rankings? (1 Viewer)

[yak rider]

being a new subscriber i was wondering how much weight and consideration i should use in the different rankings used on the football guys.

for example i followed the weekly projections in regard to who to start in the steeler/titan game and i sat suggs in favor of vanden bosch and got one and a half points. since all my db's were rated higher than polamalu by far benched him and he tore it up for the half he was in????????

on the other hand if used the pre draft year projections both of these players would have started and vb would have been benched. is this just a blip on the radar or am i puttiiing too much empahsis on the weekly projections?

i ask because of the weekly projections have me sitting rhodes,payne and lewis and playing bigby and butler? if i use the pre draft or current rankings then bigby and butler sit and rhodes and payne playe. i have similar issues with linebackers.

any input from experienced football guy users? should i just consider the vandenb and pola thing blips and continue using the weekly advice or should i use the year long rankings? i plan on using these picks as am paying to use this expertise as oppose to picking on my own.

thanks

 

[RommelDAK]

I've been doing IDP since 1990, and I am a huge FootballGuys fan. But, I don't treat their forecasts as anything other than one more element in my weekly forecast. To me, their forecasts--and don't get me wrong, I would happily pay even more money than we do to get them--are interesting, but I don't let them dictate to me who to start. If they disagree with my personal view, I use that as a heads up to double check my view, but not necessarily change it; if they agree with me, it gives me greater confidence.

That's how I use the forecasts, anyway.

 

[The Man With No Name]

You should be set up in MyFBG and have your league scoring system in there and look at projections, not site rankings. The more you know your players and the teams offense that they are playing should help you in deciding who to play. It does me.

 

[Jene Bramel]

being a new subscriber i was wondering how much weight and consideration i should use in the different rankings used on the football guys.for example i followed the weekly projections in regard to who to start in the steeler/titan game and i sat suggs in favor of vanden bosch and got one and a half points. since all my db's were rated higher than polamalu by far benched him and he tore it up for the half he was in????????on the other hand if used the pre draft year projections both of these players would have started and vb would have been benched. is this just a blip on the radar or am i puttiiing too much empahsis on the weekly projections?i ask because of the weekly projections have me sitting rhodes,payne and lewis and playing bigby and butler? if i use the pre draft or current rankings then bigby and butler sit and rhodes and payne playe. i have similar issues with linebackers. any input from experienced football guy users? should i just consider the vandenb and pola thing blips and continue using the weekly advice or should i use the year long rankings? i plan on using these picks as am paying to use this expertise as oppose to picking on my own. thanks

Two clerical things first. The inseason weekly projections are best used as part of the MyFBG function, customized to your scoring system. Even subtle changes between the FBG default and your scoring system can make a significant difference in the rankings of some players since John uses a fractional projection for all but tackle stats. Also, the projections often bunch up significantly between certain ranges at each position. Two linebackers may be "ranked" 16 and 34 by raw projection, but may be no more than a solo and assisted tackle or fraction of a sack apart in your scoring system. I know John tries to work some measure of a confidence ranking into the projections, but it's very difficult when you're ranking nearly every player on a defense.If I were a subscriber, I think I'd approach things the following way. I'd have a rough idea of what I expect from my rostered players based on the preseason projections and rankings. For example, I drafted DL X thinking he'd be a matchup-independent DL1 or grabbed LB C thinking he'd be a swing LB3/4 starter to be used in better matchups only. Early in the season, I'd stick to those rough guesses unless something pushed me another way.I'd do three things with your subscription when making a close lineup decision. Before consulting the site, enter your lineup on your first instincts, taking into consideration whatever your matchup thoughts may be. If you're not comfortable with your decision, I'd consider three other things.1. Check Norton's projections. John has a large database of numbers (historical and seasonal) that he relies on to make his projections. He knows about how many solo and assisted tackles a team is likely to get, he's got a running database of how each teams players are dividing their tackles and he relies on Doug Drinen's matchup analyzer to see how other defenses divide their tackle up against each offense. There's significant variability in the 40-55 opportunities a week sample size and some gut feel involved based on new injuries, other trends, etc. But, while I'm clearly biased here, I've been around John for nearly 15 years and think is judgment and detail is very good. If he's projecting someone significantly differently than you've expected, look for a reason why. You may still feel you're right (and be right ). 2. Check the Thursday Matchup Spreadsheet. This tool won't be humming at full strength until we get a few games into the season, but it's an excellent look at how many tackle opportunities a defense has had, how many tackle opportunities an offense is allowing, whether the opps are run or pass heavy, etc. It may confirm or call into question your first thought about a given matchup.3. Check Drinen's Matchup Anaylzer tool (linked on the site map tab and in a pinned topic in the AC Forum). That tool allows you to check how every OLB has done against X offense in Y season. You may find that the matchup sheet suggested that a team is a poor matchup, but that John's projected a guy highly anyway. That may be because there's something about the offensive matchup that favors a given position.Having written all of that, you may be thinking that this is going to be overwhelming and paralysis by over-analysis. And you may be right. In which case, I've two suggestions. First, get as many studs as you can on your roster at the expense of your depth and don't worry about it any more. I'm only being somewhat facetious there. Second, just go with your gut. Once you get a handle on many of your players and get used to judging matchups, your first instinct will very often be right.Doing a post-mortem on the Polamalu and VDB situations could be another long discussion. In general, variability and volatility are the rule, not the exception, at the DL and DB positions. I'm not sure I agree with the VDB over Suggs call, and the difference in the projections was significant on a numerical basis, though maybe not outside a margin of error. The Titans sacked Roethlisberger four times and hit him on many others. Had the Steelers chosen to double team the DTs rather than chip VDB or brought a fifth pass rusher in the second half, VDBs line could have looked much different. If you're interested in going through the process with those DBs (and LBs), post a thread in the AC forum with matchups (and the projections if you want) and I'll be happy to provide a second opinion.

 

[Liquid Tension]

being a new subscriber i was wondering how much weight and consideration i should use in the different rankings used on the football guys.for example i followed the weekly projections in regard to who to start in the steeler/titan game and i sat suggs in favor of vanden bosch and got one and a half points. since all my db's were rated higher than polamalu by far benched him and he tore it up for the half he was in????????on the other hand if used the pre draft year projections both of these players would have started and vb would have been benched. is this just a blip on the radar or am i puttiiing too much empahsis on the weekly projections?i ask because of the weekly projections have me sitting rhodes,payne and lewis and playing bigby and butler? if i use the pre draft or current rankings then bigby and butler sit and rhodes and payne playe. i have similar issues with linebackers. any input from experienced football guy users? should i just consider the vandenb and pola thing blips and continue using the weekly advice or should i use the year long rankings? i plan on using these picks as am paying to use this expertise as oppose to picking on my own. thanks

Two clerical things first. The inseason weekly projections are best used as part of the MyFBG function, customized to your scoring system. Even subtle changes between the FBG default and your scoring system can make a significant difference in the rankings of some players since John uses a fractional projection for all but tackle stats. Also, the projections often bunch up significantly between certain ranges at each position. Two linebackers may be "ranked" 16 and 34 by raw projection, but may be no more than a solo and assisted tackle or fraction of a sack apart in your scoring system. I know John tries to work some measure of a confidence ranking into the projections, but it's very difficult when you're ranking nearly every player on a defense.If I were a subscriber, I think I'd approach things the following way. I'd have a rough idea of what I expect from my rostered players based on the preseason projections and rankings. For example, I drafted DL X thinking he'd be a matchup-independent DL1 or grabbed LB C thinking he'd be a swing LB3/4 starter to be used in better matchups only. Early in the season, I'd stick to those rough guesses unless something pushed me another way.I'd do three things with your subscription when making a close lineup decision. Before consulting the site, enter your lineup on your first instincts, taking into consideration whatever your matchup thoughts may be. If you're not comfortable with your decision, I'd consider three other things.1. Check Norton's projections. John has a large database of numbers (historical and seasonal) that he relies on to make his projections. He knows about how many solo and assisted tackles a team is likely to get, he's got a running database of how each teams players are dividing their tackles and he relies on Doug Drinen's matchup analyzer to see how other defenses divide their tackle up against each offense. There's significant variability in the 40-55 opportunities a week sample size and some gut feel involved based on new injuries, other trends, etc. But, while I'm clearly biased here, I've been around John for nearly 15 years and think is judgment and detail is very good. If he's projecting someone significantly differently than you've expected, look for a reason why. You may still feel you're right (and be right ). 2. Check the Thursday Matchup Spreadsheet. This tool won't be humming at full strength until we get a few games into the season, but it's an excellent look at how many tackle opportunities a defense has had, how many tackle opportunities an offense is allowing, whether the opps are run or pass heavy, etc. It may confirm or call into question your first thought about a given matchup.3. Check Drinen's Matchup Anaylzer tool (linked on the site map tab and in a pinned topic in the AC Forum). That tool allows you to check how every OLB has done against X offense in Y season. You may find that the matchup sheet suggested that a team is a poor matchup, but that John's projected a guy highly anyway. That may be because there's something about the offensive matchup that favors a given position.Having written all of that, you may be thinking that this is going to be overwhelming and paralysis by over-analysis. And you may be right. In which case, I've two suggestions. First, get as many studs as you can on your roster at the expense of your depth and don't worry about it any more. I'm only being somewhat facetious there. Second, just go with your gut. Once you get a handle on many of your players and get used to judging matchups, your first instinct will very often be right.Doing a post-mortem on the Polamalu and VDB situations could be another long discussion. In general, variability and volatility are the rule, not the exception, at the DL and DB positions. I'm not sure I agree with the VDB over Suggs call, and the difference in the projections was significant on a numerical basis, though maybe not outside a margin of error. The Titans sacked Roethlisberger four times and hit him on many others. Had the Steelers chosen to double team the DTs rather than chip VDB or brought a fifth pass rusher in the second half, VDBs line could have looked much different. If you're interested in going through the process with those DBs (and LBs), post a thread in the AC forum with matchups (and the projections if you want) and I'll be happy to provide a second opinion.

Excellent post!!!