RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (2 Viewers)

[Willie Mays Hayes]

but he clearly didn’t look as good as Montgomery with his red zone carries last year

Completely disagree with this and no offense but I think you’re only saying this because of the size difference between the two. Because I saw Gibbs be extremely effective at the GL last year and even demonstrated power well beyond what you’d normally associate with a 200 pound back in addition to his lightning quickness.

Again, I like Gibbs and I’m not critical of any part of his game. But, he wasn’t as efficient as Montgomery the closer they got to the goal line in 2024. I just happen to think Campbell doesn’t want to give Gibbs these punishing carries down at the goal line if he has a healthy Montgomery who has proven how effective he is at this part of the field. Gibbs got more work at the goal line after Montgomery’s injury by default but this is where I think the TD regression happens in 2025 if they have two healthy backs.



Inside 20

Gibbs 49 att, 141 yds, 2.9 YPA, 10 TD

Montgomery 49 att, 161 yds, 3.3 YPA, 12 TD



Inside 10

Gibbs 25 att, 49 yds, 2.0 YPA, 9 TD

Montgomery 33 att, 76 yds, 2.3 YPA, 11 TD




Inside 5

Gibbs 16 att, 19 yds, 1.2 YPA, 8 TD

Montgomery 17 att, 25 yds, 1.5 YPA, 8 TD

 

[Zeppelin]

but he clearly didn’t look as good as Montgomery with his red zone carries last year

Completely disagree with this and no offense but I think you’re only saying this because of the size difference between the two. Because I saw Gibbs be extremely effective at the GL last year and even demonstrated power well beyond what you’d normally associate with a 200 pound back in addition to his lightning quickness.

Again, I like Gibbs and I’m not critical of any part of his game. But, he wasn’t as efficient as Montgomery the closer they got to the goal line in 2024. I just happen to think Campbell doesn’t want to give Gibbs these punishing carries down at the goal line if he has a healthy Montgomery who has proven how effective he is at this part of the field. Gibbs got more work at the goal line after Montgomery’s injury by default but this is where I think the TD regression happens in 2025 if they have two healthy backs.



Inside 20

Gibbs 49 att, 141 yds, 2.9 YPA, 10 TD

Montgomery 49 att, 161 yds, 3.3 YPA, 12 TD



Inside 10

Gibbs 25 att, 49 yds, 2.0 YPA, 9 TD

Montgomery 33 att, 76 yds, 2.3 YPA, 11 TD




Inside 5

Gibbs 16 att, 19 yds, 1.2 YPA, 8 TD

Montgomery 17 att, 25 yds, 1.5 YPA, 8 TD

Given the small sample size, the difference in those numbers are minimal if not almost identical.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Gibbs was as interesting a player to own last year as any player I've ever had, just because the 1st quarter is Monty's. So you start to worry about game flow from the get go. Yet invariably, Gibbs would ALWAYS wind up productive...some game more than others, but he was stinker-free; 9.1 points was his worst game of the year.

So Week 1...game flow = , Week 18...game flow =

 

[JoeJoe88]

but he clearly didn’t look as good as Montgomery with his red zone carries last year

Completely disagree with this and no offense but I think you’re only saying this because of the size difference between the two. Because I saw Gibbs be extremely effective at the GL last year and even demonstrated power well beyond what you’d normally associate with a 200 pound back in addition to his lightning quickness.

Again, I like Gibbs and I’m not critical of any part of his game. But, he wasn’t as efficient as Montgomery the closer they got to the goal line in 2024. I just happen to think Campbell doesn’t want to give Gibbs these punishing carries down at the goal line if he has a healthy Montgomery who has proven how effective he is at this part of the field. Gibbs got more work at the goal line after Montgomery’s injury by default but this is where I think the TD regression happens in 2025 if they have two healthy backs.



Inside 20

Gibbs 49 att, 141 yds, 2.9 YPA, 10 TD

Montgomery 49 att, 161 yds, 3.3 YPA, 12 TD



Inside 10

Gibbs 25 att, 49 yds, 2.0 YPA, 9 TD

Montgomery 33 att, 76 yds, 2.3 YPA, 11 TD




Inside 5

Gibbs 16 att, 19 yds, 1.2 YPA, 8 TD

Montgomery 17 att, 25 yds, 1.5 YPA, 8 TD

I agree Gibbs is due for some td regression, but I push back on the notion he’s not as effective at the goal line as Montgomery, and these numbers don’t really prove anything to the contrary imo.

I can remember Gibbs having many 1-yard tds last season. Hard to average a good ypc when you can only fall forward one yard and score.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Hard to average a good ypc when you can only fall forward one yard and score.

Right, and to a certain extent this also includes short yardage plays on 3rd and 4th downs from other places on the field.

 

[Da Guru]

but he clearly didn’t look as good as Montgomery with his red zone carries last year

Completely disagree with this and no offense but I think you’re only saying this because of the size difference between the two. Because I saw Gibbs be extremely effective at the GL last year and even demonstrated power well beyond what you’d normally associate with a 200 pound back in addition to his lightning quickness.

Again, I like Gibbs and I’m not critical of any part of his game. But, he wasn’t as efficient as Montgomery the closer they got to the goal line in 2024. I just happen to think Campbell doesn’t want to give Gibbs these punishing carries down at the goal line if he has a healthy Montgomery who has proven how effective he is at this part of the field. Gibbs got more work at the goal line after Montgomery’s injury by default but this is where I think the TD regression happens in 2025 if they have two healthy backs.



Inside 20

Gibbs 49 att, 141 yds, 2.9 YPA, 10 TD

Montgomery 49 att, 161 yds, 3.3 YPA, 12 TD



Inside 10

Gibbs 25 att, 49 yds, 2.0 YPA, 9 TD

Montgomery 33 att, 76 yds, 2.3 YPA, 11 TD




Inside 5

Gibbs 16 att, 19 yds, 1.2 YPA, 8 TD

Montgomery 17 att, 25 yds, 1.5 YPA, 8 TD

This is the NFL where every carry by a RB is punishing. Don`t see many RBs get injured on goal line carries.

 

[travdogg]

I think Gibbs may have been the best RB in the NFL last season, he just had less work than Barkley/Henry.

Having said that, no offense is due for more regression than the Lions, they scored the 6th most TDs in NFL history and they lost 2 pro bowl interior OL, and their OC. The guys most likely to feel that regression are Goff, Gibbs, and Amon-Ra. I've been pretty all-in on Gibbs/Amon-Ra the last 2 years, I'll have zero shares of either, this year, because they are both going a few spots too high in my opinion.

 

[msudaisy26]

I think Gibbs may have been the best RB in the NFL last season, he just had less work than Barkley/Henry.

Having said that, no offense is due for more regression than the Lions, they scored the 6th most TDs in NFL history and they lost 2 pro bowl interior OL, and their OC. The guys most likely to feel that regression are Goff, Gibbs, and Amon-Ra. I've been pretty all-in on Gibbs/Amon-Ra the last 2 years, I'll have zero shares of either, this year, because they are both going a few spots too high in my opinion.

I agree with most of this except for ARSB. He is more of a short area target guy and his regression is already baked into his price. I actually think Jamo is the one with some regression because I don't think the Lions will have as many big/gadget plays as last season.

 

[travdogg]

I think Gibbs may have been the best RB in the NFL last season, he just had less work than Barkley/Henry.

Having said that, no offense is due for more regression than the Lions, they scored the 6th most TDs in NFL history and they lost 2 pro bowl interior OL, and their OC. The guys most likely to feel that regression are Goff, Gibbs, and Amon-Ra. I've been pretty all-in on Gibbs/Amon-Ra the last 2 years, I'll have zero shares of either, this year, because they are both going a few spots too high in my opinion.

I agree with most of this except for ARSB. He is more of a short area target guy and his regression is already baked into his price. I actually think Jamo is the one with some regression because I don't think the Lions will have as many big/gadget plays as last season.

Is regression baked into Amon-Ra's price? He hasn't fallen out of round 1 in any draft I've seen. On average Gibbs has been going #5 overall and Amon-Ra #10 overall.

Jameson Williams is going WR29 right now. I agree he'll experience regression on efficiency, but he was WR22 last season, despite a couple missed games. It feels more baked into his price.

In general, I think the Lions, Bucs, and Bills are all really strong regression candidates.

 

[msudaisy26]

I think Gibbs may have been the best RB in the NFL last season, he just had less work than Barkley/Henry.

Having said that, no offense is due for more regression than the Lions, they scored the 6th most TDs in NFL history and they lost 2 pro bowl interior OL, and their OC. The guys most likely to feel that regression are Goff, Gibbs, and Amon-Ra. I've been pretty all-in on Gibbs/Amon-Ra the last 2 years, I'll have zero shares of either, this year, because they are both going a few spots too high in my opinion.

I agree with most of this except for ARSB. He is more of a short area target guy and his regression is already baked into his price. I actually think Jamo is the one with some regression because I don't think the Lions will have as many big/gadget plays as last season.

Is regression baked into Amon-Ra's price? He hasn't fallen out of round 1 in any draft I've seen. On average Gibbs has been going #5 overall and Amon-Ra #10 overall.

Jameson Williams is going WR29 right now. I agree he'll experience regression on efficiency, but he was WR22 last season, despite a couple missed games. It feels more baked into his price.

In general, I think the Lions, Bucs, and Bills are all really strong regression candidates.

I have seen him from 8 to 14. A guy that is as consistent as ARSB has been for the last few years going from wr 6 to wr 9 is a slight discount. Probably because of the reasons we stated above.

 

[bluemanfoo]

I think Gibbs may have been the best RB in the NFL last season, he just had less work than Barkley/Henry.

Having said that, no offense is due for more regression than the Lions, they scored the 6th most TDs in NFL history and they lost 2 pro bowl interior OL, and their OC. The guys most likely to feel that regression are Goff, Gibbs, and Amon-Ra. I've been pretty all-in on Gibbs/Amon-Ra the last 2 years, I'll have zero shares of either, this year, because they are both going a few spots too high in my opinion.

I agree with most of this except for ARSB. He is more of a short area target guy and his regression is already baked into his price. I actually think Jamo is the one with some regression because I don't think the Lions will have as many big/gadget plays as last season.

Is regression baked into Amon-Ra's price? He hasn't fallen out of round 1 in any draft I've seen. On average Gibbs has been going #5 overall and Amon-Ra #10 overall.

Jameson Williams is going WR29 right now. I agree he'll experience regression on efficiency, but he was WR22 last season, despite a couple missed games. It feels more baked into his price.

In general, I think the Lions, Bucs, and Bills are all really strong regression candidates.

Gibbs seems like a prime regression candidate. But, as a Lions homer, I know the Lions want Jamo to reach another level this year. Have great RBs, a great slot receiver, great TE, and drafted Jamo to be that great deep threat. But as long as Jamo/LaPorta don't steal too many targets, I think Amon-Ra will be fine. I mean, he broke out and went on a tear the the last six games of his rookie season, when Dan Campbell was calling the plays, and there was not much else to threaten the defense. Amon-Ra is as reliable as it gets.

 

[menobrown]

I think Gibbs may have been the best RB in the NFL last season, he just had less work than Barkley/Henry.

Having said that, no offense is due for more regression than the Lions, they scored the 6th most TDs in NFL history and they lost 2 pro bowl interior OL, and their OC. The guys most likely to feel that regression are Goff, Gibbs, and Amon-Ra. I've been pretty all-in on Gibbs/Amon-Ra the last 2 years, I'll have zero shares of either, this year, because they are both going a few spots too high in my opinion.

I agree with most of this except for ARSB. He is more of a short area target guy and his regression is already baked into his price. I actually think Jamo is the one with some regression because I don't think the Lions will have as many big/gadget plays as last season.

Is regression baked into Amon-Ra's price? He hasn't fallen out of round 1 in any draft I've seen. On average Gibbs has been going #5 overall and Amon-Ra #10 overall.

Jameson Williams is going WR29 right now. I agree he'll experience regression on efficiency, but he was WR22 last season, despite a couple missed games. It feels more baked into his price.

In general, I think the Lions, Bucs, and Bills are all really strong regression candidates.

I have seen him from 8 to 14. A guy that is as consistent as ARSB has been for the last few years going from wr 6 to wr 9 is a slight discount. Probably because of the reasons we stated above.

Yeah, regression is now priced into ARSB. His ADP has fallen since Ben Johnson left and in my last two non-BB drafts he went as WR8 in both at 2.4 and 2.3(to me). FWIW these are TEP leagues and two TE's went ahead of him in both drafts, no QB's, but even if you took the TE's out he'd obviously still be a second round guy.

Seems to me like the two players fantasy people are most concerned with losing Ben Johnson and some of the other changes is David Montgomery and ARSB. Both just off a little. Laporta and Gibbs have held firm.

 

[Faust]

Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs: I'm being split out wide 'way more' than the past two years

 

[starks]

If he never once runs between the tackles I am fine with that, I will take WR stats for my RB. It will likely keep him healthier throughout his career while extending it in the process which would be great for a RB. What if this is type of player is the wave of the future for the position? 15 years ago almost every QB was a statue, now look at the QB landscape. Maybe the Lions are just light years ahead of everyone else.

*I was on a roll until that last sentence*

Dave Meggett, Darren Sproles et al on line 1 please.

True, just like Randall Cunningham it just took the rest of the league to catch up. Unless your roster is saturated with young stud RBs Gibbs should be locked in to the 1.02. Not wild about anyone's landing spot including a lackluster WR class.

Way to rich for me to have him locked in at 1.02

I'd rather take a flyer on some of the qbs, some who will probably have more rushing yards than him

I am not talking about superflex

If he never once runs between the tackles I am fine with that, I will take WR stats for my RB. It will likely keep him healthier throughout his career while extending it in the process which would be great for a RB. What if this is type of player is the wave of the future for the position? 15 years ago almost every QB was a statue, now look at the QB landscape. Maybe the Lions are just light years ahead of everyone else.

*I was on a roll until that last sentence*

Dave Meggett, Darren Sproles et al on line 1 please.

True, just like Randall Cunningham it just took the rest of the league to catch up. Unless your roster is saturated with young stud RBs Gibbs should be locked in to the 1.02. Not wild about anyone's landing spot including a lackluster WR class.

Way to rich for me to have him locked in at 1.02

I'd rather take a flyer on some of the qbs, some who will probably have more rushing yards than him

I am not talking about superflex

Neither am I

Yea, well….good luck with that.

Welp. This aged like cheese lol

 

[kface]

If he never once runs between the tackles I am fine with that, I will take WR stats for my RB. It will likely keep him healthier throughout his career while extending it in the process which would be great for a RB. What if this is type of player is the wave of the future for the position? 15 years ago almost every QB was a statue, now look at the QB landscape. Maybe the Lions are just light years ahead of everyone else.

*I was on a roll until that last sentence*

Dave Meggett, Darren Sproles et al on line 1 please.

True, just like Randall Cunningham it just took the rest of the league to catch up. Unless your roster is saturated with young stud RBs Gibbs should be locked in to the 1.02. Not wild about anyone's landing spot including a lackluster WR class.

Way to rich for me to have him locked in at 1.02

I'd rather take a flyer on some of the qbs, some who will probably have more rushing yards than him

I am not talking about superflex

If he never once runs between the tackles I am fine with that, I will take WR stats for my RB. It will likely keep him healthier throughout his career while extending it in the process which would be great for a RB. What if this is type of player is the wave of the future for the position? 15 years ago almost every QB was a statue, now look at the QB landscape. Maybe the Lions are just light years ahead of everyone else.

*I was on a roll until that last sentence*

Dave Meggett, Darren Sproles et al on line 1 please.

True, just like Randall Cunningham it just took the rest of the league to catch up. Unless your roster is saturated with young stud RBs Gibbs should be locked in to the 1.02. Not wild about anyone's landing spot including a lackluster WR class.

Way to rich for me to have him locked in at 1.02

I'd rather take a flyer on some of the qbs, some who will probably have more rushing yards than him

I am not talking about superflex

Neither am I

Yea, well….good luck with that.

Welp. This aged like cheese lol

Love people that pull up posts from two years for gotcha moments - this board is littered with bad takes. We are all guessing.

I took Stroud and I'm happy with it.

 

[Faust]

NFL Week 1 predictions, fantasy sleepers, upset picks

Excerpt:

Is Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs in line for a huge receiving day against the Packers' zone coverage?

One of my favorite stat splits is the discrepancy between a running back's receiving numbers against man and zone coverage. Backs were targeted on 10% of man coverage dropbacks last season and caught passes on 8% of such dropbacks. But against zone, those same numbers jumped to 18% and 15%, respectively. That's almost doubling the reception rate when facing zone looks!

Well, take a guess who ranked third in receiving yards among running backs and which team ranked second in zone coverage rate last season. That's right, Gibbs and the Packers. He should be set up for a huge day.