Rashard Mendenhall - How da mighty have fallen! (1 Viewer)

[The Moz]

Wasn't long ago Mendy was being touted as the the greatest back in the Draft. More people than not had him above McFadden in their pre season rankings ( pre - pre season ). Now in many case he is the 9th!!! rookie RB taken in recent redrafts! WOW

McFadden

Stewart

KSmith

Forte

R.Rice

FJones

Slaton

CJohnson

in Some cases ever Hightower

picked over Mendenhall - and he has yet to even take an NFL regular season game carry.

Granted I do not think Mendenhall is a great back and poses far less a threat to Parker than people think but jeebus man he is going really late and has to be getting solid value right now in later drafts.

 

[Wildman]

I'm sure Tatum Bell and Cedric Benson were taken ahead of future starters as well. He should be solid value. There's no doubt he can run. His ball protection skills need refinement.

 

[The Moz]

I'm sure Tatum Bell and Cedric Benson were taken ahead of future starters as well. He should be solid value. There's no doubt he can run. His ball protection skills need refinement.

thats my point - He has really ran yet an already he is tossed in the fantasy scrap heap with likes of Bell(still waiting to be benificiary of a solid ploy motivate tatum ) and Benson.

 

[reg]

Most of the speculation before was referring to dynasty leagues. In redraft his value is lower because he of his situation.

 

[JPeso]

Most of the speculation before was referring to dynasty leagues. In redraft his value is lower because he of his situation.

Correct. I'd still rather Mendenhall over the other two in a dynasty format.

 

[The Moz]

In redraft his value is lower because he of his situation.

Dude it don't get a lot lower than where his value is! He was going 7-8 round a few months ago now the end of drafts if even drafted.

 

[fruity pebbles]

in a dynasty i still like him the best long term. His situation is a negative in the near term but looking 2-3 years out, i think that will turn into a positive as the Steelers are one of the best teams for a young back to go to.

 

[reg]

I think injury to FWP and his value this year goes right back up to the top or darn near there.

 

[SR388]

Reading The Woz's posts make my head hurt.

I haven't been a huge fan of Mendenhall, but I'm not usually a big fan of drafting rookies in the first place. I did take Felix Jones late, but I think he gets the benifit of having all that other talent around him. I got him pegged for about 400 yards and 3 TD's unless Parker gets hurt.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Regarding the fumbling issue - remember that Ahman Green and Tiki Barber were both fumblers early in their careers.

They got it worked out.

 

[steelcityman]

Fallen? He's a solid #2 RB for the Steelers. He'll get touches, and once he proves he can handle the rock better, he'll get goal line carries.

 

[2nice]

Willie Parker is in good shape and it sounds like the steeler nation have decided to stick with him pretty heavily. The fumbling issue simply causes distrust. It is going to lose some of the goal line carries that he was expected to get. I understand that the fumbling issue can be resolved, but it is going to take a while to earn the trust back. Pitt is not going to get all the way to the goal line to watch Rashard fumble the rock.

 

[treat88]

In a redraft, Mendenhall is as solid a handcuff as there is.

In a dynasty league, I'd still take him #3 after Stewart, and McFadden.

 

[CrossEyed]

The people who thought Mendenhall was going to take over for FWP this season were delusional. RM will someday be the feature back for the Steelers, which gives him good value in a dynasty/keeper league. But in a redraft he's only valuable as a handcuff to Parker.

 

[Franknbeans]

-- Steelers RBBC Watch --

Wed Sep 3, 2008 --from FFMastermind.com

The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports Steelers HC Mike Tomlin strongly hinted that first-round draft pick RB Rashard Mendenhall will be the team's short-yardage back if the fumbling problems that plagued him during the preseason do not carry over to the regular season. Mendenhall, assuming he takes care of what Tomlin calls "ball security" issues, should also take some carries from RB Willie Parker in the base offense. Parker averaged 329 carries the past two seasons, and the Steelers want to lighten his workload. The reason for that has little to do with the fact that Parker is less than a year removed from the first serious injury of his football career. "He appears to be extremely healthy," Tomlin said. "I know he's in great spirits. I know he's looking forward to leading this football team in ways that he always does." Parker, who signed with the Steelers in 2004 after an undistinguished career at the University of North Carolina, has led the team in rushing for three consecutive seasons. Parker's broken fibula from last season didn't keep him out of any offseason practices, and any questions about how Parker would hold up after getting hit in live action were answered over the last month. The 5-foot-10, 209-pounder played in all four of the Steelers' preseason games and showed Tomlin enough, even though he logged only 18 carries.

 

[T Bell]

Most of the speculation before was referring to dynasty leagues. In redraft his value is lower because he of his situation.

Agreed, however I have been a bit taken aback by his surprising lack of readiness this year. I was one who was pretty high on him and was considering taking him in dynasty at 1.02. I opted for Stewart because I trusted his size a little more, but thought that the two were both more or less equally ready to start in the NFL. I now think Stewart is ahead of Mendy.

 

[One]

No problem, my league gives pts for BMI.

 

[Raider Nation]

I grabbed him in dynasty after Stew and DMac were off the board.

I used to love having a Steeler RB, all the way back to Barry Foster. But I'm not sure about that OL after losing Faneca.

 

[Tex Goldstein]

The people who thought Mendenhall was going to take over for FWP this season were delusional. RM will someday be the feature back for the Steelers, which gives him good value in a dynasty/keeper league. But in a redraft he's only valuable as a handcuff to Parker.

this year Parker will bet back to the mid-to-high single digits in TDs and be a good value for the peeps who drafted him. 2 TDs in 321 carries was an outlier low, just as 13 TDs in 337 carries was n outlier high the year before. Parker has shown he can score, and his TD numbers should be somewheres in between the extremes of the last 2 year, imo

 

[Banger]

The people who thought Mendenhall was going to take over for FWP this season were delusional. RM will someday be the feature back for the Steelers, which gives him good value in a dynasty/keeper league. But in a redraft he's only valuable as a handcuff to Parker.

this year Parker will bet back to the mid-to-high single digits in TDs and be a good value for the peeps who drafted him. 2 TDs in 321 carries was an outlier low, just as 13 TDs in 337 carries was n outlier high the year before. Parker has shown he can score, and his TD numbers should be somewheres in between the extremes of the last 2 year, imo

Why? Their line will probably be worse and there's a good chance that Mendenhall will take some/most of the goal line looks.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

No problem, my league gives pts for BMI.

That is damn near sig worthy.

 

[infantsam]

The people who thought Mendenhall was going to take over for FWP this season were delusional. RM will someday be the feature back for the Steelers, which gives him good value in a dynasty/keeper league. But in a redraft he's only valuable as a handcuff to Parker.

this year Parker will bet back to the mid-to-high single digits in TDs and be a good value for the peeps who drafted him. 2 TDs in 321 carries was an outlier low, just as 13 TDs in 337 carries was n outlier high the year before. Parker has shown he can score, and his TD numbers should be somewheres in between the extremes of the last 2 year, imo

Why? Their line will probably be worse and there's a good chance that Mendenhall will take some/most of the goal line looks.

Because the overall offense is good - so he gets in scoring position. Pittsburgh should have a winning season and likely will make the playoffsIt's no stretch to expect 10-15 rush TD for P Burgh this year - and 20+ pass TD

They may stall and kick a few more FG's - but they still will get near those numbers unless there is catastrophic injuries etc. And Willie should have no issue getting his share.

Aside from bad luck, injuries, etc - he should get over 1000 yards - another 2-400 rec yards - and 6-10 TD's. Any other prediction is based on something else like injuries, a weird progression of terrible weather, or other non most likely events.

As far as the OL - it's an issue but not like you think. Wilie's speed makes a 2 yd run off tackle 4-5 yards quite often - he only needs a lil space not a gaping hole up the gut. That can be created with a good passing game and some good playcalling.

He fell FAR in the 2 drafts i was part of - and could easily out do his ADP especially if you reward distance on scores and he rips off a few long TD's.

 

[CrossEyed]

The people who thought Mendenhall was going to take over for FWP this season were delusional. RM will someday be the feature back for the Steelers, which gives him good value in a dynasty/keeper league. But in a redraft he's only valuable as a handcuff to Parker.

this year Parker will bet back to the mid-to-high single digits in TDs and be a good value for the peeps who drafted him. 2 TDs in 321 carries was an outlier low, just as 13 TDs in 337 carries was n outlier high the year before. Parker has shown he can score, and his TD numbers should be somewheres in between the extremes of the last 2 year, imo

Why? Their line will probably be worse and there's a good chance that Mendenhall will take some/most of the goal line looks.

1) Their line can't be much worse than it played last year.2) Mendenhall will be utilized, but I just can't see him getting all of the goal line carries.

3) Parker's speed should get him at least 4-5 TDs from longer distances. 2 TDs for a back like him last year was most likely an anomaly.

 

[davearm]

The people who thought Mendenhall was going to take over for FWP this season were delusional. RM will someday be the feature back for the Steelers, which gives him good value in a dynasty/keeper league. But in a redraft he's only valuable as a handcuff to Parker.

this year Parker will bet back to the mid-to-high single digits in TDs and be a good value for the peeps who drafted him. 2 TDs in 321 carries was an outlier low, just as 13 TDs in 337 carries was n outlier high the year before. Parker has shown he can score, and his TD numbers should be somewheres in between the extremes of the last 2 year, imo

Why? Their line will probably be worse and there's a good chance that Mendenhall will take some/most of the goal line looks.

Following up on the point that 2 TDs in 321 carries is an anomalyata Dominator says in the last 10 years, there have been 93 RBs with 300+ carries in a season.

Only 7 of these 93 had fewer than 5 TDs.

Meanwhile 6 of these 93 had 20 or more TDs.

The average across the 93 was 10.4 TDs. Median is 10.

Parker's 13 in '06 was a tad high. His 2 in '07 was extremely low.

Now whether or not you're onboard with another 300 carries in '08 is another matter, but if that happens (or even comes close to happening) then Parker's TDs should rebound nicely.

 

[JamesTheScot]

Because the overall offense is good - so he gets in scoring position. Pittsburgh should have a winning season and likely will make the playoffsIt's no stretch to expect 10-15 rush TD for P Burgh this year - and 20+ pass TDThey may stall and kick a few more FG's - but they still will get near those numbers unless there is catastrophic injuries etc. And Willie should have no issue getting his share.Aside from bad luck, injuries, etc - he should get over 1000 yards - another 2-400 rec yards - and 6-10 TD's. Any other prediction is based on something else like injuries, a weird progression of terrible weather, or other non most likely events.As far as the OL - it's an issue but not like you think. Wilie's speed makes a 2 yd run off tackle 4-5 yards quite often - he only needs a lil space not a gaping hole up the gut. That can be created with a good passing game and some good playcalling.He fell FAR in the 2 drafts i was part of - and could easily out do his ADP especially if you reward distance on scores and he rips off a few long TD's.

If he scores 5 more TD's this season, that impacts his PPG significantly and puts him up there with R.Bush in solid RB2 position. I don't think 7 TD's is unreasonable for him. I think he's been undervalued.

 

[Banger]

The people who thought Mendenhall was going to take over for FWP this season were delusional. RM will someday be the feature back for the Steelers, which gives him good value in a dynasty/keeper league. But in a redraft he's only valuable as a handcuff to Parker.

this year Parker will bet back to the mid-to-high single digits in TDs and be a good value for the peeps who drafted him. 2 TDs in 321 carries was an outlier low, just as 13 TDs in 337 carries was n outlier high the year before. Parker has shown he can score, and his TD numbers should be somewheres in between the extremes of the last 2 year, imo

Why? Their line will probably be worse and there's a good chance that Mendenhall will take some/most of the goal line looks.

Following up on the point that 2 TDs in 321 carries is an anomalyata Dominator says in the last 10 years, there have been 93 RBs with 300+ carries in a season.

Only 7 of these 93 had fewer than 5 TDs.

Meanwhile 6 of these 93 had 20 or more TDs.

The average across the 93 was 10.4 TDs. Median is 10.

Parker's 13 in '06 was a tad high. His 2 in '07 was extremely low.

Now whether or not you're onboard with another 300 carries in '08 is another matter, but if that happens (or even comes close to happening) then Parker's TDs should rebound nicely.

I don't dispute the 2 TD's for that amt of carries is an abnormality. As you mentioned I don't think Parker will get 300 carries again, thus the drafting of Mendenhall. Given the fact that there's a good chance that Mendenhall will get his number called early to get some goal line action (whether he is successful and can hang onto the ball will determine the role going forward) I think it would be HIGHLY optimistic that he'd get double digit TD's, let alone 8-9. I think 5-7 is much more likely. my bad...I don't know why but when I initially read your post I thought you were calling for low double digit td's.....nevermind.......

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Regarding the fumbling issue - remember that Ahman Green and Tiki Barber were both fumblers early in their careers.They got it worked out.

portis too. he had a 3 fumble game in preseason and everyone drafted mike bell anderson and portis reeled of 3 tds week 1.