Quantitative analysis question (1 Viewer)

[kal-el]

I'm in a league that allows two keepers per year. If you keep one player you lose your first round pick; if you keep two players you lose your first two picks. For the most part, then, the draft tends to look like your standard redraft league draft. The exception is young running backs--rookies in particular--which tend to go higher due to their potential to become top 10 backs next year and have considerable keeper value.

I suspect there must be at least a few other leagues out there--not full dynasty leagues, but leagues that do allow a limited number of keepers. My question is this: Has anyone developed a quantitative method for determining how high a younger RB can/should be taken?

Example: Laurence Mauroney. His ADP right now in redraft leagues is in roughly the 8th round. In a league like mine, however, there's a good chance that by next year he could be the starting RB in one of the league's most consistent offense. How would you determine how much higher Mauroney could/should be drafted to account for this possibility? My intuitive judgement is that this additional value is considerable, given that the largest VBD amounts are for the top 5/10 RBs.

Obviously, any methodology would have to be based on a number of assumptions, but as with anything else in the realm of fantasy football, you have to make some implicit judgement so it might as well be as well-thought-out as possible.

Thoughts? Ideas?

 

[Z-Dog]

Let the rest of the league bump young guys up their draft boards. You should not. Focus on getting good value out of your picks - you guys aren't keeping enough players to be bumping the value of rookie RBs. Scoop up guys like Fitzgerald and Chad Johnson while your team is fishing for Deangelo Williams and Joseph Addai.

 

[The Jerk]

Let the rest of the league bump young guys up their draft boards. You should not. Focus on getting good value out of your picks - you guys aren't keeping enough players to be bumping the value of rookie RBs. Scoop up guys like Fitzgerald and Chad Johnson while your team is fishing for Deangelo Williams and Joseph Addai.

Good advice. When only a couple dozen players are kept, they all can't be RBs. Plus, I'm pretty sure there will be rookie RBs next year, and the year after that, etc.Different story if it's a league with 8+ keepers...

 

[Bad Mutha]

I'm in a 12-team keep 5 league entering our 10th season and the same thing happens virtually every year at the draft. At least 1/2 of the first round picks will be rookie RBs and virtually all of the rookies with big potential (regardless of position) will be gone by the end of the 2nd or early 3rd.

We draft this Saturday and I'll be shocked if 5 of the first 6 picks aren't rookie RBs.

I know that doesn't really answer your question but at least it gives you an idea about the market in a similar league.

 

[The Jerk]

I'm in a 12-team keep 5 league entering our 10th season and the same thing happens virtually every year at the draft. At least 1/2 of the first round picks will be rookie RBs and virtually all of the rookies with big potential (regardless of position) will be gone by the end of the 2nd or early 3rd.We draft this Saturday and I'll be shocked if 5 of the first 6 picks aren't rookie RBs.I know that doesn't really answer your question but at least it gives you an idea about the market in a similar league.

I still see a big difference between a keep 2 league and a keep 5 league, but maybe you're right on this.

 

[kal-el]

Let the rest of the league bump young guys up their draft boards. You should not. Focus on getting good value out of your picks - you guys aren't keeping enough players to be bumping the value of rookie RBs. Scoop up guys like Fitzgerald and Chad Johnson while your team is fishing for Deangelo Williams and Joseph Addai.

Allow me to play devil's advocate: The guy who drafted Larry Johnson last year got him in the fifth round. He now potentially has a top 5 RB for the next 5-8 years. While it's obviously harder to predict something like this looking forward rather than backward, clearly there is some significant value in drafting young RBs with that kind of potential under a limited keeper format. The question is: How much value? I agree you shouldn't take Maroney in the 3rd round. If someone else does, fine; I'll take a top WR. But it also seems reasonable that he's worth more than an 8th rounder. I'm just trying to think through how to determine how much more valuable he is.If I were to never take a young RB above his redraft ADP, I'd be more than likely preventing myself from ever obtaining a Tomlinson or LJ.

Maybe doing a weighted average between FBG redraft rankings and dynasty rankings would be a good way to start looking at this?

 

[Brunswick]

Let the rest of the league bump young guys up their draft boards. You should not. Focus on getting good value out of your picks - you guys aren't keeping enough players to be bumping the value of rookie RBs. Scoop up guys like Fitzgerald and Chad Johnson while your team is fishing for Deangelo Williams and Joseph Addai.

Allow me to play devil's advocate: The guy who drafted Larry Johnson last year got him in the fifth round. He now potentially has a top 5 RB for the next 5-8 years. While it's obviously harder to predict something like this looking forward rather than backward, clearly there is some significant value in drafting young RBs with that kind of potential under a limited keeper format. The question is: How much value? I agree you shouldn't take Maroney in the 3rd round. If someone else does, fine; I'll take a top WR. But it also seems reasonable that he's worth more than an 8th rounder. I'm just trying to think through how to determine how much more valuable he is.If I were to never take a young RB above his redraft ADP, I'd be more than likely preventing myself from ever obtaining a Tomlinson or LJ.

Maybe doing a weighted average between FBG redraft rankings and dynasty rankings would be a good way to start looking at this?

I think it might depend on who your keepers were this year. Are they young studs or older. If you think one of the rookie RB's will be a better choice for next year I would consider moving him up. But of course by taking rookies early you pretty much [put yourself behind the 8 ball for this year

 

[The Jerk]

I think it might depend on who your keepers were this year. Are they young studs or older. If you think one of the rookie RB's will be a better choice for next year I would consider moving him up. But of course by taking rookies early you pretty much [put yourself behind the 8 ball for this year

Always the question in a keeper league though? Short-term vs. long-term gratification.

 

[GregR_2]

Let the rest of the league bump young guys up their draft boards. You should not. Focus on getting good value out of your picks - you guys aren't keeping enough players to be bumping the value of rookie RBs. Scoop up guys like Fitzgerald and Chad Johnson while your team is fishing for Deangelo Williams and Joseph Addai.

Allow me to play devil's advocate: The guy who drafted Larry Johnson last year got him in the fifth round. He now potentially has a top 5 RB for the next 5-8 years. While it's obviously harder to predict something like this looking forward rather than backward, clearly there is some significant value in drafting young RBs with that kind of potential under a limited keeper format. The question is: How much value? I agree you shouldn't take Maroney in the 3rd round. If someone else does, fine; I'll take a top WR. But it also seems reasonable that he's worth more than an 8th rounder. I'm just trying to think through how to determine how much more valuable he is.If I were to never take a young RB above his redraft ADP, I'd be more than likely preventing myself from ever obtaining a Tomlinson or LJ.

Maybe doing a weighted average between FBG redraft rankings and dynasty rankings would be a good way to start looking at this?

Allow me to play devil's advocate to your devil's advocate. Of the uber elite RBs of the last half decade, Edge, LT, and Portis would have been guys who if you took them as rookies, you would have without a doubt held on to and had for the duration of their careers.

LJ, SA, Faulk, Priest, Ahman, Jamal, Ricky you would not have identified them as an uber elite, and in some cases (LJ, SA, Ahman, Priest, Jamal) you wouldn't have even kept them between their rookies seasons and when they hit elite, if you could only keep 2 players.

So that's 3 out of 10 that the strategy would have worked if you knew in advance who would at some point in their career put up uber stats. But you don't. You're also going to have the Stephen Jacksons, A-trains, Ducketts, William Greens, Ron Daynes, etc.

I think by the time you take into account how many veterans you passed on to bump up a rookie, you'd have been better off mostly going with your predictions for that year and not giving a huge amount of weight to the rookies.

There may be the occasional guy worth taking a shot at. Reggie Bush and Adrian Peterson being two possible such names, but even then I think you're only helping your odds a bit, it still isn't a sure thing by any means.

 

[kal-el]

Let the rest of the league bump young guys up their draft boards. You should not. Focus on getting good value out of your picks - you guys aren't keeping enough players to be bumping the value of rookie RBs. Scoop up guys like Fitzgerald and Chad Johnson while your team is fishing for Deangelo Williams and Joseph Addai.

Allow me to play devil's advocate: The guy who drafted Larry Johnson last year got him in the fifth round. He now potentially has a top 5 RB for the next 5-8 years. While it's obviously harder to predict something like this looking forward rather than backward, clearly there is some significant value in drafting young RBs with that kind of potential under a limited keeper format. The question is: How much value? I agree you shouldn't take Maroney in the 3rd round. If someone else does, fine; I'll take a top WR. But it also seems reasonable that he's worth more than an 8th rounder. I'm just trying to think through how to determine how much more valuable he is.If I were to never take a young RB above his redraft ADP, I'd be more than likely preventing myself from ever obtaining a Tomlinson or LJ.

Maybe doing a weighted average between FBG redraft rankings and dynasty rankings would be a good way to start looking at this?

I think it might depend on who your keepers were this year. Are they young studs or older. If you think one of the rookie RB's will be a better choice for next year I would consider moving him up. But of course by taking rookies early you pretty much [put yourself behind the 8 ball for this year

I think that's definitely a factor. Mine are S. Jackson and R. Brown--so I should probably be less concerned about drafting a rookie RB--but I'd rather keep this discussion more theoretical to apply to a number of similar leagues/situations.I took the top 40 RBs under the current FBG redraft and dynasty rankings, threw out the one back on each list that didn't appear on the other, and weighted the redraft rankings 2/3 and the dynasty rankings 1/3. The weights are based on the idea that RB would have to be in about the top 13 to have keeper value (and we know there's a fair amount of turnover in RB rankings from year to year). I won't post the complete results since the rankings are subscriber-only info., but the results look pretty reasonable to me. Maroney and Williams move ahead of back like Fred Taylor, Ahman Green, and Corey Dillon--veterans who are nominal starters but also carry a fair amount of risk from injury/deterioration/etc. They stay below guys like Thomas Jones and DeShaun Foster--slightly younger/less injury-prone backs in less-than-deal situations.

For a 5-keeper league, I think you could justify inverting the weights: 1/3 for redraft and 2/3 for dynasty. Now Maroney and Williams jump over the Jones/Foster tier and are just behind Julius Jones and Willie Parker--guys who are young and established but maybe have slightly less pure talent than Maroney/Williams.

That a start, I guess.

 

[kal-el]

Let the rest of the league bump young guys up their draft boards. You should not. Focus on getting good value out of your picks - you guys aren't keeping enough players to be bumping the value of rookie RBs. Scoop up guys like Fitzgerald and Chad Johnson while your team is fishing for Deangelo Williams and Joseph Addai.

Allow me to play devil's advocate: The guy who drafted Larry Johnson last year got him in the fifth round. He now potentially has a top 5 RB for the next 5-8 years. While it's obviously harder to predict something like this looking forward rather than backward, clearly there is some significant value in drafting young RBs with that kind of potential under a limited keeper format. The question is: How much value? I agree you shouldn't take Maroney in the 3rd round. If someone else does, fine; I'll take a top WR. But it also seems reasonable that he's worth more than an 8th rounder. I'm just trying to think through how to determine how much more valuable he is.If I were to never take a young RB above his redraft ADP, I'd be more than likely preventing myself from ever obtaining a Tomlinson or LJ.

Maybe doing a weighted average between FBG redraft rankings and dynasty rankings would be a good way to start looking at this?

Allow me to play devil's advocate to your devil's advocate. Of the uber elite RBs of the last half decade, Edge, LT, and Portis would have been guys who if you took them as rookies, you would have without a doubt held on to and had for the duration of their careers.

LJ, SA, Faulk, Priest, Ahman, Jamal, Ricky you would not have identified them as an uber elite, and in some cases (LJ, SA, Ahman, Priest, Jamal) you wouldn't have even kept them between their rookies seasons and when they hit elite, if you could only keep 2 players.

So that's 3 out of 10 that the strategy would have worked if you knew in advance who would at some point in their career put up uber stats. But you don't. You're also going to have the Stephen Jacksons, A-trains, Ducketts, William Greens, Ron Daynes, etc.

I think by the time you take into account how many veterans you passed on to bump up a rookie, you'd have been better off mostly going with your predictions for that year and not giving a huge amount of weight to the rookies.

There may be the occasional guy worth taking a shot at. Reggie Bush and Adrian Peterson being two possible such names, but even then I think you're only helping your odds a bit, it still isn't a sure thing by any means.

Agree you can't look just at rookies. I'm talking about RBs who are (1) relatively young (first 1-3 years in league), (2) not the clear #1 starter, but (3) have a decent outlook for becoming the starter over the next year. That would have applied to LJ last year. It applies to a guy like Benson this year; his ADP is about 50 right now; I think you could justify a slightly higher draft position based on the potential he becomes the clear #1 guy by the beginning of next year.