll be a . Never can attain now.

 

[dparker713]

Frankly, its still too early to call Carson Palmer worth it. One playoff season isn't exactly what they drafted him for.My listWorth it: Terry BradshawJohn ElwayTroy AikmanPeyton ManningNot:Steve BartkowskiVinny TesteverdeJeff GeorgeDrew BledsoeCouch CarrPlunkettUndecided:Eli Alex SmithVickPalmerYou could put Carr in the undecided category, but I've seen enough watching the Texans games to say he wont be good anywhere.

I think this is a great list, with perhaps one switch. I would put Bledsoe in the "worth it." Again, if we're basing the "Worth It" as "winning a super bowl" then fine. But Bledsoe was a 3-time Pro Bowler in his first 5 years in New England, with three playoff appearances and a Super Bowl. That's pretty darn good.How many other 1st overall picks [regardless of position] matched Bledsoe's credentials?

I certainly don't consider Bledsoe a bust, and he nearly made my worth it list. He's had a very good career and will atleast get mentioned some for the HOF, though he realistically doesn't have a shot. My problem is that after his first few years, he mostly settled into an average starter that needed fantastic protection. It was close, but given the company I'd have to put him in, I decided to leave him in the not.

 

[bjabrad]

In the context of this discussion, I also think David Carr isn't an undecided. He wasn't worth the 1st overall pick for the Texans. Even if Carr goes on to win 4 Super Bowls elsewhere, it wasn't a worthwhile pick for the Texans.

But if he does go on to win a couple bowl games, it will have solidified the argument that Houston wasn't his fault, that it was the franchise' fault. That wouldn't mean he wasn't worth the first pick, just that the franchise couldn't get his true value out because of THEIR problems.If forced to choose now, he's an obvious If he wins a super bowl elsewhere and becomes a capable starter, he'll be a . Never can attain now.

Yep, Peyton would look like dog doo in Houston.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Again, if we're basing the "Worth It" as "winning a super bowl" then fine.

No, it's not.Why is success in professional football so dependent on the 21 people that start alongside you every week?

 

[matuski]

Lots of longtime starters for good teams in the "not worth it" list.

If a solid starting QB (franchise) is not worth the 1.1 pick... what is?

 

[Nookular Power]

Here's a list of the #1 picks for the last 40 years:

1967 Baltimore Bubba Smith, DT, Michigan State

1968 Minnesota Ron Yary, T, USC

1969 Buffalo O.J. Simpson, RB, USC

1970 Pittsburgh Terry Bradshaw, QB, Louisiana Tech

1971 New England Jim Plunkett, QB, Stanford

1972 Buffalo Walt Patulski, DE, Notre Dame

1973 Houston John Matuszak, DE, Tampa

1974 Dallas Ed Jones, DE, Tennessee State

1975 Atlanta Steve Bartkowski, QB, California

1976 Tampa Bay Lee Roy Selmon, DE, Oklahoma

1977 Tampa Bay Ricky Bell, RB, USC

1978 Houston Earl Campbell, RB, Texas

1979 Buffalo Tom Cousineau, LB, Ohio State

1980 Detroit Billy Sims, RB, Oklahoma

1981 New Orleans George Rogers, RB, South Carolina

1982 New England Kenneth Sims, DT, Texas

1983 Baltimore John Elway, QB, Stanford

1984 New England Irving Fryar, WR, Nebraska

1985 Buffalo Bruce Smith, DE, Virginia Tech

1986 Tampa Bay Bo Jackson, RB, Auburn

1987 Tampa Bay Vinny Testaverde, QB, Miami-FL

1988 Atlanta Aundray Bruce, LB, Auburn

1989 Dallas Troy Aikman, QB, UCLA

1990 Indianapolis Jeff George, QB, Illinois

1991 Dallas Russell Maryland, DT, Miami-FL

1992 Indianapolis Steve Emtman, DT, Washington

1993 New England Drew Bledsoe, QB, Washington State

1994 Cincinnati Dan Wilkinson, DT, Ohio State

1995 Cincinnati Ki-Jana Carter, RB, Penn State

1996 NY Jets Keyshawn Johnson, WR, USC

1997 St. Louis Orlando Pace, OT, Ohio State

1998 Indianapolis Peyton Manning, QB, Tennessee

1999 Cleveland Tim Couch, QB, Kentucky

2000 Cleveland Courtney Brown, DE, Penn State

2001 Atlanta Michael Vick, QB, Virginia Tech

2002 Houston David Carr, QB, Fresno State

2003 Cincinnati Carson Palmer, QB, USC

2004 San Diego Eli Manning, QB, Mississippi

2005 San Francisco Alex Smith, QB Utah

2006 Houston Mario Williams, DE North Carolina State

15 QBs, 25 non-QBs. How many of the non-QBs have performed at the level one would expect from a #1 pick? If we give Mario a pass (though honestly, who thinks this was a good pick, given the others available?), I'm saying:

Pace, Keyshawn, Bo (at least, he would have been, had he not gotten hurt -- can't say the same for other injured players like Ki-Jana Carter), Bruce Smith, Billy Sims, Campbell, Selmon, OJ, Bubba Smith. Some of the guys I can't say as I know well enough to say for sure. But I'm only counting 9/25. Seems #1 picks at ANY position struggle to be worth it. Thoughts? Disagreements?

 

[-OZ-]

1988 Atlanta Aundray Bruce, LB, Auburn1989 Dallas Troy Aikman, QB, UCLA1990 Indianapolis Jeff George, QB, Illinois1991 Dallas Russell Maryland, DT, Miami-FL1992 Indianapolis Steve Emtman, DT, Washington1993 New England Drew Bledsoe, QB, Washington State1994 Cincinnati Dan Wilkinson, DT, Ohio State1995 Cincinnati Ki-Jana Carter, RB, Penn State1996 NY Jets Keyshawn Johnson, WR, USC1997 St. Louis Orlando Pace, OT, Ohio State1998 Indianapolis Peyton Manning, QB, Tennessee1999 Cleveland Tim Couch, QB, Kentucky2000 Cleveland Courtney Brown, DE, Penn State2001 Atlanta Michael Vick, QB, Virginia Tech2002 Houston David Carr, QB, Fresno State2003 Cincinnati Carson Palmer, QB, USC2004 San Diego Eli Manning, QB, Mississippi2005 San Francisco Alex Smith, QB Utah2006 Houston Mario Williams, DE North Carolina State15 QBs, 25 non-QBs. How many of the non-QBs have performed at the level one would expect from a #1 pick? If we give Mario a pass (though honestly, who thinks this was a good pick, given the others available?), I'm sayingace, Keyshawn, Bo (at least, he would have been, had he not gotten hurt -- can't say the same for other injured players like Ki-Jana Carter), Bruce Smith, Billy Sims, Campbell, Selmon, OJ, Bubba Smith. Some of the guys I can't say as I know well enough to say for sure. But I'm only counting 9/25. Seems #1 picks at ANY position struggle to be worth it. Thoughts? Disagreements?

Didn't Bo hold out and get redrafted?Just looking at 20 years, I'd say 6 of the non-QBs were certainly NOT worth it, 2 (Keyshawn and Pace) seem to have been.You're absolutely right.

 

[Nookular Power]

Didn't Bo hold out and get redrafted?Just looking at 20 years, I'd say 6 of the non-QBs were certainly NOT worth it, 2 (Keyshawn and Pace) seem to have been.You're absolutely right.

Thanks for the props. Actually, Bo did more than hold out -- he played baseball. Got drafted late the next year (7th round?) by the Raiders, who held onto his rights for a couple years before Bo decided he wanted to play football again. And yeah, those other 6 from the last 20 years...I don't think there's even debate as to whether they were worth it. Though in a couple cases (Emtman and Carter) we never really got to see what they'd do in the NFL, as the injuries came early.

 

[Despyzer]

Along those same lines, I have a hard time calling Testaverde, Bledsoe, and Vick "busts".

Woah, woah, woah... slow down. Nobody was talking about busts until you came in here. There's a big difference between a bust and a guy who's not worth the #1 overall pick.

 

[-OZ-]

Along those same lines, I have a hard time calling Testaverde, Bledsoe, and Vick "busts".

Woah, woah, woah... slow down. Nobody was talking about busts until you came in here. There's a big difference between a bust and a guy who's not worth the #1 overall pick.

This conversation would be a lot shorter if we asked "which players have been worth the #1 overall pick"? Depending how you defined "worth it", Peyton Manning might be the only player picked #1 who was the best player. Maybe OJ, Campbell, Bradshaw, Billy Simms, Elway and Carson Palmer? From that list alone, I think we're seeing where QBs are worth the pick more than any other position.

 

[Phurfur]

Hmmm,First of all, Mike & Mike should be embarrassed at their lack of knowledge about NFL History.How can Jim Plunkett be considered worthy when he didn't win a Super Bowl until his 3rd NFL team? Plunkett didn't get into the playoffs until his 9th NFL season (1980).

and John Elway didn't win a Super Bowl until his 15th season.

 

[Despyzer]

1.1s worth the pick (in bold):

1967 Baltimore Bubba Smith, DT, Michigan State

1968 Minnesota Ron Yary, T, USC

1969 Buffalo O.J. Simpson, RB, USC

1970 Pittsburgh Terry Bradshaw, QB, Louisiana Tech

1971 New England Jim Plunkett, QB, Stanford

1972 Buffalo Walt Patulski, DE, Notre Dame

1973 Houston John Matuszak, DE, Tampa

1974 Dallas Ed Jones, DE, Tennessee State

1975 Atlanta Steve Bartkowski, QB, California

1976 Tampa Bay Lee Roy Selmon, DE, Oklahoma

1977 Tampa Bay Ricky Bell, RB, USC

1978 Houston Earl Campbell, RB, Texas

1979 Buffalo Tom Cousineau, LB, Ohio State

1980 Detroit Billy Sims, RB, Oklahoma

1981 New Orleans George Rogers, RB, South Carolina

1982 New England Kenneth Sims, DT, Texas

1983 Baltimore John Elway, QB, Stanford

1984 New England Irving Fryar, WR, Nebraska

1985 Buffalo Bruce Smith, DE, Virginia Tech

1986 Tampa Bay Bo Jackson, RB, Auburn

1987 Tampa Bay Vinny Testaverde, QB, Miami-FL

1988 Atlanta Aundray Bruce, LB, Auburn

1989 Dallas Troy Aikman, QB, UCLA

1990 Indianapolis Jeff George, QB, Illinois

1991 Dallas Russell Maryland, DT, Miami-FL

1992 Indianapolis Steve Emtman, DT, Washington

1993 New England Drew Bledsoe, QB, Washington State

1994 Cincinnati Dan Wilkinson, DT, Ohio State

1995 Cincinnati Ki-Jana Carter, RB, Penn State

1996 NY Jets Keyshawn Johnson, WR, USC

1997 St. Louis Orlando Pace, OT, Ohio State

1998 Indianapolis Peyton Manning, QB, Tennessee

1999 Cleveland Tim Couch, QB, Kentucky

2000 Cleveland Courtney Brown, DE, Penn State

2001 Atlanta Michael Vick, QB, Virginia Tech

2002 Houston David Carr, QB, Fresno State

2003 Cincinnati Carson Palmer, QB, USC

2004 San Diego Eli Manning, QB, Mississippi

2005 San Francisco Alex Smith, QB Utah

2006 Houston Mario Williams, DE North Carolina State

I counted a dozen over the past 40 years, but I was trying to tight. I also could have added Matuszak, Campbell, Sims, and maybe Rogers if I was being liberal.

 

[renesauz]

Along those same lines, I have a hard time calling Testaverde, Bledsoe, and Vick "busts".

Woah, woah, woah... slow down. Nobody was talking about busts until you came in here. There's a big difference between a bust and a guy who's not worth the #1 overall pick.

What I'm saying is that people in general underestimate how hard it is to get a franchise caliber QB. An average STARTING NFL QB is worth the #1 pick. An average starting anything else isn't. At any other position, they should be multi-pro-bowl caliber to be worth it.ETA: It appears NFL front-offices agree with me, based on the sheer # of QB's drafted at #1 overall compared to other positions.

 

[Despyzer]

ETA: It appears NFL front-offices agree with me, based on the sheer # of QB's drafted at #1 overall compared to other positions.

No, it appears that NFL front-offices understand the importance of having a high-quality QB, which makes it worth overvaluing them.

 

[BGP]

ETA: It appears NFL front-offices agree with me, based on the sheer # of QB's drafted at #1 overall compared to other positions.

No, it appears that NFL front-offices understand the importance of having a high-quality QB, which makes it worth overvaluing them.

I think QBs are overvalued in the draft. If you have a strong OL, many QBs can find success. Teams with strong offensive lines don't seem to have a problem finding a quarterback that can be productive, even if it is only for a short time (1-3 years). Eventually, if you are patient and keep your OL strong, a stud QB will fall to you in the draft, and then you got both.

 

[CalBear]

Along those same lines, I have a hard time calling Testaverde, Bledsoe, and Vick "busts".

Woah, woah, woah... slow down. Nobody was talking about busts until you came in here. There's a big difference between a bust and a guy who's not worth the #1 overall pick.

This conversation would be a lot shorter if we asked "which players have been worth the #1 overall pick"? Depending how you defined "worth it", Peyton Manning might be the only player picked #1 who was the best player. Maybe OJ, Campbell, Bradshaw, Billy Simms, Elway and Carson Palmer? From that list alone, I think we're seeing where QBs are worth the pick more than any other position.

Elway wasn't even the best QB in his own draft (Dan Marino). He might not even have been the second-best QB (Jim Kelly, but tainted by the USFL). And he didn't play for the team that drafted him. And Erik Dickerson was drafted at 1.02.

 

[Gr00vus]

Anyone who thinks Earl Campbell wasn't worth the #1 overall pick needs to put the crack pipe down - put it down now!

 

[BGP]

Along those same lines, I have a hard time calling Testaverde, Bledsoe, and Vick "busts".

Woah, woah, woah... slow down. Nobody was talking about busts until you came in here. There's a big difference between a bust and a guy who's not worth the #1 overall pick.

This conversation would be a lot shorter if we asked "which players have been worth the #1 overall pick"? Depending how you defined "worth it", Peyton Manning might be the only player picked #1 who was the best player. Maybe OJ, Campbell, Bradshaw, Billy Simms, Elway and Carson Palmer? From that list alone, I think we're seeing where QBs are worth the pick more than any other position.

Elway wasn't even the best QB in his own draft (Dan Marino). He might not even have been the second-best QB (Jim Kelly, but tainted by the USFL). And he didn't play for the team that drafted him. And Erik Dickerson was drafted at 1.02.

Elway went to a strong organization that put a lot of talent around him his entire career. A lot of people say he had no help. It doesn't wash. For example, in 1989 the Broncos had the #1 defense in the NFL. Did Elway play defense for them as well? But they didn't win the super bowl. Elway actually melted down a LOT in the playoffs. It wasn't until they took the ball out of his hands and gave it to Terrell Davis that he won anything.

 

[BGP]

As of April of 1992, John Elway had thrown 16 TDs and 17 INTs in the playoffs. He had completely melted down in super bowls against the Redskins and 49ers. The Broncos response was to select QB Tommy Maddox in the first round. But by 1995, they had become a running team behind Terrell Davis, and taking pressure off Elway helped him.

 

[cstu]

Bledsoe was, BY FAR, a better pick than Plunkett by the way.Bledsoe made three Pro Bowls in his first five seasons, including his 4th season when the Pats improbably went to the Super Bowl.

 

[redman]

Hmmm,First of all, Mike & Mike should be embarrassed at their lack of knowledge about NFL History.How can Jim Plunkett be considered worthy when he didn't win a Super Bowl until his 3rd NFL team? Plunkett didn't get into the playoffs until his 9th NFL season (1980).

Plunkett was a wreck who had two good playoff runs on teams that were built around other positions.

 

[Despyzer]

Elway actually melted down a LOT in the playoffs. It wasn't until they took the ball out of his hands and gave it to Terrell Davis that he won anything.

... and violated the salary cap.

 

[redman]

Why's everyone so down on Bartkowski? Considering what he had to work with in Atlanta, he didn't do badly:

+---------------------------------------+-----------------+				 |			  Passing				  |	 Rushing	 |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year  TM |   G |  Comp   Att   PCT	YD   Y/A  TD INT |  Att  Yards  TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 1975 atl |  11 |   115   255  45.1  1662   6.5  13  15 |	14	15   2 || 1976 atl |   5 |	57   120  47.5   677   5.6   2   9 |	 8   -10   1 || 1977 atl |   8 |	64   136  47.1   796   5.9   5  13 |	18	13   0 || 1978 atl |  14 |   187   369  50.7  2489   6.7  10  18 |	33	60   2 || 1979 atl |  14 |   204   380  53.7  2505   6.6  17  20 |	14	36   2 || 1980 atl |  16 |   257   463  55.5  3544   7.7  31  16 |	25	35   2 || 1981 atl |  16 |   297   533  55.7  3829   7.2  30  23 |	11	 2   0 || 1982 atl |   9 |   166   262  63.4  1905   7.3   8  11 |	13	 4   1 || 1983 atl |  14 |   274   432  63.4  3167   7.3  22   5 |	16	38   1 || 1984 atl |  11 |   181   269  67.3  2158   8.0  11  10 |	15	34   0 || 1985 atl |   5 |	69   111  62.2   738   6.6   5   1 |	 5	 9   0 || 1986 ram |   6 |	61   126  48.4   654   5.2   2   3 |	 6	 3   0 |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+|  TOTAL   | 129 |  1932  3456  55.9 24124   7.0 156 144 |   178   239  11 |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+

Two Pro Bowls and the first three playoff teams in franchise history aren't bad.

 

[-OZ-]

Along those same lines, I have a hard time calling Testaverde, Bledsoe, and Vick "busts".

Woah, woah, woah... slow down. Nobody was talking about busts until you came in here. There's a big difference between a bust and a guy who's not worth the #1 overall pick.

This conversation would be a lot shorter if we asked "which players have been worth the #1 overall pick"? Depending how you defined "worth it", Peyton Manning might be the only player picked #1 who was the best player. Maybe OJ, Campbell, Bradshaw, Billy Simms, Elway and Carson Palmer? From that list alone, I think we're seeing where QBs are worth the pick more than any other position.

Elway wasn't even the best QB in his own draft (Dan Marino). He might not even have been the second-best QB (Jim Kelly, but tainted by the USFL). And he didn't play for the team that drafted him. And Erik Dickerson was drafted at 1.02.

Fair enough. I forgot about Dickerson that year and Marino vs. Elway is debateable. I'd side with Marino, but I listed Elway because some would prefer him.

 

[Despyzer]

Why's everyone so down on Bartkowski? Considering what he had to work with in Atlanta, he didn't do badly

I'm not sure we have to be "down" on him just to feel he wasn't worth the #1 overall pick. I think he was a pretty darn good QB, and perhaps as good of a pick as there was in that draft (other than Randy White and Walter Payton).Perhaps we need to quantify what we are expecting out of the top pick in the draft. Are a handful of Pro-bowls and playoff appearances good enough?

 

[Da Guru]

They looked at the fifteen QBs drafted at 1.1 in the modern era, starting with Terry Bradshaw, and asked "How many of these guys have actually produced at the level that you would expect a #1 overall pick to perform?Here's how they broke it down: Terry BradshawJim PlunkettJohn ElwayTroy AikmanPeyton ManningCarson Palmer Steve BartkowskiVinny TesteverdeJeff GeorgeDrew BledsoeTim CouchMichael VickDavid Carr Eli ManningAlex SmithThey were a bit torn on Testeverde and Bledsoe. Discuss.

Bledsoe?? The rest have been busts but Drew has been solid.

 

[Nookular Power]

Why's everyone so down on Bartkowski? Considering what he had to work with in Atlanta, he didn't do badly

I'm not sure we have to be "down" on him just to feel he wasn't worth the #1 overall pick. I think he was a pretty darn good QB, and perhaps as good of a pick as there was in that draft (other than Randy White and Walter Payton).Perhaps we need to quantify what we are expecting out of the top pick in the draft. Are a handful of Pro-bowls and playoff appearances good enough?

Good suggestion. I think expecting the #1 pick to turn out to be the #1 player out of that draft is asking a bit much. As a couple of you guys pointed out with '83 -- Elway was a great pick at #1, but he's got some serious competition as the top guy that year. Marino, Dickerson...I'd even throw Darrell Green at least into the discussion (even if I wouldn't pick him over Elway). If I'm running a team and picking #1, I want that guy to be a perennial pro-bowler. Football, more than any other sport, is such a team game, I can't put it all on one guy to get me to the play-offs or to win championships. But my #1 pick should be top 4 or 5 at his position for a long time -- "handful of Pro-bowls" sounds like a reasonable expectation.I'm too lazy to do the leg-work right now...who would this leave us? I think Bledsoe *does* make the list. Probably still a short one -- maybe 30-35% of the #1 picks qualify.

 

[moleculo]

As of April of 1992, John Elway had thrown 16 TDs and 17 INTs in the playoffs. He had completely melted down in super bowls against the Redskins and 49ers. The Broncos response was to select QB Tommy Maddox in the first round. But by 1995, they had become a running team behind Terrell Davis, and taking pressure off Elway helped him.

Your point? Are you trying to imply that a man who won more games and started more SB's than any other QB in NFL history wasn't worth the #1 overall?

 

[moleculo]

Why's everyone so down on Bartkowski? Considering what he had to work with in Atlanta, he didn't do badly

I'm not sure we have to be "down" on him just to feel he wasn't worth the #1 overall pick. I think he was a pretty darn good QB, and perhaps as good of a pick as there was in that draft (other than Randy White and Walter Payton).Perhaps we need to quantify what we are expecting out of the top pick in the draft. Are a handful of Pro-bowls and playoff appearances good enough?

Good suggestion. I think expecting the #1 pick to turn out to be the #1 player out of that draft is asking a bit much. As a couple of you guys pointed out with '83 -- Elway was a great pick at #1, but he's got some serious competition as the top guy that year. Marino, Dickerson...I'd even throw Darrell Green at least into the discussion (even if I wouldn't pick him over Elway). If I'm running a team and picking #1, I want that guy to be a perennial pro-bowler. Football, more than any other sport, is such a team game, I can't put it all on one guy to get me to the play-offs or to win championships. But my #1 pick should be top 4 or 5 at his position for a long time -- "handful of Pro-bowls" sounds like a reasonable expectation.I'm too lazy to do the leg-work right now...who would this leave us? I think Bledsoe *does* make the list. Probably still a short one -- maybe 30-35% of the #1 picks qualify.

I think that to be fair, you should ojnly look for production within the first 6 years - a lengthy rookie contract. Bledsoe would certainly fall under the "good pick" category then. After the first 6 years, it becomes less of a "draft pick worth it" issue and more of a "contract worth it" issue or a "free agent signing worth it" issue.

 

[CalBear]

Are you trying to imply that a man who won more games and started more SB's than any other QB in NFL history wasn't worth the #1 overall?...I think that to be fair, you should ojnly look for production within the first 6 years - a lengthy rookie contract. Bledsoe would certainly fall under the "good pick" category then. After the first 6 years, it becomes less of a "draft pick worth it" issue and more of a "contract worth it" issue or a "free agent signing worth it" issue.

Elway's first 6 years:54.3% completions, 102 TD, 96 INT, two Super Bowl losses by a combined 41 points with a combined 48% completions and 4 INTs. Woo, great draft pick.

 

[ExtraPoint]

Well, you also have to consider the salary that's going to be dished out to that first pick. QBs naturally make more than other positions, and that weighs in on the minds of a GM. These days, the number one pick is going to be getting paid like a starting QB, so it doesnt hurt your cap by getting a good but not great QB at pick number 1. However if you paid that cash to a good but not great fullback or tight end you are screwed. I think that's part of why we are seeing certain positions go at the top more than others. So you take the best player... but only at select positions with QB at the top of that select position chart.