Drafts with Multiple QBs Taken in the 1st Round . . . is 2021 Class All That? (1 Viewer)

[Anarchy99]

This topic had me revisiting what the Packers did last year. Everyone thought it was an awful move to trade up for Jordan Love when they had Rodgers and could have used that pick to boost the offense even more with skill position players (in particular wr). BUT, Rodgers is in his late 30s...and they must have really liked the potential that Love has. You see the importance of having a good quarterback...it is a necessity in today’s game. They saw an opportunity to get a a guy with upside at the leagues most important position. It cost them a 4th rounder and their first (30th) to move up to 26 to select Love. I now look at what teams are paying for a chance to grab a QB and think maybe GB made the right move. Now I am not saying Love will be great (who knows), but if GB thinks that highly of him and it only costs an extra 4th to move up and get him...maybe they are smarter than I thought.

The GB/Rodgers situation is very similar to the NE/Brady one. The Packers drafted Love when Rodgers was 36. He went on to an MVP season.

The Patriots drafted Garoppolo when Brady was 36. He went on to win the SB that season (in addition to two other SBs with NE) and another MVP.

In both cases, the younger QB was little more than insurance should something happen to the legendary one. Love will only play if Rodgers gets hurt, which will repress Love’s trade value. Brady and Brees have shown that QBs can be productive until age 40+. The Packers won’t know what they have in Love by the time his contract is up and will have to give him starting QB money without the benefit of having him on a cheap rookie deal. 

The Patriots ran into that with Garoppolo. The only way to keep him was to franchise him (and they weren’t going to carry two QBs with a $50M cap charge. So they had to trade him. 

I mostly agree with the argument that either the Patriots or Packers would have been better having used those picks on a different player instead. In Garoppolo’s case, Brady played well for way longer than Garoppolo’s time in NE, so the succession plan got blown up and then there wasn’t an heir apparent. That same scenario is a definite possibility with Rodgers and Love. 

 

[IHEARTFF]

all of their pro days seemingly went very well

while unlikely, its possible there are 5 hits here

who is the bust if not?

 

[IHEARTFF]

and will we get all 5 top 8? seems very possible now

1 TLaw Jax

2 Wilson Jets

3 Lance SF

4 Fields Den trade up

8 Jones Car

 

[Marauder]

None of that wowed me about the prospects of the 2021 QB Draft Class. Maybe this is the draft class to end all draft classes for QBs . . . or maybe there are just a bunch of desperate teams in need of a QB that they collectively will go way earlier than they would in other years.

Just thinking about this a little bit.   Neither of these statements is exactly true IMO.  This QB class is not necessarily stronger than some others, like 2018 where 4 QB's went in the top 10 but what happens is certain positions always go higher than they should due to position scarcity. QB and pass rushers are the big ones followed by Offensive tackles and CB's.  This year there just happens to be no real elite players at those other key positions (maybe Sewell but I don't see him as really elite).  If there was a Miles Garrett or Nick Bosa or Chase Young this year we wouldn't be talking about QB's going 1-2-3.   This is a really good year for WR's and TE's but those positions don't typically get taken at the very top of the draft.  Just a random distribution of what positions among the top prospects that is pushing the top QB's up the board a little more than they normally would be.

 

[Anarchy99]

Just thinking about this a little bit.   Neither of these statements is exactly true IMO.  This QB class is not necessarily stronger than some others, like 2018 where 4 QB's went in the top 10 but what happens is certain positions always go higher than they should due to position scarcity. QB and pass rushers are the big ones followed by Offensive tackles and CB's.  This year there just happens to be no real elite players at those other key positions (maybe Sewell but I don't see him as really elite).  If there was a Miles Garrett or Nick Bosa or Chase Young this year we wouldn't be talking about QB's going 1-2-3.   This is a really good year for WR's and TE's but those positions don't typically get taken at the very top of the draft.  Just a random distribution of what positions among the top prospects that is pushing the top QB's up the board a little more than they normally would be.

Since you mentioned 2018 with 4 guys taken in the Top 10, based on early results, Mayfield and Allen look to be solid investments while Darnold and Rosen appear to be wasted picks (again, based on what has happened so far). I heard a discussion recently that Darnold may not get another chance to start and other franchises are looking at him as a backup. Rosen doesn't look like he would even be valued as a backup these days. The point being, the hit rate that season for Top 10 QB was 50/50%.

And on that front, here were all the QB taken in the Top 10 in the past 10 drafts. It is probably too soon to tell on some of the more recent guys, but there's enough track record for some of them to consider then worthwhile or not.

2020 1 1 Joe Burrow Plus
2020 5 5 Tua Tagovailoa Too Soon
2020 6 6 Justin Herbert Plus
2019 1 1 Kyler Murray Plus
2019 6 6 Daniel Jones Too Soon
2018 1 1 Baker Mayfield Plus
2018 3 3 Sam Darnold Minus
2018 7 7 Josh Allen Plus
2018 10 10 Josh Rosen Minus
2017 2 2 Mitchell Trubisky Minus
2017 10 10 Patrick Mahomes Plus
2016 1 1 Jared Goff Neutral
2016 2 2 Carson Wentz Neutral
2015 1 1 Jameis Winston Neutral
2015 2 2 Marcus Mariota Minus
2014 3 3 Blake Bortles Minus
2012 1 1 Andrew Luck Plus
2012 2 2 Robert Griffin Minus
2012 8 8 Ryan Tannehill Neutral
2011 1 1 Cam Newton Plus
2011 8 8 Jake Locker Minus
2011 10 10 Blaine Gabbert Minus


Of the 22 QB, I have them at 8 Plus, 2 Too Soon, 4 Neutral, and 8 Minus. Depending on how we work the math, that's a hit rate as high as 50/50% (8 plus/8 minus) of as low as 36% (8 plus out of 22 picks).

Maybe this draft class has better QBs (or as you mentioned weaker players at other positions). But there very easily could be only 2 plus players of what could be 5 QB selected in the Top 10 picks this draft (if the win rate is similar to prior QB picks). So unless a team further back REALLLLLY likes the guy they are trading up for, using 3 first round picks to get the 4th or 5th QB seems pretty risky (the flip flop of picks in this draft plus two other first rounders to move up . . . if not other picks on top of that).

 

[Marauder]

Since you mentioned 2018 with 4 guys taken in the Top 10, based on early results, Mayfield and Allen look to be solid investments while Darnold and Rosen appear to be wasted picks (again, based on what has happened so far). I heard a discussion recently that Darnold may not get another chance to start and other franchises are looking at him as a backup. Rosen doesn't look like he would even be valued as a backup these days. The point being, the hit rate that season for Top 10 QB was 50/50%.

And on that front, here were all the QB taken in the Top 10 in the past 10 drafts. It is probably too soon to tell on some of the more recent guys, but there's enough track record for some of them to consider then worthwhile or not.

2020 1 1 Joe Burrow Plus
2020 5 5 Tua Tagovailoa Too Soon
2020 6 6 Justin Herbert Plus
2019 1 1 Kyler Murray Plus
2019 6 6 Daniel Jones Too Soon
2018 1 1 Baker Mayfield Plus
2018 3 3 Sam Darnold Minus
2018 7 7 Josh Allen Plus
2018 10 10 Josh Rosen Minus
2017 2 2 Mitchell Trubisky Minus
2017 10 10 Patrick Mahomes Plus
2016 1 1 Jared Goff Neutral
2016 2 2 Carson Wentz Neutral
2015 1 1 Jameis Winston Neutral
2015 2 2 Marcus Mariota Minus
2014 3 3 Blake Bortles Minus
2012 1 1 Andrew Luck Plus
2012 2 2 Robert Griffin Minus
2012 8 8 Ryan Tannehill Neutral
2011 1 1 Cam Newton Plus
2011 8 8 Jake Locker Minus
2011 10 10 Blaine Gabbert Minus


Of the 22 QB, I have them at 8 Plus, 2 Too Soon, 4 Neutral, and 8 Minus. Depending on how we work the math, that's a hit rate as high as 50/50% (8 plus/8 minus) of as low as 36% (8 plus out of 22 picks).

Maybe this draft class has better QBs (or as you mentioned weaker players at other positions). But there very easily could be only 2 plus players of what could be 5 QB selected in the Top 10 picks this draft (if the win rate is similar to prior QB picks). So unless a team further back REALLLLLY likes the guy they are trading up for, using 3 first round picks to get the 4th or 5th QB seems pretty risky (the flip flop of picks in this draft plus two other first rounders to move up . . . if not other picks on top of that).

Oh, I think it's highly likely that there will be at least one or two busts among the top QB's in this draft.  History tells us that will probably be the case but, as I mentioned earlier in this thread, it's not a binary hit/miss question.  The payoff if you get a Josh Allen/Mahomes/Watson type is so high that it's worth the risk.  Sometimes it's worth it to draw to an inside straight if the pot odds are high enough.

 

[Anarchy99]

Oh, I think it's highly likely that there will be at least one or two busts among the top QB's in this draft.  History tells us that will probably be the case but, as I mentioned earlier in this thread, it's not a binary hit/miss question.  The payoff if you get a Josh Allen/Mahomes/Watson type is so high that it's worth the risk.  Sometimes it's worth it to draw to an inside straight if the pot odds are high enough.

The cost/benefit analysis has to change these days, as it's one thing to wonder investing a single pick in the draft on a QB (like JAX / NYJ / ATL). It's a whole other matter when you start considering the cost is a first round pick AND two additional firsts and a third like SF invested.

Looking back at some notable trade ups . . .

2011 - JAC traded a 2nd to WAS to move from 16 to 10 to draft Blaine Gabbert (FAIL)
2012 - WFT traded 2 firsts and a 2nd to move from pick 6 to pick 2 to draft RGIII (FAIL)
2014 - CLE traded a 3rd to move up from 26 to 22 to pick Johnny Manziel (FAIL)
2014 - MIN traded a 4th to move up from 40 to 32 to pick Teddy Bridgewater (NEUTRAL)
2016 - LAR traded a 1st, 2 seconds, and 2 thirds to move from 15 to 1 to draft Jarod Goff (mostly a FAIL)
2016 - PHI traded 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks to move from 8 to 2 to draft Carson Wentz (mostly a FAIL)
2016 - DEN traded a 3rd to move up from 31 to 26 to draft Paxton Lynch (FAIL)
2017 - CHI traded two 3rds and a 4th to move from 3 to 2 to draft Mitchell Trubisky (FAIL)
2017 - KC traded a 1st and a 3rd to move from 27 to 10 to draft Patrick Mahomes (HOME RUN)
2017 - HOU traded a 1st to move from 25 to 12 to draft Deshaun Watson (was a HOME RUN, now ???)
2018 - NYJ traded three 2nd round picks to move from 6 to 3 to draft Sam Darnold (FAIL)
2018 - BUF traded two 2nd round picks to move from 12 to 7 to take Josh Allen (looks really good now)
2018 - ARI traded a 3rd and a 5th to move from 15 to 10 to draft Josh Rosen (FAIL)
2018 - BAL traded a 2nd and a 4th to move from 52 to 32 to draft Lamar Jackson (HOME RUN)
2020 - GB traded a 4th round pick to move from 30 to 26 to draft Jordan Love (a curious decision but too soon to determine an outcome)

It's interesting to see how broad a range it took for teams to move up. Some were blockbuster deals . . . others weren't nearly as costly. As you mentioned, Allen/Mahomes/Watson turned out well. But the decent majority did not turn out well.

 

[Marauder]

For sure SF is pushing a lot more chips into the pot and the risk may not be worth the reward for them.

Another thing I was thinking of.  Other people in here have mentioned that the team the player ends up with matters a lot.  The type of player also matters.  Josh Allen struggled as a passer his first year or two in the league but his rushing kept his team in games and they stuck with him until he improved as a passer.  Josh Rosen struggled as a passer and his team ended up with the #1 pick the next year and they gave up on him.  One advantage this years crop has is that Lance, Fields and Wilson can all win with their feet if they need to.  Honestly, SF should probably take Lance because his elite rushing ability will buy him time in case he struggles as a passer similar to Allen or Lamar Jackson.

 

[Anarchy99]

For sure SF is pushing a lot more chips into the pot and the risk may not be worth the reward for them.

Another thing I was thinking of.  Other people in here have mentioned that the team the player ends up with matters a lot.  The type of player also matters.  Josh Allen struggled as a passer his first year or two in the league but his rushing kept his team in games and they stuck with him until he improved as a passer.  Josh Rosen struggled as a passer and his team ended up with the #1 pick the next year and they gave up on him.  One advantage this years crop has is that Lance, Fields and Wilson can all win with their feet if they need to.  Honestly, SF should probably take Lance because his elite rushing ability will buy him time in case he struggles as a passer similar to Allen or Lamar Jackson.

I think the verdict is still out on how much teams can win with a QB that runs a lot. IMO, the only recent guy that has won runs way more than the average QB is Lamar. Other guys can keep plays alive, can scramble, and on occasion break off a big run. Those guys get labeled as mobile QBs. But IMO, their value add is keeping plays alive, not necessarily running the football 10-15 times a game. Allen had 4500/37 last year . . . the 400/8 was just gravy. BUF won because of his passing, not due to his rushing. 

I suffered through Cam running a lot last year for NE. His 600/12 rushing did very little to help the Patriots win much of anything. I think teams wanting or expecting QBs to run the football are destined for trouble, as they haven't typically won a lot. They also expose their franchise QBs to injury. We'll have to see the career longevity of the recent crop of guys that can rack up a lot of rushing yards (or wait to see at what point they start becoming pocket passers and don't run nearly as much).

I get the dual threat element, but having a mobile QB with good numbers doesn't guarantee much of anything. Watson had 4800/33 and 450/3 last year and HOU won 4 games. Murray had roughly 4000/26 and 800/11 and ARI won 8 games.

There haven't been a ton of QBs that have run the ball a lot. Cam had one great season running and passing, but the other years he ran a lot the team was usually under .500. Same think with Vick . . . one really good year but the other seasons when he was a huge cog running the ball they didn't win a ton. Randall Cunningham was more of what a current QB might look like. He had some really good seasons with PHI but they couldn't win very often in the playoffs. One of the old school running QBs was Bobby Douglas. I think one year he got close to 1,000 rushing yards in the early 70's, but IIRC only won 4 games that season.

I think teams will start rethinking how much they want their guy to run the ball when they start getting paid $30-40M. Too much money invested for a guy to get hurt and potentially never be the same like RGIII.

 

[Marauder]

I think the verdict is still out on how much teams can win with a QB that runs a lot. IMO, the only recent guy that has won runs way more than the average QB is Lamar. Other guys can keep plays alive, can scramble, and on occasion break off a big run. Those guys get labeled as mobile QBs. But IMO, their value add is keeping plays alive, not necessarily running the football 10-15 times a game. Allen had 4500/37 last year . . . the 400/8 was just gravy. BUF won because of his passing, not due to his rushing. 

I suffered through Cam running a lot last year for NE. His 600/12 rushing did very little to help the Patriots win much of anything. I think teams wanting or expecting QBs to run the football are destined for trouble, as they haven't typically won a lot. They also expose their franchise QBs to injury. We'll have to see the career longevity of the recent crop of guys that can rack up a lot of rushing yards (or wait to see at what point they start becoming pocket passers and don't run nearly as much).

I get the dual threat element, but having a mobile QB with good numbers doesn't guarantee much of anything. Watson had 4800/33 and 450/3 last year and HOU won 4 games. Murray had roughly 4000/26 and 800/11 and ARI won 8 games.

There haven't been a ton of QBs that have run the ball a lot. Cam had one great season running and passing, but the other years he ran a lot the team was usually under .500. Same think with Vick . . . one really good year but the other seasons when he was a huge cog running the ball they didn't win a ton. Randall Cunningham was more of what a current QB might look like. He had some really good seasons with PHI but they couldn't win very often in the playoffs. One of the old school running QBs was Bobby Douglas. I think one year he got close to 1,000 rushing yards in the early 70's, but IIRC only won 4 games that season.

I think teams will start rethinking how much they want their guy to run the ball when they start getting paid $30-40M. Too much money invested for a guy to get hurt and potentially never be the same like RGIII.

My point was that Josh Allen had barely 2000 passing yards and 10 passing TD's his rookie year but his 630 rushing yards and 8 rushing TD's kept his team in games and kept his job as a starter until he improved as a passer.  Eventually young QB's need to be able to get the job done as a passer but what I'm saying is that if they can produce with their legs it buys them time to learn on the job.  That's a luxury that less mobile QB's don't have.   Mac Jones will need to produce as a passer early to keep a starting job.  Trey Lance will be given more time.

 

[Blackbear]

My point was that Josh Allen had barely 2000 passing yards and 10 passing TD's his rookie year but his 630 rushing yards and 8 rushing TD's kept his team in games and kept his job as a starter until he improved as a passer.  Eventually young QB's need to be able to get the job done as a passer but what I'm saying is that if they can produce with their legs it buys them time to learn on the job.  That's a luxury that less mobile QB's don't have.   Mac Jones will need to produce as a passer early to keep a starting job.  Trey Lance will be given more time.

Well with only 17 games under his belt... and playing fcs.... I think the team that drafts Lance knows he’s a project where you don’t need wins now.

 

[Soulfly3]

Well with only 17 games under his belt... and playing fcs.... I think the team that drafts Lance knows he’s a project where you don’t need wins now.

what do you mean? I was told lance is a better prospect out of college than mayfield

 

[Blackbear]

what do you mean? I was told lance is a better prospect out of college than mayfield

Long term I think so. I think Lance has a chance to be the next Mahomes type. But I am not confident he will flourish if he’s expected to produce right away. I think he is the type that would benefit by sitting behind a starter for a year. 

 

[Soulfly3]

Long term I think so. I think Lance has a chance to be the next Mahomes type. 

mahomes type in what regard? 

played one season essentially. in a weak conference.

he had ONE 300yd passing game. THREE games between 2-300 yds. TEN between 1-200yds. and TWO under 100yds.

that ain't it for me. at all. when Im drafting a QB, i want a QB. 

yes lamar put in an mvp season, but longterm success from him is something im STILL not certain of. he's not a very good QB. 

 

[Blackbear]

mahomes type in what regard? 

played one season essentially. in a weak conference.

he had ONE 300yd passing game. THREE games between 2-300 yds. TEN between 1-200yds. and TWO under 100yds.

that ain't it for me. at all. when Im drafting a QB, i want a QB. 

yes lamar put in an mvp season, but longterm success from him is something im STILL not certain of. he's not a very good QB. 

I like the way he threw the ball. 

 

[Soulfly3]

I like the way he threw the ball. 

im just not a big fan of a running qb, and likely never will be.

a scrambler is a necessity now... but i dont trust runners. 

i also dont like the way ance looked throwing the ball, but maybe a year behind jimmy will do him a world of good

 

[Blackbear]

im just not a big fan of a running qb, and likely never will be.

a scrambler is a necessity now... but i dont trust runners. 

i also dont like the way ance looked throwing the ball, but maybe a year behind jimmy will do him a world of good

As a 49er fan you won’t need worry.

 

[Blackbear]

Lance, Wilson, Fields, then a drop of in five years watch.

 

[Soulfly3]

honestly not trying to be a ####, but no idea what your last 2 posts mean

 

[Tanner9919]

Fields is the bust candidate , going to follow his alum Haskins right off the cliff. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Fields is the bust candidate , going to follow his alum Haskins right off the cliff. 

Why? What does Fields have to do with Haskins? 

 

[massraider]

It's fairly crazy to me that Lance is most likely going to be drafted top 10.

It wasn't that many years ago that people were talking about how good pro QBs had to have x number of starts in college, and there was really convincing arguments that backed that up.  That narrative has completely disappeared.  Maybe Cam was the first QB that bucked that trend?  I can't remember.  There have been several, and a 1 year starter doesn't scare many people now.  

Lance has 1 season, as a redshirt freshman, for North Dakota State, not even this past season!  Drafting your QB, and tying your job to him, if we're being honest, based on a freshman year at NDSU.  If he bombs, it'll be an easy thing to point to.  How many stud players have devy guys talked about, only to get a second look, and that player to disappear?

And he's started the same number of games as Mac Jones.  (Which, now that I think about it, should make everyone rest easy, because Mac Jones already has the processing capability of Tom Brady using a supercomputer.  It's true!).  Jones' lack of experience hasn't been mentioned at all, as far as I can see.  

I have no idea if he'll be any good, and have no opinion.  I root for any crazy athletes at any position in the league, makes the TV better.  But from a 1000-foot view, taking any player with that resume, that high, is something I don't think I would do as a GM.  This doesn't work out, you gotta move after you get fired, new schools for the kids.........

 

[Anarchy99]

It's fairly crazy to me that Lance is most likely going to be drafted top 10.

It wasn't that many years ago that people were talking about how good pro QBs had to have x number of starts in college, and there was really convincing arguments that backed that up.  That narrative has completely disappeared.  Maybe Cam was the first QB that bucked that trend?  I can't remember.  There have been several, and a 1 year starter doesn't scare many people now.  

Lance has 1 season, as a redshirt freshman, for North Dakota State, not even this past season!  Drafting your QB, and tying your job to him, if we're being honest, based on a freshman year at NDSU.  If he bombs, it'll be an easy thing to point to.  How many stud players have devy guys talked about, only to get a second look, and that player to disappear?

And he's started the same number of games as Mac Jones.  (Which, now that I think about it, should make everyone rest easy, because Mac Jones already has the processing capability of Tom Brady using a supercomputer.  It's true!).  Jones' lack of experience hasn't been mentioned at all, as far as I can see.  

I have no idea if he'll be any good, and have no opinion.  I root for any crazy athletes at any position in the league, makes the TV better.  But from a 1000-foot view, taking any player with that resume, that high, is something I don't think I would do as a GM.  This doesn't work out, you gotta move after you get fired, new schools for the kids.........

I have mentioned several times in multiple threads I myself am risk adverse when it comes to one year wonder guys (may or may not have been in this thread). I will look up and post more info on this . . .

 

[3nOut]

Chris Simms just ranked Kellon Mond 4th in this year's draft class above Fields and Lance. Interesting.

 

[Soulfly3]

Chris Simms just ranked Kellon Mond 4th in this year's draft class above Fields and Lance. Interesting.

there's not much interesting about ranking several players above lance. 

dying to know how many 1st rnd QBs have had only ONE 300yd passing game in college (in a bum conference, no less). im willing to say he'd be the only one ever 

 

[Anarchy99]

there's not much interesting about ranking several players above lance. 

dying to know how many 1st rnd QBs have had only ONE 300yd passing game in college (in a bum conference, no less). im willing to say he'd be the only one ever 

Cam Newton is another with only one 300 yard game and went first overall. 

 

[Soulfly3]

Cam Newton is another with only one 300 yard game and went first overall. 

he had 2 iirc. And was at least the SEC. And he absolutely dominated. Lance didn't even  play last year and never dominated anything

 

[Blackbear]

he had 2 iirc. And was at least the SEC. And he absolutely dominated. Lance didn't even  play last year and never dominated anything

It is FCS, but he won championship and was MVP. Not a strong league, but dominated that level of competition. His fault is that he didn’t play in SEC or another top FBS league. But I hear you, he is a gamble for sure. He may fall in the nfl draft because of this. 

 

[Soulfly3]

It is FCS, but he won championship and was MVP. Not a strong league, but dominated that level of competition. His fault is that he didn’t play in SEC or another top FBS league. But I hear you, he is a gamble for sure. He may fall in the nfl draft because of this. 

I wasnt big on cam out of college either, tbh, despite his dominance. He did much better than I expected early on...

I'm just not high on running QBs. they all seem to fizzle early... QBs need to be able to make big throws at big times as well as consistently. it just never seems to happen w these guys

 

[Anarchy99]

I found the pre-draft college prospect ratings on NFL.com, which I believe are developed by Lance Zierlein. When you see the list, it will show that even experts get things wrong. But it will also show what I have been wondering about . . . is this draft class filled with highly rated QB prospects?

Trevor Lawrence, 7.4, 2021
Sam Darnold, 7.1 2018
Joe Burrow, 7.07, 2020
Mitchell Trubisky, 7.0, 2017
Jarod Goff, 7.0, 2016
Jameis Winston, 7.0, 2015
Kyler Murray, 6.8, 2019
Deshaun Watson, 6.8, 2017
Paxton Lynch, 6.8, 2016
Marcus Mariota, 6.8, 2015
Teddy Bridgewater, 6.8, 2014
Bllake Bortles, 6.8, 2014
Tua Tagovailoa, 6.77, 2020
Dwayne Haskins, 6.7, 2019
Josh Rosen, 6.7, 2018
Baker Mayfield, 6.7, 2018
Carson Wentz, 6.7, 2016
Zach Wilson, 6.5, 2021
Trey Lance, 6.47, 2021
Justin Fields, 6.45, 2021
Justin Herbert, 6.45, 2020
Drew Lock, 6.4, 2019
Lamar Jackson, 6.4, 2018
Josh Allen, 6.4, 2018
Johnny Manziel, 6.4, 2014
Jordan Love, 6.36, 2020
Mac Jones, 6.33, 2021
Daniel Jones, 6.3, 2019
Nathan Peterman, 6.3, 2017
Patrick Mahomes, 6.3, 2017
Deshone Kizer, 6.3, 2017
Connor Cook, 6.3, 2016
Derek Carr, 6.3, 2014
Jacob Eason, 6.25, 2020
Ryan Finley,6.2, 2019
Mason Rudolph, 6.2, 2018
AJ McCarron, 6.2, 2014
Kyle Trask, 6.19, 2021
Jake Fromm, 6.16, 2020
Davis Mills, 6.14, 2021
Jalen Hurts, 6.14, 2020
Kellen Mond, 6.12, 2021
Jarrett Stidham, 6.1, 2019
Mike White, 6.1, 2018
Luke Falk, 6.1, 2018
Brad Kaaya, 6.1, 2017
Christian Hackenberg, 6.1, 2016
Jacoby Brissett, 6.1, 2016
Brett Hundley, 6.1, 2015
Jamie Newman, 6.0, 2021
Dak Prescott, 5.9, 2016
Jimmy Garoppolo, 5.9, 2014
Gardner Minshew, 5.6, 2019

So on the surface it looks like this year's grouping has first round grades. But it also appears to show that the non first round guys this year are more backup level guys than potential starters. Obviously anyone can be better or worse than expected and this is only one person's ratings. But this is just another resource in terms of someone's ratings for comparison.

 

[Anarchy99]

It's fairly crazy to me that Lance is most likely going to be drafted top 10.

It wasn't that many years ago that people were talking about how good pro QBs had to have x number of starts in college, and there was really convincing arguments that backed that up.  That narrative has completely disappeared.  Maybe Cam was the first QB that bucked that trend?  I can't remember.  There have been several, and a 1 year starter doesn't scare many people now.  

Lance has 1 season, as a redshirt freshman, for North Dakota State, not even this past season!  Drafting your QB, and tying your job to him, if we're being honest, based on a freshman year at NDSU.  If he bombs, it'll be an easy thing to point to.  How many stud players have devy guys talked about, only to get a second look, and that player to disappear?

And he's started the same number of games as Mac Jones.  (Which, now that I think about it, should make everyone rest easy, because Mac Jones already has the processing capability of Tom Brady using a supercomputer.  It's true!).  Jones' lack of experience hasn't been mentioned at all, as far as I can see.  

I have no idea if he'll be any good, and have no opinion.  I root for any crazy athletes at any position in the league, makes the TV better.  But from a 1000-foot view, taking any player with that resume, that high, is something I don't think I would do as a GM.  This doesn't work out, you gotta move after you get fired, new schools for the kids.........

As best I could, I looked up the number of starts in college for guys that were drafted in the first two rounds (and a couple of other notables). Starts aren't really an actual statistic in most college stat databases. I didn't really count games where teams had a 2 or 3 man QB rotation. And the farther back you go, the sketchier the numbers get. But this should be a pretty close representation to have a discussion on. I went back 20 drafts.

2021	Kellen Mond	43
	Trevor Lawrence	38
	Zach Wilson	28
	Kyle Trask	22
	Justin Fields	22
	Mac Jones	17
	Trey Lance	17
	Jamie Newman	16
	Davis Mills	13
		
2020	Justin Herbert	42
	Jalen Hurts	40
	Jordan Love	32
	Joe Burrow	28
	Tua Tagovailoa	25
		
2019	Drew Lock	46
	Daniel Jones	36
	Kyler Murray	17
	Dwayne Haskins	14
		
2018	Baker Mayfield	48
	Lamar Jackson	36
	Josh Rosen	30
	Josh Allen	25
	Sam Darnold	24
		
2017	Deshaun Watson	34
	Patrick Mahomes	28
	Mitch Trubisky	13
		
2016	Paxton Lynch	38
	C Hackenberg	38
	Dak Prescott	37
	Jared Goff	36
	Carson Wentz	23
		
2015	Marcus Mariota	41
	Jameis Winston	27
		
2014	Jimmy Garoppolo	45
	Derek Carr	39
	T Bridgewater	37
	Blake Bortles	30
	Johnny Manziel	26
		
2013	Geno Smith	41
	EJ Manuel	33
		
2012	Russell Wilson	49
	Kirk Cousins	42
	Robert Griffin	41
	Andrew Luck	38
	Brandon Weeden	26
	Ryan Tannehill	20
	Brock Osweiler	15
		
2011	Andy Dalton	50
	C Kaepernick	49
	Jake Locker	40
	C Ponder	35
	Blaine Gabbert	26
	Cam Newton	14
		
2010	Tim Tebow	41
	Jimmy Clausen	34
	Sam Bradford	31
		
2009	Pat White	43
	Matt Stafford	37
	Josh Freeman	33
	Mark Sanchez	16
		
2008	Chad Henne	47
	Matt Ryan	37
	Brian Brohm	33
	Joe Flacco	25
		
2007	Kevin Kolb	50
	Brady Quinn	47
	John Beck	37
	Drew Stanton	29
	J Russell	25
		
2006	Jay Cutler	43
	Matt Leinart	39
	T Jackson	37
	Kellen Clemens	32
	Vince Young	30
		
2005	Jason Campbell	38
	Aaron Rodgers	23
	Alex Smith	22
		
2004	Philip Rivers	49
	Roethlisberger	38
	Eli Manning	37
	J.P. Losman	27
		
2003	Carson Palmer	45
	Kyle Boller	38
	Byron Leftwich	36
	Rex Grossman	32
		
2002	Patrick Ramsey	32
	Joey Harringotn	28
	David Carr	25
		
2001	Drew Brees	37
	Quincy Carter	29
	M Tuiasosopo	28
	Michael Vick	22

 

[rzrback77]

I found the pre-draft college prospect ratings on NFL.com, which I believe are developed by Lance Zierlein. When you see the list, it will show that even experts get things wrong. But it will also show what I have been wondering about . . . is this draft class filled with highly rated QB prospects?

Trevor Lawrence, 7.4, 2021
Sam Darnold, 7.1 2018
Joe Burrow, 7.07, 2020
Mitchell Trubisky, 7.0, 2017
Jarod Goff, 7.0, 2016
Jameis Winston, 7.0, 2015
Kyler Murray, 6.8, 2019
Deshaun Watson, 6.8, 2017
Paxton Lynch, 6.8, 2016
Marcus Mariota, 6.8, 2015
Teddy Bridgewater, 6.8, 2014
Bllake Bortles, 6.8, 2014
Tua Tagovailoa, 6.77, 2020
Dwayne Haskins, 6.7, 2019
Josh Rosen, 6.7, 2018
Baker Mayfield, 6.7, 2018
Carson Wentz, 6.7, 2016
Zach Wilson, 6.5, 2021
Trey Lance, 6.47, 2021
Justin Fields, 6.45, 2021
Justin Herbert, 6.45, 2020
Drew Lock, 6.4, 2019
Lamar Jackson, 6.4, 2018
Josh Allen, 6.4, 2018
Johnny Manziel, 6.4, 2014
Jordan Love, 6.36, 2020
Mac Jones, 6.33, 2021
Daniel Jones, 6.3, 2019
Nathan Peterman, 6.3, 2017
Patrick Mahomes, 6.3, 2017
Deshone Kizer, 6.3, 2017
Connor Cook, 6.3, 2016
Derek Carr, 6.3, 2014
Jacob Eason, 6.25, 2020
Ryan Finley,6.2, 2019
Mason Rudolph, 6.2, 2018
AJ McCarron, 6.2, 2014
Kyle Trask, 6.19, 2021
Jake Fromm, 6.16, 2020
Davis Mills, 6.14, 2021
Jalen Hurts, 6.14, 2020
Kellen Mond, 6.12, 2021
Jarrett Stidham, 6.1, 2019
Mike White, 6.1, 2018
Luke Falk, 6.1, 2018
Brad Kaaya, 6.1, 2017
Christian Hackenberg, 6.1, 2016
Jacoby Brissett, 6.1, 2016
Brett Hundley, 6.1, 2015
Jamie Newman, 6.0, 2021
Dak Prescott, 5.9, 2016
Jimmy Garoppolo, 5.9, 2014
Gardner Minshew, 5.6, 2019

So on the surface it looks like this year's grouping has first round grades. But it also appears to show that the non first round guys this year are more backup level guys than potential starters. Obviously anyone can be better or worse than expected and this is only one person's ratings. But this is just another resource in terms of someone's ratings for comparison.

I combined the above list with the number of college games started to look for trends and used the rating of 6.30 (which matched Patrick Mahomes - an obvious ranking error) as the lowest that I would consider.

The listed QBs rated at 6.30 or better (Zierlein) and also are ranked below 32 at the beginning of 2021 on the Footballguys QB Dynasty ratings are:

1. Trubiski 7.0 13 starts (2017)
   
2. P. Lynch 6.80 & 38 (2016)
   
3. Mariota 6.80 & 41 (2015)
   
4. Bortles 6.80 & 30 (2014)
   
5. Haskins 6.70 & 14 (2019)
   
6. Rosen 6.70 & 30 (2019)
   
7. Manziel 6.40 & 26 (2014)
   
8. Jordan Love 6.40 & 32 (2020) 
   
9. Peterman 6.30 & ? (2017)
   
10. A total of 20 QBs rated at 6.30 or better are currently ranked by FBG at or above 32 for Dynasty. including 2021 rookies, Lawrence 7.40, 38 gms & 10, Zach Wilson 6.50, 28 gms & 17, T. Lance 6.47, 17 gms & 25, Fields 6.45, 22 gms & 13 and Mac Jones 6.33, 17 gms &28
    
11. Only three QBs (rookies after 2013) currently ranked in the FBG top 32 Dynasty had ratings by Zierlein at or below 6.30. Derek Carr 6.30, 39 gms  & 24, Jalen Hurts 6.14, 40 gms & 20 and Dak Prescott 5.90, 37 gms & 5.
    
12. The other 8 QBs ranked in the top 32 of Dynasty were all rookies in 2012 or before and were not included in the data provided above.
    
13. Not much success for those with rankings below 6.30, with Mahomes looking like an inaccurate rating and Dak Prescott at 5.90, along with Derek Carr and Jalen Hurts.
    
14. Of the QBs on the FBG Dynasty top 32 which were also rookies after 2014), the only ones which started less than 25 college games are Kyler Murray 6.80. 17 gms & 3, T. Lance 6.47, 17 gms & 25, Mac Jones 6.33, 17 gms & 28, Fields 6.45, 22 gms & 13, Wentz 6.70, 23 gms & 23, Darnold 7.10, 24 gms & 27.
    
15. Looking at #14 above, it stands out Lance, Fields and Mac Jones are likely risky to be taken so early and it may be a stretch for more than one of them to be long-time starters in the NFL.
    

 

[Soulfly3]

I'm sorry but coming of college is the basis of this conversation then Lance is not even remotely close to Baker Mayfield.  I'm by no means a Baker fan and not a Browns fan.

it's why I had to walk. 

lance could very well have an excellent nfl career, no one knows that. but ONE year in college (which was 2 season ago), in a subpar at best conference, and pedestrian passing numbers... no. he isn't on the same planet out of college as baker.

 

[chinawildman]

it's why I had to walk. 

lance could very well have an excellent nfl career, no one knows that. but ONE year in college (which was 2 season ago), in a subpar at best conference, and pedestrian passing numbers... no. he isn't on the same planet out of college as baker.

I'm sorry but coming of college is the basis of this conversation then Lance is not even remotely close to Baker Mayfield.  I'm by no means a Baker fan and not a Browns fan.

Are you guys talking production or talent? The basis of this question was whether Lance is a better PROSPECT. I've been listing traits and you guys seem to be talking production. Apples to oranges convo thusfar.

 

[Soulfly3]

if physical traits are what actually mattered, the combine would settle draft position

 

[Anarchy99]

Another question I had about QB evaluation is how can people evaluate guys when PLAYER X played with elite talent as opposed to PLAYER Y that played with a much weaker supporting cast.

For example, Mac Jones looked great playing with a bunch of college all stars . . . but so did Tua Tagovailoa. 

Alabama players that were / will be drafted that played with Tua: WR Devonta Smith, WR Jaylen Waddle, WR Henry Riggs (12), WR Jerry Jeudy (15), WR Calvin Ridley (26), RB Najee Harris, RB Josh Jacobs (24), RB Damien Harris (87), RB Bo Scarborough (237), TE Irv Smith (50), 4 OL.

Or Joe Burrow: WR Ja'Marr Chase, WR Terrace Marshall, WR Justin Jefferson (22), RB Clyde Edwards-Hillaire (32), TE Stephen Sullivan (251), TE Foster Moreau (137), 4 OL.

Now compare that to someone like Dak Prescott: RB Josh Robinson (205), TE Malcolm Johnson (195), 1 OL. That clearly tells an entirely different story talent wise than Tua or Burrow.

 

[Ilov80s]

if physical traits are what actually mattered, the combine would settle draft position

I think when people talk about traits they are talking football traits, not just athletic traits. Lance is obviously a risk for every reason you've laid out but he physically has all the tools. There is a little bit of the Josh Allen effect here. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Another question I had about QB evaluation is how can people evaluate guys when PLAYER X played with elite talent as opposed to PLAYER Y that played with a much weaker supporting cast.

For example, Mac Jones looked great playing with a bunch of college all stars . . . but so did Tua Tagovailoa. 

Alabama players that were / will be drafted that played with Tua: WR Devonta Smith, WR Jaylen Waddle, WR Henry Riggs (12), WR Jerry Jeudy (15), WR Calvin Ridley (26), RB Najee Harris, RB Josh Jacobs (24), RB Damien Harris (87), RB Bo Scarborough (237), TE Irv Smith (50), 4 OL.

Or Joe Burrow: WR Ja'Marr Chase, WR Terrace Marshall, WR Justin Jefferson (22), RB Clyde Edwards-Hillaire (32), TE Stephen Sullivan (251), TE Foster Moreau (137), 4 OL.

Now compare that to someone like Dak Prescott: RB Josh Robinson (205), TE Malcolm Johnson (195), 1 OL. That clearly tells an entirely different story talent wise than Tua or Burrow.

Also lots of offenses trying to do different things and we often don't know what exactly the offense was even asking of the QB. Tough evaluations for sure. 

 

[Soulfly3]

this thread came up during one of my searches....

what a sensational 2 pages. some of my best work as well. but this draft class stunk pretty hard, didn't it?

 

[Snotbubbles]

there's not much interesting about ranking several players above lance.

dying to know how many 1st rnd QBs have had only ONE 300yd passing game in college (in a bum conference, no less). im willing to say he'd be the only one ever

Cam Newton is another with only one 300 yard game and went first overall.

Anthony Richardson...so close to being in this group.

 

[Soulfly3]

there's not much interesting about ranking several players above lance.

dying to know how many 1st rnd QBs have had only ONE 300yd passing game in college (in a bum conference, no less). im willing to say he'd be the only one ever

Cam Newton is another with only one 300 yard game and went first overall.

Anthony Richardson...so close to being in this group.

Another one w an insane risk of busting... And yet MILES above Lance out of college for me