Questions about the top 250 forward (1 Viewer)

[SSOG]

What's the deal with Randy's huge drop in the top 250 forward? The only thing that's changed since last week is that he no longer has a bye week ahead of him (which should make him *MORE* valuable, because he plays in 14 more games, while 87.5% of the WRs left only play in 13), and yet Randy dropped almost 30 spots.

Shouldn't Randy have gotten a BOOST after the bye week? Is there some sort of news update that I've been missing here?

I also noticed that LaDanian Tomlinson's value hasn't increased by a single point, and Larry Johnson's actually DECREASED by 40 points. That's another thing I don't get- this is the top 250 *FORWARD*, and going FORWARD, Tomlinson/Johnson are going to play ONE FULL GAME more than 87.5% of the other RBs in the league. Wouldn't the fact that they essentially getting an extra game mean that they should be worth more now that they're off their byes? I mean, I'd *much* rather have 13 games of Tomlinson/Johnson than 12 games of Rudi (assuming no games on week 17), although the difference between Tomlinson and Rudi is actually SMALLER this week than it was last week (Tomlinson should have an 8.5% increase in relative value, because he has 8.5% more games left to play).

Thanks for the time.

 

[Shiggy Shaol]

I PM'd Dodds about the post bye-week effect this morning but haven't heard anything yet.

 

[AB in DC]

This has almost been the biggest flaw in the Top 250 Forward, IMHO.

At the very least, he should put an asterisk next to players that have already had their bye week and should be upgraded for that reason.

 

[moleculo]

just a guess, but maybe its based on a "per game" basis?

 

[#@%&$!?]

FBG staff: you know how you had the "Projection Tweaks: - Explanation of Offensive Player Movement" earlier in the year? That would be useful for the weekly 250 going forward.

 

[bkerney]

just a guess, but maybe its based on a "per game" basis?

I'm curious about this too. Don't see the reason for the big drop from last week.

 

[Shiggy Shaol]

just a guess, but maybe its based on a "per game" basis?

The last column of the Top 250 Forward is "Trade Value" and the player is assigned a number. I don't know how that's calculated and don't particularly care.But it stands to reason that the Trade Value of a player who has passed his bye week should go up, right?

 

[jonessed]

It may have to do with changes in the rankings of the defenses they face.

 

[baronson]

whatever it is, i think its pretty clear that the value (and therefore the ranking) are the product of a pretty flawed calculation. i don't think any reasonable human being would trade Antonio Gates for Lamont Jordan, yet there they are, sitting next to each other at #47 & #48... two spots behind Muhsin Muhammad (???).

honestly, i don't even look at the thing other than for a moments amusement. i think it fluctuates way too much week-to-week and emphasizes the last game far too much. there is a ton of more useful info on FBG to utilze than to kill time figuring out why so-and-so is ranked wherever.

reference it in trade negotiations if it helps you. otherwise, ignore it. just my opinion.

 

[bigliebdogg]

just a guess, but maybe its based on a "per game" basis?

The last column of the Top 250 Forward is "Trade Value" and the player is assigned a number. I don't know how that's calculated and don't particularly care.But it stands to reason that the Trade Value of a player who has passed his bye week should go up, right?

I do care. When evaluating any trade, I like to add up the trade value numbers from the Top 250 Forward to get an idea which side has the edge.Why can't the Football Guys put out a quick document on how these values are calculated...perhaps even a customizable Top 250 similar to the custom cheatsheets where you can put in your league's scoring system and get a customized Top 250. I would expect RBs like Westbrook's and Bush's trade value in a PPR league would be higher than in a non-PPR.Doesn't seem like it would too hard for them to do this, and it seem like people including myself are always asking for it, maybe i'm wrong, maybe it is harder than i think

 

[-OZ-]

It may have to do with changes in the rankings of the defenses they face.

The defenses didn't change. Did they suddenly get that much better?

 

[-OZ-]

I do care. When evaluating any trade, I like to add up the trade value numbers from the Top 250 Forward to get an idea which side has the edge.

How many people actually use this? I'm in a league with a few of the staffers and they don't use it there. (different rules)

 

[jonessed]

It may have to do with changes in the rankings of the defenses they face.

The defenses didn't change. Did they suddenly get that much better?

The defenses are re-evaluated based on their previous weeks performance so their rankings would have changed at the same time the offensive players rankings change.

 

[joffer]

I also noticed that LaDanian Tomlinson's value hasn't increased by a single point, and Larry Johnson's actually DECREASED by 40 points. That's another thing I don't get- this is the top 250 *FORWARD*, and going FORWARD, Tomlinson/Johnson are going to play ONE FULL GAME more than 87.5% of the other RBs in the league. Wouldn't the fact that they essentially getting an extra game mean that they should be worth more now that they're off their byes? I mean, I'd *much* rather have 13 games of Tomlinson/Johnson than 12 games of Rudi (assuming no games on week 17), although the difference between Tomlinson and Rudi is actually SMALLER this week than it was last week (Tomlinson should have an 8.5% increase in relative value, because he has 8.5% more games left to play).

good questions. i'm curious how the bye weeks affect this as well

 

[Shiggy Shaol]

I do care. When evaluating any trade, I like to add up the trade value numbers from the Top 250 Forward to get an idea which side has the edge.

How many people actually use this? I'm in a league with a few of the staffers and they don't use it there. (different rules)

I could be very wrong but isn't the Trade Dominator based on these values?

 

[JayMan]

What's the deal with Randy's huge drop in the top 250 forward? The only thing that's changed since last week is that he no longer has a bye week ahead of him (which should make him *MORE* valuable, because he plays in 14 more games, while 87.5% of the WRs left only play in 13), and yet Randy dropped almost 30 spots.

I'm with you on this one SSOG... the only explanation I can think of (pure speculation on my part - and I wouldn't bet anything on it!) is that some uncertain guys that played last week had a good game and even though they will only be playing 12 games (against Moss's 13) the staff thinks that they offer better value because these players confirmed their status last week... Colston comes to mind...Like I said - I'm with you and don't think that explanation alone would let 30 guys move ahead of Moss... just an explanation as to why a player might not actualy improve his ranking coming of his bye week...

 

[timintey]

I'd say Javon Walker has too good a schedule from here on out to be at #64. Could be just me hoping though

 

[Hellfire Snail]

I'd say Javon Walker has too good a schedule from here on out to be at #64. Could be just me hoping though

Don't know what the criteria is, but if Walker is #64 then it is not rooted in reality.

 

[egg413]

I assumed it was because strength of schedule was taken into affect in the value of indivual players. If, for example, during the bye week of LT, the teams that San Diego will play later in the schedule showed a significant improvement in their Run Defense, it would affect LTs #'s going forward in a negative amount. How much depends on how the calculation takes that factor into account in it's formula....

Just my two cents, although I do agree with the nature of this post and would be interesting in understanding more deeply how the values are calculated.

 

[Keys Myaths]

I do care. When evaluating any trade, I like to add up the trade value numbers from the Top 250 Forward to get an idea which side has the edge.

How many people actually use this? I'm in a league with a few of the staffers and they don't use it there. (different rules)

I could be very wrong but isn't the Trade Dominator based on these values?

Yes.

 

[Keys Myaths]

I'd say Javon Walker has too good a schedule from here on out to be at #64. Could be just me hoping though

Don't know what the criteria is, but if Walker is #64 then it is not rooted in reality.

He's not WR64, he's 64th overall.Big difference. He'd be an early 6th rounder, which may be a little late, but it's about there.

 

[timintey]

I'd say Javon Walker has too good a schedule from here on out to be at #64. Could be just me hoping though

Don't know what the criteria is, but if Walker is #64 then it is not rooted in reality.

He's not WR64, he's 64th overall.Big difference. He'd be an early 6th rounder, which may be a little late, but it's about there.

I still think I'd have him ahead of Muhammad, Ward, Santana Moss and AJohnson. Also, Heap, Winslow, LJ Smithand Gonzo for that matter.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

What's the deal with Randy's huge drop in the top 250 forward? The only thing that's changed since last week is that he no longer has a bye week ahead of him (which should make him *MORE* valuable, because he plays in 14 more games, while 87.5% of the WRs left only play in 13), and yet Randy dropped almost 30 spots.

I'm with you on this one SSOG... the only explanation I can think of (pure speculation on my part - and I wouldn't bet anything on it!) is that some uncertain guys that played last week had a good game and even though they will only be playing 12 games (against Moss's 13) the staff thinks that they offer better value because these players confirmed their status last week... Colston comes to mind...Like I said - I'm with you and don't think that explanation alone would let 30 guys move ahead of Moss... just an explanation as to why a player might not actualy improve his ranking coming of his bye week...

 

[rascal]

I would like it if they would continue to have the staff rankings. Projectoins may be a bit much that would be nice as well.

 

[Hellfire Snail]

I'd say Javon Walker has too good a schedule from here on out to be at #64. Could be just me hoping though

Don't know what the criteria is, but if Walker is #64 then it is not rooted in reality.

He's not WR64, he's 64th overall.Big difference. He'd be an early 6th rounder, which may be a little late, but it's about there.

I still think I'd have him ahead of Muhammad, Ward, Santana Moss and AJohnson. Also, Heap, Winslow, LJ Smithand Gonzo for that matter.

 

[Jackal King]

After having an additional week to think about it....they realized that Randy at 13 was WAY too generous.

 

[Rounders]

My complaint about the top 250 is not knowing what scoring system it is based on.

I think that this would be a great feature to the LD. If you have already all the projections calculated going forward, it would be pretty sweet to get a league-tailored top 250.

 

[mtffl2]

I would like it if they would continue to have the staff rankings. Projectoins may be a bit much that would be nice as well.

I AGREE.... let all the staff members do a ranking and average the rankings like you did for us leading up to the draft.

 

[Keys Myaths]

I'd say Javon Walker has too good a schedule from here on out to be at #64. Could be just me hoping though

Don't know what the criteria is, but if Walker is #64 then it is not rooted in reality.

He's not WR64, he's 64th overall.Big difference. He'd be an early 6th rounder, which may be a little late, but it's about there.

I still think I'd have him ahead of Muhammad, Ward, Santana Moss and AJohnson. Also, Heap, Winslow, LJ Smithand Gonzo for that matter.

I don't disagree with you.The "not rooted in reality" comment was a little off, and I thought he didn't understand, so I tried to help.

 

[SSOG]

I assumed it was because strength of schedule was taken into affect in the value of indivual players. If, for example, during the bye week of LT, the teams that San Diego will play later in the schedule showed a significant improvement in their Run Defense, it would affect LTs #'s going forward in a negative amount. How much depends on how the calculation takes that factor into account in it's formula....Just my two cents, although I do agree with the nature of this post and would be interesting in understanding more deeply how the values are calculated.

It's not a strength of schedule thing. Tomlinson, LaMont Jordan, Larry Johnson, Tony Gonzalez, Eddie Kennison, Phillip Rivers, Marion Barber... all of these players' values remained within 30 points of their values last week.The only players whose values significantly changed were Julius Jones, Antonio Gates, and Randy Moss... and all three of those players saw a significant *DROP* in their values.I just have a hard time believing that every facet of every single defense that all 4 post-bye teams are going to face improved exactly enough to counteract the extra game advantage. In my mind, it's clearly an issue of not taking the bye into account at all, which to me is clearly an oversight. This isn't to rag on the footballguys, who put out a clearly superior product... this is just a little suggestion on my part of how they could make this product even better.

 

[Wingnut]

My complaint about the top 250 is not knowing what scoring system it is based on.

Ummm, FBG scoring?Im wondering why Brady jumped up 2 spots...if anything I think he would have DROPPED 2 spots.

 

[kal-el]

I'm curious about the methodology for the top 250, as well. I think it's potentially a very useful tool for making waivers decisions on Tuesday night.

On the other hand, the fact that it's released 24 hours after the MNF game makes me (1) suspect it can't be meticulously constructed/analyzed and (2) cut Dodds a break on apparent inconsistencies/etc.

 

[Bob Henry]

I can add some anecdotal comments here.. since I provide the "rest of year" projections for the Lineup Dominator. In developing those projections, I do take into account which teams have already had their bye weeks and project one *more* game for those specific teams/players.

Dodds and I discussed how this can affect the Top 250 Forward and that, naturally, those players would look like they are ranked "higher" than normal because of the extra game.

We didn't do that last year and realized it affects how the LD works and wanted to correct that so it's actually projected correctly and those stats are spread appropriately across the correct number of games remaining.

The Top 250 is something I use as a reference or guide in creating the Year Forward projections. However, they don't line up exactly.

HTH.

 

[Rounders]

My complaint about the top 250 is not knowing what scoring system it is based on.

Ummm, FBG scoring?Im wondering why Brady jumped up 2 spots...if anything I think he would have DROPPED 2 spots.

I knew that, but my point was more along the lines that many of us play in multiple leagues with different scoring systems.It would be nice to have a custom top 250 list with a click of the button in the LD, sort of an extension of the DD.

 

[Wingnut]

My complaint about the top 250 is not knowing what scoring system it is based on.

Ummm, FBG scoring?Im wondering why Brady jumped up 2 spots...if anything I think he would have DROPPED 2 spots.

I knew that, but my point was more along the lines that many of us play in multiple leagues with different scoring systems.It would be nice to have a custom top 250 list with a click of the button in the LD, sort of an extension of the DD.

Gotchya.Thats why the top 250 forward and the FBG rankings are pretty much useless to me, as my scoring system is vastly different than FBGs. I like to look just to see for craps and giggles. The easiest example: no way is Vick a top 10 QB in my system. He was QB 15 in my league last year. That said, its still interesting to see who they are high on going forward, even if its not the same scoring system.

 

[Rounders]

My complaint about the top 250 is not knowing what scoring system it is based on.

Ummm, FBG scoring?Im wondering why Brady jumped up 2 spots...if anything I think he would have DROPPED 2 spots.

I knew that, but my point was more along the lines that many of us play in multiple leagues with different scoring systems.It would be nice to have a custom top 250 list with a click of the button in the LD, sort of an extension of the DD.

Gotchya.Thats why the top 250 forward and the FBG rankings are pretty much useless to me, as my scoring system is vastly different than FBGs. I like to look just to see for craps and giggles. The easiest example: no way is Vick a top 10 QB in my system. He was QB 15 in my league last year. That said, its still interesting to see who they are high on going forward, even if its not the same scoring system.

I mean I'm not claming to be a know-it-all, but if the YTD projections are updated each week, and the LD has our league requirements (starting lineup and scoring system), it seems pretty logical that those two could be combined to give an accurate ranking lists, no?Maybe I will forward to Henderson and get his thoughts.

 

[Bob Henry]

My complaint about the top 250 is not knowing what scoring system it is based on.

Ummm, FBG scoring?Im wondering why Brady jumped up 2 spots...if anything I think he would have DROPPED 2 spots.

I knew that, but my point was more along the lines that many of us play in multiple leagues with different scoring systems.It would be nice to have a custom top 250 list with a click of the button in the LD, sort of an extension of the DD.

Gotchya.Thats why the top 250 forward and the FBG rankings are pretty much useless to me, as my scoring system is vastly different than FBGs. I like to look just to see for craps and giggles. The easiest example: no way is Vick a top 10 QB in my system. He was QB 15 in my league last year. That said, its still interesting to see who they are high on going forward, even if its not the same scoring system.

For what you want, you should use the LD and not the Top 250... if your league uses FBG scoring then the Top 250 is fine for that, but ultimately the LD is the best tool because it allows you to enter YOUR scoring system into the application and get the results you seek.

 

[SSOG]

I can add some anecdotal comments here.. since I provide the "rest of year" projections for the Lineup Dominator. In developing those projections, I do take into account which teams have already had their bye weeks and project one *more* game for those specific teams/players. Dodds and I discussed how this can affect the Top 250 Forward and that, naturally, those players would look like they are ranked "higher" than normal because of the extra game.We didn't do that last year and realized it affects how the LD works and wanted to correct that so it's actually projected correctly and those stats are spread appropriately across the correct number of games remaining.The Top 250 is something I use as a reference or guide in creating the Year Forward projections. However, they don't line up exactly.HTH.

Thanks for weighing in, Bob! It's good to hear that, in the lineup dominator at least, the bye factor is counted.From the sounds of it, Dodds is aware that there is a potential issue with not boosting players who have already had their bye, but refrains from doing it anyway because it might cause the 250 forward numbers to look out of whack (i.e. some players would be rated ahead of someone who might do better on a per-game basis just because they have an extra game left ahead of them?). Interesting. I don't know that I agree with it, but it's definitely an interesting reason. Obviously players are discounted if they're going to be missing time (see Alexander, Shaun). I just don't think that the top 250 forward should distinguish between whether that missed time will be the result of an injury, or whether it will be the result of a bye. A missed week is a missed week, so to speak.

 

[The Rook]

Not wanting to hijack, but what do you guys use to try to assign value to players when trading? I do glance at the top 250 forward as a litmus test for me when considering trades...