Ok with all the talk about rice losing receptions to boldin and chris johnson not having to share the load or lose td's to a vulture this is for you.
Let's start with Joe Flacco. Last year he threw for 3637 yrds and attempted 499 passes and completed 315. Of those 315 passes completed 78 went to rice, 73 to mason, 53 to heap, 34 to washington, 34 to clayton, 21 to mcclain, 15 to mcgahee with the remaining 7 going to the likes of smith, jones, lawerence and oher.
Now most this year are planning on the ravens throwing to their recievers more with the addition of boldin and stallworth (now injured). Now Flacco threw the ball 499 times last year, for this argument I will add another 48 pass attempts for this season. His completion percentage was 63.1%. Now while I think he is getting better as QB i don't see his completion % going higher than 66% at the most. So at 547 pass attempts and a completion percentage of 66% he would complete 361 passes this season.
Now let's distribute those 361 passes to the rb's, wr's and tight ends.
We will use high end receptions count for this assuming they all stay healthy. Boldin catches 90, mason 80, 60 to heap,pita and dickson, 20 going to washington,clayton and stallworth.
That leaves 116 receptions to distribute to the rb's. We will give mcclain and rice 20 reception a piece. Which leaves 76 to got to ray rice which puts him right at last years numbers.
Now this is where the addition of boldin his going to help ray rice achieve that number one status in ppr. With boldin, mason and heap teams are not going to stack the box against the ravens. Think of the holes that were created by that line in the rushing game last year with washington and clayton opposite of mason. Now insert boldin who will command 1000% more respect than washington and clayton from secondaires and linebackers. Ray rice avg. 5.3 yards per carry last year and I do not see why that number will not climb to 5.6 or 5.7 this year.
The real beauty in the boldin acquisition is in the short passing game, i.e rb to the flats, dump offs and screens. With defenses not stacking the box and having to roll a saftey over towards boldin, the middle of the field is going to be wide slam open where rice can do the most damage. Oh and the fact that boldin goes hard on down field blocking it's a recipe for greatness. A higher ypc and more chances for td's is what this is leading up to.
And now on to CJ.
I am not going to give his stats because we all now they were amazing but they will not be close to what he did last year. The only thing I will say is that every defense that he plays against is going to have one mission and one mission only, make Vince Young beat us. CJ is special I am not denying that but there is no way he does what he did last year. Vy is not a polished passer, bottom line. Defenses will not let CJ beat them and while it may come at a cost. Possiably VY's scrambling ability and maybe even a few good passing games, it will NOT be because of CJ's legs.
Anyway that's my take on the ppr #1 running back this year. Ray Rice is every bit as talented as CJ, they are just different styles and one is in a lot better offensive situation. Have a great season and when you have that number one pick in you ppr leagues, trade down to the 3rd or 4th spot, get some compensation and roll with rice.
Let's start with Joe Flacco. Last year he threw for 3637 yrds and attempted 499 passes and completed 315. Of those 315 passes completed 78 went to rice, 73 to mason, 53 to heap, 34 to washington, 34 to clayton, 21 to mcclain, 15 to mcgahee with the remaining 7 going to the likes of smith, jones, lawerence and oher.
Now most this year are planning on the ravens throwing to their recievers more with the addition of boldin and stallworth (now injured). Now Flacco threw the ball 499 times last year, for this argument I will add another 48 pass attempts for this season. His completion percentage was 63.1%. Now while I think he is getting better as QB i don't see his completion % going higher than 66% at the most. So at 547 pass attempts and a completion percentage of 66% he would complete 361 passes this season.
Now let's distribute those 361 passes to the rb's, wr's and tight ends.
We will use high end receptions count for this assuming they all stay healthy. Boldin catches 90, mason 80, 60 to heap,pita and dickson, 20 going to washington,clayton and stallworth.
That leaves 116 receptions to distribute to the rb's. We will give mcclain and rice 20 reception a piece. Which leaves 76 to got to ray rice which puts him right at last years numbers.
Now this is where the addition of boldin his going to help ray rice achieve that number one status in ppr. With boldin, mason and heap teams are not going to stack the box against the ravens. Think of the holes that were created by that line in the rushing game last year with washington and clayton opposite of mason. Now insert boldin who will command 1000% more respect than washington and clayton from secondaires and linebackers. Ray rice avg. 5.3 yards per carry last year and I do not see why that number will not climb to 5.6 or 5.7 this year.
The real beauty in the boldin acquisition is in the short passing game, i.e rb to the flats, dump offs and screens. With defenses not stacking the box and having to roll a saftey over towards boldin, the middle of the field is going to be wide slam open where rice can do the most damage. Oh and the fact that boldin goes hard on down field blocking it's a recipe for greatness. A higher ypc and more chances for td's is what this is leading up to.
And now on to CJ.
I am not going to give his stats because we all now they were amazing but they will not be close to what he did last year. The only thing I will say is that every defense that he plays against is going to have one mission and one mission only, make Vince Young beat us. CJ is special I am not denying that but there is no way he does what he did last year. Vy is not a polished passer, bottom line. Defenses will not let CJ beat them and while it may come at a cost. Possiably VY's scrambling ability and maybe even a few good passing games, it will NOT be because of CJ's legs.
Anyway that's my take on the ppr #1 running back this year. Ray Rice is every bit as talented as CJ, they are just different styles and one is in a lot better offensive situation. Have a great season and when you have that number one pick in you ppr leagues, trade down to the 3rd or 4th spot, get some compensation and roll with rice.
You become a #1 FF RB by scoring points for your fantasy owners. I doubt one ever has with fewer than 200 carries or so, but I'm sure I don't know.What I do know, is that no RB with any kind of workload has ever run for 5.7 ypc. CJ last year had arguably the most amazing year in the history of running the ball. He needed to break off a season's worth of 50 yard carries to do it. And he still didn't make it that high. The next most amazing number in NFL history is like 5.2.The point is that you don't need to worry about picking out curtains. The more important point is that if you're going to sell something like this by breaking down the numbers, you can't afford to be completely ignorant of professional football history and expect to be taken seriously.
You become a #1 FF RB by scoring points for your fantasy owners. I doubt one ever has with fewer than 200 carries or so, but I'm sure I don't know.What I do know, is that no RB with any kind of workload has ever run for 5.7 ypc. CJ last year had arguably the most amazing year in the history of running the ball. He needed to break off a season's worth of 50 yard carries to do it. And he still didn't make it that high. The next most amazing number in NFL history is like 5.2.The point is that you don't need to worry about picking out curtains. The more important point is that if you're going to sell something like this by breaking down the numbers, you can't afford to be completely ignorant of professional football history and expect to be taken seriously.
You become a #1 FF RB by scoring points for your fantasy owners. I doubt one ever has with fewer than 200 carries or so, but I'm sure I don't know.
You become a #1 FF RB by scoring points for your fantasy owners. I doubt one ever has with fewer than 200 carries or so, but I'm sure I don't know.
