Rankings keep flipping (1 Viewer)

[Terpfan]

I need LB help so I am constantly looking at the projections to see when it makes sense to upgrade. I rely on these because I have never done IDP before and I have much more confidence you guys. In our league, I would say 3 out of the top 5 LB each week (looking forward) are always available. And it always seems that my guy goes from #1 going forward to #10. There seems to be a lot of fluctuation in the rankings going forward. Is this normal for IDP, or is it just my luck that the hot guy goes cold when I get him?

For example, I grabbed Mike Peterson a couple weeks ago when he was projected #1. Now he is #10. Is there some systemic reason for this devaluation? Jon Beason was ranked #1-2 for a couple weeks and now this week he is #8, so I am glad I did not grab him last week. Is this devalue related to indications Morgan coming back soon? This week EJ jumps into the #1 slot and I dont remember him being in the top 5 recently. Is this just because Minn offense sucks? Ruud seems to always be about #4-5 in projections, but is actually #2 scorer in our league. Is all this fluctuation normal?

If so, should I consider future week projections as unstable? I am trying to find a pair of guys that are reliable point getters for the next 6 weeks and try a LB by Cmte approach. If those projections are changing so much week to week, I may just be shooting myself in the foot. Waiver wire pickups are too expensive to play week to week matchups.

Any help explaining these IDP projections would be greatly appreciated. In another message I will ask for advice on the particular choices I have for LB free agents. FYI, our league is simply 2 pts solo tackle, 4 pts sack, 2 turnover, 6 TD.

Mike

PS. As a Terp fan I am hoping you are right about EJ going forward.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Fluctuation is a relative term. In leagues that start few IDPs, the difference between the #1 and #10 overall LB may be very significant. In leagues that start multiple players per position, both of those players are just LB1s and the difference is relatively minimal. And I'll make my favorite point with regard to projections and rankings. You should be paying the least attention to the leftmost column. The raw ranking number is the least reliable number on the sheet, but unfortuantely the nature of the beast. For example, in FBG scoring, the #3 and #10 players are separated by a single fantasy point -- less than a solo tackle. For all intents and purposes, there's no difference there.

Matchups with IDPs, like offensive players, provide fluctuating opportunities every week. I'm sure you'd find that a player like Frank Gore might be #3 one week against a poor rush defense and #11 the next against a top rush defense. Similar things happen with every position. One week look-ins are always going to be highly volatile. The eight players in the above weekly tier are also very different. Some are projected with a higher big play percentage, some are projected with more tackles. Those percentages are nearly impossible to hit. I'd consider those "ranked" highly on the basis of tackles more stable than the others in nearly every case.

Since you aren't looking to play matchups, you probably shouldn't be paying much attention to the weekly cheatsheets at all. The forward cheatsheets will become less valuable to you with each passing week, since each week that passes introduces more volatility to the forward rankings.

You should be targeting players with the best talent that are likely to have the most consistent opportunity for the remainder of the year. Hopefully, we'll be able to discuss and identify two solid options in your coming AC thread.

 

[Terpfan]

Fluctuation is a relative term. In leagues that start few IDPs, the difference between the #1 and #10 overall LB may be very significant. In leagues that start multiple players per position, both of those players are just LB1s and the difference is relatively minimal. And I'll make my favorite point with regard to projections and rankings. You should be paying the least attention to the leftmost column. The raw ranking number is the least reliable number on the sheet, but unfortuantely the nature of the beast. For example, in FBG scoring, the #3 and #10 players are separated by a single fantasy point -- less than a solo tackle. For all intents and purposes, there's no difference there. Matchups with IDPs, like offensive players, provide fluctuating opportunities every week. I'm sure you'd find that a player like Frank Gore might be #3 one week against a poor rush defense and #11 the next against a top rush defense. Similar things happen with every position. One week look-ins are always going to be highly volatile. The eight players in the above weekly tier are also very different. Some are projected with a higher big play percentage, some are projected with more tackles. Those percentages are nearly impossible to hit. I'd consider those "ranked" highly on the basis of tackles more stable than the others in nearly every case.Since you aren't looking to play matchups, you probably shouldn't be paying much attention to the weekly cheatsheets at all. The forward cheatsheets will become less valuable to you with each passing week, since each week that passes introduces more volatility to the forward rankings.You should be targeting players with the best talent that are likely to have the most consistent opportunity for the remainder of the year. Hopefully, we'll be able to discuss and identify two solid options in your coming AC thread.

Thanks for the insight. Each team has only one IDP and with our scoring, that usually means LB is the position I am looking at. I have already learned to look at the points instead of the rank, but sometimes I do get lazy. Your insight about tackles making for more stable projections is the type of advice I need with this new IDP stuff. When I wondered how I would know how these rankings are done, I was suddenly reminded that I can see that in LD in the Setup. This is a good feature I had forgotten about and it will help me with all my positions. You have an interesting point about forward being more volatile as the weeks pass. I figure your projections for this week are much better than any projections for future weeks. So it would seem as those weeks get closer those forward projections get more accurate.Thanks again from this IDP rookie.